The Week That Was: 2013-09-28 (September 28, 2013) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
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Quote of the Week: If an honest man is wrong, after demonstrating that he is wrong, he either stops being wrong or he stops being honest. Anonymous [H/t Tim Ball]
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Number of the Week: 0.065ºC
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THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
IPCC: On Friday, the IPCC released its Summary for Policymakers. The report was not yet complete, it referenced graphs that were not presented and will have to be inserted. Therefore, a side-by-side comparison of the NIPCC and the IPCC reports is premature. However, there are some disturbing omissions. As Roy Spencer points out, estimates of the sensitivity of the climate to increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are missing. Yet, this is the entire political issue. Is the climate sensitive to human emissions of CO2 or not? Does an increase in the molecules of CO2 from 3 to 4 per 10,000 parts of air make a difference in climate?
Further, the report glosses over the fact that there has been no statistically significant rise in surface temperatures for over 16 years. Instead, it asserts a greater certainty in its work than prior reports. It reduced the uncertainty from 10% to 5%, with no empirical basis.
Richard Lindzen writes “The latest IPCC report has truly sunk to level of hilarious incoherence — It is quite amazing to see the contortions the IPCC has to go through in order to keep the international climate agenda going.”
Prior to issuance of the approved report, Steve McIntyre presented an overview on how the IPCC put itself in a mess, rather than properly addressing the hiatus in warming and the associated discrepancy between model projections and observations. He writes: “One cannot help but wonder whether WG1 [the physical science section] Chair Thomas Stocker might not have served the policy community better by spending more time ensuring that the discrepancy between models and observations was properly addressed in the IPCC draft reports, perhaps even highlighting research problems while there was time in the process, than figuring out how IPCC could evade FOI [Freedom of Information] requests.
The purpose of a physical science is to describe nature, and to understand how it works. It is becoming increasingly evident that IPCC science does not describe nature. Yet, the IPCC intensifies its certainty in its work? For these and other comments see Climategate Continued, IPCC Report, and http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5-SPM_Approved27Sep2013.pdf
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NIPCC: The Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) was established analyze peer reviewed research on climate change and report the findings as objectively as possible. The latest reports, Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science and the Summary for Policymakers are available on the web and the full Physical Science report being printed. They are formatted to match as closely as possible the formatting of the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to allow policymakers to make side-by-side comparisons of the reports.
One of the great shortcomings of the IPCC is that it was not set-up to evaluate all the influences on climate, both natural and human. Instead, it was set-up to evaluate only the human influences. This shortcoming should be emphasized in the IPCC reports. However, it is often glossed over.
Often, when exploring business opportunities or new products, private corporations will form two research teams to pursue alternative approaches, say the green team and the red team. The corporations will staff both teams with highly qualified people and give both equal levels of funding. One can think of the IPCC as the green team and the NIPCC as the red team. However, funding levels are vastly different. According to published reports by the US government, the total Federal funding of climate change activities is greater than $150 Billion since Fiscal Year 1993. The small funding of NIPCC is from private contributors who have no influence on the product. The NIPCC reports can be found at: http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
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Support EPA? Although a side-by-side comparison of the two summaries will be presented later, one can examine how the two reports support the EPA’s finding that human greenhouse gas emissions, principally CO2, endanger public health and welfare. When announcing its finding on December 7, 2009, the EPA stated that the finding was based on three lines of scientific evidence, which followed the 2007 IPCC report and US government reports:
1. There is a distinct human fingerprint, “hot spot,” of a pronounced warming trend centered about 10 km (33,000 feet) above the tropics. EPA claims this to be the physical evidence that supports the theory than CO2 emissions are causing significant global warming.
2. Indirect evidence – the late 20th century warming was unusual – unprecedented and dangerous.
3. Climate models are reliable for policy analysis. All these models forecast significant future warming.
Based on the EPA’s finding, government agencies have undertaken calculating the future social costs of carbon dioxide emissions, are attempting to control land use by claiming future floods and dramatic sea level rise, and the EPA announced drastic measures for controlling construction of new power plants, which will effectively prohibit the construction of coal-fired power plants without very expensive, untested technology. Thus, it is important to investigate how solid is the EPA science in light of new, comprehensive, scientific reports on climate change.
1. Hot Spot:
IPCC: The IPCC summary does not discuss the “hot spot”, though it discusses atmospheric temperatures. This is a sharp departure from the 2007 report that discussed the hot spot.
NIPCC: The NIPCC summary specifically rejects the “hot spot” because no one can find it. “Observations from both weather balloon radiosonders and satellite MSU sensors show the opposite, with either flat or decreasing warming trends with increasing height in the atmosphere.” (p.7)
2. 20th Century Warming Was Unusual:
IPCC: The last 30 years is “likely to be the warmest 30-year period in Northern Hemisphere in 1400 years (medium confidence) (SPM-3). However, it also states: “Continental-scale surface temperature reconstructions show, with high confidence, multidecadal periods during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (year 950 to 1250) that were in some regions as warm as in the late 20th century. These regional warm periods did not occur as coherently across regions as the warming in the late 20th century (high confidence). {5.5} (SPM-4)” [The late 20th century global warming was not that unusual and largely confined to the Northern Hemisphere.]
NIPCC: “The glaciological and recent geological records contain numerous examples of ancient temperatures up to 3ºC [about 6ºF], or more, warmer than the peak reported at the end of the twentieth century.” (p.8)
3. Climate Models Are Reliable:
IPCC: “The long-term climate model simulations show a trend in global-mean surface temperature from 1951 to 2012 that agrees with the observed trend (very high confidence). There are, however, differences between simulated and observed trends over periods as short as 10 to 15 years (e.g., 1998 to 2012). {9.4, Box 9.2}” (SPM-10)
NIPCC: “Climate models project an atmospheric warming of at least 0.3 ºC over the past 15 years; in fact, temperature stasis or slight cooling has occurred.” (p.9)
“We conclude that current generation of GCMs [Global Climate Models] are unable to make accurate projections of climate even 10 years ahead, let alone the 100 year period that has been adopted by policy planners. The output of such models should therefore not be used to guide public policy formulation until they have been validated and shown to have predictive value.” (p.7) [boldface in original]
Conclusion:
The IPCC Summary fails to support the critical physical evidence the EPA claimed. It weakly supports the other two lines of evidence, ignoring the fact that surface temperatures have not increased in 16 years. The NIPCC Summary rejects all three lines of evidence the EPA offered.
It is sufficient to say that the EPA endangerment finding was premature, at best. At worst, it is completely wrong. The links to the two reports are provide above.
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MET Model: Independent scientist Nicolas Lewis and Andrew Montford are questioning a possible strong bias in the global climate model use by the UK MET Office. As described by the IPCC, in the climate models the warming influence of CO2 is off-set, in part, by aerosols, minute particles in the atmosphere, such as sulfur dioxide. Among other things, aerosols promote the formation of clouds. Climate alarmists claim that the failure of the atmosphere to warm with increasing CO2 is due to increases in aerosols. Thus, high climate sensitivity to CO2 is offset by high climate sensitivity to aerosols.
Nicolas Lewis examined the procedures used in running the MET models and concluded that the process does not permit the possibility of a low climate sensitivity to both CO2 and aerosols. The MET office has been alerted about the issue and is under review. If correct, then MET model and procedure have a significant built-in warming bias, which may apply to other climate models as well. Certainly, when comparing runs to observations for the tropics, the climate models greatly overestimate the warming. Please see links under Model Issues
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EPA: In Forbes, Larry Bell discusses the recent testimony of EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy before the US House Energy Committee. Repeatedly, she was asked about the 26 objective indicators EPA has on its web site for tracking climate change and how the new regulations on new coal-fired will affect these indicators. She evaded the questions and did not identify any discernible health and welfare benefits from the new regulations. Bell concludes: “the apparent goal of the EPA’s current and proposed greenhouse gas regulations is to persuade the international community, particularly China, India, and other developing nations, to follow the Obama administration’s U.S. leadership over an economic precipice.” See link under EPA and other Regulators on the March
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Secret Science: In Forbes, Geoffrey Kabat discusses EPA’s evasion of a House committee subpoena to produce data justifying EPA regulation of minute air particles (PM2.5, 2.5 micrometers). These regulations are based on two studies, the Harvard Six Cities Study (HSCS) and the American Cancer Society’s Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS II). Citing confidentiality, and other reasons, the EPA has refused to publish or allow public review of these studies. A separate study by Stanley Young and Jesse Xia of the National Institute for Statistical Sciences calls into question the validity of the two secret studies. There is no justification for basing regulations on secret studies, but such is science at the EPA. See links under EPA and other Regulators on the March
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Fred Singer: Although he is traveling in Europe promoting the new NIPCC report, two articles appeared featuring SEPP Chairman S. Fred Singer. One is by him on Washington’s war on coal and the absurdity it involves. The second is an interview of him by Larry Bell on simplistic notions behind the claims of unprecedented sea level rise. See Articles # 1 and #2.
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Heat Engine: Five-time IPCC expert reviewer has a basic tutorial on the climate system as a heat engine. Energy input is mainly short wave radiation from the sun. Energy output is mainly long wave radiation from every surface on the earth and from every level in the atmosphere, including clouds and aerosols. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Number of the Week: 0.065ºC. In an amusing display of mathematics, Luboš Motl calculates that if the atmospheric warming is hiding in the ocean in the layer between 0 to 2000 meters (0-6560 feet), then it would have increased temperatures by 0.065ºC (0.12 ºF) since the 1960s. He reports that the Argo web site has an estimate of 0.06 ºC since the 1960s, assuming the instruments can measure that precisely.
Commenting on the calculations, Judith Curry asks: “So, can anyone figure out why 0.06C is a big deal for the climate? Or how all that heat that is apparently well mixed in the ocean could somehow get into the atmosphere and influence weather/temperatures/rainfall on the land? Or is sequestering heat in the ocean a fortuitous ‘solution’ to the global (surface) warming problem?” See links under Changing Seas.
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ARTICLES:
For the numbered articles below please see this week’s TWTW at: www.sepp.org. The articles are at the end of the pdf.
1. Report from the ‘War on Coal’
By S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, Sep 23, 2013
http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/09/report_from_the_war_on_coal.html
2. Alarmists Are In Way Over Their Heads On Rising Ocean Claims
By Larry Bell, Forbes, Sep 24, 2013
3. Banning Demon Coal
The EPA wants to eliminate this major source of U.S. electric power.
Editorial, WSJ, Sep 24, 2013
4. It’s a Cooked Book
Global warmism and the antiscientific method.
By James Taranto, WSJ, Sep 24, 2013
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NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Climategate Continued
Two Minutes to Midnight
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Sep 24, 2013
http://climateaudit.org/2013/09/24/two-minutes-to-midnight/#more-18392
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
Why We’re Shutting Off Our Comments
Starting today, PopularScience.com will no longer accept comments on new articles. Here’s why.
By Suzanne LaBarre, Popular Science, Sep 24, 2013 [H/t WUWT]
http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2013-09/why-were-shutting-our-comments
NIPCC Report
Heartland Institute climate change panel reveals science the UN suppresses
By Ron Arnold, Washington Examiner, Sep 27, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Independent scientists would have been a more correct headline.]
Back at Ya, IPCC: ‘Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science’ (Part II)
By Paul Driessen, Master Resource, Sep 24, 2013
http://www.masterresource.org/2013/09/climate-change-reconsidered-ii/#more-27714
IPCC Report
IPCC: “We don’t need no stinking climate sensitivity!”
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Sep 27, 2013
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/09/ipcc-we-dont-need-no-stinking-climate-sensitivity/
MIT Climate Scientist Dr. Richard Lindzen Rips UN IPCC Report:
By Marc Morano, Climate Depot, Sep 28, 2013
New IPCC Climate Report Already Obsolete
By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger, WUWT, Sep 27, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/27/new-ipcc-climate-report-already-obsolete-2/
Thoughts on the SPM
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Sep 27, 2013
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/9/27/thoughts-on-the-spm.html
Band-aids Can’t Fix the New IPCC Report
By Patrick Michaels and Paul Knappenberger, CATO, Sep 27, 2013
http://www.cato.org/blog/band-aids-cant-fix-new-ipcc-report
Reactions to IPCC AR5 Summary for Policy Makers
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 27, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/27/reactions-to-ipcc-ar5-summary-for-policy-makers/
AR5 press cuttings
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Sep 27, 2013
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/9/27/ar5-press-cuttings.html
Climate panel set to reiterate bleakest of messages
Greenhouse gas emissions steaming ahead at 3 per cent a year
By John Gibbons, Irish Times, Sep 23, 2013 [H/t WUWT]
The Climate-Change Circus
The IPCC’s fifth assessment report is another politico-scientific document.
By Rupert Darwall, National Review Online, Sep 22, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/359034/climate-change-circus-rupert-darwall
Challenging the Orthodoxy
The Real Climate
By Vincent Gray, SPPI, Sep 25, 2013
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/the_real_climate.html
ENSO and PDO Explain Tropical Average SSTs during 1950-2013
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Sep 26, 2013
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/09/enso-and-pdo-explain-tropical-average-ssts-during-1950-2013/
The IPCC’s belief that nature keeps the climate system energy-stabilized to better than 1 part in 1,000 is a matter of faith, not of physical “first principles”.
On Changing ENSO Conditions: The View from SSM/I
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Sep 24, 2013
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/09/on-changing-enso-conditions-the-view-from-ssmi/
Why the IPCC should never be taken seriously
By Des Moore, Quadrant, Sep 28, 2013
http://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/doomed-planet/2013/09/why-the-ipcc-can-t-be-taken-seriously
When bad news is good
By Rud Istvan, Climate Etc. Sep 24, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/24/when-bad-news-is-good/
Warming Plateau? Climatologists Face Inconvenient Truth
Data shows global temperatures aren’t rising the way climate scientists have predicted. Now the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change faces a problem: publicize these findings and encourage skeptics — or hush up the figures.
By Axel Bojanowski, Olaf Stampf and Gerald Traufetter, Spiegel, Sep 23, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
Trans: Ella Ornstein
17 Year Warming Hiatus Causes Panic Cover Up. IPCC Duplicity Continues
By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Sep 22, 2013
http://drtimball.com/2013/17-year-warming-hiatus-causes-panic-cover-up-ipcc-duplicity-continues/
Research by a bureaucrat is almost guaranteed to be political, nowhere is that more evident than in the IPCC failures. It is exposed by the ugly fact that destroyed their hypothesis.
The Obama administration’s unscientific war on carbon
By H. Leighton Stewart, Daily Caller, Sep 24, 2013
http://dailycaller.com/2013/09/24/the-obama-administrations-unscientific-war-on-carbon/
Defending the Orthodoxy
German Daily Die Welt: “Bureaucrats Refuse To Give Up Climate Catastrophe”…”Warming Much Less Than Expected”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 26, 2013
IPCC AR5 WG1: preemptive indoctrination
Alarmist journalists already know how everyone will react and should react to an unknown report
By Luboš Motl, Reference Frame, Sep 22, 2013
http://motls.blogspot.com/2013/09/ipcc-ar5-wg1-preemptive-indoctrination.html#more
[SEPP Comment: Exposing the IPCC leaks to media it considers friendly.]
Time to Act on Climate Change
By Gina McCarthy, Huffington Post, Sep 20, 2013
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gina-mccarthy/time-to-act-on-climate-change_b_3954969.html
We know that carbon pollution is the most prevalent heat-trapping greenhouse gas, warming our planet and fueling climate change.
[SEPP Comment: By far, water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas.]
By Anne M Stark for LLNL News, Livermore CA (SPX), Sep 25, 2013
Access: The “leaked” IPCC AR5 draft Summary for Policymakers
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 23, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/23/access-the-leaked-ipcc-ar5-draft-summary-for-policymakers/
Don’t sweat fickleness, it’s sun’s fault or something in the water
Graham Lloyd, Australian, Sep 21, 2013 [H/t Stefan Björklund]
Climate sceptics claim warming pause backs their view
By Matt McGrath, BBC, Sep 25, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24233643
Global Warming Slowdown Hinders Climate Treaty Effort
By Alex Morales, Bloomberg, Sep 23, 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-22/global-warming-slowdown-hinders-climate-treaty-effort.html
[SEPP Comment: Why have a treaty?]
Hardly any experts doubt human-caused climate change
By John Cook, Australian, Sep 21, 2013 [H/t Stefan Björklund]
Reforms urged to make UN climate reports shorter, more focused
By Alister Doyle, Reuters, Sep 24, 2013 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
[SEPP Comment: Typical propaganda photo of invisible carbon dioxide darkening the skies.]
We need to cool things down over climate change
It is surely past time to take matters out of the hands of the zealots – on both sides
Editorial, Telegraph, UK, Sep 26, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
The Climate-Industrial Complex
By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, Sep 27, 2013
http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/09/the_climate-industrial_complex.html
Obama & Allies Tell UN to Cover for Lack of Global Warming
By Alex Newman, ICECAP, Sep 24, 2013
What was the IPCC AR4 Most Certain About?
By Roger Pielke Jr, His Blog, Sep 23, 2013
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2013/09/what-was-ipcc-ar4-most-certain-about.html
[SEPP Comment: A review of “certainty” in the last report.]
Global Warming: The BIGGEST LIE Exposed
By Alan Caruba, Warning Signs, Sep 21, 2013
http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com/2013/09/global-warming-biggest-lie-exposed.html
Time for some realism – but IPCC takes baby steps and in the end fails
By Staff Writer, ICECAP, Sep 27, 2013
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/political-climate/time_for_some_realism/
Desperate times in climate alarmism
By Paul Driessen, WUWT, Sep 26, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/26/desperate-times-in-climate-alarmism/
The IPCC Political-Suicide Pill
Politicians who legislate based on the IPCC’s increasingly flawed findings lose their jobs.
By Patrick Michaels, National Review, Sep 26, 2013 [H/t Cooler Heads]
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/359556/ipcc-political-suicide-pill-patrick-j-michaels
Time to end the climate of fear
By Lorrie Goldstein, Toronto Sun, Sep 27, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.torontosun.com/2013/09/26/time-to-end-the-climate-of-fear
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Hans von Storch On Warming Pause: “…Fellow Scientists Are Very Hard-Pressed For An Explanation”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 24, 2013
[SEPP Comment: An account of a German radio broadcast including Hans von Storch, who is concerned about the failure of the globe to warm, and Environmental Minister Harry Lehmann, who produced a booklet pillorying skeptics.]
Seeking a Common Ground
Time for some realism
By Martin Livermore, Scientific Alliance, Sep 27, 2013
http://scientific-alliance.org/scientific-alliance-newsletter/time-some-realism
Climatology’s great dilemma
By Andrew Montford, The Spectator, Sep 23, 2013
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/09/climatologys-great-dilemma/
Five critical questions for the IPCC
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 24, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/24/five-critical-questions-for-the-ipcc/#more-13082
Pause for Thought
By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Sep 23, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/pause-thought/
[SEPP Comment: Exposing the inventing of excuses. If the current pause in temperature increases is caused by cyclical changes in natural influences, then would not similar cyclical changes have caused the late 20th century warming? The real failure in communication by the climate alarmists and the general press is the failure to address the lack of warming as it was becoming evident.]
Climate’s big PR problem
By Margaret Wente, Global and Mail, Sep 24, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/commentary/climates-big-pr-problem/article14491748/
BREAKING! IPCC responds – Josh 239
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Sep 26, 2013
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/9/26/breaking-ipcc-responds-josh-239.html
[SEPP Comment: A bit of humor emphasizing logical fallacies!]
Lowering Standards
95% (?)
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 27, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/27/95/
The president of the prestigious National Academy of Sciences, Ralph Cicerone, and more than a dozen other scientists contacted by the AP said the 95 percent certainty regarding climate change is most similar to the confidence scientists have in the decades’ worth of evidence that cigarettes are deadly.
[SEPP Comment: The once prestigious National Academy of Sciences.]
National Geographic rising sea level prophecy – cause for concern or absurd fairytale?
By Don Easterbrook, WUWT, Sep 25, 2013
Expanding the Orthodoxy
State Should Further Improve Its Reporting on Financial Support to Developing Countries to Meet Future Requirements and Guidelines
By Staff Writers, GAO, Sep 19, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-13-829
Link to full report: Climate Change: State Should Further Improve Its Reporting on Financial Support to Developing Countries to Meet Future Requirements and Guidelines
By Staff Writers, GAO, Sep 2013
http://www.gao.gov/assets/660/657985.pdf
[SEPP Comment: Total funding from FY 2010 to FY 2012 is $7.457 Billion. 80% ($6.1 Billion) for mitigation activities and 20% ($1.4 Billion) for adaptation activities. Keep spending even though global warming has stopped!]
UN plans summit next year to boost odds of 2015 climate pact
By Ben Geman, The Hill, Sep 24, 2013
Questioning European Green
The Crisis in UK Energy Policy has Arrived
By Peter Atherton and Mulu Sun, Liberum Capital, Sep 25, 2013
http://www.liberumcapital.com/pdf/AbwjyzrV.pdf
Global Warming Alarmism Wrecks European Economy
By Jeffrey Collins, Real Clear Politics, Sep 23, 2013
Energy Companies Call for an End to Green Energy “Stealth Taxes”
By Tim Webb, The Times, Via GWPF, Sep 26, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/energy-companies-call-green-energy-stealth-taxes/
Germany’s green dream is becoming a nightmare
Berlin urged to revise its energy policies as soaring costs threaten industry
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, London Daily Telegraph, Sep 23, 2013
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Germany+green+dream+becoming+nightmare/8946343/story.html
Greens outraged over Polish ‘clean coal’ push at UN climate summit
By Staff Writers, EurActive, Sep 25, 2013
http://www.euractiv.com/energy/polish-coal-lobbying-climate-sum-news-530685
Green deal is damp squib as only 12 homes take up energy-saving offer
The government’s much-vaunted energy-saving scheme has been criticised as overly complex and expensive
By Harriet Meyer, The Guardian, Sep 21, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.theguardian.com/money/green-living-blog/2013/sep/22/green-deal-energy-saving-offer
‘The lights will go out over Britain’: Shares in energy firms drop 5% amid warnings of blackouts from Miliband’s plan to freeze bills
Miliband said he would ‘fix power bills until 2017’ if he won next election
But energy industry warns it will lead to gas and electricity shortages
Centrica’s Sir Roger Carr called policy ‘a recipe for economic ruin’
By James Chapman and Matt Chorley, Mail, UK, Sep 25, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
Funding Issues
EU admits double-counting climate finance and development aid
By Arthur Neslen, EurActiv, Sep 20, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
IPCC emergency! Send in the philosophers
By Peter Foster, Financial Post, CA, Sep 25, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://opinion.financialpost.com/2013/09/25/peter-foster-send-in-the-philosophers/
Bastardi’s / Jung’s Initial Winter Speculation Morphs Into “A Killer 2014-Winter Forecast” – Fear Spreads Across Europe
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 26, 2013
[SEPP Comment: A statement to the times.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
ADMISSION!…German Delegation, Politician Concede: “Climate Policy Needs Element Of Fear” In IPCC Report
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 23, 2013
Carbon cleanup would save millions of lives: study
By Staff Writers, Paris (AFP), Sept 22, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Carbon_cleanup_would_save_millions_of_lives_study_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Before the use of carbon based fuels to provide electricity, the average life span was far less than today!]
“Honey, I shrunk the consensus” — Monckton takes action on Cooks paper
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 24, 2013
http://joannenova.com.au/2013/09/monckton-honey-i-shrunk-the-consensus/#more-30815
[SEPP Comment: The publication of the Cook et al. paper illustrates the low standards of the publisher!]
IPCC report: Britain could cool if Gulf Stream slows
Britain’s climate could get cooler over the next 80 years, a major UN report on global warming is to suggest.
By Richard Gray, and Nick Collins, Telegraph, UK, Sep 26, 2013
[SEPP Comment: What nonsense!]
World is Heading for a Heart Attack, UN Climate Expert Claims
By Ben Webster, The Times, Via GWPF, Sep 23, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/world-heading-heart-attack-climate-expert-claims/
Models v. Observations
Not waving but drowning
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Sep 23, 2013
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/9/23/not-waving-but-drowning.html
New Book by Bob Tisdale: “Climate Models Fail”
By Bob Tisdale, WUWT, Sep 25, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/25/new-book-by-bob-tisdale-climate-models-fail/
Model Issues
Lord Lawson calls for review of UK’s ‘flawed’ climate model
By Priyanka Shrestha, Energy Live, Sep 23, 2013
Link to paper: The Climate Model and the Public Purse
By Andrew Montford, GWPF, No Date [H/t Malcolm Ross]
http://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2013/09/Montford-Climate-Model.pdf
Nic Lewis vs the UK Met Office
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 25, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/25/nic-lewis-vs-the-uk-met-office/#more-13094
Met Office concedes the error
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Sep 25, 2013
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/9/25/met-office-concedes-the-error.html
Link to the full responst:
http://niclewis.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/slingo-letter-comments1.pdf
Measurement Issues
Urban Heat Island – could it account for much of the century scale warming attributed to AGW?
By Joseph D’Aleo, ICECAP, Sep 27, 2013
If we had continued with USHCN version 1, the 2000s would be the second warmest decade behind the 1930s.
[SEPP Comment: Whether intentional or not, the books have been cooked.]
Unwarranted Temperature Adjustments and Al Gore’s Unwarranted Call for Intellectual Tyranny
By Jim Steele, WUWT, Sep 25, 2013
[SEPP Comment: More evidence of the Urban Heat Island effect and the inappropriate adjustments to the historic temperature record.]
Changing Climate
Ancient Forest Thaws From Melting Glacial Tomb
By Laura Poppick, Live Science, Sep 20, 2013 [H/t Ron Sundelin]
http://www.livescience.com/39819-ancient-forest-thaws.html
Drought Trends Across Canada
By Staff Writers, SPPI & CO2 Science, Sep 25, 2013
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/drought_trends_across_canada.html
Medieval Warm Period in Australia & New Zealand
By Staff Writers, SPPI & CO2 Science, Sep 25, 2013
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/medieval_warm_period_in_australia_a_new_zealand.html
Changing Seas
Ocean heat content: relentless but negligible increase
0.065 °C in 45 years
By Luboš Motl, Reference Frame, Sep 25, 2013
http://motls.blogspot.com/2013/09/ocean-heat-content-relentless-but.html
The relentless increase of ocean heat
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 26, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/26/the-relentless-increase-of-ocean-heat/#more-13098
Shell Game
By Rud Istvan, Climate Etc. Sep 26, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/26/shell-game/#more-13105
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Antarctic sea ice hit 35-year record high Saturday
By Jason Samenow, Washington Post, Sep 23, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
[SEPP Comment: If it had been reducing the headline would state the lowest every!]
Arctic Ocean Predicted To Be Ice Free By 2013 — Oops!
Editorial, IBD, Sep 24, 2013
http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/092413-672356-arctic-ice-cap-grows-60-percent.htm?p=full
Arctic ice melt slows down: NASA
By Staff Writers, Washington (AFP), Sept 21, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Arctic_ice_melt_slows_down_NASA_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Trying to explain why last year’s trend did not continue.]
The ice is not melting, yet still the scaremongers blunder on
The real global warming disaster: green taxes, a suicidal energy policy and wasting billions on useless windmills
By Christopher Booker, Telegraph, UK, Sep 21, 2013
Acidic Waters
IPCC on acid – if they are virtually certain about ocean acidification, why does X-prize offer a reward for designing a proper ocean pH meter?
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 25, 2013
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by NIPCC
For a full list of articles see www.NIPCCreport.org
Modeling Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and Precipitation: CMIP5 vs. CMIP3
Reference: Bhend, J. and Whetton, P. 2013. Consistency of simulated and observed regional changes in temperature, sea level pressure and precipitation. Climatic Change 118: 799-810.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/sep/24sep2013a1.html
Clearly, progress in climate modeling of this nature over the past several years has essentially been no progress at all.
The Outlook for Modeling Clouds (Adequately) … is Still Cloudy
Reference: Lauer, A. and Hamilton, K. 2013. Simulating clouds with global climate models: A comparison of CMIP5 results with CMIP3 and satellite data. Journal of Climate 26: 3823-3845.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/sep/24sep2013a2.html
Roots of Norway Spruce Trees Growing in CO2-Enriched Air
Reference: Pokorny, R., Tomaskova, I. and Marek, M.V. 2013. Response of Norway spruce root system to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration. Acta Physiologiae Plantarum 35: 1807-1816.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/sep/24sep2013a4.html
As for the significance of their findings, Pokorny et al. write that “the finest roots showed the highest positive growth stimulation under elevated CO2 conditions,” and they note that this phenomenon leads to a “larger root absorbing area per tree,” which in turn leads to “better tree water supply under elevated CO2,” with its attendant “higher chance to survive dry periods.” And, of course, a larger root-absorbing area per tree also results in more nutrients being absorbed by the trees, which enables them to better cope under stressful environmental conditions.
Plastic Responses of a Marine Picoplankton to Ocean Acidification
Reference: Schaum, E., Rost, B., Millar, A.J. and Collins , S. 2013. Variation in plastic responses of a globally distributed picoplankton species to ocean acidification. Nature Climate Change 3: 298-302.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/sep/25sep2013a3.html
The four scientists conclude their work by stating that “as CO2 levels increase, O. tauri will grow and photosynthesize faster, and have larger cells with a higher C/N ratio than contemporary cells,” with the result that “Ostreococcus, along with other green algae and cyanobacteria, are likely to increase in abundance in high-CO2 conditions” with concomitant benefits for the biosphere.
Litigation Issues
California’s low-carbon fuel standard to stay
By Staff Writers, Sacramento (UPI), Sep 20, 2013
http://www.spacemart.com/reports/Californias_low-carbon_fuel_standard_to_stay_999.html
“If no such solution is found, California residents and people worldwide will suffer great harm. We will not at the outset block California from developing this innovative, non-discriminatory regulation to impede global warming,” [Judge] Gould stated.
EPA and other Regulators on the March
What Is Really At Stake In The House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Subpoena Of EPA Data
By Geoffrey Kabat, Forbes, Sep 23, 2013
Link to paper: Assessing geographic heterogeneity and variable importance in an air pollution data set
By Stanley Young and Jessie Xia, Statistical Analysis and Data Mining
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/sam.11202/abstract
EPA Head Admits Being Clueless About Any Obama Climate Plan Benefits
By Larry Bell, Forbes, Sep 22, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Clueless is an incorrect term. She is very clever and manipulative.]
It’s Only the Beginning
By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Sep 27, 2013
http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2013/09/27/its-only-the-beginning/
EPA Proposes Revised Carbon Standards for New Power Plants (UPDATED)
By Sonal Patel, Power News, Sep 20, 2013
Former EPA general counsel Martella discusses agency’s legal rationale for new source proposal
Transcript by Staff Writer, EETV, Sep 25, 2013
http://www.eenews.net/tv/videos/1729/transcript
[SEPP Comment: To the courts, the process is important, not the substance.]
EPA won’t require carbon trapping for existing power plants
By Julian Hattem, The Hill, Sep 23, 2013
[SEPP Comment: We do not know that. Will EPA do the slow kill, and prevent major improvements?]
EPA Foils Clean Fuel
By Howard Richman, Raymond Richman, and Jesse Richman, American Thinker, Sep 23, 2013
http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/09/epa_foils_clean_fuel.html
[SEPP Comment: Driving up the cost of using compressed natural gas in automobiles.]
Obama Appeals to Trout Fishermen on Power-Plant Pollution
By Mark Drajem, Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2013
Energy Issues – Non-US
Cost of energy hammers EU industry
By Guy Bentley, City AM, Sep 25, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.cityam.com/blog/1380120004/cost-energy-hammers-eu-industry
How Europe’s Economy Is Being Devastated By Global Warming Orthodoxy
By Jim Powell, Forbes, Sep 19, 2013
Energy Issues — US
‘Blowing Smoke’ at Obama CO2 Policy: POWER’s Peltier Retires in High Style
By Robert Peltier, Master Resource, Sep 27, 2013
http://www.masterresource.org/2013/09/obama-smoke-co2-policy/#more-27594
Carbon Gauntlet Book Description
By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Sep 24, 2013
http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2013/09/24/carbon-gauntlet-book-description/
EIA: Gas-Fired Generation Falls from 2013 Levels But Still High
By Thomas Overton, Power News, Sep 25, 2013
Washington’s Control of Energy
Unwelcome Milestone for Keystone XL
By Jack Gerard, Energy Tribune, Sep 25, 2013
http://www.energytribune.com/79269/unwelcome-milestone-for-keystone-xl#sthash.5mwOh1P7.dpbs
[SEPP Comment: Five years since application for permits.]
Obama vows to protect ‘free flow’ of Middle East oil
By Ben Geman, The Hill, Sep 24, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Why not protect the free flow of oil from Canada, by approving the Keystone pipeline?]
Federal Mandarinate Decrees End to Coal
The mindless EPA has taken us back to 1970.
By William Tucker, American Spectator, Sep 27, 2013
http://spectator.org/archives/2013/09/27/federal-mandarinate-decrees-en
New Rules On Power Plants Will Kill Coal Industry
Editorial, IBD, Sep 20, 2013
Day 7: Obama refuses to follow the law on nuclear waste
By Conn Carroll, Washington Examiner, Sep 24, 2013
Emissions regulations are central battle in Obama climate agenda
By Julian Hattem and Ben Goad, The Hill, Sep 23, 2013
No ‘Incredibly Small’ Wars Against Energy by Obama
By Marita Noon, Townhall, Sep 22, 2013
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Shale pits environmental versus economic interests
By Staff Writers, Paris (AFP), Sept 24, 2013
http://www.oilgasdaily.com/reports/Shale_pits_environmental_versus_economic_interests_999.html
Return of King Coal?
The United States is a developing nation and coal is its foundational fuel
By Frank Clemente, Energy Facts Weekly, Sep 24, 2013
http://us1.campaign-archive1.com/?u=29bc7d5d85828d574f86c157a&id=ebf45f6aa1&e=
Nuclear Energy and Fears
End of Atomic Age Seen as Merkel’s Biggest Headache Now
By Stefan Nicola, Bloomberg, Sep 24, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
IAEA Issues Projections for Nuclear Power from 2020 to 2050
By Staff Writers, IAEA, Sep 24, 2013
http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/2013/np2020.html
[SEPP Comment: Slow growth.]
Carbon Schemes
Norway abandons Mongstad carbon capture plans
By Staff Writers, BBC, Sep 20, 2013
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24183443
[SEPP Comment: So much for EPA’s McCarthy’s claims of a proven technology.]
California Dreaming
Will the U.K. Repeat California’s Energy Disaster?
By Marc Champion, Bloomberg, Sep 24, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-24/will-the-u-k-repeat-california-s-energy-disaster-.html
Other Scientific News
Environmental Satellites:
Focused Attention Needed to Improve Mitigation Strategies for Satellite Coverage Gaps
Statement by David Powner, pownerd@gao.gov, GAO, Sep 19, 2013
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-13-865T
Full Statement:
http://www.gao.gov/assets/660/657954.pdf
[SEPP Comment: High potential gap in timely deployment of satellites, which can endanger public health and safety.]
Geostationary Weather Satellites:
Progress Made, but Weaknesses in Scheduling, Contingency Planning, and Communicating with Users Need to Be Addressed
Contact: David Powner, pownerd@gao.gov, GAO, Sep 9, 2013
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-13-597
Link to Full Report: http://www.gao.gov/assets/660/657516.pdf
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BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Clean energy least costly to power America’s electricity needs
By Staff Writers, Heidelberg, Germany (SPX), Sep 24, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Complete nonsense!]
Study: The Late Cretaceous Period was likely ice-free
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 26, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/26/study-the-late-cretaceous-period-was-likely-ice-free/
[SEPP Comment: The article attempts to make a blame CO2 for the warm period. However, the positioning of the continents makes an analogy impossible.]
###################################################
Judith Curry asks: “So, can anyone figure out why 0.06C is a big deal for the climate? Or how all that heat that is apparently well mixed in the ocean could somehow get into the atmosphere and influence weather/temperatures/rainfall on the land? Or is sequestering heat in the ocean a fortuitous ‘solution’ to the global (surface) warming problem?” See links under Changing Seas.
That is my question too, it is harmless. Even if Global warming is happening it is completely harmless, so let them believe their junks science if they want to. There is no reason to fret, any more than if they believed in a spaghetti monster.
Quote of the Week: If an honest man is wrong, after demonstrating that he is wrong, he either stops being wrong or he stops being honest. Anonymous [H/t Tim Ball]
Don’t I recall from Watergate days one of Harry S Truman’s comments along the lines of
“If a person does wrong and knows it, that’s one thing.
If a person does wrong and doesn’t know the difference, that’s entirely something else”
EPA Policy Impacts
Surprise, surprise, surprise … the EPA’s policies increase the cost of electricity yet have no measurable impact on ‘climate change’. i.e. All pain for no gain. Great deal if US taxpayers (as Obama notes his administration’s policies will result in higher costs for electricity and the higher costs will be passed onto consumers) had surplus funds to spend on scams. Did Obama administration ask the US tax payers if they support paying higher costs for electricity for no reason? …. …..Germany is ahead of the curve pushing this madness. The average cost of electric power in Germany is three times the average cost of electricity in the US and Germany is starting to experience power failures due to the practice. Higher costs for electricity, no effect on climate change, and the opportunity to have brown outs.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/2013/09/22/epa-head-admits-being-clueless-about-any-obama-climate-plan-benefits/2/
“EPA Head Admits Being Clueless About Any Obama Climate Plan Benefits
So there you have it. Regardless of the countless billions of taxpayer and consumer dollars being spent to wage war on natural and inevitable climate change, the EPA head is unable to identify any discernible health and welfare benefits of her agency’s draconian regulatory policies. Instead, the apparent goal of the EPA’s current and proposed greenhouse gas regulations is to persuade the international community, particularly China, India, and other developing nations, to follow the Obama administration’s U.S. leadership over an economic precipice.
Let’s finally get it straight. Carbon dioxide isn’t a dangerous “pollutant”… it’s a natural and essential plant food. The real dangers to public health and welfare are the economic destruction, job elimination and escalating costs of food, energy and other essentials resulting from scientifically-unwarranted policies. The greatest burdens of such sophistry fall upon those who can least afford them.”
http://www.forbes.com/sites/williampentland/2013/08/16/no-end-in-sight-for-spains-escalating-solar-crisis/
….The associated economics (William: green scam) are something akin to the (William: economic) apocalypse.
Spain calls it the “tariff deficit,” a massive debt that accumulated over the past decade as the cost of running the country’s electrical system exceeded the revenues generated by sales of power. … … In May, the tariff deficit reached a whopping $34 billion. …. ….By 2012, a whopping $10.6 billion in subsidies were paid out to the renewable energy industry, rising by about 20% from the previous year, and covering more than one third of all electricity generated in Spain.
http://theenergycollective.com/willem-post/169521/wind-turbine-energy-capacity-less-estimated
As a result of the existing RE build-outs, German household rates increased from 13.94 to 28.50 eurocent/kWh, from 2010 to 2012, a 104.4% increase, and industrial rates increased from 6.05 to 16.10 eurocent/kWh, from 2010 to 2012, a 166% increase. According to a recent study for the federal government, electricity will cost up to 40 eurocents/kWh by 2020, a 40% increase over 2012 prices. … …. Among european nations, German households have the second highest electric rates; 28.5 eurocent/kWh (energy, plus fees, plus taxes), after Denmark (32 eurocent/kWh), courtesy of RE. US low electric rates are the envy of heavy industry elsewhere, including Germany. France’s are among has the lowest.
William: The average cost of power to US consumers is US $0.1057/kw-hr, a third of the cost of electric power in Germany. ($1 US = 0.75 Euro) http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/end_use.cfm
http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/2013/01/23/germanys-green-energy-destabilizing-electric-grids/
William: It is interesting that the EPA ignored its own technical expert’s report on the technical flaws in the extreme AGW science.
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/endangermentcommentsv7b1.pdf
“Technical Support Document for Endangerment Analysis for Greenhouse Gas Emissions under the Clean Air Act”
I hope SEPP holds another press conference to announce an updated CCR that takes on the recently revised SFP and the final WG1 report. And also the WG2 & WG3 reports when they are released.
Quote of the Week: If an honest man is wrong, after demonstrating that he is wrong, he either stops being wrong or he stops being honest and starts demonstrating.
Fixed it!
I appreciate doctors Motl and Curry!
Impressive list of links, sorry I don’t have the time to read all of them.
Everybody hum the “Twilight Zone” theme.
Can’t post in Tips & Notes; wassup?
The Economist does AR5: http://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2013/09/ipcc-climate-change-report
Acknowledges some of the contrafactuals and contradictions, but fudges the conclusions.
I see the Daily Mail continues to comment on AR5, this time it is about comments from Dr. Richard Lindzen. The fact that we are getting articles from the “SCEPTICS” side in MSM is hopeful I guess, that the winds of change are starting to blow. This would be the 4th such article in the last few days.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2438434/MIT-scientist-ridicules-IPCC-climate-change-report-calls-findings-hilarious-incoherence.html.
This is just for those in the rest of the world that don’t follow or know about our newspapers
National Readership Survey daily figures for 2012
The Sun 1st
Print – 7,007,000
Web – 503,000
Combined – 7,385,000
Daily Mail/Mail on Sunday 2nd highest
Print – 4,530,000
Web – 2,786,000
Combined – 6,932,000
The Guardian/The Observer :- Not the 3rd place just entered for comparison
Print – 1,123,000
Web – 1,401,000
Combined – 2,370,000
http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/nrs-publishes-national-press-combined-print-and-online-readership-figures