Global Warming Survey Virtually Meaningless
London: In recent weeks US President Obama and the UK’s Energy and Climate Secretary Ed Davey have both cited a survey of climate science abstracts that alleges an overwhelming consensus on the subject of global warming.
In a new briefing note published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation today, Andrew Montford reviews the methodology used in the survey and concludes that the consensus revealed by the paper by Cook et al. is so broad that it incorporates the views of most prominent climate sceptics.
“The consensus as described by the survey is virtually meaningless and tells us nothing about the current state of scientific opinion beyond the trivial observation that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas and that human activities have warmed the planet to some unspecified extent,” Andrew Montford says.
“The survey methodology therefore fails to address the key points that are in dispute in the global warming debate,” Montford adds.
Andrew Montford: Consensus? What Consensus? (PDF)
Once again, if you go looking for something, you will more than likely find it. However, that is not science.
Reblogged this on Cornwall Wind Watch and commented:
Oh dear Davey, were you quoted pseudoscience papers again ?? Thank you WUWT as ever
Cook et al. will take a smidgen of a molehill and turn it into the whole of a mountain. They don’t want facts, facts would just get in the way. They and their ilk have a world to take over. What use are facts to them?
Ed Davey should stop pussy-footing around with a non-existent ‘consensus’ and focus instead on the UK’s Met Office problems. In 2012, after a dry spring, the UK had a hosepipe ban and the Met Office’s £33M computer predicted a dry BBQ summer. It turned out to be one of the wettest summers in living memory and the wettest June on record.
On 18th June this year, Prof Stephen Belcher (Met Office Hadley Centre) predicted a decade of wet summers. “The 20-year cycle began in 2007, with six of the past seven summers being wet, and this trend will continue” he said. “Wet summers are more likely for the next 5 to 10 years. This is due to Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation – and climate change may be intensifying the cycle. I am excited about this research, it’s a new thing that we really didn’t know about.” Dr Adam Scaife (Met Office Hadley Centre) also quoted “In 2012, like the previous few summers, warm North Atlantic conditions brought milder temperatures and rain. The same pre-conditioning is there again this year. This summer will be slightly wetter than average.”
Well Met Office, here’s the embarrassing statistics for this years wet summer . . . .
From 18th June to 31st August 2013 (75 days)
2 days of heavy rain (23 & 29 July – the latter came with spectacular thunderstorms and hail).
4 days of moderate rain.
18 days with very light showers or fine ‘mizzle’ at some stage – but nothing to worry about.
6 cloudy days, hardly much sun shining through, but DRY.
45 glorious days of complete sunshine with no rain whatsoever.
69% dry, 24% very slightly damp, 5% wet, 2% washout.
Footnote 1: UK Businesses rely on Met Office predictions. 2012’s washout summer saw retailers tying up precious capital in garden furniture, BBQ food and equipment – which hardly sold. This summer, paddling pools and cooling fans were like gold dust – everywhere was out of stock whilst shops couldn’t shift their stockpiles of umbrellas and raincoats.
Footnote 2: There also has been hardly any breeze throughout this glorious UK summer – so a big kick in the teeth for those with a vested interest in bat-chomping bird-slicing eco crucifixes.
Even the Warmists who were included denied the classification.
> 45 glorious days of complete sunshine with no rain whatsoever.
The downside of Sunny Olde England. Err, new England. With tall buildings. And concave surfaces. And reflective windows.
http://www.cityam.com/article/1378091289/exclusive-walkie-scorchie-melted-my-jag
http://www.cityam.com/article/1378168613/walkie-scorchie-sets-carpet-fire-cracks-tiles-and-melts-paint
Thanks Ric. Yes, several WUWT visitors posted about this yesterday. The buckled Jag is awful.
Flaws? Impossible. A responsible journal has testified that it has acquired a collection secret testimonials that there is nothing remiss in Cook’s testimony that a majority of like-minded people testify to being like-minded.
If you know anything about science you know that this proves that AGW is the theory best supported by the evidence and so absolutely correct and beyond the judgement of science denying skeptics
/truly-wish-this-was-a-sarc-tag
Food has been a military weapon since agriculture first started. To be blunt killing the livestock and burning the fields of the enemy or your own in the case of a retreat is very good strategy.
Unfortunately in most industrialized countries we are four or more generations off the farm and have lost our appreciation for where our food actually comes from. In the USA for example, the Census classifies only 18% of the population as rural. The portrait of the dumb gun toting redneck primative throwback in the MSM for years has been intentionally fostered to marginalize the opinions of farmers.
To many food comes from the store wrapped and sanitized with absolutely no connection to the farmer who produced it with no realization that there is less than a weeks supply if the trucks cease to run or no supply at all if harvest fail in more than one hemisphere. Heck kids don’t know where eggs, milk and more important a Big Mac comes from and if they find out the reaction is YUCK!
A few appropriate quotes from my treasure trove:
“The Collective Farm Policy was a terrible struggle, Ten million died. It was fearful. Four years it lasted. It was absolutely necessary.” Joseph Stalin http://www.faminegenocide.com/resources/quotes.html
Why was it necessary?
“The Socialist Revolution in the US cannot take place because there are too many small independent farmers there. Those people are the stability factor. We here in Russia must hurry while our government is stupid enough to not encourage and support the independent farmership.” V. Lenin, the founder of the Russian revolution
Quote provided by Anna Fisher
1934, “[Our] future is becoming visible in Russia.”/b> Assistant Secretary of Agriculture Rexford Tugwell (Now doesn’t that one send a chill up your spine?)
That was not a slip of the tongue either. In September 1995 Catherine Bertini, Executive Director of the United Nations World Food Program, and former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Agriculture, stated “Food is power. We use it to change behavior. Some may call that bribery. We do not apologize.” at the UN’s 4th World Conference on Women: Beijing, China. http://ngin.tripod.com/280702c.htm
On April 16, 1999 A veritable who’s who of corporate agribusiness writes a letter to Clinton about WTO meeting in Seattle: They want to establishment a three year goal, and a more effective set of trade rules for the agricultural sector http://www.thecalamityhowler.com/agbiz/agex-31.html
“In summary, we have record low grain inventories globally as we move into a new crop year. We have demand growing strongly. Which means that going forward even small crop failures are going to drive grain prices to record levels. As an investor, we continue to find these long term trends…very attractive.” Food shortfalls predicted: 2008 http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/dancy/2008/0104.html
“Recently there have been increased calls for the development of a U.S. or international grain reserve to provide priority access to food supplies for Humanitarian needs. The National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) and the North American Export Grain Association (NAEGA) strongly advise against this concept..Stock reserves have a documented depressing effect on prices… and resulted in less aggressive market bidding for the grains.” July 22, 2008 letter to President Bush http://www.naega.org/images/pdf/grain_reserves_for_food_aid.pdf
This excerpt from The 2001 Issues for the Agricultural Talks and WTO Trade Round is truly ironic. Seems logic gets twisted to fit the facts so what else is new.
This statement by US bureaucrats sums up the attitude of our ‘government masters’:
In July 2000, USDA officials claimed in court hearing that, “The farmers have no rights. No right to be heard before the court, no right to independent testing, and no right to question the USDA.” ~ Linda Faillace: Mad sheep http://www.vtcommons.org/journal/2006/10/linda-faillace-mad-sheep-vermont-farm-family-challenges-national-animal-identificati
This was not a one off either.
Did someone say that Americans are FREE?
See pages 32 to 47 FROM JUDICIAL WATCH FOIA PDF:
http://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/2161-docs.pdf
It is a document obtained from the Department of Defence entiled: “AFSS 0910 EQUAL OPPORTUNITY AND TREATMENT INCIDENTS (EOTI) LESSON PLAN”
Subtitle Extremism
Nice to know the US military tosses the Founding Fathers into the same category as ” anti-globalization rallies” “Eco-Warriors” and Christians who might have a wee bit of a problem with a religion that destroys the twin towers in NYC and then wants to put up a victory symbol. It is even more interesting that the US MILITARY lists first under EXTREMISM:
No wonder they court martialed a young man who refused to take orders from the UN.Specialist Michael New, refused to wear a United Nations uniform and to serve under a foreign commander.
The USA, Canada and Australia of course are not the only countries losing their farmers.
January 8 2008 ~In the UK Defra has dropped the word ‘farming’ from its title. “Defra and the Treasury’s joint vision document of 2006 presented to the EU argued that supports for farming should be completely abandoned..” http://www.warmwell.com/archivejan2008.html
OOPS posted to wrong Article. It was supposed to go in The bull and the Borg
Or, as I phrased it at the time, “97% of Climate Scientists agree with Anthony Watts.”
I was making the same point then.
Haven’t seen any these people Obama, Davey and news organizations apologizing and correcting themselves. I don’t expect them to either, they’ll just continue to “keep on message”
Gail Combs, GREAT POST (lol, where-EVER it is placed). #(:))
Anyone who cares about consensus is a politician, not a scientist. Science isn’t suppose to change with the weather, but consensus does. It is as fickle as the stock market, which goes up and down based on the consensus of investors. Would you make investment choices today based on a consensus of market experts from last year? Then why would you expect this year’s consensus of climate experts to be the same as next year’s? I have no doubt that if a survey on global warming was taken 4 times a year, they would find that the degree of consensus literally changes with the seasons. That’s not useful in science, only in politics, where today’s poll means everything. There are politicians masquerading as climate scientists, but their reliance on consensus gives them away.
Whew. I’m not a backwards, science-hating, polar bear killing denier after all!