New Cape Verde tropical storm forms

One of the Cape Verde waves coming off Africa has resulted in a new tropical storm. Of course it is well away from North America at the moment, but this is the place that many big storms that make U.S. landfall get their start.

Here is the bulletin:

WTNT35 KNHC 151138
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL      AL052013
800 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013

…DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERIN WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.5N 25.6W
ABOUT 65 MI…100 KM WSW OF BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO…SANTIAGO…FOGO…AND
BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS
STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ERIN.

AT 800 AM AST…1200 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 25.6 WEST. ERIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER OF ERIN WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM…
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY
IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE ISLANDS.

RAINFALL…ERIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM AST.

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30 thoughts on “New Cape Verde tropical storm forms

  1. Might this be our first hurricane of 2013? You know the idiots at NOAA are currently holding a vigil (for Gaia) to make it so.

  2. “By day 3…the system will be moving into a drier and
    more stable atmospheric environment…which should result in
    weakening. The global models and the HWRF show a weak or
    dissipating system by day 5…however the SHIPS and lgem show
    little change in intensity or even strengthening. The official
    forecast leans a little toward the weaker solution at days 4 and 5.”

  3. Way too early to tell where it hits, but before I do the Google route, does anyone know about how long (on average) it takes for these storms to get to the US?

  4. Nearly all models kill poor Erin by early next week due to drier air and wind shear. Erin is destined to always be in the NHC name rotation never to be retired. If we fail to get an August hurricane, it will be the first time we’ve gotten hurricane-free through August since 2002.

  5. HenryP says:

    @Tom Trevor
    that is an ad hominem attack
    At least have the decency to say what you did not agree with?
    (so I can learn)

    ===

    You’re really ready to learn ? I doubt it.

    Start by finding out what ad hominem means. Hint: saying your site is crap is not it.

    Then do some frequency analusis on some climate data. Anything. Ice cover , SST , wind speed CO2 concentration variations whatever you like. Then ask youself if one sine wave is really enough .

    http://climategrog.wordpress.com/2013/03/01/61/

  6. I am waiting for the first hurricane to actually hit the US, as it inevitiably must, for all the gloating and teeth knashing and hair pulling to begin as “carbon pollution” is blamed for it.

  7. You are right, oeman50. Warmists everywhere are praying for a big’un to hit the U.S. They WANT death and destruction. If one hits us, it’s climaty changy. If not, it’s weather.

  8. To much wind shear and very little upper atmosphere water vapor..

    this one is going to die within about 4 – 6 days. might make cat 1 but I am betting it wont..

  9. Erin was ingesting a lot of dry and Sal laced air all day. It motion is much higher in Latitude than originally forecast. To their credit NHC has shifted their forecast based on this new reality. I think it will weaken and go to an open wave before the current forecast period completes.

    Erin is moving at about 12 or 13 knots per hour. A knot is a nautical mile or about 6076 feet. Every degree of Longitude near the Equator is divided into 60 minutes of arc. Every minute is the equivalent of a nautical mile. So a degree is about 60 nautical miles. So count the number of degrees between the central core of Erin and what ever point you care about. Multiply that number by 60 and then divide the result by the average speed and you will determine how long in hours it will take Erin to reach your target.
    .
    But I live in the great Western desert, so what and why would I know anything about the Atlantic’s MDR (Main Development Region).

    [Salt-laced air? Mod]

  10. Greg says
    Then ask yourself if one sine wave is really enough

    @greg
    I think it is enough when it is
    1) drawn from 650000 measurements in a well chosen balanced sample of 47 weather stations, that is globally representative
    2) and that this 88 year sine wave is well known from previous studies;
    Persistence of the Gleissberg 88-year solar cycle over the last ˜12,000 years: Evidence from cosmogenic isotopes
    Peristykh, Alexei N.; Damon, Paul E.
    Journal of Geophysical Research (Space Physics), Volume 108, Issue A1, pp. SSH 1-1, CiteID 1003, DOI 10.1029/2002JA009390

    and when turning points, and changes of sign of my wave can be:
    3) correlated with the flooding of the Nile
    4) correlated with ozone concentration (&peroxides, nitrous oxides) TOA
    5) correlated with sunspots and planetary movements, mainly Saturn and Uranus
    6) correlated with evidence that the ancients knew about the 50 years of high flooding followed by 50 years of low flooding (of the Nile)

    I do follow other indicators, just for interest sake, e.g.

    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1987/to:2014/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1987/to:2014/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/rss/from:1987/to:2013/plot/rss/from:2002/to:2013/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1987/to:2014/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/rss/from:1987/to:2002/trend

    but I know where we are heading, now, don’t I? If you follow maximum temps. you will soon figure it out as well.

  11. Erin’s not looking like doing anything much at all – it’s debatable whether it’s even of TS strength at the moment, and it’s coming up to that big, persistent region of very dry air soon. The most recent frames of the satellite loops show precious little convection, so it may struggle to see out the weekend. It may regenerate briefly in the sub-tropical or mid-latitude Atlantic, like Dorian did a couple of weeks ago, but a hurricane? Not a chance.

    I suspect that dry air is going to snuff out just about every potential MDR storm this season. Only when the Caribbean starts to take over as the main area of development – about a month from now – are we likely to see anything significant. On that note, it is worth keeping an eye on the Gulf over the weekend, actually, as there may be the opportunity for a small-sized storm to spin up quickly, but upper conditions aren’t ideal for a ‘cane.

  12. With looking at the fulldisk satellite image you get to see the bigger picture and the reason why hurricane activity has been low. The winds that blow across mid Africa have been very strong his year and have tracked more to the north then normal. The has brought more rain to the southern Sahara. But has also brought a lot of dry air and dust over the mid Atlantic.
    Which has been putting a brake on hurricane formation.

  13. Interesting goings-on down past Hawaii, by the way. Looks like a storm brewing around 9N 173W. I don’t recall seeing many storms pass through there, never mind actually start there. There seems to be a lot of competing activity between it and SE Asia, which could promote enough shear to limit it, but it has potential to make headlines at the end of the month or early next.

  14. I think we should have a 24-hour waiting period for naming storms. Sustained winds for a full day before assigning a name, but that would lower the numbers in the predictions.

  15. Much ado about nothing. Fastest “fssst” I have ever seen. Maybe we need to have something like we have for the Sun. Is it a pore or sunspot?

  16. Cape Verde!? is that what? a 50% translation. It should be Cape Green or Cabo Verde.
    A mix of English and Portuguese like it is written makes no sense.

  17. Erin is now nothing more than a small tropical depression with no sustained winds below 39 knots. it is falling apart… As it dissipates so do the warmists hopes for a catastrophe…

  18. I would have given it two more days before falling apart but the air is [too] dry and wind shear increasing. Add to that a cool ocean flow and its over.. Its having trouble even getting gusts over 39 Knots..

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