The daily mean temp 80 -90 degrees North has remained below climatological normal for more than 120 days, and has now dropped below freezing
Normally, we don’t see this sort of drop until early to mid September. I’m surprised to see this sharp drop today:
See this magnified view:
Bear in mind that this is weather, and that the average temperature for the area could easily go above freezing again. That said, it has been an unusual year for temperature in the Arctic. The closest year to what we have seen so far in 2013 appears to be 2010, which had an early drop below freezing. The high Arctic in year 2013 though, has never gotten above climatological normal, and that’s unusual.
I have created an animation for all years from 1958-2013, with a 1 second interval between frames and a 4 second pause on 2013:
Source: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/
WUWT reader Steve Oak writes:
=============================================================
For some inexplicable reason I follow the Daily Mean Temperatures North of 80 degree North. This started a few years ago when I was looking for information relating to the global temperature that was unadulterated so that I may form my own opinion as to the veracity of global warming claims and found this data set . While not “unadulterated” this looks to be fairly legitimate. I welcome further analysis.
The Danish Meteorological Institute, Center for Ocean and Ice produces a chart plotting the daily mean temp as a function of the day of the year against the average of daily mean temp as a function of the day of the year for the period form 1958 to 2002.
For the last 120 days or so the daily mean has remained below the 1958 to 2002 average. It has also now dropped below freezing.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
While it cannot be assured that the daily mean will remain below freezing, the trend to this point and that there are so few remaining days before the average drops below freezing gives credence to that possibility.
Here is an explanation of the data set from the DMI, COI.
Calculation of the Arctic Mean Temperature
The daily mean temperature of the Arctic area north of the 80th northern parallel is estimated from the average of the 00z and 12z analysis for all model grid points inside that area. The ERA40 reanalysis data set from ECMWF, has been applied to calculate daily mean temperatures for the period from 1958 to 2002, from 2002 to 2006 data from the global NWP model T511 is used and from 2006 to 2010 T799 data are used and from 2010 to present the T1279 model data are used.
The ERA40 reanalysis data, has been applied to calculation of daily climate values that are plotted along with the daily analysis values in all plots. The data used to determine climate values is the full ERA40 data set, from 1958 to 2002.
More information can be found at:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/documentation/arctic_mean_temp_data_explanation_newest.pdf.
==================================================================
Whether or not this early temperature drop translates into an early increased Arctic ice extent or melting remains highly uncertain, as there is a polar storm weather event in progress that may break up sea ice as happened last year: NASA on Arctic sea ice record low – storm ‘wreaked havoc on the Arctic sea ice cover’
See this current animation of dewpoint temperature from Dr. Ryan Maue of WeatherBell. It shows moisture bands from the polar low rotating around the north pole.
(NOTE: you may have to click the image below to get it to animate on some browsers)
Keep up to date on the WUWT Sea Ice Page: http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/
How many days late was it in getting to freezing in the spring?
Glad I’m not trying to row through the Northwest Passages – no reason to think they’ll melt at this rate.
As a Canadian, let me tell you it is cold up North.
It is also two weeks late getting to the “thaw” too. It has been above freezing for only 50 days. this year.
Is it record cold since 1958?
Is it near record cold since 1958?
While we are on the subject of the Arctic, readers may recall the following article. It is from the BBC from 2007:
“Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013′”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
I await with much anticipation…
But, you see- this is just more proof of man- mind climate armageddon.
Pay up, it’s all your fault.
My humble apologies but the Arctic sea ice extent has finally hit death spiral mode. We MUST concede – its worse than we thought. We must act now.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
At first blush, I have to wonder if there is a bit of anomalous data, or some other error.
But…if it keeps showing up this way….very interesting.
As I watch the screens flash by it occurred to me that I wasn’t able to pick out any series of signals that would indicate to me CAGW. And aren’t the higher latitudes suppose to be the canary in the climate warming hype?
It’s worse than we thought!
Ever notice how the right side of year X never lines up the the left side of year X+1? I got to looking at how the charts are produced and its models all the way down with a smattering of tortured data and all that means is I have less faith in it than I did before as it is subject to the whims of the analysts. That lack of faith is the legacy this class of climate scientists has left us.
Thanks for the animation – I had just yesterday downloaded the images to do just that. Also – earlier to day the current temp was not below zero so I either saw a cached version or there was an update. Regardless, it is the shortest above freezing season on record, and one of if not the lowest average above freezing season. The extent looks to be storm-tossed, but that is weather not climate. Arctic variability is endlessly amazing no matter which way the wind blows.
There is a nasty cyclone near the north pole that caused this sudden drop in temperatures. There is also a high over the CAA and the temps around Amundsen Gulf are anomalously high, Kugluktuk NU is currently 82F, while Paulatuk NWT is 84F
http://i.imgur.com/kOSynh1.png
The precession of the equinox provides the correct algorithm to predict global weather trends.. The glacial melt about 10000 years ago is now driving the world towards a colder regime in another 3000 years or the mid cycle of 26000 years to another glacial melt or warming trend. See Vedic science as epitomised in Sankhya , an axiom based theory that has derived all manifestation parameters from fundamentals. There are no cyclic uncertainties in Sankhya as it derived from a dynamic base that remains so perpetually. Global warming has two theoretical reasons. The Suns (hence Earth’s too) distance from the galactic centre keeps changing which causes polar glacial meltdown every 26000 yrs. The other is human stupidity. Energy is the central support for all life and its extermination must release it as enthalpy (latent heat like ice) . Mans greed for food leads to the slaughter of at least a million tons of flesh daily. The heat released is the equivalent of a thousand nuclear explosions. Has man the intelligence to see his folly , especially when it would affect his huge stomach? So bleating inanities is for the birds! Stop it and stem that rot by re-educating your savage neighbor to look at food as a promoter of life, not only ones own but other lives too. You must not forget that those cheap lives came into being for a very good reason. Have you got the perspicacity to see its importance?
Visit www dot kapillavastu dot com slash index dot html to learn all details
Nearly the entire polar region is below 0C with many areas nearing -5C
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmp_01.fnl.gif
These very smart scientists(US Gov’t NASA none the less!) think the Arctic will be mostly ice-free this summer. And they knew that 5 years ago.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztz3ZdPbdKo&w=420&h=315]
In the first graph at the top of the page, it looks like the trace also crossed the line later than normal.
Environment Canada is showing above normal temperatures for the far north of the CAA in direct contradiction to the Weatherbell animation posted above. Resolute, NU on Ellesmere Island forecast calls for temperatures reaching 54F on Saturday, 13F above normal. We will see in a couple days whose forecast is correct.
http://weather.gc.ca/forecast/city_e.html?nu-27&unit=i
Gaa’ dammit – dares more smoke cummin’ out da machine
The possibility consequentially exists that @ the half-precession old Holocene (and centennial change), the sun going all quiet on us, the PDO gone negative on us, and the AMDO soon to follow suit, mean?
With respect to things climate……?
Given that 7 of the past 8 post-MPT interglacials have each lasted about half a precession cycle (87.5%), can anyone think of anything that might, possibly, could, perhaps up H. sapiens odds?
Anything? Anything at all?? That could possibly span:
“…..Insolation will remain at this level slightly above the glacial inception for the next 4,000 years before it then increases again.” Sirocko et al (A late Eemian aridity pulse in central Europe during the last glacial inception, nature, vol. 436, 11 August 2005, doi:10.1038/nature03905, pp 833-836)
What, on earth, might such a thing turn out to be?????????
Oops!
I misread the Weatherbell title and didn’t realize that it was dew point temps, sorry, that’s what I get for surfing without my reading glasses.
SHOCK NEWS! Arctic Summers Ice-Free by 2013 http://climatism.wordpress.com/2013/08/08/shock-news-arctic-summers-ice-free-by-2013/
Nobody in the know, seems to be talking, but this seems to be the last view you’ll see after a polar bear tackle.
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2013/9.jpg
(someone called the tipped camera long ago, also the tracks in the snow).
MM here in mid Ontario the trees are turning orange a month early any ideas on what this means?
I thought it felt like fall on July 29th. Fall in Southern Ontario at the end of July. So glad I will be headed back to the Bahamas soon. Just have to put in my tax paying time in Ontario first.
I’m not going to get too excited until I see a few of these in a row. … and an increase in multi year arctic ice.
Yes .. I know it is sadistic .. but if millions of people dying and starvation and all that is what it takes to shake the public and idiots in the liberal media away from this CO2 non-sense … then it is what it is. Global Cooling is the killer, and we here all know that. However, it’s going to take millions dying to convince the numb and the dumb about it’s reality.
But never fear … CO2 causing global cooling will be the next scare tactic. Because it has not been, is not, and never will be about climate .. it is about the evil oil companies.
From Jimbo on August 8, 2013 at 6:00 pm:
Bah. By the yearly beat, during the seasons, months, even day to day, the ice wriggles up and down, as it all goes up, and down, and sometimes when down the winds swirl it all around, as extent drops to levels that astound, now this year looks like a rebound.
Is the Arctic sea ice spiraling, or twerking?
Ah, twerking it is.
Perhaps we can set up a celebrity fundraiser for the Arctic. We’ll send up Miley Cyrus and Rhianna. They can twerk for the cameras, then hand-feed some raw tofu burgers to those helpless starving polar teddy bears.
Tiredoc says:
August 8, 2013 at 6:15 pm
It’s worse than we thought!
NO NO NO…..it’s worse than that….
our hummingbird friends here are swarming the feeder something they do just before migration about a month early and there are flocks of geese gathering for migration feeding like crazy on the grain missed by the harvesters based on these and other animals in the area it feels to me that winter is coming and it will hit hard and fast.
It may be slightly colder than normal north of 80, but the rest of the Arctic is anomalously hot. Check out the temp anomalies along the almost all of the coast along the Arctic Sea.
http://img809.imageshack.us/img809/2263/3jnh.jpg
Dr. Deanster says:
August 8, 2013 at 7:45 pm
Yes .. I know it is sadistic .. but if millions of people dying and starvation and all that is what it takes to shake the public and idiots in the liberal media away from this CO2 non-sense … then it is what it is.
=======================
They either voted for it or couldn’t be bothered to vote against it – in the purportedly “educated” world that is.
Darwinian evolution, live as it happens.
Always fighting off the Devil. Our genetic heritage.
The warmists have ignored multiple observations that appear to indicate that the majority of the warming in the last 50 years and in the last 150 years was due to solar magnetic cycle changes. If the climate war was not being fought, scientists would have written papers about the anomalies, discussed the anomalies at conferences, and might possibly have solved this problem.
As the paper below notes there is a delay in cooling in the high Arctic of 10 to 12 years when there is a change from a short solar magnetic cycle to a long solar magnetic cycle, which is roughly one solar magnetic cycle. As there is now the start of cooling in both the Arctic and Antarctic and there is the start of climate changes that match what happened during the Maunder minimum it appears the mechanism that was inhibiting the GCR modulation of planetary clouds must be complete.
Base on what has happened before there should be significant cooling of the high Arctic in the winter which will result in thicker sea ice.
Greenland ice temperature, last 11,000 years determined from ice core analysis, Richard Alley’s paper.
http://www.climate4you.com/images/GISP2%20TemperatureSince10700%20BP%20with%20CO2%20from%20EPICA%20DomeC.gif
http://www.climate4you.com/
The following graph is a comparison of the past solar cycles 21, 22, and 23 to solar cycle 24.
http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_recent_cycles.png
http://arxiv.org/abs/1112.3256
Solar activity and Svalbard temperatures
The long temperature series at Svalbard (Longyearbyen) show large variations, and a positive trend since its start in 1912. During this period solar activity has increased, as indicated by shorter solar cycles.
The temperature at Svalbard is negatively correlated with the length of the solar cycle. The strongest negative correlation is found with lags 10 to 12 years.
These models show that 60 per cent of the annual and winter temperature variations are explained by solar activity. For the spring, summer and fall temperatures autocorrelations in the residuals exists, and additional variables may contribute to the variations. These models can be applied as forecasting models.
We predict an annual mean temperature decrease for Svalbard of 3.5 ±2C from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 (2009 to 2020) and a decrease in the winter temperature of ≈6 C.
William: Latitude and longitude of Svalbard (Longyearbyen)
78.2167° N, 15.6333° E Svalbard Longyearbyen, Coordinates
From Master of Space and Thyme on August 8, 2013 at 8:09 pm:
Around “almost all of the coast” would be temperature readings at settlements. If it’s colder than usual, then there will be more heating inside and vehicles left idling than usual, etc, thus increased UHI-type temperature measurement contamination.
What do the satellites say? That’s what matters, as that’s what should be trusted.
Nope.
1. I still don’t “get it”. Been looking at this DMI plot for many years, and still cannot figure out if they are plotting only a multi-day “model” (or forecast) of what they “think”: is going on at the “average” latitude of 80 north, or if they have several independent thermometers/weather stations at various locations near 80 north latitude that they “average” together to get their day-by-day changing plot.
2. What is the best “equation” of their green line “yearly-average” curve?
3. If the green line is their best-average “yearly estimate”, then what do they have for a daily minimum and maximum limit around that “average” temperature, and does the (maximum daily temperature) – (minimum daily temperature) change over the year?
4. I have read a daily temperature chart for Thule AFB Greenland at 79+ latitude that plots average hourly temperature for each day. Is that hourly plot a good approximation for the rest of the arctic at 79-81 north latitudes?
It cools off quickly once the days shorten. And actually, even a 10 degree temperature anomaly doesn’t mean much when it is -20 instead of -30. What matters most to biology is number of days below freezing. We currently have a more meridional rather than zonal jet flow and that can mean warm air being brought far north in some areas and cold air being brought far south in others. The latest advance forecasts I hare seen for this winter call for above average temperatures in Alaska but temperatures below normal in most of the US, which would seem to imply such a meridional flow. It’s really going to depend on what happens in the Pacific. If we see things trending more to El Nino, we will see things become more zonal in most cases. If it drifts toward La Nina conditions, more meridional. If it stays neutral, who knows, because we don’t have a lot of data from long periods of time stuck in ENSO neutral conditions. That is generally just a transitional condition when things are going between the two other states.
isnt the freezing point of sea water -2C (271.15K)?
Looks like Aquarius showed up! My canine teeth tell me that meat is good! And the Mayan calendar thing with the cycles is so last year.
@ crosspatch
The anomalously hot temperatures are nowhere close to being below freezing, we are looking at temps over 80F this weekend near 70 degrees north along the coast.
Here are two examples
http://weather.gc.ca/forecast/city_e.html?nu-16&unit=i
http://weather.gc.ca/forecast/city_e.html?nt-16&unit=i
Anti-Albedo,,,,,,,,, now what about the massive amount of brine created from this much ice formation?
Really, what does that deep water flow/impact do? It sure is a cold injection into the global system
I can’t find much on it. Can you?
FWIW, we have had snow twice in the last week on the highest peaks hear in the Colorado Front Range. Not unheard of in August but not that common either.
Similarly, in looking at models, I have been struck how low the heights / thicknesses are in Canada for this time of year – I am guessing likely tied to the Arctic cold seen in this post.
Of course , the most interesting question is what is driving the arctic cold & does it have any implications for the upcoming winter & beyond ? Simple question, difficult to answer. If we can’t easily answer that question, why would anyone think they could predict the climate in 100 years ??
dp says:
August 8, 2013 at 6:16 pm
Up until 2009 they took off for the holidays?? at the end of the year, and only recorded 360 days as the result of the limits of the spread sheet they were using. From 2009 on it shows all 365+ leap days when applicable. It was noticed here at WUWT and they responded in 2009.
@ kadaka (KD Knoebel)
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp2.html
Master of Space and Thyme said on August 8, 2013 at 9:04 pm, like it should somehow have actually meant something:
Oh good, I ask for satellite info after “Master” mumbles about temp anomalies. The response is a forecast map, “Temperature Anomaly during the first 7.5-day period from: Thu, 08 AUG 2013 at 12Z to Fri, 16 AUG 2013 at 00Z”.
Which shows it is indeed forecast to be “anomalously hot”, “Normal Temperature derived from CRU monthly climatology for 1901-2000”.
Wonderful. It’s not from a satellite, not even data. It’s a forecast. Relative to the 20th century temperatures. With nothing telling me how “anomalously hot” it’ll be compared to last year, or the last thirty years, or any sort of frame of reference that’s usable.
Another FAIL from the Master of Speciousness and Thyme-wasting.
WUWT reader Steve Oak writes:
“For some inexplicable reason I follow the Daily . . . ”
Me too. This takes a lot of beer and popcorn but in the interest of keeping up with the science it is well worth the expense. Cheers!
Full disclosure: Here in central Washington State our weather has been warm and dry. Summers in central WA are always warm and dry.
Right. And it doesn’t really mean much. First of all, data only goes back to 1955 in Kugluktuk so records there don’t really mean a lot, besides, these temperatures aren’t unusual there for this time of year. The record high temperature for the month of June is 88F, July is 94.8 and August is 84.6 so these temperatures aren’t far out of line from what has been recorded so far. What is more important than extreme highs or lows is the number of days below freezing for the year.
We have a rather meridional jet flow these days. This means air gets pulled from the south to far northern latitudes and then dips down again. The central US is seeing a record cool August in many places. They have had two straight days of southerly winds so far at Kugluktuk. So far I’m not seeing anything spectacularly unusual.
@ kadaka (KD Knoebel
Face reality, almost all of the Arctic south of 80 is currently much warmer than usual and it is forecast to remain that way for the next few days.
Oh, and forecasts are for temperatures there to be back down in the 60’s by the weekend.
@ crosspatch
You seem to be missing the point. I have posted all these links to show that despite the small decrease in temperatures north of 80, the rest of the Arctic is much warmer than normal and it is forecast to remain that way for several more days
By the way, Kugluktuk once saw a temperature of 81 degrees in December (December 19, 1999) compared to a record December low of -48 (December 12, 1977).
My guess is that they must get a Chinook condition when the wind is blowing just right and get significant adiabatic warming.
I’m certain that’s a sign of runaway Global Warming, and it means we are doomed, doomed, DOOMED!
No, you seem to be missing the point. Those temperatures are quite normal to see in that area at this time of year, though they are higher than the long term AVERAGE temperature for the date. But in this particular case, the average doesn’t mean much because these locations have temperatures that vary wildly either side of the average fairly regularly.
There’s nothing unusual going on and daylight is fading quickly there (losing more than 1 hour of daylight per week). I agree that it is warm there, but I don’t see anything particularly unusual going on.
From Master of Space and Thyme on August 8, 2013 at 9:43 pm:
But the “usual” you referenced is the 20th century average, start to end. Temperatures went up during that period, although “global warming” hasn’t happened this century.
So at the top of the hill, you’re telling me to “face reality”, the heights will now be “anonymously high” relative to the average height between the base and the top of the hill.
What else can they be? We’re at the top!
You know, if first you FAIL, and your follow-up is to FAIL HARDER, that usually is not considered an improvement.
crosspatch says:
August 8, 2013 at 9:43 pm
“Oh, and forecasts are for temperatures there to be back down in the 60′s by the weekend.”
Bull!, the two links I posted for weather stations along the coast have temperatures forecast to be above 80F this weekend. Regardless, even if the temperature were in the 60’s, that is a far cry from the minus 20 degrees you talked about in an earlier post.
“This summer has been the coldest ever. This cooling is unprecedented”
neil says:
August 8, 2013 at 6:25 pm
I this you new science fantasy novel?
RACookPE1978 says:
August 8, 2013 at 8:38 pm
1. I still don’t “get it”. Been looking at this DMI plot for many years, and still cannot figure out if they are plotting only a multi-day “model” (or forecast) of what they “think”: is going on at the “average” latitude of 80 north, or if they have several independent thermometers/weather stations at various locations near 80 north latitude that they “average” together to get their day-by-day changing plot.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Oh yeah, if only it were that simple 😉
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/documentation/arctic_mean_temp_data_explanation_newest.pdf
It is a lot more comprehensive than just a bunch of weather stations, but they do make it clear that the model is biased toward the most northerly temps.
As for the complaints by the Space and Thyme guy, yeah, so what? It is a big planet, there are ALWAYS sections that are above average and there are ALWAYS sections that are below average. If there weren’t, then there wouldn’t be a need to calculate an average in the first place. Not to mention that the very link you provided shows large swaths of eastern north america and chunks of west coast of US that are below average. Do you know what that means?
Glad you asked. Nothing.
It’s supposed to be summer here in the Prairies… and we had to turn the furnace on in the house last night.
Please can someone send some Global Warming our way?
Rural North Battleford, Saskatchewan, Canada dipped to 2.7 degrees C overnight on August 7, 2013. It’s the middle of summer!! A cold spring and a cold summer has made the grain farmers in the area very worried over this year’s harvest. In southern Alberta it has been a very cold spring and summer. Today’s high was 15 degrees C (59 Degrees F). In the Canadian prairies we are very concerned over the lack of global warming. Who can we complain to about this?
what did I tell you?
I found that from around the start of the new millennium, earth has started to cool globally. My own data set on maxima shows this very clearly. However, even without my own results (in case you do not trust them or me): the four major data sets measuring the average global air- and sea temperatures, also show that we have started cooling down for the past 11 years (this is the equivalent average time of one full solar cycle). Clearly you can see that the trend is negative from 2002:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1987/to:2014/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1987/to:2014/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/rss/from:1987/to:2013/plot/rss/from:2002/to:2013/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1987/to:2014/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/rss/from:1987/to:2002/trend
From the above simple compilation of linear trends in these 4 major global data sets, you can see that before 2000 we were still warming and that after 2000 we started cooling….Obviously , a natural consequence of global cooling is that at the higher latitudes it will become both cooler and drier.
As the people in Alaska have noted,
http://www.adn.com/2012/07/13/2541345/its-the-coldest-july-on-record.html
http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/20130520/97-year-old-nenana-ice-classic-sets-record-latest-breakup-river-1
the cold weather in 2012 was so bad there that they did not get much of any harvests. 2013 we had a record for the delay of the breaking of the ice of the Nenana river. And it seems NOBODY is telling the farmers there that it is not going to get any better.I think most of you guys have no idea what is coming in the next 2 to 3 decades.
So, we find that indeed the climate is changing, but it is not our fault….
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/04/29/the-climate-is-changing/#comment-365
OK. We have had a few summers of blocking highs in the northern hemisphere. One question that comes to mind is if this one is one of those?
There can be only so much time, so many years, until CAGW resumes it’s runaway self…..
Or, you know, maybe it doesn’t…..
In which case we face the latest grand solar minima at a half-precession old (and change) extreme interglacial.
The thing is, if you really want to be scared, things could be “hot” for a couple of centuries more. Oddly enough, that is actually the worst case scenario. The anthropogenic alternative might be the next ~90 centuries or so long glacial.
It will, in fact, be one or the other. CO2 either is or it isn’t the “manual setting” on gaia’s thermostat. I’m old enough so that it probably does not matter much which way “you” decide to turn the CO2 knob.
In the event that CO2 does determine climate, you get the next glacial. Or extend this interglacial somewhere beyond the onset of it.
Either way “you” only have so many (about 4,500 twenty-year long) hominid generations to avoid the next glacial.
In light of what is most likely to happen, as with not, it may not matter all that much with respect to the Precautionary Principle.
I, you, me, we, circumvent the next glacial, or we do not. It really is just that simple.
davidmhoffer says:
“As for the complaints by the Space and Thyme guy, yeah, so what?”
Who was complaining? I was commenting about the fact that most of the Arctic south of 80 degrees is quite a bit above freezing in spite of the cyclone that has been spinning around for the last three days. My comments were strictly about current weather conditions in the Arctic and had nothing to do with climate change.
It must be really cold up in the arctic. On Tuesday I was shocked to see about a dozen Pink Footed Geese overfly my home in the northwest of England. They are almost two months early. They arrived from Iceland early last year too (six weeks early) but I have never seen them arrive at the beginning of August. This year’s brood must barely have had time to mature and prepare for the flight because the birds were late leaving in the spring. Although a dozen geese does not a migration make the others can’t be far behind.
I watch what nature is telling us. Last year the geese got it right. The winter was cold and long. I’m doubling my efforts to make sure I have plenty of logs and coal for my wood burner because the UK government and their greenie advisors are doing their best to make warming our homes unaffordable especially if they succeed in their insane plans to use diesel generators to back up wind power. I’ve just had a massive increase in the cost of gas and electricity slapped on me already despite the fact I live in a small, energy efficient bungalow. Thank god I downsized when I did because the cost of energy to run my previous home must be horrendous.
Meanwhile, I live a handful of miles from Cuadrilla’s test fracking rig at Preece Hall in Lancashire. All that cheap energy lying in the ground beneath my feet and the greenie warmists doing their level best to ensure it stays there. I hope the anti-energy luddites freeze to their placards because, if the early goose migration indicates yet another harsh winter, they’ll deserve it.
I suppose they can always go sit in their cars to keep themselves warm though (!). You know, those same cars that run on feeeelthy Exxon product ripped from Gaia’s bossom from which evil Big Oil makes the planet roasting profits necessary to run d****r sites like WUWT and pay for Lord M’s caviar sandwiches… /sarc
That storms can “cause havoc” with Arctic sea ice is just proof that the ice has thinned and is vulnerable:
“Historically, stormy summers tended to end up with more ice than summers characterized by high pressure and few storms. As the ice cover has thinned, stormy conditions may actually help to remove more ice.” Nursery logic.
“As just discussed, summers characterized by stormy conditions tend to end up with more sea ice than summers characterized by high pressure. However, the effects of an individual strong storm can be complex. It appears that the August 2012 storm was attended by a modest acceleration in the pace of summer ice loss. While the middle of July 2013 also saw a storm over the central Arctic Ocean with a central pressure of 977 hPa, this year’s event has not led to a strong ice loss.”
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/08/a-month-of-two-halves-and-no-hole/
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011JD015847/abstract
So if it’s colder than normal in the Arctic but it’s still Winter here in the Southern hemisphere, does that explain the extra Antarctic ice and wouldn’t that mean the globe is cooling! 😉
The only way to kill a global warmist is to freeze it.
B-b-but guys, we found a dead polar bear! It’s because the ice is a11g0n3!!!
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/aug/06/starved-polar-bear-record-sea-ice-melt
I don’t know what you’ll be doing, but now I’m going to collect some firewood and buy some fuel oil before the winter…
SMS says:
August 8, 2013 at 6:12 pm
As I watch the screens flash by it occurred to me that I wasn’t able to pick out any series of signals that would indicate to me CAGW. And aren’t the higher latitudes suppose to be the canary in the climate warming hype?
No no … it is the adjustments to the temperatures that are the canary in the coalmine of CAGW hype.
RoHa says:
August 8, 2013 at 9:56 pm
I’m certain that’s a sign of runaway Global Warming, and it means we are doomed, doomed, DOOMED!
………………………………………………………….
It’s even far far worse than that………
The warmists have ignored the in your face observational evidence and the peer reviewed papers that support the assertion that the majority of the warming in the last 50 years and the last 150 years was due to solar magnetic cycle changes (50% to 80%). The warmists have spent the last 20 years telling anyone who will listen that the peer reviewed papers that disprove the extreme AGW hypothesis were written by and read by nethanderal, flat earth, bad guys. …. ….Ignoring scientific data and peer reviewed papers that disprove a hypothesis does not change reality, does not change the physical world. The planet it appears is starting to cool due to the solar magnetic cycle change. It appears the sun is moving towards a Maunder like minimum and will be spotless by 2015. To push the extreme AGW hypothesis the warmists have set up sites which conveniently provide almost real time sea ice date for both poles. How will the warmists response to significant, unequivocal cooling?
1) Turn off all sites that provide sea ice data and request that the sea ice data be hidden for national security reasons
2) Request weather channels to no longer report record cold weather to avoid panic
http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_recent_cycles.png
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/Sea_Ice_Extent_L.png
Greenland ice temperature, last 11,000 years determined from ice core analysis, Richard Alley’s paper.
http://www.climate4you.com/images/GISP2%20TemperatureSince10700%20BP%20with%20CO2%20from%20EPICA%20DomeC.gif
https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/74103.pdf
The Sun-Climate Connection by John A. Eddy, National Solar Observatory
Solar Influence on North Atlantic Climate during the Holocene
A more recent oceanographic study, based on reconstructions of the North Atlantic climate during the Holocene epoch, has found what may be the most compelling link between climate and the changing Sun: in this case an apparent regional climatic response to a series of prolonged episodes of suppressed solar activity, like the Maunder Minimum, each lasting from 50 to 150 years8. …. …..The paleoclimatic data, covering the full span of the present interglacial epoch, are a record of the concentration of identifiable mineral tracers in layered sediments on the sea floor of the northern North Atlantic Ocean. The tracers originate on the land and are carried out to sea in drift ice. Their presence in seafloor samples at different locations in the surrounding ocean reflects the southward expansion of cooler, ice-bearing water: thus serving as indicators of changing climatic conditions at high Northern latitudes. The study demonstrates that the sub-polar North Atlantic Ocean has experienced nine distinctive expansions of cooler water in the past 11,000 years, occurring roughly every 1000 to 2000 years, with a mean spacing of about 1350 years. …. …..Each of these cooling events coincides in time with strong, distinctive minima in solar activity, based on contemporaneous records of the production of 14C from tree-ring records and 10Be from deep-sea cores. For reasons cited above, these features, found in both 14C and 10Be records, are of likely solar origin, since the two records are subject to quite different non-solar internal sources of variability. The North Atlantic finding suggests that solar variability exerts a strong effect on climate on centennial to millennial time scales, perhaps through changes in ocean thermohaline circulation that in turn amplify the direct effects of smaller variations in solar irradiance. (William: TSI changes is not the mechanism that causes cooling. See Tinsley and Yu’s paper for an overview of the mechanisms.)
http://www.albany.edu/~yfq/papers/Yu_CR_CN_Cloud_Climate_JGR02.pdf
The solar wind affects the galactic cosmic ray flux, the precipitation of relativistic electrons, and the ionospheric potential distribution in the polar cap, and each of these modulates the ionosphere-earth current density. On the basis of the current density-cloud hypothesis the variations in the current density change the charge status of aerosols that affect the ice production rate and hence the cloud microphysics and climate [e.g., Tinsley and Dean, 1991; Tinsley, 2000]. The underlying mechanism is that charged aerosols are more effective than neutral aerosols as ice nuclei (i.e., electrofreezing) and that the enhanced collections of charged evaporation nuclei by supercooled droplets enhance the production of ice by contact ice nucleation (i.e., electroscavenging). Both electrofreezing and electroscavenging involve an increase in ice production with increasing current density [e.g, Tinsley and Dean, 1991; Tinsley, 2000]. The current density-cloud hypothesis appears to explain solar cycle effects on winter storm dynamics as well as the day to-day changes of Wilcox and Roberts Effects [e.g., Tinsley, 2000]. Kniveton and Todd [2001] found evidence of a statistically strong relationship between cosmic ray flux, precipitation and precipitation efficiency over ocean surfaces at midlatitudes to high latitudes, and they pointed out that their results are broadly consistent with the current density-cloud hypothesis.
I note that the horizontal line in blue is at 273.15K. This is a bit deceptive as the freezing point of sea water is -1.96°C or 271.19K. So although the line represents the freezing point of pure water it is not low enough to freeze sea water.
Not convinced Arctic will get back above freezing this year: http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp2.html
neil says: @ August 8, 2013 at 6:25 pm
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
????
I suggest you read this by an engineer:
The Earth’s Energy Balance: Simple Overview
More articles on Energy Balance: link
@Peter Foster
I often see it phrased as “the melt season”, and the ice and snow stops melting when the temperature is zero Celsius. The line is also provided by the climate scientists, not by WUWT.
P Gosselin says:
August 9, 2013 at 3:10 am
“Not convinced Arctic will get back above freezing this year”
I hope you understand that the temperatures at that link are in degrees celsius and it is showing most of the Arctic is not only above freezing, the temps are above normal. The Arctic starts at 66.3 degrees north, not 80 degrees.
From the animated yearly graph of arctic temperatures 1958-2013, it looks to me like the summer time temperatures have decreased over time. The earlier years seem to have much more above the green line than the more recent years.
Mosher must be in a real fix over this.
Ahhh, a giant Arctic storm!
Winter is coming………
A compilation of ice-free Arctic Ocean / North Pole predictions / projections from scientists for the past, present and future. [Some with caveats & uncertainties]. I’ll try and add some more in time for 17 September minimum so we can compare and contrast.
***
Master of parsley, sage, rosemary and thyme
August 9, 2013 at 4:19 am
***
Booorrriiing.
Can you imagine what it would be like if the hype was the other way around and the MSM and cretins in charge of governments were chasing their tails in fear of global cooling? Maybe something like this…
“Leading scientists have continued to urge Congress to pass legislative action for more funding for the Space Glass, which will use an effect much like having a huge magnifying glass focusing the sun’s rays on remote parts of the oceans and Antarctic glaciers to heat them and reverse some of the effects of global cooling.
Congress passed a $27 billion initiative in 2008 for a consortium of the best scientific minds to come up with a project to overcome the alarming drop in temperatures. The fact that they passed this spending bill in the middle of the worst economic downturn in 75 years demonstrates its importance.
“It is crucial that we continue expeditious work on the Space Glass,” stated senatorial testimony yesterday. “Each day we wait the sun becomes weaker, the earth grows colder as it has since 1998, and it gets harder to reverse the cooling effects. I urge my colleagues to pass this bill for $53 billion so that we can get this project complete and set before the end of this decade.”
Some people think even 2020 could be too late. The southern hemisphere winters continue their trend toward becoming more Antarctic with more record snows in Australia and New Zealand, and another cold snap in Brazil may affect coffee prices and caused snow. Southern hemisphere ice has reached record extent again this year, while northern hemisphere ice had the largest freeze up on record last fall.”
Jimbo says:
August 9, 2013 at 5:31 am
A compilation of ice-free Arctic Ocean / North Pole predictions / projections from scientists for the past, present and future. [Some with caveats & uncertainties]. I’ll try and add some more in time for 17 September minimum so we can compare and contrast.
—————————————
What boggles my mind is how anyone with any intelligence can even make statements about an “Ice Fre Arctic” let alone get away with it. In my feeble mind, I don’t understand how these people are not scorned to the point that they go into permanent hiding. Especially if the prediction is for only a few years out, or worse yet, this is supposed to happen *this summer*.
There are other signs. Looking at the pole cams the past few days, it’s clear winter is closing in early this year. There have been a number of snow events and remember that lack (that the dummies portrayed as a lead)? It really froze up, into rink like dense ice. BTW – one of the two pole cams appears to have been blown over and is now being slowly buried in the snow.
Lack -> lake (and I’m not even typing on a phone!)
Where is Hansen?
Arctic doom called off for 41 years.
http://www.hngn.com/articles/9729/20130809/scientists-predict-ice-free-arctic-2054-caused-global-warming.htm
Why again is an ice free Arctic a bad thing?
My favorite quote of the day…
“So now even the once very green Danish media is now spreading the seeds of doubt. So quickly can “settled science” become controversial and hotly disputed. The climate debate is far from over. And when it does end, it looks increasingly as if it’ll end in favor of the skeptics.”
The August 7 print edition of the Danish Jyllands-Posten
Can anyone say Maunder minimum 🙂
I have been following the DMI plots of Arctic temps for several years. I have noted that their plots show no increase in Arctic temps over the last 50 years. However, the satellite sensors show an average increase of about 0.33 degrees C per decade in the Arctic in the lower troposphere since 1979 (although no increase in the Antarctic). Can anyone enlighten me as to the reasons for this discrepancy?
Master of Space and Thyme
The warm temps around the Arctic circle are due to the weather pattern.
Because there is low pressure over the pole it means that the highs have to form around the Arctic circle instead. ln summer this means it brings warm sunny weather to these area’s.
But as we move towards winter and this type of weather pattern is still in the place. Then l think you will quickly understand why l call this set up a “lce age pattern”.
No wonder NOAA is still talking about 2012.
Very strong upper level low pressure(500mb level) equates to low arctic temperatures.
The key to this winter will be blocking patterns(high pressure) between latitudes 50-75 N latitude.
With low solar activity prevailing since 2005, chances are good this pattern may again come about.
When blocking occurs the polar vortex is weak in intensity , which allows cold out breaks to reach the mid latitudes.
IT EQUATES TO A -AO INDEX
@taxed
“But as we move towards winter and this type of weather pattern is still in the place. Then l think you will quickly understand why l call this set up a lce age pattern.”
We are barely half-way through summer, this cyclone is only forecast to last a few more days. What will be interesting to watch in the next week is how much of an effect it will have on the ice. Those anonymously warm temperature over the CAA and Beaufort, forecast to last several more days, will not be doing the ice any good. The real unknown is what damage if any will this cyclone be doing to ice in the Central Arctic Basin. This melt season’s two previous cyclones left the ice badly fractured but had a negative effect on melting. Surface melt season is almost over, most of the melt in the next month will be from the bottom. If this cyclone brings up warm saltier water, then the ice will be affected. If not, then this years ice extent and area will rebound significantly from last year’s disastrous decline. Time will tell.
We are evolving more and more into a more meridional atm circulation pattern which bodes well for N.H. cooling. A meridional atm. circulation IF SUSTAINED AND STRONG ENOUGH can bring on a little ice age for the N.H.
Master of Space and Thyme
Am not that worried what the sea ice extent will be if this pattern shows up in winter.
lts the weather it will bring further to the south where most of the people live is what’s more worrying. lf the jet goes zonal with this pattern in place for much of the winter. Then the ice age comes a visiting for the season.
Thanks to Ryan Maue and Anthony for posting that great animation of the polar storm. Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand data bits.
This has been a terrific year to sit about and watch ice melt, with the fuss about “Lake North Pole,” and the camera tipping polar bear, and now this neat storm.
Hey, I have a couple questions. When a storm sits on the pole, does it have a north side? Which side is the south side?
I’ve been watching the “north pole camera” lots, and the circulation around this storm has moved it across the meridian, and it seems to be heading for Svalbard rather than Fram Strait. Seems to be snowing a lot at the camera, though the lens is fogged.
http://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2013/08/06/north-pole-camera-one-pictures-polar-bear-tracks/
I think the arctic ice won’t get broken up as much as last year. This storm involves colder air, and blows around the pole rather than across, and my subjective judgement of the ice is that it is firmer this year.
Re the blue line. True it will stop melting from above at 0°C but it can still melt from below unless the sst in that area has cooled to -1.96°C. and no new ice will form until the sea is at that temperature. Not concerned who produced the graph , just making the point.
Cheers
Interesting comment on the ice situation from some folks attempting to sale this year. Worst Ice in 89 years. Causing some problems for folks: http://northwestpassage2013.blogspot.com/2013/08/dodos-delight-worst-ice-in-89-years.html
RE: Master of Space and Thyme says:
August 8, 2013 at 8:09 pm
It may be slightly colder than normal north of 80, but the rest of the Arctic is anomalously hot.
=============================================
Clearly the Arctic Front is somewhere between those points and 80N.
Clearly the cyclone is drawing the ice back in, not expelling it. 🙂 !!
@James At 48
The ECMWF 09Aug 0Z still had a <985hPa storm with a tight pressure gradient
http://i.imgur.com/P3VaANv.png
The latest ECMWF 09Aug 12Z shows the storm re-intensifies Sunday with SLP at the center at 980 mb, and Monday at 985 mb.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013080912/ECH1-48.GIF?09-0
There will still be significant positive temperature anomalies over the Beaufort, CAA and ESS on Monday
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013080912/ECH100-72.GIF?09-0
Things are becoming very interesting in the Arctic
In reply to:
LexingtonGreen says:
August 9, 2013 at 1:38 pm
Interesting comment on the ice situation from some folks attempting to sale this year. Worst Ice in 89 years. Causing some problems for folks:
http://northwestpassage2013.blogspot.com/2013/08/dodos-delight-worst-ice-in-89-years.html
William:
Interesting comments at the blog you provide a link to. If the planet is truly cooling there will be a steady stream of interesting observations for discussion. It is unusual that a major scientific issue(s) will be settled in real time based on observations.
It is difficult to imagine how the warmists, the media, the scientific community, and the public would react to significant cooling of the Arctic, Greenland Ice Sheet, and so on (basically reversal of the warming that has occurred over the last 150 years).
The warmists have left themselves no way out after announcing the science is settled and demanding that trillions of dollars must be spent on green scams to avoid catastrophic warming. After 20 years of fighting the climate war using 24/7 propaganda, it will be quite difficult for the warmists to admit the extreme AGW hypothesis was completely incorrect and the majority of the warming in the last 50 years and 150 years was due to solar magnetic cycle changes.
http://northwestpassage2013.blogspot.ca/2013/08/dodos-delight-worst-ice-in-89-years.html
“Yesterday PM was the first time I realised that actually this expedition may be halted by the ice… I really didn’t think that after 89 years the ice would be the worst in all that time (allegedly), but early this morning I was looking at the ice chart and it really is impassable for a stretch of 350-400 miles.
The normal navigable passage season is in August and September, and as we are basically treading water every day that passes makes success less likely – at least in 2013. Whilst the past two decades have seen the ice melt increase in longevity year on year, 2013 had been to date a reversion of the trend. Many are talking about it being a “bad ice year”.
We are in communication with a couple of other boats attempting the passage both from our side (the West) and from the Atlantic. All are concerned. At present the ice is between 5 & 7/10ths from Barrow East for a distance of approx. 350 miles – impassable by most yachts, including Dodo’s Delight.”
The video is interesting. As with all low pressure systems they tend to draw air into them. Since this is close to the pole it is not surprising that warmer air will be brought further north in areas where the southerly winds are the strongest. It will be interesting to see if this affects the DMI data over the next few days. The rising warm air will quickly lose energy to space. I think Master of Space and Thyme’s observations support this picture.
Overall we have had more circumpolar flows this summer. I think that is why the DMI numbers are so low and why the ice has not been flushed out as it has in recent years. The cold air and ice are bottled up. This current storm will bring in warmer air but will also keep the ice from flowing outward. I think the latter is the most important factor. This is somewhat like a big refrigerator pumping out warm air. And, after the storm ends and all the warmer air has been radiated to space, a strong cooling could begin. There will be less warm air to compensate for the general cooling as the sun’s power wanes.
The AO index has been trending negative since 2008 ,meaning high pressure /warm temperatures have been the rule north of 65 n ,which translates into a more expansive , weaker polar vortex. The result being warmer overall temperatures between lat. 65-90n but many cold outbreaks for the middle latitudes.
Low pressure (500mb for a level of sorts ) equates to cold arctic conditions, a positive ao /strong polar vortex.
High pressure (500mb for a level) equates to warm arctic conditions, a neg ao/ weak polar vortex.
A negative polar vortex is what is needed to cause overall N.H. cooling which should continue to be the case going forward due to the prolonged solar minimum which started around year 2005.
Reblogged this on Newington Life and commented:
Weather/Climate details anyone?
Just checked the weather forecast for Alert Canada, and it looks like after Monday the hi temps will be below freezing. With the sun angle angle of 23 degrees at solar noon right now, it’s possible Alert may be staying below freezing for a while.
And yes, this is weather 😉
Since the freezing temperature of salt water is something like -1.8 C, did anyone here consider the possibility that the ice above 80N is so shattered and there is so much open water that the air temperature in summer drops ?
And that thus the DMI summer air temperature now and in during the past decade has more to do with how much more open water there is above 80N in summer than anything else ?