Coldest Spring In England Since 1891

And the cold weather is fully consistent with and caused by…wait for it….wait for it….

Paul, you are toooooo quick. The Met Off hasn’t had time to adjust the figures up.

We need to start planting Icelandic species in our garden. Our children won’t know what a heatwave is. I sense desperation amongst the natives – here in Castlefield, Manchester, the beer patios have been rammed all weekend – at 17C 63F

Pingo, maybe you should send your warm weather plants to Rovaniemi in Finland on the Arctic Circle – it’s going to be 79F there tomorrow:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/fi/rovaniemi/134773/daily-weather-forecast/134773?partner=bing

Paul Homewood says:
June 2, 2013 at 1:20 pm
They continue to just flounder around like a fish out of water. They constantly embarrass themselves over ‘projections’ or ‘predictions’, regional or otherwise.
I translate their ‘predicion’ – there’s a 40% chance it will be above or below normal and a 60% chance it will be normal. To err is human, you need a supercomputer to really foul up.

The last surviving humans will be a few breeding pairs in Singapore.

Last days of Spring, Brighton Beach, 16C, people swimming.

@ Latitude…
They didn’t give it a 50:50 shot, they gave cooler and warmer each the same 15-20% chance, with the balance falling in between, ie ‘average’. That means they predicted a cooler than average spring was 15-20% likely, leaving an average or warmer spring at a combined 80-85% likelihood.
The MO therefore rated a cooler than average spring as essentially only a 1:5 against shot. They were plainly wrong. Can you imagine if they called the great global warming scandal along similar lines of accuracy? Oh, wait….

The 1962 idea come’s from the UK temperature series – Which only goes back to 1910.
The Central England Temperature series goes back to 1659 and is the oldest, detailed weather record anywhere in the world.
There’s some very interesting data that I’ve seen recently that suggests quite a big connection between severely cold springs and the following summer/winter in the UK.
I’ll have a video on it next Sunday. Could be quite interesting.

Since 2008 I’ve been telling everyone that I noted the Jetstream pattern change around 2000 whereby the previous period of warming accompanied by more poleward / zonal jets was replaced by more equatorward / meridional jets and that therefore the late 20th century temperature trend had gone into reverse.
Was I wrong?
The only change that correlates with that timing is the decline of solar activity from active cycle 23 to inactive cycle 24.
CO2 is completely out of the ball park since it continued to rise throughout.

And people, let us not forget the Met Office’s Vicky Pope back in 2004. Oh this is classic…

Ask EAU researchers to build a new data set – that might work huh?

The comments on the Daily Mail article include this classic. It is so stupid that it’s hard to believe it isn’t a hoax.
‘As others have pointed out, it is the global temperature that is increasing, not necessarilly an increase in all areas but overall an increase. Another product of climate change is unpredictable weather which has been on a massive increase lately with more frequent tornados, hurricanes, tsunamis, etc. I am still amazed that so many people are still claiming climate change is a hoax when most scientists say it is a reality. A lot of scientists who were originally sceptical are now starting to believe in it. A recent report found that 97% of scientific research done on man made climate change over the years pointed to it being real. Despite all the scientific evidence and science community consensus a lot of people are still sceptical. If people have concerns then fair enough but I hope they have researched this properly and aren’t just getting their information from the papers, especially the tabloids.’
– Paul_J , Liverpool, United Kingdom, 01/6/2013 23:46

Similar situation here in Switzerland –
Meteosuisse reports that this Spring had the lowest solar insolation in cities across the country to the North of the Alps (Basel, Zurich and St. Gallen) ever since the homogeneous data series began in 1959.
http://www.meteoschweiz.admin.ch/web/fr/climat/climat_aujourdhui/retrospective_saisonniere/Bulletin_climatologique_printemps_2013.html
Across the country, the average temperatures for the 3 mo. period from March through May was between 0.7 and 1.8 degrees Celsius below the 30 y norm (1981-2010). This was the coldest Spring since 1987. We got lots of snow in the mountains last month. There is still plenty of snowpack above 2000m, which is raising the chance for snowslides on the passes and causing rivers to overflow their banks further downstream.
Kurt in Switzerland

I’m still waiting for this projected rise in temps so I can see my MetO approved Mediterranean plants flourish.

No, no, no! Y’all have it all wrong.
As reported in the reliable and unbiased Huffington Post (ENERGY SECRETARY ERNEST MONIZ: CLIMATE CHANGE IS ‘NOT DEBATABLE’ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/24/energy-secretary-ernest-moniz_n_3332401.html ), our new Energy Secretary, Ernest Moniz, proclaimed at his swearing in:
“I am not interested in debating what is not debatable…”
There! It can’t be colder! Can it? /sarc/

Ms Pope’s prior certainty, combined with her (presumably) continuing employment, tend to confirm Shaw’s observation with regard to the Professions, and their relationship to the laity 🙂

Some great stuff from the Met Office blog back in 12 November, 2012.

………..However, it’s not useful for most other people as it doesn’t give one forecast for what’s ahead – rather it outlines potential scenarios and their associated probabilities…….
Ultimately, we’re heading into winter and we expect winter to be colder than the rest of the year – but it’s too early to say exactly what temperatures we can expect or where and when we might see snow.
http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/11/12/whats-in-store-this-winter-responding-to-the-headlines/

Winter will soon be a is just a thing of the past. Children won’t know what Winter is.
Express – 8 February 2008
Winter has gone for ever and we should officially bring spring forward instead, one of the country’s most respected gardeners said yesterday……”There is no winter any more despite a cold snap before Christmas. It is nothing like years ago when I was younger. There is a real problem with spring because so much is flowering so early year to year.”
[Dr Nigel Taylor – botanist ]
Guardian, 26 Aug 2006.
“Spring is arriving earlier each year as a result of climate change, the first ‘conclusive proof’ that global warming is altering the timing of the seasons, scientists announced yesterday.”

Proof, if proof were needed, that global warming… etc etc ad on infinitum

It’s warming here in Alaska, but only because I put on my winter coat and went out and split wood for the woodstove. Perhaps after all the cold related deaths in England the numbers now add up on the nanny state model? If enough people die we can make this socialism thing work folks…Any volunteers? You there with the glasses.

Was the Met Office ever reliable.. England is cold, and if Durham is cold it must be colder in Scotland and the Hebrides. Live with it. Since air conditioning and central heating, Poms are becoming hot house flowers. Several years ago, a friends rellies came in November to Armidale NSW (colder here on the Northern Tablelands). They thought Australia was perennially hot and unfortunately it bleedin’ rained most of the time! Temps dropped as well. I returned from Cyprus in Feb 1963, it was one of the worst winters they had had since 1947. The Thames froze over at Windsor. Moving to Lincolnshire, I did not get out of my Sheepskin coat all summer, while climatising. When my baby was born, the months following the temps dropped to 28 deg.F inside. (No central heating and with a night time burning fire too- coal of course). Jack Frost patterns on the inside of the windows. So – remember those terrible snow drifts in Scotland and people getting stock and food dropped to them. Then the next summer we had water restrictions because it did not rain, just on hosing lawns and cars. Moved to Sydney, in November 1965, and quess what, water restrictions there too. If anything, expect colder temps and enjoy the warmth when it comes, and adapt accordingly.

“Originally, it was thought to be the coldest spring since 1962.”
If it was the coldest spring since 1891, by definition it was also the coldest spring since 1962. Maybe your first sentence should have read “……..coldest spring ONLY since 1962.”

@ milodonharlani says:
June 2, 2013 at 3:11 pm
Gareth Phillips says:
June 2, 2013 at 2:59 pm
Leeks!
Symbol of Wales since the Dark Ages Cold Period.
Garethman, Good point, everything is about a month behind so I’m still sowing Spring crops, four rows of leeks sown this morning ( You can never have to many Leeks in the garden ) and on the advice of a great supporter of the consensus on climate change I have bought a large polytunnel which I’m hoping will once again allow me to grow exotic crops such as Corn and Tomatoes. Incidentally most supporters of the Skeptical Science view fully acknowledge it will get colder and wetter in many areas.

No matter what the evidence depicts the UK still has a clown, namely Ed Davey (limp wristed Liberal) frothing at the mouth over yet more cuts in Co2 emissions. You know he and his acolytes have lost the argument when they descend into name calling!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22745578
Ralph E Snape

Solar Cycles says:
June 2, 2013 at 3:09 pm
I’m still awaiting new research that will link this to arctic sea ice loss and increasing methane levels, come on there must be a correlation there somewhere.

There’s a correlation there, of sorts. March and early April 2007 was wonderfully warm in England, though the summer wasn’t great. In fact, early April was virtually the warmest part of the entire year. March 2012 was also very warm to the point of almost being hot. The summer that followed was virtually non-existent.
I take it you’re familiar with the subsequent Arctic sea ice minima?
The weather patterns that contributed to these years of hot early springs and cold summers may have some relation to the promotion of ice loss in the Arctic. If they do, it suggests that this year’s Arctic melt will start slowly and, if England warms up, might continue to retain more ice than for a number of previous years. I think last year’s ice loss will preclude a massive rebound in the September minimum to 1990’s levels, butmay well show quite a recovery on last year’s minimum.

Urban heat islands must have stopped working.

Knowing the Alps quite well I say It doesn’t take much cooling to have glaciation to set in on a massive scale.
All it takes are some remnants of snow from last winter to survive a few short, cold summers in the high valleys of the Alps in a row and – voilà.

The minimums of the longer solar cycles are deeper and more severe or colder than the short ones. There are 50- 60 and 110-120 years and even longer climate cycles that emerge from sun/ocean interface. We just came out of the 30 year warm cycle and are now heading into 30 years of colder weather. The 110-120 climate cycles which seem to correlate with periods of low solar sunspot activity last troughed around 1890, 1780, 1670, 1560. and 1450 .These periods could be clearly seen in the graph previously posted by Tony Brown on WUWT web page Significant cooling followed these dates in the past. We are now entering the start of the trough period of this longer 110-120 year climate cycle, like 1880-1910 which tends to be colder than the typical 30 year cool cycle trough. This is the climate pattern that followed a long solar cycle followed by three short but low solar cycles. The year 2015 will also be 200 years since the Dalton Minimum or the end of the 200 year solar cycle which again tends to be deeper and colder than the 60 year or 100-120 year minimums. The December of 2010 , March 2013 and the spring of 2013 are all typical temperatures during the past similar deeper minimums.
Thus the weather will be getting progressively colder for the next several decades. The 2013/2014 winter will be colder than the last winter and the subsequent winter 2014/2015 may be colder still. The winters will stay cooler for the next several decades.

Damn coooold..
We’ve had two weeks of the warmest weather in europe and I live in Northernest most part of Sweden(okay not really but really far up north). Must mean theres been cold overall in europe?
Although our warmth was exceptional, 29C in the shade on Friday. Wut.

If it gets any warmer, we’ll all freeze to death….

Paul Homewood said: “If they had forecast a colder than normal Spring, the 3/5ths would have been below the climatic average, whereas it was sat right in the centre of it.”
Thank Paul,
I think I’m misunderstanding the temperature summary, taking “near average” to mean the middle three fifths (obviously more likely than either the highest or lowest fifth) when perhaps it just means the middle fifth. Or maybe it doesn’t relate to the five categories at all.

Someone commented on skiing in Aviemore a couple weeks ago. Latest I ever skied it (~20 years ago) was late March.

I had my cast iron stove firebox going quite a bit this Spring in the north woods of Wisconsin. It amazes me that anyone wants to limit the use of heating options to save the climate. The discovery of fire was essential to preventing our extinction due to the challenges of climate. My lake was formed by the passing glaciers that also left boulders that are so massive they remain all around our area. It appears the forces of the universe do not wait for man’s proclamations of today.

William Astley is quite correct. (June 3, 2.10 am) However, during the ice age proper, Southern Australia did have more rain and Aborigines lived around Lake Mungo that had lots of lakes and water holes, and also the mainland as it now, was joined to New Guinea and Tasmania, as the sea levels were much lower. Also a point that the rain forests were less prominent. In fact most tree cover was reduced in the higher altitudes. Although little glacial cover all but possibly in parts of Tasmania and in the Snowy mountains. Aboriginal dream time stories, relate to the big wave, (tsunami’s perhaps or when the seas started to encroach the land) a volcanic eruption down south (5,000 years ago approximately) and the dingo never reached Tasmania as around 4,000 years ago it had also separated from the mainland. The Gulf of Carpentaria didn’t exist then either, nor Monsoonal weather patterns up North. It changed the economy of the Aborigines. The sea was closer to land, and up North, more wild birds, fish and shell fish to hunt, etc. Most Aboriginal tribes/clans had seasonal camps then and moved closer to the ocean or estuaries. And what we call the big wet, that still affects the Northern regions.
If you study ancient history, the Alps did experience a melt, (1970) when a volcanic eruption covered the ice and snow with brown dust, and this encouraged the melt, uncovering the mummified body of the ice-man. Or Ortzi. He was dated to around 3,500 BC., and had remained covered for approximate 5,000 years.
I also think as posters have mentioned, that Great Britain, also includes the off shore islands and particularly the Hebrides that still have solar nights and days. (I wonder how solar would thrive there).
O/T It is amazing that Tim Flannery has not turned up to 4 Senate meetings and when the coalition run this country cum September, then he will be the first to be sacked.

bushbunny says:
————————-
I enjoyed your posts. Reminded me of our long summer breaks in the North of England (and after school building of bonfires for Guy Fawkes night on Nov. 5th).
On the colds though – probably not a whole lot of rhinoviruses above 20,000 feet in the Himalayas. That’s one place where the polymerase chain reaction might have a problem finding a genome – unless Yetis get colds ….
…. (smiley face).

Hi again, well in Oz, we have the Nationals/Liberals coalition gaining immense popularity in my region, New England, after 10 years of Independent Tony Windsor who lost some when he sided with the ALP/Greens in a hung parliament, climate change/carbon tax and NBN (Optic fibre) but we have a preferential 2 PP voting system, and that can affect who is finally elected. Watch what happens on Sept 14th if not before, we think there will be a coalition (Nats/Libs) government installed. And Tim Flannery is first on the chopping block. Ironically, he lives in a cottage on the edge of Hawkesbury River outside Sydney. I was thinking of buying the place years ago, until I found the only easy way to gain access was by boat. Didn’t seem to worry him when he announced sea level rises, eh? But our debt, is amounting to 30,million dollars PER DAY. That’s more than 1 million dollars per day per capita, including children. The ALP/Greens government are not concerned as they feel our country’s assets can cope with the debt. They’ve mortgaged our country and every citizen who lives there, hoping the mining and carbon tax will fill in the black hole. What a bleedin’ laugh, these jokers who can’t do their sums nor have any idea, that Internationally, China is buying up all our water resources and large farms, and probably is one of our biggest creditors. Debt if not managed, manages you!