Reader View from the Solent writes:
Global warming shifts the Earth’s poles. North Pole heads for Greenland
“Global warming is changing the location of Earth’s geographic poles, according to a study in Geophysical Research Letters1.
Researchers at the University of Texas, Austin, report that increased melting of the Greenland ice sheet — and to a lesser extent, ice loss in other parts of the globe — have helped to shift the North Pole several centimetres east each year since 2005.
“There was a big change,” says geophysicist and lead author Jianli Chen. ”
Between 1982 and 2005, the pole drifted southeast towards northern Labrador, Canada, at a rate of about 2 milliarcseconds — or roughly 6 centimetres — per year. But in 2005, the pole changed course and began galloping east towards Greenland at a rate of more than 7 milliarcseconds per year. (which amounts to 21cm or ~8 1/4″- Anthony)
Scientists have long known that the locations of Earth’s geographic poles are not fixed. Over the course of the year, they shift seasonally as Earth’s distributions of snow, rain and humidity change. “Usually [the shift] is circular, with a wobble,” says Chen.
But underlying the seasonal motion is a yearly motion that is thought to be driven in part by continental drift. It was the change in that motion that caught the attention of Chen and his colleagues, who used data collected by NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to determine whether ice loss had shifted and accelerated the yearly polar drift.
GRACE’s twin probes measure changes in Earth’s gravity field, which can be used to track shifts in the distribution of water and ice. Chen’s team used GRACE data to model how melting ice caps affect Earth’s mass distribution. They found that recent accelerated ice loss and associated sea-level rise accounted for more than 90% of the post-2005 polar shift.
More at:
http://www.nature.com/news/polar-wander-linked-to-climate-change-1.12994
==============================================================
With global warming introducing that extra wobble, it is easy to create a model to project what effect global warming will have on the Earth in the future. /sarc – Anthony
have helped to shift the North Pole several centimetres east each year since 2005.
Every direction from the North Pole is South 🙂
it seems that Global Warming effects everything, I blame it for my hair loss, I keep pulling it out every time another crackpot idea is printed!
This one is serious gents. The galloping of the poles cannot be permitted to interfere with the climactic effects such as increase in numbers of ‘working girls’, giant crustaceans, or the realization of our evolutionary destiny as hobbits. Act now to stop this madness!
/sarc
Well that is gret news; a self correcting problem. Greenland melts-North pole moves to Greenland-Greenland freezes up-problem fixed, voilla !
Dust off the covers of “The Hab Theory”. Polar change from AGW will cause the planet to capsize.
Numerous catastrophes from the dramatic alteration of the poles, including melting of the polar ice caps and commencement of polar freezing in formerly temperate areas, will occur. Once again science fiction becomes reality.
Oh no! The pole shifters can now join up with the climate catastrophists who already have gobbled up the population bombists, the alien invasion watchers, and the all chemicals are bad nuts. At this rate of assimilation an unprecedented 97% of the absurdly gullible will be coalesced behind a single cause soon.
George E. Smith says-
“Greenland melts-North pole moves to Greenland-Greenland freezes up-problem fixed, voila !”
You.Are.Awesome!
Greenland is east of the magnetic north pole. The article does not distinguish between the “two” North Poles.
“But underlying the seasonal motion is a yearly motion that is thought to be driven in part by continental drift.”
I assume that continental drift is influenced by earthquakes. I hope the researchers looked to see if any major earthquakes happened in late 2004, perhaps in December…
Tell the kids / grandkids that they must stop CO2 now, else Santa won’t be able to navigate to their homes next Christmas.
Bugs Man says:
May 15, 2013 at 9:18 am
Tell the kids / grandkids that they must stop CO2 now, else Santa won’t be able to navigate to their homes next Christmas.
—
To the contrary, he will be able to operate directly out of a Walmart store in Oklahoma!
So, between 1982 and 2005, a time of alleged rapid global warming, the north magnetic pole moved at an average of 6 cm per year. no indication of accelerating pole velocity was noted over this time period. Then magically since 2005 we have an abrupt step up to 21 cm per year with a change of direction of 45 degrees to the original vector. the erratic nature of the magnetic pole movement does not disprove the Chen hypothesis but sure makes it suspect. But when scientists are given free license to attribute all phenomena to climate change, the degradation reflects on all scientists.
I’m not an expert by any means, but claiming to be able to measure pole movement to the centimeter seems like an awfully big claim to me. Maybe they are able to do it — I really don’t know, but if they are, what is their margin of error? Millimeters?
Really? Maybe AGW was responsible for why I couldn’t get dates when I was younger. The magnetic poles have always shifted. In fact, for those ignorant of the fact, there have been several pole shifts in the life of the planet. Maybe the increase in the velocity of the movement is indicative of an imminent pole reversal. This has been talked about for many years and according to the frequency of occurrence, we are due for one.
Michael Palmer:
That will mean that Santa will have to get a green card.
You just leave him alone to operate from his present base in Walmart (aka Asda) in Falkirk.
Is that really statistically significant?
Researchers at the University of Texas, Austin, report that increased melting of the Greenland ice sheet — and to a lesser extent, ice loss in other parts of the globe — have helped to shift the North Pole several centimetres east each year since 2005.
Obviously the south pole must have shifted an equal amount. How can they be so certain it was the “ice loss” that caused this situation rather than the ice gain in Antarctica? Perhaps we need to increase CO2 so there is a loss in Antarctica to balance the loss in the north.
Instead of the magnet poles flipping maybe this is a prelude to them literally flipping. We will have to watch this very carefully.
That’s nothing. Anthropogenic Global Warming is the cause of wrinkles. Between my birth in the 1950s and the late 1980s I gained on average around one new wrinkle per year. Since the advent of “serious” Global Warming in the late 80s I’ve seen that figure first double, then triple, and I estimate that currently I’m gaining around five new wrinkles every single year. If AGW doesn’t stop soon my whole body will need ironing.
Seriously, though: how many sharks does AGW have to jump before people stop watching?
Since this seems to be confusing some people, note that the article is talking about the geographic north pole, not the magnetic north pole. The north magnetic pole is currently moving 50-60 km per year.
Leif, what is north of the north pole?
Have soon before alarmists call for a “poll tax” to fix the problem?
You know this is really poor science. The last true pole shift was 790 million years ago. Pole wandering has occurred continuously. Continuously. As any 7th grade science student learns.
What is the deal with climatology? Do only those not ready for real science endeavor enter the field?
It’s too bad this article is paywalled, there a lot to be desired from the press release and abstract. It appears that they are claiming that sudden shifts in Chandler wobble are due to climate change. If so, then what caused sudden shifts in the 1850s and the 1920s?
http://www.technologyreview.com/view/415093/earths-chandler-wobble-changed-dramatically-in-2005/
http://arxiv.org/abs/0908.3732
Well, that accounts for the missing heat. It was powering the newly commissioned underground conveyor system.
Wow! Just when I thought I’ve seen and heard everything about AGW! Unbelievable what some of these so called climate scientists will do to sidle up to the government teat!
Precession, nutation, true polar wander – the earth’s axis has many motions all occurring simultaneously. Most are cyclic and driven by either the simple mechanics of solid bodies or by continental drift or differential rotation of the various parts. The folly here is ths unspoken assumption that such motions may be reliably extrapolated in a straight line.
“… have helped to shift the North Pole several centimetres east each year since 2005.”
Geeezzz, what’s big deal?
One DK9 could solve this problem. Just bulldoze those several centimeters back.
😉
As an alumnus of The University of Texas at Austin, I cringe at this latest bit from there.
This is the same university that was awarded the first non-government Cray supercomputer, and conducts many other actually useful research projects.
Roger Sowell,
BS Chemical Engineering 1977
I’m more concerned about the reducing strength of the magnetic poles than the natural wobble of the physical one. It’s not as if we’re going to fall off 🙂
Anthony’s ‘model’ is amusing. It brings back nostalgic memory of the book ‘The Hab Theory’.
But related to the reducing magnetic fields of the Magnetic Poles, I’d like to know:
What was the impact of solar particles being redirected by the earth’s magnetic field? Did that warm the core? Warm the atmosphere? Prevent the atmosphere from being warmed? What is the effect of the reduction on atmospheric temperature?
If anyone here can answer those questions, could you please give me a summary of the answers, and a link to the data?
Last year we were told the magnetic pole was heading for Russia. So what’s up with that??
“Ever since the magnetic north pole was first discovered in 1831, geologists have been tracking its progress. Unlike true north (which is marked by the Earth’s axis), magnetic north is constantly on the move due to changes in the planet’s molten core, which contains iron. Throughout most of recorded history, the pole has been positioned at or around Canada’s icy Ellesmere Island, but if it keeps moving at its current rate, it won’t be long before it sits above Russia instead. ”
http://www.google.ca/imgres?imgurl=http://www.greatdreams.com/solar/magnetic-north-pole.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.greatdreams.com/solar/changing_sun.htm&h=530&w=633&sz=15&tbnid=wWagcpuvIJLbKM:&tbnh=84&tbnw=100&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dnorth%2Bmagnetic%2Bpole%2Bshift%2Bmap%26tbm%3Disch%26tbo%3Du&zoom=1&q=north+magnetic+pole+shift+map&usg=__HvU1LT6cJBXdVM7P07k2GqvFRSM=&docid=USV6pVtbP5JOSM&sa=X&ei=67aTUfTbLMno0wHK2YFo&ved=0CEEQ9QEwBA&dur=4225
pat says: “What is the deal with climatology? Do only those not ready for real science endeavor enter the field?”
Only field that will have them, being it has unlimited Taxpayer funding.
Want to see science in climatology like real science in private sector? Tie GW funding to creation of practical energy solutions instead of paying for bell ringing Alarmism.
Did you know man-made global warming pulls the moon further closer to the earth? As you know, the moon orbits around the earth and orbit speeds and distances must be very precise. Heat causes air to expand and because of global warming the earth’s atmosphere has never been larger. This causes the moon to be slightly closer to the earth which, in turn, disrupts the delicate orbit the moon has with the earth. The moon helps regulate tides and the earth’s tilt. By getting closer to the earth, high tides will be higher and low tides lower which will greatly affect the coastal ecosystem. And when the earth’s tilt is shortened because the moon is closer to the earth this will affect seasons. Summer will not be as hot but winter will not be as cold which will cause ice caps the melt further aggravating the extreme tides. But because there is no friction in space the moon’s velocity stays the same which will eventually cause the moon to escape the orbit of the earth. The earth’s tilt will be then be unregulated causing planet to be inhospitable for all life except for a few months in a year. The part of the planet with the sun facing it will have extreme heat whereas the part away from the sun will have extreme cold. This will result in more extreme storms. Really, the pull from the earth on the moon is worse than we thought. We must act now before the moon’s distance reaches that critical point where it will be too late. The modals show that this will happen between 50 and 75 years from now.
(End sarcasm.)
Question – are the poles moving or is the mantle slipping over the molten core or both. The atmosphere slips, the mantle slips a tiny bit, the core spins faster than the mantle – I don’t see much accounting for what impacts this has on the environment and the only research I have seen is on earthquakes from around 2005 where they suggested similar wave forms emanating from the core might be related to earthquakes, and I haven’t seen anything since. Guess AGW caught the wave. 😉
Mike says:
May 15, 2013 at 9:33 am
Is that really statistically significant?
Depends on how much tax payer money you trying to stea…..errrrr….get in a grant
Add this to Brignell’s list. http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm
Something else to put on my worry list. I’ll reserve 2:00 PM -4:15 PM, May 16, 2023, so that I can give it proper attention and we may have a better idea of just how much melting results in how much polar movement and the button sorters will have time to sort out all the other things that may contribute.
Wayne Delbeke says: “Unlike true north (which is marked by the Earth’s axis), magnetic north is constantly on the move …”
Which way is true actual real North? Earth axis North, Magnetic North, Polar star North, North Pole (aka Santa), GPS satellite North, Geographic map North, Global Warming North (position varies by latest F.U.D.).
It was Larsen B wot did it
Now that they come to mention it, we defrosted our large upright fridge-freezer last week and got rid of a lot of unwanted ice. This explains why, when we went in to the kitchen the next day, all the fridge magnets had moved in a south-easterly direction..
Did they really get paid to tell us that the magnetic pole has shifted just over 3 metres during the last 31 years.
1982 to 2005 = 23 years x 6 cm’s = 1.38 metres (1 yd 18 in) South Easterly.
2005 to 2013 = 8 years x 21 cm’s = 1.68 metres (1 yd 30 in) Easterly.
Total Distance 3.06 metres (3 yd 12 in)
We are concerned that by 2044 (in 31 years time), at the same rate of calculation used by the University of Texas, all our fridge magnets will have travelled just over 3 metres towards the back door. Astonishing. And it’s all our fault.
ftp://ftp.csr.utexas.edu/pub/ggfc/papers/2013GL056164_preprint.pdf
Did anyone notice them saying just how much mass was lost by Greenland?
The AGW insanity goes on. Only phyiscal force applied to the insane will stop them
The Earth’s wobble is a natural physical phenomenon that has been postulated for centuries – Newton predicted the effect, and it was confirmed by Chandler in 1891. Although the premise that the melting ice sheets will affect the wobble because it redistributes the mass of the crust is correct, the misuse of this effect to heighten the alarm of AGW ignores the facts that normal tectonic movement, and indeed, the tidal movement of the oceans, contributes a far greater shifting of mass – next you’ll be hearing about how the melting of the glaciers and ice sheets, due to AGW, is slowing down the rotation of the Earth and increasing the rate of AGW.
Oops – appears they may have been talking about the axial north pole, my mistake, but I wonder what is new about this, I thought this was a well known phenomenon like precession? So, what of the several hundred variables did they determine was the driver? I’m going to wobble on this one (British term for a walk out or wildcat strike). Pun intended. Plus it fits with certain dictionary definitions:
-When a child is learning to ride his bike for the first time and is moving unsteadily forward, this is an example of when the child wobbles. (EARTH AXIS WOBBLE)
-When you are nervous and your voice shakes, this is an example of when your voice wobbles.
-When a politician says different things and changes his mind multiple times on an issue, this is an example of when he wobbles.
hum says:
May 15, 2013 at 9:46 am
Leif, what is north of the north pole?
Polaris…
GRACE – perhaps the worst ever NASA experiment.
I’m open to other proposals …
Global warming. Is there nothing it can’t do?
North pole doesn’t move, its location is always 90.N, 0E, it is the rest that moves around it 🙂
next you’ll be hearing about how the melting of the glaciers and ice sheets, due to AGW, is slowing down the rotation of the Earth and increasing the rate of AGW.
Well.The Earth’s rotation has slowed down.According to atomic clocks(I want one)The day on earth is…ready….1.7 milliseconds longer than they were a century ago. Must have been all the cow/horse flatulence.
So is global-warming maybe also to blame for the “wind rushing down the plain”? I guess it’s worse than we thought. Again.
Yes. The north geographic pole is the intersection of the axis of rotation with the figure of the Earth and the south geographic pole is the intersection of the axis of rotation with the figure of the Earth.
The intrepid authors did not check the south geographic pole position through time to support their hypothesis ! A serious omission and fatal flaw. Ha ha.
The paper is yet another example of what gets ‘passed’ by GRL and other JGR journals these days. This paper is dead before arrival !
Celestial mechanics need coordinates too. “East” is toward 90°E longitude (the y axis for IERS). And yes, it’s been suspected for some time now that recent true polar motion has been caused by Greenland ice melt–West Antarctica too. Nothing to be worried about. And apparently this motion constitutes short term behavior in a direction roughly opposite to this newly postulated long term movement. Telescopes and satellites are pretty good at figuring out which way is north and what time it is, to the nearest cm or so. –AGF
Vukcevic, In Soviet Union, North Pole goes to you!
Um. I thought that the poles were influenced by the Earth’s magnetic CORE. Silly me. Seems that polar ice (or lack of it) is of far greater importance in magnetic effects. I’ll take my freezer with me next time I go hiking (sarc off now).
I wonder if this just could be a case of confusion (yet again) between causation and correlation of which certain unscientific viewpoints are so enamoured.
The confusion persists. Please distinguish between:
1. Magnetic and axial north.
2. Rotational irreglarities and crust movement (relative to earth mass).
Rotational kinematics include precession, nutation (variable precession), Chandler Wobble (true nutation), none of which are entailed by true polar motion.
Sounds like good science. –AGF
Bugs Man says:
May 15, 2013 at 9:18 am
Too late. Our esteemed Canucklehead doom-screecher Dave Snoozuki has been scaring the bejesus out of kids for years.
Cause or effect?
Matt says:
May 15, 2013 at 9:27 am
You are right to be suspicious; the current method of locating the magnetic North Pole involves a crew in a rowboat funded by a whiskey distillery. I don’t think the inherent error in this procedure has been adequately taken into consideration. More here .
According to Phil jones the warmest two consecutive decades in Greenland were 1930 and 1940 so the pole must have migrated in a similar fashion 70 years ago as the glaciers melted
Tonyb
This paper is a reminder that the AGW ‘research’ bucket is still deep and well filled and there are plenty of snouts wanting to dip into it. One sign of the ‘death ‘ of AGW will be when it becomes the expectation rather then to rule to shore-horn such claims into ‘research’
[becomes the [exception] rather [than the] rule .. ? Mod]
“When mass is lost in one part of a spinning sphere, its spin axis will tilt directly towards the position of the loss, he says — exactly as Chen’s team observed for Greenland.” By this criterion if the Pacific disappeared, and all the earth beneath it, the axis of rotation would move to some place outside the earth. Maybe I’m missing something, or maybe I spoke too soon.
At any rate, any SLR attributable to Greenland ice melt should contribute to LOD at about .1ms/cm, constraining the constraints. Maybe we should look elsewhere for causes for the reversal. –AGF
Alan Watt,
Nit pick: whisky, not whiskey.
Now, if I were as elegant and flexible on “associative thinking” as many of the AWG crowd are, but I just had a devilish twist, and realized that the Van Allen Belts, and the upper atmosphere ionization MIGHT have in influence on long term WEATHER systems and therefore CLIMATE trends, I might think that this:
http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.tgo.uit.no/articl/magnorpe.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.tgo.uit.no/articl/roadto.html&h=530&w=633&sz=15&tbnid=wWagcpuvIJLbKM:&tbnh=90&tbnw=107&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dmap%2Bof%2Bhistoric%2Bnorth%2Bpole%2Bmovement%26tbm%3Disch%26tbo%3Du&zoom=1&q=map+of+historic+north+pole+movement&usg=__Ejn2HYP_4iAiJepScBJ_HsQrUiE=&docid=QJ1Py-gO6TEPaM&sa=X&ei=OP2TUc2nBIyE8QSB8YDwBg&ved=0CDYQ9QEwAw&dur=4814
Could tell us that certain patterns (mini-ice age anyone?) MIGHT, just MIGHT repeat themselves again. And also, I completely concur that the influence of the TRIVIAL temperature changes of the atmosphere, on events driven by the circulation of the MAGMA below the Earth’s crusts would have NOTHING TO DO with the pole movements or relative speeds.
I call complete bulloney on this one.
There are several agencies tracking everything about Earth’s rotation, pole position, atmospheric drag effects etc down to milli-seconds.
Nothing of the sort is happening.
http://hpiers.obspm.fr/eop-pc/images/pole.png
http://hpiers.obspm.fr/eop-pc/
Another one which goes back to 1972. A little difficult to know what it is showing but it certainly shows there is a distinct pattern which has nothing to do with Greenland ice.
http://data.iers.org/plots/FinalsAllIAU1980-XPOL-BULA.png
oldseadog says:
May 15, 2013 at 2:27 pm
From Oxford English Dictionary, Second Edition:
You say “potatoe”, I say “vodka”. And if we really want to be picky, it should be uisge beatha from the Gaelic for “water of life”.
But you’re right, the “Row to the Pole” stunt was funded by the “Old Polteney” distillery, which being in Scotland, would naturally call their product “whisky”. However if I put “whisky” in the comment, wordpress flags it as a spelling error, but approves of “whiskey”.
Speaking of which, WUWT and WordPress spell checking? When I first started commenting here it would complain about American spelling for “color”, “rumor”, “center”, etc. Now it complains about British spelling for same.
Bill Illis says:
May 15, 2013 at 2:34 pm
=========================
Baloney, maybe, but not for those reasons. Your graphs are for wander of the axis of rotation, not true polar wander. Imagine when the dry Mediterranean basin filled up 5my, and how that would have moved the earth’s center of mass, hence its axis of rotation. That’s true polar wander. On a small scale the Aral Sea has done the same in recent decades, and ground water depletion is hardly symmetrical. –AGF
Since when did ice exert a magnetic influence? I guess since it was told to by AGW godfathers.
I wonder if these researchers are aware that the earth has an iron core, rotating at a different speed to the rest of the earth – or whether they believe in a spherical earth at all. After all the CO2 backradiation models are all based on a flat circle earth like Discworld or Narnia.
The “AGW Doom” PR machine churns on endlessly, with unflappable vigor. It is mass hysteria on a scale never before seen.
agfosterjr says:
May 15, 2013 at 2:51 pm
Your graphs are for wander of the axis of rotation, not true polar wander.
——
Okay you should explain what is different between the two.
When I was a wide- eyed Boy Scout, there was an 11 degree declination around here between magnetic and true North, which has now changed to only 4 degrees.
I recently bought a box of used US military compasses (Suunto MC-2G) which were all set on 4 degrees. As it turns out, Iraq and Afghanistan are also the same declination as Oklahoma.
Here are just two of the great many things caused by anthropogenic global warming, peer reviewed of course.
Earth’s rotation to slow down
Earth’s rotation to speed up
The trace rise of the magical trace gas Co2 is a sight to behold. It is a magical gas with all kinds of effects. Here’s another:
Winters maybe warmer
Winters maybe colder
What a pile of shite. I have more idiotic nonsense if you like.
Jimbo says:
May 15, 2013 at 5:35 pm
Here are just two of the great many things caused by anthropogenic global warming, peer reviewed of course.
Earth’s rotation to slow down
Earth’s rotation to speed up
========================================
You will note that the steric SLR contribution to LOD is of an order of magnitude lower than the eustatic contribution: “−0.12 ms within 200 years,” That’s 1cm worth of eustatic rise. And it probably ignores rebound which, for all we know is currently increasing total land area.
–AGF
Bill Illis says:
May 15, 2013 at 3:10 pm
agfosterjr says:
May 15, 2013 at 2:51 pm
Your graphs are for wander of the axis of rotation, not true polar wander.
——
Okay you should explain what is different between the two.
======================================================
Let’s start with the simplest part, which you probably know already, precession: every 26ky the north star makes a circle in the sky with no change in the axis relative to solid earth. This is caused mainly by the moon, which doesn’t maintain a constant angle relative to the equator–its 18 year cycle in the precession of its orbit causes variation in the earth’s precession which is called nutation, but is not analogous to nutation of a spinning top. The nutation of basic physics is called Chandler Wobble in its terrestrial manifestation. All these are variation in the earth’s axis relative to its orbit around the sun or to the stars–not relative to the earth’s crust.
The ice of the last glacial maximum moved the center of mass of the earth northward by tens of meters, and lowered sea level in the southern hemisphere by similar amounts. To the extent that this mass transfer doesn’t run parallel to the polar axis, there will be angular polar shift. As Pleistocene lakes dried up they will also contributed to lateral and angular alteration of the axis. There is probably some asymetric movement of the earth’s core and in the mantel adding further to polar wander. All these processes result in movement of the earth’s center of mass, and to the extent that such movement runs non-longitudinally along the axis, the axis of rotation shifts relative to the solid earth.
The two types of motion are not necessarily separated in observation, in which case axis wander must be modeled out, leaving true polar wander as a residual effect, just as tidal effects have to be modeled out of LOD measurement. Am I making sense? –AGF
Well, a shift in the geographic pole around 2005 couldn’t possible have anything to do with the massive tectonic shifts that happened in the Indian Ocean tsunami / earthquake, since that occurred a full five days before 2005…
https://www.google.com/search?q=tsunami+2004&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en&client=safari#itp=open0
This is surreal.
We and the media are discussing the idiotic warmists’ papers, that are written by activists who have no understanding of the basic physical mechanisms. What is the point? Ask your dog to explain what causes the glacial/interglacial cycle.
Hint:
There needs to be an explanation as to what is causing this temperature change graph. Imagine Canada, the Northern US states, and Northern Europe covered with a 2 mile thick ice sheet. That has happened repeatedly, cyclically. The physical cause of the glacial/interglacial cycle is not insolation at 65N in June and July.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f7/Five_Myr_Climate_Change.svg
We are going to experience either the cooling phase of a Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle or a Heinrich event, due to the abrupt change to solar magnetic cycle. (Geomagnetic excursions correlate with the Heinrich events. The Heinrich events are very, very, strong Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles and are capable of terminating interglacials. Look at the temperature graph of the last 5 million years.) The sudden abrupt change to the geomagnetic field has happened before. Ice sheet melting does not cause abrupt changes to the geomagnetic field.
Hint: What is causing the current observed South Atlantic geomagnetic field anomaly? There is no ice sheet melting in that region of the planet. The geomagnetic field intensity has been reduced by more than 30% in that region. The South Atlantic geomagnetic field anomaly is the same region where there are anomalously cold ocean surface temperatures.
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.5.13.2013.gif
This graph shows the cyclic warming and cooling, the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles.
Greenland ice temperature, last 11,000 years determined from ice core analysis, Richard Alley’s paper.
http://www.climate4you.com/images/GISP2%20TemperatureSince10700%20BP%20with%20CO2%20from%20EPICA%20DomeC.gif
http://www.climate4you.com/
At the above site, the following graph, a comparison of the past solar cycles 21, 22, and 23 to the new cycle 24 is provided. That graph is update every six months or so.
http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_recent_cycles.png
There is correlation of planetary temperature change with abrupt changes to the geomagnetic field. The geomagnetic field is the cause of the abrupt climate change.
The sun is causing the abrupt change to the geomagnetic field. There are dozens of anomalies that are caused by and explained by the fundamental mechanism. (The solar models are fundamentally incorrect.) This is the explanation for the Uranus/Neptune’s magnetic field anomalies, the spiral galaxy rotational anomaly, and the anomalous tightly controlled spiral galaxy evolution.
Sigh. Sigh. Sigh. This is the most important scientific discovery in terms of impact on the biosphere and to other fields of science in the last 100 years.
The solar magnetic cycle change is causing false readings from the GRACE satellite. The same phenomenon/physical mechanism is also causing the abrupt change to the North geomagnetic pole drift velocity. Hint: The solar magnetic cycle change is causing the abrupt change to the geomagnetic field. This (abrupt changes to the geomagnetic field which in turn cause abrupt changes to climate) has happened cyclically.
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2003/2003GL017115.shtml
Timing of abrupt climate change: A precise clock by Stefan Rahmstorf
Many paleoclimatic data reveal a approx. 1,500 year cyclicity of unknown origin. A crucial question is how stable and regular this cycle is. An analysis of the GISP2 ice core record from Greenland reveals that abrupt climate events appear to be paced by a 1,470-year cycle with a period that is probably stable to within a few percent; with 95% confidence the period is maintained to better than 12% over at least 23 cycles. This highly precise clock points to an origin outside the Earth system; oscillatory modes within the Earth system can be expected to be far more irregular in period.
http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0612145v1
The Antarctic climate anomaly and galactic cosmic rays
Borehole temperatures in the ice sheets spanning the past 6000 years show Antarctica repeatedly warming when Greenland cooled, and vice versa (Fig. 1) [13, 14]. North-south oscillations of greater amplitude associated with Dansgaard-Oeschger events are evident in oxygenisotope data from the Wurm-Wisconsin glaciation[15]. The phenomenon has been called the polar see-saw[15, 16], but that implies a north-south symmetry that is absent. Greenland is better coupled to global temperatures than Antarctica is, and the fulcrum of the temperature swings is near the Antarctic Circle. A more apt term for the effect is the Antarctic climate anomaly.
This geomagnetic excursion occurs at the same time as the Younger Dryas, Heinrich event, at which time the earth at the peak of insolation at 65N went from interglacial warm to glacial cold, with 70% of the cooling occurring in less than a decade. The planet remained in the Younger Dryas glacial cold for a thousand years.
This paper is a good review of the data concerning the Younger Dryas. It is interesting to look at the development of the different hypotheses and mechanisms from a scientific historical standpoint as well as pure science. The authors postulated TSI variance mechanism is not correct. The solar magnetic cycle was interrupted. When the solar magnetic cycle re-started there was an abrupt change to the geomagnetic field, a geomagnetic excursion. The geomagnetic excursion caused the abrupt cooling event. Due to the orbital configuration at the time restart the solar strikes ultimately caused the geomagnetic field strength to increase.
The current orbital configuration will cause the geomagnetic field intensity to decrease and not recover.
There is an abrupt change to C14 that correlates with the timing of the abrupt cooling of the Younger Dryas. The next paper is written by geomagnetic specialists how have determined a geomagnetic excursion occurred at the same time as the Younger Dryas.
Reduced solar activity as a trigger for the start of the Younger Dryas?
http://cio.eldoc.ub.rug.nl/root/2000/QuatIntRenssen/
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/003358947790031X
The Gothenburg Magnetic Excursion
Abstract
The Gothenburg Magnetic Excursion in a broad sense ranges from 13,750 to 12,350 years BP and ends with the Gothenburg Magnetic Flip at 12,400−12,350 years BP (= the Fjärås Stadial in southern Scandinavia) with an equatorial VGP position in the central Pacific. The Gothenburg Magnetic Flip is recorded in five closely dated and mutually correlated cores in Sweden. In all five cores, the inclination is completely reversed in the layer representing the Fjärås Stadial dated at 12,400−12,350 years BP. The cores were taken 160 km apart and represent both marine and lacustrine environments. The Gothenburg Magnetic Flip represents the shortest excursion and the most rapid polar change known at present. It is also hitherto the far best-dated paleomagnetic event. The Gothenburg Magnetic Excursion and Flip are proposed as a standard magnetostatigraphic unit.
http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~rtp1/BardPapers/responseCourtillotEPSL07.pdf
Response to Comment on “Are there connections between Earth’s magnetic field and climate?, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 253, 328–339, 2007” by Bard, E., and Delaygue, M., Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., in press, 2007
Also, we wish to recall that evidence of a correlation between archeomagnetic jerks and cooling events (in a region extending from the eastern North Atlantic to the Middle East) now covers a period of 5 millenia and involves 10 events (see f.i. Figure 1 of Gallet and Genevey, 2007). The climatic record uses a combination of results from Bond et al (2001), history of Swiss glaciers (Holzhauser et al, 2005) and historical accounts reviewed by Le Roy Ladurie (2004). Recent high-resolution paleomagnetic records (e.g. Snowball and Sandgren, 2004; St-Onge et al., 2003) and global geomagnetic field modeling (Korte and Constable, 2006) support the idea that part of the centennial-scale fluctuations in 14C production may have been influenced by previously unmodeled rapid dipole field variations. In any case, the relationship between climate, the Sun and the geomagnetic field could be more complex than previously imagined. And the previous points allow the possibility for some connection between the geomagnetic field and climate over these time scales.
Great idea. Just took a peek at the WarmList and if the page is correct, it hasn’t been updated for about a year. That’s a shame.
@Anthony … perhaps you might consider contacting them and seeing if you can take over the list here, or just copy it as the core of a new list and let us crowd source for updates? I really can’t think of a better place for it to be located. ( I think the same might go for mirroring the John Daly site as well ).
It’s absolutely jaw dropping. These wild conjectures with nothing (or microscopically small) justifications behind them. I say, let’s just cast goat entrails – probably will prove to be just as accurate. .
“Chen’s team used GRACE data to model how melting ice caps affect Earth’s mass distribution”
I bet they did and they were paid handsomely their amazing effort. Were the models blond or brunette, male or female, or a politically correct balance of both?
sarc.
What about UP? That is a direction. 🙂
It is understood that some shifts in rotational axis alignment with comparison to earth’s exposure to the sun, may occur because of “surface” mass changes, itself a partial result of surface temperatures changes.
However it is more than likely that the axial changes themselves have a primary effect on “global warming” because of the solar incidence relationship with different earth surfaces and this may possibly be contributing more influence than claimed for CO2.
In other words, more likely the other way round – first the rotational axis shift, then the warming/cooling result.
Is this a reasonable hypothesis?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Pole
If asymmetrical redistribution/reduction of the cryosphere caused the axis of rotation to change i would expect there to be an increase in significant earthquakes and a possible increase in awakening volcanoes.
Since the earth is affected by all these nutations;
Perhaps we should encourage our Representatives to submit a bill that would neuter the earth.
It seems that their off to a good start as it is.
Eventually, one of our esteemed would point out that earth is naturally known as “mother” so the appropriate procedure would be a humanectomy.
Ban dihydrogen monoxide today.
It’s for the children!
“””””…..Justthinkin says:
May 15, 2013 at 11:48 am
next you’ll be hearing about how the melting of the glaciers and ice sheets, due to AGW, is slowing down the rotation of the Earth and increasing the rate of AGW.
Well.The Earth’s rotation has slowed down.According to atomic clocks(I want one)The day on earth is…ready….1.7 milliseconds longer than they were a century ago. Must have been all the cow/horse flatulence…….””””””
Well that is no mystery. It is well known that the moon was once much closer to earth than it is now. The days were shorter and the months were shorter.
But as earth rotates under the moon’s gravitational attraction, it pulls out bulges on both sides of the earth, roughly in line with the moon. Well we all know about the tides. There are two bulges, because the water towards the moon sees a higher gravity than does the center of the earth so it bulges towards the moon. On the opposite side of the earth, the water sees lower gravity than the center of the earth, so it bulges away from the moon.
Well just great, we all like the tides. But nobody told the rocks that they were not subject to the moon’s gravity, so the solid surface bulges towards, and away from the moon as well as the water.
Now just imagine if you saw a wave of ground go whistling down your street (East-West) at a thousand miles an hour, twice a day. That might generate a lot of frictional heat, contorting all that solid rock, and it also sets up a torque, trying to stop the earth from rotating by grabbing those love handle wave bulges.
The net result is that the earth loses angular momentum and energy, and the days grow longer. The energy doesn’t vanish; it gets transferred to the moon increasing its angular momentum, and driving the moon to a higher orbit, so it is slowly receding from the earth. Meanwhile exactly the same process is going on , on the moon, so it too, is slowing its “daily” rotation rate, and also watching the earth drift away from it. The effect is mirror image, and angular momentum, is slowly transferred from the body rotation (daily), to orbital rotation of the earth and moon rotating about their common CM.
Scientist can easily measure these minute changes. You have no idea how accurate these atomic clocks are. Hewlett Packard (now Agilent Technologies) used to make, and maybe still does a Cesium beam atomic clock, about the size of a suitcase, that was accurate to a few parts in 10^13.
These were often flown in satellites for relativistic measurements.
At one time, the HP metrology lab, actually maintained TWO Cesium clocks; one tracking NIST time, and the other one tracking the US Naval Observatory time. They were proud of the fact that they had the only commercial product that knew the difference.
One of the two clocks claimed that the universe was one day older than the other one did.
As I recall, when it was decided to fix the problem, and have just one (US) time standard, I believe it was NIST who blinked, and decided the Navy was correct. Dunno whether we lost a day, or gained a day in that deal.
Nowadays, that level of atomic timekeeping is about like using a grandfather clock. The world’s best atomic clocks are so accurate it would blow your mind.
So they probably can tell when you make a U-turn on any east-west road.
If I understand the mechanisms, the planet is going to anomalously start to cool. As most people are aware there has been a sudden anomalous change to the solar magnetic cycle. Normally when the solar magnetic cycle slows down, the planet cools. In this case there is something that is inhibiting the mechanisms that would normally (all else being the same) cause cooling, something is removing ions from the atmosphere.
The something that is removing ions from the atmosphere is also causing the North geomagnetic pole drift velocity to increase from 15 km/year to 60 km/year. The cause of the North geomagnetic pole drift velocity increase is not melting of the Greenland Ice sheet.
If and when there is anomalous cooling I will submit a series of articles explaining the mechanisms and what to expect next.
Concurrent with the sudden acceleration of the North geomagnetic pole drift velocity from 15 km/year to 60 km/year, there is now observed lightning accompanied with volcanic eruptions. (Look at the picture in the attached link.)
There is correlation of past increases in volcanic eruptions (simultaneously in both hemispheres, to explain what is observed a mechanism that can cause an increase in volcanic eruption in both hemispheres and change the geomagnetic field is required) with solar magnetic cycle minimums and with abrupt geomagnetic field changes. A side effect of how the sun causes the geomagnetic field to abruptly change is an increase in volcanic eruptions.
It is odd there is no discussion in the media concerning the South Atlantic geomagnetic field anomaly. This is indication that a geomagnetic excursion is taking place. There is also observational evidence that the geomagnetic excursion is accelerating.
The geomagnetic field specialists have found that there are cyclic abrupt changes to the geomagnetic field. The magnitude of the changes and frequency of the changes cannot be explained by a liquid core change forcing function.
http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/416/
Is the geodynamo process intrinsically unstable?
Recent palaeomagnetic studies suggest that excursions of the geomagnetic field, during which the intensity drops suddenly by a factor of 5 to 10 and the local direction changes dramatically, are more common than previously expected. The `normal’ state of the geomagnetic field, dominated by an axial dipole, seems to be interrupted every 30 to 100 kyr; it may not therefore be as stable as we thought. …. ….Recent studies suggest that the Earth’s magnetic field has fallen dramatically in magnitude and changed direction repeatedly since the last reversal 700 kyr ago (Langereis et al. 1997; Lund et al. 1998). These important results paint a rather different picture of the long-term behaviour of the field from the conventional one of a steady dipole reversing at random intervals: instead, the field appears to spend up to 20 per cent of its time in a weak, non-dipole state (Lund et al. 1998).
http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/4631
New geomagnetic field observations in the South Atlantic Anomaly region
The Earth’s magnetic field has a distinct dipolar structure. More than 90% of the field strength at the Earth’s surface can be attributed to an axial dipole currently tilted by approximately 10.2° with respect to the rotation axis. However, the field is anomalously weak in a region centered in the South Atlantic and covering parts of southern Africa and South America. This area, where the field reaches less than 60% of the field strength at comparable latitudes, is known as the South Atlantic Anomaly
(SAA, fig. 1a). It is caused by an increasing patch of opposite magnetic flux compared to the dipole direction at the core-mantle boundary (Bloxham and Gubbins, 1985) and its centre has moved from southern Africa to South America over the last 300 years (Mandea et al., 2007). The local weakening in field intensity allows energetic particles and cosmic rays to penetrate much deeper into the magnetosphere and atmosphere than in other regions, resulting in significant space weather effects such as satellite outages (Heirtzler et al., 2002).
The global dipole strength is currently decreasing at a very high rate (e.g. Gubbins, 1987; Hulot et al., 2002), but the intensity change is distributed non-uniformly over the globe. Mapping the long-term global secular variation from ground observations or the difference between magnetic field models derived from Magsat (1980) and CHAMP satellite data (2000 to present) reveal that in some regions the field intensity is even increasing (fig. 1b). The strongest decrease is observed in the southern African – Southern Atlantic region. Studies of magnetic field distribution at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) have shown that a patch of reverse flux with respect to the dominating dipole direction exists (Gubbins and Bloxham, 1985), which has been growing continuously since it appeared around 1695 (Jackson et al., 2000). Secular variation at the CMB is exceptionally strong beneath southern Africa, exhibiting a pattern of propagating wave-like structures (Dormy and Mandea, 2005).
Lightning Alaska’s Redoubt Volcano
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/04/photogalleries/volcano-lightning-pictures/
April 14, 2009–Lightning, which often accompanies large eruptions, illuminates a giant ash cloud from Alaska’s Redoubt Volcano, southwest of Anchorage, in a March 28 picture by an amateur astronomer. (See daytime pictures of the Redoubt Volcano eruption.) … ….”We don’t always get lightning [when a volcano erupts],” said Steve McNutt, research professor of volcano seismology at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, who was involved in the project. “And that’s one of the things we’re trying to figure out.”
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/16/earths-ionosphere-drops-to-a-new-low/
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/12/081215121601.htm
Boundary Between Earth’s Upper Atmosphere And Space Has Moved To Extraordinarily Low Altitudes, NASA Instruments Document
During the first months of CINDI operations the transition between the ionosphere and space was found to be at about 260 miles (420 km) altitude during the nighttime, barely rising above 500 miles (800 km) during the day. These altitudes were extraordinarily low compared with the more typical values of 400 miles (640 km) during the nighttime and 600 miles (960 km) during the day.
The geomagnetic excursions cause the planet to abruptly cool, not insulation at N65 in June and July. An observation to support the assertion that insolation at N65 does not control the glacial/interglacial cycle is recent finding that Southern Hemisphere and Northern Hemisphere warm and cool synchronously which is does not make sense as the solar insolation for the two hemispheres is 180 degrees out of phase.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/view.php?id=24476
Glacial Records Depict Ice Age Climate in Synch Worldwide
An answer to the long-standing riddle of whether the Earth’s ice ages occurred simultaneously in both the Southern and Northern hemispheres is emerging from the glacial deposits found in the high desert east of the Andes.
Using a technique to read the changes imposed by cosmic rays – charged, high-energy particles that bombard the Earth from outer space – on atoms found in the mineral quartz, the UW-Madison researchers were able to precisely date a sequence of moraines, ridge-like glacial features composed of an amalgam of rocks, clay, sand and gravel. Their results show that glacial ice in South America reached its apex 22,000 years ago and had begun to disappear by 16,000 years ago.
“We’ve been able to get quite precise ages directly on these glacial deposits,” says Singer, whose specialty is geochronology. “What we found was that the structure of the last South American ice age is indistinguishable from the last major glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere.”… ….What’s more, the group found evidence that the last major glacial period prior to the last ice age, from a time dating to 150,000 years ago, mirrored North American climate for the same period. … …“During the last two times in Earth’s history when glaciation occurred in North America, the Andes also had major glacial periods,” says Kaplan.
The results address a major debate in the scientific community, according to Singer and Kaplan, because they seem to undermine a widely held idea that global redistribution of heat through the oceans is the primary mechanism that drove major climate shifts of the past.
The implications of the new work, say the authors of the study, support a different hypothesis: that rapid cooling of the Earth’s atmosphere synchronized climate change around the globe during each of the last two glacial epochs.
“Because the Earth is oriented in space in such a way that the hemispheres are out of phase in terms of the amount of solar radiation they receive, it is surprising to find that the climate in the Southern Hemisphere cooled off repeatedly during a period when it received its largest dose of solar radiation,” says Singer. “Moreover, this rapid synchronization of atmospheric temperature between the polar hemispheres appears to have occurred during both of the last major ice ages that gripped the Earth.”
http://www.pnas.org/content/101/17/6341.full
Bipolar correlation of volcanism with millennial climate change
Analyzing data from our optical dust logger, we find that volcanic ash layers from the Siple Dome (Antarctica) borehole are simultaneous (with >99% rejection of the null hypothesis) with the onset of millennium-timescale cooling recorded at Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2; Greenland). These data are the best evidence yet for a causal connection between volcanism and millennial climate change and lead to possibilities of a direct causal relationship. Evidence has been accumulating for decades that volcanic eruptions can perturb climate and possibly affect it on long timescales and that volcanism may respond to climate change. If rapid climate change can induce volcanism, this result could be further evidence of a southern-lead North–South climate asynchrony. Alternatively, a volcanic-forcing viewpoint is of particular interest because of the high correlation and relative timing of the events, and it may involve a scenario in which volcanic ash and sulfate abruptly increase the soluble iron in large surface areas of the nutrient-limited Southern Ocean, stimulate growth of phytoplankton, which enhance volcanic effects on planetary albedo and the global carbon cycle, and trigger northern millennial cooling. Large global temperature swings could be limited by feedback within the volcano–climate system.
So, what has been the effect of the added land ice in Antarctica and why did they ignore it? There’s no way to determine the effect at one pole without understanding what is happening at the other one. Once again we see academia unable to do real science.
So how many centimetres were the poles out of alignment 20 40 60 100 2000 years ago .Has anyone checked.
Latest Climate Change Scare Story.Yeah yeah.
So what’s the latest with Angelina Jolie and Kim Kardasian has she dropped yet.
Leif beat me to it with the first comment of the thread. There is no East from the North Pole.
Let us remember that the 6 gigatons of anthropogenic CO2 per year into the atmosphere, gets pretty heavy over the decades and there is no telling what such a weight couldn’t do.
George E. Smith says:
May 15, 2013 at 11:08 pm
… atomic clocks(I want one) …
… Hewlett Packard (now Agilent Technologies) used to make, and maybe still does a Cesium beam atomic clock, about the size of a suitcase, that was accurate to a few parts in 10^13 …
Your wish is my command, and it’s a hell of a lot smaller than a suitcase:
http://www.symmetricom.com/media/files/downloads/product-datasheets/DS_SA%2045s_CSAC.pdf
“Shepherdfj says:
May 16, 2013 at 9:59 am”
Lets not forget the estimated 40,000 tons of “space dust” that has been falling to earth annually…for ~4.5 billion years.
“””””……Billy Liar says:
May 16, 2013 at 11:17 am
George E. Smith says:
May 15, 2013 at 11:08 pm
… atomic clocks(I want one) …
… Hewlett Packard (now Agilent Technologies) used to make, and maybe still does a Cesium beam atomic clock, about the size of a suitcase, that was accurate to a few parts in 10^13 …
Your wish is my command, and it’s a hell of a lot smaller than a suitcase:…..””””””
Well Billy, I don’t quite know how to break this too you , but in Dec 1964, I built what was the very first commercial test instrument, built entirely of integrated circuits; (Minuteman ICs from Fairchild, and Motorola) a 20 MHz general purpose counter-timer (Monsanto Model 1000). And it had in it, an ordinary quartz crystal oscillator; oven controlled, and that off the shelf crystal oscillator was more accurate than the specs of that gizmo you just put up.
I could have bought a parts in 10^11 crystal, if I had wanted to pay the money.
“””””…..mpainter says:
May 16, 2013 at 7:42 am
Leif beat me to it with the first comment of the thread. There is no East from the North Pole……”””””
And your addition to Leif’s information , is exactly what ??
William Astley says:
May 16, 2013 at 3:50 am
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Thanks for the post, most interesting “food” for mindful digestion.
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@jim G, i did some research on dihydrogen monoxide and am very concerned…MSM and Yahoo need to be informed…
http://www.dhmo.org/msds/MSDS-DHMO-Kemp.pdf
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George E. Smith says:
May 15, 2013 at 11:08 pm
I thought the moon did not spin…learning is living; thanks too.
William Astley says:
May 16, 2013 at 3:50 am
A side effect of how the sun causes the geomagnetic field to abruptly change is an increase in volcanic eruptions.
The Sun does not change the main geomagnetic field generated in the core of the Earth.