Greenland ice melt overestimated due to satellite data algorithm issue

I believe if you changed all the catastrophic man-made global warming rhetoric, to a reference of the worldwide economy, rather than a reference to worldwide climate, the alarmists would be 100 percent accurate.

It would appear the knowledge that an increasingly large number of climateers outside the government paid circle are keeping a careful and expert eye on their “data” is having a very positive effect. Shoddy work erring on the side of the warmers is no longer acceptable and is quickly identified and, encouragingly, is now being corrected. Kudos to all you honest scientists.

Now try to spot a watermelon saying what good news this is! More difficult than finding an unbroken hockey stick..

Algorithms and models, not the reality, are über alles in the so-called climate science.

@ Lank remembers says: March 21, 2013 at 11:20 pm
Great post! Thanks for reminding us.

If Greenland is loosing all this ice over the past 30+ years, I’d dearly love to know how they explain the Glacier Girl.
For those here who might be unfamiliar, it’s easy to find the story online, and it’s truly fascinating. Essentially back during WWII, a small squadron of fighter planes had to ditch on Greenland. On the glaciers. About 50 years later, they went back and dug down through about 268 feet of ice to get to one of the P-38 fighters. They took her apart down in the hole, lifted her out piece by piece, Then they moved her to a more conducive location, put her back together and flew her.
Soooooo, to the researchers and scientists who think there’s been so much global warming causing huge ice melts…. just how the heck did a plane on the surface wind up buried under 268 ft. of snow and ice accumulated over those 50 years, during which so much of this global warming occurred????!!

O.T., but in other news, heavy snow has fallen overnight throughout much of the UK, and continues to fall – and fall FAST. It’s a winter wonderland outside my window right now – and we’re three weeks into March! But I know it must be an illusion, because these days children just don’t know what snow is, because it NEVER snows these days. Yep, I’ll be wearing my shorts and Hawaiian shirt as is befitting for these warmer times.

Al Gore-rithm issue;)

I remember commenting on a WUWT story a few years ago that someone needs to do spot checks on sea ice “data” from overflights. Is that going on? I look at the variation in sea ice coverage between algorithms, and the difficulty of figuring out what is ice vs. not ice, and I wonder how long until we find out that the Barents sea isn’t quite as ice-free as sea ice satellites make them to be.
Speaking of seeing things, I ran across the Dogger Bank incident (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogger_Bank_incident) where the Russian navy destroyed British fishing boats because they thought they were Japanese. There was also a line in there about the American navy being so spooked by torpedoes that they fired at “ocean swells, trains on land, and rocks along the coastline, believing them to be enemy torpedo boats”. Just saying, it doesn’t require a computer to see things that aren’t there or vice versa, but computers help.

One would have thought that there would be some automated validation of these satellite metrics. There are numerous automated ground observation stations even in the arctic ocean there are automated buoys reporting weather and temperature data. There could be a rigorous cross check between the sensors that would have shown up inaccuracies very rapidly. Similarly for ocean temperatures now there are ARGO floats reporting SST they should be cross checked against satellite SST. As it is these ‘climate scientists’ take weather reports and rush off ito their pet politicians to trigger more non-science policies.

Last year March here in Virginia was very warm, though not quite a record as I recall. This year is very different–cold, occasionally snowy, dreary. Two days ago it got to 62 degrees F here, the first day in the 60s this March, and likely the last according to the local weatherfellas. Yesterday our Weatherbug said the high was 46, but that was at midnight; by dawn it was 30 degrees, and by 7 a.m. it was 26 and snowing briskly. Not much stuck because the ground was so warm, but the grass and cars did get a white coating for a while. The high for the actual daylight was 35 with a brisk wind, making garden work impossible. How I have wished for just enough global warming to get some work done! Seeds need planting, beds need cleaning, etc., etc. Not in the outlook–more snow likely by Monday morning.

For johnmarshall: Nothing about the warmists scare reports is real by definition!

Our algo was off but we’re still believers in the church of global warming. By the way, we need a 14% increase in our funding. Bonuses and such.

This may seem like a stupid question, but don’t these “scientists” and computer “experts” validate their satellite data, images and models by actually going to a sampling of sites and getting real data and photographs? Without validation, what these people are doing is not “science”, it’s computer games!
By the way, I’ve become real familiar with the errors occurring in the GISS maps used by county planners and the various on-line mapping services. Errors such as drainage ditches labeled as roads, large farm equipment labeled as barns or sheds or silos, and so on. The GISS people don’t do a good job of validating their programs either.

So “Greenland Is Melting! Melting!” was front page news. Will this correction appear on Page 1, or will it be buried somewhere in the classifieds?

“This may seem like a stupid question, but don’t these “scientists” and computer “experts” validate their satellite data, images and models by actually going to a sampling of sites and getting real data and photographs?”
Isn’t that what the story says they did? They noticed the model was wrong by checking measurements on the ground; so they fixed the model.

Am I missing something here? Why would something which is readily observable have to be “modelled”?

Can some genius at NSIDC please generate an outline of the 1500m contour on Greenland, place it on their anomaly map (Fig 2) and set the color inside the contour to white.
The anomaly map would then appear a tad more honest: showing fictitious anomalies below the surface of the ice is somewhat bizarre to say the least.

How lucky do you have to be to find all the ‘mistakes’ work in favour of the ideas your pushing ?

Now where is Mr. CostCo who was defending NASA’s Greenland ice loss and sea level measurements via satellite (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/03/why-ice-loss-and-sea-level-measurements-via-satellite-and-the-new-shepard-et-al-paper-are-highly-uncertain-at-the-moment/)
doubting possible issues of unknown errors and unaccounted for drift with remarks like:
“I have technical knowledge in the satellite and instrument domains …”
Mr. CostCo: “Basically you’re insinuating that the glaciological community as a whole does not know how to assess errors and neither does Nature/Science etc”
Wonder what Mr. CostCo would deem failing to properly assess errors that allowed a hosed algorithm involved in measuring Greenland’s Ice Sheets to go undetected until after Shepherd et al paper was touted? Possibly the old ‘Nothing to See Here, Move Along’?

Great story with details on “Glacier Girl” … above comment by Rational Db8 on WWII planes buried in Greenland.
http://www.damninteresting.com/exhuming-the-glacier-girl/
Do we know which glacier was it that the 8 planes landed on?
Is it one of the “fast melting” glaciers listed As Rational noted, if so, how did they get buried in 268 feet of accumulated snow in 50 years?

Ever wonder why it’s called Greenland and not Whiteland? They once farmed here and raised live stock. I guess global warming ruined that for them. If the ice ever melts they will be back to what it was 1000 years ago and be much better off in the bargain. I am continuously underwhelmed by the knowledge of today’s “scientists”.

knr says:March 22, 2013 at 7:08 am
How lucky do you have to be to find all the ‘mistakes’ work in favour of the ideas your pushing ?

Didn’t you know, climate scientists are the luckiest people on earth. All corrections and biases support their every conjecture. When you are on a mission to save the planet from the dross of humanity, the Force is with you!

that Al Gore and his rythms

Pixel counting (or not counting) issues. Issue discerning true edges of ice. Fresh snow on top or not. Etc, etc, etc. Just like sea ice remote sensing. Frought with all sorts of pitfalls.

John W says:
March 22, 2013 at 8:53 am
@Lank or anybody else……do you have a link for that 1922 article? Thanks if you can post it….I want that link! http://www.damninteresting.com/exhuming-the-glacier-girl/

On the topic of ice we have:
“Migrating birds leave frozen Germany” (shortly after their Spring arrival)
http://www.thelocal.de/national/20130315-48551.html#.UUyeBfWQn4w
“As snow and flooding causes chaos across the country, forecasters have warned that another spell of bitterly cold weather could make this the coldest March in 50 years.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/9948450/The-competition-for-coldest-March-in-50-years.html
It seems as if Spring is arriving earlier and earlier as global warming takes hold. I’m now waiting for plants to move downhill.

“Numerobis, testing and validation should be done before the system is fully operational, not after.”
The claim here is that the underlying assumptions (that the surface would completely freeze in winter) no longer hold, so they had to fix the model to match new realities.
I hadn’t heard anyone trumpeting about this fictitious early melt; seems the scientists in charge quickly realized there was a bug.

JohnW
“I apologize, I neglected to mention that this report was from November 2, 1922, as reported by the AP and published in The Washington Post – 90 years ago.”
If you don’t care to subscribe you can find a copy the original text and commentary here… http://www.snopes.com/politics/science/globalwarming1922.asp

Anything that Marco Tedesco has had a hand in I, 1 ignore at first and 2 then stay very far away from.
Marco is all BS and no science.
Sad

The melt extent algorithm used by Greenland Ice Sheet Today has been overestimating the melt extent, and as a result, daily images posted on this site in February and March may have indicated melt where none occurred.

What’s the phrase? Oh, yeah, the inconvenient truth….

@John W. If you were interested in the 1922 article, you may be interested in this one as well.
(sorry for the long post as I can’t remember where I got it from, maybe Trove???)
IS THERE AN OPEN POLAR SEA?
[From the Boston Traveller.]
The appearance of Dr Kane’s long expected narrative of Arctic Expeditions will again awaken an interest in the question of an open sea near the North Pole; for his discovery of that sea, with the varied details of every circumstance connected with it, can now be investigated, and the evidence of its continuance to the Pole of the earth be duly weighed.
The idea of a warmer region than the North Pole, which must be accompanied by open water, and, as a natural consequence, with animal life in a greater abundance than in the permanent ice-belted district further south, is not a new one. More than two centuries ago the appearance of open water in the highest latitudes first suggested it; and, although certain theorists contended against it, the opinion continued to prevail even to our day; and now, although there has been nothing certain of its existence, there have been such accumulative facts, that it only waited the indubitable evidence, such as Dr Kane has presented to establish the theory.
The Dutch whalemen above and around the island of Spitzburgen have often pushed through the drift ice into open spaces of sea towards the Pole, and Baron Von Wrangel, when forty miles from the coast of Artic Asia, saw, as he thought, a ‘vast illimitable ocean’ and, we doubt not many navigators, without being aware of the fact, have really been in this sea, but who did not dare to venture any further towards the mysterious Pole. Dr Scoresby among others, may be mentioned as one who has been within its area. This veteran Arctic navigator was engaged for more than thirty years in the Greenland fishery, and discovered the coast, and served on the eastern side which bears his name. On this occasion he passed the pack of floating ice, by keeping near the Greenland coast, and found himself in open water beyond. Had he been prepared to pursue his voyage, be might have pushed on nearer the Pole than any navigator before or since, but he did not dare venture beyond a point from which he was uncertain of escaping before the season had passed, and therefore retreated through the pack. Captain Parry in his well-known boat voyage, attempted to cross this floating ice, and was provided for the purpose; but it was unfortunately harder and rougher than he anticipated, and although making progress northward over the drift, he found that it was actually bearing him southward. The projectors of that expedition thought the plan the most feasible one to reach the Pole, entertaining the belief that if they could pass this floating ice they would find an open sea beyond.
It must here be remarked that in the summer north winds prevail in these seas, and aided by a strong current setting to the south the whole mass of ice accumulated and forced in during the winter, breaks up, and is carried toward the south. This belt of broken ice, or the ‘pack,’ as it is called, forms the only impediment to an approach to the Pole by the North Atlantic Ocean. In the fall when strong southerly winds, such of this pack as remains is again forced towards the Pole, in a measure filling up the open from which it has come; but whether there are lands or existing currents near the Pole to prevent its accumulating there, or whether that a warmer temperature exists to dissolve it, remains to be seen.
Dr Kane wintered in Smith’s Straits, near the 79th parallel. From this point the following spring he sent parties over the ice northward about 125 miles in a direct line, when they came to an open sea, the shores of which they traced on the east nearly to 81 degrees 30 minutes, and on the western side to 82 degrees 30 minutes, approximately. At this far remote point, and from a height of 480 feet, which commanded a horizon of nearly forty miles, the ears of the party “were gladdened with the novel music of the dashing waves and a surf, breaking in among rocks at their feet which stayed further progress.’ As they travelled north the channel expanded into an iceless area, and taking 36 miles as the mean radium open to reliable survey, the sea had a justly estimated extent of more than 4,000 square miles.
This was in the month of June, yet there was every indication that this water had been open during a most severe Arctic winter, for the shores did not have the “ice-belt” which elsewhere in Smith’s Strait indicates alike both permanent and annual freezing. Animal life, too, to which Dr Kane had been a stranger to the south, now burst upon the party. Geese and ducks were abundant, particularly the Brent goose, a migratory bird, which the Doctor had seen on his previous voyage in Wellington Channel, when they were flying toward the south. The rocks and the shore were crowded with sea-swallows, whose habits require open water, and which were then breeding; in fact, to use the Doctor’s words “it was a picture of life all around.” Of plants there is less said, as the season was too early for their development. This increase of animal and vegetable life, with the rise of the thermometer in the water, and the melted snow upon the rocks, were indicative of a milder climate towards the Pole.
Another fact worth dwelling on is, that after a severe gale of several days from the north, there was no accumulation of floating ice, which is strong evidence that there was warmer water from whence the wind came, without ice, and that from an elevation of 580 feet, the open sea was “still without a limit, and moved by a heavy swell, free of ice.”
In view of these highly interesting facts, the intrepid navigator does not venture to discuss the phenomena which give rise to them.
‘How far,’ says the Doctor, ‘this sea may extend — whether it exists simply as a feature of the immediate region, or as a part of the great and unexplored area communicating with the Polar basin — and what may be the argument in favour of one or the other hypothesis, or the explanations which reconciles it with established laws, may be questions for men skilled in scientific deductions. Coming as it did, a mysterious fluidity in the midst of vast plains of solid ice, it was well calculated to arouse the emotions of the highest order, and I do not believe there was a man among us who did not long for the means of embarking upon its bright and lonely waters’.
We have little doubt the interesting facts made known by Dr Kane will lead to another Artic expedition. At some future day we may recur to the subject again, and venture to suggest some ideas toward a plan for reaching the mysterious Pole.
The Perth Gazette and Independent Journal of Politics and News (WA) – Friday 10 April 1857

Sure, barry. But they never seem to underestimate the ice melt, do they? Seems like they’re covering their butts here, before an inconvenient fact comes to light. Now that the P.R. damage is done, they come back and say, “Oops.”
Alarmists like barry are nothing if not credulous. *eyeroll*