The Week That Was: 2013-01-12 (January 12, 2013) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
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Quote of the Week: We do not believe any group of men adequate enough or wise enough to operate without scrutiny or without criticism. We know that the only way to avoid error is to detect it, that the only way to detect it is to be free to inquire. We know that in secrecy error undetected will flourish and subvert. –-J Robert Oppenheimer.
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Number of the Week: 9,500 in 2012. Ten year average: 106,000
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SAVE THE DATE: February 2 — 1:30 to 3:30 A SEPP / VA-SEEE presentation on National and Virginia Energy Issues. At the Conference Center, Norfolk International Airport, 2200 Norview Avenue Norfolk, VA. Details to Follow.
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THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
British MET Office: The MET Office has come under severe criticism for two sets of predictions, some of the criticism is justified and some is not. The MET office made very inaccurate predictions of precipitation and drought. The biggest fault with the MET office appears to be its overconfidence in its short term predictions. As repeated many times, regional models have shown little skill in predicting beyond 10 days.
Using Environment Canada predictions Tim Ball illustrates this general failure. As he states, the issue is not the lack of computational power. “The real problems are inadequate data, lack of understanding of most major mechanisms, incorrect assumptions, and a determination to prove, instead of falsify, the AGW hypothesis.” The AGW hypothesis is that man’s emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), are causing unprecedented and dangerous global warming.
The second, and major, set of criticisms pertained to an adjustment in MET’s 2011 mid-term global temperature forecasts. During 2012, the MET has modified its global climate model to reflect more current temperatures and, apparently, incorporate changes in ocean currents and other natural causes of global warming / climate change. These changes lead to a forecast that there would be no warming trend to 2017 – something quite different than the previous forecast. The MET is to be congratulated in its efforts to break from the dogma of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its acolytes, who insist that GHG control climate, except for a slight variation in sunlight. It is doubtful if the now almost non-existent predictive ability of the climate models can be improved without breaking from the IPCC dogma.
Unfortunately, the MET made the change without any announcement, on Christmas Eve. The change was picked-up the blogger, Tallbloke, who recognized its significance (Amusingly, Tallbloke was identified by the police as a person of interest in the investigation of the Climategate leaks.) If the new MET forecast proves correct and, since there has been no surface warming trend in the data compiled by the MET Hadley Center and the Climatic Research Unit (CRU), this would mean no warming trend for two decades, contradicting all predictions of a dire future of runaway warming.
Prediction in the chaotic non-linear climate system is extremely difficult, and failure is to be expected, and admired with corrected. The independence of the MET in adjusting its model should be welcomed by all. Please see links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Models v. Observations.
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The Sun: A second note of encouragement this week came with the publication of the papers produced during a NASA conference on solar variability and the earth’s climate. The papers suggested that even small variation in luminosity of the sun (0.1%) can have a significant influence on the earth’s climate. For example, ultraviolet radiation can vary by factors of 10 or more which can have a large effect on the chemistry and thermal structure of the upper atmosphere, and, in turn, on the earth’s climate.
Unfortunately, the publication contained what is now an almost mandatory disclaimer in government climate science: “no satellite measurements have indicated that solar output and variability have contributed in a significant way to the increase in global mean temperature in the past 50 years.” As support for the statement the report cites the work of lead authors of the IPCC Summary for Policymakers and “American’s Climate Choices” by the National Research Council. The latter report has little scientific rigor.
However, recognition that the sun’s contribution to the earth’s climate is complex, varied, and not well understood goes far beyond typical IPCC dogma. Please see links under Science: Is the Sun Rising?
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The Race to the Bottom: In the run-up to the Doha conference, which, thankfully, failed; a number of organizations, considered scientific, made ever more outlandish predictions of future temperatures if humans keep emitting CO2. Half jokingly, TWTW suggested that there may be a race among these organizations, which would be the most outlandish. If there was, the World Bank was probably the winner with a prediction of a warming as much as 4 deg C (7.2 deg F). Recently World Bank President Jim Yong Kim announced that he was so taken by prediction that he wishes the Bank to participate in a master plan to avoid temperature increases and sea level rise. Please see link under Expanding the Orthodoxy.
This week there seems to be a new race afoot. Which scientific organization is willing to rid itself of the burdens of scientific rigor and / or integrity the fastest? Several of the participants and their qualifications are listed below.
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NOAA’s State of the Climate (SOTC): As discussed in last week’s TWTW, John Christy reported that for the US, except Hawaii, 2012 was the hottest in the 34 year old satellite record and the 9th warmest year globally. In its report, NOAA’ National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) announced that for the US, 2012 was the hottest ever and the second worse for extreme weather events. NOAA claims the records go back to 1895.
NOAA’s announcement was immediately picked up by the global warming chorus, demanding the government take greater control over the climate, namely reduce CO2 emissions. The mechanism by which atmospheric CO2 controls the severe cold occurring in Eurasia is not clear.
There are several major issues with the NOAA report, which are discussed in the links below and few mentioned here. NOAA made no effort to bring out that the US temperatures are inconsistent with global temperatures. Globally, 2012 is far from the hottest ever. Further, NOAA made no mention that, globally, severe weather events were down significantly.
Further, NOAA has demonstrated that there are significant issues with its temperature record, with manipulation of historic data, changing instruments sites, and poor siting of instruments that make them subject to small changes in the surroundings. One of the biggest issues is the severity of the heat and drought in the 1930s. Earlier, NOAA announced July 2012 was the hottest July ever, only to quietly back down as it became evident that July 1938 was hotter. We can expect that NOAA’s announcement will be modified in the near future, but without major press releases – the damage to science and credibility already complete. Please see links under Defending the Orthodoxy and Questioning the Orthodoxy.
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Science Magazine: At the end of an essay on scientific breakthroughs in 2012, Editor-in-Chief Bruce Alberts states a parallel between public acceptance that cigarette smoking causes lung cancer and CO2 cause global warming. Alberts fails to acknowledge that the link between cigarette smoking and lung cancer was established by rigorous statistical analysis with adherence to strict principles as articulated by Sir Bradford Hill. There has been no rigorous statistical relationship established between CO2 emissions and global warming, particularly if all of the current warm period, the Holocene, is considered. Further, there has been no global warming of the atmosphere for at least a decade and no surface warming for 16 years as reported in HadCRU data. Failure to note these salient facts demonstrates the bias of the author. Please see link under Defending the Orthodoxy and for a brief statement of some of the strict principles, as articulated by John Brignell http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/big_liars.htm
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IPCC AR5 – Working Group II: The IPCC has announced it displeasure with the leak of the draft of the AR5 report by Working Group II, which “assesses the scientific, technical, environmental, economic and social aspects of the vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptability) to climate change of, and the negative and positive consequences for, ecological systems, socio-economic sectors and human health, with an emphasis on regional sectoral and cross-sectoral issues.” http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/. It should. The leak reveals the usual gang of environmental suspects from WWF, Greenpeace, etc. The leak appeared on Donna Laframboise’s web site. Please see links under IPCC Leak.
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MIT Technology Review: The editors of the review sent President Obama a letter with statements such as: “It’s time to acknowledge that green jobs were always just political cover for that motive. You must say unambiguously that the real reason to transform our energy system is to avoid the most catastrophic effects of global warming.” Obviously, these editors may know more about technology than the physics of global warming.
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Draft U.S. Climate Assessment Report: This report, released on Friday, predicts a rise in temperatures of up to 10 deg F (5.6 C) by the end of the century. A quick glance suggests it may have all of the rigor of a report, done under Al Gore while he was Vice President, by a predecessor organization to the U.S. Global Change Research Program. That report was the first which the courts ruled did not meet the requirements of the US Data Quality Act also called Information Quality Act. Please see links under Defending the Orthodoxy.
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American Geophysical Union (AGU): It pains members of SEPP to add the once distinguished AGU to this list. But the new leadership of that organization has made Michael Mann a Fellow and invited the likes of John Cook, Peter Gleick, Stephan Lewandowsky, and Naomi Oreskes to speak at its convention. No doubt the new leadership of the AGU will NOT invite long time AGU Fellow Fred Singer to rebut the false claims Oreskes made attacking the integrity of four distinguished scientists, three of whom are deceased. Please see links under Defending the Orthodoxy.
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Al Gore: Mr. Gore does not come under the list. But the sale of the television channel in which he is an investor and promoter to a news group backed by the oil rich nation of Qatar demonstrates the cynicism and opportunism of many promoters of global warming / climate change and alternative energy. Please see links under Other News that May Be of Interest.
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Corrections and Amplifications: Last week TWTW promised the specific comments on IPCC AR5 from five-time expert reviewer Vincent Gray. They will appear next week. Instead, his history with the IPCC can be found under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
Bulldog Christopher Horner, who finally got the EPA to begin releasing emails under secret accounts, said the correct number is 12,000 emails, not 7100 as TWTW reported. And this is only the beginning.
Reader Anton Garrett requested a reference for the effectiveness of indoor spraying DDT in controlling malaria in tropical nations. A web search produced no concise history, but a 2000 report of the dilemma that banning DDT causes can be found: “Balancing risks on the backs of the poor,” by Attaran, et al, Nature Medicine, Jul 2000, http://www.malaria.org/attarannaturemed.html
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Number of the Week: 9,500 in 2012, ten year average: 106,000. These are the number of deaths world-wide from natural catastrophes as reported by the largest re-insurer of insurance companies, Munich Re. “Some 67% of overall losses and 90% of insured losses were attributable to the USA – the respective averages are 32% and 57%.” 2012 was an extraordinary year for the US, not a typical year or a trend. Sandy was the biggest loss because it hit one of the most vulnerable points in the US. The global warming chorus has no basis for using US weather events as proof that government control of GHG, particularly CO2, is needed. Please see link under Changing Weather.
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ARTICLES:
For the numbered articles below please see this week’s TWTW at: www.sepp.org. The articles are at the end of the pdf.
1. Bernie Sanders’s Windy Letter Blows a Lot of Hot Air
By Charles Battig, VA-SEEE, Letter WSJ, Jan 10, 2013
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323374504578221670878789696.html?mod=ITP_opinion_1
2 The Kyoto Scorecard
The U.N.’s anticarbon scheme didn’t work out as planned.
Editorial, WSJ, Jan 4, 2013
3. The EPA Is Politicized—So Make It Official
This federal regulatory agency, like many others, would be better run by a bipartisan commission.
By Steven Hayward, WSJ, Jan 8, 0213
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323320404578216034024416590.html?mod=ITP_opinion_0
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NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Science: Is the Sun Rising?
NASA on the sun: ‘…tiny variations can have a significant effect on terrestrial climate.”
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jan 9, 2013
Link to full report: The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth’s Climate: A Workshop Report
By Committee on the Effects of Solar Variability on Earth’s Climate; Space Studies Board; Division on Engineering and Physical Science; National Research Council
http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13519
Sun’s 2013 Solar Storm Peak Expected to Hit Century Low
By Elizabeth Howell, Space.com, Jan 4, 2013
http://news.yahoo.com/suns-2013-solar-storm-peak-expected-hit-century-150744846.html
Climategate Continued
Duke C [Climate Audit reader] Punctures More Attempted UEA Obtuseness
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Jan 11, 2013
http://climateaudit.org/2013/01/11/duke-c-and-more-uea-obtuseness/#more-17331
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Wrong Prediction, Wrong Science; Unless It’s Government Climate Science.
By Tim Ball, WUWT, Jan 8, 2013
The IPCC – a history
NZ Climate Truth Newsletter No 303
By Vincent Gray, NCTCS, Jan 7, 2013
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2013/01/the-ipcc-history-by-ipcc-expert.html
Unique paper looks for natural factors in station data–shows significant probabilities of natural signal
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jan 10, 2013
Link to paper: How Natural is the Recent Centennial Warming? An Analysis of 2249 Surface, Temperature Records, By Horst-Joachim Lüdecke, Rainer Link, and Friedrich-Karl Ewert, EIKE
http://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/uploads/media/How_natural.pdf
New Study Finds No Significant Human-Induced Warming
By John Hinderaker, Power Line, Jan 5, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Link to paper: Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming
By Beenstock, Reingewertz, and Paldor; http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/3/561/2012/esdd-3-561-2012.html
“This implies that recent global warming is not statistically significantly related to anthropogenic forcing. On the other hand, we find that greenhouse gas forcing might have had a temporary effect on global temperature.”
New PIK logic from Potsdam: Heavier snowfalls causing glacier shrinkage (and when you eat more, you lose weight
By Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt, Translated P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 11, 2013
A Look At Global Mean Temperatures in 2013: Cooling Ahead!
By Fritz Vahrenholt, Frank Bosse, Translated. P. Gosselin, Jan 9, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Seeking the missing heat – in the North Atlantic, not in the southern oceans as Hansen suggests. Ocean heat content leads temperatures of the northern hemisphere by about 12 months.]
Waste Heat as a Contributor to Observed Warming
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Jan 9, 2013
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/01/waste-heat-as-a-contributor-to-observed-warming/
Defending the Orthodoxy
The Breakthroughs of 2012
By Bruce Alberts, Editor-in-Chief, Science, Dec 21, 2012
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/338/6114/1511.summary
UN climate official wants ‘strong’ response to record heat
By Ben Geman, The Hill, Jan 9, 2013
NOAA SOTC for December 2012
Posted by Anthon Watts, WUWT, Jan 8, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/08/noaa-sotc/
Link to the Report: State of the Climate, National Overview, Annual 2012
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2012/13
Not Even Close: 2012 Was Hottest Ever in U.S.
By Justin Gillis, NYT, Jan 8, 2013
NOAA: 2012 was warmest year ever for US, second most ‘extreme’
By Elizabeth Chuck, NBC, Jan 8, 2013, [H/t Climate Depot]
2012 Was the Hottest Year in U.S. History. And Yes — It’s Climate Change
By Bryan Walsh, Time Magazine, Jan 8, 2013
America’s Hottest Year On Record And A Cooler Future
Editorial, IBD, Jan 9, 2013
AGU Honors Gleick
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Jan 5, 2013
http://climateaudit.org/2013/01/05/agu-honors-gleick/
American Geophysical Union – cheat, deceive, steal, “It’s OK”.
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 10, 2013
http://joannenova.com.au/2013/01/american-geophysical-union-cheat-decieve-steal-its-ok/#more-26308
Dear Mr. President: Time to Deal with Climate Change
In a letter to President Obama, the editors of MIT Technology Review argue that addressing climate change must take top priority in the next four years. Jan 2, 2013
Gutting Democracy to Save the Planet
By Donna Laframboise, NFC, Jan 12, 2013
http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2013/01/12/gutting-democracy-to-save-the-planet/
[SEPP Comment: Commentary on the letter from editors of MIT Technology Review.]
Major report warns climate change could raise temperatures by 10 degrees
By Ben Geman, The Hill, Jan 11, 2013
Link to the Report “Federal Advisory Committee Draft Climate Assessment Report Released for Public Review” by National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, http://ncadac.globalchange.gov/
Draft U.S. Climate Assessment Report
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc, Jan 12, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/01/12/draft-u-s-climate-assessment-report/#more-10910
Questioning the Orthodoxy
2012 probably not the hottest on record, after all
Skewed data stoke climate alarmist fears
By Tom Harris and Tim Ball, Washington Times, Jan 11, 2013 [H/t SPPI]
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/jan/11/2012-probably-not-the-hottest-on-record-after-all/
NOAA Temperature Fraud Expands (Part 1)
By Steven Goddard, Real Science, Jan 11, 2013 [H/t Climate Depot]
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/01/11/noaa-temperature-fraud-expands-part-1/
Hottest year ever? Skeptics question revisions to climate data
By Maxim Lott, Fox News, Jan 10, 2013 [H/t Roger Cohen]
Is NOAA Misleading the Public by Including Tropical Cyclones in its 2012 Climate Extremes Index Ranking?
By Bob Tisdale, Climate Observations, Jan 8, 2013
The logical case against climate panic
By Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, Jan 6, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/06/the-logical-case-against-climate-panic/
Peter Lilley vs. Nick Stern: Another Rebuttal
By Peter Lilley, GWPF, Jan 10, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/peter-lilley-nick-stern/
[SEPP Comment: More on what is wrong with the influential Stern report on climate change.]
How to Destroy Science: Cast Self-Interest as Public Interest
By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, Jan 10, 2013
Cogs in the Climate Machine
By Donna Laframboise, NFC, Jan 10, 2013
http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2013/01/10/cogs-in-the-climate-machine/
[SEPP Comment: One media myth after another about the IPCC.]
Global warming, the tool of the West
By Stanislav Mishin, Pravda, RU, Jan 4, 2013 [H/t Roger Cohen]
http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/columnists/04-01-2013/123380-global_warming-0/
This is a religion replete with an army of priests, called Government Grant Scientists.
Global warming catches fire
Crusade against carbon dioxide threatens the environment
Editorial, Washington Times, Jan 8, 2013
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/jan/8/global-warming-catches-fire/
How Fossil Fuels Saved Humanity from Nature and Nature from Humanity
By Staff Writers, NCPA, Jan 9, 2013
Link to study: Humanity Unbound: How Fossil Fuels Saved Humanity from Nature and Nature from Humanity
By Indur M. Goklany, CATO
IPCC Leaks
The Secret Santa Leak
By Donna Laframboise, NFC, Jan 8, 2013
http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2013/01/08/the-secret-santa-leak/
IPCC Legal Notice
By Donna Laframboise, NFC, Jan 9, 2013
http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2013/01/09/ipcc-legal-notice/
[SEPP Comment: A notice from the IPCC to remove leaked emails from her web site.]
UN climate panel denounces fresh data leaks
By Staff Writers, Paris (AFP), Jan 09, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/UN_climate_panel_denounces_fresh_data_leaks_999.html
The usual suspects
By Philippa Martyr, Quadrant, Jan 9, 2013
http://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/doomed-planet/2013/01/the-usual-suspects
[SEPP Comment: List of contributors to Australasia section of the IPCC-AR5 WGII draft report]
“What’s particularly striking about the entire list is the degree to which every single person on it depends on climate change propagation for a living.”
Questioning European Green
Why IS Britain about to pay £110billion to enter a new Dark Age? A damning indictment of the new ‘Green-friendly’ Energy Bill
By David Rose, Mail Online, Jan 5, 2013 [H/t Bishop Hill]
Quarter of mothers forced to turn their heating off to afford food for their children: Survey warns of increase in ‘fuel poverty’
Survey finds 56 per cent of families turn heating off when children leave
Bill increase causing people to use blankets and extra clothing to keep warm
Experts say number of households suffering fuel poverty will double by 2016
By Mario Ledwith, Mail Online, Jan 5, 2013
[SEPP Comment: A survey indicating the success of British energy policy in driving up energy costs to save the planet.]
British group pans wind farm compensation
By Staff Writers, Plymouth, England (UPI), Jan 7, 2013
http://www.winddaily.com/reports/British_group_pans_wind_farm_compensation_999.html
Expanding the Orthodoxy
World Bank to strengthen focus on climate change
By Zack Colman, The Hill, Jan 10, 2013
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/276567-world-bank-to-strengthen-focus-on-climate-change
Seeking a Common Ground
To keep politics out of science, scientists need to be more scientific, not more political
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 7, 2013
Editorial: Deciding Whether It’s Climate or Weather
From The Australian, Via GWPF, Jan 11, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/editorial-deciding-climate-weather/
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Phil Trans B says end of world nigh
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jan 12, 2013
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/1/12/phil-trans-b-says-end-of-world-nigh.html
Link to Paper Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided?
By Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne H. Ehrlich, Proceedings of the Royal Society B, Jan 8, 2013
http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/280/1754/20122845.full
Oil Sands Industry in Canada Tied to Higher Carcinogen Level
By Ian Austen, NYT, Jan 7, 2013
the levels of contaminants measured by the researchers “did not exceed Canadian guidelines and were low compared to urban areas.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Avoiding a climate-change apocalypse
By Katrina Vanden Heuvel, Washington Post, Jan 8, 2013 [H/t Dennis Manuta]
‘Horrible’ sea level rise of more than 3 feet plausible by 2100, experts say
By John Roach, NBC News, Jan 6, 2013 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
Link to Paper: Future sea level rise from ice sheets by Bamber & Aspinall in Nature Climate Change
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/index.html
Models v. Observations
The avalanche starts to roll: British weather service drastically scales back its prognoses for warming
By Fritz Vahrenholt and Sebastian Lüning, Trans. by P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 10, 2013
MET Office Forecasts No Global Temperature Rise
By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Jan 7, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/met-office-forecasts-global-temperature-rise/
Link to MET Office web page: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc
Spot the Difference – MET Office Promises to Review Controversial Wording of ‘Forecast’ Graph
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know and GWPF, Jan 11, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/met-office-manipulate-forecast-data/
MET Office Says No Warming Before 2017: How Did the Media Do?
By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Jan 9, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/met-office-warming-2017-media-do/
The Guardian’s Verdict: Objection, M’Lud!
By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Jan 10, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/guardians-verdict-objection-mlud/
I note as an aside M’lud that no one predicted a 15-year standstill. [in global temperatures]
Climate Revisions Validates Sceptics
By Graham Lloyd, The Australian, vai, GWPF, Jan 13, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/climate-revisions-validate-sceptics/
Decadal Forecasting – What is it and what does it tell us?
By Staff Writers, MET Office, Jan 10, 2013
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/decadal-forecasting
Met Office Accused Of Misleading Public Over Rainfall Trends
By Benny Peiser, WUWT, Jan 5, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/05/met-office-accused-of-misleading-public-over-rainfall-trends/
Measurement Issues
Does NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) keep two separate sets of climate books for the USA?
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jan 6, 2013
Changing Weather
Reinsurer Munich Re Natural Catastrophe Statistics Report 2012: Far Less Global Damage From Weather In 2012!
By P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 3, 2013
Link to Press Release: Natural catastrophe statistics for 2012 dominated by weather extremes in the USA,
http://www.munichre.com/en/media_relations/press_releases/2013/2013_01_03_press_release.aspx
Down to -50C: Russians freeze to death as strongest-in-decades winter hits (PHOTOS)
By Staff Writers, RT, Dec 19, 2013 [H/t Adrain Gibby]
http://rt.com/news/russia-freeze-cold-temperature-379/
[SEPP Comment: Pictorial relief for those who believe that US temperatures are too hot.]
Heat down under, snow in Jerusalem, brutal cold in Asia will be here next 4- 6 weeks.
By Joe D’Aleo, ICECAP, Jan 11, 2012
Record low temperatures in Bangladesh
By Staff Writers, Dhaka, Bangladesh (UPI) Jan 9, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Record_low_temperatures_in_Bangladesh_999.html
… an unexpected result of global warming, scientists said.
Temperatures in China hit 28-year low
By Staff Writers, Reuters, Jan 5, 2013 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/01/05/16369310-temperatures-in-china-hit-28-year-low?lite
Changing Climate
Systems at Risk
By Lee Howell, Project Syndicate, Jan 8, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Adaptation is vital, but by continuing to spout the wrong causes, governments will fail to achieve realistic solutions.]
Changing Earth
Japan quake study sounds alarm at ‘creeping fault’ doctrine
By Staff Writers, Paris (AFP), Jan 09, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Japan_quake_study_sounds_alarm_at_creeping_fault_doctrine_999.html
The potential impact of volcanic overprinting of the Eddy Minimum
By David Archibald, WUWT, Jan 7, 2013
[SEPP Comment: An essay pointing out that four of the five past solar minima were associated with cold climates, some intensified by volcanic activity.]
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
The greening of the planet
Satellites confirm that green vegetation is increasing
By Matt Ridley, published in WSJ, Jan 5, 2013
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/the-greening-of-the-planet.aspx
Peak (?) farmland
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc, Jan 5, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/01/05/peak-farmland/#more-10857
Falling on a Genetically Modified Sword
By Staff Writers, ACSH, Jan 7, 2013
http://www.acsh.org/falling-on-a-genetically-modified-sword/
[SEPP Comment: Mark Lynas who helped coin the term “frankenfood” has apologized for his ignorance of the importance of genetically modified crops.
Half of all food ‘wasted’ report claims
By Martin Livermore, Scientific Alliance, Jan 11, 2013
http://www.scientific-alliance.org/scientific-alliance-newsletter/half-all-food-wasted-report-claims
[SEPP Comment: Thoughts penetrating beyond the headlines.]
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by NIPCC
For a full list of articles see www.NIPCCreport.org
The Ability to Identify Category 4 and 5 Atlantic Hurricanes with Mid-20th-Century Tools
Reference: Hagen, A.B. and Landsea, C.W. 2012. On the classification of extreme Atlantic hurricanes utilizing mid-twentieth-century monitoring capabilities. Journal of Climate 25: 4461-4475.
http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2013/jan/1jan2013a1.html
[SEPP Comment: Based on the analysis, prior methods [1944 to 1953] underestimated severe hurricanes.]
Eight Decades of Glacier Movements in Southeast Greenland
Reference: Bjork, A.A., Kjaer, K.H., Korsgaard, N.J., Khan, S.A., Kjeldsen, K.K., Andresen, C.S., Box, J.E., Larsen, N.K. and Funder, S. 2012. An aerial view of 80 years of climate-related glacier fluctuations in southeast Greenland. Nature Geoscience: 10.1038//NGEO1481.
http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2013/jan/1jan2013a3.html
[SEPP Comment: Recent glacial retreat was matched by a similar glacial retreat in the 1930s.]
Effects of Ocean Acidification on Marine Coccolithophores
Reference: Smith, H.E.K., Tyrrell, T., Charalampopoulou, A., Dumousseaud, C., Legge, O.J., Birchenough, S., Pettit, L.R., Garley, R., Hartman, S.E., Hartman, M.C., Sagoo, N., Daniels, C.J., Achterberg, E.P. and Hydes, D.J. 2012. Predominance of heavily calcified coccolithophores at low CaCO3 saturation during winter in the Bay of Biscay. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 109: 8845-8849.
http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2013/jan/1jan2013a4.html
[SEPP Comment: Contradicting laboratory results, elevated CO2 concentrations and lowering of pH are anti-correlated with reduced calcification rates.]
Six Millennia of North Atlantic Temperatures at Reykjanes Ridge
Reference: Moros, M., Jansen, E., Oppo, D.W., Giraudeau, J. and Kuijpers, A. 2012. Reconstruction of the late-Holocene changes in the Sub-Arctic Front position at the Reykjanes Ridge, north Atlantic. The Holocene 22: 877-886.
http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2013/jan/8jan2013a3.html
[SEPP Comment: Of the five distinct cold periods since the beginning of the Holocene, the last one, the Little Ice Age was the coldest. The warm periods that followed the earlier four cold periods were not caused by atmospheric carbon dioxide.]
Expanding the Biosphere’s Limits to Growth
Reference: Running, S.W. 2012. A measurable planetary boundary for the biosphere. Science 337: 1458-1459.
http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2013/jan/9jan2013a1.html
[SEPP Comment: Using land and water to grow plants for Biofuels are a waste of resources.]
The Political Games Continue
Sen. Sanders, after US hits heat record, floats new climate bill
By Ben Geman, The Hill, Jan 9, 2013
Sen. Boxer adds climate change post to environment committee staff
By Zack Colman, The Hill, Jan 10, 2013
[SEPP Comment: The post goes to an attorney from the National Wildlife Federation, who played “a key role” in the Supreme Court decision that carbon dioxide is a pollutant.]
Litigation Issues
Will the Supreme Court Review EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Regulations? Part II
By Marlo Lewis, Global Warming.org, Jan 8, 2012
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
The carbon trading money tree
When something is too good to be true, you should be hearing warning bells.
By Kelvin Kemm, C-Fact. Jan 7, 2013
The Market and Mother Nature
By Thomas Friedman, NYT, Jan 8, 2013 [H/t Dennis Manuta]
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/09/opinion/friedman-the-market-and-mother-nature.html?emc=eta1&_r=0
[SEPP Comment: We need taxes – based on fear of the future warming that is not scientifically substantiated.]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
The Multiple Distortions of Wind Subsidies
By Staff Writers, NCPA, Jan 8, 2013
Tax credit extension a reprieve for wind
By Staff Writers, Washington (UPI), Jan 4, 2013
http://www.winddaily.com/reports/Tax_credit_extension_a_reprieve_for_wind_999.html
The Infant Industry Argument and Renewable Energy Production
By Dr. Sergey Mityakov, George Marshall Institute, Dec 20, 2012
http://www.marshall.org/article.php?id=1163
Link to Full Report: http://www.marshall.org/pdf/materials/1163.pdf
[SEPP Comment: Within two years of Edison using a coal plant to generate electricity, the first wind mill was used to generate electricity. Wind power is hardly an infant industry.]
The Economic Impact of Pennsylvania’s Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard
By Staff Writers, NCPA, Jan 10, 2013
Link to study: David G. Tuerck, Paul Bachman and Michael Head, “The Economic Impact of Pennsylvania’s Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard,”
http://www.beaconhill.org/BHIStudies/PA-AEPS2012/PA-AEPS-study-BHI-Dec-2012.pdf
[SEPP Comment: Fortunately for the citizens of Pennsylvania less expensive electricity from natural gas will help make up for political ignorance.]
Former White House aide defends ‘green’ stimulus, says 720K jobs were created
By Zack Colman, The Hill, Jan 9, 2013
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/276293-former-white-house-aide-defends-green-stimulus
Link to Aldy’s January 2012 draft paper: http://www.rff.org/RFF/Documents/RFF-DP-12-03.pdf
[SEPP Comment: $90 Billion in government spending led to $100 Billion in private capital. The calculation is for job-years – one job lasting one year. The largest category is renewable generation (192,900), the second is energy efficiency – installing insulation (179,000) and the third largest is transit (158,200). How many of the jobs continue after the subsidies stop.]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
The EPA Pushes the Envelope, Again
A long train of abuses suggests an institutional culture that sees the law as an impediment.
By A. Barton Hinkle, Reason, Jan 9, 2013
http://reason.com/archives/2013/01/09/the-epa-pushes-the-envelope-again
Economic Failure at U.S. EPA: NAM Study Raises the Hard Questions
By Travis Fisher, Master Resource, Jan 9, 2013
http://www.masterresource.org/2013/01/nam-study-raises-the-hard-questions/#more-23583
E-mail Scandal at the EPA
The Obama administration embraces secrecy and stonewalling.
By John Fund, National Review, Jan 5, 2013
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/336995/e-mail-scandal-epa-john-fund#
20 Windsorgate questions for Obama administration
By Mark Tapscott, Washington Examiner, Jan 10, 2013
EPA Rules, Economy, Natural Gas Prices Prompt Georgia Power to Retire 2 GW of Coal, Oil Power
By Staff Writers, POWERnews, Jan 10, 2013
http://www.powermag.com/news/5289.html?hq_e=el&hq_m=2595372&hq_l=6&hq_v=5e660500d0
Energy Issues – Non-US
Canadian crude price discount to WTI hits $41
By Yadullah Hussain, Financial Post, Jan 11, 2013
http://business.financialpost.com/2013/01/11/canadian-crude-price-discount-to-wti-hits-41/
[SEPP Comment: Canadian oil producers are paying dearly for Washington’s refusal to permit the Keystone pipeline.]
UK’s New Year Shale Gas Resolution
By Peter Glover, Energy Tribune, Jan 7, 2013
http://www.energytribune.com/69918/uks-new-year-shale-gas-resolution
A Carrington Catastrophe
By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Jan 11, 2013
http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2013/01/11/a-carrington-catastrophe/
Energy Issues — US
UPDATE 2-Phillips 66 makes $1 bln commitment to ship Bakken crude
* 5-yr commitment the longest crude-by-rail deal so far
* Global to ship crude via Canadian Pacific’s railway
By Selam Gebrekidan, Reuters, Jan 8, 2013
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/08/refinery-bayway-bakken-crude-idUSL1E9C844X20130108
[SEPP Comment: By rail, indicating the pressing need for new pipelines.]
Virgina: Energy Capital of East Coast?
By Marita Noon, Townhall, Jan 8, 2013
Rare Earth and Uranium Mining Potential in the States
By Staff Writers, ACPA, Jan 8, 2013
Link to full report: http://www.alec.org/docs/DIG-IT-WEB.pdf
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
No contamination from fracking found in 2 Arkansas counties-USGS
* USGS sampled 127 wells in Fayetteville shale area
* Study shows fracking can be done safely, author says
* Draft EPA study linked fracking, water pollution in Wyoming
By Ayesha Rascoe, Reuters, Jan 9, 2013
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/10/usa-fracking-arkansas-study-idUSL1E9C9FCZ20130110
[SEPP Comment: The Wyoming wells did not involve deep underground fracturing of dense shale. EPA is redoing the study.]
New York’s Fracking Opportunity
By Katie Tubb, Heritage.org, Jan 10, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://blog.heritage.org/2013/01/10/new-yorks-fracking-opportunity/
Washington’s Control of Oil and Gas
More good news for Keystone
By Peter Foster, Financial Post, Jan 8, 2013
http://opinion.financialpost.com/2013/01/08/peter-foster-more-good-news-for-keystone/
[SEPP Comment: Lisa Jackson leaving EPA and the finding by Nebraska that the new route is environmentally sound may favor the Keystone.]
Is Keystone XL DOA in Term No. 2?
There are no more campaign promises to make — and there’s an incoming secretary of State who makes environmentalists hurrah.
By Bridget Johnson, PJ Media, Jan 8, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://pjmedia.com/blog/is-keystone-xl-doa-in-term-no-2/
[SEPP Comment: It is not over yet for Keystone, there are many bear traps in Washington.]
Oil-and-gas lobby envisions improved relationship with the White House
By Zack Colman, The Hill, Jan 8, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Not everyone believes this vision is correct.]
Oil, gas industries see boon without tax increases
Want administration’s commitment to more drilling for more revenues
By Ben Wolfgang, Washington Times, Jan 9, 2013
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/jan/8/oil-industry-obama-energy-production-fix-economy/
[SEPP Comment: Same speech as above, different headline. SEPP attended the speech.]
Return of King Coal?
In Georgia, Obama is winning the war on coal
Editorial, Washington Examiner, Jan 8, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Oil Spills, Gas Leaks, Etc, & Consequences
Interior vows ‘high-level’ Arctic-drilling review after Shell’s mishaps
By Ben Geman, The Hill, Jan 8, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Bad news for Shell.]
EPA raps Shell for Arctic air violations
By Jennifer A. Dlouhy, Fuel Fix, Jan 10, 2013
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2013/01/10/epa-raps-shell-for-arctic-air-violations/
[SEPP Comment: More news for Shell.]
A lot was riding on that snapped Arctic rig line
By Loren Steffy, Fuel Fix, Jan 11, 2013
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2013/01/11/steffy-a-lot-was-riding-on-that-snapped-arctic-rig-line/
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Dear Christian Science Monitor: Wind Is Not Sacred but a Sacrilege
By Mary Kay Barton, Master Resource, Jan 11, 2013
http://www.masterresource.org/2013/01/dear-christian-science-monitor-wind-is-not-sacred/#more-23593
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Biofuel production causes pollution: Study
By Alister Doyle, Reuters, Jan 6, 2012 [H/t William Readdy]
http://www.torontosun.com/2013/01/06/biofuels-cause-pollution-not-as-green-as-thought-study
Obama’s Green Ethanol Bureaucrats Starve The Poor
Editorial, IBD, Jan 8, 2013
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Electric Cars Don’t Sell But Let’s Build More Anyway
Editorial, IBD, Jan 10, 2013
http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/011013-640224-nissan-leaf-electric-cars-not-ready.htm
Environmental Industry
The Greens’ Attack on Mariculture
They fear human involvement with nature.
By Robert Zubrin, National Review, Jan 3, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise.]
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/336808/greens-attack-mariculture-robert-zubrin#
Government of, by and for activists
By Ron Arnold, Canada Free Press, Jan 6, 2013
http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/government-of-by-and-for-activists
Other Scientific News
Antarctic lake reached after millennia
By Staff Writers, Vladivostok, Russia (UPI), Jan 10, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Antarctic_lake_reached_after_millennia_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Successful extraction of an ice core from Lake Vostok, sealed by ice for 20 million years.]
Unlike we thought for 100 years: Molds are able to reproduce sexually
By Staff Writers, Bochum, Germany (SPX), Jan 10, 2013
Other News that May Be of Interest
For Sale: NASA Space Shuttle Stuff
By Staff Writers, Washington (RIA Novosti), Jan 08, 2013
http://www.space-travel.com/reports/For_Sale_NASA_Space_Shuttle_Stuff_999.html
Polar bear population now 22,600-32,000 – when tallied by nation
By Susan Crowford, Polar Bear Science, Jan 8, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://polarbearscience.com/2013/01/08/polar-bear-population-now-22600-32000-when-tallied-by-nation/
Principle of proportionality
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jan 7, 2013
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/1/7/principle-of-proportionality.html
[SEPP Comment: A request by Pat Swords on his reasoning for challenging the Irish Renewable Energy Program.]
Al Gore’s Oil-Fueled Al-Jazeera Deal Follows A String Of Green Energy Fiascos
By Larry Bell, Forbes, Jan 8, 2013
Green Hypocrisy as Al Gore Sells Out for Petro-Dollars
By Peter Glover, Energy Tribune, Jan 10, 2013
http://www.energytribune.com/70283/green-hypocrisy-as-al-gore-sells-out-for-petro-dollars
Archaeologists Find Clues to Viking Mystery
Abandoned Colony in Greenland
By Günther Stockinger, Spiegel Online, Jan 10, 2013 [H/t Peter Salonius]
[SEPP Comment: The loss of trade and increased difficulty of hunting seals both of which came with increased ice sheets may have been more important that re-establishing a Viking identity.]
New York Times Dismantles Its Environment Desk
Times says demise of the nine-person team, created in 2009, won’t affect climate coverage.
By Katherine Bagley, InsideClimate News, Jan 11, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
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BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Counting the cost of mercury pollution
By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX,) Jan 08, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Counting_the_cost_of_mercury_pollution_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Mercury poisoning is real, the bureaucratic process of counting is not.]
Gone Bezerkers. Climate change will turn humans into hobbits
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 8, 2013
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Just listened to the 6:00 news on the radio, you can really rely on the BBC! The evidence is mounting that AGW is the biggest con trick in history and they are banging on about China, Mexico and South Korea doing their bit to stop climate change by reducing CO2 emissions, they must live in a parallel universe. Other countries please note; organisations such as the BBC and Met Office that are publicly funded are usually not fit for purpose!
The UK met might be playing reverse psychology with it’s prediction of no warming for another five yrs, when they forecast no snow and it snowed then hot summer and it was cold and drought and it rained could they have worked out that the weather has always done the opposite to their predictions. Maybe they might just by luck get it right this time.
Reblogged this on Tallbloke's Talkshop and commented:
The untiring Ken Haapala compiles a superb review of the weeks climate related news – including a mention for the talkshop post on the MET Office global warming forecast change.
It must be clear by now even to the uninitiated that CO2 has no controlling influence on Earth’s climate.
I saw two interesting and very telling quotes yesterday by a warmist commentator on the MET debacle. The 1st was concerning the “heat generated by greenhouse gases” and the 2nd talked about “the MET’s ‘best guess'”. How incredibly stupid!! Any notion that a gas (read: CO2) can ‘generate heat’ is just mind bigglingly and manifestly false, and if all the MET can do with £200m/year is give us its ‘best guess’, then I think it’s time for it to go.
The fallacy of the greenhouse effect that ‘generates’ heat (by the sip posed back-radiation mechanism) is so easily falsified by a simple piece of Maths, why is it still going? The Maths is the net surface temp when summing the heat energy radiated (1) with the supposed back-radiated fraction (0.x). The answer is always -1 + 0.x and never +1 + 0.x, i.e. cooler, regardless of the CO2 level.
To think that hundreds of billions have been spent because of, and the likes of Mike Mann, Al Gore, Joun Houghton, etc. have been so comprehensively fooled by a simple Maths sign error is staggering.
FRED says:
January 13, 2013 at 10:55 pm
The UK met might be playing reverse psychology with it’s prediction of no warming for another five yrs, when they forecast no snow and it snowed then hot summer and it was cold and drought and it rained could they have worked out that the weather has always done the opposite to their predictions. Maybe they might just by luck get it right this time.
They are getting worried because the UK weather has actually been cooling since 2003.
Re:
The Sun: A second note of encouragement this week came with the publication of the papers produced during a NASA conference on solar variability and the earth’s climate. The papers suggested that even small variation in luminosity of the sun (0.1%) can have a significant influence on the earth’s climate.>> For example, ultraviolet radiation can vary by factors of 10 or more <<which can have a large effect on the chemistry and thermal structure of the upper atmosphere, and, in turn, on the earth’s climate.
What has been the effect of IV variability on the past hysteria about the "Ozone Hole"?
-Toby
I think there should be explanatory SEPP Comments after more items, such as these:
Gone Bezerkers. Climate change will turn humans into hobbits
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 8, 2013
http://joannenova.com.au/2013/01/gone-bezerkers-climate-change-will-turn-humans-turn-into-hobbits/#more-26316
——
New York’s Fracking Opportunity
By Katie Tubb, Heritage.org, Jan 10, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://blog.heritage.org/2013/01/10/new-yorks-fracking-opportunity/
————
Economic Failure at U.S. EPA: NAM Study Raises the Hard Questions
By Travis Fisher, Master Resource, Jan 9, 2013
http://www.masterresource.org/2013/01/nam-study-raises-the-hard-questions/#more-23583
———
Virgina: Energy Capital of East Coast?
By Marita Noon, Townhall, Jan 8, 2013
http://finance.townhall.com/columnists/maritanoon/2013/01/08/virgina-energy-capital-of-east-coast-n1483556?utm_source=thdaily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=nl
I’m afraid you can’t congratulate organisations who change their models to things which critics of theirs have been advocating for years.
You should cut their funding and pass it over to those whose approaches were correct years ago.
Indeed you should not have time for those continuing to ignore oceanic parameters.
You should fund and support those whose science highlighted that years ago.
Otherwise, you support political shenanigans, not rigorous science.
“New York Times Dismantles Its Environment Desk”
Moved over to the political desk.
Instead, Baquet said the change was prompted by the shifting interdisciplinary landscape of news reporting. When the desk was created in early 2009, the environmental beat was largely seen as “singular and isolated,” he said. It was pre-fracking and pre-economic collapse. But today, environmental stories are “partly business, economic, national or local, among other subjects,” Baquet said. “They are more complex. We need to have people working on the different desks that can cover different parts of the story.”
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/20130111/new-york-times-dismantles-environmental-desk-journalism-fracking-climate-change-science-global-warming-economy