By Paul Homewood
Following release of provisional rainfall data for the UK, showing that 2012 has been one of the wettest on record, Professor Julia Slingo, chief scientist at the Met Office, tells us
“The trend towards more extreme rainfall events is one we are seeing around the world, in countries such as India and China, and now potentially here in the UK”, adding that “the long-term trend towards wetter weather is likely to continue as global air temperatures rise. “
Leaving aside the fact that the Met Office have also been warning us about droughts lately, let’s take a look at some of the forecasts they were making during 2012.
Each month they issue a 3-month outlook. Unfortunately the ones issued prior to September have disappeared from their archives, but I had already saved the April-June, and also the Sep-Nov forecasts. Along with the Oct-Dec ones, what were the Met forecasting as the year progressed?
On 23rd March, they predicted “The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than average conditions for April/May/June as a whole, and also slightly favours April being the driest of the 3 months.”
RESULT – RAINFALL TOTALS WERE 176%, 94% AND 203% OF NORMAL IN APRIL, MAY AND JUNE RESPECTIVELY.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/p/i/A3-layout-precip-AMJ.pdf
On 24th August, their forecast for September “weakly favours below normal values”.
RESULT – RAINFALL WAS 117% OF NORMAL IN SEPTEMBER.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/i/e/A3-plots-precip-SON.pdf
On 21st September, they said “For UK-averaged rainfall the predicted probabilities favour below normal rainfall during October. For the period October-November-December as a whole the range of forecasts also favours lower than average rainfall”
RESULT – RAINFALL WAS 101% OF NORMAL IN OCTOBER.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/h/g/A3-plots-precip-OND.pdf
On 24th October, they forecast “Predictions for UK-mean precipitation for both November and the November-December-January period are similar to climatology”
RESULT – RAINFALL WAS 111% OF NORMAL IN NOVEMBER.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/q/6/A3-plots-precip-NDJ.pdf
And on 20th November, “Predictions for UK-mean precipitation for December show a slight shift towards below-normal values – consistent with negative North Atlantic Oscillation conditions”
RESULT – RAINFALL WAS 150% OF NORMAL IN DECEMBER.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/j/i/A3_plots-precip-DJF.pdf
So for the seven months between April and December, that forecasts are available for, the Met Office forecast drier than normal conditions in six, and normal in the seventh. They failed to get any month correct, and for the seven months in question, rainfall averaged 36% above normal levels, (which are based on 1981-2010.)
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomalygraphs/2012/2012_Rainfall_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif
It is very kind of Julia to tell us now that she knew all along it was likely to be wetter. It is just a pity, though, that she forgot to tell us at the time.
The MO lampshading their incompetence regarding rain seems to be a distraction from the latest revision to their warming forecast as just reported by Tallbloke:
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2013/01/05/major-change-in-uk-met-office-global-warming-forecast/
The new version seems to show 2018 only 0.1C warmer than 1998:
Blinkers: http://i46.tinypic.com/123147s.gif http://i45.tinypic.com/mwz33n.gif
0.5C per century warming isn’t going to scare anyone.
The Met office needs a new dart board. The one they have now is obviously faulty.
Just proves to me that I went into the wrong line of work.
And I thought it was only sports analysts and politicians that could be so wrong, so often, yet still keep their jobs.
Oh, Snap! (an american expression, for those overseas, it means a killer comeback or insult)
Draughts – global warming
Floods – global warming
Night, Day, Eclipse, Normality – global warming
When will sanity prevail.
BTW Slingo, air temperatures are pretty much what they have been, within natural variability, since the last ice-age
England has the longest and the most accurate temperature record available to the science, and yet MetOffice scientists refuse to learn from it and what it shows:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET-NV.htm
Bogus!
The only reason why it is so warm and moist in a stretch from Scandinavia over the British Isles to central Europe is a much warmer-than-normal northern Atlantic!
Watch Antony’s great “Sea Ice Reference Page” for – um – references:
While the Arctic Ocean has almost fully recovered it’s Ice-cover, there’s a patch the size of Texas north of the North Cape / West of Novaja Semlja, which is up to 8 degrees Celsius (!) warmer than average.
This “central heating” is heating the air above it, which is then transported to Scandinavia and Europe via a chan of lows, to provide for the warm, humid air over here. Yet, in addition, it also keeps the Arctic Ocean in this area ice-free. But this is in fact the LAST area, where arctic ice cover is below-average! Everywhere else around the edge of the arctic ocean, the ice cover is within long-term-average already, if not above!
But once this pool of warm water north of the North Cape / West of Novaja Semlja will have run “dry”, you can expect a MASSIVE drying / cooling of air over Europe to set in.
I say, enjoy the relatively mild and humid winter in Europe, as long as it will last – because it won’t last for much longer.
Verity Jones has kindly filled in the missing months for me.
For Jan – March, the Met forecast wet weather, and got dry!
For June – August, they admitted they had no clue, and got rain 158% above average!
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/01/06/met-office-predict-wetdry-droughtfloods/
Well, if she is now predicting more rain than usual, I suppose we had better be preparing for drought soon.
You have to admire the persistence, though. If it were me, I would have given up predicting anything, other than death and taxes, ages ago.
Such error margins are not minor blips, but indicative of seriously deficient methodology if not willful promotion of a failed Party Line. Absent any pretense to integrity, who cares what escalating idiocies Mde. Julia and her junk-science coteries serve up?
U.K. papers should publish quarterly Met Office forecasts, complete with the Madame’s cumulating off-the-wall erroneous track-record, ensuring that her asininities cannot be “disappeared” by serial propaganda fraud. But hey, are not disproportionate bonuses in order? Surely, Mde. Julia’s pronunciamentoes are “good enough for Government work.”
I wish some of that global warming would come to the US and relieve the drought! Oh, wait…
Rubbish. Wet means there is a fight going on. I have shown that many times in my blogging on the UK that the wetness precedes large scale changes to cold. Dryness means there is no fight at all. Large scale dry forecasts that came out of the UKMET office were because they did not understand what the heck is actually going on in the overall climate pattern, it doesnt fit their agenda of man driven climate change. Its the oceans, and the sun, It cant get wet unless cold is present to clash. Its that simple. Given the reality of the global weather picture where temps have leveled off and since the start of the cold pdo have begun to fall, this is rubbish. In fact the reason we can argue that it is wetter in the UK is because of the warm amo ( which would imply more moisture is available since the oceans are the driving force behind the planetary weather behind the sun) but there is cooling ready to clash from what is going on globally, in the larger scale The ignorance of what is happening in the greatest source region of the world, the tropical pacific and the pacific in general and how it is leading to events seen with the last pdo flip to cold while the atlantic is warm tells me that her recital is some virtual weather ( model driven) dogma that is bent on claiming man, rather than the physical drivers that have been here since the start of time, are driving the weather and climate. How is it that the private sector has hit these events, but we get excuses like this from warming driven people
Is there nothing these people are held accountable for? We have been hearing no snow, no cold, dry one thing after another and this is the 4th winter in a row where severe cold. which did back off, but will now come on again over the east and central part of Europe ( UK will have some but the main part of the continent will have newsmaking cold.. and will lead to great suffering) is taking hold. They MAKE UP REASONS AFTER IT HAPPENS FOR SOMETHING THEY DID NOT SEE. Lord knows in private forecasting, we get fired if wrong. This has been a fiasco on a major scale, driving an agenda that if the kind of cold comes even like the earth had in the 70s, societies are handcuffed by the blundering energy policies these people want, and we sit here and accept this. Amazing. we deserve what we get
Met Office?
It’s what civil servants do – drones, they tell lies and very big ones at that because they can get away with it, no heads will roll. It is a political project, they are doing the work of their masters in Brussels and thus: mankind is warming the planet, by pumping CO2 into the atmosphere is the meme.
and by the way, anytime she would want to debate me on the BBC on the large scale physical drivers that dictating the global weather and where we are going, I am ready. I would love to have that chance, as I am sure many of us would
Professor Sluggo? Oh noooooooooooooo…….
First we can expect more dry warm weather and snow will be a thing of the past…now they tell us it’s going to get wetter due to AGW. However last month they told us there had been no warming for 15 years. Just what is going on?
Earlier in 2012…
SUMMARY – PRECIPITATION:
For the 3-month period January-February-March 2012, for UK precipitation, the broad-scale signal, although weak, is for somewhat wetter conditions than normal. Northwestern parts of the UK are most vulnerable to very wet conditions.
Above average winter rainfall is needed in southern, eastern and central England for a full recovery of the water resource situation here – it currently looks unlikely that this will happen.
The probability that UK precipitation for January-February-March will fall into the driest of our five categories is 15-20%, whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 20-25% (the climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).
SUMMARY – PRECIPITATION:
Rainfall significantly above average is needed in southern, eastern and central England during the February-March-April period for a full recovery of the water resources situation here – the chances of this happening are low.
For February there is a slightly elevated risk of well-below-average rainfall across the UK as a whole.
The probability that UK precipitation for February-March-April will fall into the driest of our five categories is about 20%, whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is about 15% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).
SUMMARY – PRECIPITATION:
Rainfall substantially above average is needed in southern, eastern and central England during the early spring (March-April) period for a recovery of the water resources situation here – the chances of this happening are very low.
During March the forecast for the UK as a whole favours dry weather, and the wind direction preferred in our forecasts makes the southeast of the UK more prone to dry weather than the northwest.
The probability that UK precipitation for March-April-May will fall into the driest of our five categories is 20-25% whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 10-15% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).
SUMMARY – PRECIPITATION:
For UK-average rainfall, the predicted probabilities slightly favour above-normal values during both May and May-June-July. However, confidence in this prediction is not high, and there is still a significant probability of below-normal rainfall.
Whilst the wet weather of recent weeks will have had a positive effect on soil moisture, with all that that implies for agriculture, it is unlikely to have had a significant impact on groundwater supplies. With the forecast for May and May-June-July not favouring a continuation of the current very wet spell, groundwater resources in southern, eastern and central England are very unlikely to recover during this period.
The probability that UK-average rainfall for May-June-July will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 15%, whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 30% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).
SUMMARY – PRECIPITATION:
For UK-average rainfall, the forecast for this summer is very uncertain, due to a lack of any strong driving factors. Although there is a somewhat elevated chance, relative to climatology, of the summer being wet, it looks unlikely that there will be very wet conditions. However, the probability of very dry conditions remains close to climatology.
The probability that UK-average rainfall for June-July-August will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 20%, whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 25-30% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).
I hopes this helps. I did a scatter plot of predicted vs actual, and the best fit line is perpendicular to a line through the origin…
Joe,
Even if Prof. Slingo accepted your offer of a debate, the BBC would not air it. They would not be allowed to by the Government.
Here we see Julia Slingo blaming her execrable forecasting on- global warming
It is now the standard ploy of public types to blame their screw-ups on that. Thank God for the blogosphere where such as Slingo can be held up to public scrutiny.
I agree with Joseph Bastardi. I am not a meteorologist, but I do try and think critically about what they are trying to say. When they said that “warmer temperatures mean more water vapour” and cite that as the reason for record rainfull in 2012, I start to wonder what the effect would be of that extra 1c or so on rainfull. Maybe there would be a little more moisture and rainfull would be a little heavier than otherwise. But the defining pattern of 2012 has been the longevity of the rainfull, not the intensity.
As Joe says, any rainfull is caused by a clash of fronts – warmer air rises over a cold air mass, and hence drops its water vapour as rain. The real question is why has the weather conspired to produce front after front clashing over the British Isles? I can’t answer that question, but it is equally clear that it has nothing to do with the “rising temperature equals higher water vapour” conjecture. In fact, if anything else was noteworthy in 2012, it was that temperatures in summer were below normal, and yet rainfull was greater than normal – the exact opposite of the Met office conjecture.
One wonders whether any of these people actually think of the consequences of their words before they leave mouth.
Joe, I would not hold your breath on any chance to correct those public funded climate jokers on live tv. The media buries all the stories on Asian and European cold winters and certainly could care less for the reasons, and even more don’t give a damn about who freezes to death. In fact I never see any news regarding extreme cold anywhere on the planet. But have a drought or warm period….you would think the world was about to end.
To Joe Bastardi –
I am 100 Percent with you, Sir!
My wonderful wife has the knit pullovers ready for our family of four just in time for the coming cold spell. Folks, get prepared: This one’s not going to be pretty here in Europe!
“The trend towards more extreme rainfall events is one we are seeing around the world, in countries such as India and China, and now potentially here in the UK”
Only “potentially”, hence not yet observed, if ever. How beautifully circumspect.
What’s about the action and reaction in this statement “the long-term trend towards wetter weather is likely to continue as global air temperatures rise“? It’s only one part.
The second part would be:
More clouds that will reduce the temperature in the places where the clouds are. A rainfall it will also cool the air where it takes place.
This is means that we have a zero-sum-game. It means that any warming somewhere will result in some cooling somewhere else. Take the average and you get zero.
It must take genius to get it wrong 90% of the time when you always have a 50-50 chance of getting it right.
Joseph Bastardi says:
January 6, 2013 at 6:18 am
We live in the real world – though few presenting their CACA theism will admit it – and in the real world, “global warming” is MEASURED this month right at 1/5 of one degree C. MEASURE the last few months, the satellites tell us “global warming” was 1/4 of one degree C. Measure a little before that, you get 1/3 of one degree. (Hmmmn. Temps going down., Maybe the storms are caused by global cooling? Maybe the storms are measuring global cooling? /sarchasm – that gaping hole between a liberal and the truth. )
Storms and rain and hurricanes also “live” in the immediate, right now, “real World” of today’s temperatures and humidity and jet streams and “global warming” … Somebody’s CACA fears of a 4 or 5 degree rise in global temperatures in 100 years or 1000 years CANNOT affect today’s weather and today’s storms.
So, if the Met’s propaganda (er, storms) are affected by the real world temperature change from 1970 of 1/4 of one degree rise, then they MUST have have even more storms and rains and snow in 1998’s 1/2 of one degree one-year “pulse” of global warming, right?
Snow and rain MUST have been so extreme in 1998 that everybody … er .. . did just fine.
Hmmmn.
Each forecast must be accompanied by the appropriate retro-cast record of previous casts. As American baseball is a game of statistics that has produced insights beyond the mere game, so should forecasting allow clear sight.
Also, what Mr. Bastardi is too modest to say is that he has been predicting for some weeks now that a major stratospheric warmup would lead to a lot of people getting pretty cold soon, and that the mainline models and weather blogs are only now coming into line with his thinking. Well done Joe.
http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-january-5-2013
My prediction is within 50 comments some well meaning alarmists will degrade WUWT and other comment makers over this story. On average they will reply 3 times each.and either site very old scientific papers or none at all.
75 % will miss this comment as it takes time for alarmist sites to direct attention to here. However 90 % may be referred to this comment and as little as 10 % will ever see it on their own
In summery zero to 100 % negative feedback to this comment will prove that the alarmist position has been decided in the past and refuses to look at ever changing evidence .
If I am wrong I will make new predictions over 75 . 100 and 125. comments from now.
And now that they are predicting wetter conditions I predict there will be drier conditions. The MET is actually very accurate if you apply a 180o phase shift.
Joseph Bastardi says:
January 6, 2013 at 6:18 am
The UK ‘government’ is currently spending £18 Billion ( $28.8 Billion ) every year to meet self imposed targets on ‘green energy’ such as windfarms. This is to address the ‘catastrophic’ threat of climate change (!?). The effect of this spending is to force large numbers of the population into fuel poverty.
(Quarter of households ‘face fuel poverty’ as incomes stagnate and energy bills soar
More than 5m households spend over 10% of income on energy
Ministers under increasing pressure to abandon green targets
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/bills/article-2069395/Quarter-households-face-fuel-poverty-incomes-stagnate-energy-bills-soar.html
300,000 more homes in fuel poverty
Some 300,000 more homes are likely to have been pushed into “fuel poverty” by Christmas amid soaring energy prices, an advisory body warned today.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/9749412/300000-more-homes-in-fuel-poverty.html )
So the politicians need the met office to keep shrieking about ‘catastrophic climate change’ regardless of the evidence – and they fund the Met Office. So every type of weather is ‘talked up’ into catastrophe and the cause is always ‘climate change’ (as even the least attentive of the electorate have cottoned on that global warming isn’t happening – it has to be climate change). This puts the government servants at the Met Office into increasingly difficult and contorted positions as we have seen with drought turning to floods. So while I can understand the amazement at the lack of skill in their forecasting it does not surprise me. What does surprise me is the willingness of forecasters to risk professional reputations to save the backsides of the politicians.
If Hubert Lamb [knew] what was going on with the MO he would turn in his grave, these people now in charge are looking in the wrong direction, they are relying on the future being controlled mainly by Co2, and that this will tell them everything about where the climate is going, Co2 is leading them to the wrong conclusions. This is becoming more apparent day by day. Lamb’s legacy is that the past has all the clues to the future, until they rediscover this, they will continue to get it wrong time and time again, A proverb my mother taught me was “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket” and is still true today. I had great respect for the Met Office once, now I am just sad about the whole shambles it now is.
Keith Gordon
Occasionally the Met Office mentions the Jet Stream, the movement of which causes the type of weather we get in the UK. As the Met Office cannot predict the movements of the Jet Stream, its forecasts beyond 5 days are worse than guesses. Piers Corbyn gets it right much more than 50% of the time because he doesn’t use a model driven by carbon dioxide.
joated says:
January 6, 2013 at 6:00 am
The Met office needs a new dart board. The one they have now is obviously faulty
It’s the bent darts that need changing.
Slingo, the forecaster that got stuck at London airport on her way to Cacun for the climate conference jolly due to ………………………………….. heavy snow.
These pillocks are laughable. I feel really sorry for the brits. £137 / an for this crap. Oh and Betts thinks I’M RUDE.
The Met Office’s weather predictions remind me of those people who select their national lottery numbers based on previous patterns.
Keith Gordon says:
January 6, 2013 at 7:36 am
If Hubert Lamb [knew] what was going on with the MO he would turn in his grave
He does know or knew. Just before his death he commented on the destruction of his beloved unit by ……… Jones et al. He knew what they were up as we all do now.
Lamb was a genuine weather scientist and a good man.
Andy says:
January 6, 2013 at 7:15 am
Just predict like the Met off. ‘within the range of 0 to 1000 at 70% confidence. 🙂
So let’s get this established: The Met’s short-term computer models are unreliable, but their long-term computer models are reliable?
The Met decad forecast of November 2010 can be found at http://liveweb.archive.org/http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/decadal-prediction
Joe Bastardi, I would love to see you, Anthony or anyone else debate with Julia Sllngo, unfortunately it is not going to happen for the following reason “the science is settled” and the reasons for that are:
1) No-one would dare they would admit that they are wrong. That goes for all the “scientists”, civil servants, windmill builders, the EU and eco freaks who get loads of cash from it. The British government may have a way out of it if they can claim they were duped and given bad advice in the first place.
2) The BBC and the other left wing propagands machines have it stitched up. I read the paper and listen to the news, but the first I heard of the snow and severe cold in China and Asia, was here. The BBC weather forecast plays down any weather events that may let viewers/listeners question AGW. “It will be exceptionally MILD!” is what we have had over the last few days on the radio, with an emphasis on the word MILD.
3) The fact that the general population do not question that an increase in CO2 of 9/100,000 is going to be cataclysmic, shows the lamentable state of science teaching in this country.
4) There is a general apathy about AGW.
To finish on a lighter note, I have copied my post from an earlier item about the Met Office, it seems to be more appropriate here:
“There’s evidence to say we are getting slightly more rain in total, but more importantly it may be falling in more intense bursts” — Julia Slingo
That reminds me of Eric Morecambe’s reply to Andre Previn when questioned about his piano playing. “They are the right notes, but not necessarily in the right order”
The met office is instructed to lie to the public about its long term forecasts.
Simple truth is, that this globe is cooling and oceans give warmth to the athmosphere with lot of moist in it. It rains down somewhere.
noaaprogrammer says:
January 6, 2013 at 8:00 am
So let’s get this established: The Met’s short-term computer models are unreliable, but their long-term computer models are reliable?
From their website they use the same model for short and long-term global and local weather.
The UKV model – Kilometre-scale forecasting over the UK with the Unified Model
the Met Office runs a version of the Unified Model over the UK with a grid length of 1.5 km usually referred to as the UKV. Examples of weather phenomena that require such a model include fog filling valleys, enhanced rain over mountains and higher temperatures in cities. However, the main benefit is to better resolve convective showers or storms which, in extreme cases, can give rise to major flooding events or disruptive snow in winter.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/ukv
UK weather forecasters can predict cold winter weather a season ahead with more confidence, according to analysis of a new computer model.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19584302
Weather forecasting really hasn’t gotten any better in the last 3 years, in spite of what we’re told. Just watch your local forecasts. Pick a day 5 days out, and then watch that day as it gets closer. It will change. Which means the 5 day forecast isn’t as good as the one-day forecast from 30 years ago, as I saw from a MET office quote a few days back (haven’t been able to find it again).
Sure, with sat images and doppler radar, they can tell you everywhere it’s raining. But those clouds coming in off the coast could dissipate in 12 hours, or get thicker, they just don’t know.
Sports predictors and astrologers got nothin’ on the error rate of weather forecasters.
Oops, my previous post “hasn’t gotten any better in the last 3 years” should be “30 years”, not “3”.
Slingo says
“the long-term trend towards wetter weather is likely to continue as global air temperatures rise. “
Henry says
the actual reason as to why a certain latitude band get more clouds and more rains is due to global cooling.
All data sets now show we are globally cooling
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2013/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2013/trend/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2002/to:2013/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2002/to:2013/trend/plot/rss/from:2002/to:2013/plot/rss/from:2002/to:2013/trend/plot/gistemp/from:2002/to:2013/plot/gistemp/from:2002/to:2013/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2002/to:2013/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2002/to:2013/trend
for explanation you can follow discussion here
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2012/10/02/best-sine-wave-fit-for-the-drop-in-global-maximum-temperatures/
noaaprogrammer says:
January 6, 2013 at 8:00 am
So let’s get this established: The Met’s short-term computer models are unreliable, but their long-term computer models are reliable?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Naaaah,
The Met is a political stooge. All they put out is propaganda with a possible very short range accurate forecast.
Everything else is window dressing for “The Message” (Mankind is EVIL and must pay carbon indulgences to the priesthood)
Joe B: Please don’t waste your time. Your knowledge is not effective when the other side is unable to understand real science; or even to listen to logic. You’ll get faith answers to unasked questions and vicious moderator attempts to throw sham simplities at the larger audience.
Speaking of science; surely the Met can base their change in faith upon some pal published research? Perhaps an English BBC subsidizer can FOI them for their references and all communications regarding same? Hopefully without having to watch the BBC spend lots of hard earned British tax money on fighting science transparency?
This wet year in the UK has had nothing to do with rising temps and everything to do with the jet stream pushing southward and largely staying there. The Met Office just need to look at there own temperature charts for 2012 and they will see that for 7 month’s of the year temps were at or below average. As l’ve said before since 2007 the trend has been for the jet to move southwards during the summer, the difference this year was that it happened in April and stayed mostly like that for the rest of the year. How the Met Office can claim this southward movement of the jet will lead to warming is beyond me. lt just makes them sound bloody clueless.
Something I’ve noticed about models covering more than 5 days.
They spend most of the time just extrapolating an approximate continuation of the current circulation setup to the end of the run.
Then when they see a change in pattern developing about 3 to 5 days out they then just extrapolate an approximate continuation of the changed pattern for the rest of the period.
In other words predictive skill beyond 3 to 5 days is still zero.
Until a couple of days ago the models were suggesting an indefinite continuation of the mild zonal spell across the UK. Now everything from about 3 days from now shows substantial blocking to the end of the run.
They are just guessing and an old fashioned meteorologist with a set of synoptic charts could do just as well despite 30 years having passed, billions having been spent and whole new institutions having been created.
Met Office 2002: “They showed the UK faced drier, warmer summers and wetter, milder winters. ”
Met Office 2009: ” The scientists say summer rainfall in south-east England could decrease by one-fifth by the 2050s. ”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jun/18/uk-weather-climate-impact-report
But now the trend is “towards wetter weather” ?????????????
cui bono says:
January 6, 2013 at 7:00 am
It must take genius to get it wrong 90% of the time…
____________________________
Not when your predictions must go along the CAGW agenda at the same time that reality insists going the opposite way.
Wait a minute. The Met Office in 2009 was saying increased global temperatures result in drought. Now they are saying increased global temperatures result in flood?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/sep/28/met-office-study-global-warming
As opposed to:
The Met Office is the UK’s number 1 national disgrace.
Where the Met Office have cocked up with their forecasts of warmer drier summers. ls that they were expecting the jet to move northwards during the summer, so allowing the fine weather that happens in southern europe to move further north. But since 2007 the jet has not been playing ball.
So they have ended up with egg on their face.
Another Met Office FAIL! Oh the humanity.
http://www.thegwpf.org/met-office-climate-forecasts-always-wrong-but-never-in-doubt/
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/06/13/yet-another-met-office-fail/
james griffin on January 6, 2013 at 6:28 am
First we can expect more dry warm weather and snow will be a thing of the past…now they tell us it’s going to get wetter due to AGW. However last month they told us there had been no warming for 15 years. Just what is going on?
————-
Start with the distinction between a prediction for 20 years hence versus conditions now. Then follow with the distinction between global air temperatures and local ocean see temperatures feeding local weather patterns.
Or more simply: it’s complicated.
Water vapour!!!! But, but I thought there was no trend. Darn the Met Office must be rightwrong again. :-p
http://www.agu.org/journals/pip/gl/2012GL052094-pip.pdf
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/18/new-paper-on-global-water-vapor-puts-climate-modelers-in-a-bind/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/14/another-ipcc-ar5-reviewer-speaks-out-no-trend-in-global-water-vapor/
Did I hear drought?
So I now see that the UK is expected to get more droughtrain. Is there anything this innocent trace gas can’t do?
Slingo should be fired and the Met Office should be closed down and their work given to a private outfit.
LazyTeenager:
Your post at January 6, 2013 at 12:43 pm says in total
Allow me to clarify.
Yes, “it’s complicated”. Indeed, it is so “complicated” that
(a) it has proven to be too complicated for the MO to predict it
and
(b) you don’t have a clue what you are arm-waving about.
Richard
Spinning in the rain, just Spinning in the rain.
What a load of old propaganda, its global warming again.
Oh well Hoisted by their own Petard. Can they just get back to honest to goodness weather forecasting and drop the AGW tosh as its clearly affecting their judgment and making them look increasingly foolish.
I work at a number of the open-air events held in the South of England during the summer months. Not one of the various organising committees relies on the Met. Office forecasts, all use the services of private forecasting companies. As Joe Bastardi says above, when your income relies on being right just about all the time, then your attention tends to become a trifle more focussed!
I sometimes wonder if these people sit at home and think “How long am I going to have to spout this obvious drivel before my lords and masters get it into their heads that it is wrong and just repeating the same thing over and over doesn’t make it any righter”
James Bull
It’s been raining in the UK.
News? Not really. Oddly it’s been raining in the UK, and the populous complaining about it for centuries.
It’s just another item to keep weather in the news and the UK population sensitized to it. It has as much credence as the blathering of Prince Charles.
Aren’t the met office still campaigning for a bigger and faster computer so they can forecast their inaccuracies quicker?
To understand the Met Office position you have to understand a few things:
1. They are a govt department
2. ALL uk vehicle taxation is based on co 2
3. UK govt departments now being run by people who went to university here in 70’s and 80’s
4 Public sector pension funds heavily invested in green companies
i am sure you can think of a few more
“A politician needs the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn’t happen.” – Winston Churchill
Or disappear their predictions.
cui bono says:
January 6, 2013 at 7:00 am
It must take genius to get it wrong 90% of the time when you always have a 50-50 chance of getting it right.
=========================================================================
… and that’s when the rest of us start looking for a dogma instead of a science. 🙂
Anthony, did you really have to include a picture of her? Never mind “scaring the children” – you’ve put me off for the rest of the day…
Do WordPress provide a plugin which obscures a picture until a warning message has been clicked through?
For 18 year period, from 1995 – 2012 inclusive, temperatures in the central England area have been falling at alarming 1.7 degree C / century !
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/L100y.htm
I think the underlying point here is that the UK climate is deteriorating rapidly. We are having to get used to floods and new lakes. When it snows it will be very interesting to say the least. It’s obvious to anyone living in the UK that the climate is changing, we can debate the causes, but the fact is there for all to see. It’s climate change in action, but not as predicted.
@gareth Phillips
I resist the temptation to engage my caps lock and only state:
Climate is always changing.
Thank you Allen for your well thought out and considered post.Climate indeed always changes. It always rains ( in the UK at least) but it is the rate of change and rainfall that is important. It’s a bit like the difference between being hit by a car at 30 miles per hour or 3 miles per hour. They are both moving, but the impacts are very different. Most of the annual record rainfall has taken place since the year 2000. It’s been 4 years since we had a real summer, it’s been raining and breaking records every year for years now. Yes, climate changes from day to day, but sometimes it changes just a bit more than usual and we have to admit that whether this is natural variation or something else, there is something unusual and unpredicted going on. I see from our history that the last time we had weather patterns like this in the 13th century we ended up with the black death hitting a weakened population. While I am not saying that similar things will happen in our century, we need to adapt, adjust and recognise dramatic changes are afoot, at least in the UK. Examples may be ceasing to build houses on flood plains and fantasising about droughts and Mediterranean climates.
Gareth Phillips says:
January 7, 2013 at 7:37 am
I think the underlying point here is that the UK climate is deteriorating rapidly. We are having to get used to floods and new lakes. When it snows it will be very interesting to say the least. It’s obvious to anyone living in the UK that the climate is changing, we can debate the causes, but the fact is there for all to see. It’s climate change in action, but not as predicted.
—————————————————————-
I think the underlying point here is that the UK climate drama production department of government is deteriorating rapidly. We are having to get used to average floods and no new lakes. When it snows it will be the same boring snow as always, to say the least. It’s obvious to anyone living in the UK that the climate isn’t changing, we can debate the causes, but the fact is there for all to see. It’s climate change in action, but not as predicted.
There. Fixed that for you.
Gareth Phillips says:
January 7, 2013 at 9:51 am
Thank you Allen for your well thought out and considered post.Climate indeed always changes. It always rains ( in the UK at least) but it is the rate of change and rainfall that is important. It’s a bit like the difference between being hit by a car at 30 miles per hour or 3 miles per hour. They are both moving, but the impacts are very different. Most of the annual record rainfall has taken place since the year 2000. It’s been 4 years since we had a real summer, it’s been raining and breaking records every year for years now. Yes, climate changes from day to day, but sometimes it changes just a bit more than usual and we have to admit that whether this is natural variation or something else, there is something unusual and unpredicted going on. I see from our history that the last time we had weather patterns like this in the 13th century we ended up with the black death hitting a weakened population. While I am not saying that similar things will happen in our century, we need to adapt, adjust and recognise dramatic changes are afoot, at least in the UK. Examples may be ceasing to build houses on flood plains and fantasising about droughts and Mediterranean climates.
================
Gareth, you are spot on about not, absolutely not, building houses on flood plains.
There is one fact we know about flood plains [although various politicos with axes to grind over the past Idunnohowlong, plainly don’t].
Flood plains can flood.
Goodness.
Can you believe that?
[Rhetorical.]
For the rest, I am unconvinced we have ‘dramatic changes’ going on in the UK’s weather/climate.
Weather, for sure.
Climate change for sure, of some sort, and as always.
But even in the UK we have weather records of only – perhaps – four hundred years [barring exceptional events recorded in ‘Chronicles’ etc]. We have reasonably good records of perhaps a century and a half [before then, it appears, calibration was at best jolly spotty, and consistent recording may not have been the norm]. Even the delightful Meteorological Office – aware of records back well into the Eighteenth Century – insists that [most] records start about the start of the last century [say during King Edward VII’s reign] – see the recent ‘Wettest Year Ever in England’ [since records began – ‘in 1910’!) – when some measurements of rainfall [sporadic in space and time, no doubt] have been kept since the Seventeenth Century.
Four hundred years is about one twenty-eighth part of the time since the last Ice Age cold period proper.
And the climate has changed in that period, but we have no good records [at any definition], of weather observations – let alone of any accuracy! – for twenty-seven of those twenty eight twenty-eighths.
Do we have any clear concept of normal?
Average?
Over a hundred years, maybe; but not ten thosand years!
The wet months in the UK are down to the change to a more southern placed jet stream. The jet stream normally brings in low pressure systems between Scotland and Iceland from the Atlantic Ocean. This causes Scotland and Iceland to get the usual wet weather with England and Wales drier. During these wet periods NW/N Scotland has been drier because the low pressure systems have been further South pushing across especially England and Wales west to east instead of in it’s usual track.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2012/12/2012_12_Rainfall_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif
The southern placed Jet stream has also been a key player for much colder winters over recent years for the UK. The same weather patterns occurring in Winter especially when placed much further South, leads to colder temperatures here increasing the snow risk further North.
The Met Office in the past claimed global warming was to increase rainfall in winter with drier summers. The jet stream with it’s movement northwards during this period was responsible and this would increase the chances of less snowfall. What happened in reality we know is much different and since 2000 the jet stream moved South and has been especially dominant since 2007 with floods and cold winters. The UK always gets a mild winter every so often even during these periods, so this is nothing out of ordinary when it occurs.
Therefore the Met Office didn’t know why the rainfall has increased and with this recent confusion with global warming, obviously still don’t show they know now. The change in weather patterns reflects more like the Little Ice Age UK then global warming UK, when southern tracking lows often brought snow/cold and very wet weather.
Gareth Phillips says:
January 7, 2013 at 9:51 am
“It’s been 4 years since we had a real summer”
The last real summer in the UK occurred during 2006, so that’s now nearly 7 years.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2006/14/2006_14_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2006/14/2006_14_Rainfall_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2006/14/2006_14_Sunshine_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif
The summer of 2009 wasn’t as poor compared with recently, but still nothing to write home about.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2009/14/2009_14_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2009/14/2009_14_Rainfall_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2009/14/2009_14_Sunshine_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif
This summer was quite dull and wet away from far SE England, whereas Northern Scotland was just wet.
One day they will go back to proper forcasting and take out the bias they have in there computer programs.in thecmean time this once respected prganisation will be the jpke it has become.
You may (or may not – it’s OK) remember a song from the mid-60s called “Ringo.”
“Ringo” became a hit single performed by the Canadian actor, Lorne Greene, in 1964. The song tells the tale of a lawman and his relationship with a gunfighter he had nursed back to health.
“Ringo” was written by Don Robertson and Hal Blair.
As a result of all this… YOU… get a poem. I thank Lorne Greene and Julia Slingo for their inspiration.
First, to refresh your memory: “Ringo” lyrics as performed by Lorne Greene.
Followed by my original composition, “Slingo,” performed by no one.
————–
Ringo (by Don Robertson and Hal Blair)
He lay face down in the desert sand
Clutching his six-gun in his hand
Shot from behind, I thought he was dead
But under his heart was an ounce of lead
But a spark still burned so I used my knife
And late that night I saved the life of Ringo
I nursed him till the danger passed
The days went by, he mended fast
Then from dawn till setting sun
He practiced with that deadly gun
And hour on hour I watched in awe
No human being could match the draw of Ringo
One day we rode the mountain crest
And I went east and he went west
I took to law and wore a star
While he spread terror near and far
With lead and blood he gained such fame
All through the West they feared the name of Ringo
I knew someday I’d face the test
Which one of us would be the best
And sure enough the word came down
That he was holed up in the town
I left the posse out in the street
And I went in alone to meet Ringo
They said my speed was next to none
But my lightning draw had just begun
When I heard a blast that stung my wrist
The gun went flying from my fist
And I was looking down the bore
Of the deadly .44 of Ringo
They say that was the only time
That anyone had seen him smile
He slowly lowered his gun and then
He said to me “We’re even, friend”
And so at last I understood
That there was still a spark of good in Ringo
I blocked the path of his retreat
He turned and stepped into the street
A dozen guns spit fire and lead
A moment later, he lay dead
The town began to shout and cheer
Nowhere was there shed a tear for Ringo
The story spread throughout the land
That I had beaten Ringo’s hand
And it was just the years, they say
That made me put my guns away
But on his grave they can’t explain
The tarnished star above the name of Ringo
——————
Slingo (by Rick K)
She said straight-up the sceptered land
Would soon turn into desert sand
She heard others say global warming was dead
But under her skull was a brain of lead
My brain burned as I grabbed my knife
And was sorely tempted to free my life from Slingo
I listened to her till the urge had passed
But listen hard because she talks fast
Then from dawn till setting sun
She spoke of relentless deadly sun
And hour on hour I watched in awe
No human alive could build a house of straw like Slingo
One day we met on a mountain crest
We both did what we thought best
I took to science and used my brain
While she spread terror for selfish gain
With models and forecasts she gained such fame
All through the West they fear the name of Slingo
I knew someday I’d face the test
Would brains or models be the best
And sure enough the temps came down
And water flowed all through the town
I watched my car float down the street
And I went in alone to meet Slingo
They said my brain was next to none
And my cogent thought had just begun
When I felt a blast that stung my wrists
As she beat her chest with both her fists
Clutching her forecast in her hand
“Britain will be an isle of sand!” said Slingo
They say that was the only time
That anyone had seen her smile
She slowly lowered her arms and then
She said to me “This drought won’t end”
And so at last I understood
Talking sense would do no good with Slingo
“Julia!” I said, “Your forecast’s a bust!
It’s the only thing that’s turned to dust”
A dozen taxis flowed down the road
She hopped on one as would a toad
The Met began to shout and cheer
They alone offered to buy a beer for Slingo
Julia’s drought spread throughout the land
As rain-soaked Britons could barely stand
And it was just her hubris, they say
That made me want to run away
I screamed, “Julia! On you is the onus!”
But she ignored me and went off to collect the bonus of Slingo
Yes, Joe, accountability is what’s missing. And not preparing for the Cold is going to kill people. That one sentence should be repeated loudly until some of the public get worried, and start complaining loudly. I see no other option.