Guest post by Steve Goreham
Originally published in The Washington Times
The Mayan calendar is about to end, and with it, the world.
People love nothing more than an apocalypse. Meteor collisions, alien invasions, super volcanoes, nuclear winter, and global warming all provide great material for mass entertainment and breathless news reporting.
The latest apocalypse to capture our imagination is the idea that, along with the Mayan calendar, the world will end on the 21st day of this month. The Mayan “Long Count” calendar, which began in 3114 BC, ends on December 21, 2012. The calendar is supposedly the measure of days from the beginning of humanity to the end. As a result, some doomsayers predict the end of the world in a few days.
Proposed scientific reasons why we won’t have a merry Christmas include ejection of mass from the sun, a sudden switching of Earth’s magnetic poles, a massive meteor collision with Earth, and a sudden shift in Earth’s crust. At this very moment, people across the world are stockpiling guns, machetes, kerosene, matches, sugar, and candles in preparation for the coming disaster. But our National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA) assures us that the world won’t end on December 21.
Over that last two centuries, most doomsday threats have been blamed on humanity itself.
Consider overpopulation. The Anglican minister Thomas Malthus postulated in 1798 that global population would outstrip mankind’s ability to feed itself, leading to economic disaster. Dr. Paul Ehrlich followed up with his 1968 book The Population Bomb, predicting that hundreds of millions of people would starve to death during the decade of the 1970s. But the agricultural revolution of the twentieth century and slowing population growth have confounded the predictions of Malthus and Ehrlich.
Other feared man-made catastrophes include killer air pollution, global thermonuclear war, worldwide disease pandemics, economic collapse from passing the production point of peak oil, and disaster from genetically engineered foods. While the jury is still out in some cases, these predicted catastrophes do not appear to be occurring.
But the greatest of all these fears is Climatism, the belief that man-made greenhouse gases are destroying Earth’s climate.
Alarming climate change predictions would fit well with Mayan fears, but they need a little more time. According to economist Lord Nicholas Stern of the London School of Economics on the impacts of global warming: “…what we are talking about then is extended world war…People would move on a massive scale. Hundreds of millions, probably billions of people would have to move…” From environmentalist Bill McKibben: “The world hasn’t ended, but the world as we know it has—even if we don’t quite know it yet.” From Dr. James Lovelock: “…before this century is over billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable.”
What’s amazing is that the theory of dangerous global warming is accepted by the majority of world leaders. Today, the heads of state of 191 of the 192 nations are pursuing policies to try to stop the planet from warming. Most leading universities, NASA and other major scientific organizations, most of the Fortune 500 companies, and the news media accept the pending doom of man-made climate change. The world is spending over $250 billion each year to try to “decarbonize.”
But empirical evidence does not support the theory of catastrophic man-made warming. The 0.7oC rise in global temperatures since 1880 was matched one thousand years ago during the Medieval Warm Period, when temperatures were warmer than today. Despite increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, Earth’s surface temperatures have been flat to declining for more than 10 years. Arctic ice has been declining, but Antarctic ice, which is 90 percent of Earth’s ice, has been increasing over the last 30 years. Sea levels are naturally rising at 7‒8 inches per century, but no evidence shows that accelerating sea level rise is underway. Hurricanes and tropical storms are neither more frequent nor stronger today than in times past. Polar bear populations have more than doubled in the last 50 years.
So, complete your Christmas shopping and don’t sell your winter coat. The world may end, but not before you have to pay your taxes and your credit card bills.
Steve Goreham is Executive Director of the Climate Science Coalition of America and author of the new book The Mad, Mad, Mad World of Climatism: Mankind and Climate Change Mania.
Washington Times
[Thanks, fixed. — mod.]
So, what are you doing for Apocalypse day?
Happy Apocalypse day to all!
I wonder if Ex-Prime Minister of the U.K. , Gordon Brown is waiting anxiously for the 21’st;
http://www.scotsman.com/news/brown-fifty-days-to-save-the-world-1-779582
Dr Lovelocks prediction is likely to be proven true
“From Dr. James Lovelock: “…before this century is over billions of us will die …”
Since it is highly unlikely that anyone alive today will be alive in 2100, there will likely be almost 7 billion deaths within the next 90 years possible more like 8 or 9 given accidents and birth/ mortality rates around the world
Due to times zones, Australia hits the 21st of December before the USA does. Does that mean we’ll snuff it before you do? Just askin’. 🙂
I bought a bottle of salad cream today, the use by date is the 21st of December 2012.I think it may be Mayanais.
Oh crap! I’ve maxed out my credit cards and overdraft, told my boss to stick it, left my wife and kids and blown every cent on booze and broads on the premise that its all gonna be over on the 21st…now my hyperventilating is pumping out lots of CO2, so surely the oceans are going to rise super fast and swamp us all before the end of the year? Please tell me it’s so, that’s my best case scenario!
No, published in the Washington Times.
Oh yes. Everyone knows the large white goods chain in the UK has gone bust. Everything must go.
Just a few days left on Comet closing down.
“The world may end, but not before you have to pay your taxes and your credit card bills.”
Didn’t some actually do that before the last apocalyptic prediction in recent history – sold everything pending the Saviour’s return only to wake up broke the next day ?
But the computer models say…..
That’s the Washington Times, not the Post! Wishful thinking?
And a Merry Christmas and a happy New Year to all.
N. N. Taleb’s Black Swans will fly before Mayan pigs.
I believe “Originally published in The Washington Post” should read “Originally published in The Washington Times”. Freudian slip? The link leads to The Washington Times.
It just occured to me!
…. the Mayan prediction was about the End of the farce known as ‘man-made’ global warming.
It will certainly be the end of the world for algor, mcfibben et al.
http://www.epaw.org/multimedia.php?lang=es&article=b6
H/T
Mann made global warming, however, does appear well on track to destroy civilisation as we know it.
I will admit to a vague feeling of uneasiness upon seeing news reports of fireballs in the skies caused by largish meteorites burning up in various parts of the world over the last week or so.
But hey, I suppose I’m only human – much as my rational side tells me there’s nothing to worry about.
Just love it! Sanity is such a rare commodity these days. Ahhhhh.
“And if California slides into the ocean
Like mystics and statisics say it will
I predict this motel will be standing
until I pay my bill” – Warren Zevon
Alas, the Washington Times and the Washington Post are rather different publications. You may want to fix the attribution.
guaranteed to cause Alarmists to go into overdrive, especially as the CAGW-Alarmist FT doesn’t even mention CO2 emissions or CAGW in this article:
18 Dec: Financial Times: Javier Blas: IEA expects coal to rival oil by 2017
Coal will rival oil as the world’s top source of energy in five years, as the mineral benefits from booming demand for electricity generation and steel and cement production in China, India and other emerging nations of Asia…
The new IEA medium-term projections, covering the 2012-17 period, bode well for the world’s top coal producers, including Shenhua Group of China, Coal of India, Anglo America, the combination of Glencore and Xstrata, and Peabody Energy…
The watchdog anticipates that strong demand growth in Asia would more than offset the decline in consumption in industrialised countries, where the commodity faces strong head winds because of green policies and competition from cheap natural gas in the US on the back of the shale revolution…
“Thanks to abundant supplies and insatiable demand for power from emerging markets, coal met nearly half of the rise in global energy demand during the first decade of the 21st century.” Ms van der Hoeven said…
The report anticipates India would overtake China as the world’s biggest buyer of seaborne traded coal by 2016. China became the top importer last year, displacing Japan from the top of the ranking for the first time in roughly 30 years…
Australia will continue to dominate the supply of coal over the next five years but supply from Indonesia, even of mineral of lower quality, is growing faster.
The IEA said that global seaborne trade of coal, which last year surpassed the 1bn tonne level for the first time when thermal and coking, or metallurgical, coal are combined, will continue to grow strongly. The watchdog anticipates growth of 3.2 per cent a year, higher than overall consumption growth of 2.6 per cent, as more countries need to import coal to meet growing domestic demand…
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/23d228f4-4910-11e2-b94d-00144feab49a.html
“What’s amazing is that the theory of dangerous global warming is accepted by the majority of world leaders. Today, the heads of state of 191 of the 192 nations are pursuing policies to try to stop the planet from warming.”
Nothing amazing here. The least usefull and least intelligent within a family usually run for office while their smarter siblings stay home and run the familty business. Those who cannot do, usually teach or tell others what and how to do.
I wonder what the correlation between CAGW held views and belief in the Mayan end of the world hysteria is ? The warmista Taliban are right into apocalyptic predictions.
If they are right, then they can claim that they know best about Global Warming. If they are wrong, then there won’t be anyone to call them on it.
Regarding the global warming stuff, – global warming doesn’t mean you will see a 10C surface temperature rise across the globe. What it means is there are more frequent local fluctuations of extremes. Take a look at different countries and look at their record high’s and low’s during the past 100 years. I lived on 3 different continents for the past 35 years and notice a strong tendency with a naked eye. In Europe, back in my home country, we never had lower than -20C in winter and higher than 28C in summer as long as me, my parents and my grand parents can recall. Yet in the last 20 years the climate has changed so drastically, that every winter nowadays brings us -30C and below, while every summer +40C heat waves.
Middle East: we used to get heat waves of 36-40C once or twice a year for a couple of days back 20 years ago but the normal summer temps would mostly keep under 30C. Nowadays, it’s almost never below 40C and most forecast stations stopped saying the exact numbers, – “above average” is the new normal.
Canada: We had over a dozen new records in Alberta in the past 5 years. Our family friends who have lived in the area for over 60 years, say that it was always very cold in winter (below -40C would be very common for at least a month or two each year) Even according to wikipedia, it’s supposed to be -35C and below for at least one month during winter in Calgary, and yet for the last 4 years we barely had a few days of those cold spells here. At the same time we had a new record high in summer 4 years ago (36+) which was the hottest day in the history.
Normally, I never trust polls and surveys as well as doomsayers. I’m a man of science and have sufficient knowledge in the field to say with confidence, that no rogue planets and no meteors are coming to destroy our planet in the near future, pole shifts or any kind of global cataclysms are expected. Unless of course, some ancient and powerful alien race is about to land and turn us all into slaves, lol.
The only real immediate danger would be gamma ray flare as a result a supernova explosion in some distant part of our galaxy. That we can’t predict or avoid in any way but the chances of such an event would be very slim.
However, the climate change is a very real thing and it’s happening right now. All you have to do is use your common sense, go outside and pay attention to what’s happening. We ARE facing a real threat and it won’t take hundreds of years till it hits us hard…
the end of the CAGW world!
Kyoto 2 decision may be illegitimate, unratifiable: Russia
LONDON, Dec 18 (Reuters Point Carbon) – A U.N. decision to extend the Kyoto Protocol until 2020 may be illegitimate and is unlikely to be ratified by all nations, the Russian government said late Monday, adding that organisers “flagrantly” violated procedural rules when making the international law to tackle climate change…
http://www.pointcarbon.com/news/1.2107247
15 Dec: Bloomberg: Matthew Carr: Ukraine May Join Russia to Shun Kyoto as Credits Fall
Russia has appealed against the Doha decision, saying the nation’s attempts to speak at the meeting last week were improperly suppressed.
“We are highly disappointed in both the procedural violations and the conduct of business,” Oleg Shamanov, the nation’s chief climate negotiator, said in an interview in Doha as the talks drew to a close. “There will be very serious long- term consequences for the process.”…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-14/ukraine-may-join-russia-to-shun-kyoto-as-credits-fall.html
Your biggest point is that 191 of 192 countries have bought into CAGW, at least rhetorically. The last time “civilization” bought into something as a group was the witchcraft frenzy of the 14th to 17th century. Neither Islam or Christianity, both of which have or had an avowed program to bring the Word to all the world’s peoples, have been able to do this.
I hadn’t thought of the enormity of this truth before in this way.
The only other historical concept I can think of that might, just might bind eveyone, everywhere into a consensual plan at the level of CAGW, is one of self-interested, ideologically based, money-hungry power-tripping, at the expense of one’s neighbours. That …
Wait: isn’t that CAGW in a nutshell?
Killer Bees. What happened to the killer bees? They were supposed to kill us all by now.
Bryan A says:
December 18, 2012 at 2:29 pm
Dr Lovelocks prediction is likely to be proven true
“From Dr. James Lovelock: “…before this century is over billions of us will die …”
Since it is highly unlikely that anyone alive today will be alive in 2100, there will likely be almost 7 billion deaths within the next 90 years possible more like 8 or 9 given accidents and birth/ mortality rates around the world
*
Didn’t he say that last century, though? I could be wrong, but wasn’t he talking about before the end of 2000?
Why do people think the Mayans were clever enough to know what was going to happen in the future. They were not *that* great. You know, they didn’t even make cars, roads, electricity, computers etc… They just were not as great as people like to romanticise. Sure, it was good that they managed to build a couple of things and do some farming, but come on, they were not “advanced” civilization. Why on Earth anybody would think that those idiots knew what was going to happen all this way into the future is anybody’s guess.
Looks to me like they just have their own Y2K bug in their calender. But they were clever enough to make it happen way into the future. Unlike us, who designed a counting system in the 50’s (or whatever!) which would run out in 2000!
@ Zeke Hausfather
“Alas, the Washington Times and the Washington Post are rather different publications …”
I would say: Thanks God they are different. Steve Goreham has his own column there. http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/climatism-watching-climate-science/
“Today, the heads of state of 191 of the 192 nations are pursuing policies to try to stop the planet from warming. ”
So which state is the lucky one?
“Bryan A says:
December 18, 2012 at 2:29 pm
Dr Lovelocks prediction is likely to be proven true
“From Dr. James Lovelock: “…before this century is over billions of us will die …”
Since it is highly unlikely that anyone alive today will be alive in 2100, there will likely be almost 7 billion deaths within the next 90 years possible more like 8 or 9 given accidents and birth/ mortality rates around the world”
Sarc://
Billions are going to die. Yeah the Vogon’s are coming.
Sarc off://
Doug Proctor:
At December 18, 2012 at 3:22 pm you assert
Actually there was a much more recent case than that and it was even more generally accepted than AGW is now.
It was eugenics only a century ago. And we all know what that led to.
Richard
Okay, I live in the far north of Alberta, Canada. Me and my family will definitely make it during the upcoming climate disaster. Sorry about the rest of you lot.
On the down side, I would miss my kids enjoying Christmas. On the up side, I won’t have to file with IRS.
Of course I can’t see the IRS letting me off the hook, for a little thing like the end of the world. So, I hope we are all here on the 22nd.
Cheers
The Mayan Calender, like most astrological systems, is cyclic. In a cyclical universe, there are no final endings, just a series of new beginnings. So to be fair to the Mayans, it’s a false interpretation to suggest this means the world comes to an end. It only marks the end of an age, and the beginning of a new one. It’s neither positive nor negative. In fact, failing to take into account that nature generally changes in a cyclical fashion, rather than a linear one, is part of the fallacy of CAGW. In that sense, the Mayans were actually a step ahead of a lot of our climate scientists.
But you do know that this prediction is long past? Right?
Think aboot it, there have been approx 514 leap years since Cesear invented it. The Mayans did not account for this. So without those extra days every 4 years it would be about July 28, 2013 today. Do the math, the world should have ended aboot 7 months ago. – From, You Really Can’t Fix Stupid, Timeline Photos
Aikimox says:
December 18, 2012 at 3:12 pm
“…global warming doesn’t mean you will see a 10C surface temperature rise across the globe. What it means is there are more frequent local fluctuations of extremes.”
Well, your premise is wrong so your conclusion is going to be wrong. The debate is over global warming, not “local” fluctuations, which always happen. Local climates change constantly. The Sahara was lush and verdant 60 centuries ago. There were alligators in Spitzbergen, etc.
I recommend some study on the Null Hypothesis. That should cure your worrying. Nothing whatever unusual is occurring. In fact, the planetary climate has been especially benign over the past century and a half.
Aikimox says:
December 18, 2012 at 3:12 pm
“Regarding the global warming stuff, – global warming doesn’t mean you will see a 10C surface temperature rise across the globe. What it means is there are more frequent local fluctuations of extremes. Take a look at different countries and look at their record high’s and low’s during the past 100 years. I lived on 3 different continents for the past 35 years and notice a strong tendency with a naked eye. In Europe, back in my home country, we never had lower than -20C in winter and higher than 28C in summer as long as me, my parents and my grand parents can recall. Yet in the last 20 years the climate has changed so drastically, that every winter nowadays brings us -30C and below, while every summer +40C heat waves.”
Most of the extreme records of the continents, highs and lows are not recent:
http://www.insidervlv.com/WeatherRecordWorld.html
My hobby’s amateur radio. A group of hams has got together to put “The Official Doomsday Station” on the air. Check out http://www.nowzerodays.com for more info (and I love their background image).
Most of the extreme records of the continents, highs and lows are not recent:
http://www.insidervlv.com/WeatherRecordWorld.html
What a hoot! The two most recent “weather world records” are COLD ones!
“At this very moment, people across the world are stockpiling guns, machetes, kerosene, matches, sugar, and candles in preparation for the coming disaster.”
Am I the only one stock piling the little hex keys you get when you buy flat pack furniture?
Really? Just me??
NASA has assured us the world won’t end on the 21st. This is a great disappointment to Chicago Cub fans.
Ok,Aikimox. I live in Minnesota – over sixty years. Can you send some of your hot air here?
INEPTOCRACY is a system of government where the least capable of leading are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed, are rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a diminishing number of producers.
Aikimox says:
December 18, 2012 at 3:12 pm
Aikimox’s anecdotal evidence of more frequent recent temperature extremes is not reflected in the climate data. This leads me to suspect the he/she is a concern troll.
James Lovelock recently retracted both his quote and his support for AGW alarmism.
Bill McKibben can’t be far behind. 🙂
The only catastrophe to occur is when YouTube deletes all those 2012 catastrophe videos.. hopefully. Leaving them up there is simply evidence of human stupidity.
Nothing like the rubber stamp of Evo “give the planet rights” Morales to lend credibility to Apocalypse Day:
http://indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com/article/evo-morales-looks-december-21-–-‘mayan-apocalypse’-–-new-beginning-146322
Aikimox
When in the history of this planet did the climate not change? If you were around during the MWP or the LIA I am sure the same thoughts would have been held by many.
You mean the all-knowing Mayans didn’t know about leap years? Oh the travesty!
No, I do, too. The only problem is, I never remember where I put them.
/Mr Lynn
Aikimox December 18, 2012 at 3:12 pm
“I’m a man of science…”
Best not confuse weather with climate, reality with models, or politics with science then.
so Jesus isn’t coming back then?!
Party like it’s 13.0.0.0.0
http://www.laprogressive.com/baktun-13/
and
http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/1302887–party-like-a-mayan-on-dec-21-the-world-isn-t-coming-to-an-end
It’s ironic that the Mayan civilization (stretching it here) collapsed long ago due to some kind of regional climate change (that is the consensus, right?).
But I thought the rapture was coming May 2011. Or was it October? Regarding Harold Camping and his false rapture predictions, I always thought it was funny that he claimed to know something Jesus did not. In the gospels, Jesus said he didn’t know the day or the hour (Matthew 24:36) and he also said that the end will come when you don’t expect it (Matthew 24:44). Who gave Harold Camping this special knowledge? Since we are still here, nobody did. It was a false prediction.
In the same way, who gave these climate scientists this special knowledge? Who gave the Mayans this special knowledge to know when the end will come? Whenever I hear a prediction about some global catastrophe, I always wonder who gave that person this special knowledge that I don’t have. There will always be another. If the global temperatures crash like a rock in water it won’t be long before some scientists will preach doom because of our hedonistic modern lifestyle. It won’t be long before someone else will say the rapture is coming on a certain date. And it won’t be long before someone makes a prediction about some super natural disaster. There will always be another because there will always be those wanting to believe so.
So sleep well tonight. I will see you December 22.
I think John Belushi had all of the possible scenarios nailed down back in the 70’s. Locusts could be the one that ends it all for mother gaia…
If the Mayans were so good at predicting the future, how come they couldn’t predict what the Spaniards were going to do to them?
The tipping point was reached when the meme-dissemblers realized “global warming” was past, so they changed the words to “climate change” to cover themselves and yet retain the same means of fleecing the sheeple as they start to chant about “global cooling.”
According to Stephan Lewandowsky, I believe in the Mayan prediction. ( as do many who visit this site.) So please stop making fun of my(our) strongly held beliefs.
Could our current crop of doom-mongering pro-AGW catastrophists be reincarnated Mayan witch doctors who made predictions so far into the future that they could not be validated by those existing at the time?
richardscourtney said @ December 18, 2012 at 3:38 pm
Richard, you beat me to it. There was also tulip mania in the 17thC.
Aikimox said @ December 18, 2012 at 3:12 pm
The World record hot spell was at Marble Bar with 160 consecutive days of maximum temperatures of 37.8 degrees Celsius (100 degrees Fahrenheit) or more from 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924. When Phil Jones asserted on ABC radio that record temperatures were evidence of global warming, I went and looked at record temperatures throughout Australia and discovered that nearly all were in the first half of the 20thC. I guess we had our global warming back then and never even noticed what a disaster had befallen us 🙂
I don’t need to worry about CO2 causing the end of the world by global warming, because the Mayan prediction will get us first. This is why so many climate skeptics are believers in other doomsday scenarios. Makes perfect sense.
John Trigge (in Oz) said @ December 18, 2012 at 6:22 pm
No, they are reincarnated Mayan climatologists, though that amounts to the same thing I suppose 😉
John in NZ…from your reading of WUWT comments and articles…could you please give us a few examples of ‘why so many climate skeptics are believers in other doomsday scenarios’?
Or did you just make that up?
John in NZ said @ December 18, 2012 at 6:34 pm
The Git is old enough to have now lived through several ends of the world. They’re not all they’re cracked up to be, so The Git mostly ignores them these days… He has however stocked up on several cases of his favourite wines — just in case.
Remember… No one makes it out of this world alive.
It’s just where you end up after you die…
Isaiah (9:6) gave the overriding prophecy:
Relax and enjoy Christmas!
A friend of mine recently attended a small lecture being given by a Mayan Elder, who was rather perplexed by all the hoopla over the end of this particular Mayan Calender. “Everyone assumes it signifies the end of the world, but if they really wanted to know what it means, they should have asked us!” He then went on to explain that the Mayans have about a half dozen calenders of various lengths, each signifying a cycle divined from nature, the stars or the gods. The ending of a calender is simply the ending of a cycle. This December 21st signifies the end of the longest cycle in the Mayan Calender system, but not the end of the world.
The whole myth is apparently a product of ignorance. Now where have we seen that before?
We should all be very concerned by this prophecy. The IPCC have made temperature predictions that go beyond December 21st along with predictions of rising anthropogenic carbon dioxide. They are thus implying that both the world and mankind will still exist, and given their track record for predicions up to this point…
“Over that last two centuries, most doomsday threats have been blamed on humanity itself.”
Make that since the beginning of society. Smiting the unrighteous has always been fun and profitable.
Charles Gerard Nelson said @ December 18, 2012 at 6:39 pm
See:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/09/05/stephan-lewandowskys-slow-motion-social-science-train-wreck/
Sweet…. Queue up Steely Dan “The Last Mall” (from “Everything Must Go”) then read this post…..
“Attention all shoppers
It’s Cancellation Day
Yes the Big Adios
Is just a few hours away
“It’s last call
To do your shopping
At the Last Mall
“You’ll need the tools for survival
And the medicine for the blues
Sweet treats and surprises
For the little buckaroos
“It’s last call
To do your shopping
At the Last Mall “
Hi Pompous.Thanks for posting the reference to Lewandowski. I am beginning to panic though. Running low on wine.
Dr Lewandowski is a top Australian Philosopher A small video clip of his philosophy department in action is below.
The Mayan calendar ends on December 21. The Gregorian calendar ends on December 31.
When in doubt, refer to ISO 8601.
Piling on here:
Sometimes history is the science you need. In EVERY warmer period, mankind has flourished. Disasters, drought, plagues, and horrific weather occur ONLY during Cooling.
Take your pick.
Hugh said @ December 18, 2012 at 7:04 pm
Now that’s really scary…
The famous sceptical philosopher René Descartes went into his favourite bar one day and ordered a dry martini. After he had finished the drink, the bar tender asked him if he would like another. “I think not,” replied Descartes and he immediately disappeared in a puff of blue smoke!
Here in New Zealand we are 18 hours ahead of EST, so we will probably make it to December 22.
Aikimox says:
December 18, 2012 at 3:12 pm
May I suggest you read and digest the fine post by rgb@duke qouted in part here:
Source: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/06/22/a-response-to-dr-paul-bains-use-of-denier-in-scientific-literature/
*****************************
If you are not familiar with rgb@duke hang around WUWT for a while.
The missing rapture is a travesty! (it doesn’t help to wake a chiliast)
Denial is the common mode of adaptation to failed prophecy.
The promise of a verifiable event is replaced by a nonverifiable, invisible event.
Group ties are reinforced.
They encyst.
http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,2072678_2072683_2072697,00.html
From Australia.
Had to laugh the other day, I listen to Triple J ( a public owned radio station that even lefties think is a bit too left), they had just finished playing a promo for their end of the world show, mocking the mayans, (yeah the one where they got our Fool of a PM to do the end of the world announcement (sigh)).
Anyhow they had just finished mocking the mayans for their predictions and went straight onto their news program, about climate change where their expert “John Cook” told us all the world was going to end!!!????
Seriously, if only they could just hear themselves….. unbelieveable
If one is going to use THHGTTG you should use this clip
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWWiDKKWDQw&w=420&h=315%5D
Drink up!
“You mean the all-knowing Mayans didn’t know about leap years? Oh the travesty!”
When you measure years by the turning of the solstices, leap years have no significance. They weren’t as stupid as you might think. They were excellent astronomers.
Killer Tomatoes: Uh, I always thought it would be a attack of the killer tomatoes?
“Meteor collisions, alien invasions, super volcanoes, nuclear winter, and global warming”
If you include: nuclear war, global pandemic, overpopulation, peak oil, total economic collapse, rapture, global jihad, cyber world war, Carrington event, and progenitorcide (see ‘grey goo’ or ‘R.U.R.’) I think you will be hard pressed to find anyone who doesn’t spend a few hours each week worrying about the end of the world.
Ok, most of you guys are being way too perspicacious!
This is a secret but I guess I can go ahead and let the cat out of the bag. What’s really going to happen is a subatomic polarity shift. Yes, electrons will become positive and protons negative. Neutrons will stay the same.
Either that or nothing particularly unusual.
What the Mayans probably thought:
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=mayan%20calendar%20cartoons&gbv=2&um=1&ie=UTF-8&tbm=isch&source=og&sa=N&tab=wi&biw=1024&bih=574&sei=DFPRUNGeOMTW2QWSq4DADw
Aikimox says:
December 18, 2012 at 3:12 pm
“… I lived on 3 different continents for the past 35 years…”
All: Note that Aikimox is (likely) about 35 years old. Believes he is knowledgeable, but was a lad of about 10 or 11 when the Iron Curtain came down. Probably doesn’t understand the ideologies represented by both sides of that curtain, nor the propaganda mechanisms used on him by those who were trained and believed in the ideology of the eastern side of the curtain.
“The older I get, the smarter my parents are.”
Erm, what time zone will first see the apocalypse?
And just looky at all the peace we’ve had since then! Woohoo!
Aikimox says: I’m a man of science…
You talk about the weather 20 years ago and compare it to today as if observations about variability during 20 years is science. If you are truly a man of science you will check the records and see what the differences really are–not give anticdotal stores–which are highly subject to confirmation bias.
Thank you D Böehm (December 18, 2012 at 3:52 pm ) for putting it so well in answer to Aikimox.
You know, over this summer in the US, we actually broke hundreds of records for all-time highs. Broke hundreds of records for cold too.
happens a lot–check this out, http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/08/low-temperature-records-overwhelm-highs-in-the-usa-this-past-week-wheres-the-media-to-tell-us-how-this-should-be-viewed/
and check out this for historical facts:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/13/weekly-climate-and-energy-news-roundup-58/
During the hearing, the current drought and the recent heat wave in the US were emphasized by the Democrats and their witnesses. In the 1930s, particularly in 1934 & 1936, the US had a more extreme drought that lasted several years (the Dust Bowl) and a worse heat wave in terms of setting state-wide record temperatures. (Christy produced a chart similar to Figure 25 in http://www.sepp.org/publications/NIPCC_final.pdf)
And finally: Robert Austin says: December 18, 2012 at 5:08 pm
Aikimox says:
December 18, 2012 at 3:12 pm
Aikimox’s anecdotal evidence of more frequent recent temperature extremes is not reflected in the climate data. This leads me to suspect the he/she is a concern troll.
Thank you Robert, because I’m quite sure he is not a scientist.
“DeNihilist says:
December 18, 2012 at 3:47 pm
But you do know that this prediction is long past? Right?
Think aboot it, there have been approx 514 leap years since Cesear invented it. The Mayans did not account for this. So without those extra days every 4 years it would be about July 28, 2013 today. Do the math, the world should have ended aboot 7 months ago. – “
Isn’t it obvious that the Mayans didn’t come up with the date of December 21, 2012? Evidently not to the bright lights here…
That calculation was made by modern Western scholars of the Mayan calendar deciphered from a fragmentary document created a thousand years ago.
BTW, every serious report I’ve read about the Mayan Calendar said that they HAD compensated for “leap year”, and somewhat before Europeans did.
No one knows what the Mayans thought would happen, thanks to ignorant bigots similar to those posting here now, who destroyed all but a tiny fragment of the Mayan intellectual legacy as “the work of the devil”. Things haven’t changed much since the Inquisition, only the jargon, the robes of the inquisitors, and the method of suppression of unorthodox thought.
But how ironic to find this smug, know-it-all attitude here, in a community of self-proclaimed “skeptics”.
Shame!
Watts Up With That? (obligatory snort)
You will find “watts up” when 12/21/12 comes, and your race is wiped off the earth for not faithfully cleaning the litter box of your masters! Mayans, shmayans! Mrow!
As Charles MacKay so aptly expressed it:
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go
mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.”
(From “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds”).
Y’know, a new chapter needs to be written for that book. Perhaps it should
be crowd-sourced from WUWT. “Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming”
aka “Climate Change” is most certainly the 20th century’s madness.
Why should i believe a Mayan prediction when they couldn’t even predict their own end?
Good post, making interesting connections. There’s a large literature on millennarianism, to give it its technical name, derived from the historical record of widespread popular beliefs in Europe that the world would end (with following rapture / kingdom of heaven on Earth) in the years before 1000 CE (AD). It would be an interesting study to compare various other ‘end of the world’ systems of belief that have come and gone over the centuries with current climate alarmism. Don’t know if I have the time or knowledge to do it myself, but maybe someone does.
Aikimox says:
December 18, 2012 at 3:12 pm
Regarding the global warming stuff, – We ARE facing a real threat and it won’t take hundreds of years till it hits us hard…
OK, if you are so sure, give us a prediction of when; with your evidence.
Or is this just another religious belief?
It appears the world is safe since all illustrations show that the Mayians adopted the Aztec calendar.
Send a heartwarming message to someone before end of the world http://noahsarkboardingpass.com/ It is never too late 🙂
Though we laugh this kind of idiocy sometimes has consequences. Remember Harold Camping? Some supporters used up all their assets because they were convinced by a deluded man. The same thing is occurring with CAGW – temperature has disappointingly stalled for 16 years in the face of ever rising c02.
And so it is with Warmists continued failed predictions. Free beer tomorrow.
“Andyj says:
December 18, 2012 at 2:35 pm
I bought a bottle of salad cream today, the use by date is the 21st of December 2012.I think it may be Mayanais.”
Nice one.
There is a series of documentaries on UK TV at the moment called ‘Preppers’. All about families who are genuinely preparing for a collapse of civilisation or global disaster. They are pretty sad and depressed people. Worst of all the way they drag the kids into it. They are the real victims of of all of these end of the world predictions.
With regards to screams of fossil fuels will run out, billions will starve, blah, blah, such alarmists main problem is that they fail to factor in human inventiveness, innovation, new discoveries, adaptiveness etc.Around 1900 there was great fear that London would soon have manure metres high in the streets due to the grown of the horse and cart. Then came the automobile – problem solved.
If you turn the mayan Calendar over it carries on on the other side!
Guys must see this. http://www.stumbleupon.com/su/9RX2p5/www.gay3ty.com/the-world-will-end-in-2012/
‘our National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA) assures us that the world won’t end on December 21’
Oh dear, now I’m worried!
You forgot to mention Planet X 🙂
Never believe anything until it is officially denied and never ever believe anything that officialdom claims about anything at all and you will thrive and survive.
I have examined a great many eschatologies over the past 6 decades, and can claim with the highest confidence that the only common element to all of them has been that they have all been exactly wrong.
The world is not coming to an end. The MAYAN CALENDAR is coming to an end.
That’s all right, though, because very few people have relied on the Mayan calendar for anything for hundreds of years.
I think we will make it past 21Dec2012.
Merry Christmas everyone.
Best, Allan
from wiki
The 2012 phenomenon comprises a range of eschatological beliefs according to which cataclysmic or transformative events will occur on 21 December 2012.[1][2][3][4][5][6] This date is regarded as the end-date of a 5125-year-long cycle in the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar.[7] Various astronomical alignments and numerological formulae have been proposed as pertaining to this date, though none have been accepted by mainstream scholarship.
A New Age interpretation of this transition is that the date marks the start of time in which Earth and its inhabitants may undergo a positive physical or spiritual transformation, and that 21 December 2012 may mark the beginning of a new era.[8] Others suggest that the date marks the end of the world or a similar catastrophe. Scenarios suggested for the end of the world include the arrival of the next solar maximum, an interaction between Earth and the black hole at the center of the galaxy,[9] or Earth’s collision with a planet called “Nibiru”.
Scholars from various disciplines have dismissed the idea of such cataclysmic events occurring in 2012. Professional Mayanist scholars state that predictions of impending doom are not found in any of the extant classic Maya accounts, and that the idea that the Long Count calendar “ends” in 2012 misrepresents Maya history and culture,[3][10][11] while astronomers have rejected the various proposed doomsday scenarios as pseudoscience,[12][13] stating that they conflict with simple astronomical observations.[14]
Bryan A says:
December 18, 2012 at 2:29 pm
Dr Lovelocks prediction is likely to be proven true
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
WRONG CENTURY, he was talking the 20th C and we are more than a decade past his deadline. The only threat to the people of the world are the sociopathic megalomaniacs trying to set up a world government.
http://www.globalgovernancewatch.org/spotlight_on_sovereignty/lamy-calls-for-europeaninspired-global-governance
Colin says:
December 18, 2012 at 2:37 pm
Oh crap! I’ve maxed out my credit cards….
____________________________________
Go buy some kneepads you are going to need them when you apologize to your wife and boss…
Rosco says: @ December 18, 2012 at 2:41 pm
Didn’t some actually do that before the last apocalyptic prediction in recent history – sold everything pending the Saviour’s return only to wake up broke the next day ?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Harold Camping says end of the world is probably Oct. 21, 2011
TBear – ‘killer tomatoes’…? Aha – I see it all now..! That’s why all those cunning tomato growers have been pumping CO2 into their polytunnels – not to increase yields, as I thought – but to make their tomatoes into KILLERS..!
And we’ve all been thinking that CO2 was benign – it was only those 191 out of 192 governments who were wrong – but they knew all along..!
Aikimox says:
December 18, 2012 at 3:12 pm
Regarding the global warming stuff, – global warming doesn’t mean you will see a 10C surface temperature rise across the globe….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I suggest you look up jet streams, Rossby waves, and Zonal and Meridional flow.
The key phrase in the snippet below is “…The geography of insolation isn’t constant but instead varies seasonally, as well as daily. Consequently, the prevailing cells of low and high pressure, including the ITCZ, the subtropical highs, and the jet stream, tend to migrate north and south…
The sun’s TSI may stay close to constant but the mix of wavelengths vary and the ocean absorbs the higher wavelengths where that variation is the greatest.
SEE: NASA: SORCE’s Solar Spectral Surprise “…. SIM suggests that ultraviolet irradiance fell far more than expected between 2004 and 2007 — by ten times as much as the total irradiance did — while irradiance in certain visible and infrared wavelengths surprisingly increased, even as solar activity wound down overall.
The steep decrease in the ultraviolet, coupled with the increase in the visible and infrared, does even out to about the same total irradiance change as measured by the TIM during that period, according to the SIM measurements…..”
NASA: How Much Ultraviolet Radiation Reaches the Earth’s Surface?
To figure out the impact of changes in the sun’s visible and UV radiation remember the ocean surface is 3.61×108^14 meters squared and that is what you are multiplying by. IR has little to no impact on the oceans.
My two cents.
When the “end of the world” doesn’t happen, what will be the next chosen date for it? 2029 for a meteor strike is too far in the future — need something sooner. I like the 2016 date for Obama to finish off the Earth…
richardscourtney says:
December 18, 2012 at 3:38 pm
…..Actually there was a much more recent case than that and it was even more generally accepted than AGW is now.
It was eugenics only a century ago. And we all know what that led to.
Richard
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Richard, it was VERY recent, at least in my state of North Carolina.
In the USA
Do not think this has ended either
ACLU: The DNA of virtually every newborn in the United States is collected and tested soon after birth. There are some good reasons for this testing, but it also raises serious privacy concerns that parents should know about…
John Holdren, Obama’s Science Czar wrote in a book he co-authored in 1977…
As far as I can tell the “Eugenics Movement” just morphed into “Population Control” it never died.
What could be more unfair, and intellectually dishonest, than to lump the fragmentary Mayan end of humanity prediction with any and all other catastrophic predictions? The remarkable accuracy of the ancient Mayan astronomical observations and predictions put them in a class entirely on their own, and demand a corresponding amount of respect.
Quoting Wikipedia as an authority on this subject? Good grief!
What’s next, an opinion poll on the matter from the ethnic Maya currently living in Guatemala and Mexico? Surely it must be clear to any thoughtful person that the Maya’s astronomical knowledge of a thousand and more years ago was received from other sources that have been lost to us thanks to the ravages of time and the pillaging and self-righteous censorship of more recent generations.
I really expected better from this forum.
albertalad says:
December 18, 2012 at 3:41 pm
Okay, I live in the far north of Alberta, Canada. Me and my family will definitely make it during the upcoming climate disaster….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>…
If the Chicken Littles have it backwards you are welcome to join us in NC. I made sure we were below the last terminal moraine when we moved. The climate should be about the same as what you are used to link /sarc
brokenyogi says: @ December 18, 2012 at 3:45 pm
…. In fact, failing to take into account that nature generally changes in a cyclical fashion, rather than a linear one, is part of the fallacy of CAGW. In that sense, the Mayans were actually a step ahead of a lot of our climate scientists.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
So were most other ancient civilizations. Knowing when to plant your crops in an agrarian society was critical. Hence Stonehenge and other monoliths scattered around the world.
D Böehm says:
December 18, 2012 at 3:52 pm
….Nothing whatever unusual is occurring. In fact, the planetary climate has been especially benign over the past century and a half.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Make that the last 10,000 years especially when you compare it to the temperature of the last 140,000 years.
Climate Chicken Littles remind me of the poem Richard Corey
Too much wealth and time on their hands so they have to makeup something to scare themselves with. Unfortunately unlike Richard Cory they want Western Civilization to commit suicided.
David Thomas Bronzich says:
December 18, 2012 at 4:56 pm
INEPTOCRACY is a system of government where the least capable of leading are elected….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
And here I thought it was a KLEPTOCRACY: A system of government where those who seek chiefly status and personal gain at the expense of the governed are elected by those who seek personal gain at the expense of the few remaining actually productive citizens.
(Love the definition BTW)
John in NZ says:
December 18, 2012 at 6:10 pm
According to Stephan Lewandowsky, I believe in the Mayan prediction…..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Darn it now I have tea allover the screen again.
Perhaps some one should send Looney Lew a printed out copy of this thread once Anthony closes comments. Or better yet hand carry it and read it out loud. (Snicker)
Jim Clarke says:
December 18, 2012 at 6:55 pm
… a Mayan Elder…. “Everyone assumes it signifies the end of the world, but if they really wanted to know what it means, they should have asked us!” He then went on to explain that the Mayans have about a half dozen calenders of various lengths, each signifying a cycle divined from nature, the stars or the gods. The ending of a calender is simply the ending of a cycle…”
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Looks like the Mayans actually may have the cycle correct with the sun going sleepy and 16 years of no warming. /sarc
Lord have mercy
Gail Combs says:
December 19, 2012 at 7:32 am
David Thomas Bronzich says:
December 18, 2012 at 4:56 pm
“INEPTOCRACY is a system of government where the least capable of leading are elected….”
You left out some very important additional info:
Ineptocracy: A system of government where the least capable to lead are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed, are rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a diminishing number of producers.
So why is everyone so concerned about the world ending on Friday? It’s not like it’s written in stone, right?
F. Ross @ December 18, 2012 at 8:10 pm says to Aikimox @ December 18, 2012 at 3:12 pm
May I suggest you read and digest the fine post by rgb@duke quoted in part here:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Unfortunately, although that is scientifically the correct path it is not going to happen because the lowering the climate sensitivity is not in climate scientists mandate as Steven Mosher clearly states.
The reason for ‘no C02 sensitivity dial’ is the raison d’être of the IPCC as they clearly state.
The key phrase is of course ” options for mitigation and adaptation” because that opens the door for the control of the whole world’s population and if you do not think that is the ultimate goal all you have to do is read the words of Pascal Lamy, Director General of the World Trade Organization. Do not forget the EU also started out as a trade organization and evolved into a bureaucratic nightmare.
The economic crisis and the 2008 food crisis were not natural and if you bother you can trace the cause back to specific laws that were passed.
The more I dig the more I smell one great big set-up designed to herd the sheeple in the direction wanted, the UN’s Agenda 21.
From what I’ve heard, this coming winter solstice involves a galactic alignment as well as the usual solar alignment. This coincides with the end of the long-count calendar, so it seems pretty clear that the whole point here was a long cycle calendar marking galactic solstices.
Of course, this assumes that I am operating on correct information – but it’s not much of a stretch, given that we know many ancient peoples were quite astute astronomical observers.
BTW, This was the subject of the H2 show I was watching a couple days ago – it was something about the “seven signs of the apocalypse” (yes, I know the first mistake was watching that show…)
That’s the one where some supposed climate scientist (from berkley, I believe) said that recent warming has exceeded ALL model predictions.
The blatant lies on these shows are rather disturbing. And writing letters just doesn’t make any difference – they simply don’t care.
I’m wondering if the guy that gets out of the spaceship is going to be able to communicate to anyone that he has reset the calender and so now someone needs to sign off on the work order. Does anyone still speak Mayan? If he/she/it is union, there might be trouble if he is required to go on unscheduled overtime.
Thanks for sharing your experiences, common sense and feelings. Now can you hit me with the peer reviewed evidence for the weather or climate becoming more extreme? It should be fairly easy because as you say:
Thanks.
Tony G,
We need to take back our mass media from the dogmatic left as well as our educational system. Both are controlled by the “progressives”. (Always get a kick out of that term since those folks are against all progress.) They are using their same basic plan they have used time and again to change a society from within through continuous repetition of lies. If I had a few billion dollars I would start or buy a TV network to counter the lies, Unfortunately I do not. The educational system is another problem altogether and not so easy to fix after 60 years or so of left wing destruction.
Jim G says:
We need to take back our mass media from the dogmatic left as well as our educational system.
Unfortunately, I see no realistic means by which to accomplish this, even given 60 years, within the constraints of existing society.
The BBC lumps together in one story global warmists with UFO enthusiasts, New Agers and Preppers who say the end is nigh – again.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-20764906
REPLY: read it, I don’t see support for your assertion – Anthony
otropogo ,
I can understand (or try to from your perspective) the failure of all the predictions of doom and the end of the world. You can rest assured that someone will soon come up with some new ones for you to fear.
It is somewhat ironic that you can rest assured that there will be another prediction of doom. Anyway, you have my heartfelt sympathy that the earth will still be around next week.
World actually ends in 5105 – we’ve been holding their calendar upside-down!
You know, I really expected a bit more unrest coming up on this date. Nothing huge, and not because of any actual impending doom, but simply due to the human propensity to panic. I’m almost worried that I HAVEN’T seen a couple riots yet…
Thanks, Steve, good post!
The Mayas knew, they had seen the world end a few times (by winds, by fire, by jaguars, by flood).
It was the last one, by drought, that got them. ;-(
beng says:
December 19, 2012 at 6:43 am
When the “end of the world” doesn’t happen, what will be the next chosen date for it? 2029 for a meteor strike is too far in the future — need something sooner. I like the 2016 date for Obama to finish off the Earth…
Sorry that year has already been taken.
http://www.bible.ca/pre-date-setters.htm
In SA they can’t even predict the weather what to say about the end of the world. If its true let it be if its not we going to wait for the next idiot to predict the end of the world for the 100th time.
The predicted world’s end on 21 December is irrational scare-mongering nonsense – but the ‘Millennium Bug’ was not. There’s a difference, and it’s important to the human race that we understand what it is. See my latest blog: ‘Mayan Catastrophe versus Millennium Bug’:
http://jondanzig.blogspot.co.uk/2012/12/mayan-catastrophe-versus-millennium-bug.html
Short link: goo.gl/nok1y
Jim G says:
We need to take back our mass media from the dogmatic left as well as our educational system.
——————————-
TonyG says:
December 19, 2012 at 11:43 am
Unfortunately, I see no realistic means by which to accomplish this, even given 60 years, within the constraints of existing society.
_______________________
The only method I have seen is homeschooling.
The MSM in the USA unfortunately is a also a problem because most people think free speech means the Media is free to investigate and report the facts. Luckily thanks to the internet distrust in the media is increasing. Graph from this article link
I for one gave up on the MSM decades ago. I also encourage homeschooling with the parents I meet.
Well, until I see the two witnesses walking the earth causing droughts and plagues I’m not inclined to believe the end of the world nonsense. /snark/
Revelations 11: 3 And I will appoint my two witnesses, and they will prophesy for 1,260 days, clothed in sackcloth.” 4 They are “the two olive trees” and the two lampstands, and “they stand before the Lord of the earth.”[a] 5 If anyone tries to harm them, fire comes from their mouths and devours their enemies. This is how anyone who wants to harm them must die. 6 They have power to shut up the heavens so that it will not rain during the time they are prophesying; and they have power to turn the waters into blood and to strike the earth with every kind of plague as often as they want.
7 Now when they have finished their testimony, the beast that comes up from the Abyss will attack them, and overpower and kill them. 8 Their bodies will lie in the public square of the great city—which is figuratively called Sodom and Egypt—where also their Lord was crucified. 9 For three and a half days some from every people, tribe, language and nation will gaze on their bodies and refuse them burial. 10 The inhabitants of the earth will gloat over them and will celebrate by sending each other gifts, because these two prophets had tormented those who live on the earth.
11 But after the three and a half days the breath[b] of life from God entered them, and they stood on their feet, and terror struck those who saw them. 12 Then they heard a loud voice from heaven saying to them, “Come up here.” And they went up to heaven in a cloud, while their enemies looked on.
Dude, when the end is neigh, you will in all probability know its going down for sure, it won’t be guess work.
Is the world supposed to end Friday, or just the world as we know it?
There’s a big difference. If it’s the former, let’s party. If it’s the latter, I need to restock the bunker.
So if anybody knows, please respond.
“What’s amazing is that the theory of dangerous global warming is accepted by the majority of world leaders. Today, the heads of state of 191 of the 192 nations are pursuing policies to try to stop the planet from warming.”
Steve, they have a made-in-heaven tax-collecting bonanza – all governments are happy about that kind of thing. Also, since the earth is unlikely to heat by more than 0.7C by 2100, they will be able to crow that their efforts saved the planet. The secret is to kill this thing before they can take credit for saving us all and, in doing so, set up a citizenry in virtual shackles where every little thing will be regulated. Ditto the corrupted universities – what’s not to like about the cash flow? The loss in scholarship is a small price to pay it seems.
I confidently predict that there will be a statistically significant increase in the number of hangovers as the sun rises over an otherwise normal world on December 22nd. The increase may well be of a magnitude comparable with levels over the annual anomaly shift in that parameter a few days later.
I like Elmer’s documentary. Well thought out and has some interesting points. Go Elmer.
the end will be near but not tomorrow
Aikimox (Dec 18th at 3.12p.m.)
Not that record temperatures are the be all and end all of the climate debate but I do believe that all of the world’s continental highest temperatures were set before 1980, but some of the lowest have occurred since then.
Here in New Zealand we are just six weeks away from the 40th anniversary of the hottest day recorded here. Some of the people crying about the end of the world through heat weren’t even born then!
Be also weary of record heat temperatures and where they are gleaned from, i.e. sub-standard weather stations in various heat island situations. Read elswhere on this site if this situation hasn’t been presented to you before.
Have a great Christmas and New Year’s everyone. I have a big year ahead with TWO possible “Great Comets,” in the sky. The two comets in question are well behaved being close enough to us or the sun to get a good view of them, but not so close as to cause mass suicides and the like.
Meanwhile a La Nada inspired drought continues to ramp up in our area despite some attention that we will receive around Christmas from the remnant of Cyclone Evan that has recently ravaged our Pacific neighbours in Samoa and Fiji.
Cheers
Coops.
Lets enjoy the day…
elmer says @December 19, 2012 at 6:33 am
Pretty amazing, Elmer.
There can be no doubt that the world is going to end in 2038. In that year, the Unix timestamp runs out of bits to increment, and all computers will reset themselves to 1901 (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2038_problem). That wil of course completely upset all the climate models; and since, as we all know, reality *always* follows suit, earth will either boil or freeze, or more likely do both at the same time.
Dscott
The Book Of Revelations is such a wonderful work and like the gargoyles that adorn the external of cathedrals,its surface language is strange and forbidding for the less than perceptive in terms of presentation and purpose.What looks like a newspaper account of future events to some is a sanctuary for others but the contemporary mind is either unfamiliar or unable to think in the same terms as those who constructed the narrative and so it goes for many other works of antiquity – it is not their deficiencies but one of the modern heart set on wrong values that prevents interpretations of these great works.
Out calendar is based on a meteorological event coinciding with an orbital event that defines all timekeeping,in ancient times the flooding of the Nile and the annual appearance of the star Sirius from behind the glare of the Sun after an absence of a number of month.It is a supreme discovery that is now rejected in the world of mathematical modelers who aggressively deny that days/years translate directly into rotations/orbital circuits and subsequently a great tragedy for our race
It is one of the quirks that while the space agency NASA takes time out to assure people that the end of the world is not tomorrow,the same agency cannot tell the public what purpose is served by the extra rotation of February 29th in closing out four circuits of the Earth around the Sun when the ancient Egyptians proudly understood that to keep daily cycles fixed to orbital points required the addition of an extra day after 4 consecutive cycles of 365 days –
“on account of the precession of the rising of Sirius by one day in the course of 4 years therefore it shall be, that the year of 360 days and the 5 days added to their end, so one day after every 4 years added to the 5 epagomenae before the New Year, whereby all men shall learn, that what was a little defective in the order as regards the seasons and the year, as also the opinions
which are contained in the rules of the learned on the heavenly orbits, are now corrected ”
Canopus Decree ,Egypt
It is to a 100 % certainty that days/years transform into rotations/orbital cycles directly yet the NASA space agency believes otherwise and ,using a fatally flawed use of Ra/Dec,insists that 24 hour days and daily rotations fall out of step –
“The Earth spins on its axis about 366 and 1/4 times each year, but there are only 365 and 1/4 days per year. ” NASA
http://imagine.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/ask_astro/answers/970714.html
In short,the situation is so dismaying that it would be a major achievement to get scientists to comprehend when the end of the year is let alone the end of anything else.The Earth turns once in a day, a thousand times in a thousand days and never falls out of step regardless whether NASA imagines it turns 1465 times in 1461 days.If you are going to use the Bible,may I suggest the saying about taking the mote out another’s eye when there is a plank in your own.
Elmer,
That is an interesting video.
@A.D. Everard :
If you ARE destroyed first, do please put up a posting so the rest of us can have an extra few hours to party! As I’m in California, and we’re near last, I could likely catch a flight to Hawaii and get a few extra hours!
😉
@Aikimox :
No, it’s not more extremes. Global warming is more HOT extremes.
Your 35 year history is barely 1/2 of a PDO cycle. I’ve got a whole one in the bag now. I can tell you that the weather right now is remarkably like it was in the 1950s. During the 70s-90s it was rather placid in comparison. But the earlier years were much more variable. Heck, they even had New York City hit by a REAL Hurricane. ( 1954 I think it was).
Now, it was even worse before that. The 1800s especially had some mad mad weather. Toe curling stuff compared to now. And even worse earlier. 100 year droughts and the fall of civilizations.
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/11/29/california-extreme-super-flood/ in 1861 …
Then there are Bond Events and Heinrich Events and a long cycle Polar See-Saw:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/12/15/d-o-ride-my-see-saw-mr-bond/
All perfectly natural and all “toe curling” compared to now.
There’s even what look like 5,000 and 23,000 year cycles of even more extreme range.
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/12/20/why-a-henge/
Right now we’re on the top warm end of a 5000 year cycle, btw. There’s Otzi the Ice man just came out from under a glacier… which means it was WARMER when he fell as the ice was not there, then. Similarly there are flash frozen greens coming out from under a glacier in the Andes that, you guessed it, was ice free 5200 years ago when the snows first fell (and never left until now).
But, don’t worry, these periodic events end with a nice cold plunge. It’s going to happen, and there is nothing we can do to stop it.
Why does it happen? We don’t know, but have decent guesses. Looks like a periodic natural oscillation in the Sun / Moon / Earth systems as they interact.
But you can think 35 years is a long time if it makes you feel better…
@Patrick Guinness:
No way the Russians are getting back on the Global Warming bandwagon:
They are busy getting their nose froze and their toes froze and…
http://rt.com/news/russia-freeze-cold-temperature-379/
That sound you hear is The Fat Lady singing… in Russian…
I give it to the Mayans. They had the cosmos from the Earthling perspective pretty well figured out, including future astrological events like eclipses, alignments and planet transits. Now what most folks don’t realize is the 13:13:13:13 actually translates back to 0.0.0.0 a reset of sorts. According to my research on Mayan calendar counts there are 4 or 5 such ages since the “beginning of time” and the real long count is two more sets of numbers long.. so in reality we are at something like 0:4:0:0:0:0 on the count.. maybe 5 like I said its been a while since I researched.. and there is a whole lot of garbage out there now that makes it hard to find the original references.. Im sick of sky is falling theory, why can’t we just admire the work of a people that came up with a calendar that, for their time.. was pretty incredible to say the least. As for the end of the world folks.. it takes nothing to set them off. I wonder if we will be digging up cult idiots again this round like the last time a comet passed close:)
Lew Skannen says:
December 18, 2012 at 4:41 pm
Am I the only one stock piling the little hex keys you get when you buy flat pack furniture?
In other Universe, they are called “Allen wrenches.”
I’ve got a bunch, though I cannot say I am stockpiling them — I don’t buy furniture that often.
An interesting factoid I’ve seen in the news the other day:
65% of Americans believe that “the end of days is near.”
75% of these believe, at the same time, in anthropogenic global warming.
A statistically significant correlation, I would say.
And a truly pathetic state of national culture.
eyesonu says:
December 19, 2012 at 11:11 am
otropogo ,
“I can understand (or try to from your perspective) the failure of all the predictions of doom and the end of the world. You can rest assured that someone will soon come up with some new ones for you to fear.
It is somewhat ironic that you can rest assured that there will be another prediction of doom. Anyway, you have my heartfelt sympathy that the earth will still be around next week.”
I don’t see how you’re able to understand ANYTHING, logically challenged as you clearly are.
Where have I posted that the earth would not be “around next week”? How do poor predictions of global catastrophe prove that all such predictions are false? Does the fact that any number of people have predicted a stock market crash, or an earthquake, or a volcanic eruption that didn’t occur on time constitute assurance that all such predictions are false?
I would hardly expect a crudely translated fragment of an ancient calendar to constitute a precise prediction of anything. In fact, I would consider it the height of stupidity to conclude that because no remarkable global event occurs at 10am GMT Dec. 21, 2012 (for example) that the prediction of an event of global significance (at least to humanity) is thereby disproven for the near future.
OTOH, I would not be surprised if something momentous DID occur on or about December 21, and had been led to expect a thoughtful and informed discussion of possible ways to make sense of the Mayan prediction from an astronomical point of view.
There seems to be some difference of opinion as to the periodicity of the galactical alignment forming on the 21st, with some saying it is an event that occurs every 5,100 years, while others suggest it happens only every 26,000 years. Even this point has not been addressed here, so far as I’ve seen. In fact, the supposed subject, instead of being a focus of debate, seems to have served primarily as a vehicle for unfocused derision of anyone who credits the possibility of any global catastrophe. One would think this is a forum for dinosaurs in denial…
Surely everyone here has at least seen or read of signs of highly advanced civilizations which vanished virtually overnight, with no clear cause. If a solar event were to deprive us of electrical power for even as little as a few months – a possibility that has been quite seriously considered by the US Congress, from my reading – I find it quite easy to imagine the complete disintegration and disappearance of our own civilization, due to its complete dependence on electrical power for water, food, transport, communications and for keeping our nuclear waste from blowing up in our faces.
To suggest, as you do, that to voice such a concern indicates a desire for such an event to occur is a contemptible ad hominem attack that has no place in a forum for scientific discussion.
otropogo,
Thank you for pointing out that I am clearly logically challenged. I guess that was something that I had overlooked in myself. I will give serious consideration to the points you presented in your post above and take precautions as to a possibility that there could be an impending catastrophic event on the 21st.
Perhaps the first thing I should do is go out and buy more beer, lots more and get it on ice as soon as possible. Next I will begin to worry about the possible catastrophic events that could happen. As I worry I will begin to drink beer which should help me worry less because there is nothing I can do about the end of time. If I am still around on Saturday I will worry about my hangover and the need for more beer.
But I will be better off for it as I would then know that I had logically worried myself into a drunken stupor for no logical reason. Should I find myself with a tee shirt and reservations in the circle of hell, I will know that it was illogical to worry about the end of time as there was nothing I could do about it. Now it all sounds logical to me!
About an hour and a half to go for doom to strike New Zealand. I might give them a call just after midnight their time to ask what we can expect here in Australia a couple of hours later.
Hello New Zealand and Australia – are you still there?
Hello! Hello! …..
I want to know if I should pay off my MasterCard and Visa.
Good Morning Allan Macrae.
It is 6.31 am on the 21st December 2012 and I feel fine.
Slightly cloudy. No wind. 15 deg C. No sign of the beginning of the end here.
“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988 to assess the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of human induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for mitigation and adaptation.”
Reminder folks that this was after just 8 years of the planet warming.
No warming until 1980.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1937/to:1980/plot/gistemp/from:1937/to:1980/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1937/to:1980/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1937/to:1980/plot/gistemp/from:1937/to:1980/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1937/to:1949/offset:0.01/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1957/to:1964.17/offset:0.01/trend
Warming after 1980
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1959/to:1988/plot/gistemp/from:1959/to:1988/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1959/to:1988/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1959/to:1988/plot/gistemp/from:1959/to:1979/trend
Breaking news: Mayan calendar found to actually end on Feb 15, 2013.
Newsflash: Mayan calculation of asteroid 2012 DA14 orbit was not perfect! It will miss earth by 21,500 miles.
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2012 DA14&orb=1
Today’s forecast.
D Böehm says:
December 20, 2012 at 1:44 pm
Today’s forecast.
========================================
The forecast was for tomarrow. Tomarrow never comes.
Maybe the Mayans were climate modelers?
Gunga Din says:
December 20, 2012 at 2:03 pm (replying to)
D Böehm says:
December 20, 2012 at 1:44 pm
Today’s forecast.
========================================
The forecast was for tomarrow. Tomarrow never comes.
For toemarrow, yes, for toemarrow is inside the foot of the matter …..
Gail! No! You’re making a HUGE mistake! People from Alberta CANNOT DRIVE!!!
So was it supposed to be the beginning of the day, or the end of the day?
Good Morning John in NZ and Compliments of the Season.
It is now the morning of 21Dec2012 in Alberta and coincidentally, we are still here too!
I wish you and yours joy over the Christmas season, and trust that humanity will survive a while longer, as this planet hurtles and spins its way into eternity.
Well, it’s December 21 and I see n
3pm and all is well!
As I write this it’s just after 3pm, Central Standard time. If the Armageddon were going to happen you’d think it would be on the news already.
I have to confess. I did some stockpiling for the occasion. Not food and guns, or even gasoline. Mostly scotch and bourbon, but a little red wine and some beer as well. Oh, and a bottle of really really good good bottle of cognac. (Think; what would be a good price for a kid’s first car cost today?) Hate to be drinking cheap brandy and have a fortune in the bank as the world comes to an end.
Wife’s having some of our close friends, including the hot neighbor lady, over for an ‘apocalypse partly’ later. This could to turn out to be an interesting day.
(Posting under a pseudonym today.)
TonyG says:
December 21, 2012 at 6:00 am
So was it supposed to be the beginning of the day, or the end of the day?
==================================================================
Since the day has already begun then it must be the end of the day.
Hmmm….How did the Mayan mark a day? OT Jews started the new day at sunset. Others at sunrise. I don’t know when midnight came into fashion.
Anybody know what time zone the Mayan’s were in? Did they use daylight savings time? Gosh! We could have hours left!!
Well, we’re well into the 22nd here in Australia. So, Australia’s end of the world – whoops, bad choice of words, that – I mean, the bit of the world that contains Australia is alive and well (although I have not checked our climate scientists population). How are you guys doing with your end of the… I mean, how’s the other side of the globe doing? It’d do us no good to get half the world destroyed, we’d be all lopsided and it would exaggerate our wobble. I’m talking about the world, you fools, not Australians. 🙂
A.D. Everard says:
December 21, 2012 at 3:05 pm
It’d do us no good to get half the world destroyed,
==================================================
True. Then all be “The Land Down Under’ ….. what?
“Are we dead yet?”
baby sinclar from dinosaurs.
http://youtu.be/Scr0cdZsKCg
just thought it was approriate
I built an annual calendar using electrican tape to mark the two solstices and the equinox days on a North South fence line using a pole shadow. The pole was planted a few years ago. Its a backyard version of a stonehenge just in case. Call me a prepper. I’m ready. Got a great reading on the winter solstice this morning. Its like clockwork.
Suggest you all read (or reread) Emmanuel Velikovsky’s “Worlds in Collision”, as I’ve been doing the past few days. He doesn’t even mention the Mayan 2012 prediction (at least, I couldn’t find a reference to it). But according to the ancient records he cites from all over the world, between 1500 and 700 BCE the earth’s rotation was halted for more than 12 hours at least once, the orbit of the moon changed at least two times, the axis of the earth’s rotation moved significantly at least once, and astronomers from mesoamerica through the middle east to China who were capable of calculating the earth year to within a quarter of a day (post 700 BCE) variously recorded lunar months of 33 and 35 days, years of 360 days, and years of ten months.
Most pertinently, succeeding “scientific” authorities, such as Aristotle, dismissed these reports as simple stupidity. Ostrich-like behaviour is not a modern vice.
For those unfamiliar with Velikovsky’s monumental work, I would add that he correctly predicted the heated hydrogen atmosphere of Venus while academic “savants” like Carl Sagan jeered and maintained that it would be freezing cold. When Velikovsky was proven right by the Venus space probe, Sagan claimed on TV that we “knew it all along”.
On the positive side, if we should lose our power grid for months to years ( read “irretrievably” – since our society can’t survive months without it) due to a major Solar EMP event, such as those of 1859 or 1921, a possibility suggested by the American Academy of Sciences, my understanding is that we should have about a day’s advance warning, and may be able to save our data by sticking the laptop in the (unplugged) fridge or freezer (and maybe covering the seams with metal tape).
I think holding the Mayans to accuracy of a day, or even a week, for a prediction a thousand years on is a bit unreasonable.