UK Endures Coldest Autumn Since 1993

Guest post by Paul Homewood

Autumn 2012 Mean temperature 1981 - 2010 anomaly

The UK Met Office report that the UK has just had its coldest autumn for nineteen years, leaving 2012 on course to be second coldest year since 1996.

Mean temperature in November was 0.4C below the 1981-2010 average, the third month in a row when temperatures have been well down on normal.

The average temperature for the autumn in the UK was 8.6C, compared to the long term average of 9.5C and the coldest since 1993. It is also the sixth coldest autumn in the last 50 years.

The year as a whole is currently running as the second coldest since 1996, beaten only by the exceptionally cold year of 2010. Temperatures so far in December are 2 degrees below normal, and the Met Office are forecasting that this will continue for the foreseeable future.

One of the features this autumn is just how persistent the cold weather has been. There have not been any exceptionally cold interludes, as, for instance, we saw with the heavy snow in November 2010. Instead, the weather has just been consistently cold.

image

Figure 1

Rainfall

Rainfall totals for the UK during the autumn amounted to 374mm, about 8% above normal, but nothing exceptional. For instance, this total has been beaten six times in the last 30 years.

image

Figure 2

Several areas were affected by floods towards the end of November, particularly in SW England and Wales, and the map below shows rainfall totals were well above normal there during the month.

image

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/

However, as Figures 3 & 4 show, the rainfall totals just experienced in that part of the country, during both November and the autumn as a whole, are actually very commonplace. Indeed, it can be seen just how variable the UK’s weather can be!

image

Figure 3

image

Figure 4

Met Office Autumn Forecast

At the end of August, the Met Office 3-month outlook forecast:-

The balance of probabilities suggests that September will be slightly warmer than average whilst for the period September-October-November UK-averaged temperatures will be near the 1981-2010 climate mean.

and

For UK averaged rainfall the predicted probabilities weakly favour below normal values during September. For the period September/October/November as a whole the forecast favours a slightly higher than usual risk of above average rainfall, whilst the risk of dry conditions remains around climatological levels.

Woefully wrong on temperatures, but a bit better on rainfall. I’ll give them a C+ overall!

All Met Office data is available here.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/

About these ads
This entry was posted in Uncategorized and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

113 Responses to UK Endures Coldest Autumn Since 1993

  1. GlynnMhor says:

    It may well be that the Landscheidt Grand Solar Minimum is showing its strength…

    REPLY: Sorry but it will be named the Eddy minimum, not Landscheidt, if in fact a minimum occurs. This has already been decided by the solar science community. – Anthony

  2. DR says:

    Just as predicted!

  3. Green Sand says:

    “UK Endures Coldest Autumn Since 1993″

    Thanks, I know, I lived through it!

    So did my fruit and veg, hence crap yields

    People talk about drought being an issue, and it is, but my problem is warmth, water I can store accumulate. Too much water and the raised beds fare better.

    No sun, no warmth, no growth, simples.

    If you are a grower you learn about THE limiting factors

  4. AntonyIndia says:

    Folks, careful as for for the true believers now anything is now a proof of CAGW. Too cold, Too wet, Too dry you name it. Next will be too average. The flock has been led to believe this by their Climate mullahs and imams through many sermons and fatwas. Too many sheep even in 2012.

  5. P Wilson says:

    I think it had something to do with the almighty storm in the Arctic some months ago, that broke sea ice, thus allowing heat to escape from the oceans, and thus lowering the temperature differential between the Atlantic and the Arctic, pushing the jetstream south, and opening the UK for a very cold winter, on the back of a wet summer

  6. P Wilson says:

    Yes, here in London, it has been chilly for over a month, and consistently chilly

  7. catweazle666 says:

    Oh, I really can’t be bothered….

    Is it worse than we thought?

  8. P Wilson says:

    WEll, the Met office were predicting in 2007 that the foreseeable future was “hot” and dry summers due to Anthropogenic Global Warming (wow there’s a concept from the past). Now however, they do have more caution.

    They now claim that wet summers “…. could be due to natural variability – a bad run of coincidence, if you will – but climate scientists are conducting ongoing research to see if there are other factors at play.

    Changes in sea surface temperatures due to natural cycles may be playing a part, but there is more research to be done before anyone can establish how big a role they play.”

    which is another way of saying that they simply do not know

  9. Eve says:

    Surprising how well things grow here in the Bahamas. I planed tomatoes and snow pea seeds two weeks ago. Both need stakes now. Tomatoes that I planted in Toronto in April may yield a tomato or 2 before fall. This tomato crop will be ready in January,
    I have listened and know that we will need to grow our own food soon.
    May I add again how easy it is too use less electricity here. I have one computer and a fridge running all day, one light at night. Under $100 a month. I don’t want to do the solar panels thing. We get hurricanes here.

  10. WillR says:

    As I read this I realized that they were on track for “the warmest year ever…” a little bit of number crunching and “Voila! — a new high…

    I did get that right didn’t I?????

  11. RoyFOMR says:

    This summer I got my gas-heating fixed after a couple of years of thermometric discomfort.
    Dunno where Mr Homewood got his data from but, as long as I don’t venture outside ‘Chez OMR’, this UK Autumn has been markedly warmer than for some time!
    Correlation is, I know, not causation but could my experience of recent-warming be due to increasing concentrations of CO2 or is it due to the increasing number of wind-turbines that I see springing up around me?
    It’s all very puzzling!

  12. thingadonta says:

    Well, at least those formerly respected industrial scientists of the 17-20th centuries made it slightly less cold then it would have been, if they didn’t invent industrialisation and C02 use. They deserve a posthumous award for that.

  13. A Crooks says:

    Is there a correlation between low temperature and low rainfall?

  14. kim2ooo says:

    Reblogged this on Climate Ponderings and commented:
    And HuffNPuff Post is already trying to call 2012 the warmest year

  15. Steven Mosher says:

    “Just as predicted!”

    yes, when you have big ice losses in the NP, two of the expected results are colder and more snowy winters in the NH.

  16. Itstheweathercrazyfool says:

    This is raw data, please allow for the team to adjust.

    Anyway, the snow across the UK is global warming snow not real snow.

    Coroners are climate deniers too, they need to be banned from determining “death by hypothermia.”, it proves they are in the pockets of Big Oil.

  17. Werner Brozek says:

    And HuffNPuff Post is already trying to call 2012 the warmest year

    That could possibly be the case for the lower 48 states of the U.S. It is not true globally. If you are interested where the globe stands on 6 data sets so far in 2012, read on.

    2012 in Perspective so far on Six Data Sets

    Note the bolded numbers for each data set where the lower bolded number is the highest anomaly recorded so far in 2012 and the higher one is the all time record so far. There is no comparison.

    With the UAH anomaly for October at 0.33, the average for the first ten months of the year is (-0.13 -0.13 + 0.05 + 0.23 + 0.18 + 0.24 + 0.13 + 0.20 + 0.34 + 0.33)/10 = 0.14. This would rank 9th if it stayed this way. 1998 was the warmest at 0.42. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in April of 1998 when it reached 0.66.

    With the GISS anomaly for October at 0.69, the average for the first ten months of the year is (0.32 + 0.37 + 0.45 + 0.55 + 0.67 + 0.56 + 0.46 + 0.58 + 0.61 + 0.69)/10 = 0.53. This would rank 9th if it stayed this way. 2010 was the warmest at 0.63. The highest ever monthly anomalies were in March of 2002 and January of 2007 when it reached 0.89.

    With the Hadcrut3 anomaly for October at 0.486, the average for the first ten months of the year is (0.217 + 0.193 + 0.305 + 0.481 + 0.475 + 0.477 + 0.448 + 0.512+ 0.515 + 0.486)/10 = 0.411. This would rank 9th if it stayed this way. 1998 was the warmest at 0.548. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in February of 1998 when it reached 0.756. One has to back to the 1940s to find the previous time that a Hadcrut3 record was not beaten in 10 years or less.

    With the sea surface anomaly for October at 0.428, the average for the first ten months of the year is (0.203 + 0.230 + 0.241 + 0.292 + 0.339 + 0.351 + 0.385 + 0.440 + 0.449 + 0.428)/10 = 0.336. This would rank 9th if it stayed this way. 1998 was the warmest at 0.451. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in August of 1998 when it reached 0.555.

    With the RSS anomaly for November at 0.195, the average for the first eleven months of the year is (-0.060 -0.123 + 0.071 + 0.330 + 0.231 + 0.337 + 0.290 + 0.255 + 0.383 + 0.294 + 0.195)/11 = 0.200. This would rank 11th if it stayed this way. 1998 was the warmest at 0.55. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in April of 1998 when it reached 0.857.

    With the Hadcrut4 anomaly for October at 0.518, the average for the first ten months of the year is (0.288 + 0.209 + 0.339 + 0.526 + 0.531 + 0.501 + 0.469 + 0.529 + 0.516 + 0.518)/10 = 0.443. This would rank 9th if it stayed this way. 2010 was the warmest at 0.54. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in January of 2007 when it reached 0.818. The 2011 anomaly at 0.399 puts 2011 in 12th place and the 2008 anomaly of 0.383 puts 2008 in 14th place.

    On all six of the above data sets, a record is out of reach.

  18. SAMURAI says:

    Hey! I thought that Dr. David Viner of the CRU said in 2000 that by 2002 winter snows in the UK would virtually disappear and that, “children growing up in the UK wouldn’t even know what snow is.”

    Another Warmunista prediction bites the dust….

    How long is this stupid hoax/fraud going to continue?????

  19. pat says:

    remember the Met Office hasn’t got any better since the Autumn:

    5 Dec: Daily Mail: More traffic chaos on its way as forecasters predict up to six inches of snow and freezing conditions overnight
    Forecasters admitted snow across the South had taken them a little by surprise…
    Experts wrongly said yesterday that London and the South East would be ‘cold and dry’ with ‘scattered showers – some wintry’ in the South West…
    They only predicted that snow would settle in the North, with four inches on high ground and just two inches remaining lower down by morning.
    Instead, a band of snow wreaked havoc as it moved down across the south of England, with the unprepared home counties awaking to wintry scenes and travel chaos…
    Met Office spokesman Mark Wilson admitted today that forecasters had not expected the extreme weather.
    He said: ‘The snow has been heavier than we first thought and it has brought the snow to lower levels. It was in the forecast, but the actual snow that fell was to lower levels than we had earlier forecast.
    ***’This is in the nature of forecasting. It is difficult. The issue of snow was mentioned in the forecast, but on higher ground.’…
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2243251/UK-weather-More-traffic-chaos-way-forecasters-predict-inches-snow-freezing-conditions-overnight.html

    yes, forecasting 100 years ahead must be well nigh impossible.

  20. E.M.Smith says:

    That top chart sure looks like more or less trendless flat from about 1930 to now, but with a couple of warm years in the ‘oughties’ (no doubt helped by a bit of ‘adjusting’)…

    Other than the USA (and only ‘east of the Rockes at that) it seems much of the rest of the world is having a bit of cold. Golly… almost like it’s all natural and the weather changes…

  21. What-Was-That-Oh-A-Delegate-From-Doha-On-The-Slab! says:

    [snip . . incoherence leads to content free posts.. .mod]

  22. Pingo says:

    The data just needs adjusting. Move along…

  23. SandyInLimousin says:

    “Just as predicted!”
    Presumably these predictions started about 2008 just after the first big Artic ice melt and when the UK started getting normal winters again?

  24. Jimbo says:

    So much for the UK to expect to have a Mediterranean style climate with droughts becoming more common. Mother Nature just threw a dampener on that one – for now at least.

    The Scottish ski industry is doomed and snowfalls are now just a thing of the past. ;)

    “SNOWSPORTS fans should have a choice of all five of Scotland’s ski centres this weekend for the first time in the winter season.”
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/scottish-news/top-stories/scotland-s-five-ski-centres-all-open-for-first-time-this-winter-1-2680345

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/dec/07/snow-freezing-winds-expected-uk
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/dec/05/uk-weather-snow-transport-disruptions-live-blog

  25. Fear not – “Forecasters Predict More Mild Winter for Europe”

    Reuters, Nov 09, 2012

    FRANKFURT – European weather in the coming winter now looks more likely to be mild than in previous studies, German meteorologist Georg Mueller said in a monthly report.

    “The latest runs are generally in favor of a milder than normal winter, especially over northern Europe,” wrote Mueller, who regularly monitors energy weather on behalf of Point Carbon, a Thomson Reuters company.

    “Especially January and February could get quite wet, windy and mild over Scandinavia and parts of northern Central Europe,” he added, concluding that no major cold episodes were likely. December should be the coolest month, he said.

    Another energy specialist, Weather Services International (WSI) last month also said it expected mild conditions in western Europe between November and January. WSI forecasters said the likelihood of a “blocking pattern” over the North Atlantic is relatively low this winter, suggesting that Arctic air will not be forced south into Europe on a regular basis.

    …. no need to worry then – they’ve got the measure of it obviously.

  26. J Martin says:

    REPLY: Sorry but it will be named the Eddy minimum, not Landscheidt, if in fact a minimum occurs. This has already been decided by the solar science community. – Anthony

    From Wikepedia:

    There was an online petition underway, organized by Anthony Watts, to be submitted to the Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society in June 2009, in Boulder, Colorado by solar astronomer Leif Svalgaard

    Was this an essentially US vote for a US candidate ? An attempt to bypass and pre-empt the rest of the World from having a voice or a say in any decision.

    Was this the establishment closing ranks and preventing an outsider, Landscheidt, from getting the recognition he deserves ?

    We had a poll, here:
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/22/wuwt-poll-what-should-we-call-the-current-solar-minimum/
    “Svalgaard Minimum” won with 1220 votes, 49%. Leif has decided to present “The Eddy Minimum” at the next conference, even though his name was the clear winner. Thus I think we should honor and support his request. – Anthony

    Did Leif Svalgaard predict the timing and extent of the minimum we now seem to entering ?
    I believe he did not, and neither did Eddy.

    Whilst Eddy was undoubtedly a widely influential and respected solar scientist he did not actually predict the timing or strength of the forthcoming minimum which Landscheidt did back in 1983.

    From Wikipedia :

    While Eddy did not predict the next significant solar minimum he did identify that we are living by the light of a variable star and it is for this reason it is said that the next significant solar minimum should be named in his honor.

    . Something Kepler speculated nearly 400 years earlier.

    It was Landscheidt’s extraordinary achievement and so far accurate prediction of the forthcoming minimum rather than Eddy’s modern rediscovery (Kepler) that the sun is a variable star, which in my view means that the minimum we seem to now be entering should properly be named in Landscheidt’s honour.

    REPLY: But, it won’t be. Sorry. – Anthony

  27. Jimbo says:

    Steven Mosher says:
    December 7, 2012 at 8:35 pm

    “Just as predicted!”

    yes, when you have big ice losses in the NP, two of the expected results are colder and more snowy winters in the NH.

    Are you saying there was big ice losses in the North Pole in the 1960s and early 1970s? ;-) You can’t have it both ways for the North Pole unprecedented lows old bean.

  28. Stacey says:

    The whole of the world is now in danger of entering a new ice said Professor Mad fellow and confidant of Em Mann, the celebrity planet saver who recently married Minnie Mouse.
    The cause of this impending disaster is global warming, caused by rebarbative elephants breaking wind in the Sahara desert.
    Professor Mad, recently awarded a Nobel prize for his random theory on Lego brick said the science is settled.

  29. Otter says:

    Steven Mosher says:

    yes, when you have big ice losses in the NP, two of the expected results are colder and more snowy winters in the NH.

    Morning, Steve!
    Can you explain to me, then, why the mild winter of last year, was also the result of big ice losses in the NP? Or why I ‘enjoyed’ deep snows and very cold winters in the late 70s in college, when NP ice was at an ‘all time’ high?

  30. DirkH says:

    Steven Mosher says:
    December 7, 2012 at 8:35 pm
    ““Just as predicted!”
    yes, when you have big ice losses in the NP, two of the expected results are colder and more snowy winters in the NH.”

    I’d like to point out that the winters 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 were extremely snow rich here in Germany WITHOUT big ice losses in the Arctic; those were the two winters following the double La Nina.

    Is this also expected in the world of warmist science, Steven?

    If so, under which circumstances can we expect NO snow? I can give you my REALIST answer, shaped by real world experience: in warming decades like the 80ies and 90ies.

    What we have now are winters like in the 70ies, no matter what your XBox says.

  31. vukcevic says:

    Here you can compare England’s seasonal temperatures since 1660. Autumn’s temp’s are shown in brown, the right hand side scale.
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET-D.htm

  32. zootcadillac says:

    I don’t have the data to hand but I believe that the technical term for the current weather is “bloody freezing” and that brass monkeys might want to be careful of losing their wedding tackle.

    Anyway. I’m off out with 10 other guys to compete in a day of ultra prix outdoor kart racing. I wonder if they can fit snow chains to those things…..?

  33. Mark says:

    Oh, there’s definitely some adjustments happening.

    Have been keeping a spreadsheet of monthly Met Office data for Scotland for years – since I started to get interested in the whole topic. That enabled me to identify that, a few years ago (approx 2009), there was a mysterious amendment to the historic record.

    ALL past years were dropped by, on average, a few hundredths of a degree – 81 years at -0.03 and 9 at -0.04 out of a 104 year data set. In comparison, the 3 years since then have been increased by .01, .02 and .08 degrees since being originally published. Given the tenths of a degree we talk about on a regular basis, this isn’t insignificant.

  34. Ruth Dixon says:

    “Bananas grow in National Trust garden of the future”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/gardening/7505950/Bananas-grow-in-National-Trust-garden-of-the-future.html

    In 2010 the National Trust commissioned three paintings on the basis of Met Office predictions:

    “The Met Office has warned that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow, global temperatures could rise by 2C (3.6F) rise in temperatures, making southern England’s climate similar to south-west France, while a 4C (7.2F) rise could expose gardens to conditions more like south-west Portugal.

    Hope they didn’t spend too much of their members’ fees on these…

  35. Joe Public says:

    If the Met Office correctly used its resources to predict weather rather than construct models to try to predict climate, we’d all be better off.

    Is the UK’s Met Office fit for purpose?

  36. Steven Mosher says:
    December 7, 2012 at 8:35 pm
    ““Just as predicted!”
    yes, when you have big ice losses in the NP, two of the expected results are colder and more snowy winters in the NH.”

    Morning, Steve!

    Is that also the reason why we no longer get heatwaves in the summer over here?

    http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/11/24/whatever-happened-to-our-heatwaves/

  37. cui bono says:

    Brrr. The alarmists said a few years ago that the traditional English garden of lawn and temperate scrubs would soon die off, and we should replace everything with Spanish and Moroccan heat-resistant and drought-resistant flora. Pah! At least I can look out of the window and see a unkempt lawn rather than dead palms.

    And the lawn is partly covered with funny fluffy white stuff. I keep asking kids what it is but they don’t know. /s

    But according to Piers “Moron” Morgan at the end of the Nye-Morano ‘debate’, the only temperature that matters is the one in New York, and that’s above normal, therefore global warming is real. ‘Pah!’ again.

  38. David L says:

    Wait, there’s record cold in England but the US broke over 600 high temp records around the country on one day last week. So ABC World News ran a story implying global warming. Of course the focus was on the warm US and the melting Arctic. They neglected to mention 95% of Canada covered in snow, and the cold in England.

    Ii would think, though, that chilly England is a result of globule warming.

  39. David L says:

    SAMURAI says:
    December 7, 2012 at 9:34 pm
    “…How long is this stupid hoax/fraud going to continue?????”

    As long as there are humans that stand to gain financially.

  40. Jimbo says:

    Steven Mosher says:
    December 7, 2012 at 8:35 pm
    ““Just as predicted!”
    yes, when you have big ice losses in the NP, two of the expected results are colder and more snowy winters in the NH.”

    Do you have any idea what the “big ice losses” were like in the Arctic ocean in 1962????? Same for 1739/40, 1947, 1940 and 1979 (record ice extent in the Arctic in 1979.)

    In 1947 snow fell every day between January 22nd to March 17th, somewhere in the UK. The Arctic must have been in a terrible state according to CAGW’s get out of jail free card.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk/8446942.stm
    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=famous-winters;sess=
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/gallery/2010/dec/15/weather-big-freeze-1962-pictures
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/jan/05/coldest-winters-britain-snow

  41. Sam the First says:

    As a racing fan I’m always aware when it’s particularly cold because of the numbers of cancelled meetings. This last week we’ve not only lost several jump meetings to frozen tracks, but one of the three ‘all weather’ courses has had to shut due to frozen kickback and ice balling in the horses’ hooves. that’s very rare – and unprecedented so early in the year so far as I remember

  42. Jimbo says:

    LOL!

    BBC – 14 June, 2005
    Climate may turn UK Mediterranean
    …………………….
    Olive groves, vines and sunflower fields could become hallmarks of the landscape in South-East England as global warming changes conditions.

    Experts also say the English country garden is unlikely to survive in the South East in its present form.

    Rolling lawns and herbaceous borders may be ousted by palms and eucalyptus.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/4091068.stm

    By the way Warmies, our Gavin Schmidt said we are to expect milder winters as a result of the greenhouse effect. Mosher says expect colder winters as the Arctic warms due to the greenhouse effect. This is called disruptive climate now I gather. LOL.

    Expect warmer winters.
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/20905

    Expect colder winters.
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013568

    No matter what happens CAGW is entirely consistently inconsistent.

  43. Mervyn says:

    The following article is a testament to the stupidity of so called expert climate change scientists;

    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

    This article will forever haunt Dr David Viner. And it should be a lesson to others not to arrogantly double guess what Mother Nature will do.

  44. After 20 years of global warming as adjusted by HadCru, GISS & NOAA (1977-96, incl), what will these corrupt gangs say when & if there be no warming or indeed cooling during the following 20 years (1997-2016, incl), et seq, as seems likely in reality if not in their cooked books? Or will they simply further adjust their secret AlGore-ithms to Mann-ufacture spurious warming?

    The climate is doing what it always does, changing back & forth.

  45. piers.d.s says:

    You see, all we had to do was pay a few billion pounds to Tuvalu to compensate them for our CO2 emissions, and AGW problem goes away.
    Government policy proved correct – hurrah!

  46. mwhite says:

    “Met Office 2012 annual global temperature forecast”

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2011/2012-global-temperature-forecast

    “4 January 2012 – 2012 is expected to be around 0.48 °C warmer than the long-term (1961-1990) global average of 14.0 °C, with a predicted likely range of between 0.34 °C and 0.62 °C, according to the Met Office annual global temperature forecast.”

  47. Chris Wright says:

    In 2000 a Met Office scientist named Viner famously wrote that snow was becoming a thing of the past. Obviously the Met Office haven’t a clue. They are completely blinded by their obsession with CO2.
    Now they have admitted that global warming is slowing down. But they still have a serious credibility and integrity gap. In effect they’re describing a parked car as a car that’s slowing down.
    They’re a complete disgrace.
    Chris

  48. Silver Ralph says:

    .
    Re: UK Flooding.

    Its not the rain that is the problem, but immigration. Overpopulation in the UK means that more and more housing estates are being built on flood plains.

    The clue to the flooding problem lies in the name.

    So then they dyke and levy the housing estates, to prevent flooding, and of course the floods then have nowhere to expand into. So the floods get deeper and faster, as the water piles up and cannot dissipate onto the flood plains.

    Then, traditional towns and cities, which were purpously built above the flood plains, get flooded with the artificially deepened waters. So the Greens cry, ‘look, we have never had floods so bad as to flood Tewksbury’. Yes, well if you had not corralled the water and locked it out of its flood plains, there wouldn’t be a problem, would there.

    And still Greenpeace will not campaign on population issues, as if an ever expanding population will have absolutely no effect on the environment. Numbskulls that they are.

  49. Kev-in-Uk says:

    I think Mr Mosher has fallen into the ‘simple explanation’ warmist mantra type syndrome.
    What a silly statement/proclamation Steve! I don’t believe you can back that up with any appropriate data – even discounting you using/implying the ‘whole’ of the NH is affected by NP ice melt!
    in the UK, most of our weather is dependent on the gulf stream and south westerlies! so unless NP ice melt significantly affects the gulf stream or imposes ‘blocking highs’ over northern europe – I don’t see how it can affect us very much at all.

  50. Stephen Richards says:

    mwhite says:
    December 8, 2012 at 4:40 am
    “Met Office 2012 annual global temperature forecast”
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2011/2012-global-temperature-forecast
    4 January 2012 – 2012 is expected to be around 0.48 °C warmer than the long-term (1961-1990) global average of 14.0 °C, with a predicted likely range of between 0.34 °C and 0.62 °C, according to the Met Office annual global temperature forecast.”

    I suppose that’snot a bad guess. You know put out a range of 95% wide, plumb for the middle and declare that as your forecast.

    OK, next year I predict that the nefarious global average temp anomoly in Hadcru4 will 0.29 to 0.6°C and expect it to be 0.445°C +/- 0.155.

    There, spot on and all with a 4 function calculator.

  51. Kev-in-Uk says:

    re anything from the UK MetOffice – it is a sad state of affairs that the warmista have taken over that particular asylum. They are still beating the AGW drum, and continue to push tha GW meme whenever and wherever possible. It is nothing more than a political voice now in respect of AGW – and should be completely ignored! I wouldn’t trust anything they produce any more than I would trust something signed by Mann or Jones!

  52. Dr. Lurtz says:

    Isn’t it about time for the Climate Scientists to explain why Solar UV affects the Earth’s Climate??
    Between a Solar Max. and Min. there is hardly a change in TSI, but a large change in UV. Yet, the Earth’s temperature as recorded for centuries varies +-0.1C. Why?

    A theory would be that the UV affects the Upper Atmosphere Ozone layer. More UV, thicker Ozone layer, better insulation, which leads to warmer temperatures. The opposite is also proposed.

    As we enter into the Eddy Minimum, how about having a verified theory for changing temperatures and virtually constant TSI !!!

  53. herkimer says:

    If the ENSO sign remains neutral during the upcoming winter , the odds are that UK will also have colder than average winter . During the past 50 years , when Enso sign has been neutral , the winters have been below normal [3.7C] about 65% of the time . The Northern Hemisphere winter temperature anomalies have been dropping slightly since 1998. European winter temperatures have been flat for 20 years since 1990 but show declines in the post 2006 period.

  54. roger says:

    If the BBC can’t eliminate snow one way, they will eliminate it another.
    It seems the word “snow” can no longer be tolerated in left leaning establishments and is now to be described as “wintryness” in both forecasts and discussion.
    They seem to be attempting the elimination of “snow” from the Oxford English Dictionary by disuse, thereby religating it to a footnote reference as an archaic rarely used word from the C20th.
    This may go some way to explain the lack of preparedness in the SE UK when the SNOW fell earlier this week in that area.
    The BBC is no longer a great institution, but it almost certainly should be put in one.

  55. tonyb says:

    Mosh said

    “yes, when you have big ice losses in the NP, two of the expected results are colder and more snowy winters in the NH.”

    Credible non modelled reference please? I’ve been back 1000 years with physical observations as far as I’m able and no such correlation exists on a consistent basis. I can’t see any correlation between the Alpine glacial records either. Prove your assertion

    tonyb

  56. herkimer says:

    I might add that past Enso neutral winters have been even worse for Europe as a whole . About 75% of Enso neutral winters have been colder than normal . This was especially evident during their last cooler period 1962-1987. when10 out 10 Enso neutral winters were colder than normal. For those who expect European winters to warm as IPCC and EEA do , there will be a lot explaining to do over the next 20-30 years as the cooler cycle begins

  57. tonyb says:

    Ruth Dixon

    Here are the real world Central England temperatures since 1772.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/

    The coldest autumn in years reported In Pauls excellent article is just part of a general decline in our temperatures over the last ten years. My garden in the South West has lost many of the succulents that used to flourish here and the last two years I havent even been able to grow tomatoes. If you ever listen to Farming Today it is studded with farmers abandoning exotic crops.

    My concern is that we are so focused on Plan A for excessive warming that we havent got a plan B to cover other more likely contingencies

    tonyb

  58. tgmccoy says:

    Thank you Jimbo for that British railroading flashback! Scratch me and I bleed Union Pacific
    yellow. One thing Britain did was not rush headlong into diesels . UP had a few Challengers and
    Northern in the west when I was young. Nothing like a long whistle on cold morning.
    When SP’s 4449 showed up in Eugene OR. back in th elate 80′s wife and i took a young friend to see it. Here was that big brute sitting there and quietly chuffing on a cold winter’s day. She looked at it and said:” Is it alive!?” I said “yes…”
    Remember winters like that in NE Oregon …..
    Some quite recent..

  59. John M says:

    The Met overestimating warming.

    Harumph.

    They were so consistent and predictable about it, I’ve stopped following.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/09/06/uks-met-office-blows-another-summer-forecast/#comment-37086

  60. Silver Ralph says:

    roger says: December 8, 2012 at 7:39 am
    If the BBC can’t eliminate snow one way, they will eliminate it another. It seems the word “snow” can no longer be tolerated in left leaning establishments and is now to be described as “wintryness” in both forecasts and discussion. They seem to be attempting the elimination of “snow” from the Oxford English Dictionary by disuse, thereby religating it to a footnote reference as an archaic rarely used word from the C20th.

    ________________________________________

    The BBC is doing this because of the great leftist Global Warming claim that : “snow will be a thing of the past”.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

    How can Global Warming predict no snow, and then we get more snow that ever since 1963? Tricky one, eh? The BBC answer is to delete ‘snow’ from the English lexicon. This is another version of Orwell’s Doublespeak – but this is Deletespeak.

    .

  61. Billy Liar says:

    Steven Mosher says:
    December 7, 2012 at 8:35 pm

    yes, when you have big ice losses in the NP, two of the expected results are colder and more snowy winters in the NH.

    So during the Little Ice Age there was less Arctic ice than there is now? Where are the papers expounding this remarkable result of CAGW theory?

    I never knew it was so simple!

  62. Silver Ralph says:

    vukcevic says: December 8, 2012 at 2:00 am
    Here you can compare England’s seasonal temperatures since 1660. Autumn’s temp’s are shown in brown, the right hand side scale.
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET-D.htm
    ______________________________________

    My dear Vuk, oh he of the wiggly graphs and no explanations – you seem to have autumn temperatures colder than winter temperatures. Can you check your graph again.

    .

  63. John M says:

    Silver Ralph

    “…autumn temperatures colder than winter…”

    Different axes. It is indeed confusing though.

  64. herkimer says:

    TONYB
    Mosh said
    “yes, when you have big ice losses in the NP, two of the expected results are colder and more snowy winters in the NH.”
    I agree with your comments re Mosh quote . We had cold winters and lots of snow in the Northern Hemisphere prior to the last 30 years when there was plenty of Arctic ice. So cold winters and lots of snow in NH have many other causes as well. This comment of Mosh may stem from a study by JudahL Cohen et al covering only 1990-2010 . A study looking back 100 years may not support the claim of Mosh and Cohen

  65. Roger Longstaff says:

    Anybody who lives in the UK, and is as fed up with this CAGW nonsense as I am, can sign the new e-petition to repeal the Climate Change Act:

    http://epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions/42784

  66. Richard Bell says:

    1963… Watch and enjoy ….. look forward to what is to come …. !!!

  67. Willis Eschenbach says:

    GlynnMhor says:
    December 7, 2012 at 6:00 pm

    It may well be that the Landscheidt Grand Solar Minimum is showing its strength…

    REPLY: Sorry but it will be named the Eddy minimum, not Landscheidt, if in fact a minimum occurs. This has already been decided by the solar science community. – Anthony

    Anthony, I know that you and Leif spearheaded a drive to officially name the next solar grand minimum after Eddy instead of naming it after Ted Landscheidt, and that you submitted a petition to the Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society to that effect … but I can’t find anywhere that anyone has reported that the AAS actually acted on your petition. Do you have a cite? Google gives me nothing.

    A bit of history. I call the predicted grand minimum peaking in 2030 the “Landscheidt Minimum” out of established habit, because that’s what it has been called by various people discussing it during the time since Ted Landscheidt predicted it in 1989 (although not by Landscheidt himself).

    Landscheidt predicted a weakening of the solar cycles starting after 1990, and hitting a minimum around 2030. He’s definitely been right so far about weakening cycles, but there’s a ways to go yet.

    One of the things that I greatly admired about Ted was that he was willing to publicly make falsifiable predictions, the most scientific of habits. I was sorry when Ted died because he would never find out if his prediction was right about the minimum. In any event, the history is that I and others have been calling that predicted grand minimum the Landscheidt Minimum for quite a while.

    I’m honestly sorry to say that your and Leif’s petition, successful or not, will not change what I call the predicted minimum. I thought that it was incorrect of you and Leif to try to predetermine the name, rather than letting it emerge spontaneously as such names have in the past. The predicted grand minimum of 2030 has been called the Landscheidt Minimum for quite a while now by a variety of people, particularly since Ted’s death … what inspired you to try to change an existing name?

    If his prediction comes to pass, Landsheidt absolutely deserves the honor of the name. What Eddy did was identify a minimum in the distant past, a most excellent feat of scientific imagination to be sure. We don’t know yet, but it seems possible that Landschiedt was able to predict a grand minimum forty years in the future … surely predicting a grand minimum four decades in the future would be more deserving of recognition than identifying a grand minimum in the past?

    As a result, your attempt to pre-emptively rally public support to name such a possible minimum after Eddy, while I am sure it was occasioned by the best of motives, seemed very premature to me. I’m not saying Eddy doesn’t deserve respect, he absolutely does. I’m saying wrong way, wrong place, wrong time.

    If the minimum doesn’t happen when Ted predicted, it will be called by whatever the people of 2050 (or whenever it does happen) want to call it, and they may not want to name it after Eddy. There may be a new scientific star, someone whose revolutionary solar theory predicted the 2050 grand minimum in 2030. By your petition, you are trying to impose your will on the people of say 2050 regarding what they should call their grand minimum … seems a bit over-reaching to me, but what do I know?

    … but for me (and yes, I realize that this is a personal opinion) if the next solar grand minimum does happen when Ted predicted it would happen, it should be named for him and no one else. And if it does occur, it will always be the Landscheidt Minimum for me, with no disrespect meant to Eddy, Leif, or yourself.

    In friendship,

    w.

    PS—What if a minimum doesn’t occur when Landscheidt predicted? Well, in that case I suspect I’ll call it the “Landscheidt Famous Failed Minimum” …

    PPS—Interesting comment by Eddy himself:

    EDDY: And, you know, the temptation was to think that it [the Maunder Minimum] might someday be called the “Eddy Minimum”: that is, to call it nothing in the hope that someone else would do that. But being from Nebraska, I could never do anything like that. I also knew I wasn’t the first to find it, and it wasn’t really mine. I think I did quite a bit for Maunder with that name. Particularly because he also got the idea from somebody else. He got it from Sporer who was a German astronomer. So, among the shots I took after publishing the paper were some from Germany that said, “You know, you really named it after the wrong person.” Which I knew very well.

    He was a good guy indeed, Anthony, and I understand the desire of Leif and yourself to recognize his achievements.

    PPS—A decade or so ago I tried quite hard to understand what Ted Landscheidt was doing, including corresponding with him to try to clear up obscure points in his explanations (of which there were many). I even wrote an entire Excel spreadsheet to do the barycentric calculations, so I could investigate the barycentric oscillations of the sun. Despite great effort, I never succeeded in understanding his system.

    However, Ted was a true scientist who was willing to make predictions that either would or would not come true. So whether or not I understood his methods, I have to respect that about him.

    Anthony, I completely understand your great reluctance to have Ted Landscheidt’s ideas discussed on WUWT. When his name comes up, the threads tend to slope off pretty quickly into cyclomania of the worst kind, the kind that finds tons of correlations but makes no predictions of any kind. So I actively support your desire to keep discussion of Ted’s methods off of WUWT … particularly since no one seems to understand his ideas much better than I do, which is very poorly, and the signal to noise ratio tends to asymptotically approach zero pretty quickly.

    But I object to your attempt to change the natural order of naming things by trying to prevent Ted’s name from remaining on the Landscheidt Minimum. It could easily be mistaken for an attempt to impose your blog standards and your dislike of Landscheidt on the rest of the planet. Let me suggest in friendship that you let it go, let it be, let the name come to fruition in the fullness of time, whatever that name may be.

    For me, it’s bozo simple.

    If Landscheidt was wrong, there won’t be a grand minimum to name in 2030, and this will all be moot.

    And if he was right, he most certainly deserves to have the 2030 grand minimum named after him.

  68. Willis Eschenbach says:

    Steven Mosher says:
    December 7, 2012 at 8:35 pm

    “Just as predicted!”

    yes, when you have big ice losses in the NP, two of the expected results are colder and more snowy winters in the NH.

    Cite for colder winters being the “expected result” of less arctic ice? I’ve run the numbers and I find no such effect, although I find a mild increase in snow in such conditions. I’m not saying there is no such evidence … I’m just saying you are a fool to make the claim without providing a scrap of backup.

    Seriously, Steven, your drive-by posting style is bringing you lower and lower in my estimation. You are a brilliant man—act like it. You know that such claims as yours will bring only derision unless they are accompanied by actual facts, you know, cites and data and statistics.

    Now, perhaps you like to have folks pointing and laughing at you … in which case, contrary to my assumptions and experience, you are a troll doing this for the lulz. But I don’t think that’s the case.

    SO … if you don’t want to have folks snicker and go “Oh, yeah, that idiot” when your name is mentioned, join the party and provide some meat to go with the unhinged aerogel of your posts.

    w.

  69. Sean says:

    Oh my god, man is causing global cooling with all his windmills…The sky is falling. We had better put a tax on green activism. Good thing, that as Greenpeace says, we know where they live and work…it will make rounding them up and shipping them off to climate cult prisons all the easier. (sarc off)

  70. It doesn't add up... says:

    The Wayback Machine still appear not to have managed to fix their server for this file:

    http://www.ibt.org.uk/all_documents/dialogue/Real%20World%20Brainstorm%20Sep%202007%20background.pdf

    Remember, that’s the one that reveals the BBC’s little secret. How long does it take to fix a server? Does the BBC employ hack(er)s?

  71. DirkH says:

    Willis Eschenbach says:
    December 8, 2012 at 9:49 am
    “Cite for colder winters being the “expected result” of less arctic ice? I’ve run the numbers and I find no such effect, although I find a mild increase in snow in such conditions. ”

    Some Russian working at the PIK has a paper “predicting” this. (One of the many protective hypothesis that shield the body of the HMS Warmism)

    Sorry, didn’t write down the name. His “post-prediction” cam after the second of two snow rich winters in germany in 2011 IIRC.

  72. Kev-in-Uk says:

    John M says:
    December 8, 2012 at 8:21 am

    I just compared that posts data to the current posted on the metoffice website
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2012/global-temperatures-2012
    scroll down to see previous years.
    year forecast actual Hadcrut4 !!!

    1999 …….0.38 …………0.33 …………..No Hadcrut4 0.30+-0.09
    2000……..0.41………0.32-0.33………..No 0.29+-0.09
    2001……..0.47………0.42-0.44………No(2nd) 0.43+-0.09
    2002……..0.47………….0.49………….No(2nd) 0.49+-0.09
    2003……..0.55………….0.45……………Yes 0.50+-0.09
    2004……..0.50………….0.44………….No(2nd) 0.44+-0.09
    2005……..0.51………….0.48………….No(2nd) 0.53+-0.09
    2006…0.45(0.37?)…….0.42…………….No 0.49+-0.09
    2007……..0.54………….0.40……………Yes 0.48+-0.09
    2008……..0.37………….0.28…………….No 0.49+-0.09

    I am curious as to the differences!! But it sure looks as if Hadcrut4 is upping the later values!

  73. Stephen Wilde says:

    “Isn’t it about time for the Climate Scientists to explain why Solar UV affects the Earth’s Climate??”

    Your wish is my command:

    http://climaterealists.com/attachments/ftp/How%20The%20Sun%20Could%20Control%20Earths%20Temperature.pdf

  74. Sparks says:

    If we are entering a new solar minimum predicted by Ted Landscheidt we should obviously be calling it Landscheidt solar minimum, I wouldn’t have any objections if it were called The Landscheidt Eddy solar minimum, TBH I have been under the impression that the coming solar minimum if it occurs will be named Landscheidt solar minimum after the person who predicted it.

  75. John M says:

    Kev-in-UK

    Yes, those who own the field can always move the goals :).

  76. Dan B says:

    Willis Eschenbach says:
    P.S. ……
    P.P.S …….
    P.P.P.S. ……..
    Ok Willis, put down the eggnog and back away from the computer ;>

  77. herkimer says:

    I think a day of reckoning is soon coming for the Met Office decadal forecast. They most recently predicted the global average temperature anomaly is to go to 0.8C by 2020 with an upper range of about 1.0C and lower range of about 0.6C as shown on their decadal graph shown in their forecast. That is an average rise of 0.4 C in the remaining 8 years when the anomaly has been basically flat since 1998.

    They say “ From 2017 to 2021, the global temperature is forecast to rise further to between 0.54 and 0.97C with the most likely values of about 0.76 above average “

    Their annual forecasts seem to have been high the last 13 years. The prediction for 2011 was 0.44C and the actual was 0.340C. The forecast for 2012 is 0.48 C. The actual is 0.411 to the end of October

    I think their numbers have been consistently high and continue to be suspect but they put them out despite the past poor record of accuracy in my opinion .

  78. Robuk says:

    The Thames froze over many times in the 15th – 19th centuries due to the little ice age. It is likely that during that period the Thames froze over most years to a certain degree, especially outside of London and further North. Some years, such as 1683/4, the ice was up to 18” thick.

    When the ice was thick enough, frost fairs took place. Years when the ice was thick enough for this to occur were: 1408, 1435, 1506, 1514, 1537, 1565, 1595, 1608, 1621, 1635, 1649, 1655, 1663, 1666, 1677, 1684, 1695, 1709, 1716, 1740, (1768), 1776, (1785), 1788, 1795, and 1814, which was the last frost fair.

    Although the Thames may have frozen slightly since then, with rising global temperatures, the demolishion of London Bridge and the emabankment of the river, it is unlikely it ever happened to any great degree and certainly not in the 20/21st centuries.

    http://i446.photobucket.com/albums/qq187/bobclive/Chance-of-a-lifetime-cyclingonthethames.jpg

    http://www.thamesweb.co.uk/windsor/windsorhistory/freeze63.html

    If you want some historical floods try these,

    http://www.thamesweb.co.uk/windsor/windsorhistory/floods1875.html

    It appears it is just weather.

  79. herkimer says:

    dirkh
    Are you referring to this?
    There is a paper in AGU called A LINK BETWEEN REDUCED BARENTS -KARA SEA ICE AND COLD WINTER EXTREMES OVER NORTHERN CONTINENTS by V.Petoukhov and V.Semenov

  80. Sparks says:

    Robuk says:
    December 8, 2012 at 11:35 am

    When the Thames froze over in the past, wasn’t it a lot wider, shallower and slower moving? And now it’s built up, narrower, deeper and faster moving.

  81. Jimbo says:

    Mosher,
    The River Thames froze over many times between the 15th – 19th centuries. Is it safe to say the Arctic sea ice extent was lower than it is today?

    The winter of 1978–79 was harsh, cold and snowy in the UK. According to the satellite record it certainly is NOT safe to say that the Arctic sea ice extent was lower than it is today as it was at its maximum extent.

  82. Dirk H

    There’s also a study by Jennifer Francis of Rutgers.

    She talks of a meridional jetflow which causes blocking highs and lows, which bring cold air down from the Arctic (but also take warm air up to the Arctic!) She describes it as follows

    “The jet stream is clearly weaker,. That means weather systems, be it rain or dry conditions, are slow to move on and last longer. Ultimately this can result in “blocking” events, such as the conditions that produced the terrible heatwave in western Russia during the summer of 2010, “

    However HH Lamb found the same pattern of meridional jetflow in the 1960′s when the Arctic was getting colder.

    He had this to say about the effect of a colder Arctic:-

    “changes over middle latitudes, where the most significant feature has been the very awkward type of variability from year to year, associated with the behaviour of blocking systems and meridional circulation patterns.” which led to “the extremes of cold and warmth, drought and flood associated with the occurrences of blocking in middle latitudes.”

    https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/09/28/guardian-have-all-bases-covered/

    And of course the record cold winter of 1963 in the UK was caused by just such a blocking high to the North East.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/education/teens/case-studies/severe-winters

  83. Kev-in-Uk says:

    Paul Homewood says:
    December 8, 2012 at 12:05 pm
    as I said in my gentle retort to Mosher above – the UK weather is dominated by southwesterly winds,the gulf stream and the occasional blocking high- and that is essentially our weather in a nutshell! (perhaps he doesn’t realise the size of the UK and its lattitude?) – I fail to see how any of these can be significantly affected (i.e. for the longer term) by an extreme arctic melt.

  84. pat says:

    7 Dec: Daily Mail: Freezing Britain: Siberian front brings ice, snow and -16C temperatures (but at least these skiers are enjoying themselves)
    Temperatures expected to dip from Sunday with frozen conditions bringing chaos to the roads later in the week
    Commuters pictured battling through heavy snow in Leeds, Newcastle and Lincolnshire
    AA warn drivers to be prepared for treacherous conditions and advise grit is ineffective below -9C
    Icy gusts from the east will bring a wind chill factor of -16C next week, according to Met Office forecasters
    Follows a week of transport chaos with airports closing and dramatic car crashes putting police officers and a boy of 11 into hospital…
    Forecasters report a current breakdown in high-altitude westerly winds – known as ‘sudden stratospheric warming’ – which can allow easterly winds from as far away as Siberia to chill Britain and gave us the coldest night of the year on Wednesday.
    The pattern caused the bitter 2009-10 winter, the coldest for 31 years…
    Heavy snowfall across Holland, Belgium and northern France has seen road and flight links affected. Airports in the UK were reporting a knock-on effect from the disruption, with KLM and Air France cancelling flights to Paris and Amsterdam.
    A spokesperson for Eurostar told MailOnline Travel that passengers heading into Europe on the cross-Channel rail service today should expect ‘minor delays of 10-15 minutes due to speed restrictions caused by bad weather in Northern France’.
    Heavy snowfall in Belgium has seen the cancellation of flights at Brussels’ international airport and delays to train services from France, Germany and the Netherlands.
    Forty flights to Brussels’ main airport had been cancelled as of 8am this morning.
    The high-speed Thalys rail service between France, Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands said on its website that snow had delayed services and advised travellers to delay their trips.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2244458/Arctic-Britain-Siberian-freeze-brings-ice-snow-16C-temperatures-week.html

    how will EU Govts justify extending Kyoto?

  85. herkimer says:

    There is no doubt that the presence of strong winter negative AO or ARCTIC OSCILLATION has strong influence on the severity European winters. During the last cold spell for Europe 1962-1987 a period of 26 years , there was a negative winter AO for 77% of the years or 20 years. That is why European winters are colder during Neutral and some El Nino years as they set up negative AO conditions and weaker westerlies which allow cold Arctic air to seep south.[ 2010 winter is a good example

  86. DirkH says:

    herkimer says:
    December 8, 2012 at 11:43 am
    “dirkh
    Are you referring to this?
    There is a paper in AGU called A LINK BETWEEN REDUCED BARENTS -KARA SEA ICE AND COLD WINTER EXTREMES OVER NORTHERN CONTINENTS by V.Petoukhov and V.Semenov”

    Yes, Petoukhov, that was the name.

  87. herkimer says:

    DIRK.H

    Here is the other paper that I alluded to in one of my previous posts. I show their introduction below

    1. Introduction

    Global surface temperatures have generally warmed for the

    entire length of the instrumental record. The most significant

    and strongest warming occurred in the most recent 40 yr,

    with Arctic temperatures warming at nearly double the global

    rate (Solomon et al 2007, Screen and Simmonds 2010).

    Coupled climate models attribute much of this warming to

    rapid increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs) and project the

    strongest warming across the extratropical NH during boreal

    winter due to ‘winter (or Arctic) amplification’ (Holland and

    Bitz 2003, Hansen and Nazarenko 2004, Alexeev et al 2005,

    Langen and Alexeev 2007). Yet, while the planet has steadily

    warmed, NH winters have recently grown more extreme

    across the major industrialized centres. Record cold snaps and

    heavy snowfall events across the United States, Europe and

    East Asia garnered much public attention during the winters

    of 2009/10 and 2010/11 (Blunden et al 2011, Cohen et al

    2010). Cohen et al (2009) argued that the occurrence of

    more severe NH winter weather is a two-decade-long trend

    starting around 1988. Whether the recent colder winters are a

    consequence of internal variability or a response to changes in

    boundary forcings resulting from climate change remains an

    open question.

    Paper called Arctic waming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling

    by Judah L Cohen, Jason C Furtado, Mathew A Balow, Vladmir A Alexeev, and Jessica E Cherry, published in Environmental Research Letter, December 2011

    http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/1/014007/pdf/1748-9326_7_1_014007.pdf

    As i posted earlier, this paper only looked at the period of1990-2010 and implied a connection. They did not study or explain why cold winters and lots of snow happened in the past when there was lots of Arctic ice like 1880-1910 and again 1945-1976 where both periods were cold with lots of snow and cold temperatures . Clearly there are other causes for cold winters and extra snow than warm summers which makes the theory suspect . It appears to me that the AGW theory of only warming winters and warming summers did not materialize in the case of the winters so they had to find a new excuse which they totally missed in their models. Winters were supposed to get warmer in Europe and North America not stay the same for 20 years as they have now done since 1990[ and now actually cooling since 2006]

  88. Kelvin Vaughan says:

    Havn’t seen much sun in the UK this year. My garden has been waterlogged most of the year. The low temperatures are caused by the cold wet ground. Rainfall might not have been much above average for the autumn but the fields have had puddles in them much of the time. That’s not normal!

  89. Otter says:

    Steve mosher, you there? We’re all wanting to know how it feels to be PWNED…..

  90. Billy Liar says:

    herkimer says:
    December 8, 2012 at 12:38 pm

    Take a look at the AO now – it is quite low and the ensemble forecasts expect it to remain low, at least for the next 14 days:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html

    (the link is for the benefit of other readers – you obviously know where to find the AO)

  91. herkimer says:

    This weather alert appears on MET Office weather forecast web page

    Current alert level: Level 3 – Cold Weather Action in one or more regions of England Issued at: Friday 7 December 2012 at 08:32
    There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 0000 on Monday and 0800 on Tuesday in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust’s emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.
    Less cold over the next few days with higher daytime temperatures than of late so the mean temperature criteria is unlikely to be met this weekend, despite overnight frosts. There is now growing confidence that into the start of next week very cold air originating from the east or northeast will spread across the whole of England. An east or northeasterly flow at times will bring snow showers, particularly to the east of England, these sometimes heavy, and leading to locally significant accumulations. At present this spell of very cold weather looks set to last through much of next week and it is likely this alert will need to be extended.

    It looks to me that global warming is going full blast Uk and snow will be a rare thing again this winter. It is much warmer than we thought.

  92. Kev-in-Uk says:

    herkimer says:
    December 8, 2012 at 12:38 pm

    That is correct – however AFAIK the AO is not related to arctic melt! Ergo, how the feck can anyone put arctic melt and cold european winters in the same sentence without demonstration?

  93. Matt G says:

    Increased colder winters and cooler summers are down to weaker solar activity, it is the only climate factor that changed recently and matches different periods over decades. Arctic ice has no influence on causing cold winters, with many occurring before with much more ice than recently during the satellite data. NH maximum snow extent matches periods of changing TSI levels fairly well too. So this link is fairly strong too with seasonal weather in the UK and NH snow extent compared with TSI levels..

    Since the 1960′s when NH snow extent was first collected, the lowest TSI levels during that time are over very recent years (2007+). During this same period NH maximum snow extent has been at it’s highest levels. During the 1980′s and 1990′s TSI levels were at there highest with the lowest NH snow extent during this period. During most of the 2000′s (up to 2007) TSI levels were lower than the 1980′s and 1990′s with NH snow extent higher too. The 1960′s and 1970′s were the next lowest period to very recently with low TSI values and this was also second to highest period with NH snow extent.

  94. Louis says:

    A entire year of below normal temperatures in the UK is just weather. But a single tropical storm hitting the US coast is unmistakable proof of climate change. Do I have that right?

  95. John Brookes says:

    UK, coldest autumn in 20 years. Big deal. US, hottest year since records commenced. Compare and contrast.

  96. John Brooke’s

    According to grist that would be the rather less impressive record of being the warmest since 1934 with by no mean each American state being the ‘warmest ever’

    http://grist.org/news/unless-hell-freezes-over-2012-will-be-the-hottest-year-in-u-s-history/

    All of which should demonstrate that the us hasn’t been keeping reliable records for very long and that GLOBAL warming is no such thing. Around one third of all stations worldwide are cooling according to BEST

    No doubt mosh can clarify the exact parameters of that at the same time he clarifies his claim way above about arctic ice and snow fall

    Tonyb

  97. John Brookes

    Since global temperatures this year are running well below the average for the last 10 years and much lower than 1998, I think we can safely say it is just weather.

  98. herkimer says:

    When it comes to winters we are starting to cross over from just weather to climate .
    The annual global temperature anomaly has been flat for-15 years now or since 1997 and has been actually dropping during the last decade[per hadcrut3gl]

    The winter temperature anomaly for the Northern Hemisphere as measured by Hadcrut3gl shows a negative linear trend for 15 years since 1998

    The European winter temperature departures from 1961-1990 mean normal for land and sea regions of Europe have been flat or even slightly dropping for 20 years or since 1990. They have been noticeably cooler in the post 2007 period[ Per EEA]

    The winter temperatures for Contiguous United States have been dropping since 1990 at -0.26 F per decade [per NCDC]
    The annual temperature for Contiguous United States has been dropping since 1998 at -0.80 F per decade [per NCDC]

    Basically US winter temperatures have been flat with no warming for 20 years
    The winter temperature departures from 1961-1990 mean normal for land and sea regions of Europe have been flat or even slightly dropping for 20 year or since 1990

    The Canadian annual temperature departure form 1961-1990 averages has been flat since 1998
    The Canadian winter temperature anomaly has been rising mostly due to the warming of the far north and Atlantic coast only
    8 of the 11 climate regions in Canada showed declining winter temperature departures since 1998
    During the 2011/2012 winter the Canadian Arctic showed declining winter temperature departures
    The winter temperature departures for the Canadian Arctic Mountains and Fiords dropped from 6 C and 5.2 C in 2010 and 2011 to only 1c in 2012. So Canadian north may be starting to cool as well?
    [CANADIAN DATA PER ENVIRONMENT CANADA]

  99. ferd berple says:

    Eve says:
    December 7, 2012 at 7:12 pm
    I don’t want to do the solar panels thing. We get hurricanes here.
    =========
    Windpower!

  100. Robuk says:

    Sparks says:

    December 8, 2012 at 12:02 pm

    Robuk says:
    December 8, 2012 at 11:35 am

    When the Thames froze over in the past, wasn’t it a lot wider, shallower and slower moving? And now it’s built up, narrower, deeper and faster moving.

    That was the point of the photo below.

    http://i446.photobucket.com/albums/qq187/bobclive/Chance-of-a-lifetime-cyclingonthethames.jpg

  101. be cause says:

    A famine year here in Northern Ireland if it weren’t for imports…cold and dull since March,,to the n,e, of jet stream and air flow from Greenland much of the time .If the ice goes we could feel very exposed to a new pattern that locks out the south except to supply the snow.

  102. vukcevic says:

    Silver Ralph says:
    December 8, 2012 at 8:47 am
    …..
    My dear Vuk…..you seem to have autumn temperatures colder than winter temperatures. Can you check your graph again.
    My dear Silver
    If you were so good at looking at the graph as rushing to your keyboard you would see, that it says in the plain English:
    “Left Scale: Annual , Winter & Spring” while summer and the Autumn are on the right, you even copied in your wasted complaint: “Autumn’s temp’s are shown in brown, the right hand side scale.”
    Not that are you would expect you to apologize, but it would do you lot of good if you did.
    Hi-ho Silver.

  103. Patrick says:

    “Robuk says:

    December 9, 2012 at 9:47 am”

    Really interesting links, nice to see the before and now type comprison pictures. With regards to river flow etc, there is more warm water inflow from power stations and the like these days, but it is mostly a slow moving river that meanders through London for the most part. It still is much much cleaner than it was.

    According to my folks back in the Old Country, it’s VERY VERY cold reminiscent of the ’70′s apparently.

  104. Gail Combs says:

    SAMURAI says:
    December 7, 2012 at 9:34 pm

    How long is this stupid hoax/fraud going to continue?????
    _______________________________________________
    Forever. I just had some nice Lady at a church event explain to me how CO2 can not only cause Global Warming but Global Cooling too. I had to go ‘on stage’ before I could even start debating that statement. (sigh)

    We lost the fight when the Propaganda Machine (aka mas media) went to work changing CAGW to Climate Change and better yet Climate Weirding.

    Unfortunately too many people have zero science or logic training and swallow the propaganda whole.

  105. Gail Combs says:

    The amount of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere for October seems to be increasing. graph

    Here is The October 2012 Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent

    Here is The September 2012 Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent

    The equinox is September 22 BTW.

  106. Gary Pearse says:

    Gail Combs says:
    December 10, 2012 at 7:42 am
    The amount of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere for October seems to be increasing. graph

    And it changes over at about 16 years ago!!

  107. Gail Combs says:

    DirkH says:
    December 8, 2012 at 10:10 am

    …Some Russian working at the PIK has a paper “predicting” this. (One of the many protective hypothesis that shield the body of the HMS Warmism)
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    Is that Dr. Habibullo I. Abdussamatov, Head of the Russian-Ukrainian Astrometria project on the board of the Russian segment of the International Space Station and Head of Space Research of the Sun Sector at the Pulkovo Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences?
    His Project

  108. Gail Combs says:

    Sparks says:
    December 8, 2012 at 10:29 am

    If we are entering a new solar minimum predicted by Ted Landscheidt we should obviously be calling it Landscheidt solar minimum, I wouldn’t have any objections if it were called The Landscheidt Eddy solar minimum, TBH I have been under the impression that the coming solar minimum if it occurs will be named Landscheidt solar minimum after the person who predicted it.
    ___________________________________
    Landerscheidt is Persona-non grata in solar physics circles. That is why they refuse to call the coming minimum after him. It would give credence to his theories that the planets influence the sun.

    Notice how Anthony normally bans any mention of Landscheidt or ‘Cyclomania’ in most cases Example of an exception do a find on ‘Cyclomania’

  109. Ulric Lyons says:

    “The UK Met Office report that the UK has just had its coldest autumn for nineteen years…”

    Partly due to the very strong easterly QBO phase that has been happening this Autumn.

  110. Ulric Lyons says:

    Steven Mosher says:
    December 7, 2012 at 8:35 pm
    “yes, when you have big ice losses in the NP, two of the expected results are colder and more snowy winters in the NH.”

    That’s back to front. With colder winters more warmer sea water is transported northwards, and there is more air exchange between the Arctic and mid latitudes, both of these help to reduce sea ice. Higher levels of ice happen typically with a very positive North Atlantic Oscillator, as in late 1978 and late 1986. The effects the NAO are well obvious through summer months too, with the lower levels of minimum summer ice usually occurring with a negative NAO, like in 2012, 2007 and of course 1958. QBO phase could well play a role too.

  111. herkimer says:

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2012/global-temperatures-2012

    This historical global temperature graph posted by Kev-in-UK well illustrates two past 60 year climate cycles with peaks at 1880, 1940 and 2000. valleys at 1910 and 1970,s, major EL Ninos at 1877/78,1940/41/42 and 1977/78 . There are two flat or cooler period 1880-1920 and again 1940-1980. The global temperature anomalies dropped during the two cooler periods by about 0.42 C and rose during the two warmer periods by about 0.77 C . The total temperature rise during the period 1880-2000 was about 0.6C. If I was a betting man[climate science is really a fancy name for what is really a crap shoot for no one can really predict climate 100 years ahead], would I bet on a similar pattern as in the past to continue or rise by 4 C by 2060 or 3-6 C by 2100., i would go with the former. The two curves namely the observed pattern and the IPCC/Met Office projections are starting to diverge dramatically.

  112. Sparks says:

    Robuk says:
    December 9, 2012 at 9:47

    When was that photo taken? If it was recently and the Thames froze over, obviously it was man made global warming. (Now where did I put that big bag of reality for people bicycling on thin ice?)

    Gail Combs says:
    December 10, 2012 at 8:23 am

    Gail,
    Every astronomer knows how planetary orbits effect our earth, there are astronomers who are observing and measuring planetary distances from our earth to every planet there is. Planets go up and down as well as around and round. Landscheidt did good. To be honest, No one can predict the future, If the sun exploded into a super-solar-maximum like the other so-called “scientists” had predicted way back during solar cycle 23 for solar cycle 24, which is this cycle, (Let’s not pick on people) and all that crap. for something as complex as a geometric planetary variable influence on our star.

    Gail, :)

Comments are closed.