UPDATE: 7:40PM EST …SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL… …CENTER EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO…
Updated graphic from NHC:
As I mentioned yesterday, GOES-14 has been brought back into service to image Hurricane Sandy, and the image below will be updated though the day as Sandy approaches the coast.
UPDATED: The latest bulletin from NHC is sobering, max winds have maintained to 90mph…but looking at the last available visible image that shows any detail, it looks like the storm is losing cohesion.
BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 ...SANDY MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE... ...LANDFALL EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...
Also WUWT readers may have interest in this historic storm story: 50 years ago: The Great Atlantic Storm of 1962. This was a guest post in March by Ric Werme since it was mentioned yesterday in the pleading call to action by the NWS in Mt. Holly, NJ. See also the dark side of this event: Bill McKibben and Joe Romm schlepping for Tabloid Climatology interviews.
See the latest stunning image (now with a defined eye) and full bulletin:
image above from this morning – click image to enlarge to high resolution
here’s the latest one from 2100Z
BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 ...SANDY MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE... ...LANDFALL EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.8N 74.4W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NON-TROPICAL HIGH-WIND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS. THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 38.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHORTLY. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. SANDY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 485 MILES...780 KM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY... DELAWARE...AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND INCLUDING ALL OF THE CHESAPEAKE AND DELAWARE BAYS. HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED BY HAM RADIO OPERATORS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. A HAM RADIO OPERATOR RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 64 MPH...103 KM/H...WITH GUST TO 86 MPH...138 KM/H IN WESTERLY RHODE ISLAND...AND ANOTHER HAM RADIO OPERATOR REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 76 MPH...122 KM/H IN BARNSTABLE MASSACHUSETTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE REACHED THE SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...FROM CONNECTICUT SOUTHWARD TO NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...3 TO 5 FT SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT MA/NH BORDER TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION... ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY. FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AT 700 AND 900 PM EDT...AND WHEN LANDFALL OCCURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
I love those satellite photos taken near sunrise and sunset. They do a great job bringing out out the relief of the cloud tops.
I feel sure that people in the affected areas are ready, plenty of food in the freezer in W Virginia and coastal populations now on high ground and under cover. Best of luck America.
My mother and Several of my brothers and sisters are in PA and NJ around Philadelphia and my father is down in Delaware. I’m watching.
Whahoo!
Ric Werme says: October 29, 2012 at 7:44 am
I love those satellite photos taken near sunrise and sunset. They do a great job bringing out out the relief of the cloud tops.
It is not odd that the light source is from the west, cloud shadows are on east side, at sunrise? It suppose it could be illuminated by the full, or nearly, so moon.
There is a weather watch warning about 7 metre waves in the Great Lakes. Can you tell Andy if the conditions now are similar to those that resulted in the devastating Great Lakes Storm of early November 1913?
en.Wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_ Lakes_Storm_of_1913
I certainly understand all the concern and prep in the mid-altantic. But I sit here this morning in central Massachusetts, all schools are closed, my work is telling me not to come in, and all the best information is that we will not see a sustained 30+ MPH wind until Tuesday-Wednesday. It’s misty/rainy and breezy right now.
There is definitely some insanity here in MA. There is no reason for the emegency treatment today.
Just the warmist’s luck. They get their dreamed for hurricane in the heavily populated Northeast, and it’s going to turn out to be a massive freezing event.
Hi,
I was watching the animation provided by one of your commenters:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templates/loop_directory.asp?data_folder=dev/lindsey/loops/goes14&image_width=1020&image_height=720&number_of_images_to_display=100
and I had found something I did not understand (and do not).
It seems as lower cloud layers are swirling as it should be but the upper layer(s) are not only moving “in corpore” against the hurricane’s revolution, but towards the land __against__ stream jets’ pushing!
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hemi.jet.html
What’s more interesting is the “hot area” just below-left of the storm’s eye which “generates” a lot of clouds which are moving onto the continent and which itself seems to be stationary (in relation to Sandy’s twirl).
Why the two cloud layers are moving in “opposite” directions? Why the two layers exist? Why the “hot plums” of vapor are moving against the hurricane’s rotation?
Regards
I am really glad I am not on the ride-out crew at Naval Station Norfolk…
It’s been a long time since the upper east coast received a significant hurricane. This one is only significant due to the sheer diameter of the entire system and the inertia it will have after leaving the Gulf Stream and moving inland.
New Orleans has parties for Cat 1’s and the rest of the GOM communities hardly blink at them. It is the media that hypes each and every landfalling system making it out to be more than it is. I recognize that this appears to be callous to those that are being affected by Sandy but preparedness for something of this nature gets relaxed when it has been decades since the last major hit this area.
I’ll also point out, that this won’t break the streak of days between landfalling Major storms.
Here’s a nice satellite color animation of Sandy.
http://bcove.me/um75zjg4
CNN reported an hour agi with live view of Atlantic City, and according to the (rather large) weather women, the water could reach up to the shore line!
Shock Horror!
The interesting text is always the forecast discussion rather than the public bulletin: Read this from 11 AM EDT Monday: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/291443.shtml
You will see highest winds are now up to 90 mph but only in a small area southwest of the center, which is still over the Gulf Stream. In a few hours, the center will begin to move over cooler water and will begin to weaken and transition to extratropical.
So much for Piers Corbyn’s forecast of a turn to the northeast.
The hurricane changed its mind and is now going after Obama in Washington?
The computer models from the11 AM report now shows the landfall shifting further south near the southern tip of NJ. I suspect this might push a lot of water up the Delaware Bay/river and cause problems for Philadelphia especially if the landfall moves further south.
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_18.gif
Actually what you are seeing is the Jetstream. Unlike a normal trough that causes the Jetstream to run from Southwest to Northeast up along the coast and out to sea, the current trough has what is called a Negative Tilt. This means that it runs on a Southeast to Northwest axis and is what is pulling Sandy onshore. You can see how the trough and how the Jetstream is running here:
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Wind/JetStream.aspx
By the way, this is one of the few times I agree with Kerry Emanuel. http://blogs.wsj.com/speakeasy/2012/10/28/why-america-has-fallen-behind-the-world-in-storm-forecasting/
The shift of the Hurricane South could also have a greater impact on the NE refineries which are concetrated in the Delaware River
NYC area evacuation zones.
http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/zoneA_evac_centers_102612.pdf
Most of the precipitation , up to 200 mm in 24 hours is probably hitting towards Washington?
From what I saw forecasted yesterday they expected the heaviest precipitation on the SW side of the storm and the largest storm surge on the NE side. So if Sandy lands in the South Jersey area Maryland (including DC) is expected to get up to 10 inches of rain.
Pressure now down to 937mb and may go below 930 before landfall. Whether you are religious or not, please pray for the people up there as this could get very very bad.
PRD says:
October 29, 2012 at 8:24 am
New Orleans has parties for Cat 1′s and the rest of the GOM communities hardly blink at them.
Building Code Design wind speed for New Orleans is 150MPH. In Maine it’s 90 MPH, Connecticut 120 MPH.
The eye is closed on the latest (15:15 UTC) satellite photo:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/vis-l.jpg
Slowing down over cooler water?
The Philadelphia area has had nothing but some fairly breezy rain so far, and if I’m reading the annoyingly overfast but otherwise beautiful map in motion at
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/sandy_hires_uv900_slp_east_animb.gif
it looks like that’s what we’ll continue to have for the next six hours or so before picking up a bit of the backside of Sandy as she waves farewell.
We seem to have COMPLETELY lucked out by being in some sort of spin-off preceeding tail from the eye, with they eye following it into and through Philly. It’s sort of like we’re sitting in a hyperextended eye for 8 hours or so! Anyone know the technical name for that sort of tail in a spiral?
😕
MJM
boallab, the jet stream is a consequence of the interplay between Mobile Polar Anticyclones i.e. polar originated denser colder air masses in the lower troposphere.
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/satellite/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=satellite&imagename=goes_enam_1070_m_………………jpg&nbimages=1&clf=1
This image shows exceedingly well how Sandy is trapped between the eastern edge of a Greenland 1035hPa MPA and the western edge of a 1031hPa MPA centered on the Great Lake region. the imbrication of these cold air masses dictate the path of the storms at their edges, hence this complex mosaic. That’s why Leroux’s work is so important. http://ddata.over-blog.com/xxxyyy/2/32/25/79/Leroux-Global-and-Planetary-Change-1993.pdf
ooops my mistake, Western edge of the Greenland MPA and Eastern edge of the Great Lake MPA… more coffee needed this morning… 😉
Here is my amateurish attempt to provide a little perspective on photos of clouds. From Wikipedia:
“Floyd was once forecast to strike Florida, but turned away. Instead, Floyd struck The Bahamas at peak strength, causing heavy damage. It then paralleled the East Coast of the United States, causing massive evacuations and costly preparations from Florida through the Mid-Atlantic states.”
If you look at the photo of Floyd on Wikipedia you will see that the cloud system covered much more than the state of Florida. The Bahamas are a half day cruise from Florida yet Florida suffered nothing from Floyd. (OK, there was one broken limb in my yard.)
It seems to me that cloud systems tell us very little about the damage that might be caused by the hurricane the generates them. As regards Sandy, I am especially sceptical of claims that tropical storm force winds extend 500 or 250 miles in all directions from the center of the hurricane.
There will be considerable damage when Sandy makes landfall. The region that it will hit has many trees that are more than 70 years old and ripe for 65 mph gusts to blow them down. That will cause enormous power outages. There will be flooding near the coast. But drenching rains, as opposed to coastal flooding, can be caused by tropical storms.
I wish those in the path of this storm, be safe and good luck ! but for the rest of America please deal with the real events and not the media panic!
boballab says:
October 29, 2012 at 8:43 am
Thanks a lot.
But what about the “hotspot” far from Sandy’s center generating the clouds moved then by the Negative Tilt jet stream? It looks like the clouds were being formed by some “other mechanism” and were not part of the cyclone structure.
John Marshall says:
October 29, 2012 at 7:51 am
—
Having food in the freezer won’t do much good if you lose power for a couple of days. Better to have something non-perishable and a reliable and safe stove to cook it on.
Shifting toward DC.
The Algore effect???
Could it be that severe storms are attracted to Bullshifters?
“””””…..Steve Keohane says:
October 29, 2012 at 8:07 am
Ric Werme says: October 29, 2012 at 7:44 am
I love those satellite photos taken near sunrise and sunset. They do a great job bringing out out the relief of the cloud tops
It is not odd that the light source is from the west, cloud shadows are on east side, at sunrise? It suppose it could be illuminated by the full, or nearly, so moon.
…….”””””
Last time I actually saw a sunrise it was in the East. Under normal Optical laws of Physics, that would put the sunrise shadows on the left side of the cloud ridges.
Update to yesterday’s comment:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/AL1812W5.gif
I should have saved this earlier, didn’t know it was a “live” image.
Now heading west of position, tracking no longer straight through my central Pennsylvania house. Got rain, been heavier before, but it’s the duration that’ll matter. Got wind, also had worse before. On a high hill, not worried about flooding, unless the basement start filling up. While water did come in during Agnes in 1972, over the years the basement has been taking in less storm water. Offhand I’d think the microscopic holes in the concrete blocks got mostly filled in over time, reducing seepage.
Of course with Agnes, there was so much water and the ground was so saturated that the water didn’t have anywhere else to go.
At this point, looks like another spring/fall flooding event around here. Locally it’ll be more irritating than damaging, and lots of local people will be wondering what the fuss was about.
Over the coming days, when the runoff works its way down both branches of the Susquehanna River, if the officials start monitoring the floodwalls and closing off the floodgates, THEN Sandy will be something important.
cjames says:
October 29, 2012 at 8:40 am
The interesting text is always the forecast discussion rather than the public bulletin: Read this from 11 AM EDT Monday: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/291443.shtml
You will see highest winds are now up to 90 mph but only in a small area southwest of the center, which is still over the Gulf Stream. In a few hours, the center will begin to move over cooler water and will begin to weaken and transition to extratropical.
So much for Piers Corbyn’s forecast of a turn to the northeast.
I think you had better hold your claim of falsification and lack of skill of Piers and the other meteorologists until _after_ Sandy has made landfall.
A warm tropical airmass hurricane hitting a strong cold front will turn extratropical get larger and then intensify as the cold front slides under the storm and it turns into a cold centered extratropical storm.
Extratropical transition
Tropical cyclones often transform into extratropical cyclones at the end of their tropical existence, usually between 30° and 40° latitude, where there is sufficient forcing from upper-level troughs or shortwaves riding the Westerlies for the process of extratropical transition to begin. During extratropical transition, the cyclone begins to tilt back into the colder airmass with height, and the cyclone’s primary energy source converts from the release of latent heat from condensation (from thunderstorms near the center) to baroclinic processes. The low pressure system eventually loses its warm core and becomes a cold-core system. During this process, a cyclone in extratropical transition (known across the eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans as the post-tropical stage) will invariably form or connect with nearby fronts and/or troughs consistent with a baroclinic system. Due to this, the size of the system will usually appear to increase, while the core weakens. However, after transition is complete, the storm may re-strengthen due to baroclinic energy, depending on the environmental conditions surrounding the system. The cyclone will also distort in shape, becoming less symmetric with time.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extratropical_cyclone
It does appear from latest reports that Sandy is strengthening and its central pressure has dropped to a record low…
The fat lady hasn’t sung yet
If I got your question right, the clouds you are seeing look to be from the cold air coming down with the trough hitting the warm air of Sandy. Tom Rude tried to link to the Environment Canada site which has some good satellite pics that shows where things are coming from. Regrettably his link is busted. I’ll give it a shot and see if WordPress cuts this one off:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/satellite/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=satellite&imagename=goes_ecan_vvi_m_………………jpg&nbimages=1&clf=1
Theo-we used to vacation on Elbow Cay in the Abacos which was the first piece of land struck by Floyd at its Cat 5 strength. Unbelievable damage including shearing the middle skinniest part away. That’s the classic picture on an island surrounded by coral reefs. Hence the pinkish sand.
It is the storm surges that are problemmatic especially when they coincide with high tide. Which this one is scheduled to do. And especially if there is a bay to funnel all that water into. Had it been further north I was just imagining what the Bay of Fundy would have been like.
Nope cut the link off for me too. Just go to here:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/satellite/index_e.html
Then select the product you want. I suggest the GOES East, Eastern Canada IR + Visible medium or large image. The medium gives you a played loop and the large lets you zoom in for greater detail.
Quick global warming update:
On German news, re-insurer Müchener Rück (3rd largest in the world) is quoted as saying that Sandy is nothing unusal. On other German news, there is the heaviest snow in decades in October, even at low altitudes; and in Switzerland, a world ski team competition has been canceled completely because there is too much snow.
Some Boston TV stations are now on backup power due to power outages. We are expecting widespread outages on the massachusetts sea coast and there are reports of large trees down on houses and power lines. High tide will be at around 8pm EDT and further flooding is expected.
Re kadaka 10:47, it’s all very well looking at the predicted track, but look where the bloody thing _is_: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browse2.html . At 1715Z it was already north of Washington I think, and well out to sea. I eyeballed the 1645Z to 1715Z difference, and reckoned it to be moving northwest. So I think New York is in greater danger than Baltimore or Philadelphia.
Rich.
Matt says:
October 29, 2012 at 11:19 am
“On German news, re-insurer Müchener Rück (3rd largest in the world) is quoted as saying that Sandy is nothing unusal.”
That’s unprecedented!
Ian W says:
October 29, 2012 at 11:03 am:
“I think you had better hold your claim of falsification and lack of skill of Piers and the other meteorologists until _after_ Sandy has made landfall.”
I don’t quite know what you are saying here. His forecast of a turn to the northeast isn’t going to happen. That part of his forecast was simply wrong.
kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
October 29, 2012 at 10:47 am
“ . . . over the years the basement has been taking in less storm water. Offhand I’d think the microscopic holes in the concrete blocks got mostly filled in over time, . . .
Our house, years ago, in Clarion, PA, had a seepage problem such that the walls in the basement would get wet a few feet up from the floor. Before backfilling, the outside was treated (?) but to little effect. The cheap fix was to chisel holes from the inside at the base and allow the water in. Small channels were cut all around next to the walls so the inflow was carried to a 3 ft. deep by 3 ft. wide hole (sump) and then pumped out. For the big storms the pump would run continuously. Well, until the power went out. A foot or two of water in the basement (uncommon) would then result. Father moved out in 1981, but the house still stands. Something to wonder about as Sandy moves slowly inland.
Forgive me if I am wrong, but isn’t this a bit of an overreaction? Wind speeds of 50 mph and lots of rain? Isn’t this just a case of politicians playing safe to show that they are doing ‘something’?
Let’s just wait until this gets upgraded to ‘English Summer’
Sugar Mountain ski resort in NC is opening on 10/31, its earliest opening ever by a week.
Robin says:
October 29, 2012 at 11:17 am
“Theo-we used to vacation on Elbow Cay in the Abacos which was the first piece of land struck by Floyd at its Cat 5 strength. Unbelievable damage including shearing the middle skinniest part away. That’s the classic picture on an island surrounded by coral reefs. Hence the pinkish sand.
It is the storm surges that are problemmatic especially when they coincide with high tide. Which this one is scheduled to do. And especially if there is a bay to funnel all that water into. Had it been further north I was just imagining what the Bay of Fundy would have been like.”
Thanks for your response. Why did you stop vacationing there?
I expect damage from coastal flooding. And New York City does have a lot of coast. However, I am looking now at video from Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and I see some nice waves that aren’t making it all the way up the beach. That is not tropical storm weather.
Some of ABC/CBS/CNN/MSNBC are claiming that there are tropical storm force winds that extend 465 miles from the center. What? Are they claiming that there is a tropical storm that is between 500 and 1,000 miles long? Preposterous! It is as if they were looking at the cloud photo above and declaring all of it as tropical storm except for the hurricane (cat 10!) at the center. Our dear old MSM has become demented. We should not encourage their folly.
john says:
October 29, 2012 at 11:30 am
“Some Boston TV stations are now on backup power due to power outages. We are expecting widespread outages on the massachusetts sea coast and there are reports of large trees down on houses and power lines. High tide will be at around 8pm EDT and further flooding is expected.”
Given an area that has not seen so much as a tropical storm in 30 years, my guess is that a tropical storm in your area would knock down about 1% of your trees. That will devastate your power grid. Otherwise, wind damage should not be much unless you are on the coast.
Here are the strongest wind gusts (not sustained winds) as of 3:44 PM EDT:
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
344 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE STORM
THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO
HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS…COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS…SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND
MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME
PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC
***********************PEAK WIND GUST***********************
LOCATION MAX WIND TIME/DATE COMMENTS
GUST OF
MPH MEASUREMENT
CONNECTICUT
…ANZ330…
2 S GROTON 76 300 PM 10/29 MESONET
…NEW LONDON COUNTY…
STONINGTON 70 300 PM 10/29 EMERGENCY MNGR
NEW JERSEY
…HUDSON COUNTY…
1 ENE BAYONNE 68 300 PM 10/29 MESONET
NEW YORK
…ANZ338…
2 N TOMPKINSVILLE 72 130 PM 10/29 MESONET
…NASSAU COUNTY…
3 E LIDO BEACH 70 145 PM 10/29 MESONET
SYOSSET 58 1244 PM 10/29 TRAINED SPOTTER
BAYVILLE 56 1140 AM 10/29 TRAINED SPOTTER
…QUEENS COUNTY…
NYC/JFK AIRPORT 66 134 PM 10/29 ASOS
…SUFFOLK COUNTY…
4 ENE PLUM ISLAND 84 303 PM 10/29 MESONET
EATONS NECK 74 252 PM 10/29 MESONET
1 ENE MONTAUK HIGHWA 73 220 PM 10/29 MESONET
1 S BLUE POINT 67 242 PM 10/29 MESONET
ISLIP AIRPORT 66 303 PM 10/29 ASOS
EAST FARMINGDALE 62 227 PM 10/29 ASOS
$$
PICCA
Formatting all screwed up but the two digit number after the location name is the peak wind.
Just watching Michio Kaku on CNN, hyping it up. He is an embarresment. He was introduced as a climate expert, I didn’t know he was one, and wouldn’t a weather expert be a more relevant person to interview. Apparently a hurricane has never coliided with another low and a shot of arctic air before. I struggle to believe this.
Thoughts and prayers with all in the way of this.
Hey cjames, thanks, I was looking for something like that. Personally I found http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/currentweatherusnational/uscurrentwindsgusts_large.html but I prefer tabulated data really. What about sustained wind speeds? Anyway, it doesn’t look as though Sandy is going to make landfall with hurricane force winds.
What were those other non-hurricanes recently? Irene, …?
Rich.
Heh. Channel 16, Wilkes-Barre/Scranton in Pennsylvania, just reported the pressure down to 28.6 inches-Hg. I checked the old barometer, currently hanging on the side of a cabinet, and it says 28.58! Unknown make and model, ship wheel style, just says “Made in Germany” thus pre-WWII, has survived kids and cats knocking it down numerous times… I don’t recall seeing it that low in years, it always hung around between “Change” (29.5) and “Fair” (30.0), hardly moved. I didn’t think it was still functional!
Checked the back, there’s a hole above the adjustment screw. How are these calibrated? Should I disturb it at all?
If you are looking for tabular data go to this web site: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/national.php?map=on
Click on the state you are interested in and then click on “public information”. You can get the hourly observations from the major reporting stations, which include steady wind speeds, by clicking on “hourly report”
Kadaka, you wrote about your barometer reading unusually low, “Checked the back, there’s a hole above the adjustment screw. How are these calibrated? Should I disturb it at all?”
YES! Please adjust it up toward “Fair” (say around 30) and you’ll see the weather improve by tomorrow!
– Al Gore
Sitting in Blackwood, NJ about 45 minutes NW from Atlantic City. Light winds, constant rain but our fan in the window is blowing harder than the wind outside….
Hmmmmm…we’ll see what happens over the next hour or so, at least that’s when they said Sandy would be making landfall. We’re only an hour inland from the coast…with traffic.
Gaylon
RADAR loop from over the last few hours and as it looks to have made landfall:
http://i47.tinypic.com/14uaubl.gif
Image is not updated as time progresses; this was a ‘static’ gif capture.
(Hopefully the image turned out okay!)
.
There is no hurricane in New York, Monday or Tuesday.
Just another Irene.
Here in Stonington CT (near Rhode Island) I mile inland. Winds are strong and gusting to very strong. Intermittent rain coming sideways. I have lost power (at 3PM) and several large trees. Neighbors reporting similar damage. Knock wood, nobody hurt.
Dunno Theo … here’s the surface map taken the last 20 mins … doesn’t look quite like tropical storm winds quite 500 miles to the west (Ohio and Michigan off to the NW on the map below) although to the NE (New England area) it may be a different story:
http://i50.tinypic.com/33e04z5.gif
.
28.52 in-Hg! Wind’s picking up now, ’bout normal for a spring “dangerous high gusting winds” day. As a quirk in local geography, the wind hits the west side of the hill (small mountain) and shoots overhead. Sounds very strong over the tops of the trees of the forest starting in the backyard, but we’re just over the peak on the leeward side so not much wind on the ground.
Heading out to the pharmacy and to get some stuff soon. Worst thing to worry about is trees in the road.
_Jim says:
October 29, 2012 at 2:09 pm
That is one fascinating map. I am in the area covered and the numbers are nowhere in the right range. No offense intended. The map you referenced is as good as any other I have seen today.
“So much for Piers Corbyn’s forecast of a turn to the northeast.”
Watched weather forecast about an hour ago, and it was showing the hurricane moving north east headed towards New Jersey…
Hardly the storm of the century.
Scotland gets winds stronger than this every fortnight or so.
This seems more remeniscent of Hurricane Hazel, which devastated Toronto in 1954. At 81 deaths in Ontario and 135 MC$ damage (1.1 billion in 2009 C$ according to Wikipedia) it was one of the most costly Canadian storm. The Hazel assignment was removed from Atlantic Hurricane designation because of the devastation from Haiti through the Carolina coast to Ontario.
Similar to what seems to be the case for Sandy, it is claimed (Wikipedia again) that after travelling 1,100 km (680 mi) overland from the Carolinas it merged with an existing powerful cold front and stalled over the Greater Toronto Area. Even though it was extratropical, it remained a category 1 hurricane. I recall the night quite well where I was (Chatham ON). It poured rain all night but there was negligible flooding. Toronto was a completely different story.
The eye just passed us…whew! dodged a bullet (sarc/off). Still light winds here and drizzle. Watching a news cast of a guy on the coast commenting on “whipping” winds “driving” rain while a potted palm swayed gracefully behind him, no visible rain, lol. It’s kinda suspicious to me when they don’t wipe the water spots off the lens cover.
Sorry to hear, and do believe, that it must be worse somewhere else, and we hope you guys are all alright.
But here at ground zero this has turned out to be a non-event up to this point. Newscasters saying local sustained winds around 40 mph with gusts all the way up to 54 mph! Me thinks the 90 mph winds may be up a few dozen hundred feet, cuz we haven’t seen a gust that I would even call 30 mph. Oh well.
it’s 6pm our time.
Gaylon.
It a whole lot of nothing here in western New Hampshire. Some brisk winds and rain but it looks like we’ll be clearing out tonight unless the center decides to make that northerly jog they been forecasting…
— 2 Hour RADAR Loops, times ending as indicated —
The eye shows up on the first loop (ending 1826 UTC) and becomes harder to identify on each subsequent set of loops:
UTC .. PM EDT
—— .. ———
1826 2:26 http://i50.tinypic.com/2iu8fb5.gif
1842 2:42 http://i49.tinypic.com/28i017k.gif
1910 3:10 http://i50.tinypic.com/4qn87n.gif
1943 3:43 http://i45.tinypic.com/2dkicmd.gif
2034 4:34 http://i47.tinypic.com/14uaubl.gif
2112 5:12 http://i48.tinypic.com/jpaj4j.gif
2128 5:28 http://i50.tinypic.com/17qu7b.gif
2206 6:08 http://i50.tinypic.com/2a5ye0o.gif
Loops are ”captured” (static) and will not change with the passage of time (they are not updated).
.
Hey, cjames, thanks for the tip about http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/national.php?map=on .
I actually found a place where you can see the last 3 days’ observations, e.g.:
http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KFME.html for Tipton Maryland where the maximum wind and gust has been 25 and 48 mph respectively. I reached it from http://w1.weather.gov/xml/current_obs/ and typing a state in and then following XML links.
In fact, I just checked, and to get to “my” pages from yours, you click Observations, scroll down a bit, and then click “Current Weather RSS and XML”. Think I’m off to check out New York and points east…
Rich.
I’ll take it from the lack of any mention here that most don’t realize that large-scale geo-engineering experiments (ie: “research”) is ongoing. Better read up a bit on the latest from some credible sources such as: http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-10-903 for starters. There are many others sources, search them out, ignore some of the far-fetched claims without further real investigative evidence. Aerosol spraying… talk about playing like God! I’d rather the governments leave our atmosphere alone.
You might not like what you find.
For heavens sake vote for someone with some common sense, you’ve got hoards of dorks in the government and its agencies and universities calling themselves “scientists” thinking God/nature doesn’t really know what he/she is doing and they are going to set it straight my geo-engineering this planet into what they think is “correct”? This seems to be the current mindset of the 75 out of 77 “expert” climatologist eco-freaks.
It’s nothing but money, money, money though. Personally I’m glad our planet climbed out of the Little Ice Age and yes, there was an upward slope on temperatures to achieve that. Duh! Just who do they think they are?
Not sure where to post this, but I had to share: I was watching local Washington DC NBC affiliate today around 2:00pm for their Sandy coverage when a very bizarre thing happened.
One of the reporters was doing his duty as man in the storm, reporting on a downed tree, when he spots a truck parked in the middle of the road near the TV crew. He naturally went over to interview the people in the truck and it turned out the occupants were from Greenpeace.
From the interview it appears that their only purpose to be out in the storm was to find a reporter and give them the “This kind of disaster will get worse due to global warming” spiel.
It was really, really bizarre.
I’ve been looking online to see if it’s been posted to youtube yet. I’ll post here when I find it.
Found the video! Here is local reporter Shomari Stone being approached by greenpeace activists shopping their story in the middle of a storm.. and I’d guess filming for future commercials.
OK I see the “chemtrails” crowd have arrive, just calling ’em out. Meanwhile back on Planet Earth … looks like some bad cells about to rotate into NYC.
People here seem to be determined to downplay this, while those who are taking the brunt no doubt have lost power so they can’t respond. This report was just posted on the DT site:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/9641666/Hurricane-Sandy-unleashes-chaos-on-Americas-east-coast-as-storm-surge-brings-devastating-floods.html
I’m very glad I’m safe in the UK and not on the NE coast of America tonight, and won’t be in Sandy’s path for the next few days. I hope those who needed to be prepared, were and are; most of my friends are since they are sailing folk
The loss of the Bounty and her Captain is tragic but she should never have put to sea.
JabbaTheCat says:
October 29, 2012 at 2:44 p
“Watched weather forecast about an hour ago, and it was showing the hurricane moving north east headed towards New Jersey…”
What fantasy land are they living in? It was moving WNW towards southern New Jersey and has come onshore south of Atlantic City . It is now heading into southeastern Pennsylvania.
I am listening to the ABC (Australia) coverage, and it’s endless ignorance and dimwitted questions. Excepting the weather girl, who does seem to understand what she is talking about.
Can you name any specific activities and locations? Can you name any specific individuals or universities involved? Can you point out, or point to, any specific grant monies going towards that/those activities? (No youtube videos, please.)
Your link points to a page titled: “A Coordinated Strategy Could Focus Federal Geoengineering Research and Inform Governance Efforts”
I take this to mean that _no_ activities are on-going; please also note the weasel word I bolded in the above tutle. Furthermore, within the text on that page I find:
The above statement seems to contradict your opening statement re: “… most [ppl] don’t realize that large-scale geo-engineering experiments (ie: “research”) is ongoing.” on these two points: (1) ‘large-scale’ and (2) ‘on-going’.
.
Can anyone explain why there seems to be such a difference between:
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/sandy_hires_uv900_slp_east_animb.gif
and
http://i50.tinypic.com/2iu8fb5.gif
as the first seems to clearly show the eye moving through central NJ, while the second seems to show it moving through central Delaware???
😕
MJM
At 8 PM EDT, Kennedy Airport near NYC just had a wind gust to 79 mph. Winds at top of skyscrapers may have gusted close to 100 mph. Storm surge near Manhattan financial district hit 12.54 feet, which may send saltwater into subway system causing quite a bit of damage and prolonged shutdowns.
Storm surge approaching 14′ in many areas … as much as 5′ above the Historical Max Water Levels
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quicklook/data/SANDY.html
Blizzard Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
218 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
...FIRST WINTER STORM IS A BLIZZARD FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN...
.THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE SANDY WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.
WVZ035>038-046-047-300230-
/O.CON.KRLX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-121031T2000Z/
RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BECKLEY...OAK HILL...FAYETTEVILLE...
MONTGOMERY...SUMMERSVILLE...RICHWOOD...CRAIGSVILLE...COWEN...
MARLINTON...ELKINS
218 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
* LOCATIONS...VERY ELEVATION DEPENDENT WITH THE BEST CHANCES
ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN...BUT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE VALLEYS.
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE 3000 FEET ELEVATION WITH
11 TO 18 INCHES BELOW 2000 FEET ELEVATION.
* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
* TIMING...PERIODS OF SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN FOR THE VALLEYS...
WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE BRUNT OF THE STORM OCCURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.
* IMPACTS...THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS...
CAUSING POWER OUTAGES OR FLUCTUATIONS. SNOW LOADING...OR THE
WEIGHT OF THE SNOW...MAY CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE...INCLUDING
COLLAPSING ROOFS. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND WOULD LEAD
TO BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.
ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RLX.
&&
$$
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=WVZ035&warncounty=WVC081&firewxzone=WVZ035&local_place1=&product1=Blizzard+Warning
Atlantic City Airport reporting a barometric pressure of 948.5mb or 28.01inHg!!! That is an all time record for sure.
Let’s work on the 2nd (which is s RADAR image of the actual storm): in the last image the eye of that loop the eye looks to be showing about 90 nm east of the RADAR site (it begins its track at about 150 nm just a little S of E; note the CCW motion, that is your key). The RADAR site is near Dover (site name is “DOX”) and is marked by a “+” in the center of the range rings (which are 60 nm each).
So we sight the ‘eye’ at 1 1/2 range rings east (90 nm) at the closest (at the end of the set of images in the sequence) and it looks to be moving roughly NNW which would look to put it into the Atlantic City area (given this RADAR imagery).
Later RADAR sequences should be inspected for the actual track as it occurs later … the lack of precip in the eye (from which to obtain a RADAR paint of the eye) does make it a little difficult to observe precisely …
.
Western New Hampshire. Brisk winds right now but only sporadic heavy rains. No power outage yet. Not as bad as Irene so far…
michaeljmcfadden says:
October 29, 2012 at 5:21 pm
“Can anyone explain why there seems to be such a difference between:
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/sandy_hires_uv900_slp_east_animb.gif
and
http://i50.tinypic.com/2iu8fb5.gif
as the first seems to clearly show the eye moving through central NJ, while the second seems to show it moving through central Delaware???”
I share your confusion. I have been watching the TV and surfing the net for several hours and have heard a lot of different “stories” as to when and where the Hurricane made landfall.
No wonder we get conflicting stories as to global warming with the same “data”
Is there official info on this??
@ James at 48: It’s called a large storm James, a hurricane, they have always happened and always will, or are you just that dense? Maybe it’s the government graphics affecting you.
@ I thank jmotivator and all of the other for the info with their ‘feet on the ground’ so to speak. With relatives in S.E. Pennsylvania this information is invaluable.
Yet it is sad, you see all of the fast moving spinning blue over a location, call them up in fear asking “are you alright?”, just to get the response “sure, it’s a pretty nice here, light wind, overcast but it’s not raining yet”, just to hang up saying WTF! is going on, those were live images from government sites and gave you the impression all hell was breaking loose over that large area on the map yet no one reports seeing the fury? A lot of people are going to want answers about this one, it was clearly over-blown with the new super-sensitive equipment and the programmers that transform that data into graphics. Maybe unintentional, I’ll give the one benefit of a doubt.
I think maybe some re-programming to bring the graphics in-line with the level of severity and reality that people actually experience at given location of the maps. That would help.
Now it makes you wonder how big this storm would have appeared on the older equipment.
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/UA_USA_East_hires/UA_USA_East_hires_07_Day.shtml
Lower Manhattan is getting hammered. The NYSE has sandbag walls, nearly over topped. Surge is up on Gold Street. For those familiar with the area that is a few feet above sea level, up a small hill from the waterfront. Meanwhile down at battery it was double overhead. Anyone caught down there is now in sad shape.
Here’s a link to a site with lots of photos of parts of NYC under water, lots of breaking updates on what’s happening there, and many “fringe” commenters with wild opinions.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-29/postcards-underwater-new-york
Indeed.
NW CT about 50 miles inland. High winds, some rain, occaisional power outages of a few seconds. Seems like the worst is over. Shoreline getting hard hit
Roger Knights says:
October 29, 2012 at 6:37 pm
It looks bad, but the waters will recede, the damage repaired, and life will go on. You should have seen Vermont last year after Irene…
Do you have people in Atlantic City?
Did they come through okay? I don’t think we have heard yet if AC is still even on the map … and NYC is not fairing too well due to storm surge (which IS the *biggest* killer! Check the stats! It’s what got New Orleans!) … can we wait at least until daylight and maybe even until state-wide assessments are made before putting heads on Punji sticks?
They are still showing power line arcs (power transformer explosions) in NYC (seen via The Weather Channel) too …
According to tide gages NYC got the worst of the surge. Specifically, The Battery got the worst. A worst case scenario for Manhattan.
James at 48 and water is already receding fast… a worst case scenario for some indeed.
28.22 in-Hg! That is so low on the old barometer the hand has swept through “Stormy” and is barely still on the “S”.
Down the hill, the town is on a historic flood plain, alongside the Susquehanna River, surrounded by small mountains. Flood wall, large storm drain system with many pumping stations. High winds with whipping rains on the far south end of town, where I got a can of fuel oil. Windy and rainy on north end around 8PM where I stopped for quick groceries, I’ve known much worse. But at first stop before those about the middle of town, prescriptions and exchanged a propane tank, not much wind. The surrounding buildings make a difference.
Back home here, the “sweet spot” on top of the hill is fine. Wind is roaring like a freight train all around, but hardly touching the property.
I’d like to put all the thanks on my father, say he chose this spot well. But Nature helped. I’ve seen pictures from over 50 years ago when my parents started building the house, it used to be naked farmland all around here. The forest has reclaimed much of the area, and does provide a notable amount of buffering. Without those trees, annoying as they can be, the winds would be worse.
And the parents bought the land off of relatives who lived just up the road.
But building this house by his own hands from rough-surfaced full-sized rock-hard oak, so tough I found I can’t even drive a small wire staple into a basement beam and must pre-drill, that was all him. No matter whatever the winds do, these walls do not move.
HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED BY HAM RADIO OPERATORS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. A HAM RADIO OPERATOR
RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 64 MPH…103 KM/H…WITH GUST
TO 86 MPH…138 KM/H IN WESTERLY RHODE ISLAND…AND ANOTHER HAM
RADIO OPERATOR REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 76 MPH…122 KM/H IN
BARNSTABLE MASSACHUSETTS.
=============
This from the National Hurricane Center? WTF? WUWT? GFYS.
There are a lot of jokes about hams.
From Big Bird — Did you hear the one about the ….. ?
Sigh ….. Don’t write if if you are not willing to put your ass on the line.
NHC better hope I never become in charge. THERE WILL BE CHANGE YOU CAN BELIEVE IN.
Here’s a quote from a story up on Bloomberg News: “Once a piece of electrical equipment comes into contact with salt water, it is essentially ruined.”
The NYC’s flooded subway tunnels are therefore going to need replacement of their signals and switching controls, at a minimum. That will take weeks. People won’t be able to get into Manhattan to work. Lots of economic fallout from that.
From Roger Knights on October 30, 2012 at 5:32 am:
Lots of the work that lots of those people did in Manhattan was occupy pricey office space while shuffling paper. Over those weeks many companies will discover the savings from telecommuting, teleconferencing by Skype etc, and by simply having less people. And eventually less office square footage, in less expensive locales.
Thousands of people commute to NYC from the Poconos every day. If you don’t have lots of foot traffic or frequent meetings with clients that must be face to face in person, why not have your office in the Poconos? Cheaper, and now proven to be less at risk for damage from storm surges, and from terrorists.
NYC will be dealing with this for years / decades.
****
kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
October 29, 2012 at 2:32 pm
Sounds very strong over the tops of the trees of the forest starting in the backyard, but we’re just over the peak on the leeward side so not much wind on the ground.
****
kadaka, the sound of the winds on the ridge 700′ above me last night was frightening/awesome. When I’d hear a thunderous roar, it would be 5-10 seconds before the gust reached the ground & hammered the house. The wind was far stronger up there than down here. Don’t know yet if there was a massive wind-throw up there, but oak forests are tough.
Theo Goodwin,
I may disagree with Anthony from time to time; however, all your posts on this thread are in extremely bad taste. If you are a random sample of climate change scepticism, it says little for the rest. Given the destruction and deaths, you disgust me, and this is coming from someone who is instinctively right-wing. You are an utter embarrassment to your nation – the exact opposite of Gov. Christie. Have you the faintest idea of how people, internationally, are looking in on your comments?
John Mason says:
October 30, 2012 at 11:11 am
===============
I went back and reread all of Theo Goodwin’s comments and have no idea what you are talking about. Does Goodwin simply say/write something that does not support your viewpoint?
John Mason says:
October 30, 2012 at 11:11 am
My topic is the storm. Your interests are elsewhere.