This model run (ECMWF) has Hurricane Sandy making a near bulls-eye on the Outer Banks of North Carolina with some impact on Norfolk, Washington, and Baltimore. It has some (but not all) of the components of the devastating 1954 Hurricane Hazel, which has a few folks worried.
The good news is that the National Hurricane Center puts it further out to sea:
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA OVERNIGHT...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS SANDY MOVES OVER EASTERN CUBA...WITH SOME RESTRENGTHENING EXPECTED AFTER SANDY MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. KINGSTON JAMAICA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 44 MPH...70 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM JAMAICA IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EASTERN CUBA THIS EVENING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... JAMAICA...1 TO 3 FT SOUTHEASTERN CUBA 3 TO 5 FT CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
Plenty of models have this ruining our month up here in Rhode Island. More here:
http://talkingabouttheweather.wordpress.com/2012/10/24/computer-models-hurricane-sandy-to-slam-northeast/
Not good if it doesn’t turn away from the coast. I’m rooting for the models this time.
I guess one will have to make landfall eventually, …..
I live in the Baltimore area and there is a restaurant just off the Beltway that is next to the Potapsco river. To this day, you can go into the bar and see where the high water mark from Hazel was recorded.
On a more personal note, my daughter and her new husband are scheduled to sail from Baltimore on Sunday mid-day for a weeks cruise to the Bahamas. I think I’ll get them sea sick pills as a going away present.
Could be a repeat of Hurricane (Nor’easter) Noel from early Nov. 2007. Cause some minor damage/power outages up here in Nova Scotia.
The first sailboat race in the 2012 Frostbite Series is scheduled for Sunday in Hampton Roads.
I so prefer 5kts instead of 35…
Of course, if it does hit the coast, climate alarmists will cherry-pick that as an undeniable “proof” of AGW.
Give the central Atlantic states a cold arctic air blast to boot and maybe we can have a foot or so of fresh snow for the opening of hunting season early Nov. Ye haa!
“Let’s hope this forecast for Hurricane Sandy is wrong”
I’m sure it is wrong. The most accurate model, produced by GFS ( Global Forecast System), estimates landfall much further North, in New England.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201218_model.html (red track=GFS)
Some of the confusion may be caused by the so-called “ensemble models”, which are comprised of about twenty less stringent variations of GFS with initial/boundary conditions spread over the possible extremes of these preconditions (pink tracks). The GFS (white track) is the most stringent, with all parameters set for computing the most likely path.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201218_ensmodel.html
The idea behind this ensemble is an attempt to render the extreme “what if” boundaries of where the storm could feasibly meander, given a wide variety of hypothetical preconditions.
“The idea behind this ensemble is an attempt to render the extreme “what if” ……………………………. given a wide variety of hypothetical preconditions.”
Oh, like climate models !!
How about we pray for a little Norfolk to Boston urban/national renewal.
We could build new financial and governemtn capitals in, oh, Argenta IL or Friendship KY, and Dodge City KS or maybe Mullen in Hooker county NB. No air conditioning this time. Look what happened when we installed it in DC back in 1929.
Yesssireee a fresh, clean, free start. A new dawn for America! I’m feeling more optimistic, already.
Wow! I musta dozed off through the summer. How did we get all the way to “Sandy” (# 18) in another conspicuously un-stormy year?
“Global warming works in mysterious ways” – McKibben/Borenstein/Trenberth/Gore/etc
Apparently one thing that will keep it from going out to see is the currently negative NAO. That’s what brought the snow storms into the mid-Atlantic after the Copenhagan COP a few years ago.
The NHC is expecting it to go extratropical around latitude 37, which means lesser wind near the center, but also means the wind field broadens. Think Nor’easter on steroids, and note that some of the worst storms in New England have been nor’easters. So, could be interesting.
The NHC also notes in their more general discussion at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/242053.shtml :
“Oh, like climate models !!”
Yes, ‘all models are wrong’, but these GFS ensemble models are often useful. They represent the extreme boundaries of where the storm could feasibly go given a wide range of possibilities (some of which are considered very unlikely). But unlike climate models, the GFS ‘most likely’ path forecast is usually very accurate.
Easily verifiable by marking these words: “Sandy will make landfall in New England”
Johanus,
I was under the impression that the ECMWF is the gold standard and the GFS is far behind. Cliff Mass certainly thinks so. Where did you get your claim about the GFS?
“Easily verifiable ”
Oh then my mistake… NOT like climate models. 🙂
The Wall Street Journal warns about what it is calling a snor’eastercane.
“Regardless of the exact landfall location on the East Coast, impacts will be felt from Florida to Maine. Nearly every single major weather model now shows the eventual “phasing,” or capture, of Hurricane Sandy by an intense polar airmass.”
[ … ]
“In a nearly unprecedented step, the National Weather Service has ordered a nationwide doubling of weather balloon launches starting Thursday afternoon in an attempt to get a better handle on this unusual atmospheric setup.”
http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2012/10/24/weather-journal-when-hurricane-meets-snowstorm/?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines
Johanus says:
October 24, 2012 at 2:40 pm
The GFS had the storm in a different place today. I’ll put my money on the ECMWF. Regardless, I hope folks are planning for the worst and getting ready now.
“The good news is that the National Hurricane Center puts it further out to sea:”
Good news for who…the people of the south Mid Atlantic? Not good news for those of us who live in the northeast. Also Johanus, how long have you been watching the GFS for…? EURO, while more inconsistent this year, is the gold standard as Matt Skaggs said. EURO has better physics,
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_18.gif
Hazel
http://www.ec.gc.ca/ouragans-hurricanes/default.asp?lang=En&n=5C4829A9-1
NYC? Could happen.
That is the first turn to the northwest I’ve seen.
Yes, the coast bears watching.
Nice heads up, Anthony.
Sort of Hurricane Ryder Cup! Only this time, this Brit (no way Euro) is firmly in the NHC team, Sandy go east young man, go east
RE: ” clipe says:
October 24, 2012 at 3:59 pm…”
Thanks for including the link:
http://www.ec.gc.ca/ouragans-hurricanes/default.asp?lang=En&n=5C4829A9-1
The thing that puzzled me about Hazel in 1954 was the fact Hazel didn’t “die” as most hurricanes do, once over land. The above link, by separating Hazel into the primary hurricane which did die, and a “Hazel 2” which developed on the cold front close but southwest of the original center, shows how a storm can keep its strength even while “transitioning.”
If Sandy doesn’t just escape out to sea, (which still might happen,) and instead cuts back sharply to the northwest, the “transitioning” of Sandy into a nor’easter could be a number of different scenarios. Perhaps it will simply ruin the development of any nor’easter, and create a stalled front with amazing rains. However it also might fuel a “bombogenesis” of epic proportions.
I’ve read descriptions of how swiftly the Blizzard of 1888 exploded, dictated by fishermen who were out to sea as it happened. Things went from a partly cloudy, spring-like day to black clouds very quickly, and then suddenly those fishermen were fighting for their lives in a screaming gale, (back in the days of sail.)
In other words, even as a hurricane dies, a nor’easter can spin up with amazing speed, especially when you mix juicy, tropical air with an arctic blast. I am not taking Sandy lightly.
I’m getting mixed messages. This post mentions a model showing Sandy hitting NC and the National Hurricane Center putting it out to sea. I was rooting for it to stay at sea. On drive time radio coming home today, one weather segment mentioned models showing Sandy hanging a left and going inland across New England. I missed the local TV take on this but it wouldn’t surprise me a bit if they called another path.
I know forecasting the path of a hurricane is a cr@pshoot, but this is a bit ridiculous.
What this means, is, instead of initializing ‘models’ with actual measured meteorological data (radiosonde observations of temp, humidity, wind direction, inferences of ‘pressure’/altitude from ground level on-up) every 12 hours, they will do this every 6 hours.
Map of the NWS Rawinsonde Network (a really rather sparse network!) from which balloons are launched:
http://www.ua.nws.noaa.gov/nws_upper.htm
.
I’m going to work from home Friday. I’m not going to drive down US-1 to Melbourne through that stuff just to drive back home through it. Yuch. Hoping it stays offshore of Cape Canaveral!
H.R. says:
October 24, 2012 at 5:23 pm
“I know forecasting the path of a hurricane is a cr@pshoot, but this is a bit ridiculous.”
=======
The latest I’ve found:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl#contents
Refresh at will, I think ?
Crapshoot indeed.
I’ve been watching this for some time now. We have a great weather guy in New England, Matt Noyes, who does a terrific job of technical analysis on his page (do a search).
Eyes have been on the “Omega” block that will be setting up out in the Atlantic, which if it happens, will keep the storm from making the traditional “right turn” and head East, out to sea.
I think this is going to be bad, period. Aug of 2011 we got hit with Irene. We were without power for about 4 days. Then we got hit with the historic Trick or Treat storm at the end of October…lost power for another 4 days. This could easily put both of those to shame, given the energy and the various systems/boundaries all coming together.
Sailing out of Baltimore on Sunday? Yeah…that ain’t happening. A friend of mine is associated with the Picton Castle, up in Lunenberg, N.S. She was due to leave port yesterday with a ship full of trainees making for the Caribbean and then Panama Canal. That ain’t happening either.
Rick, I’m about 70 miles south of you, a bit East of Worcester. Can I park my motorhome in your driveway? 😉
JimB
ducard says:
October 24, 2012 at 2:37 pm
Of course, if it does hit the coast, climate alarmists will cherry-pick that as an undeniable “proof” of AGW.
They’re already doing that.
http://tomnelson.blogspot.com/2012/10/hurricane-sandy-next-climate-wake-up.html
Four days without power, on the run up to an election! The silence might be blissful.
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
Looks like a monster.
I grew up in Florida and now live in New Hampshire and all I have to say is ho-hum. Models pfffft!
If global temperatures are about the same now as 1954 we can expect another Hurricane Hazel.
UF v UGA tix in hand for JAX saturday. Go Away!!! go Away!!! Go Away!!!!!!!
Jim Butler says:
October 24, 2012 at 6:22 pm
> I’ve been watching this for some time now. We have a great weather guy in New England, Matt Noyes, who does a terrific job of technical analysis on his page (do a search).
Yes, Matt is very good. http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/ Our paths cross occasionally in person and from Email exchanges about weather obs.
> Eyes have been on the “Omega” block that will be setting up out in the Atlantic, which if it happens, will keep the storm from making the traditional “right turn” and head East, out to sea.
> Rick, I’m about 70 miles south of you, a bit East of Worcester. Can I park my motorhome in your driveway? 😉
I think it will fill up my driveway. I could ask the owner of a car shop across the street if you could park there. If your motorhome blows over he might be able to get back upright. 🙂
I’m skipping http://www.sneweatherconf.org/index.shtml this year (this Saturday). I suspect the weather briefing at the start of the conference will be better attended than usual. Matt and NECN weather folk are often there, as the conference is in Canton, not too far from NECN. Also, “A special keynote speaker will be Dr. Greg Forbes, Severe Weather Expert from The Weather Channel in Atlanta, GA, barring any severe weather outbreak at the end of October!” Oops.
The ECWWF is the only model sophisticated enough to forecast, in advance, the Omega Block over the Canadian Maritimes and a energetic Tropical/Baroclinic “perfect storm”. Big disaster possible for the Northeast.
u.k.(us) says:
October 24, 2012 at 6:04 pm
H.R. says:
===========================
Thank you. Sandy’s track will be perfectly accurate by election day (U.S.). :o)
What’s it been, 5 yrs since any hurricane landfall? (Ignoring Irene, as she deserves). It’s been saving up for a big one.
Irene wasn’t a hurricane by the time she got to us, but still produced major damage in New England. Sandy won’t be a hurricane either, from the looks of her, but based on last year’s experience, I’m not sure that provides much comfort.
This is a pretty amazing graphic of the GFS models…take a look at the size of this thing when it converges.
http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/gfs.html
JimB
Cliff Mass has a good discussion of model forecasts.
Our models..both high res and ensembles..indicate there is a real threat to the U.S., from roughly Virginia to New England. Folks in that region should pay close attention to the forecasts–which will get more certain as we get closer to landfall. Not too soon to think about preparation. There is still considerable uncertainty–and next week we could see anything from a catastrophic storm to nothing. There is considerable chance of a serious landfall since our best model is going that way and BOTH U.S. and ECMWF ensemble systems showing a considerable number of forecasts with that solution.
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2012/10/will-hurricane-francis-make-landfall-on.html
The MSM is picking up the story since the potential impact on the northeast is substantial if the remnants of Sandy converge with the cold trough.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49546844/ns/weather
Matt Skaggs said:
“…ECMWF is the gold standard and the GFS is far behind…”
Recently there doesn’t seem to be a huge difference between ECMWF’s IFS and NOAA’s GFS.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/models.asp
This year, in particular, GFS has been a good hurricane tracker. For example, it consistently predicted a westerly track for Isaac towards Mississippi and Louisiana when other models were predicting Florida. GFS outputs are public domain, so more widely used than the very proprietary IFS.
Jim Butler said:
“Eyes have been on the “Omega” block that will be setting up out in the Atlantic, which if it happens, will keep the storm from making the traditional “right turn” and head East, out to sea.”
Where is this omega block? I don’t see it. But we do see a high pressure dome over the mid-Atlantic coast, which seems to be keeping Sandy further out to sea:
HPC analysis:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfcloop/ussatsfc_loopb.html
water vapor loop:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html
Dave Tolleris of Weather Risk (wxrisk.com) is very accurate for the mid atlantic. He has called most of the snow storms dead on the money. And he is looking for the western track. The other sites are averaging the American and European models to push it out to sea, but Dave is saying the European model is the accurate one. And that one is bullseyeing the Mid Atlantic.
The EURO model has this combining with a strong cold front out of the midwest/canada and turning into a “Perfect Storm”, like the one from that the same named movie was based on.
The vile weather channel crew is all upset about a Cat1 hurricane possibly turning westward toward the east US coast — it’s “never happened before!!!!”
Utter bull-fritters. Hazel, Hugo, Francis, & Isabel come to mind w/o even looking up records. Jim Cantory should be ashamed working for such an organization.
philjourdan said:
“… Dave [Tolleris] is saying the European model is the accurate one. And that one is bullseyeing the Mid Atlantic.”
Tolleris (at wxrisk.com) says “It is a basic law of physics and weather that you CANNOT have two large enormous Low pressure areas located in close proximity to each other. For some reason that we cannot quite figure out the GFS seems to have problems understanding that basic laws of the weather physics.”
Well, that’s wrong. Two large low-pressure storms in close proximity tend to spiral towards each other and merge. It’s called the Fujiwhara Effect and follows from the laws of physics.
I’m pretty sure GFS can handle that because, like all data assimilation models, it incorporates the seven primitive equations that govern the evolution of the atmospheric processes (Bjerknes, 1904) which includes all of the applicable laws of physics:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primitive_equations
Johanus – I appreciate your critique or Dave Tolleris. However “close” is a subjective term, so what you think is close may not be what he is referring to.
I was not evaluating his narrative (but do enjoy reading them), only reporting on his accuracy. And he has beaten everyone in forecasting storms in this area for the past 5 years (that I have been following him). That includes NOAA, NWS and all the local pretty boy forecasters. He may be wrong (and I really hope he is), but I cannot wait for him to be wrong. I have to plan on him being correct.
Models are all tightening up…looks like for now it’s headed straight for Long Island. Given that the strongest winds will be on the Northeast edge of the storm…R.I., Cape Cod, and most of Ct and Mass are going to be pretty exciting places to be come Monday.
Also look how long she holds onto the Cat 1 status…all the way into Monday now.
Anyone want to go deep sea fishing Monday?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201218_5day.html
As of now, the storm center is due to smack into New Jersey around late Tuesday morning. Batten down the hatches! Have to secure all the breakable/flyable bric-a-brac now.
so is it hitting raleigh nc
“East Coast Told to Beware of ‘Frankenstorm'” http://www.cnbc.com/id/49555055
While not able to predict storm behaviour precisely, “Meteorologists say it is likely to cause $1 billion in damages.”
Can we look forward to damage dollar amounts with all forecasts now?
Bring on the snow in the Mid-Atlantic region. Bright red color on white snow is tenderloin in the oven. A Men!!!
Lesson learnt from Hazel?
WOCN31 CWHX 252345Tropical cyclone information statement issued by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada
At 9:00 PM ADT Thursday 25 October 2012
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
=new= Nova Scotia
=new= Prince Edward Island
=new= New Brunswick
=new= Southern Quebec
=new= Southern Ontario.
For hurricane Sandy.
The next statement will be issued by 9:00 AM ADT.
This is a preliminary information statement to discuss the
Potential impact of hurricane Sandy in Canada.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
Hurricane Sandy nearly reached Major hurricane status last night
As it approached Cuba. The hurricane will be moving through the
Bahamas with winds in excess of 140 km/h tonight and Friday. During
the weekend Sandy is forecast to track northward while remaining at
or near hurricane strength. Sandy will begin to lose some of its
tropical characteristics early in the new week, it will however
remain a large and powerful cyclone as it shifts toward the East
Coast of the United States.
Sandy will quite likely impact parts of Eastern Canada early next
week. The track and intensity will, as always, depend on many
changing factors over a period of several days. Thus, it is too
early to meaningfully state how the storm will affect particular
areas. At this point in time we encourage consulting the forecasts
periodically during the next few days.
Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.
END/ROBICHAUD/COUTURIER
Inform the public.
Hmmm…Hundreds of thousands of Blue State voters lose power and suffer flooding just days before the Presidential election. Bad weather always suppresses Dem turnout, Dems cry foul when e.g. Scott Brown picks up his Senate seat again or Linda McMahon surprises up in Connecticut. This storm could produce far nastier damage than just the infrastructure being pummeled.
Reblogged this on Lyn Leahz and commented:
Hurricane Sandy, will it be as bad as they think?
Mike;
from your kb to God’s paddle. Go, Sandy!
Storm Sandy is sent on it’s way! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kY6uw6h2i0
The European model (ECMWF) shows Sandy passing right over western MD after it turns NW. American models are GFS. Look way down the page @ model animations:
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/
Wet snow is a possibility.
Looks like Matt is calling for strongest winds on the East coast to be Boston area…and is also predicting major prolonged power outages.
Well I wasn’t too far off. Looks like Cape May / Atlantic City with the front right quadrant hitting NE NJ and NYC.