From the University of Cape Town comes some bad news for global warming alarmists, Malaria deaths may soon be a thing of the past and their attempts to link such deaths to global warming will evaporate if this cure holds up in clinical trials. Of course it never did anyway: Another alarming climate myth bites the dust – mosquito borne malaria does NOT increase with temperature
So if this is a real cure, no more cushy grants for Michael Mann to study Malaria and AGW then, see Mann’s 1.8 million Malaria grant – ‘where do we ask for a refund’? The most amazing part is the research is only 18 months old….so I expect it will be given an even more rigorous clinical review. (h/t to WUWT reader Jason) – Anthony
African research identifies strong candidate for possible single-dose malaria cure
28 August 2012
A compound discovered by a UCT drug discovery programme has been selected by MMV for its potent activity against multiple points in parasite’s lifecycle
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| Big news: Prof Kelly Chibale (centre), here with Minister Naledi Pandor, speaks about the compound MMV390048 that he and international collaborators hope will lead to the development of a single-dose treatment for malaria. | Panel report: Dr Tim Wells, Prof Kelly Chibale, Minister Naledi Pandor, Dr Max Price and Dr Richard Gordon of the Technology Innovation Agency address the media at a press conference where they announced the development of the new compound. |
A recently discovered compound – named MMV390048 – from the aminopyridine class not only has the potential to become part of a single-dose cure for all strains of malaria, but might also be able to block transmission of the parasite from person to person, according to a research collaboration involving the Medicines for Malaria Venture (MMV), based in Switzerland, and the Drug Discovery and Development Centre (H3-D) at UCT.
This was announced at UCT today.
On the basis of initial results it was selected by MMV for further development – making it the first compound researched on African soil to enter preclinical development in partnership with MMV.
An African solution to save lives
Naledi Pandor, the Minister of Science & Technology, said: “This is a significant victory in the battle to alleviate the burden of disease in the subcontinent. Clearly the war on this disease is not yet won, but I am excited by the role that our excellent scientists have played in this milestone in finding a potential cure for malaria and possibly preventing its transmission. Congratulations to Professor Kelly Chibale and all involved. This is evidence of the world-class science being done in South Africa and the continent, and of the power of continental and international scientific collaboration in the multidisciplinary approaches that are essential in addressing the societal challenges of our time.”
Dr Max Price, the vice-chancellor of UCT, said: “H3-D was founded at UCT in 2010 for this very purpose: to develop African expertise towards solving the health problems that beset the developing world. We trust this clinical candidate is the first of many contributions Professor Chibale and his team will be making to the advancement of international medicine.”
H3-D identified a molecule, code named MMV390048, which was selected in July 2012 by MMV’s Expert Scientific Advisory Committee for further development. The promising new compound shows potent activity against multiple points in the malaria parasite’s lifecycle. This means it not only has the potential to become part of a single-dose cure for malaria but might also be able to block transmission of the parasite from person to person.
The aminopyridine series was initially identified by Griffith University scientists in Australia as part of MMV’s extensive malaria screening campaign of around 6 million compounds. A team of scientists from H3-D, led by UCT Professor Kelly Chibale, further scrutinised and explored the antimalarial potential of the series. With parasitological, pharmacological and contract chemistry support from the Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Switzerland), the Centre for Drug Candidate Optimization at Monash University (Australia) and Syngene (India) respectively, the H3-D team selected the most promising compounds from the series to be optimised and retested.
In just 18 months the team had identified and developed a candidate suitable for preclinical development.
Equipping the next generation of African scientists
“We are very excited that this promising compound, researched by African scientists, has been selected by MMV for further development,” said Chibale, the founder and director of H3-D. “This is truly a proud day for African science and African scientists. Our team is hopeful that the compound will emerge from rigorous testing as an extremely effective medicine for malaria – a disease that accounts for 24% of total child deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. What is more, H3-D and MMV achieved MMV390048 as a clinical candidate in record time. In the process we have developed a unique model for successful technology platforms, and generic modern pharmaceutical industry expertise and skills, to discover drugs in potentially any disease area in Africa.”
Dr Tim Wells, MMV’s Chief Scientific Officer, said: “This is a great achievement and an excellent example of the quality of research that can be fostered in Africa. We look forward to seeing more exciting compounds emerge from Kelly’s team and are proud to be collaborating with H3-D; not only is it conducting excellent science today, but it is also providing world-class training for the next generation of African scientists.”
What is so unique and exciting about MMV390048
- It is very potent: it displayed a complete cure of animals infected with malaria parasites in a single dose given orally, and thus has the potential to cure millions of people.
- It is active against a wide panel of resistant strains of the malaria parasite.
- Developing the drug has made possible the training of more than 10 local scientists and cemented a strong relationship with an international partner.
- The clinical candidate is in line to enter clinical trials in late 2013.
View a video of Prof Kelly Chibale speaking about H3-D.
Mr. Watts, the question these days is what is going on in the Arctic, Please answer. Epidemics might be of interest, but you are supposed to be interested in climate.
Hooray! Real science undoing the damage brought by Rachel Carson and her unfounded war on DDT. Silent Spring has cost enough lives.
It is ignorant to associate a hypothetical warming with increases in vector populations and/or infectiousness. The Lyme tick Ixodes lifecycle is so exquisitely tuned, across years, generations and stages, that warming and or cooling have little effect compared with daylight hours mediated diapause and growth rate function of temperature. In the paleartic, Ixodes are prevalent 10° farther north than in the neartic.
Francois: you are a bit late to the party. Anthony has already addressed the issue of Arctic ice.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/27/sea-ice-news-volume-3-number-11-part-2-other-sources-show-no-record-low/
Please pay attention.
Doug Huffman, it is not so much the lifecycle of the insect vector, but the ability of the pathogen to traverse its own temperature dependent lifecycle in that vector. For example, there are mosquitoes in the arctic, and avian malaria parasites are moving northward in bird populations that have no innate immune status against malaria. Think small pox and the American indians. The environmental temperature bottleneck for the malaria parasite is the time it takes to traverse its lifecycle in the mosquito, and increasing environmental temperature reduces this time such that the parasite can expand its range.
And Robin, mosquitoes were becoming resistant to DDT by the 1960s.
Good point – this would be like funding a number of groups to try different approaches to dealing with cancer. What a waste of money when one of them might find a cure!
Wow. That is some really great news. Especially for some folks that live in certain areas of the globe. Way cool!
Good news!
something to eliminate parasites… Hmmm… Does it come in anti-wind creep strain? I need a few gallons
francois says:
August 30, 2012 at 9:58 am
Mr. Watts, the question these days is what is going on in the Arctic, Please answer. Epidemics might be of interest, but you are supposed to be interested in climate.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Since when francois do you get to decide what Mr. Watts is supposed to be interested in?
For the record, there were two threads on arctic ice on the 27th and another thread on the 29th regarding the manner in which heat gets stored in water below the ice and how this affects ice over all. That’s not enough for you?
“It is active against a wide panel of resistant strains of the malaria parasite.”
So it’s not working against all of them? That may mean it’s only matter of time until the resistant ones prevail…
francois says:
August 30, 2012 at 9:58 am
Mr. Watts, the question these days is what is going on in the Arctic, Please answer. Epidemics might be of interest, but you are supposed to be interested in climate.
_______________________________
Read the headline banner.
It is Anthony’s site so he gets to say what he wants to publish not you and he often publishes various items of interest.
Thank you Anthony for bringing this very important breakthrough to our attention. I an old enough to remember the polio vaccine breakthrough. I had classmates with polio some of whom died so this really strikes a resonating cord.
We have had a cure for Malaria since 1995 which has been used by Malawi and by hundreds of thousands of people around the world … me included! The fact that mainstream medicine chooses to ignore it is a question for them to answer ,but would suggest since it is a very common substance there is no money to be made! Google Jim Humble!
I most sincerely hope that this is as claimed. My father contracted malaria in Burma (look it up) during WWII and had recurring attacks during his life.
This sounds very promising, but also sounds like it is still early in the research & development cycle. Here’s to continued success with their work!
“From the University of Cape Town comes some bad news for global warming alarmists, Malaria deaths may soon be a thing of the past …”
Anthony, name someone that wishes malaria deaths.
Give us a name.
REPLY: Ah, I see. Your ploy is to put words in my mouth not said nor implied. My point is that Malaria death statistics are used to hype of ‘malaria spread/increase is caused by AGW’ and there are plenty of bogus examples of that, see the link in the first paragraph. Another alarming climate myth bites the dust – mosquito borne malaria does NOT increase with temperature
– Anthony
Tom T: In the 1930’s between one in five and one in ten Siberians north of the 50th parallel between the Ob and the Yenissey Rivers had malaria, p.244, Biodiversity of Malaria in the World,
Jean Mouchet, Pierre Carnevale, Sylvie Manguin.
It was pretty cold there long before evil humans had warmed the globe.
Steve East 10:34am:
I accepted your invitation to google Jim Humble. It seems he markets, as a cure for practically everything, a mixture of Sodium Chlorite and citrus juice which is banned in Canada, and which has been described by USA and Australian authorities as industrial bleach. There are others on this site far more chemically knowledgeable than I am who could tell you why this is more likely to be a scam than anything else.
“… transmission of the parasite from person to person.”?????
The parasite is transmitted from person to mosquito, and then from mosquito to person. Except for blood transfusions from infected persons to the uninfected, it seems unlikely that any effort is necessary to block person to person transmission.
“From the University of Cape Town comes some bad news for global warming alarmists, Malaria deaths may soon be a thing of the past and their attempts to link such deaths to global warming will evaporate if this cure holds up in clinical trials. ”
OK, then name an “alarmist” that will view it as bad news that they can now longer link malarial deaths to global warming.
Name just one.
I suspect they all would view the eradication of malaria as a GOOD THING.
““… transmission of the parasite from person to person.”
It was short-hand, an oversight omission of the word “mosquito”. What they are referring to is the ability of the drug to kill the stages of the parasite in human blood that transmit to mosquitoes.
TomT,
The same alarmist crowd that mistakenly believes that the current Arctic sea ice cycle is bad, and therefore cheers the decline in ice are the same reprobates that love malaria deaths. They believe it validates their belief system, and they could not care less about humanity.
An empirical quantitative framework for the seasonal population dynamics of the tick Ixodes ricinus by S.E Randolph, R. M. Green, A. N. Hoodless, M. F. Peacey in International Journal for Parasitology 32 (2002) 979-989. References include in particular ‘Diapause and biological rhythms in ticks’ by Belozerov, V. N. in Physiology of Ticks, Obenchain, F.D. and Galun, R. eds (Pergamon)
Kasuha says:
August 30, 2012 at 10:26 am
“It is active against a wide panel of resistant strains of the malaria parasite.”
So it’s not working against all of them? That may mean it’s only matter of time until the resistant ones prevail…
==========================================
Let’s not bother then, is that what you are saying?
Navy Bob, from that same page 244, “This pandemic was particularly severe in the more temperate regions, although the cold regions were not spared.”
And what if those cold regions become more temperate?
Hmmm, let me check that claim with the world’s best central authority on the subject of endemic malaria, called the “World Health Organization”.
Link: http://www.who.int/malaria/publications/country-profiles/en/index.html
Smokey, name someone that is cheering the decline in ice. My reading of the ice blogs is that they are alarmed, and that they believe it a tragedy.
You just can’t keep good Africans down….can ya?
Good news!
TomT-I have a close friend in public health and Africa was her beat for years. We have had many conversations about the lives she believes the DDT ban has cost in Africa.
And Rachel Carson actually comes up fairly frequently in my tiptoe through the footnotes investigations of what is really going on in the natural sciences, the social sciences, and education. You would be surprised at what gets confessed based on an assumption that only fellow converts will ever read the report or document. Then you follow those footnotes . . .
TomT
You are really cluttering up this thread with a series of comments that seem designed to prove that you are being willfuly obtuse. While I do not presume to speak for others, you have made your point with me and no further evidence seems necessary. Point accepted.
TomT says:
August 30, 2012 at 11:20 am
‘And what if those cold regions become more temperate?’
Is your chain of reasoning as follows:
Cold regions could become temperate due to global warming.
Global warming is caused by man-made CO2.
Ban/drastically reduce CO2 or people in the temperate regions will start dying of malaria.
If it is, I think you have unwittingly demonstrated precisely why Mr Watts published this thread.
TomT says:
August 30, 2012 at 10:20 am
And Robin, mosquitoes were becoming resistant to DDT by the 1960s.
I have heard this from other commentors on other sites, but never seen a link to proof. Have always wondered if it is brought up to derail the accusation that the ban killed more people than the world wars. I always accepted the party line till the internet led me to evidence that the whole thing was political. Became very angry that human life was considered of such little value that mere accusations and suppostitions were enough to justify the ban. Much like what is happening with GW,
If this new medicine is effective it will be a godsend, but will not absolve those people who so dismissed the human consequences as a sad nessessity.
TomT: As pointed out by others, malaria epidemics occured inside the arctic circle, ergo, there is no temperature blockage to the spread.
Your:
And Robin, mosquitoes were becoming resistant to DDT by the 1960s.
Not quite correct. Some insects were becoming DDT averse. In malaria prevention, this should be quite effcetive. Paint a weak solution of DDT on the inside of housing, and the mosquito either dies after landing (which they do after feeding), or the DDT averse mosquito never enters. In either case, the spread of malaria is stopped.
As for your other contention, that “alarmists” would welcome a cure? Well, “alarmists” like Greenpeace, WWF etc, all oppose the use of DDT, even in small amounts painted on walls.
Several million people MORE die per year now, due to the DDT bans, than before the bans.
Draw your own conclusions.
Once they have cracked malaria, can they have a go at dengue fever please? I’ve just got over a dose of that.
Anthony, your previous post on malaria temperature and temperature is based upon a study performed with a rodent malaria parasite, Plasmodium yoelli. This parasite needs cooler temperatures for transmission, lower temperatures than for the human malaria parasites, Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. The rodent malaria model is great for many studies on human malaria, but transmission temperature is not one of them. To extrapolate to global warming, as you have done, is premature without a strong dose of caveat.
Seems likely to me this specific MMV’s amino-pyridine conformation’s amino acid residue(s) docks at the malaria protozoa’s homologue of the potassium (K) voltage channel to (unlike the more researched 4-aminopyridine) foster excessive K+ outflow. When a cell has unblocked outbound K+ it leads to apoptosis (death) by internally inducing capsase cascades & internally breaking DNA. It bears elaborating that some K+ channel pore forming genes have been identified.
( for orientation see 2008 “Critical role of a K + channel in Plasmodium berghei transmission revealed by targeted gene disruption” …. http://www.pnas.org/content/105/17/6398.full)
Since effective MMV is a compound it probably has a molecular activator of the protein kinase C iso-zyme family (PKC). To be pro-apoptotic some specific variant iso-zyme of PKC must be engaged by a molecular component that will, via “g” protein signaling, increase outbound K+ – since there are variant iso-zymes of PKC which would otherwise inhibit apoptosis.
TomT,
Michael Mann sees pretty happy about it.
BTW, DDT was never banned globally, though that is a common misconception in so-called “skeptical” circles:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DDT
(emphasis mine)
“Criticism of restrictions on DDT use:
Critics claim that restricting DDT in vector control have caused unnecessary deaths due to malaria. Estimates range from hundreds of thousands,[115] to millions. Robert Gwadz of the National Institutes of Health said in 2007, “The ban on DDT may have killed 20 million children.”[116] These arguments have been dismissed as “outrageous” by former WHO scientist Socrates Litsios. May Berenbaum, University of Illinois entomologist, says, “to blame environmentalists who oppose DDT for more deaths than Hitler is worse than irresponsible.”[85] Investigative journalist Adam Sarvana and others characterize this notion as a “myth” promoted principally by Roger Bate of the pro-DDT advocacy group Africa Fighting Malaria (AFM).[117][118]
Criticisms of a DDT “ban” often specifically reference the 1972 US ban (with the erroneous implication that this constituted a worldwide ban and prohibited use of DDT in vector control). Reference is often made to Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring even though she never pushed for a ban on DDT. John Quiggin and Tim Lambert wrote, “the most striking feature of the claim against Carson is the ease with which it can be refuted.”[119] Carson actually devoted a page of her book to considering the relationship between DDT and malaria, warning of the evolution of DDT resistance in mosquitoes and concluding:
It is more sensible in some cases to take a small amount of damage in preference to having none for a time but paying for it in the long run by losing the very means of fighting [is the advice given in Holland by Dr Briejer in his capacity as director of the Plant Protection Service]. Practical advice should be “Spray as little as you possibly can” rather than “Spray to the limit of your capacity.”
.
A cure for malaria sounds good, but I’d rather not contract it in the first place. Last time I was in malaria country was forty years ago. We took chloroquine tablets on a weekly basis. They were as big as buttons and if you didn’t eat a big meal before taking it, you were going to have stomach cramps and diarrhea for a few days. Never contracted malaria.
@Smokey – No one “cheers the decline” in Arctic sea ice. Go read the comments on Nevens Arctic Sea Ice blog. Everyone is horrified. Non-skeptics anticipate large changes to weather patterns as a result of less ice in the summer, a disrupted jet stream and more blocking highs for example. That is climate change becoming weather becoming drought stricken crops and higher food prices.
If you think the current year-over-year changes in sea ice are a ‘cycle’, what is the period of this cycle? What are the highs and lows? What is the underlying physical process? What is the evidence? How big are the error bars? Decadal ice loss is accelerating, not decelerating.
From my perspective, the folks that could “care less about humanity” are the posters here that say “I wouldn’t mind it being warmer where I live” without thinking about their privileged position and the billions of people who don’t live where they live. It’s a smug, smarmy answer to a global concern. Apres moi, c’est deluge, baby, but I’m driving my SUV. As if ignorant provincialism was going to save us from World Government.
Steve Jones, the study on malaria transmission and temperature was conducted with the rodent malaria parasite model, Plasmodium yoelii. It is well known in the malaria research community that this parasite requires lower temperatures for transmission, such that malaria researchers thought it odd that it would be used as a model for temperature-dependent studies. The question was not addressed with the proper experimental system. To use Plasmodium yoelii on global warming commentary such as Anthony’s and yours is even more odd.
A co-worker and I caught this on Drudge this morning via Nat. Geo. This is Nobel worthy work in the extreme. I am crossing my fingers hoping that the rest of the clinical trials pass with flying colors.
Les Johnson, yes, malaria outbreaks occur in the north. But why are they “outbreaks” and not “endemic”? In Papua, New Guinea, why is malaria transmission less in the highlands? Same with Africa. Isn’t it a valid hypothesis to pose, and study with research, if change in climate will affect malarial endemicity?
dvunkannon,
Mann’s attitude toward declining sea ice is reminiscent of Phil Jones’ attitude when he heard of the death of the great John Daly. Plenty of others are cheering the [entirely natural] decline in Arctic ice. You can say they are “horrified”, but the truth is, they’re thrilled. It is the one [coincidental] prediction out of a raft of failed predictions that they can brag about.
What they cannot do is show that the Arctic is doing anything that is not completely normal and natural. And of course, there is no joy in the steadily increasing Antarctic ice.
Arctic ice cover today looks substantial compared with Arctic ice as recently as 1987. The alarmist crowd is running around in circles like Chicken Little, waving their arms and shouting, “The ice is disappearing!!”
But as we see, this is a natural and frequent occurrence. And in addition, no one is saying what the problem is. So let’s start with you. What’s the problem?
dvunkannon;
From my perspective, the folks that could “care less about humanity” are the posters here that say “I wouldn’t mind it being warmer where I live” without thinking about their privileged position and the billions of people who don’t live where they live. It’s a smug, smarmy answer to a global concern.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Perhaps the people who make such comments are simply better educated on the issues than you appear to be, and their comments aren’t smug and smarmy at all.
Anyone who delves into the physics of warming, by ANY driver, not just CO2, understands that the bulk of the warming is exhibited at night time lows, in winter, at high latitudes. Very little is exhibited by day time highs, in summer, at low latitudes. So, since most warming would happen where it is most beneficial, and very little where it would be actually harmful, those who wish for more warming where they live are wishing for fewer deaths from extreme cold (which outweigh deaths from extreme heat by hundreds to one or more), longer growing seasons, increased amounts of arable land, higher per hectare production of food, decreased heating fuel costs, improved engine efficiency, and many other very important benefits that would help sustain a larger and healthier human population world wise.
Now who is the smug, smarmy, uniformed one?
Les Johnson says:
August 30, 2012 at 11:40 am
TomT: As pointed out by others, malaria epidemics occured inside the arctic circle, ergo, there is no temperature blockage to the spread.
Your:
And Robin, mosquitoes were becoming resistant to DDT by the 1960s.
Not quite correct. Some insects were becoming DDT averse. In malaria prevention, this should be quite effcetive. Paint a weak solution of DDT on the inside of housing, and the mosquito either dies after landing (which they do after feeding), or the DDT averse mosquito never enters. In either case, the spread of malaria is stopped.
Which was never banned and still continues. What was banned was the widespread use of DDT in agriculture which had the side-effect of rapidly introducing immunity to DDT. Since there were many effective insecticides that could be used in agriculture it was more effective to restrict DDT for use in indoor vector control and thereby maintain its effectiveness in that role.
Why is it that as the hockey stick went up malaria went down? 😉
As far as Finland is concerned malaria is just a thing of the past. 😉
Oh and this:
Because of the self-serving Rachel Carson and her ilk, this beneficial product was withdrawn from the market. There are no reports of any ill effects from the wallpaper, and it prevented malaria infections.
TomT, Malaria was endemic in both temperate and sub-arctic areas of the north until relatively recently, as in less than two hundred years ago. The change was not temperature: it was the combination of proper water treatment and the draining of stagnant standing water in proximity to human habitation.
Africa’s water supply is generally still untreated and filled with all sorts of nasties, which is why most of the continent is still a hotbed of otherwise easily cured diseases that have passed to history in the west.
TomT: your
Les Johnson, yes, malaria outbreaks occur in the north. But why are they “outbreaks” and not “endemic”?
They were endemic. The worst was in Siberia, in the 20s.
From Dr. Paul Reiter:
In fact, the most catastrophic epidemic on record anywhere in the world occurred in the Soviet Union in the 1920s, with a peak incidence of 13 million cases per year, and 600,000 deaths. Transmission was high in many parts of Siberia, and there were 30,000 cases and 10,000 deaths due to falciparum infection (the most deadly malaria parasite) in Archangel, close to the Arctic circle. Malaria persisted in many parts of Europe until the advent of DDT. One of the last malarious countries in Europe was Holland: the WHO finally declared it malaria-free in 1970.
Interesting. Several of us answered TomT, with similar answers, and even the same refernces, all unbenownest to the others, as we were all in the queue.
You don’t come here much do you. The Arctic was covered a few days ago by Mr. Watts. Secondly, look at the very top of this page, just above the navigation bar, and tell me what you read.
Promising, but early. Many promising drugs are rejected in the final tests.
Jimbo, from the same article that you cited on malaria in northern regions:
“If the female gets gametocytes from infective humans, the development of Plasmodium can only continue indoors, in heated buildings.”
Thus, it is an indoor disease in northern regions. In many poor regions of the world there is no indoor heating. There are no screens or glass on the windows.
@Smokey – if you’ve got quotes from Mann saying he’s happy about malaria deaths and Arctic sea ice decline, please provide them.
“the truth is, they’re thrilled” – How does your ESP work so well through that tinfoil hat???
Declining over 33 years is normal and natural is assuming an underlying physical process. What is it? What is the evidence? What are the error bars? Surely you have something better than one photo…
If it were a natural and frequent occurrence, the NorthEast Passage would have been open to the Russians the way it is today. On a periodic cycle, of course. Any evidence of that? With error bars?
What is the problem? Climate change becomes weather change, weather change affects people. Jet stream disruption, blocking highs, yada yada yada. Ask Anthony about all that, he can tell you what happens when the jet stream jerks around. It isn’t pretty for folks who need predictable weather patterns, like farmers.
The difference in albedo between water and ice would lead you to expect that the Arctic will be absorbing more heat during the summer months than otherwise would be the case. I don’t think this very unevenly distributed influx will radiate back into space, leaving no effect. Do you?
“Steve East” quacked on August 30, 2012 at 10:34 am:
Done!
Git them shotguns ready, boys, I’s hear quacks!
dvunkannon,
Thank you for your concise explanation of the serious problem we face regarding melting ice: “yada yada yada”. I’ll have to remember that.
Jimbo says:
August 30, 2012 at 1:36 pm
TomT says:
August 30, 2012 at 11:02 am
OK, then name an “alarmist” that will view it as bad news that they can now longer link malarial deaths to global warming.
Name just one.
Al Gore, Pachauri, George Monbiot
Al Gore for example has made heavy financial investments – does he have anything to lose? Think about it.
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Add in:
The entire wind power industry
The entire solar power industry
The entire biofuel industry
And, when strong evidence is published showing that the CAGW meme is wrong, do we see alarmists saying things like “whew, glad to learn I was wrong”? Or are they more than likely to grasp at the tiniest of indications that they might be right and scream with zeal “see, I was right!”?
TomT: your
Thus, it is an indoor disease in northern regions. In many poor regions of the world there is no indoor heating. There are no screens or glass on the windows.
That would not explain the 13,000,000 cases per year, or the 600,000 fatalities in the worst recorded malaria outbreak. Which was in Siberia BTW.
As the epidemic was spread over a decade, its unlikely that mosquitoes developed and lived indoors during the winters (and along with them the parasite). The mosquitos, and the parasite, would simply go dormant during the winter.
dvunkannon;
The difference in albedo between water and ice would lead you to expect that the Arctic will be absorbing more heat during the summer months than otherwise would be the case. I don’t think this very unevenly distributed influx will radiate back into space, leaving no effect. Do you?
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Oh my. Do you suppose that the exposed water surface radiates to space the same amount or less than the snow and ice would? The opposite happens. The amount of energy radiated upward goes up, WAY up. Which results in net cooling. Which results in ice forming again at some point. I am constantly amazed at the ability of you and others like you to fixate on a single parameter and assume that this is the only parameter that makes any difference to the system as a whole.
TomT: I see that you do not acknowledge your error in claiming that there are only “outbreaks” in high latitudes, and malaria does not become endemic in these regions.
francois is typical of the anti-science group think that has no interest in anything other than their strange religious belief that humanity should suffer for atonement. The rest of us are cheering on the triumphs likely to come from real science. This is extremely important news that is rightly featured on WUWT. It’s good to see someone undoing the damage done by religious activists like Rachel Carson who did so much damage to people’s health with her ‘Silent Spring’. Around here, Spring is exceptionally noisy.
Mr. Watts is giving us all of the news on what is going on in the arctic, We can read it daily.
dvunkannon, I live in a malaria infested country. I almost died of it 30 years ago. Ditto my daughter yet I remain a hardened sceptic of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Runaway Global Warming speculation.
So climate is not that important then. By the way what ended malaria in Canada, Finland, England etc? Should the same techniques be used in Africa? If not why not?
TomT: Albedo actually decreases as ice melts, due to increased cloud cover.
While there are reservations in the paper (using models), measured data shows a negative feedback with a reduction in sea ice.
“”Using satellite data of the 1982–98 period in the area north of 60°N, Wang and Key (2003) found a significant negative trend in the surface albedo in the Arctic during the spring and summer. The authors claim that the expected enhancement of the surface net radiation imbalance was reduced or even cancelled out by a concurrent increase in cloud amount, as well as more frequent occurrence of liquid phase clouds.””
http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~irina/work/paper_ipcc/Gorodetskaya_etal2008_ipcc.pdf
Liquid phase clouds are important, as these types have a higher albedo than ice crystal clouds.
From the conclusion:
Although based on a limited time series, these results suggest that changes in Arctic sea ice are compensated by changes in cloud cover, perhaps, as a result of enhanced evaporation from the sea surface, therefore, leaving the TOA energy budget unchanged. The implications are that any ice-albedo feedback could be dampened because of increased cloud cover and such responses should be sought in climate simulations.”
http://enso.larc.nasa.gov/ceres/pub/journals/Kato.etal.GRL.06.pdf
These authors also show a that net increase in shortwave radiation at the surface, is reduced by increasing cloud cover.
Wang, X., and J. Key (2005b), Arctic surface, cloud and radiation properties
based on the AVHRR polar pathfinder dataset: Part II. Recent trend,
J. Clim., 15, 2575– 259
Over the measured period, there was a statistically insignificant decrease in reflected SW radiation (2.0 ± 2.0 Wm2), which matched well with the calculated changes (2.2 Wm2)
Reduced ice causes more cloud, and the resluting albedo change mitigates warming in the arctic.
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2011JD015804.shtml
That was an unfortunate spelling error….”resluting” should be “resulting”….
The former might be more interesting, though.
One of the most treasured books in my bookshelf is “The Sea Around Us” by Rachel L. Carson. I also have her “The Edge of the Sea.” She writes beautifully and many “serious” novelists could take lessons from her.
I’ve never read “Silent Spring.” I can’t comment on the merits of her arguments against DDT because I don’t know what she said. Perhaps she was 100 per cent totally utterly and completely wrong, as wrong as Einstein when he said “God does not play dice with the universe.”
But I would be surprised to learn that she acted “with malice aforethought.” Many who knew her described her as an exceptionally fine person. The cheap and nasty ad homs thrown at her in this thread only make me think less of the contributor.
TomT says:
August 30, 2012 at 1:34 pm
Jimbo, from the same article that you cited on malaria in northern regions:
“If the female gets gametocytes from infective humans, the development of Plasmodium can only continue indoors, in heated buildings.”
Thus, it is an indoor disease in northern regions. In many poor regions of the world there is no indoor heating. There are no screens or glass on the windows.
———————–
TomT, during the building of the Rideau Canal, in the sweltering tropics of Ontario, Canada, in the colder 19th century, an estimated 500 workers died of malaria. I was not aware that screened windows had then been invented, nor that canal-building was an indoor pursuit.
http://www.rideau-info.com/canal/history/locks/malaria.html
francois says:
August 30, 2012 at 9:58 am
Nonsense. This website is about anything of interest. All you have to do is read the banner at the top of the page.
It’s too bad the anti-science crowd got rid of DDT years ago with the silliness published by Rachel Carson. Millions of lives would have been spared had DDT not been banned.
Same crowd is bringing us AGW.
francois says:
August 30, 2012 at 9:58 am
Mr. Watts, the question these days is what is going on in the Arctic, Please answer. Epidemics might be of interest, but you are supposed to be interested in climate.
======================================================================
Huh? You don’t think this potentionally very good news would or should be welcome here?
Look up “The Great Black Swamp”. The settlement of the area was held back by malaria. Strange that malaria was a problem in northeast Ohio and northwest Indiana before Man-Made Global Warming caused it to spread. It was settled after the swamps and wetlands were drained.
Imagine what the outcry from the Environmentalist (Does that mean they channel Gaia?) if we tried to drain an area 25 miles wide and 100 miles long today!
@ Jimbo
“So climate is not that important then. By the way what ended malaria in Canada, Finland, England etc? Should the same techniques be used in Africa? If not why not?”
The methods we used were draining swamps and large scale usage of insecticide. I know medicine and nets are being provided in Africa, but I don’t know what large scale efforts are being undertaken.
This is wonderful news. I really hope it is a cure. Seems to have been some debate in this thread about who would be against this. Especially who in the warmist crew. Well, here’s my answer. I reckon the ones who believe that there are too many people on the planet and numbers need to be reduced drastically (along with the CO2 emissions and related de-industrialisation thing). They are called “greenies.” Against their evil creed, I say, let’s feed the people, let’s cure disease. The benefits of industrialisation should be provided to all We’ve changed our environment for the better of humanity, let them change theirs likewise. And help them to, out of human compassion.
This is a wonderful thread. Hopeful news regarding malaria, plus an opportunity for warmist trolls and thread-jackers to come here and parade their ignorance and inability to admit when they’re wrong. One of them even quoted Wankerpedia! The benefits go on and on.
Malaria was an important issue to connect with AGW. If successfully linked to warming then deaths due to malaria could be directly attributed to AGW. It is vital this counter, begins ticking up, long promised (predicted) fatalities or people will begin to wonder… what the big deal, with warming actually is?
It is exactly, the same reason and motivation, behind the attempt, to link hurricanes and droughts, with AGW. The body count must start. Arctic ice dips certainly will not do it. The agenda will sorely miss the malaria opportunity. GK
TomT says:
August 30, 2012 at 11:20 am
And what if those cold regions become more temperate?
======
Sure, if a cold place warms and the population increases by a factor of 10, you will get 10 times as much Malaria. And 10 times as much flu, colds, hiv, etc, etc.,
A cold climate prevents disease by driving people elsewhere. There is virtually no disease at the poles, while disease is very common at the equator. Given how disease free the poles are, why don’t more people live there?
“A total of 1,803 persons died of malaria in the western parts of Finland and in the south-western archipelago during the years 1751–1773
============
That must have been the years Finland invented windows and central heating.
Infected people cause Malaria. Mosquitoes are blamed, but without infected people nearby, there is no risk of malaria. A one treatment cure for Malaria would be HUGE.
The problem is that Malaria is hard to cure, so it is hard to eradicate from areas where medical facilities are less than world class. These are the poor countries of the earth, which are mostly the tropical countries, where the warm climate makes poverty survivable. Temperate climates kill the poor, which tends to restrict these areas to the wealthy of the world, who have the resources to cure Malaria in their own peoples..
Steve Jones says:
August 30, 2012 at 11:20 am
Let’s not bother then, is that what you are saying?
==========================================
No, it’s you who said that.
What I’m saying is that they’re getting a bit overexcited about it. They haven’t won yet.
DDT was thought to be the ultimate weapon against malaria. Today, great deal of mosquito population is still resistant to DDT even after many years since it was last used against them.
Wonderful news. My Dad got Malaria in Korea during the war (note – not exactly a tropical location) and it dogged him for decades afterwards. Being a healthy young man with access to medical care, it didn’t kill him. Babies, children, the sick and the elderly are the ones who die most often in poor countries today.
Oh, and Tom T, I guess you have never seen the summer mosquito plagues in the high latitudes. Those suckers are enormous and come in swarms of thousands. It is not at all difficult to comprehend how malaria can be a major problem in these environments.
Kasuha: your
DDT was thought to be the ultimate weapon against malaria. Today, great deal of mosquito population is still resistant to DDT even after many years since it was last used against them.
This is wrong. The WHO (not the band, BTW), EDF and the Sierra Club all agree that DDT should be used to fight the insect vector. The WHO statement on Indoor Residual Spraying states explicitly that DDT is the most effective pesticide treatment.
http://whqlibdoc.who.int/hq/2011/WHO_HTM_GMP_2011_eng.pdf
DDT is still the most effective and cheapest form of vector control.
When writing about methods used to eradicate malaria, don’t overlook oiling of ponds and swamps. Application of a thin film of light oil on still bodies of water suffocates mosquito larvae. (I’m old enough that this was still common practice when I was a lad.)
Wikipedia mentions the practice in the article about DDT, just below the heading “Non-chemical vector control”:
Before DDT, malaria was successfully eradicated or curtailed in several tropical areas by removing or poisoning mosquito breeding grounds and larva habitats, for example by filling or applying oil to standing water.
The link is: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DDT
May I ask some stupid questions? If humanity got close to eradicating the anopheles mosquito, would it then be declared an endangered species? I want to save the polar bears but am I a hypocrite? What did I do to save the smallpox virus from extinction? Who said that humans are the sole arbiters of which life forms are allowed to survive?
Wiki says that malaria comes in five flavors. All five can cross the species barrier from the higher apes to humans. The malaria parasite needs two hosts: the female anopheles mosquito, and a human or ape. Herd immunity seems to be the answer.
Colonial said:
When writing about methods used to eradicate malaria, don’t overlook oiling of ponds and swamps. Application of a thin film of light oil on still bodies of water suffocates mosquito larvae. (I’m old enough that this was still common practice when I was a lad.)
——————————————-
Yep, I remember this being used in household rainwater tanks in the country when I was growing up – not for malaria (we didn’t have it) but just to control mosquitoes generally around the house. Kerosine was the oil of choice. It is 100% effective in a still, controlled environment such as a water tank, but I’m not sure how practical it is out in the open.
@davidmhoffer – If you have good statistics for deaths from extreme cold vs extreme heat, bring them on.
@Smokey – glad your focused on the important stuff. Now where are those Mann quotes on how happy he is about malaria deaths and declining sea ice? Where are the model, evidence, and error bars on the ‘natural cycle’ of Arctic sea ice that has previously opened the Northeast Passage to shipping?
@davidmhoffer – according to this idea that water cools more than ice, every square meter of open water, in every year, should have iced over again immediately and become colder than the ice next to it. Do you have a reference to a paper that explains this process? It would seem to be eminently testable and verifiable. And since the ice has been melting back further and further for 33 years, some even more powerful force must be to blame. What is that force?
dvunk: I have some excellent papers on cold and warm related mortality.
Oddly, the vast consensus is that cold events increase mortality, during and after the event.
Warm events only displaces mortality. That is, during the warm event, mortality goes up. After, the rate falls. Over the entire period, the mortality rate is about the same as prior to the warm event.
As an example, it is estimated that 25,000 to 35,000 die per year due to cold events and energy poverty, in the UK alone.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/298533.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/3226897.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/8442413.stm
These authors found, with adaptation, that warming in the warmest part of the year yielded an increase in mortality of 0.7 deaths per million, while warming in the coldest part of the year saw a decrease in mortality of 85 per million, for a lives saved to lives lost ratio of 121.4.
That is, 121.4 more lives are saved by warming, than taken by warming.
Christidis, N., Donaldson, G.C. and Stott, P.A. 2010. Causes for the recent changes in cold- and heat-related mortality in England and Wales. Climatic Change 102: 539-553.
These researchers say their results:
“”point to widely different impacts of cold and hot temperatures on mortality.””
“”hot temperature shocks are indeed associated with a large and immediate spike in mortality in the days of the heat wave,””
“”almost all of this excess mortality is explained by near-term displacement,””
“”in the weeks that follow a heat wave, we find a marked decline in mortality hazard, which completely offsets the increase during the days of the heat wave,””
“”there is virtually no lasting impact of heat waves on mortality.””
My emphasis.
In the cold, they found:
“”an immediate spike in mortality in the days of the cold wave,””
“”there is no offsetting decline in the weeks that follow,””
“”the cumulative effect of one day of extreme cold temperature during a thirty-day window is an increase in daily mortality by as much as 10%.””
“”this impact of cold weather on mortality is significantly larger for females than for males,””
“”for both genders, the effect is mostly attributable to increased mortality due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases.””
Further:
“”the aggregate magnitude of the impact of extreme cold on mortality in the United States is large,””
“”roughly corresponds to 0.8% of average annual deaths in the United States during the sample period.””
“”the average person who died because of cold temperature exposure lost in excess of ten years of potential life…””
While heat related fatalities lost a few days or week of potential life.
Further:
“”each year 4,600 deaths are delayed by the changing exposure to cold temperature due to mobility,””
“”3% to 7% of the gains in longevity experienced by the U.S. population over the past three decades are due to the secular movement toward warmer states in the West and the South, away from the colder states in the North.””
Reference
Deschenes, O. and Moretti, E. 2009. Extreme weather events, mortality, and migration. The Review of Economics and Statistics 91:659-681.”
I have 20 more, all in the same vein. Cold kills, warmth displaces mortality.
From the authors:
Our data suggest that any increases in mortality due to increased temperatures would be outweighed by much larger short term declines in cold related mortalities,
Annual heat related mortality was no greater in hot than in cold regions
Numbers of heat related deaths were always much smaller than cold related deaths
http://www.bmj.com/content/321/7262/670.full
These authors find that cold kills, warm does not:
“”with these analyses, we confirmed the results of other studies (Donaldson et al., 1998; Gyllerup, 2000; Mercer, 2003) that mortality was in inverse relation to air temperature.””
Toro, K., Bartholy, J., Pongracz, R., Kis, Z., Keller, E. and Dunay, G. 2010. Evaluation of meteorological factors on sudden cardiovascular death. Journal of Forensic and Legal Medicine 17: 236-242.
and these
Davis, R.E., P.C. Knappenberger, P.J. Michaels, and W.M. Novicoff, 2003. Changing heat-related mortality in the United States. Environmental Health Perspectives, 111, 1712–1718.
Kyselý, J., and E. Plavocá, 2012. Declining impacts of hot spells on mortality in the Czech Republic, 1986-2009: adaptation to climate change? Climatic Change, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0358-4
I have more, dvunk. Let me know when you get through this bunch.
Re Les Johnson: TomT: I see that you do not acknowledge your error in claiming that there are only “outbreaks” in high latitudes, and malaria does not become endemic in these regions.”
Les Johnson, there is a spectrum of endemicity, with holoendemic one extreme. Malaria in high latitudes was marked by outbreaks, which implies a lack of immunity in the population. That is, not holoendemic. I also commented on “indoor malaria” above, during the critical transmission stage of the parasite in the mosquito, the insect is indoors.
Now, when is Anthony going to acknowledge his vital error on his thread on temperature and mosquito transmission of the malaria parasite; namely, that the experiment was performed with Plasmodium yoelii, an inappropriate model system? Does he admit to error?
The decision to discontinue DDT use against malaria in the late 1960s was based upon many factors, and not just concern for the possible detrimental health effects of DDT. For instance, DDT was not working effectively, and mosquitoes were becoming resistant. WHO, Gates Foundation, etc, is now considering DDT, as well as other insecticides.
The meme that Rachel Carson has blood on her hands is a recent invention, and should be approached with great caution.
Johanna, re: ‘Oh, and Tom T, I guess you have never seen the summer mosquito plagues in the high latitudes. Those suckers are enormous and come in swarms of thousands. It is not at all difficult to comprehend how malaria can be a major problem in these environments.”
Johanna, yes, mosquitoes in the high latitudes number in the billions. But, the parasite needs to complete the mosquito stage of its lifecycle (ie. gametocyte>gamete>ookinete>oocyst>sporozoite>salivary gland sporozoite) within the period of time of the first and second mosquito blood meals, and this is temperature dependent. This restricts the ability of the parasite to transmit at higher latitudes, hence, “indoor malaria” transmission.
TomT: It was the largest outbreak of malaria in recorded history. Whether the entire population (holoendemic) is effected is moot. It is the largest outbreak in history. Admit your error and move on. Malaria is not bound by cold winter temperatures.
The mosquito does not live in the winter, even indoors. The mosquito does not migrate. Ergo, the malaria survives the winter, and not indoors.
And even in the tropics, most cases of malaria happen indoors, as the vector is most active at dusk and dawn, when people are in bed.
As for Carson? The inventor of DDT was credited with saving millions of people (a hundred million according one source) . Stopping the usage of DDT has killed millions of people. Whether it was by malice or good intentions is moot. We all know what the road to hell is paved with.
This author lists some of the malfeasance in her book.
http://reason.com/archives/2002/06/12/silent-spring-at-40/1
As for Anthony’s supposed error? You sound like a kid on playground. “He did it first, Mom!”
Grow up. Admit your error. And quit trying to sound like an epidemiologist.
TomT: One point I had meant to add, was that even in the tropics, the mosquito will land and rest after the first blood meal. This allows the parasite to go through the needed stages, before the next meal.
With DDT on the walls, it either dies on landing, or being DDT averse, leaves the dwelling and rests outside. The result is the same; reduced human transmission.
One other point is that in full summer, it is quite warm at night, even in sub-arctic climes. Anecdotally, in places like Norman Wells, in northern Canada, one cannot be very comfortable at night without an air conditioner.
Also, in our malaria awareness classes, we were taught to sleep in A/C cooled rooms, as it reduced the risk of infection.
From TomT on August 31, 2012 at 10:31 am:
Here Anthony Watts reported on a study involving Plasmodium yoelii which causes rodent malaria.
The title of the post was “Another alarming climate myth bites the dust – mosquito borne malaria does NOT increase with temperature”.
The article in Nature reporting on the study had this title:
I can see no “vital error” on Anthony Watts’ part as the post follows what the Nature piece says.
If there is any “vital error” the blame goes to the researchers and Nature for initially reporting it, not Anthony Watts.
So where is the “vital error” in what the researchers and Nature reported?
Re: “The mosquito does not live in the winter, even indoors.”
In high latitudes mosquitoes mostly overwinter as eggs.
Re: “Ergo, the malaria survives the winter, and not indoors.”
The malaria parasite does not infect mosquitoes in winter, it overwinters in human hosts.
Re: “As for Anthony’s supposed error?”
Yes. He should comment on how Plasmodium yoelii is a good model system for temperature-dependent transmission. I frequently use the rodent malaria model and mosquito transmission in my own malaria parasite research — Plasmodium yoelii is good for many things, but using it to comment on AGW is not one of them.
Re DDT. I agree that it is fantastic. My comment was that it was discontinued in the 1960s for several reasons. Respectfully, you should read histories that don’t have a modern political bent.
Re: “And quit trying to sound like an epidemiologist.”
Correct, I am not an epidemiologist. But I have a great interest in malaria, spanning 20 years. I think that AGW and malaria transmission is an open subject, and I am aware of arguments both for and against the impact. Highly worthy of research.
Re “Transmission of infectious parasites slows with rising temperatures, researchers find.”
See my post above. That study was done with the rodent malaria parasite, Plasmodium yoelii, which is known to transmit at lower temperatures than human malaria parasites. Researchers studying both human and rodent malaria parasite transmission to mosquitoes keep two insectories, one at a lower temperature. The data is valid, but comment on human malaria parasite transmission is not possible.
Les Johnson says:
August 31, 2012 at 3:51 am
DDT is still the most effective and cheapest form of vector control.
=============================================
I may agree on cheapest, but it is only effective if used against mosquitos which haven’t developed resistance to it yet – and if it is used carefully so that they don’t get chance to develop the resistance, too. It remains one of tools but it’s not the ultimate weapon anymore.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DDT#Effectiveness_of_DDT_against_malaria
There was another famous medicine with similar fate: penicillin. Yes, it’s still often used. But majority of bacteria types it was used against have already developed resistance to it, too.
“…what the Nature piece says…If there is any “vital error” the blame goes to the researchers and Nature for initially reporting it, not Anthony Watts.”
It would certainly be hilarious if Anthony believed everything that he reads in Nature. Skepticism should not be selective.
As Glenn Reynolds is wont to say, FASTER PLEASE.
From TomT on August 31, 2012 at 12:24 pm:
Here’s the paper:
Warmer temperatures reduce the vectorial capacity of malaria mosquitoes
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3367745/
Reading around, I find rodent malaria transmission to be a robust analogue to human malaria transmission, well respected with only limited exceptions. Your concept that work done with rodent malaria can’t be extended to human malaria is not valid, it’s even risible.
Further, I direct your attention to this earlier paper:
Influence of climate on malaria transmission depends on daily temperature variation
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2930540/
Basically, in the real world the temperature changes during the day. If you try to say X malaria transmits at Tx mean temperature while Y malaria transmits at Ty temperature, then say the mean temperature in this area is Ty so X will not be transmitting, you’re completely missing it when the daily temperature range includes both Tx and Ty.
The body temperature of a laboratory mouse is ~36.9°C (98.4°F). That’s close to the human temperature of 98.6°F although core temperature is higher. It thus follows that the difference in transmission temperatures must be small, with that amount well within the amount of expected daily temperature variation.
Thus while you may wish to claim that since the study used rodent malaria it is only applicable to the response of rodent malaria to global warming, it is manifestly obvious that the results extend to the response of human malaria as well.
TomT says:
August 31, 2012 at 11:07 am
Johanna, re: ‘Oh, and Tom T, I guess you have never seen the summer mosquito plagues in the high latitudes. Those suckers are enormous and come in swarms of thousands. It is not at all difficult to comprehend how malaria can be a major problem in these environments.”
Johanna, yes, mosquitoes in the high latitudes number in the billions. But, the parasite needs to complete the mosquito stage of its lifecycle (ie. gametocyte>gamete>ookinete>oocyst>sporozoite>salivary gland sporozoite) within the period of time of the first and second mosquito blood meals, and this is temperature dependent. This restricts the ability of the parasite to transmit at higher latitudes, hence, “indoor malaria” transmission.
——————————————————
Tom, it’s pretty simple. Malaria transmission needs two things: infected humans and anopheles mosquitoes. In the high latitudes, if you have infected humans and anopheles, it gets transmitted – and because of the vast numbers of mosquitoes in summer, it only takes a tiny percentage of them to go through the stages to transmit the disease.
Do you dispute the massive outbreaks that occurred in places like Siberia and Finland?
If I understand this research correctly, it has the potential to eradicate the infectious pool of humans, which not only greatly improves their quality of life, but also breaks the infection cycle. The reason endemic malaria has not recurred in places like Canada is because the pool of infectious people is no longer there. The mosquitoes most assuredly are.
@Les Johnson – thanks for the links. Let me focus on
http://www.bmj.com/content/321/7262/670.full
a – nowhere near support for David M Hoffer’s “deaths from extreme cold (which outweigh deaths from extreme heat by hundreds to one or more)”. But I sincerely appreciate having hard data to discuss. Too bad David hasn’t substantiated his claims.
b – It is great the west Europeans are so well prepared for extreme weather. How about Bangladeshis? Extreme weather to them is a shifted monsoon pattern and severity. The idea that global warming means it gets 2 degrees C warmer everywhere is laughably simplistic.
c – as I tried to point out to Smokey, a strong effect of declining Arctic sea ice could be colder Northern Hemisphere winters and blocking highs bringing cold snaps such we had over Europe last winter. So concern about the effects of global warming is concern for higher deaths from extreme cold in the NH, which you demonstrate is a significant problem.
Thanks again.
Dvunk: Please read more carefully. Your
nowhere near support for David M Hoffer’s “deaths from extreme cold (which outweigh deaths from extreme heat by hundreds to one or more)”.
In the BMJ paper, they say this:
Numbers of heat related deaths were always much smaller than cold related deaths
More to the point, this paper, previously posted, states a lives lost to cold vs warm ratio of 121.4. This backs David’s claims.
Christidis, N., Donaldson, G.C. and Stott, P.A. 2010. Causes for the recent changes in cold- and heat-related mortality in England and Wales. Climatic Change 102: 539-553.
The literature is almost unanimous; cold kills more than heat, regardless of the country.
Admit your error. Move on.
Kasuha: your
I may agree on cheapest, but it is only effective if used against mosquitos which haven’t developed resistance to it yet – and if it is used carefully so that they don’t get chance to develop the resistance, too. It remains one of tools but it’s not the ultimate weapon anymore.
According to the WHO, the EDF and the Sierra Club, DDT is a vital weapon in the fight against malaria.
It is also the only pesticide that is effective against strains of mosquito that have resistance to the pesticide, by invoking an aversion response in the vector.
dvunk: your
b – It is great the west Europeans are so well prepared for extreme weather. How about Bangladeshis? Extreme weather to them is a shifted monsoon pattern and severity.
Strawman argument. But let me answer it anyway. There is no data to suggest that the monsoon has shifted during the latest warming.
These authors looked at the 135 year history of rain fall in India.
From the consluion:
“”for the whole of India, no significant trend was detected for annual, seasonal, or monthly rainfall.””
Kumar, V., Jain, S.K. and Singh, Y. 2010. Analysis of long-term rainfall trends in India. Hydrological Sciences Journal 55: 484-496.
Note that they also stated that the IPCC had suggested that there would a reduction in the amount freshwater, impactinng agriculture. The authors decided to use data, not models.
or this:
Rainfall extremes in India show no trend in number or intensity over the last 50 years. The spatial variablity has increased, but not the number or intensity.
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1327.html
or this:
Rainfall in India shows no trend over the last century.
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2010JD014966.shtml
Admit your errors, and move on.
dvunk: your
The idea that global warming means it gets 2 degrees C warmer everywhere is laughably simplistic.
I am not sure where this comes from, but, the IPCC states that in a warming world, most of the warming would occur in the mid to high latitudes. Very little warming will occur in the tropics.
Dvunk: your
c – as I tried to point out to Smokey, a strong effect of declining Arctic sea ice could be colder Northern Hemisphere winters and blocking highs bringing cold snaps such we had over Europe last winter. So concern about the effects of global warming is concern for higher deaths from extreme cold in the NH, which you demonstrate is a significant problem.
So, which is it? Cold does not kill, or it does? You ignore the numbers I posted on the ratio of cold to warm mortality, then you suggest that global warming will bring cold events, which will increase mortality. Please try to be consistent.
As for your argument? Gloabl Warming conditions have been known for a long time to bring zonal circulation to the jet stream. Cooling would bring meridonal circulation. Now, post facto, it is suggested that a warming climate, especially in the arctic, also brings meridonal circulation. It has become unfalsifiable. It would be more beliveable if this was suggested before hand, and did not conflict with existing theory.
Note the similarities in this article, to today.
http://www.sciencenews.org/view/download/id/37739/name/CHILLING_POSSIBILITIES
TomT: your
Re DDT. I agree that it is fantastic. My comment was that it was discontinued in the 1960s for several reasons. Respectfully, you should read histories that don’t have a modern political bent.
DDT was discontinued in the 70s, not the 60s, and for political reasons only. Even the EPAs in house investigation recommended against the ban. Rucklehaus, as head of the EPA, banned it anyway. Since then, millions of people have died, that did not need to. Most of them children and pregnant women.
Respectfully, you should read histories that don’t have a modern political bent, or that try to put a positive spin on the deaths of millions. You can buff that turd all you want, but it won’t get shiny.
yeah, thats what I thought….
Les, I was talking about DDT and malaria control campaigns, the decisions in the 1960’s were complex.
Odd that I am the skeptic on a supposed skeptic blog.
Kadaka, I work on Plasmodium yoelii. I study the molecular and cellular biology of malaria parasite transmission to the mosquito. The rodent malaria parasite model is great for many things, the reason that many labs use it as a model, including my own, but fact remains that its departure from the human malaria parasites regarding temperature and transmission necessitates confirmation with P. falciparum. The authors said as much in the manuscript. Argue with me if you like, that is the beauty of the internet.
I think that it is odd that I am the skeptic, on a blog devoted to skepticism.
Johanna, at high latitudes mosquitoes of course live outside, but you should read about “indoor malaria”‘; specifically, mosquitoes transmitting malaria are living indoors.
It is an interesting subject, and worthy of future research regarding climate and malaria transmission.
TomT: your
Les, I was talking about DDT and malaria control campaigns, the decisions in the 1960′s were complex.
Odd that I am the skeptic on a supposed skeptic blog.
1. DDT was banned in the 70s, not the 60s. Please pay attention.
2. You are not a skeptic. A skeptic would admit he was wrong on there being no endemic malaria outbreaks in northern Europe. You steadfastly ignore this.
3. Kadaka quotes from the paper. You provide no reference at all.
4. Indoor malaria is the prevalent form of transmission, in the tropics or mid-latitudes. That is why DDT is so effective. Even in DDT resistant mossquito, they are less likely to stay indoors as they are DDT averse.
5. You have also not commented on the night time summer warmth in mid-latitude regions. Indoor malaria is moot.
6. Tens of Millions are dead because DDT was banned. Yet you defend the ban. Interesting.
If this breakthrough is true it will be a great achievement. I worked in the southern region of Africa for 7 years in the 80’s and 90’s and saw the debilitating effects of malaria in my co-workers and in myself when I contracted it twice. Some of the comments regarding this article were amazingly uninformed regarding the implications of this break through. The commenters seem to think that people being able to function more effectively will lead to starvation because there will be more mouths to feed. I assume they believe that African people have no ability to produce food more effectively, work harder, or think more clearly when they are not ill with devastating ilnesses like malaria.
People seem to be unaware that the continent is 3 times the size of the contiguous U.S. with about the equivalent population. There is fertile land there and there are hard working creative people.
My experience there leads me to be much more optimistic. This break through, if true, could contribute significantly to helping the inhabitants of Africa go to the next level of development in a much more accelerated fashion.
Les, in the tropics malaria is a disease of poor people. There is no heating, nor windows, and the inside temperature is the same as the outside. You “steadfastlessy ignore this”.
Kadaka quoted from the paper, and so did I: the authors stated that their studies needed to be confirmed with the human malaria parasite. Yet you “steadfastly ignore this”. Why do the authors qualify but you and Anthony do not?
I am commenting on DDT and malaria, yet you “steadfastly” comment on the ban on DDT with respect to agriculture. “Interesting”.
I state that my profession is malaria research, yet you ” steadfastly” think that you have nothing to learn from me and will argue with me until th cows come home. That is the beauty of the internet, the great equivicator. Interesting.
I state that there is much to be learned, yet you “steadfastly” think that all cases are closed.
Be a student, Les, always.
TomT: your
Les, in the tropics malaria is a disease of poor people. There is no heating, nor windows, and the inside temperature is the same as the outside. You “steadfastlessy ignore this”.
I assume you mean “steadfastly”? I don’t ignore this. I lived in West Africa for a decade, and I am well aware of the demography of malaria. As stated several times, if DDT is present, the mosquito will not rest indoors, and continue the cycle. You ignore this. Repeatedly. You also ignore the nighttime warmth present in mid-latitude during the summer. If ACs are needed at night, the parasite can obviously develop outdoors.
Kadaka quoted from the paper, and so did I:
This is a fib. You said “The authors said as much”. That is as close to a quote as you have come. Post a reference, or admit you are wrong.
I am commenting on DDT and malaria, yet you “steadfastly” comment on the ban on DDT with respect to agriculture. “Interesting”.
This is the first time you have brought up the term “agriculture”. Interesting. But DDT was still banned in the 70s, not the 60s, as you have stated twice. Admit the error.
I state that my profession is malaria research, yet you ” steadfastly” think that you have nothing to learn from me and will argue with me until th cows come home. That is the beauty of the internet, the great equivicator. Interesting.
You attribute to me motives and motivations without proof. Interesting. On the contrary, I learn in nearly discussion I am in, as I research new material, and confirm the older.That is the beauty of the internet, the great equalizer
FYI : equivocator = Someone who speaks unclearly or ambiguously in order to avoid having to commit to a decision, answer, or course of action.
Though it appears that your use of the word fits you like a glove. I have also noticed that when people use inappropriate words, it is usually the case when the uneducated are trying to appear educated. But, sometimes, a cigar is just a cigar.
I state that there is much to be learned, yet you “steadfastly” think that all cases are closed.
Again, attribution without proof. Poor methodology for a “researcher”.
Be a student, Les, always.
I always am, TomT, I always am.
Still no comment from you, on the 10s of millions of children and pregnant women, who died because of the ban on DDT.
Lee, sure, I could have used the word “equalizer”, but I chose “the great equivocator” as a paraphrase of the Porter in Macbeth. If you still have a problem with it then let me know.
DDT was banned by the EPA, led by Ruckelshaus in 1972. In the USA. But, the problems with the WHO malaria eradication program, globally, was in the 1960’s. The program ended in 1969. You can keep talking about the USA ban on DDT in the 1970’s, but the discussion of DDT and malaria, globally, begins in the 1960s.
“This is a fib.”
Relax, Lee.
Here is the quote from Paaijmans: “Our experiments used a rodent malaria and one species of mosquito and there is clearly a need to extend investigations to human malaria species and to other important vectors.” Biol. Lett. 8:465 (2012).
Tim: No problem. Glad to see you are able to quote. Kind of.
Give a source on the WHO, malaria eradication, DDT and the 1960s. According to the Nobel Insitutue, while the WHO program was ended in 1969, it mostly political:
Although technical difficulties such as mosquito and parasite drug resistance have played a part, the main failure to reduce the disease is probably due to social and political factors preventing efficient application of control measures.
My emphasis.
Nice back pedal on the “equivocator”, too. Of course, it makes absoutely no sense in that context.
And still, no comment on the 10s of millions of needless deaths of women and children. That is a bit cynical, no?
Tim: your
“Our experiments used a rodent malaria and one species of mosquito and there is clearly a need to extend investigations to human malaria species and to other important vectors”
Now, quote the rest:
Nonetheless, the A. stephensi–P. yoelii system is considered a biologically realistic model [14] and there is no reason to believe that the temperature sensitivity of vector competence and the cumulative distribution in parasite development times are unique to this system.
Tim: and…
Overall, our results challenge current understanding of the effects of temperature on malaria transmission dynamics. We expect the effects to be robust across human malarias and possibly other vector-borne diseases. If so, the findings have significant implications for the various strategic modelling frameworks informing current disease control and eradication efforts [18,19], as they suggest that control at higher temperatures might be more feasible than currently predicted. The results also add complexity to studies investigating the possible effects of climate warming [20], as increases in temperature need not simply lead to increases in transmission.
My emphasis.
The conclusion of that paper pretty well negates everything you have been stating on temperature dependence of the parasite.
“Now, quote the rest…”
Yes, I saw that, but as I stated above in many posts I am skeptical of their argument. As I said, I work on the molecular and cellular biology of malaria parasite transmission to mosquitoes, and use the rodent malaria model as a tool in my lab. The rodent malaria parasite model is a great system, and good for many things, but it departs from the human malaria parasite with respect to temperature and transmission (and elsewhere, unrelated to the topic at hand).
Regarding the WHO Global Malaria Eradication Program, here is a start:
“Some Lessons for the Future from the Global Malaria Eradication Programme (1955–1969)”
Najera et al PLoS Medicine (8:e1000412; 2011)
http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pmed.1000412
Yes, politics were involved, the program sought to eradicate malaria (the “E” word, as it is called in the malaria research community). The program was largely funded by the USA, and by the late 1960s congress was disappointed by the lack of results. They pulled the plug. Without funding it is hard to implement DDT indoor residual spraying programs.
Another factor was the renewed emphasis on chloroquine, and limited money resources were poured into medicine rather than insecticides. All in all, as I said, a complex situation, and to blame Rachel Carson is disingenuous.
“The conclusion of that paper pretty well negates everything you have been stating on temperature dependence of the parasite.”
But, the caveat, the elephant that needs to be escorted from the room, is that the study needs to be repeated with the appropriate experimental system: the human malaria parasite. My argument all along.
My suspicion is that the researchers chose Plasmodium yoelii because P. falciparum transmission to mosquitoes is far more difficult to work on. They are forced to make arguments in the Discussion section of the manuscript, rather than data in the Results section, because their facility is not equipped to culture P. falciparum, transmit to mosquitoes, and safely contain those infectious mosquitoes. Very few labs can do this, and to date they have not.
Elephant escorted from the room? Again, inappropiate use of words and phrases.
your
is that the study needs to be repeated with the appropriate experimental system: the human malaria parasite. My argument all along.
The authors state that the P. yoelii is a reasonable model, with a reference. Agreed, it needs to be tested to be validated. But the evidence suggests that malaria is not receptive to warmer temperatures.
If you have other references that dispute this, please provide them.
Your
All in all, as I said, a complex situation, and to blame Rachel Carson is disingenuous.
Not at all. After the US ban, and the subsequent world wide bans on DDT, malaria cases went up 2-3 times compared to pre-DDT ban. Note that environmental groups made dealing with the World Bank impossible if they produced their own DDT. The greens were inspired by Carson.
If Carson had not demonized DDT, 10s of millions of women and children would not have died.
“Elephant escorted from the room? Again, inappropiate use of words and phrases. ”
No, it isn’t. Why are you determined to suggest that I am uneducated? And the previous was a reference to Shakespeare.
“But the evidence suggests that malaria is not receptive to warmer temperatures.”
Malaria is a disease. You mean the malaria parasite. That is, if we are going to talk about inappropriate use of words.
“The authors state that the P. yoelii is a reasonable model, with a reference. ”
You should read that reference. The authors of that reference state compatibility between the two experimental systems (and so do I)…but also highlight many differences (and so do I). Even in the Abstract they state: “However, some of the genes identified in these screens have no effect on the human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum; raising the question of whether different mosquito effector genes mediate anti-parasitic responses to different Plasmodium species.” and later in the article, “It is well documented that An. gambiae mosquitoes have a different transcriptional response to infection with P. berghei and P. falciparum”
“If Carson had not demonized DDT, 10s of millions of women and children would not have died. After the US ban, and the subsequent world wide bans on DDT, malaria cases went up 2-3 times compared to pre-DDT ban.”
A convenient coincidence used by conservatives to demonize the environmental movement. Coincidence does not equal causation. If one were interested in such fluffy propaganda tactics they could say that Ruckelshaus, Nixon and the GOP banned DDT, and have blood on their hands. But the truth is more complex, and more interesting.
Tim: your
No, it isn’t. Why are you determined to suggest that I am uneducated? And the previous was a reference to Shakespeare.
“Escort the elephant from the room” makes no sense. Its also a mixed metaphor. Another sign of pretension.
The reference to Shakespeare? Its the second reference when googled. I assume that is what you saw when you googled the term, after I pointed out the error. Assuming you meant to use “equivocator”, I don’t see how it makes sense to call the internet that pejorative.
You are correct. I should have said “parasite”, not “malaria”.
your
You should read that reference.
You seem confused. We were talking of the parasites response to temperature, and how it should remain similar across species. Now you are talking about the mosquitoes response to the parasite.
your
A convenient coincidence used by conservatives to demonize the environmental movement. Coincidence does not equal causation.
Malaria rates fell when DDT was used. Rates rose when it was banned. Rates fell in areas that used indoor spraying, since DDT was re-instated. WHO, the EDF (who originally capianged for the ban) and the Sierra Club all say that DDT is vital to the control of malaria. Helluva coincidence, no?
If one were interested in such fluffy propaganda tactics they could say that Ruckelshaus, Nixon and the GOP banned DDT, and have blood on their hands. But the truth is more complex, and more interesting.
I hope there is a special place in hell for Ruckleshaus and Nixon, for the ban. But again, it was the greens, especially the EDF, that campaigned for the ban, based on Carson’s book.
BTW, I am left of center in economic and libertarian matters. That would make me a liberal.
one more inconsistent use. And one that a researcher should know.
Coincidence does not equal causation.
Its actually “correlation does equal causation”.
corrigendum:
12:37 post should read “(who originally campaigned for the ban)” and not “(who originally capianged for the ban)”
2:20 post – should read “correlation does not equal causation” and not “correlation does equal causation”
…mixed metaphor…
What metaphor was the elephant mixed with?
….correlation does not…
Yes, but I chose to use coincidence instead, because your DDT argument isn’t worthy of the word correlation. Ain’t I a stinker, to purposefully switch words and phrases all the time.
My Shakespeare reference wasn’t from google, it was from my high school reading of Macbeth, many decades ago.
…now you are talking about the mosquito…
If two species of parasites are equivalent, then the mosquito response should be the same. Since the mosquito response shows differences, that indicates that the parasites are not equivalent.
…helluva coincidence, no…
Not really, I would like to see a reference that environmental groups opposed DDT use against malaria. They were against agricultual use of DDT.
Malaria rates fell in countries that had the money and infrastructure to fight malaria. The strong correlation of malaria control is with…money and wherewithall. Witness South Africa, in contrast to poorer African nations. Witness the decline in malaria now, it is not DDT, but a huge multi-national effort (fueled in large part by Gates). If they choose DDT as a tool in their toolbox, then I am more than OK with it.
Tim: your
What metaphor was the elephant mixed with?
The elephant in the room metaphor. He is not escorted out, he is discussed.
Yes, but I chose to use coincidence instead, because your DDT argument isn’t worthy of the word correlation. Ain’t I a stinker, to purposefully switch words and phrases all the time.
Except I dont think you switch them intentionally. Least of all because it often makes no sense.
My Shakespeare reference wasn’t from google, it was from my high school reading of Macbeth, many decades ago.
Still doesn’t explain why you think the internet is the great equivocator.
If two species of parasites are equivalent, then the mosquito response should be the same. Since the mosquito response shows differences, that indicates that the parasites are not equivalent.
Hardly. If the temperature response is the same through parasite species, then the mosquito response is moot. The topic was parasite temperature response, not mosquito response to the parasite.
Not really, I would like to see a reference that environmental groups opposed DDT use against malaria. They were against agricultual use of DDT.
Really? And you are a DDT researcher? Under pressure from green groups, the World Bank would give loans only if DDT was discontinued.
http://www.africanexecutive.com/modules/magazine/articles.php?article=752
http://skeptoid.com/episodes/4230
Malaria rates fell in countries that had the money and infrastructure to fight malaria. The strong correlation of malaria control is with…money and wherewithall.
And with the use of DDT. The eradication in Europe was almost entirely vector control, using DDT and controlling standing water.
Witness South Africa, in contrast to poorer African nations.
Yes, witness SA. The rates fell dramatically only after use of indoor spraying of DDT.
If they choose DDT as a tool in their toolbox, then I am more than OK with it.
The EDF, Sierra Fund, and greepeace are supporting DDT use now. WHO state that its VITAL.
The greens did not support DDT in the 70s and 80s, forcing the Wolrd Bank and the EU, even USAID, to be give money contigent on discontuning DDT.
TomT: these papers show that malaria in South Africa INCREASED after DDT was removed from the tool kit. Under pressure from green groups. These papers were written about 1999.
As you state, malaria has decreased since, and AFTER the re-instatment of DDT.
http://www.malaria.org/tren.html
He is not escorted out, he is discussed.
You are trying too hard to malign me.
Except I dont think you switch them intentionally.
You are trying too hard to malign me. And you are wrong.
The topic was parasite temperature response…
Incorrect, that reference was to support that the rodent and human malaria parasites are equivalent. The fact, pointed out in the reference, that the two parasites differentially provoke responses by the mosquito indicate that they are not equivalent.
And you are a DDT researcher?
Incorrect, pay attention to the thread, above I stated my profession. Speaking of my professional expertise, I did make one embarrassing mistake on this thread. You did not catch it, but no matter because the mistake doesn’t change the force of my arguments. But an error nonetheless.
The eradication in Europe…
…was fueled by money and infrastructure. Lots and lots and lots of it. If Africa had those resources then the world would be better off. Witness South Africa. Your emphasis on DDT is disingenuous. Indoor residual spraying with DDT or any insecticide requires a great investment in infrastructure, training and education.
The EDF, Sierra Fund, and greepeace are supporting DDT use now. WHO state that its VITAL.
Yes, I have never said that DDT is not a good thing. But you seem to be fixated on it and ignoring the greater, complex picture. Keep reading, and take off those blinders.
TomT: your
You are trying too hard to malign me.
No. You do a good enough job.
Incorrect, that reference was to support that the rodent and human malaria parasites are equivalent. The fact, pointed out in the reference, that the two parasites differentially provoke responses by the mosquito indicate that they are not equivalent.
The researchers, and their reference, state that that a similar response to temperature should be expected. The fact that the parasite provokes different responses in the mosquito is moot. One would expect differences in the species, or they would not be different species, would they? The researchers and the reference both agree that the temperature response should be the same. And that global warming may not aid the spread of the parasite.
was fueled by money and infrastructure. Lots and lots and lots of it.
And DDT. Lots and lots and lots of it.
Yes, I have never said that DDT is not a good thing.
No, what you said was that the green groups only opposed DDT in agriculture, not malaria control. As my references show, you are wrong.
As you are also wrong about DDT usage and malaria rates being a coincidence. My references suggest that there is a direct link.
Les, congratulations for slugging it out with Tom here, but it is a waste of time.
For a useful compendium of facts and references about DDT, I recommend:
http://junkscience.com/ddt/
Funnily enough, there is a big feature article on Slate this week about how mean and yucky and unfair it is to blame Rachel Carson and her followers for millions of human deaths. After all, she meant well …
johanna, likewise.
good intentions, Tom, good intentions…..
Of course, before they were for DDT, they were against it.
But, it appears that even Greenpeace and the WWF agree that DDT reduced malaria in South Africa.
“South Africa was right to use DDT,” said WWF spokesperson Richard Liroff. “If the alternatives to DDT aren’t working, as they weren’t in South Africa, geez, you’ve got to use it. In South Africa it prevented tens of thousands of malaria cases and saved lots of lives.”
Greenpeace spokesperson Rick Hind agreed. “If there’s nothing else and it’s going to save lives, we’re all for it. Nobody’s dogmatic about it.”
I would argue the dogmatic part. Greenpeace argued against DDT use until 2000, and then only changed after immense humanitarian pressure.