Tisdale: How Does the Evolution of the 2012/13 El Niño Stack Up Against the Others since 1982?

Guest post by Bob Tisdale

In addition to the title discussion, this post will serve as the Mid-July 2012 Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Update. It also includes a status update on my book about El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

COMPARISON OF THE EVOLUTIONS OF EL NIÑO EVENTS

NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies (a commonly used ENSO index) have been above the +0.5 deg C threshold of an El Niño for 4 weeks. While it’s far from an “official” El Niño, it appears that it’s likely to become one. Let’s see how the 2012/13 El Niño is evolving compared to past El Niño events. Figure 1 compares the weekly NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies for each El Niño event since 1982, starting with the first week in January of those years. The 2012 data is in red, using a greater weighting. The first thing that stands out in the graph is how there really is nothing typical about the evolution of El Niño events. Five started from ENSO-neutral conditions; that is, with NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies between -0.5 and +0.5 deg C. Five, including the current one, started from La Niña conditions, with the NINO3.4 sea surface temperatures cooler than -0.5 deg C. And there’s the outlier, the 1987/88 portion of the 2-year 1986/87/88 El Niño. Other than having the coolest NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies at one point, there’s nothing remarkable about the evolution of the NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies this year.

Figure 1

Figure 2 compares the evolution of the El Niño events that started from La Niña conditions. This year’s NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies had been tracking along at the pace of the most recent El Niño, the one that occurred in 2009/10, until recently. Over the past two weeks, NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies have been cooling.

Figure 2

NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies appear as though they’re being suppressed by the cooler-than-normal waters being circulated southward from the North Pacific, which should be feedback from the back-to-back La Niña events. Refer to the sea surface temperature animation from Unisys, Animation 1, but keep in mind that positive temperature anomalies are light blue. Most people associate shades of blue with negative anomalies. (You may need to click on the animation to start it.)

Animation 1

It will be interesting to see how long the cooler waters from the North Pacific can suppress the central sea surface temperatures in the east-central equatorial Pacific.

Figure 3 shows the NINO1+2 sea surface temperature anomalies for the same El Niño events that were presented in Figure 2. The NINO1+2 region is in the eastern tropical Pacific, just south of the equator. The coordinates are 10S-0, 90W-80W. This year the NINO1+2 sea surface temperature anomalies warmed before the NINO3.4 region, but they also have been cooling.

Figure 3

But referring to the animation of NOAA subsurface temperature anomaly cross sections for the equatorial Pacific, Animation 2, there’s still a pocket of elevated anomalies at depth in the eastern equatorial Pacific, and there’s a long way to go before the peak of the ENSO season.

Animation 2

MID-MONTH UPDATE

Weekly NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies for the week centered on July 11, 2012 are approximately +0.55 deg C, having dropped from about +0.73 over the past few weeks.

Figure 4

And global sea surface temperature anomalies are continuing the upward march, rebounding from La Niña conditions and responding to the evolving El Niño.

Figure 5

STATUS OF MY UPCOMING BOOK ABOUT ENSO

After a good number of suggestions, the current working title of the book is Who Turned on the Heat? with the subtitle El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit. I’ve added 4 chapters to Section 2 and 7 chapters to Section 4 since the last status update, and I’m currently working on Chapter 5.6. See the following Table of Contents as it exists at present. Please let me know if there are any topics you can think of that I’ve missed.

INTRODUCTION

Section 1 – A Description of El Niño and La Niña Events Using Annotated Illustrations

1.1 Preliminary Discussion of the ENSO Annotated Illustrations

1.2 The ENSO Annotated Illustrations

1.3 Recap of Section 1

Section 2 – A Few Preliminary Discussions

2.1 Do the Words “Oscillation” and “Cycle” in the names “El Niño-Southern Oscillation” and “ENSO Cycle” Cause Misunderstandings?

2.2 The Types of Graphs Presented

2.3 Linear Trends

2.4 How El Niño and La Niña Events Present Themselves in the Sea Surface Temperature Record

2.5 Our Primary ENSO Index is NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

2.6 How ENSO Events Are Presented in the Text

2.7 On the Use of Anomalies

2.8 Converting Monthly Absolute Data to Anomalies

2.9 Using the Model Mean of the IPCC’s Climate Models

2.10 Why We’ll Be Using Satellite-Based Sea Surface Temperature Data

2.11 Data Smoothing and Detrending

2.12 The IPCC Says Only Climate Models Forced by Manmade Greenhouse Gases can Explain the Recent Warming

2.13 The Additional Mode of Natural Variability in the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures—Introduction to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

2.14 The Two Primary Data Sources

2.15 Recap of Section 2

Section 3 – A More Detailed Discussion of ENSO Processes

3.1 A Quick Look at the Size of the Pacific Ocean

3.2 Pacific Trade Winds and Ocean Currents

3.3 Putting the Equatorial Pacific Cross Sections in Perspective

3.4 The ENSO-Neutral State of the Tropical Pacific

3.5 The Transition from ENSO-Neutral to El Niño

3.6 El Niño Phase

3.7 The Transition from El Niño to ENSO Neutral

3.8 La Niña Phase

3.9 The Transition from La Niña to ENSO-Neutral

3.10 The Recharge of Ocean Heat during the La Niña

3.11 Summary of Section 3

Section 4 – Additional ENSO Discussions

4.1 How El Niño Events Cause Surface Temperatures to Warm Outside of the Tropical Pacific

4.2 Central Pacific versus East Pacific El Niño Events

4.3 ENSO Indices

4.4 ENSO Indices Also Fail to Capture the Relative Strengths of ENSO Events

4.5 The Repeating Sequence of Primary and Secondary El Niño Events

4.6 A Look at How a Few More Tropical Pacific Variables Respond to ENSO

4.7 ENSO Events Run in Synch with the Annual Seasonal Cycle

4.8 Subsurface Temperature and Temperature Anomaly Variations in the Equatorial Pacific And an Introduction to Kelvin Waves

4.9 An Introduction to the Delayed Oscillator Mechanism

4.10 ENSO Versus the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

4.11 There is a Multidecadal Component to ENSO

4.12 ENSO Monitoring

4.13 An Introduction to the Indian Ocean Dipole and How It’s Impacted by ENSO

4.14 Impacts of ENSO Events on Regional Temperature and Precipitation

4.15 Further Discussion on What Initiates an ENSO Event

4.16 Weak, Moderate and Strong ENSO Event Thresholds

4.17 ENSO – A Cycle or Series of Events?

4.18 ENSO Influence on Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes)

Section 5 – The Long-Term Impacts of Major ENSO Events on Global Temperature Anomalies

5.1 No Surprise – East Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Mimic ENSO, But Where’s The Anthropogenic Global Warming Signal?

5.2 But Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Have Warmed During the Satellite Era

5.3 Where and Why Sea Surface Temperatures Can Warm in Response to Certain El Niño AND La Niña Events

5.4 The Obvious ENSO-Caused Upward Shifts in the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies of the East Indian and West Pacific Oceans

5.5 The ENSO-Caused Upward Shifts Still Exist if We Add the South Atlantic and West Indian Sea Surface Temperature Data to the East Indian and West Pacific

5.6 The Additional Warming of the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures is Caused by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation AND Additional ENSO-Impacted Processes

5.7 The IPCC’s Climate Models do a Terrible Job of Simulating East Pacific, “North Atlantic Plus”, and South Atlantic-Indian-West Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures

5.8 The IPCC’s Climate Models Appear to Warm in Response to Absolute Surface Temperatures and Not Natural Processes

5.9 The Long-Term Impacts of Major ENSO Events on Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomalies

5.10 The Long-Term Impacts of Major ENSO Events on Global Land-Plus-Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

5.11 A Look at the Impacts of ENSO and Other Natural Factors on Ocean Heat Content Data

5.12 Does Downward Longwave (Infrared) Radiation from Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases do Anything More Than Increase Evaporation?

Section 6 –Common ENSO Myths

6.1 ENSO is an Oscillation and as Such Cannot Contribute to the Long-Term Trend

6.2 A New One: El Niño and La Niña Balance Out to Zero over the Long-Term

6.3 Similar to the Above, The Effects of La Niña Events Counteract those of El Niño Events

6.4 ENSO Only Adds Noise to the Instrument Temperature Record and We Can Remove its Effects through Linear Regression Analysis

6.5 The Frequency and Strength of El Niño and La Niña Events are Dictated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Section 7 – Closing

I’m hoping to have it done within a month. But it may take longer if I continue to add to it.

SOURCE

The Reynolds Optimally Interpolated Sea Surface Temperature Data (OISST) are available through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive & Distribution System (NOMADS).

http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh

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49 Responses to Tisdale: How Does the Evolution of the 2012/13 El Niño Stack Up Against the Others since 1982?

  1. George says:

    So far I think it is more likely to go right back to neutral conditions. I’m not seeing anything YET that would indicate any major push to El Nino. Trades aren’t all that slack.

  2. Pittzer says:

    I know it’s anecdotal, but the five and a half inches of rain in my gauge (in Austin, TX) over the weekend tells me the boy is back!

  3. Ian W says:

    Bob, looking at the SST anomalies from the Unisys Chart http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom_new.gif while the narrow area of NINO 3.4 may look like an El Nino, the SSTs certainly don’t at the moment. There is a huge amount of cold from the ‘La Nina Modoki’ (for want of a better expression) and there seems to be cold upwelling around coastal Peru. Do you think that the simple graphs of NINO 3.4 actually provide sufficient information to forecast a new El Nino?

  4. Interstellar Bill says:

    Splendid book outline, but don’t expect Warmistas to read it:
    #1 Too much data, too many facts, no ‘climate change’ phraseology
    #2 No data distortion for the sake of hand-wringing alarmism
    #3 Heretical attribution of warming to a non-greenhouse culprit

    First you’ll be ignored, then poo-pooed, and finally denounced thunderously.

    The one place you can be sure that will never cite this paper:
    the next IPCC report.

  5. George says:

    If you look at the ENSO reference page here, take a look at the trade wind map. Notice the anomaly map. Look at the very northern edge. We still have a strong west anomaly (strong trades out of the east) but it just looks like they have shifted north of their usual location.

  6. more soylent green! says:

    (Reuters) – The debate over free access to publicly-funded scientific research will shift to the European Commission after the UK government backed a report calling for financial support for researchers to use so-called ‘open access’ science journals.

    [more] http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/16/us-science-publishing-idUSBRE86F0UD20120716

    BTW: There is no specific mention of climate science/climate modelling in the article.

  7. Gail Combs says:

    Steve says: @ July 16, 2012 at 11:13 am

    This should pretty much explain things. Finally. http://www.theonion.com/articles/scientists-trace-heat-wave-to-massive-star-at-cent,21088/
    _______________________________________
    Sounds like someone got the science right. About time.

  8. jorgekafkazar says:

    Good idea to post this. The outline looks very complete. Sections 6.01, 6.02, and 6.03 seem identical to me. Maybe combine into one section? My real interest is in Section 4.15. What triggers the El Nino phase? The usual “slackening trade winds” answer merely passes the buck. What causes the trade winds to slacken? I’m still thinking it’s an air-and-water viscosity-driven reaction to upwelling (La Nina) cold water in the Eastern Pacific.

    I compare the Nina/Nino oscillation to a grandfather’s clock with a mouse running up and down the pendulum. If we knew more about the mouse, we might know more about the timing of the swings.

  9. SteveSadlov says:

    I’m hoping the recent peak in June was not THE Peak. We need rain badly in California.

  10. Bob Tisdale says:

    Ian W says: “Do you think that the simple graphs of NINO 3.4 actually provide sufficient information to forecast a new El Nino?”

    NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies are the basis for NOAA declaring an “official” El Niño event, which is why the post focuses on it. I don’t believe you’ll find a similar transition from La Niña conditions to where NINO3.4 SST anomalies are today that did not turn into an El Niño by year’s end. If you do, please advise.

    I also provided NINO1+2 sea surface temperature anomalies and equatorial Pacific subsurface temperature anomalies in the post. In addition, there are many more indicators pointing toward an El Niño. Refer to the NOAA weekly briefing:
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

    Regards

  11. Duster says:

    The anomaly in the northern and eastern Pacific is rather low with a -5 degree area due east of Hawaii. As that circulate south. it would not be surprising to see it put a damper on any incipient EN patterns. That cool water is also giving California a rather coolish July. There have been some hot spells when Summer has fought back, but by and large, for a native Californian it has been an excessively pleasant summer. It has played hob with the garden. Also leaves you wondering what the fall and winter will be like, cold and dry?

  12. phlogiston says:

    Bob, the book looks very exciting, when can you reveal the price – will it make a hole in our credit card account that my wife wont notice? I’m intrigued by chapter 4.9 in particular (An Introduction to the Delayed Oscillator Mechanism). Delayed feedback is the sort of thing that leads to nonlinear oscillation and nonequilibrium pattern:

    http://www.ias.ac.in/pramana/v78/p347/fulltext.pdf
    http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10236190290017487

    OTOH – how confident are you that this really IS the el Ninot that so many have been waiting and hoping for?

    That cold tongue of water off Peru stubbornly remains, even seems to grow.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.gif

    At the very latest Pacific SST animation the warm tongue seems to be pinched by cold from both north and south:

    http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/glb8_3b/html/anims/eqp/sst30d.gif

    As you point out yourself, the Nino 3.4 is headed south just at the moment. To address the question you posed yourself – it would seem likely that the very cold north Pacific would weigh significantly on the equatorial dynamics. Not to mention the far south Pacific.

    And as others have pointed out the trades still seem quite healthy, albeit weakening at the far east Pacific.

    BTW Why cant we have a UNISYS map where +/- 0.5C is simply white – why is it always either all yellow (bias to warm) or all blue (bias to cold)?

    I’ll stick my head out and predict – just for entertainment value – that this “el Nino” will be abortive, it will sink back down toward La Nina III by the fall.

    Of course my belief is that the ENSO is a nonlinear oscillator and that it is currently balanced on a knife-edge, could go either way, so I am really betting on a coin-toss.

    I understand that there are mid-equatorial and east equatorial el Ninos. Is the same true of La Ninas?

    Thanks for an interesting and useful post.

  13. Pamela Gray says:

    Since the PDO is in its cold cycle, I am thinking we will not see this El Nino. Call it a No No El Nino. Given current conditions, each successive forecast week demonstrates reduced confidence that an El Nino will develop, and an increasing confidence that neutral conditions will bridge us to the next La Nina. We are nearly at 50/50. I’ll bet that in three weeks we will be at the coin flip stage.

  14. thingadonta says:

    I’ve worked in eastern Indonesia for some years, and have noticed that it is extremely senstive to El Nino/La Nina. It picks it up well before the Australian researchers pick it up. Nobody is doing any research here, so I think they don’;t use this local data it in theoir models/forecasts.

    Eg in 2010 it started raining in May-June, in the dry season, and kept going until April the next year. Locals said it hadnt done this in 50 years. There was no dry season here at all in 2010. Australian researchers didnt catch on until late 2010, and the dams flooded there in Jan-March 2011.

    Right now we are getting weak patchy rain for the last few months, which suggests more towards La Nina then El Nino. In 2009 the El Nino then gave a strong dry season here, we arent getting that now, so locals don’t expect a El Nino to develop later in the year.

  15. Bob Tisdale says:

    jorgekafkazar says: “My real interest is in Section 4.15. What triggers the El Nino phase? The usual ‘slackening trade winds’ answer merely passes the buck. What causes the trade winds to slacken?”

    Chapter 4.15 starts:
    When Anthony Watts cross posts one of my blog posts about ENSO at his widely read blog WattsUpWithThat, a question that’s often asked is “What initiates an El Niño?” My reply is typically something to the effect of: An El Niño event is initiated by a weakening of the tropical Pacific trade winds. This allows the warm water that had been held in place in the west Pacific Warm Pool to slosh east.

    Sometimes, there’s the follow-up question “What causes the trade winds to relax?” And my reply is: There are a number of causes and they vary.

    This doesn’t satisfy some people…
    HHHHHHHHH
    Guess who I was thinking of when I wrote that!

  16. George says:

    thingadonta says:
    July 16, 2012 at 5:09 pm

    Weather patterns in the Northwestern US are still more like Nina than Nino, too.

  17. Bill Illis says:

    One significant issue is that the Atmosphere is not coupled with the Ocean yet (or may never be coupled).

    It is helpful to think of the ENSO as a coupled sel-reinforcing phenomenon composed of Atmosphere and Ocean components.

    But right now, ALL of the atmosphere processes are in neutral or even La Nina stage. And ALL of the Ocean processes are saying moderate to strong El Niño.

    The Trade Winds have to slacken, Global Atmospheric Angular Momentum has to go positive, SOI has to go strongly negative and the clouds and rain have to move to the central Pacific versus the Western Pacific where they still are before the El Niño will become self-reinforcing.

    All of these Atmospheric processes, however, are in the other direction right now.

    There is a lag between the Atmospheric processes and the Ocean processes but there is no rule that says they will always couple up. Maybe they won’t and this will just be a neutral event.

  18. Kevin Kilty says:

    Over the past four weeks we have seen a return of the monsoon here in the western Plains, and breaking of drought locally at least. I hope we are turning from La to El, although here in Southeastern Wyoming, the El Nino phase doesn’t always bring wetter seasons. It is not as consistent as on the west coast and in the northwest.

  19. HR says:

    Great work (again) Bob. I had started to think this year was looking like ending up neutral but this has put it in perspective for me.

    OT but the post over at Pielke Snr blog about your latitude based work was interesting. And the maps showing first how much the N. Atlantic has warmed since 1982 and second how little it’s warmed since 2003 were really interesting. It’s added to my curiosity about just were things are going in the Arctic with respect to warming from Atlantic waters. There’s an interesting little data set from west of the UK showing heat transport in the North Atlantic that you might like (it’s called the Ellett line http://www.noc.soton.ac.uk/obe/PROJECTS/EEL/latestresults.php)

    Interesting things are happening in the oceans at the moment and it’s good to know you’ve got your eye on it.

  20. Bob Tisdale says:

    phlogiston says: “Bob, the book looks very exciting, when can you reveal the price – will it make a hole in our credit card account that my wife wont notice?”

    I won’t know the price until I upload it to Kindle. I’m just about done with chapter 5.6 and this book is about the same size (14mb) as my first book. If I stopped now, the price of this one would be comparable to the first: $7.99(U.S.) for the Kindle edition and $10(U.S.) for the pdf version. In other words, this one will be more expensive when I’m done. How much more? $2 to $4 more would be a reasonable guess. Here’s the plan: The pdf price is dictated by the Kindle price; other electronic editions have to be 20% more than the Kindle price. So as soon as I upload it to Kindle and determine the price there, I’ll release the pdf version for a week at a reduced price. Then, after a week, I’ll publish through Kindle, and bounce the pdf version 20% higher than the Kindle version.

    phlogiston says: “ That cold tongue of water off Peru stubbornly remains, even seems to grow.”

    Isn’t that growth part of the seasonal cycle? Here’s an animation of NOAA’s monthly SST climatology:
    http://i50.tinypic.com/15uidz.jpg

    phlogiston says: “I understand that there are mid-equatorial and east equatorial el Ninos. Is the same true of La Ninas?”

    Yes. Assuming that -0.7 is the threshold for a La Niña Modoki, all but one La Niña event since 1982 was a Central Pacific La Niña event. The oddball was the 1995/96 La Nina:
    http://i46.tinypic.com/2072scy.jpg

  21. HR says:

    Bill Illis,

    Interesting thoughts. I had a look at one of the atmosphere processes you talk about. I used the region used by the BOM in their ENSO wrap up ( http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ ). As you say things are in neutral phase but aren’t really out of place compared with other El Nino years given the time of year.

    http://i47.tinypic.com/4tn137.png

    (I took the same years Bob used in his figure 2. The data is monthly (1=Jan etc.). The measurement is OLR and should go negative during El Nino as this region clouds up and stay positive in La Nina as the sky stays clear. 1997 is an obvious standout as cloudiness developed early that year. 2012 (black) is right there with the other El Nino years. On the basis of cloudiness at the equatorial dateline I don’t think you can rule out a moderate El Nino. This is all based on the NOAA Interpolated OLR on KNMI climate explorer)

  22. Bill Illis,

    Thanks. I appreciate seeing your name in the comments. I always stop and read them.

  23. jorgekafkazar says:

    Bob Tisdale says: “…Sometimes, there’s the follow-up question “What causes the trade winds to relax?” And my reply is: There are a number of causes and they vary. This doesn’t satisfy some people…Guess who I was thinking of when I wrote that!”

    LÖL.
    : )

  24. Jon says:

    Could it be an El Nina or La Niño?
    Caused by a PDO in cold phase?

  25. Gerard says:

    Well here in Australia, we hope it returns to neutral condition as El Nino is terrible for us

  26. Jon says:

    El Gorro?

  27. Phil says:

    Really pleased with the new title – big improvement. I found your last book very interesting – but really disliked the title.

  28. Bob Tisdale says:

    Pamela Gray: I just responded to a similar comment at the cross post at my blog. During the satellite era, I don’t believe that NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies have gone a full-fledged La Niña into El Niño conditions, and then back into ENSO-neutral conditions. I can’t say if it happened before the 1980s, I haven’t looked, but I think it would be a first in the past 30 years. It would be interesting, to says the least, if it happened.

    Starting from ENSO neutral, the 1991/92 El Niño reached 1 deg C early in the year, and then dropped back into ENSO neutral before swinging back up again into a relatively strong El Niño.

    We’ll see what happens.

  29. Bob Tisdale says:

    HR: Thanks for the link about the Extended Ellett line.

  30. Bob Tisdale says:

    Phil says: “I found your last book very interesting – but really disliked the title.”

    The title seemed right to me at the time. With AR5 approaching next year, I was hoping to update it with the CMIP5 models and call it “The IPCC’s Climate Models Show No Skill”, with the subtitle of “Why Do YOU Believe Them?” Josh could have some fun working up the cover art for that title.

  31. Baa Humbug says:

    It (whether we get an El Nino or a La NIna) all depends on the trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).
    Currently the SOI is suppressed because the waters off of the Darwin coast are comparatively cool. Once those waters warm, the SOI will start moving back to a positive phase.

    I’m afraid not much to see here this year folks. Mostly neutral, maybe slightly favouring La Nina.

  32. Gerard says:

    Julia Gillard is hoping for an El Nino as they shamelessly used the last as evidence for climate change and global warming.

  33. phlogiston says:

    Bob Tisdale says:
    July 16, 2012 at 7:16 pm
    phlogiston says: “Bob, the book looks very exciting, when can you reveal the price – will it make a hole in our credit card account that my wife wont notice?”

    I won’t know the price until I upload it to Kindle. I’m just about done with chapter 5.6 and this book is about the same size (14mb) as my first book. If I stopped now, the price of this one would be comparable to the first: $7.99(U.S.) for the Kindle edition and $10(U.S.) for the pdf version. In other words, this one will be more expensive when I’m done. How much more? $2 to $4 more would be a reasonable guess.

    Thanks – so downloading the book wont be a problem – getting a kindle could be more tricky though (list of domestic projects competing for funding…). So I’ll get the pdf version.

    You’re right – the “cold tongue” is really just climatology.

  34. SteveSadlov says:

    This sucks. Another false start.

  35. phlogiston says:

    SteveSadlov says:
    July 17, 2012 at 12:34 pm
    This sucks.

    That’s ENSO in a nutshell. The trade winds suck east Pacific upwelling. In return the upwelling strengthens the trades. Suck and blow. Its called the Bjerknes feedback.

  36. Werner Brozek says:

    It just dropped to +0.49.

  37. SteveSadlov says:

    Now the ENSO meter’s moving back into Neutral.

  38. rogerknights says:

    the current working title of the book is Who Turned on the Heat? with the subtitle El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit.

    A minor tweak–How about “Who Turned up the Heat?”

  39. rogerknights says:

    Bob Tisdale says:
    July 17, 2012 at 1:54 am
    Phil says: “I found your last book very interesting – but really disliked the title.”

    The title seemed right to me at the time. With AR5 approaching next year, I was hoping to update it with the CMIP5 models and call it “The IPCC’s Climate Models Show No Skill”, with the subtitle of “Why Do YOU Believe Them?” Josh could have some fun working up the cover art for that title.

    If I may … How about …

    Blooper Models: The Fumbling Fashionistas on Climatology’s Catwalk

    That’s a “teaser” and a “grabber,” which is what you want. People will figure it out–or if they can’t, they’ll “look inside the book” to satisfy their curiosity as to what it’s about. There you can have a sub-sub-tile that is more straightforward, such as, “The IPCC’s Climate Models Show No Skill: Don’t be a Fashion Victim”

  40. Bob Tisdale says:

    rogerknights: Thanks for the title suggestions.

  41. Bob Tisdale says:

    Anthony: Thanks.

  42. rogerknights says:

    Bob Tisdale says:
    July 18, 2012 at 1:08 am
    rogerknights: Thanks for the title suggestions.

    Here’s another one that’s even better at “grabbing”:

    An Inconvenient Goof: Climatology’s Blooper Models

    (Or “… Duper Models”)

  43. rogerknights says:

    PS: Append “Show No Skill” after “Models”

  44. rogerknights says:

    PPS: Elsewhere in the book you could employ this sentence (don’t explain it–let readers draw the parallel for themselves):
    “Climatology’s models are vain and shallow.”

  45. rogerknights says:

    PPPS: Or, instead of “Show No Skill,” you could say, “Drop the Ball”, which is more in tune with “goof” and “blooper”.

  46. rogerknights says:

    PPPPS: Maybe hyphenate “Blooper Models,” to bring out the allusion to Supermodels.

  47. phlogiston says:

    Werner Brozek says:
    July 17, 2012 at 3:50 pm
    It just dropped to +0.49.

    SteveSadlov says:
    July 17, 2012 at 7:34 pm
    Now the ENSO meter’s moving back into Neutral.

    To quote Brad Pitt in the movie 12 monkeys, “see – told ya!”.

  48. jorgekafkazar says:

    The shorter the title, the better. If it were my book: “Climate Models Suck.”

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