While alarmists bloviate about three months of warm weather citing it as cock-sure proof that global warming is at fault (like they always do), we have this from the University of Missouri-Columbia. It is research figuring out why this spring was so warm, and noting that in 1889, it happened the same way before.
Note how the ENSO pattern differences affect the USA:
2 warmest winter months in Midwest history may have connection
Discoveries could help predict weather in the future
COLUMBIA, Mo. – This past March was the second warmest winter month ever recorded in the Midwest, with temperatures 15 degrees above average. The only other winter month that was warmer was December of 1889, during which temperatures were 18 degrees above average. Now, MU researchers may have discovered why the weather patterns during these two winter months, separated by 123 years, were so similar. The answer could help scientists develop more accurate weather prediction models.
Tony Lupo, chair of the Department of Soil, Environment and Atmospheric Sciences in the College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources at MU, created computer models with global weather records and ship captains’ logs to determine why these two months were unusually warm. He discovered that the preceding months were also dry and warm, as well as the previous summers, which led him to determine that both 2012 and 1889 were La Niña years.
“During a period of La Niña the sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Eastern Central Pacific Ocean are lower than normal by 3 to 6 degrees,” Lupo said. “This typically directs the jet stream from the Pacific on a northeastern path over Canada. Rain storms follow the jet stream, leaving the central and south-central states dry, while blocking air from moving south into the Midwest, resulting in higher temperatures.”
The discovery of the similarity between these two months, even though they are separated by 123 years, could help scientists understand the variability within climate patterns and assist them with future weather predictions. Thus, scientists could further understand how climate is changing and how variable it is becoming.
As well as being La Niña years, 2012 and 1889 also featured strong Artic Oscillations, a pattern of air pressure that wraps itself around the North Pole. During these times the air pressure is low and the oscillation traps and keeps cold air in the artic. With oscillation keeping cold air to the north, records showed a strong “ridge” over central North America. Ridges often bring record heat into an area, explaining the unusually warm winter temperatures, Lupo explained.
“The La Niña pattern has continued into the summer and will continue to affect the weather,” Lupo said. “This will cause droughts and above average heat throughout the Midwest from Texas to Iowa. A new El Nino pattern could develop this fall and bring favorable weather conditions to the Midwest; however, I don’t see this happening.”
Lupo is a fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society in London and is a member of the International Panel for Climate Change that shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore in 2007.
He describes a statistical model using analogue years. Dynamical models use proposed mathematically represented constructs of natural drivers (and the usual anthropogenic drivers thrown in for good measure). Greenhouse gases are a major component of these dynamical models and are usually represented as a fudge factor. I have yet to find a dynamical model that does NOT include anthropogenic mechanisms. Some statistical models tack on a trend fudge factor (as a nod to AGW greenbacks?).
“Lupo is a fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society in London and is a member of the International Panel for Climate Change that shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore in 2007.”
Tainted Love then.
Dry and Warm in the South East…
“The La Niña pattern has continued into the summer and will continue to affect the weather,”
That explains the 18 to 20 inches of rain that Gulf Coast has had over the last week or so.
The news media simply cherry pick any natural variation in weather patterns that occurs and then propose pure conjecture that such changes represent climate change. NBC news with Brian Williams plays this game almost every night. Last year is was tornadoes but now that 2012 has experienced more than 700 fewer tornadoes than last year according to NOAA data that outcome is hidden from view unless a major tornado hits some poor city and then its extreme weather climate change all over again. The NBC “Chief Environmental Reporter” with her BA degree in American Studies is hardly qualified to be lecturing any buddy about science related issues. Perhaps so called news programs like this one should just be boycotted until they start presenting objective information on weather and climate versus pushing completely biased climate fear political agendas.
So – by ignoring all the empirical evidence and persisting with cherry-picked corrupt science, he picks up a Nobel prize. Now, by studiously ignoring everyone who has vainly spent many years trying to draw attention to the empirical evidence, including those who are already making reasonably reliable weather predictions based on natural factors, he presents himself as having made a unique discovery which “could help scientists develop more accurate weather prediction models – thus putting himself in line for another Nobel prize?
WAAh
NOAA’s “patterns” for ENSO events roughly match what I’ve found:
http://devoidofnulls.wordpress.com/2011/08/25/enso-and-us-climateweather-revisited/
Although I am worried there may be some problems with the site I use to create this composites.
But an important point:
ENSO is associated with these weather patterns, it is not necessarily the cause. You may have noticed that Alaska has been cool and much of the US warm already, even though the positive ENSO anomalies only recently began and haven’t become a full fledged El NIno yet. Also, Florida has been much wetter already (someone else said Texas, too).
The atmosphere seems to get locked in to doing certain things at the same time. So ENSO correlates with things that the atmosphere tends to do when there are ENSO events of a certain kind. But if these can precede the event itself, they can’t be caused by the event.
The pattern match is useful for seasonal weather prediction, though.
Ouch. Guys, Anthony Lupo is a nice guy, and not an alarmist at all. Knock it off.
I think he is way off base on his seasonal forecast, though: needs to match ground truth-so far NOPE.
You guys should check out the Heartland presentations he gave, or the stuff he’s done for ICECAP. Pretty good.
Arctic.
Not in Kansas City, Missouri:
Five Warmest Marchs from 1889 to 2012:
1. 1910 with an average maximum temperature of 69.6
2. 1946 with an average maximum temperature of 65.6
3. 1938 with an average maximum temperature of 63.4
4. 1945 with an average maximum temperature of 62.5
5. 1918 with an average maximum temperature of 62.4
http://cache.ltvcms.com/wdaf/almanac/marmaxt.html
http://fox4kc.com/weather/almanac/
Title: Spring warmth: weather, not climate
Thank you; it’s been a little warmer here in Tejas than usual for spring but of course a rational reason exists for same …
We have also had rain, for which we are grateful!
.
Yes, this ridge took the Southern branch of the jet that comes ashore usually around Los Angeles and arched it over the central plains as far North as Chicago which brought warm Gulf air much father into the central US than average. In fact, right this very minute you can see a similar configuration with warm Southern air being pulled from Texas all the way up to Minnesota and into Canada:
http://hint.fm/wind/
When I see these charts they always seem to represent the two extremes. (La Nina or El Nino)
Why is there no chart for the effects of a ‘Neutral’ or near neutral condition? Seems that there should be since it has become apparant to me that in Texas (and looks like Florida, too) this year: ‘neutral’ is not the same as ‘el nino’.
And of course, in this instance I am referring to the prevelance fo dry drought-like conditions @ the lower latitudes of both TX and FL as illustrated on the EL Nino chart above.
This is a topic that comes up all the time when the weather is a ltitle warmer than people think it should be. If there is a week or two in April that is fairly warm they start talking about Global Warming. First, their assessment is only local so how do they know it’s a global event? Just because it’s a little warm in Philadelphia doesn’t mean it isn’t bitter cold elsewhere on the planet. Second, they disregard when in the summer it’s a lot cooler than expected. If they want to talk about global temperatures average over the planet and over some timeframe then nobody should ever utter “Global Warming” based on a few weeks of local observation.
This to me is the major problem with the idea of global average temperature. If the springtime is unusually hot and the summer is unusually cold, and the northern hemisphere is hot while the southern hemisphere is cold, what does averaging all that together tell you? Put one foot in a bucket of boiling water and the other foot in a bucket of ice water. The average temperature is warm but should be tolerable.
So even though the spring was a little warm here in Philadelphia (but not warmer than it was at the turn of the century based on some 100 year old newspapers I have), it’s actually been a fairly cool and wet start of summer. I hear no shock on the local news about how cool it’s been. Raise the temperature a little and you have “is this a sign of global warming?” all over the news.
Just out of interest I decided to question a article in Huffington Post (Green). The article, which prompted it, stated that, in a recent survey 82% of Americans said they had experienced “unusual weather” this year. A supplementary question also got the response that 60+% put this down to “Global Warming”. I suggested this wasn’t particularly scientific but the site’s fanboy (who had 200+ “likes” against his name) said the science was settled and that was that. He then said “the trolls had arrived and wouldn’t it be nice if they engaged in debate/discussion instead of rubbishing the science.”
I don’t think there is much chance of any logical discussion of what has become an emotional topic.
Only the oldest farts have been through a complete PDO cycle. For most Americans the current negative PDO is untrodden territory. ENSO behavior within the PDO is also novel for most (including me, vague childhood memories of the end of the last negative PDO aside).
Andrew – these weather patterns may precede the ENSO index, but the ENSO index itself might possibly lag the actual ENSO event. I think the index is based on atmospheric pressure differences between two points (??) so presumably might not be detected until after the actual ENSO event has started. ie, it is still not ruled out that the weather events are caused by ENSO events. More likely maybe that both are caused by something else, but not yet proven??
BTW, Tony Lupo may indeed be a nice guy, but it appears he’s riding on the unacknowledged coattails of others instead of giving credit where due.
That’s regional balance. Milder somewhere often means cooler somewhere else but the media and laymen in general often forget to mention that or even bother.
For this the guy gets paid? Steven Godderd has been doing the comparisons for free. The two Joes have a pretty reliable record of predictions using information from the old data, and the list goes on. Someone made the statement that this guy is a good guy and that may be; but this study is hardly worthy of great praise as it simply repeats what we already know. The climate cycles and changes. My big concern is the constant manipulation of the temperature data. I think some people , Hansen comes to mind , should go to prison.
Sign a petition to make tax-payer funded research papers free to the public!
http://rankexploits.com/musings/2012/19670/
Up until the last two weeks I have been of the opinion that Texas has been cooler this Spring, especially in May.
Lupo doesn’t know how to spell arctic.
Yes, it was a warm March in the upper Midwest. It was great, I played golf 10 times when I usually am lucky if I can play at all. Interestingly, last year was much colder and snowy. It was also a La Niña year. So, it appears there are multiple factors involved. In this case the AO appears to be the factor that led to the big difference.
Mike Jonas says:
June 14, 2012 at 9:11 am
Did you read the full story? It’s at http://cafnrnews.com/2012/06/months-of-extremes/ . Did you note it is a press release? Note that it says:
I believe I have said this here before. In my study of tree rings from Iowa (about twenty years ago), one cycle really jumps out. It appears to be slightly less than twenty years long. We should just now be entering into the part of the cycle where we should see poor growing conditions for trees in Iowa. I remember when I wrote an article about this, I was wondering if the mid 90s would be poor conditions, or whether it would be like the time around 1915 where there appeared to be back to back El Ninos to moderate any hot/dry weather. I believe we are now in a period where La Ninas should be more common than El Ninos, so it would surprise me if we don’t see some really poor growing years over the next six years in the middle of the country. I believe I also said that, if this does happen, many would try to use it to push for action on global warming.
What warm weather??
In NW Europe, its been the coldest (and wettest?) spring on record, and this month is likely to follow suit. Its been F-F-Freezing.
.
Odd?
Any how here is the post that did not appear.
Yes, I’m an activist. It works. “SwiftBoat”, “Climate Gate E-Mails”, Fast and Furious whistleblowers.
Get inside these CO2 con’s lie loop. Find the few good people being used.
Give them a safe place to document/info drop.
Provide help and support when and if they are fired attacked.
How small can the person/blog be that is the “David” of the deal.
http://www.sipseystreetirregulars.blogspot.com
so some things can not be posted
fine, later
Dang, I wrote /blockqoute in my previous comment. I don’t have my blockquote emacs macro at work.
Anthony, what’s the source and date of this article? It’s rather different from what I found at http://cafnrnews.com/2012/06/months-of-extremes/ .
The most important thing about this work is that it appears to be more data then model dependent. Lets all give it up for empirical science.
So how exactly do you have weather without it being climate? Do you understand what “climate” means?
Andrew says:”Alaska has been cool”
Opps, sorry, that’s consistent with La Nina, at least according to the chart, not El Nino. Silly me. But, warm Northern US is consistent with an El Nino pattern.
Mike Jonas says: “think the index is based on atmospheric pressure differences between two points”
AFAIK, the ENSO meter is based off of SST, you are probably think of the Southern Oscillation Index. And it’s Tahiti and Darwin, I believe.
Barbee says: “I am referring to the prevelance fo dry drought-like conditions @ the lower latitudes of both TX and FL as illustrated on the EL Nino chart above.”
I assume you mean La Nina, as the chart above shows Florida and Texas Wet for El Nino.
Which is what I’ve found with my composites, and indeed we’ve (South Florida) had wetter weather coming out of La Nina, although, still before El Nino has begun.
And the UK summer is looking nice as usual, I’m sure the MET mentioned no rain this year in April.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2159048/UK-weather-Forecasters-predict-major-flooding-Atlantic-storm-sweeps-in.html
David L. says:
June 14, 2012 at 10:07 am
Raise the temperature a little and you have “is this a sign of global warming?” all over the news
Here is the reason why!
http://drtimball.com/2012/ipcc-control-calculations-of-annual-human-co2-production-for-political-agenda/
Wll, late spring here in Victoria BC is not warm (it was unusually warm several weeks ago, also my impression is that precipitation patterns were different this year.
25 states did not set a March record. 5 are from 1907.
Alabama 64.5 1907
Arizona 58.4 2004
California 58.8 1934
Colorado 42.2 2004
Delaware 54.1 1921
Florida 70.7 1907
Idaho 43 1934
Louisiana 68.5 1907
Maine 35.4 1946
Maryland 52.8 1921
Massachusetts 44.1 1946
Mississippi 65.1 1907
Montana 41.9 1986
Nevada 49.6 1934
New Hampshire 39.4 1946
New Mexico 50.3 1910
North Carolina 59.4 1945
North Dakota 40.7 1910
Oregon 48.3 1934
South Carolina 63.1 1945
Texas 66.2 1907
Utah 46.1 2004
Virginia 55.2 1945
Washington 46.9 1992
Wyoming 39.8 1986
In my article ‘The long slow thaw’ I examined thousands of contemporary weather records in reconstructing CET from 1660 back to 1538.
I made this comment;
“Due to its geographical location British weather is often quite mobile and periods of hot, cold, dry or wet weather tend to be relatively short lived. If such events are longer lasting than normal, or interrupted and resumed, that can easily shape the character of a month or a season. Reading the numerous references there is clear evidence of ‘blocking patterns,’ perhaps as the jet stream shifts, or a high pressure takes up residence, feeding in winds from a certain direction which generally shape British weather.”
http://judithcurry.com/2011/12/01/the-long-slow-thaw/
Looking at the first two graphics of this WUWT article the position of the jet stream has a fundamental effect on shaping the weather in that period. Either by itself- or in conjunction with one of the ocean oscillations- the jet streams seem to meander and ‘stick’ in position causing –in the case of the UK- long periods of westerlies (warm/wet) or easterlies (cold/dry in winter, hot/dry in summer)
As such it increasingly seems to me they are one of the great effects on our climate. Has anyone seen a good article on jet streams and their influence or got any special knowledge on the subject?
tonyb
The average of the global March, April and May values according to GISS is (0.47 + 0.55 + 0.65)/3 = 0.557. That number would give a global ranking of 7th on GISS. (2010 was the warmest at 0.63.)
In contrast, the average of the global March, April and May values according to RSS is (0.074 + 0.333 + 0.233)/3 = 0.213. That number would give a global ranking of 10th on RSS. (1998 was the warmest at 0.55.)
To contrast March with May only 6 of the 48 contiguous states have set a record this century.
Warmest May this century
Arizona 72.1 2000
California 69.6 2001
Delaware 69.2 2004
Maryland 69 2004
Nevada 62.1 2001
Rhode Island 61.8 2010
Warmest May before 1900
Georgia 76.2 1896
Idaho 58.2 1897
Indiana 68.4 1896
Kentucky 71.5 1896
Michigan 62.4 1896
Mississippi 77 1896
North Carolina 72.3 1896
Oklahoma 75 1896
South Carolina 76.5 1896
West Virginia 67.3 1896
mfo says:
June 14, 2012 at 9:48 am
Not in Kansas City, Missouri:
Five Warmest Marchs from 1889 to 2012:
If this old fool remembers rightly, some or all of those marchs were followed by cold winters. Now there’s a thought.
I had mentioned elsewhere that I have a list of all time record temps for Columbus Ohio that I obtained in 2007 and again in 2012. The 2012 list included ties, the 2007 list did not. Aside from things like record highs for a date in the 2012 list being lower than the same day’s record in the 2007 list, I just noticed that this tie did not show up in the 2012 list.
2012 list 2007 list
17-Mar 74 2003 Mar-17 74 1889
Curious.
“Only the oldest farts have been through a complete PDO cycle. For most Americans the current negative PDO is untrodden territory. ENSO behavior within the PDO is also novel for most (including me, vague childhood memories of the end of the last negative PDO aside).”
I remember the end of the last negative PDO. It was 1976-77. Back then, scientists dubbed it the Great Pacific Climate Shift. If memory serves me correctly, the winter of 76/77 came very early with devastating autumn storms in California (temps plunged well below freezing even in Death Valley), and strong winds damaged much of the citrus crop in So Cal. By early December artic air masses invaded the Eastern Third of the US, with lows in Chicago around -5 F. The Great Lake Snow Belt kicked in just after Thanksgiving. The following Summer was a scorcher for the eastern half of the US (remember the Son of Sam Summer? Black outs and brown outs all over New England). And the followiing Winter of 1977-78 produced a number of record blizzards from the Plains eastward. Summer came early in 1978, as high temps of over 90 degrees were common all over New England and the Great Lakes beginning in late April. Two years later, the horrendous drought and heatwave of 1980 occured (The Bermuda High extended all the way to Vancouver that summer. San Antonio Texas had high temps above 110 deg for more than a month without a drop of rain).
I think the season variations we’re seeing now go beyond ENSO. It is most likely a combination of regional variations in Atlantic and Pacific SSTs coupled with some unknown teleconnection. How the Hadley Cell waxes and wanes is still a mystery. But, we should have seen this coming last winter when low precip and warmer than normal temperatures dominated many regions of North America. It is too bad that alarmists use these “unusual” weather patterns to push their agenda. They aren’t really that unusual at all.
Hurricane One
Category 1 hurricane (SSHS)
Duration May 16 – May 21
Intensity 80 mph (130 km/h) (1-min), Unknown
Hurricane one formed on May 16. On strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane and took a curve away from the mainland and dissipated on May 21.This hurricane did not affect land, but was the first May hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin, and one of only 4 today.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889_Atlantic_hurricane_season
It’s been an unusually cool spring and cool early summer thus far in my section of Authentic Northern California. The rain in my locale has also been underreported, almost 3/4 less than rain in my yard. What is this about a California heat record?
It’s typically in the nineties (f) this time of year, instead it’s been in the pleasant seventies. It’s absolutely perfect out! I guess I must be getting all the nice weather, sorry to be such a hog about it.
http://www.stormpulse.com/1889-hurricane-season
Well here in the UK our central heating has been coming on each morning for the past 3 weeks. Many years have passed since this last happened in june if ever. I blame global warming and not weather because I am completely bonkers.
““During a period of La Niña the sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Eastern Central Pacific Ocean are lower than normal by 3 to 6 degrees,” Lupo said. “This typically directs the jet stream from the Pacific on a northeastern path over Canada.”
==
Tail wags dog…
“Current temperatures are on track to make this June the coldest on record.”
http://www.vancouversun.com/travel/Vancouver+stormy+summer+pace+record+cold/6778531/story.html
Also; It’s ‘Intergovernmental’ not ‘International’.
Now, as I mentioned previously, the best we can do is look at analog years (that is, years with similar atmospheric and oceanic conditions relative to the present). Since we are still firmly in the grips of a persistent La Nina, the analogs I’ve chosen will try to reflect that. We really don’t have a lot of data to go in regards to a three year La Nina; since 1950, there have only been three such periods (1954-1956, 1973-1975, and 1998-2000).
http://www.talkingpoints.co/?p=359
http://www.stormpulse.com/1954-hurricane-season
For the last 18 months the weather in Vancouver, BC has been generally colder, wetter and darker (more cloud cover). For an region that normally gets more than it’s fair share of this weather the last 18 months have really sucked thanks to two back to back La Ninas. Ironically the last El Nino occurred right when we hosted the 2010 Winter Olympics, when we had 17C sunny days in February and had to truck in snow to the Cypress Mountain location.
And what is going on in the southern hemisphere? Last time I checked (last week) parts of Australia and NZ were experiencing some record, or near record, low temperatures.
I quote:
“Tony Lupo, chair of the Department of Soil, Environment and Atmospheric Sciences in the College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources at MU, created computer models with global weather records and ship captains’ logs to determine why these two months were unusually warm. He discovered that the preceding months were also dry and warm, as well as the previous summers, which led him to determine that both 2012 and 1889 were La Niña years.”
That is complete nonsense. 2012 can at best be described as an ENSO neutral year while 1889 is definitely an El Nino year. ENSO has nothing to do with these two outliers whose cause must be determined by studying the relevant climate data. First I suggest that Lupo should acquaint himself with the global temperature curves that display ENSO phases. Secondly, I suggest that computer models are not what should be used in view of their notorious inability to correctly forecast global warming. There has not been any warming this century while IPCC AR4 forecast was that twentieth century warming should proceed at 0.2 degrees per decade.
Encouraging. From the article Dr “Lupo’s main field of study is a phenomenon called atmospheric blocking”. He also mentions the AMO. Good!
In 1889 the AMO would have been in the same phase as now, given the 60-65 year cyclic signal exhibited. But he fails to mention the other biggie…that solar cycle 12 just completed was the weakest in the last 190 years, present cycle excepted.
And common to weak solar activity…increased jet stream blocking. SC24 is looking to be even weaker than SC12.
Look to the Sun…
Typically by mid-June, the HEAT is ON here in North Carolina. This year, not so much. Mid-June and dewpoints are upper-50s, windows open, forecast this weekend is 79F on Saturday with a low of 57F. Well below average. June is making up for March. If this is Global Warming, I’m going to start my car and let it idle all night. I’d take a whole summer of this in a heartbeat…
Warm in the Midwest. Huh. Thought it was called “global” warming.
“Global” warming ended in 1998. Look it up for yourself. The earth goes through warming and cooling phases all the time. Right now it decided to stop warming. I know that missing warming is a “travesty” to global warming advocates.
Heading west on I-84 into Portland, Oregon just before 6 pm today (June 14,2012), I saw a sun dog in a layer of cirrus clouds. This is the closest to summer that I have observed this phenomenon based on ice crystals.
It may come as a shock to many who post on this blog but weather in the USA isn’t the weather for entire globe. Here in the UK the weather since March has been wet and cold culminating in a miserably cold and wet June. So warmth in the midwest of the USA isn’t the harbinger of global warming doom.
Been really cold and wet in southern Alberta. No sign of warm on the horizon either.
apachewhoknows says:
June 14, 2012 at 11:07 am
> so some things can not be posted
> fine, later
One thing that everyoneleseknows is that the unpaid staff of moderators can’t be on duty all the time. Patience.
@Ian says: June 14, 2012 at 9:46 pm – You do know what ‘this blog’ is don’t you?
Shevva says @12.09 am “@Ian says: June 14, 2012 at 9:46 pm – You do know what ‘this blog’ is don’t you?”
I do Shevva but I did note that no one else had commented that warmth in the USA isn’t the same as global warming so I thought I’d make the point
Ian~ a Major point here is that the USA is NOT the entire globe- but the ‘man-made’ global warming crowd, often acts like it is, and is in fact pointing to the mild winter as proof that the Earth is heating up rapidly.
Alan A. says:
June 14, 2012 at 10:19 am
That’s regional balance. Milder somewhere often means cooler somewhere else but the media and laymen in general often forget to mention that or even bother.
_______________________________
Yes no one mentions all the cold/cool weather associated with this. I am in North Carolina and it is 59F. (15C ) The mean temperature for June so far is 68F (20C). We have had ten days where the min. temperature has been below 60F (15C) and five of those have been 51F (10C) The Average min temp is 64F (18C) vs a real min of 60F (15C) so far this month. The average mean is 86F (30C), a far cry from a real mean of 68F (20C) so far this month. So far we have had 45 days of cool weather in May and June.
We had one of the most beautiful Marches on record! VERY warm. Now we are also having one of the most beautiful Junes on record! Very COOL. The difference is June is supposed to be HOT, so when the average is in the high 70s and low 80s, that is VERY Cool. And of course March is supposed to be cold, so when the averages were in the low 70s, upper 60s, that was WARM.
What it is is average when you average the 2 together. What it means is great weather this year. Not climate.
As ferd noted elsewhere, here in Vancouver we’re having “Junuary” weather. That blue swash to the upper left of the continent, there. Not nice.
There are more accurate maps of the ENSO impact on temperature and precipitation produced by the NCEP.
This is world-wide correlation of March-April-May temperatures to an El Nino. For a La Nina, just reverse the colors (Blue to Yellow and Yellow to Blue).
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/regressions/diag.temp.regr.MAM.png
Basically Texas and the US southeast should be up to +1.0C above normal. Central Russia +1.0C above normal. Northeast North America -1.0C below normal. And that is exactly the pattern observed (understanding that the impacts will be off by a few hundred kms from event to event).
Precipitation M-A-M. Reverse the colors again for a La Nina.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/regressions/diag.prec.regr.MAM.png
Otter @2.37am you make a very valid point
No warmth here in the midwest. It was warm in March, but it’s been unseasonably cool since April. Dewpoints the past few days have been in the 30s and 40s in mid June!
Ric Werme – I think that “picks up a Nobel prize” is a fair way of referring to his sharing the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore, but I’m happy to add that detail for clarification if you think it’s needed. That prize was indeed obtained “by ignoring all the empirical evidence and persisting with cherry-picked corrupt science“. I don’t think for a moment that the crime was committed by Tony Lupo personally, but like many others he kept silent, did he not?
I do accept your point that my “Now, by studiously ignoring everyone…” statement should have been directed at the author not at Tony Lupo.
Andrew: (and anyone else who noticed)
Yes, I had that reversed. La Nina dry and El Nino wet.
Thanks for correcting my espanol. 🙂
I usually don’t comment on these posts related to my work, but a few points need to be made. The point of this study is to show that these things have happened before, and this is not due to CO2. The media went bonkers with the warm March and we heard that it is global warming on steriods. The point was merely to say it is not unique. Many have made great points here, but we’re getting way off topic and top broad what we’re trying to do. The study is done by an undergraduate student and he is volunteering to do it, thus, it is not funded. I do realize that the rest of the world has not been warm during this spring.
The story itself was written by our University media. They have been very supportive of me. They would rather cite my IPCC credentials to keep others off their back. I must commend my institution for taking arrows for me. I have been part of the IPCC process since 1993. I have stuck with it because I feel it is better to critique (and challenge) them from within rather than from without. I continue to review their work as long as they’ll have me.
Thank you to all who have commented here. The robust discussion shows interest!
A few years back I read a number of studies which suggested that as global temperatures rose, the tropical band would be expected to widen as the Jet streams moved towards the poles.
As you know here in the UK, we’ve suffered from some cold winters recently, and now we have the most horrendous summer that I can ever remember. In each of the cases the explanation has been that the Jet Streams have moved futher south than is usual.
As a warming world was predicted to move the Jet Stream’s towards the poles, Is it reasonable to consider whether a cooling world moves them in the opposite direction?
TonyLupo says:
June 16, 2012 at 10:11 am
….They have been very supportive of me. They would rather cite my IPCC credentials to keep others off their back. I must commend my institution for taking arrows for me. I have been part of the IPCC process since 1993. I have stuck with it because I feel it is better to critique (and challenge) them from within rather than from without. I continue to review their work as long as they’ll have me…..
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Thank you for “venturing into the enemy camp” and trying to add a bit of balance and sense.