ENSO has gone slightly positive

After holding on zero for a couple of weeks, the WUWT ENSO meter has gone slightly positive:

As you can see, La Niña is fading:

 

And, the index itself is just above zero.

Niño 3.4 Region Sea Surface Temperature Index – July 2006 to Present

When values are Negative: Cooling/La Niña | Positive: Warming/El Niño

More at the WUWT ENSO page

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28 Responses to ENSO has gone slightly positive

  1. Jack says:

    Has anyone done a linking to the PDO? PDO flowing the way it is now, seems to correlate the La Nina rain very heavy rain in Queensland Australia. In the reverse direction, La Nina has barely a normal rain effect but the El Nino’s are very severe and lengthy.

  2. Bob Tisdale says:

    I posted the full May 2012 sea surface temperature yesterday for those interested:
    http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2012/06/11/may-2012-sea-surface-temperature-sst-anomaly-update/

  3. timetochooseagain says:

    Here in South Florida we’ve been having an “El Nino” wet season for a while now. Look at the accumulated precip in this plot:

    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/mfl/cliplot/KPBI2012plot.png

    to last year (“La Nina”):

    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/mfl/cliplot/KPBI2011plot.png

    Which makes me wonder, if the “effects” of ENSO on weather can precede the ENSO event itself, are they really “effects” or associated patterns?

  4. cui bono says:

    Interesting. Looking at Aqua channel 5, 2012 has just rubbed against 2010 levels for the first time this year. Looks like the rest of the year could be warm, after it\’s cold start. AGW will blame this on CO2, and crow loudly, whereas we\’ll be pointing to natural variation, and will duly get drowned out in the MSM prior to the next IPCC jolly.

  5. Barbee says:

    timetochooseagain is correct.
    Here in the Dallas vicinity we have been enjoying the effects of a “fading la Nina” for quite some time. (Breaking News: Texas drought over. YAY!)
    All of which is curious to me. Almost as if cause and effect are not quite in synch.

  6. WLF15Y says:

    Looking at the NRL animation, it appears the cold current (La Nina?) maybe beginning to overwhelm the slightly stronger than last year Easterly flowing current?

    http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/glb8_3b/html/anims/eqp/sst30d.gif

  7. Keith Pearson, formerly bikermailman, Anonymous no longer says:

    Here in West Texas, we’re rather happy for The Girl Child going buh bye. Year and a half of hot and dry, playing catch up the last few weeks. Just had a pleasant thunderstorm roll through, with possibilty of a wave in the middle of the night if it holds. Those of you who haven’t seen thunderstorms on the Great Plains, make an effort to do so. God’s fireworks show. Just leave the hail behind please. Don’t need a third roof in five years.

  8. Baa Humbug says:

    We will know in early July which way ENSO will go.
    Considering there isn’t much warm water along the coasts of Australia and Papua New Guinea, there really can’t be a strong El Nino in the pipe line.
    However, if the waters off the coast of Darwin warm up (quite cool at mo) and the barometre drops, we may see trade winds pick up. These trades will cool the Pacific surface waters.

    I still think neutral to weak La Nina from September to January, lots of rain in eastern Australia in spring/summer. Not science, just a guess.

  9. Probably not ENSO related, but yesterday, one the deep low pressure systems that circle Antarctica was far enough north to show on the Australian synoptic chart, central pressure was 950 mbar. I can’t recall seeing that before.

    Looking at the Indian Ocean synoptic chart, all the low pressure systems seem unusually far from Antarctica.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/indian_ocean.shtml

    Which seems to indicate the SH is in for a period of cooling.

  10. Mac the Knife says:

    Dang! There goes my ‘La Nina Three-pete’ prediction…… Still, if it moves us out of this extended cold and wet pattern here in the Seattle area, it will be well worth it.

    For 10 of the 12 years I have lived here, I have started swimming in a small lake when surface water temps reach 65F, usually near the Memorial Day weekend in May. That’s the minimum temp at which I can get my breathing to steady down enough to allow extended swimming. Last year, the late spring cold and wet trend moved that date to June 8th. This year, well…. it’s June 12th and the water temps are still a few degrees below 65F. The high temp today was 62F, with light drizzle.

    I’m going to build a fire in the wood stove….. again.

  11. Jim S says:

    Maybe I can take my extra blanket off this weekend and hang up my jacket for good (Portland, Oregon).

  12. Jeef says:

    Reasonably strong El Niño on the way…

  13. noaaprogrammer says:

    My Tay Berries are 2 weeks behind their usual date to ripen. (Southeastern Washington State, elevation 800 ft.) I need a much warmer summer than the last two summers to produce a good tomato crop.

  14. Bruce C says:

    This was posted on the weatherzone.com.au site today;

    El Nino tipped to form in spring
    By Will Ockenden, Wednesday June 13, 2012 – 12:56 EST
    Australia looks set to experience the same weather conditions this year that were responsible for the nation’s last devastating drought in the summer of 2009.
    The weather bureau says all of its models are pointing to an El Nino weather system forming in October.

    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/el-nino-tipped-to-form-in-spring/21874

  15. Jer0me says:

    ’bout bloody time! We are sick of all this rain over here on the west pacific rim….

  16. Stephen Richards says:

    http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

    I like this one. It’s a mite clearer

  17. Markus Fitzhenry says:

    This La Nina system is dissipating slower than the drenching given by the 1974 event.
    Waters along the east coast of Australia remain unseasonably warm.
    Tasman sea waters have not yet moved into the Southern Ocean currents.
    I do not expect another El Nino until the second half of 2013.

  18. James of the West says:

    @Philip Bradley – that antarctic low pressure system played havoc in south west corner of Western Australia. Winds up to 140kmh were measured but in my local area we had mature trees blown out of the ground all over the place. 4 on my property alone. I hope that isnt a pattern that will be repeated soon!

    On topic – I think it looks like the waters in eastern Nino 3 region are cooling fairly rapidly of late. I’m doubtful of an El-nino forming in the near future but who really knows.

  19. G. Karst says:

    Bob Tisdale says:
    June 12, 2012 at 6:22 pm

    I posted the full May 2012 sea surface temperature yesterday for those interested:
    http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2012/06/11/may-2012-sea-surface-temperature-sst-anomaly-update/

    Silly man – of course we are interested. Thanks for the time and labor. GK

  20. Steve says:

    All I know is that we disparately need rain in the upper Midwest. Beans are just lying in the dry soil, not germinating. This is not good. Lawns are turning brown. In June.

  21. SteveSadlov says:

    Maybe my rain dances are starting to have an effect!

  22. timetochooseagain says:

    Barbee says: “Here in the Dallas vicinity we have been enjoying the effects of a “fading la Nina” for quite some time. (Breaking News: Texas drought over. YAY!)
    All of which is curious to me. Almost as if cause and effect are not quite in synch.”

    Texas and Florida seem to share the same “association” of drought with La Nina. I noticed this when the Texas drought was in the news, and we were having drought here, too. Of course, drought in Florida is quite different from drought in Texas. There’s likely a connection between them. ENSO is correlated with the connection, but it isn’t necessarily the cause. Hm…

  23. Harold Pierce Jr says:

    Anthony

    Is not the ENSO meter from NOAA’s website? They might get a little ticked off if you claim it is a WUWT product.

  24. RobW says:

    Did not NOAA just declare this was the warmest spring on record?
    Then there is this:
    http://www.vancouversun.com/travel/June+pace+record+cold/6778531/story.html

    Why do I hear Homer Simpsom saying…

  25. Keith says:

    WLF15Y says:
    June 12, 2012 at 8:12 pm
    Looking at the NRL animation, it appears the cold current (La Nina?) maybe beginning to overwhelm the slightly stronger than last year Easterly flowing current?

    http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/glb8_3b/html/anims/eqp/sst30d.gif

    I was just going to post the exact same thing :-)

    Looking to my amateur eyes like La Nada for the second half of this year, with a flat-to-rising NINO 3.4 SST index for the next month before dropping back down for the rest of the year, but in both cases staying within 0.5C of the norm. The next couple of weeks will confirm the trend one way or another, it would seem.

    Much happening in the Antarctic stratosphere of late?

  26. Daniel Vogler says:

    And coincidentally, Solar Maximum is building too. correlation to ENSO with SSNs?

  27. phlogiston says:

    Edim says:
    June 12, 2012 at 11:32 pm
    Another La Nina is brewing.
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.gif

    Yes that cold tongue off Peru suggesting upwelling is not going away.

    Maybe those “Waiting for El Ninot” will have to wait a little longer.

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