The “bottomless well of nonsense on disasters and climate change”

From the “weather is not climate unless we say it is” department.

While weepy Bill McKibben…

Twitter / @350: This was a tragic weekend …

This was a tragic weekend in the midwest of the USA. It’s more dangerous evidence of climate change: bit.ly/yeLOxI#350ppm

Brad Johnson: Americans Get It: Global Warming Is Poisoning Our Weather

and Joe Romm: Tornadoes, Extreme Weather And Climate Change, Revisited

…wail about the latest tornado outbreak being a result of the catch all “climate change” (translation: universal boogeyman) it is worth noting that Dr. Pielke Jr. has an interesting and germane post titled: An Embarassment of Riches

He says:

There is seemingly a bottomless well of nonsense on disasters and climate change. I have long ago accepted that such nonsense is, like the presence of arguments rejecting the basic science of climate change, a situation to be lived with rather than changed. Even so, I can still poke some fun.

Reality Check: The ability of the reinsurance industry to accurately reflect the state of the science of disasters and climate change has long been questionable. The industry is currently awash in money, a condition that Guy Carpenpter characterized just a few months ago as “the reinsurance sector remains adequately capitalized with a significant excess capital position” (PDF). In such a context, when reinsurers ask the government to take on some of their risks justified by “climate change,” you should hold tight to your wallet. Conflicted.For anyone who is interested in the actual science of disasters and climate change, I’ll be speaking on the subject later today here at CU (for others, just have a look at TCF, chapters 7 and 8).

Having a copy of the ClimateFix myself, I can also recommend it and chapters 7 and 8. – Anthony

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The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Won’t Tell You About Global Warming is available at Amazon.com

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42 thoughts on “The “bottomless well of nonsense on disasters and climate change”

  1. If you want a bottomless well of nonsense then check out this “documentary”! It really takes the cake in exaggerated claims and apocalyptic chicken little predictions!

  2. The alarmist drum beat has quickened lately,
    with multiple pieces even in the wretched LA Times,
    which conveniently ignored recent record-cold abroad.

    It must be pre-Conference fever, (when is their next one, anyway?)
    so expect a flood of ‘scientific papers’ soon,
    with new warmista ‘results’.

    Science just ran another Arctic boo-hoo about dried-up ponds,
    blaming China’s soot-warming on CO2.
    Nature has weekely cry-fests about ‘accelerations’,
    endlessly sobbing ‘we told you so’, or my favorite:
    ‘O no, it’s even worse than we ever thought’.

    Whenever a Warmista rag has their mantra ‘Climate Change’,
    remember to read it aloud in a tremulous, grief-wracked moan of fear,
    as if you were about to be eaten alive by lions.

  3. Good grief, suddenly “global warming” is the US having a mild winter, but when Romanians drown in snow and die from cold, that’s global warming too!

    All while the world is actually quite a bit cooler than the 30 year average:

    http://policlimate.com/climate/gfs_t2m_bias.html

    And tornadoes typically occur when Canadian cold meets southwestern moist and warm air – i.e. the opposite situation of what they’ve been preaching all along (“polar amplification”).

  4. Jeff Masters is at it again…

    http://www.vancouversun.com/Warm+winter+helped+fuel+tornado+outbreak/6253091/story.html

    “This year’s unusually mild winter has led to ocean temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico that are approximately 1 degrees C (1.8 degrees F) above average,” says meteorologist Jeff Masters of the Weather Underground. This places it among the top ten warmest values on record for this time of year, going back to the 1800s, he says.
    “Friday’s tornado outbreak was fueled, in part, by unusually warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico due to the high water temperatures there,” Masters says.

    It is of course known that moist air flows north because of high water temperatures… /sarc

  5. I could have sworn that the last two months global average temperatures were below the thirty year average. Could somebody explain the mechanism that makes global warming produce more tornadoes EVEN WHEN GLOBAL TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW NORMAL.

  6. On the Guardian thread:
    Eric Adler says:
    March 4, 2012 at 9:21 am
    It is my understanding that the very scary projections are not for the current period, but rather for 50 to 100 years in the future. I don’t see why it is significant that they haven’t materialized to date.

    I wish they would all get up to date on the revised script. Is it happening now or in 50 to a 100 years time?

  7. @ Rúnar says:
    March 5, 2012 at 11:14 am

    If you want a bottomless well of nonsense then check out this “documentary”! It really takes the cake in exaggerated claims and apocalyptic chicken little predictions!

    From the video: “Many scientists agree that……………” . Define “many”. And also define “scientists”, and “agree”. :-)

  8. I suppose it would be too much to ask for Mr. McKibben and his fellow CAGW believers to restrain themselves at least until after all the funerals are done? I suppose decency and respect for fellow humans doesn’t matter when you are trying to Save the Planet (C).

  9. In June 2010 I posted a 30 year Climate Forecast on my blog at
    climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com
    part of it explains the tornado outbreaks in the US in 2011 and 12 which are indicative of the current global cooling trend.
    “There will be a steeper temperature gradient from the tropics to the poles so that violent thunderstorms with associated flooding and tornadoes will be more frequent in the USA, At the same time the jet stream will swing more sharply North – South thus local weather in the Northern hemisphere in particular will be generally more variable with occasional more northerly heat waves and more southerly unusually cold snaps. In the USA hurricanes may strike the east coast with greater frequency in summer and storm related blizzards more common in winter.
    The southern continents will be generally cooler with more frequent droughts and frost and snowin winter,
    Arctic and Antarctic sea ice may react differentially to an average global cooling. We might expect sea ice to increase in the Antarctic but in the NH the Arctic Oscillation while bringing cooler temperatures further south may also occasionaly bring warmer air into the Arctic with possible relative loss of sea ice in that area during those years”
    The generally more meridional jet stream during global cooling brings a greater temperature contrast across the frontal boundaries resulting in more frequent and more violent tornados and damaging thunderstorms.

  10. The end is nigh. Outdoor hockey rinks in Canada will be a thing of the past according some new study.

    http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/03/05/global-warning-could-spell-the-end-of-canadas-outdoor-hockey-rink/

    A team of Canadian climate scientists is predicting the widespread disappearance of outdoor hockey rinks across the country in the next 50 years due to global warming…

    Oh wait…they are thing of the past because of our economy and desire to play hockey and skate in comfortable indoor rinks. Doh. ☺

    I can’t remember when and where I saw an actual outdoor skating rink. It sure as heck has little to do with climate. 95% cultural and 5% weather.

  11. I was just a young lad on Palm Sunday of 1965. 37 tornadoes all over the midwest only more severe than this last one. How history repeats itself. Must of been from all the coal burners back then that weren’t on line yet. I remember sitting in the back of our 61 VW with my brother, dad driving uncle in the passenger seat. Keith says, pull over and he looked at the hail and it was all irregular in shape. Must be storms coming (he was a navigator during WW2 on a B25). All of a sudden the VW starts lifting up and roofs and trees are flying by. My old pastor here in Montana was in the same tornado cluster in Indiana.

  12. A social movement would appear to be on it’s last legs when it has to point to random storm, flood and other such events, and attempt to link that back to CAGW. Believers will believe it of course, but it’s a hard sell to convince the public. (Not unless long term trends can be cited, which tends to inevitably be missing.) They’ll just find push-back instead.

  13. Cardin Drake, t
    The driving forces behind tornadoes have nothing whatsoever to do with the overall global temperature. Nothing. It is the meeting of a cold front with a warm zone while simultaneously interacting with a strong Jet Stream. A-there needs to be sufficient warm moisture (to help drive the mesocyclone formation which creates a tornado at the surface. B-the cold front needs to be moving. Storms on stationary fronts tend to be short-lived, as they grow until they corrupt the atmospheric environment where they started. C-there needs to be a Jet Stream overhead which will aid in the evacuation of air from the top of the mesocyclone “super cell”. I tracked the Henryville, IN storm from just after Bolden, IN until it spawned tornadoes in Clermont County, Ohio, near where I grew up and where I still have friends living. I looked at the split jet stream with north and south jets converging over the region and moving rapidly to the northeast, and I knew it wasn’t going to be good. That cell traveled from north and slightly west of Louisville to east of the Cincinnati area in a little over an hour and a half on Friday, which was incredible forward velocity. It tracked a little south of the direct path over time, as severe super-cells tend to “turn right” as they continually ingest air at a tremdous pace. On the radar image, the debris ball visible from the definite hook echo at Henryville was terrifying to see as I knew there was a long-track F4 or greater tornado on the ground at that point. I called it on Facebook as it was happening.

    Temperture GRADIENT on a frontal boundary and jet stream winds drive tornadoes, NOT average global temps… Norman Page hits the nail squarely on the head. I expect to see more storms like this if the Jet Stream continues to bring fronts off the Alaskan waters and Canadian interior this spring. The air temps ahead of these storms weren’t really very high at all, but the air on the back side was so much colder that it “drove” the convection by slamming into the warm air at an incredible pace. I hope this helps…

  14. Eric — I grew up in the same area; Felicity, OH. Tornadoes there are, well, a part of life. The damage they do is always horrific, but we had them back when the same people screaming about “warming” were screaming about the “coming ice age”.

  15. Considering La Nina means greater severe weather in the midwest and southeast and weathermen have been saying it since December, who has the better prediction model again? Nothing can dissuaed the true believers.

  16. We now get Weather Bombs instead of storms in New Zealand like the one last week. http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/6522245/More-storms-likely-theory

    NIWA climate scientist Andrew Tait said the storm was consistent with the climate change theory that such events could become more common.

    But statistically there was no evidence yet to show the frequency of vigorous storms was changing.

    It was “a very, very difficult thing” to show statistically, because storms as strong as that on the weekend were rare, Tait said.

    According to a theory of climate change, a warmer atmosphere could hold more moisture and therefore storms could have more of a punch in future.

    The weekend weather was consistent with that theory, but it was difficult to say whether that particular storm could be attributed to a warmer atmosphere, Tait said.

    If it cant be attributed then why say it?

  17. McKibben & Co. seem to try to give the Westboro Baptist Church some Gaia inspired competition.

  18. Where’s Dr. Ryan Maue? Haven’t noticed him here for awhile. This talk of surges in tornadoes seems right up his alley.

  19. “Weather” is – as pointed out above – instantaneous with respect to climate.

    Two months of “colder than the 1970’s” global temperature baseline as measured by satellite means that ANY weather events (storms and tornadoes most explicitly, hurricanes were they in season, and local winds (San Ana’s for example) CANNOT be due in any measure to “climate” changes from 1970 to 2012, from 1870 to 2012, or any other interval. Storms and fronts like this are specifically results of the current day’s temperatures and air mass flows from one pressure system to another. Global temperature – especially when you realize that these “scientists” – if they ever were such – would need to compare weather events to another season of identical temperature .. such as the mid-to-late 50’s .. for equal headlines.

    Floods, droughts, growing season increases? La Nina/El Nino patterns? Sure, you could (almost) make a claim that any two months of global temperature would not affect a flood or drought or extreme snow levels – which, almost by their definitions, would/could require several weeks of changes.

    But today’s “weather” – and this storm front in particular – prove NOT that CAGW is happening or could happen or has not happened, but that today’s CAGW dogmatists ARE political and ideo-illogical extremists who have only a political and socialist determination to destroy and harm today’s civilization.

  20. I watched that film Hot Planet. I see that it is full of rubbish. It must of cost a lot of cash to produce. Can someone please point me to a website that discusses the film in detail? It must have had a least 30 to 40 blatant lies.

    I am reading: The world turned upside down by Melanie Phillips. She explains very well what is wrong with these people. I actually think that they are all crazy!

    I like this one: “Anything from Nature cannot be trusted anymore, as the peer review process there has been brothelized. “

  21. TomRude says on March 5, 2012 at 11:47 am

    It is of course known that moist air flows north because of high water temperatures… /sarc

    Warmer water yields: more precipable water in a given parcel of air spending time over that water in the Gulf and more J/kg of CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy)

    Don’t write off that ‘warmer water’ effect completely!

    One of the mets (Mark) on Fox41-WDRB (WDRB 41 Louisville, KY) made mention that because of the few cold fronts that made it as far as the Gulf this year is partly the reason for those ‘warmer waters’ …

    .

  22. News report, an assistant professor in the department of geography at Simon Fraser University, and of University of Victoria, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Kirsten Zickfeld reported on BCTV news tonight, computer programs tell her skiing on the north shore mountains and Whistler will be be at risk due to low or non existent snowfalls in thirty years time. Her program tells her even if C02 emissions are reduced to zero skiing will just be a memory. The University of Victoria is also the home of Andrew Weaver who is an adviser to the Provincial Liberal government when the carbon tax was brought in. Did we not hear something similar elsewhere about snow.

    On the same news program a Vancouver restaurant announced they are now carbon neutral. Sad to say say skiing will still get lousy. BCTV news a leader in unbiased reporting, sarc off.
    BC is also home to David Suzuki, need I say more.

  23. Heavy snow is falling tonight – mounting (and blowing and drifting) evidence of runaway global warming!

    Be very-scary frightened!
    The end is truly near!
    We haven’t had wild weather like this
    since the same time… …last year!

  24. The alarmist drum beat has quickened lately, with multiple pieces even in the wretched LA Times…Interstellar Bill 11:37 am.
    —————————————————————————–
    That comment reminded me of the L A Times article by Julie Cart April 2009: What will global warming look like? Scientists point to Australia http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-climate-change-australia9-2009apr09,0,7128426,full.story.
    Three years later, global warming looks like this http://resources0.news.com.au/images/2012/02/06/1226263/253388-queensland-floods-2012.jpg.
    The 100 year records show the rainfall trend has been generally going up http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rain&area=aus&season=0112&ave_yr=15.
    The 3 year anomaly (ref. 1961 – 1990): http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=latest&step=0&map=anomaly&period=36month&area=nat.

  25. Cardin Drake says:
    March 5, 2012 at 11:50 am
    I could have sworn that the last two months global average temperatures were below the thirty year average. Could somebody explain the mechanism that makes global warming produce more tornadoes EVEN WHEN GLOBAL TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW NORMAL.

    One number: 1974. A year in the midst of concerns about a coming Ice Age (anthropogenic, no less), where tornados lambasted the Alley. Except, back then there weren’t meme-blathering Gaian commentators grabbing the limelight, nor a blindered MSM. It’s all about being cool.

  26. >> It’s more dangerous evidence of climate change: bit.ly/yeLOxI#350ppm

    Note it’s “dangerous evidence of ” NOT ” dangerous climate change”
    He’s finally making sense, must be a freudian slip.

  27. Forgot to mention in the news broadcast with Professor Kirsten Zickfeld in my above post was also the mandatory sea level caused melting ice, including wait for it, melting pack ice with a picture of the arctic. Look up her bio, could be recruited by the team.

  28. TXRed says:
    March 5, 2012 at 12:04 pm

    I suppose it would be too much to ask for Mr. McKibben and his fellow CAGW believers to restrain themselves at least until after all the funerals are done? I suppose decency and respect for fellow humans doesn’t matter when you are trying to Save the Planet (C).

    ———————————–

    Squealing loudly and immediately to press home their puerile points is all part of the warmista credo.
    Not for them to have respect for the unfortunate victims of a natural disaster, not in their makeup to be reserved, no, theyre instantly screaming about death and “told ya so” and “repent! the end of the world in 2012!”. What a pile!

    Theyre pathetic media whores lacking an ounce of moral fibre just like their Gleicky hero so we shouldnt be surprised when hogs act like hogs.

  29. “Weather” is – as pointed out above – instantaneous with respect to climate.
    But isn’t “instantaneous” just so old fashionedly newtonianist. Surely a relativistic theory of climate change would alow an interpretaton in which space and time are integrated into a four dimensional manifold where “teleconnections” can take place in time as well as in space?

  30. That BBC disinformation:- Dr. Ian Stuart is a geologist so should know better that preach all that c**p. But of course he is preaching the BBC religious line not science.

  31. _Jim says:
    March 5, 2012 at 6:48 pm
    Spelling police here. “precipitable” not “precipable”

  32. Logic check for the warmarxists — more development means the same rate of tornadoes will cause more damage. Depending on the increase of development, more damage could occur even with less tornadoes.

    The warmarxists want you to stop erecting all those new houses & businesses so those nasty tornadoes don’t do so much damage! Huge pinwheels excepted, of course.

    This morning (days after the tornadoes) I wanted to see the forecast for the next couple days, so I reluctantly clicked the Disaster (weather) channel. I wondered how long it would take them to say “tornado”. It took 2 words….

  33. George says:
    March 5, 2012 at 3:23 pm

    Considering La Nina means greater severe weather in the midwest and southeast and weathermen have been saying it since December, who has the better prediction model again? Nothing can dissuaed the true believers.

    Weathermen didn’t predict that it was going to snow in my zip code last night. Yet it did. Even as it was snowing, weather.com showed no precipitation.

    I trust any weather/climate forecast barely above nil.

  34. “Weather Bombs” from a meteorological point of view simply defines a depression whose central pressure falls 24hPa in a 24 hour period. It’s not a scientifc term, just populist jargon. As a weather forecaster in the SW Pacific for yachties I can assure everyone that these depressions are not that “rare”, particularly in the spring and fall. One other thing, somewhere on WUWT there were comments made regarding atmospheric “blocking” as one feature of the AAO. In my experience we see blocking during positive AND negative AAO index values. From a weather point of view blocking has significance because it will slow the advance of fronts and depressions and make forecasting a wee bit more difficult. But to my knowledge using the AAO index to predict them does not work very well.

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