New paper suggests sun may be headed for a Maunder minimum

Can we predict the onset of the next grand solar minimum
====================
……….. no

Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
Hey Rossi, get that e-cat going. We need it for the next 500 years of cooling.

“The current declines in peak and mean RG are the largest since the onset of the MM and exceed those around 1800 which failed to initiate a GSMi.”
So the Dalton Minimum wasn’t very grand.

Link to the paper?

There is clearly a strong subconscious urge on the part of many scientists today to put forth “dire” predictions, and for the media and/or the public to want to hear such–it’s the science version of “reality TV”, where the cast is over the top rather than just ordinary folks (and the favorite performers especially so–we might call this episode, “Snooky Finds the Sun in Bed, After a Late Night–And Goes Nuts”). Apparently, dire predictions are to these scientists and their readers what teasingly-unclad ladies are to mass market advertising–irresistible. Apparently the current generation is bored with a tired old Earth, and a Sun under which nothing is new. Can’t anyone else see we are dealing in such cases as this with bored children, rather than master scientists? When they grow up and get back to respecting the Standard Atmosphere (which my Venus/Earth comparison confirmed as the fundamental and stable atmospheric reality) rather than visions of runaway or meter-pegging climate, I will begin to take climate scientists seriously.

thank you mr./ms. jmrsudbury

It didn’t take long to hear the drum of “it’s the Sun”. Reminds me of Trenbreth’s hurricane nonsense before the research was in and convincingly showed that he was wrong. Solar influence on terra firma temperature anomalies must rise above the background natural weather pattern variation short and long term oscillations. In other words, the affects of UV on the ozone layer must somehow perculate down to the weather level and force change in oceanic teleconnections on atmospheric natural weather pattern variations in measurable ways. Sorry. Not enough energy. Clearing out one pressure system for another and sustaining it takes, for lack of a better word, Hercules’ strength.
I would rather we get back to the Sun and whether or not this paper demonstrates new understandings of Solar prediction efforts.

In other words, the affects of UV on the ozone layer must somehow perculate down to the weather level and force change in oceanic teleconnections on atmospheric natural weather pattern variations in measurable ways.

Well, it just so happens:

Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere
Sarah Ineson,
Adam A. Scaife,
Jeff R. Knight,
James C. Manners,
Nick J. Dunstone,
Lesley J. Gray
& Joanna D. Haigh
An influence of solar irradiance variations on Earth’s surface climate has been repeatedly suggested, based on correlations between solar variability and meteorological variables. Specifically, weaker westerly winds have been observed in winters with a less active sun, for example at the minimum phase of the 11-year sunspot cycle. With some possible exceptions, it has proved difficult for climate models to consistently reproduce this signal. Spectral Irradiance Monitor satellite measurements indicate that variations in solar ultraviolet irradiance may be larger than previously thought. Here we drive an ocean–atmosphere climate model with ultraviolet irradiance variations based on these observations. We find that the model responds to the solar minimum with patterns in surface pressure and temperature that resemble the negative phase of the North Atlantic or Arctic Oscillation, of similar magnitude to observations. In our model, the anomalies descend through the depth of the extratropical winter atmosphere. If the updated measurements of solar ultraviolet irradiance are correct, low solar activity, as observed during recent years, drives cold winters in northern Europe and the United States, and mild winters over southern Europe and Canada, with little direct change in globally averaged temperature. Given the quasiregularity of the 11-year solar cycle, our findings may help improve decadal climate predictions for highly populated extratropical regions.

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v4/n11/full/ngeo1282.html

Pamela Gray says:
December 2, 2011 at 7:14 am
“Not enough energy. Clearing out one pressure system for another and sustaining it takes, for lack of a better word, Hercules’ strength.”
Pamela, if changes in the Solar spectrum (variation in UV output) and/or changes in the Solar magnetic field have an effect on cloudiness, modulating it by a percent or two, you suddenly get the necessary change in energy.

There is my paper on this topic here:
http://www.wbabin.net/Science-Journals/Research%20Papers-Astrophysics/Download/3812
In particular see figure 7 on page 19.

I think the key word here is ‘prediction’. I am pleased to see that the WUWT crowd is quite aware that our existing theories do not enable us to predict a solar minimum or the effects on Earth of a solar minimum.
What the scientists are doing is extrapolating from old graphs. We can call it “forecasting.”

Richard deSousa says:
December 2, 2011 at 8:05 am
“If we’re going to have a Maunder like minimum, it will be devastating for every living creature on this earth.”
We’d better give enough money to the IPCC so they can make sure that doesn’t happen.

People seem to think only of Dalton and Maunder. Remember that going into the LIA we had other solar minima nearly back to back. There was the Wolf minimum which was deeper and longer than Dalton but not so deep and long as Maunder. There was also the Spörer and then finally the Maunder. Prior to the MWP there was the Oort Minimum which might have been more like the Dalton.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5c/Carbon14_with_activity_labels.svg
The Spörer lasted for nearly 100 years. Sunspots had not yet been discovered so we have no exact counts to go by.

jack morrow says:
December 2, 2011 at 6:18 am
Is this the same Lockwood that was mostly wrong on his other predictions? I have no faith any more in the model predictions by these guys.
Is it the same Lockwood that disputes any effect of sun activity on climate, together with a Piers Forster study?
The BBC reported in 2007:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/6290228.stm
Ooopsi… did I say BBC?

So what? According to the Warmists the sun has no effect on weather or climate whatsoever. Didn’t our troll Hugh Pepper(?) say as much only 2 days ago, replete with links?

Ninderthana says:
Note that my paper predicts an Oort-like minimum (1010 to 1050 A.D.)

Hi!
I find it more likely that we would have something less than Maunder simply because it seems that less severe cases are more common in the record and therefore seem more likely occur. To predict a “Maunder” would seem to be going to extreme. So predicting an Oort-like minimum would seem like a more reasonable expectation.

How does TSI vary during a solar event like that?

Total output doesn’t really vary all that much but what DOES vary is the energy distribution in the spectrum. I think we are going to find that energy changes in the UV portion of the spectrum have a larger change than we have previously thought they have but that is speculation on my part. Of particular interest to me are long-term impacts of reduced UV on ocean temperatures. If we were to go 100 years with reduced UV, what impact does that have on the ocean? UV penetrates the deepest of all the wavelengths and is very energetic.
Also, what impact does reduced UV have on biological life on Earth? Sunlight is a natural anti-microbial due to UV. If we have reduced UV, do we see greater microbial abundance in soil and at the surface of the oceans? What would be the impact of that on things such as decay, diseases, food chain, etc?
To my mind there are more interesting things to be known about the distribution of the energy in the spectrum than the total power of the aggregate spectrum which I don’t believe changes all that much.

“The Forthcoming Grand Minimum of Solar Activity” can be found at the following site:
http://journalofcosmology.com/ClimateChange111.html
There are “three types of Grand Episodes that alternated during the last millennium (Duhau and de Jager, 2008). These episodes are the Grand Minimum (M: 1620 – 1724), the Regular Oscillations (R: 1724 – 1924) and the Grand Maximum (H: 1924 – 2009).”
Guess what cycle began in 2009?

Just looked at Spaceweather.com and noted how the Sun is peppered with little spots. Seems that gone are the days of the large clumps of ugly black we used to enjoy. Now it’s some kind of huge event when a single sizable flare erupts every week or so. Has anyone gotten a handle on the current cycle? I mean, where are we at with it? Waxing? Waning? How long to the next downturn (normal predictable minimum)?

This is no better then the general circulation models and probably less well understood. I have said many times the GCM and other climate foolishness is akin to a Ouija Board. This is just about a good as that. What is does show however is how much we simply do not know. I think this stuff is great but then I thought the idea of GCM’s was great too. The trick is to uses these things to keep our thinking from getting to far off track and provide some arm waving abilities like the cosmologists. The trick is to not believe in your own mythology.

ferd berple says:
December 2, 2011 at 8:12 am
The massive die-off of human population is only possible if every country collapses simultaneously. That is a major reason why a synchronized global market one-world-government is dangerous. Countries go through cycles of growth and collapse. It is virtually inevitable that government will grow too powerful and corrupt. When that happens, it must fall and be replaced. Smaller cooperative and desynchronized economies will avoid worldwide boom and bust (the latter could become a runaway civilization ender). A United States of Europe would only make the problems the Europeans face even more tragic. There would be no strong Germany to help with a bailout of failed partners.
Gary says:
December 2, 2011 at 9:36 am
It’s intersting to see the northern hemisphere may be much farther along in cycle 24 than the southern hemisphere. Double peaks were observed in the solar maxima in the last few cycles. Cycle 23 had a very strong second peak during which the southern hemisphere activity grew while the northern hemisphere activity dwindled. The hemispheres are apparently still out of phase, and it remains to be seen whether that trend is increasing or not. There seems to be no theory yet concerning the cause or possible consequences of unsynchronized progression of each hemisphere through the solar cycle.
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/bfly.gif
http://www.icsu-fags.org/ps11sidc.htm
Also, there seem to be no indications of any change in solar parameters suggesting the sun is on a path to a strong prolonged minimum.
http://www.boulder.swri.edu/~deforest/SPD-sunspot-release/

The massive die-off of human population is only possible if every country collapses simultaneously.

I disagree. I believe all it would take is one massive killing frost in the upper plains of the US/Canada. One single cold night could trigger it. It would start with a spike in food prices and end with great social upheaval and a lot of people killing each other. If it doesn’t disrupt the entire production/supply infrastructure, it will stabilize when the population has been reduced to where they can all be fed again. In Europe, the situation resulted in a collapse of the normal infrastructure processes and resulted in many years of wars and famine. Many areas of Europe did not return to population levels seen during the MWP until the 20th century.

Is it getting harsh out or am I just hormonal?
What if Maunder isn’t the grandest minima? I’m guessing it isn’t even close. On the other hand We’ll probably be living on other planets or extinct by the time we see one.
Bring on Maunder II, we have new sattelites, let’s learn something!

“look at the 10.7 cm Flux. This measures the UV energy which directly effects the heat in the Ozone Layer. This is the thermal blanket that helps us become warm or cold”
I think that is right but the key issue to my mind is that the effects are differential at different levels leading to a cooling of the stratosphere when the sun is active and a warming of the stratosphere when the sun is inactive.
That is the only means whereby we can get poleward climate zone shifts when the sun is active and equatorward shifts when it is inactive.
Standard climatology suggest a warming stratosphere when the sun is active which would give equatorward shifting when the sun is active but in fact the shift is poleward when the sun is active.
The evidence is that sudden stratospheric warming events cause equatorward bursts of polar air as is well recognised.
Standard climatology simply does not fit the observations.
It is those shifts that change global cloudiness and albedo so as to change the amount of solar energy into the oceans which then affect the temperature of thje troposphere.
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=8723&linkbox=true&position=6
“CO2 or Sun ?”

Richard deSousa says:
December 2, 2011 at 8:05 am
If we’re going to have a Maunder like minimum, it will be devastating for every living creature on this earth. Mass starvation, massive die out of our human and animal population as availability of food becomes scarce.
=============================
Add to that thousands upon thousands of nuclear warheads, especially all the ones hidden underground in the PRC (never part of any treaty) and Russia (now treating treaties like pie crusts in classic fashion). As “luck” would have it, the nations most adversely affected by loss of viable growing areas are those in the Shanghai Cooperation Org, meanwhile, the nations where the remaining breadbaskets will be happen to be in the Americas and Western Europe. The next world war will be the worst.

ferd berple says:
December 2, 2011 at 8:12 am
Time to learn to grow your own Fred, there is a lot more technology available now to enable small scale production growing and rearing food, and also to protect it. No matter where in the global political spectrum you reside sometime in the near future people will start to realise, we are animals and this is nature.

I’m not sure GSM can be predicted, but it’s interesting to see the current trend and imagine if it continues.

If sun affected major climate changes through the TSI (including UV etc) it would show up in the data

We don’t have the data. The only data we have of the UV that I was talking about has only been collected since well after the start of solar cycle 23. The data we DO have show a strong correlation to the change in UV with changes in the AO/NAO and climate models reflect the observation when provided that data.

What I find uncanny about that UV paper are the graphs in figure 7 of 8, particularly the top set of UVER daily irradiance measured in Spain when compared with the NCDC seasonal temperature graphs for 1992 through 2010 (base period set to 1990 to 2010 for the center line). I would expect the UV to be roughly the same for Spain as the CONUS (possibly with the exception of Spring depending on where the “ozone hole” spills from the pole in Spring).
This is the first correlation of data I have seen that matches the pattern of warmer summers and colder winters. Spring has a much “flatter” trend in the CONUS temperature graphs than Summer or Fall. Correlation does not mean causation, I know. But the relationship is still quite uncanny.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15995845
This might have been posted lread. If katla goes up it could be messy. It could be a “get out of jail free” card for the warmists. We know how it will go: “if Katla hadn’t erupted…”
I’m in a Charlie Parker mood so here’s “My Old Flame”.

Dennis Ray Wingo says:
December 2, 2011 at 3:35 pm
“Hey, I just noticed that if you flip that graph, it could be substituted for the Tijander sediments in the Mann/Jones paper!”
And if you build bridges in Finland it makes the atmospheric CO2 percentage increase. It’s a causation/correlation kind of thing. You can’t deny it surely?

crosspatch says:
December 2, 2011 at 11:29 am
The massive die-off of human population is only possible if every country collapses simultaneously.
I disagree. I believe all it would take is one massive killing frost in the upper plains of the US/Canada…..
_________________________________________
If it happens you can curse the name of Dan Amstutz. He is the S.O.B. who got rid of the US strategic grain reserves via his 1996 farm bill “Freedom to Fail” http://multinationalmonitor.org/mm2000/00july-aug/lilliston.html
He also wrote the World Trade Organization’s Agreement on Ag while he danced between being VP of Cargill, working for the USDA and working for Goldman Sachs. I doubt it was a coincidence that Goldman Sachs and Cargill profited from the 2008 food riots. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/27/how_goldman_sachs_created_the_food_crisis?page=0,1
The last I checked I think China was the only country with any real grain reserves. The USA got rid of the last of her reserves in 2008.
The North American Export Grain Association (NAEGA), started the Dan Amstutz Award for Amstutz’ outstanding job in betraying the USA to the global grain cartel.
Joint Letter with NGFA to President Bush, Arguing Against a Global Reserve Grain Stockpile: http://www.naega.org/images/pdf/grain_reserves_for_food_aid.pdf

An article appeared a few years ago in one of the more reputable newspapers, and it said,
The southern hemisphere will be flooded with refugees from a coming ice age.
Look in Australia, Aborigines were resident during the last ice age. Very little glacial advances, maybe less rainforests. So they survived in a hunter gatherer and fisher economy. Well we have domesticated animals, lots of good fruit and veggies, and wine, and …. beaut beaches as well as inland areas. Australia has lots to offer the world with selling food and meat, fish etc. The only proviso is you bring your money with you. Unless you are an asylum seeker of course, then we support you….forever if necessary. A full glacial is thousands of years away, if it ever comes,
Read Colleen McColloughs ‘Creed of the Third Mellenium’. She describes the next glacial period well, if in rather pretensious prose. But I remember turning my electric blanket on while her descriptive writing was brilliant describing how an ice age affected the Northern Hemisphere.
Or read Ice not Fire, Al! On the net.

crosspatch:
I can only suggest that you look at the production increase for corn before you state that we have burned our “reserves”.
2. The reason we don’t have “reserves” per se, is that no one can afford to hold those reserves.
I agree that Godlman is hip deep in the financial mess.

pochas says:
December 2, 2011 at 1:18 pm
C’mon, guys – Is this rhetoric really necessary? I’d rather see planning rather than scaremongering for a change. If we’re going to have to get our food grown elsewhere, let’s talk to the folks who will have to grow it. Loan them money to set up irrigation, transportation, whatever. Cooperate with the people who will be short. Heck, China has lots of lunch money.
____________________________________
And China is buying up farmland in Africa and South America as are hedge funds, University Endowment funds, George Soros, Al Gore, Lord Rothschild, The World Bank, Citi bank….
What you are missing is the change in treaties and laws that have force peasant farmers off the land. Mexico lost 75% of her farmers, Portugal lost 60% of her farmers, The Eu decided 2 million Polish farmers had to go and India has a farmer suiciding every 32 minutes.
This means the control of the global food supply is passing from the hands of independent farmers into the hands of a few wealthy corporations. The red tape in the new US food “Safety” Modernization Act will wipe out the last of the independent American farmers and may also make a backyard garden nearly impossible.
Trojan Horse Law: The Food Safety Modernization Act http://www.examiner.com/scotus-in-washington-dc/trojan-horse-law-the-food-safety-modernization-act-of-2009
Famine does not necessarily mean not enough food, it means NO ACCESS to food.
Amartya Sen won the 1998 noble prize in Economics. As a nine year old boy he witnessed the Bengal famine of 1943 first hand.
This was the famine that occasioned Winston Churchill’s remark that the famine was of no great account because the Indians would simply “breed like rabbits.”
THAT is the type of attitude that is STILL prevalent today and allowed Cargill, Monsanto, and Goldman Sachs to callously orchestrate the 2008 famine starving thousands so they could post record earnings.
<blockquote ….For much of his career, Sen focused on the fact that during the worst period of the Irish famine of the 1840s, “ship after ship sailed down the Shannon, bound for England, laden with wheat, oats, cattle, hogs, eggs, and butter.” Similarly, during the Ethiopian famine of 1973, food moved out of the hardest-hit Wollo province and headed toward more affluent purchasers in Addis Ababa…..
…food “counter-movements” led Sen to the insight that if governments were to intervene in such situations, famines would not be so very difficult to prevent. “The rulers,” he wrote, “never starve."
…Even so, said Sen, famines are not terribly difficult to avoid. Prevention requires the speedy implementation of emergency income-creation and employment programs, in combination with the broader social infrastructure of representative democracy and a free press, which happens to be the best early-warning system. Famine happens when rulers are alienated from those they rule, he explained, and a functioning democracy is a simple way to remove such alienation. Famine happens when there is no free press, because rulers tend to feel embarrassed when photographs of starving children appear on the front page…. http://frederickkaufman.typepad.com/harpersmag/Let%20Them%20Eat%20Cash!.pdf

crosspatch says:
December 2, 2011 at 3:38 pm
If sun affected major climate changes through the TSI (including UV etc) it would show up in the data
We don’t have the data…..
_________________________________
Actually Richard Feyman’s sister Joan Feynman was co-author of this paper.
Is solar variability reflected in the Nile River? http://trs-new.jpl.nasa.gov/dspace/handle/2014/40231
Pop Science version: NASA Finds Sun-Climate Connection in Old Nile Records
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/features.cfm?feature=1319

…Alexander Ruzmaikin and Joan Feynman of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., together with Dr. Yuk Yung of the California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, Calif., have analyzed Egyptian records of annual Nile water levels collected between 622 and 1470 A.D. at Rawdah Island in Cairo. These records were then compared to another well-documented human record from the same time period: observations of the number of auroras reported per decade in the Northern Hemisphere….
Feynman said that while ancient Nile and auroral records are generally “spotty,” that was not the case for the particular 850-year period they studied.
“Since the time of the pharaohs, the water levels of the Nile were accurately measured, since they were critically important for agriculture and the preservation of temples in Egypt,” she said. “These records are highly accurate and were obtained directly, making them a rare and unique resource…
A similarly accurate record exists for auroral activity during the same time period in northern Europe and the Far East. People there routinely and carefully observed and recorded auroral activity, because auroras were believed to portend future disasters, such as droughts and the deaths of kings.
“A great deal of modern scientific effort has gone into collecting these ancient auroral records, inter-comparing them and evaluating their accuracy,” Ruzmaikin said. “They have been successfully used by aurora experts around the world to study longer time scale variations.”
The researchers found some clear links between the sun’s activity and climate variations. The Nile water levels and aurora records had two somewhat regularly occurring variations in common – one with a period of about 88 years and the second with a period of about 200 years….

Tom G(eologist) right on, partner. Only if all alarmists had just a knowledge of geology, archaeology and palaeoanthropology. And remember too guys, the arctic circle also has restricted hours of sunlight or excessive sunlight hours, like the Arctic and Antarctica. Norway and the Hebrides in Scotland, and parts of Canada and Alaska. They have 22 hours of sunlight for some months and the reverse in winter. Anyway, I wonder how they handle short days and long nights, most probably lack Vit D too.

From Scott Covert on December 2, 2011 at 11:43 am:

Is it getting harsh out or am I just hormonal?

Don’t know. Is it near your time of the month?

Is this the modus operandi of a person who professes to believe in and use the scientific method?
“..and I are conveners for a workshop designed to bring about a consensus [if possible] about the long term behavior of solar activity.”
“…so in a couple of years, mainstream science [!] might [hopefully] have a unified and thoroughly vetted view on this.”
Other than using words like the “the team” and “the cause”, you might think that this person was Dr. Mann or Dr. Jones. Consensus.., unified [view]….thoroughly vetted view… mainstream science… surely these are not the words of a scientist with an open mind?
Well, at least he does not stoop to smearing those who disagree with him on this issue like Mann and Jones has done.
“I’m busy right now. And most of the comments [on this post] are just the same old, tired sycophantic babble by the usual pushers of pseudo-science which we all have heard a million times.”
Isn’t it good to know that you can look forward to Dr. Leif Svalgaard telling what to think on this important topic. Don’t bother your little minds with any of those silly little independent thoughts that might lead you to stray from the party line……Dr. Svalgaard is here to save the day!

India has a huge wheat reserve, 200 million+ tons. Although much of it is rotting due to inadequate storage.

Jimmy Haigh says:
December 2, 2011 at 4:55 pm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15995845
This might have been posted lread. If katla goes up it could be messy. It could be a “get out of jail free” card for the warmists. We know how it will go: “if Katla hadn’t erupted…
The last two paragraphs are the best bits!
But the biggest threat to Iceland’s icecaps is seen as climate change, not the volcanoes that sometimes melt the icecaps.
They have begun to thin and retreat dramatically over the last few decades, contributing to the rise in sea levels that no eruption of Katla, however big, is likely to match.
The BBC doing what it does best!

tallbloke says:
December 3, 2011 at 2:53 am
The end goal of this effort is to use a vetted record of IMF B (or the Sun’s open flux (Φ)) for the past ~170 years to extend this time series back through the Holocene (~11,000 years before present) using the long-term 10Be and 14C data sets.
I predict Leif’s consensus will confidently demonstrate a solar history with the minimum variation that can plausibly be derived from the data.
The research done by planetary-solar theorists indicates that the Sun itself will probably prove the new consensus wrong within 20 years. If so, I sincerely hope Leif is still with us to witness it.
_________________________________________
Given what the Ice Core types did to the CO2 levels, I am not going to place bets with you.
The sun is constant is one of the foundations of CAGW so that is what will be found.
This peer reviewed paper starts off with a blatant lie, water vapor not CO2 is the most important “Greenhouse” gas. Then it is made clear they are looking for evidence to convict and hang mankind. IMPARTIAL??? Not bloody likely.

CO2 diffusion in polar ice: observations from naturally formed
CO2 spikes in the Siple Dome (Antarctica) ice core
INTRODUCTION
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important greenhouse gas directly impacted by human activities. Ancient air preserved in polar ice cores provides extremely important information about the functioning of the carbon cycle in the past (e.g. Etheridge and others, 1996; Fischer and others, 1999; Petit and others, 1999; Kawamura and others, 2003; Ahn and others, 2004; EPICA Community Members, 2004; Siegenthaler and others, 2005). The reconstructed records extend direct measurements of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, which started in 1958 (Keeling, 1960), and may help us predict future climate under rapidly increasing CO2 more accurately.
The integrity of an ice core as a reliable archive depends on the incorporation followed by the preservation of the original atmospheric signal.
http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Reference_Docs/CO2_diffusion_in_polar_ice_2008.pdf

The Siple core is treated as a classical proof that the pre-industrial CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere was about 70 ppm v lower than now (e.g. IP C C , 1990). One should note, however, that this core was exposed to post-coring melting. The melting, which must have caused important changes in the gaseous composition , was not reported by Neftel et al (1985) (see discussion in Jaworowski et al., 1992). The data from this core were adjusted to overlay exactly the recent atmospheric concentrations at Mauna Loa (Siegenthaler and Oeschger, 1987). A figure demonstrating this adjustment is reproduced in countless publications (e.g. in IPCC , 1990). The overlaying was achieved by assuming that the age of the trapped air w as 95 years younger than the ice. Without this speculative assumption the Mauna Loa and Siple data do not agree at all. As was indicated by Jaworowski et al. (1992), rather than representing the past atmospheric changes, the results show how the CO 2 concentra tio n s in the Siple core decrease with the increasing load pressure up to about 15 bars, due to clathrate formation, differential dissolution of gases in the intercrystalline liquid brine, and other processes in the ice sheet and in the ice core….
We are not discussing the validity of analytical methods used in the current CO2 studies in
glaciers. We criticize the quality of ice as a closed system , which is an absolutely essential criterion for its use to reconstruct the composition of the pre-industrial atmosphere. We also criticize the methodology of sampling, and biased interpretation of results. Ice is neither a rigid material, nor may be regarded as a closed system , suitable for preserving the original chemical and isotopic composition of atmospheric gas inclusions. Ice core drilling is an extremely brutal procedure leading to drastic changes in the ice samples, precluding their reliability for gas analyses….. In this interpretation differentiation processes in the ice were neglected or downplayed. In fact they were never thoroughly studied, and this is one of the reasons why the glaciological studies were not able to provide a reliable reconstruction of the CO2 level in pre-industrial and ancient atmospheres…. http://www.co2web.info/np-m-119.pdf
OUCH, no wonder Dr. Jaworowski was vilified. The Emperor and his court are NOT happy when someone points out they have no clothes.
What is also amusing is we are lead to believe the Antarctic Ice Core CO2 is representative of the whole earth’s CO2 when NASA SHOWS the Antarctic has a lower amount of CO2 than anywhere else on earth! http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/jpegMod/PIA09269_modest.jpg

New paper suggests sun may be headed for a Maunder minimum
Posted on December 2, 2011 by Anthony Watts
The recent low and prolonged minimum of the solar cycle, along with the slow growth in activity of the new cycle, has led to suggestions that the Sun is entering a Grand Solar Minimum (GSMi), potentially as deep as the Maunder Minimum (MM).
Taking one of the proxies like the reconstruction of A.Mangini et al. 2005, it can be seen that the MM is a ‘nip tide’ phase in a complex tide like function of two plutinos Quaoar and Pluto. The solar nip tide angles on the ecliptic of 90° were exact in the years 1630 AD and 1709 AD.
From this function a similar ‘MM’ will occur again in the
27th century AD. The signs of the solar events can be shown in common with a first maximum of three of a conjunction of the two plutinos, which took place in 1997 and has changed to about a solar tide like angle of 14° into 2011, ongoing with a slightly cooling effect. But there will be no deep minimum as the MM; in 2045 AD the temperatures will be arise and will reach a second maximum higher than today.
Because not only the plutino couple Quaoar/Pluto shows effects of global temperature changes, but also all neighbor planets from Mercury on outwards in the solar system, it is possible to trace and forecast the global temperatures in high resolution (over 6000 years in total).
This can be shown in a graph for the years 1550 AD until 1750 AD.
http://volker-doormann.org/images/ghi_6_lockwood_1.gif
There is a remarkable coherence visible between the reconstructed temperature function in time of A. Moberg et al. and A. Mangini et al. and a simple summation of solar tide functions of the couples from Jupiter outside fits mostly well in the time function.
It can be seen that in the time of no Sun spots, there is still a dynamic in the temperature function working, and these oscillations can be shown all in geometry with solar tides functions.
Maybe in this phase the internal solar oscillator of 1/11.196 years^-1 is free from tide like effects; before the first exact nip tide and after the second (in this graph) Sun spots occur with its nature of phase shifting like today (relaxing).
The similar time coherent function of d14C and d18O high frequency data suggest that these temperature anomalies or heat currents are well based on a periodic physical process. If there is a correlation between solar tide like functions and terrestrial climate, then there is a real connection.
A so called Maunder Minimum MM is not a physical observable. The Sun has its own oscillator, but the hole Sun is in harmony with its planets and must move around the barycenter in respect to the planets.
The point is to show a scientific connection. Sun spot counting for centuries hasn’t give answers about the nature of the terrestrial climate.
V.

Bennett says:
December 2, 2011 at 8:51 pm
Ah yes. the immortal Billie…

Leif Svalgaard says:
December 3, 2011 at 4:42 pm
“They are all in free fall and feel no forces so the planets don’t “make” the Sun do anything.”
============
Really, the moon is in free fall, yet causes tides.

The simplest solution is often the right one.
For whatever reason a less active sun results in increased global cloudiness for reduced solar energy into the oceans causing weaker El Nino events and a cooling troposphere.
I’ve provided a full explanation on many occasions here and elsewhere.

Volker Doormann says:
December 3, 2011 at 11:14 am
Because not only the plutino couple Quaoar/Pluto shows effects of global temperature changes, but also all neighbor planets from Mercury on outwards in the solar system, it is possible to trace and forecast the global temperatures in high resolution (over 6000 years in total).
This can be shown in a graph for the years 1550 AD until 1750 AD.
http://volker-doormann.org/images/ghi_6_lockwood_1.gif
There is a remarkable coherence visible between the reconstructed temperature function in time of A. Moberg et al. and A. Mangini et al. and a simple summation of solar tide functions of the couples from Jupiter outside fits mostly well in the time function.
It can be seen that in the time of no Sun spots, there is still a dynamic in the temperature function working, and these oscillations can be shown all in geometry with solar tides functions.
The last similar ‘MM’ cold phase before 1645 AD occurred in the years of 535 AD ff. It is written:
“The Byzantine historian Procopius recorded of 536, in his report on the wars with the Vandals, “during this year a most dread portent took place. For the sun gave forth its light without brightness…and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear.” The Gaelic Irish Annals record the following: “A failure of bread in the year 536 AD” — The Annals of Ulster “A failure of bread from the years 536–539 AD”. Further phenomena reported by a number of independent contemporary sources: Low temperatures, even snow during the summer (snow reportedly fell in August in China, which postponed the harvest there). Crop failures “A dense, dry fog” in the Middle East, China, and Europe. Drought in Peru, which affected the Moche culture. “
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_weather_events_of_535%E2%80%93536)
“Abrupt changes in northern Fennoscandian summer temperatures extracted from the 7500-year ring-width chronology of Scots pine, the “most dramatic shift in growing conditions, from favorable to unfavorable, between two years, took place between A.D. 535-536” in Europe and Africa.”
(http://ezinearticles.com/?Days-of-Darkness-(AD-535-AD-546)&id=202540)
The “remarkable coherence visible between the reconstructed temperature function in time of A. Moberg et al. and A. Mangini et al. and a simple summation of solar tide functions of the couples from Jupiter outside fits mostly well in the time function” also for the years of 536-539 AD as shown in this graph (from 450-650 AD, without Sun spot number curve):
http://volker-doormann.org/images/ghi_6_lockwood_2.gif
Moreover, 100 years later, when the solar tide function of Quaoar and Pluto was exact for the second time after the year of 528 AD :
“During the late sixth century and early seventh century, the Eastern Turkic Empire (i.e., the Eastern Turkic Khanate) was the most powerful country in the Northeast Asia. It collapsed suddenly in A.D. 630, and historians concluded that the combination of social, political and economic factors, as well as the invasion of the Tang Empire, would be the root cause. Here we suggest that a climatic cooling event ca. A.D. 627–629 could be the direct cause.“
(http://www.akuastrateji.sumae.gov.tr/downloads/makale_en/Circa_AD_626_Vo.pdf)
‘German religious reformer Martin Luther (1483–1546) said Copernicus was “the fool who will turn the whole science of astronomy upside down.’ Seems that the climate dogma community have again hard times in expectation.
V.

Leif Svalgaard says:
December 3, 2011 at 4:42 pm
“If Jupiter and Saturn can make the Sun wobble by as much as two solar diameters in six years, I’m sure Jupiter and Saturn can make Earth’s length of day vary by a few milliseconds per three decades.”
They are all in free fall and feel no forces so the planets don’t “make” the Sun do anything.
;———————————————————————————————————————-
I’m curious as to how you would explain the Earth bound CME every New Moon?

I’m glad for this thread. The Solar threads are always interesting. Wondering if our new flotilla of sun observing satellites has revealed anything we didn’t know?
About Leif’s sense of humour. His abrupt ending to recounting his trip to the lunatic assylum was hilarious! Vuk–you might want to end Sarc/off when you extend you facts into comedy as we can’t tell the difference most the time.
Anyway,.I still think the iron sun generates the sun spot correlation in the Iguazu river—- sarc/off.
I think we’re lucky to have Leif to even ask questions of on this most important of topics and if anyone has any new Science to challenge him; bring it on–he’d be delighted to be the second to know (gedditt??? As there is alot of un-peer reviewed, non-punblished, spagetti flavoured, hockey-stick shaped stuff thrown in his face). The Sun and the threads about it are most interesting.

Only weather can change the temperature. And only a consistent entrenched weather pattern variation can create a hot or cool summer. Occasionally, the change can be decades long. So here is the KISS principal.
Figure out how much energy is required to sustain an entrenched sustained weather pattern variation long enough to change the trend from flat to rising or falling over a multidecade length of time. Then go looking for something with enough energy to match what is needed.
When considering the tiny rise in global temps over the past 30 to 40 years, if it was the Sun wut done it, someone would have had to lasso that thing and bring it a might closer to Earth in order for the maths to match.
So Tallbloke, cough up the maths if you are so convinced that tiny changes in the Sun (pick your parameter) can cause an entrenched sustained weather pattern variation long enough to change the temperature trend from flat to rising or falling over a multidecade length of time. You have to show that “the E of some solar parameter = the E required to sustain the weather change”. Now that’s what I call peanut butter and jelly math. It ain’t elegant but neither am I.
But don’t be sad if you come up empty handed. The anthropogenic CO2 crowd can’t come up with a defensible answer either.

Stephen Wilde says:
December 2, 2011 at 11:53 am
“look at the 10.7 cm Flux. This measures the UV energy which directly effects the heat in the Ozone Layer. This is the thermal blanket that helps us become warm or cold”
I think that is right but the key issue to my mind is that the effects are differential at different levels leading to a cooling of the stratosphere when the sun is active and a warming of the stratosphere when the sun is inactive.
Then there should already – or soon – be some sign that the stratosphere is warming in response to the current downturn in solar activity. Have we seen anything of this yet?

Pamela Gray says:
December 4, 2011 at 6:15 pm
Only weather can change the temperature. And only a consistent entrenched weather pattern variation can create a hot or cool summer. Occasionally, the change can be decades long.
Well, I think if arguing on temperature changes over decades it is more useful to speak about global temperature pattern, because the terms weather and summer are fixed to only parts of the globe.
Figure out how much energy is required to sustain an entrenched sustained weather pattern variation long enough to change the trend from flat to rising or falling over a multidecade length of time. Then go looking for something with enough energy to match what is needed.
Maybe this is a way to a multidecade prediction of weather, I don’t know. It seems to me that there is a problem about the dimensions of all the elements of the heat current that match with local flat, up and down weather precisely. Moreover, it needs a heat source that drive that varying streaming heat current from warm to cold. And this is not simple energy in Joule; a pattern is needed that match with the global weather.
When considering the tiny rise in global temps over the past 30 to 40 years, if it was the Sun wut done it, someone would have had to lasso that thing and bring it a might closer to Earth in order for the maths to match.
I do agree in general, but it needs not only math but also logic, knowledge about the harmonics, pattern and laws in the whole solar system.
So Tallbloke, cough up the maths if you are so convinced that tiny changes in the Sun (pick your parameter) can cause an entrenched sustained weather pattern variation long enough to change the temperature trend from flat to rising or falling over a multidecade length of time.
I do not know what Tallbloke knows about this matter, but if you sums up – using fundamental math – some solar tide like pattern of couples over the time of years, decades, centuries or millennia, the profile match well with the well known temperature proxies from Eddy, Dansgaard, Bond, Moberg, Mangini, or hadcrut3:
http://volker-doormann.org/images/ghi_11_had1960.gif
http://volker-doormann.org/images/ghi_6_lockwood_1.gif
http://volker-doormann.org/images/ghi_6_lockwood_2.gif
http://volker-doormann.org/images/ghi_vs_comnispa_5k.jpg
http://volker-doormann.org/images/solar_fig_3.gif
http://volker-doormann.org/images/solar_fig_1.gif
If these pattern are not matching with the law of Sir Newton about gravitation using a mass, then it seems that it is not useful to take it.
A ‘mass’ of: 1.7801 * 10-36 [V A sec3 m-2] is equal to an Enegy of 1[eV]. From this we can clean up the dimensions kg and Newton to the trash. A force F [N] has then the dimension [V A s m-1]. The pressure P in [kg m s-2 m-2] has then the diimension [V A s3 m-3]. The angular moment D [kg m2 sec-1] has then the dimension [V A s2] and is equal to Planck’s constant h. Multiplied by a frequeny [1/s] is is an energy [V A s]. The gravitational constant g [m3 kg-1 s2] has then the dimension [m5 s-5 V-1 A-1]. The gravitational force F [ g x m1 x m2 x r-2 ] has the dimension [V A s m-1]. Because ‘mass’ m [kg] = E * µ0 * epsilon0 (permeability and permittivity of the universe) there is no need for a mass anymore {numbers are power numbers}.
It is well known that there is a strong relation between the angular moments oaf the celestial bodies and their magnetic moment:
http://volker-doormann.org/vasangmagmom.gif
This shows that there is a natural simple relation between electromagnetism and that, what we call mass.
Neither math is equal to science nor physics is. Science includes logic, geometry, algebra and the laws of physics. Mass, time or space or velocity are social definitions, but not physical forces.
V.

Volker, you can call upon solar systems far and wide and measure their various “stuff”. But it matters little. The bottom line must be applied to Earth’s surface weather conditions. Your various “stuff” must have enough energy to get down to us and then still have enough energy to change and sustain the weather drivers over a long period of time to say that the recent trend is extraterrestial in origin. Think removing or putting into place a sustained blocking high. Think changing the AO from one side to the other of what we typically understand as positive and negative conditions. Think sustained temperature inversions. Think keeping water vapor levels at a sustained and prolonged amount. Think keeping the tropical ocean in a sustained El Nino or La Nina pattern. There. Just. Isn’t. Enough. Extraterrestial. Anomalous. Energy.

Pamela Gray says:
December 6, 2011 at 7:02 am
Volker, you can call upon solar systems far and wide and measure their various “stuff”. But it matters little. The bottom line must be applied to Earth’s surface weather conditions. Your various “stuff” must have enough energy to get down to us and then still have enough energy to change and sustain the weather drivers over a long period of time to say that the recent trend is extraterrestial in origin…..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
You forget the oceans are giant heat sinks that store energy. The oceans have oscillations and you can not have oscillations without adding energy. The energy does not have to be a large amount just a small push (high solar energy) or pull (low solar energy) over the 30 to 40 year upswing or down swing of the oscillation. (think a kid on a swing)
Here is another way that the total solar insolation as seen on earth can be changed.
This is from a solar panel website.
Monthly insolation levels in kWh/m 2/day (Data provided by NASA) http://www.solarpanelsplus.com/solar-insolation-levels/
Here is Phoenix AZ (33’26″N)
Jan 3.25, June 7.7, July 6.99, Avg 5.38
Birmingham (Al 33’34″N)
Jan 2.29, June 5.98, July 5.81 Avg 4.34
Atlanta GA (33’39″N)
Jan 2.13 , June 6.01, July 5.81 , Avg 4.37
Data for the month of June 2011 from weather underground:
Phoenix AZ, No Rain Humidity ~ 10-25%
Birmingham 13 T-storms Humidity ~ 50 – 95%
Atlanta 12 T-storms Humidity ~60 – 95%
(humidity is VERY rough by a quick eyeballing)
So for very similar latitudes the insolation levels in June changed by 0.7 kWh/m 2/day due to water vapor/rain assuming everything else is constant.

CERN Experiment Confirms Cosmic Rays Influence Cloud Seeds
it appears that a non-visible light irradiance effect on Earth’s cloud seeds has been confirmed. The way it is posited to work is that the effect of cosmic rays (modulated by the sun’s magnetic variations which either allow more or deflect more cosmic rays) creates cloud condensation nuclei in the Earth’s atmosphere. With more condensation nuclei, more clouds form and vice-versa. Clouds have significant effects on TSI at the surface…

This is from a solar panel website.
Monthly insolation levels in kWh/m 2/day (Data provided by NASA) http://www.solarpanelsplus.com/solar-insolation-levels/
Here is Phoenix AZ (33’26″N)
Jan 3.25, June 7.7, July 6.99, Avg 5.38
Birmingham (Al 33’34″N)
Jan 2.29, June 5.98, July 5.81 Avg 4.34
Atlanta GA (33’39″N)
Jan 2.13 , June 6.01, July 5.81 , Avg 4.37
The month of June 2011:
Phoenix AZ, No Rain Humidiy 10-25%
Birmingham 13 T-storms Humidiy 50 – 95%
Atlanta 12 T-storms Humidiy 60 – 95%
So for very similar latitudes the insolation levels in June changed by 0.7 kWh/m 2/day due to water vapor/rain assuming everything else is constant. That is a heck of a big change all due to water vapor/rain.

CERN Experiment Confirms Cosmic Rays Influence Cloud Seeds
it appears that a non-visible light irradiance effect on Earth’s cloud seeds has been confirmed. The way it is posited to work is that the effect of cosmic rays (modulated by the sun’s magnetic variations which either allow more or deflect more cosmic rays) creates cloud condensation nuclei in the Earth’s atmosphere. With more condensation nuclei, more clouds form and vice-versa. Clouds have significant effects on TSI at the surface…

Agile Aspect says:
December 4, 2011 at 6:02 am
“I’m curious as to how you would explain the Earth bound CME every New Moon?”
Leif Svalgaard says:
December 4, 2011 at 6:33 am
“So am I. You can start by showing that there are such.”
Really? Interesting. Well it’s easy enough to show it occurs but you’ll have to do you own homework.
Also, you might want to Google for the 3 body problem.
“They are all in free fall and feel no forces so the planets don’t “make” the Sun do anything.”
This implies you’re transforming away the force of gravity in space and time and replacing it with geometry described by 10 nonlinear coupled partial differential equations in space-time, i.e., general relativity.
And assuming you can solve these equations within your lifetime, in the end, you’ll need to make the low velocity approximation, in which case, you’re back in space and time with a Newtonian description.
Basically you’re feeding people a pile of dung because evidently transforming to center of mass coordinates (a standard technique in physics) appears to be beyond your ken.

Volker Doormann says: @ December 7, 2011 at 4:55 am

Gail Combs says:
The energy does not have to be a large amount just a small push (high solar energy) or pull (low solar energy) over the 30 to 40 year upswing or down swing of the oscillation. (think a kid on a swing).

I cannot see, what your theory about a swing is relevant here.
________________________________
I am talking about the fact that a Perpetual Motion Machine can not exist. Therefore You can not have an oscillation WITHOUT adding energy. That energy comes from the sun, as does every bit of energy (not including geothermal)
Ulric Lyons @ December 6, 2011 at 4:47 pm Provided a mechanism for influencing the polar jets (Thank you)
“Think changing the AO from one side to the other of what we typically understand as positive and negative conditions.” http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682600000808
All I am saying is that it is very very foolish to dismiss the effects of the sun on the weather just because we are told it is “Constant” ESPECIALLY when you have a “Capacitor” like the oceans in the mix as well as the “Knave of Fools” water vapor.

Ulric Lyons says:
December 7, 2011 at 4:02 pm
@Volker Doormann says:
December 7, 2011 at 10:35 am
“From this it is not possible with this astronomic method to simulate the temperatures for the NH or SH alone.”
So you can`t simulate seasonal or monthly land temperature anomalies in either hemisphere with this method
Yes.
V.