See update below: New comparison graph of US temperatures in 1999 to present added – quite an eye opener – Anthony
There’s been a lot of buzz and conflicting reports over what the BEST data actually says, especially about the last decade where we have dueling opinions on a “slowing down”, “leveling off”, “standstill”, or “slight rise” (depending on whose pronouncements you read) of global warming.
Here’s some media quotes that have been thrown about recently about the BEST preliminary data and preliminary results:
āāWe see no evidence of it [global warming] having slowed down,ā he told BBC Radio 4ās Today programme. There was, he added, āno levelling offā.” – Dr. Richard Muller
In The Sunday Mail Prof Curry said, the projectās research data show there has been no increase in world temperatures since the end of the Nineties:
āThere is no scientific basis for saying that warming hasnāt stopped,ā she said. āTo say that there is detracts from the credibility of the data, which is very unfortunate.ā – Dr. Judith Curry in The Sunday Mail
Climatologist Dr. Pat Michaels in an essay at The GWPF wrote:
“The last ten years of the BEST data indeed show no statistically significant warming trend, no matter how you slice and dice them”. He adds: “Both records are in reasonable agreement about the length of time without a significant warming trend. In the CRU record it is 15.0 years. In the University of Alabama MSU it is 13.9, and in the Remote Sensing Systems version of the MSU it is 15.6 years. “
In the middle of all those quotes being bandied about, I get an email from Burt Rutan (yes THAT Burt Rutan) with a PDF slideshow titled Winter Trends in the United States in the Last Decade citing NCDC’s “climate at a glance” data. This is using the USHCN2 data, which we are told is the “best”, no pun intended. It had this interesting map of the USA for Winter Temperatures (December-February) by climate region on the first slide:
Hmmm, that’s a bit of a surprise for the steepness of those trend numbers. So I decided to expand and enhance that slide show by combining trend graphs and the map together, while also looking at other data (summer, annual). Here’s a breakdown for CONUS by region for Winter, Summer, and Annual comparisons. Click each image to enlarge to full size to view the graphs.
Winter temperatures and trends Ā°F, 2001-2011. Note that every region has a negative trend:
Summer temperatures and trends Ā°F, 2001-2011. Note that 5 of 9 regions have a negative summertime trend:
And finally here is the Annual yearly mean temperature trend for the last decade. Since 2011 is not yet complete for annual data (though is for Winter and Summer data), I’ve plotted the last decade available, from 2000-2010:
Only 1 of 9 regions has a positive decadal trend for the Annual mean temperature, the Northeast.
This data is from USHCN2, from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Note that I have not adjusted it or even self plotted it in any way. The output graphs and trend numbers are from NCDC’s publicly available “Climate At A Glance” database interface, and these can be fully replicated by anyone easily simply by going here and choosing “regions”:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/cag3.html
I find the fact that summer temperatures were negative in five of 9 regions interesting. But most importantly, the trend for the CONUS for the past 10 years is not flat, but cooling.
The trend line for the contiguous lower 48 states looks like this for the same period when we plot the Annual mean temperature data for 2001-2010 (we can’t plot 2011 yet since the year isn’t complete):
And if we back it up a year, to 2000, so that we get ten full years, we get this:
So according the the National Climatic Data Center, it seems clear that for at least the last 10 years, there has been a cooling trend in the Annual mean temperature of the contiguous United States. Pat Michaels in his GWPF essay talks about 1996 :
A significant trend since these periods began is not going to emerge anytime soon. MSU temperatures are plummeting and are now below where they were at this time of the year in the 2008 La Nina. NOAA is predicting an extreme La Nina low in 2012. If the 1976-98 warming trend is re-established in 2013, post-1996 warming would not become significant until 2021.
So when you run the NCDC “climate at a glance” plotter from 1996 for the USA on Annual mean temperature data for the contiguous United States for 15 years of data, you get this, flatness:
Warming, for the USA seems pretty “stalled” to me in the last 10-15 years. Bear in mind that BEST uses the same data source for the USA, the USCHN2 data. Granted, this isn’t a standard 30 year climatology period we are examining, but the question about the last 10 years is still valid. “Aerosol masking” has been the reason given by the Team. Blame China.
For the inevitable whining and claims of cherry picking that will come in comments, here’s the complete data set from NCDC plotted from 1895. I added the 1934 reference line in blue:
Interestingly, we’ve had only two years that exceeded 1934 for Annual mean temperature in the United States and they were El NiƱo related. 1998 and 2006 both had El NiƱo events.
While the United States is not the world, it does have some of the best weather data available, no pun intended. Given the NCDC data for CONUS, it certainly seems to me that warming has stalled for the United States in the last decade.
UPDATE: 11/06/2011 8AM PST
When I wrote the post above, I had concerns that the 1998 and 2006 peaks might not have actually exceeded 1934. I didn’t have the energy to explore the issue last night. This morning looking anew, I recalled the GISS Y2K debacle and recovered the graphs from Hansen’s 1999 press release. This was originally part of āLights Out Upstairsā a guest post by Steve McIntyre on my old original blog. Just look at how much warmer 1934 was in 1999 than it is now. Much of this can be attributed to NCDC’s USHCN2 adjustments.
=============================================================
Steve wrote then:
In the NASA press release in 1999 , Hansen was very strongly for 1934. He said then:
The U.S. has warmed during the past century, but the warming hardly exceeds year-to-year variability.Indeed, in the U.S. the warmest decade was the 1930s and the warmest year was 1934.
This was illustrated with the following depiction of US temperature history, showing that 1934 was almost 0.6 deg C warmer than 1998.
From a Hansen 1999 News Release: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/hansen_07/fig1x.gif
However within only two years, this relationship had changed dramatically. In Hansen et al 2001 (referred to in the Lights On letter), 1934 and 1998 were in a virtual dead heat with 1934 in a slight lead. Hansen et al 2001 said
The U.S. annual (January-December) mean temperature is slightly warmer in 1934 than in 1998 in the GISS analysis (Plate 6)ā¦ the difference between 1934 and 1998 mean temperatures is a few hundredths of a degree.
From Hansen et al 2001 Plate 2. Note the change in relationship between 1934 and 1998.
Between 2001 and 2007, for some reason, as noted above, the ranks changed slightly with 1998 creeping into a slight lead.
The main reason for the changes were the incorporation of an additional layer of USHCN adjustments by Karl et al overlaying the time-of-observation adjustments already incorporated into Hansen et al 1999. Indeed, the validity and statistical justification of these USHCN adjustments is an important outstanding issue.
============================================================
I’ve prepared a before and after graph using the CONUS values from GISS in 1999 and in 2011 (today).
GISS writes now of the bottom figure:
Annual Mean Temperature Change in the United States
Annual and five-year running mean surface air temperature in the contiguous 48 United States (1.6% of the Earth’s surface) relative to the 1951-1980 mean. [This is an update of Figure 6 in Hansen et al. (1999).]
Also available as PDF, or Postscript. Also available are tabular data.
So clearly, the two graphs are linked, and 1998 and 1934 have swapped positions for the “warmest year”. 1934 went down by about 0.3Ā°C while 1998 went up by about 0.4Ā°C for a total of about 0.7Ā°C.
And they wonder why we don’t trust the surface temperature data.
In fairness, most of this is the fault of NCDC’s Karl, Menne, and Peterson, who have applied new adjustments in the form of USHCN2 (for US data) and GHCN3 (to global data). These adjustments are the primary source of this revisionism. As Steve McIntyre often says: “You have to watch the pea under the thimble with these guys”.
============================================================
UPDATE2: 10:30AM PST 11/07/2011 – Dr. Pat Michaels writes in with an update.
Anthony–
The post on Muller is a little long in the tooth but I do need to correct something.
The comment was that I said NOAA was predicting an “extreme” La Nina in 2012.Ā That was true when I wrote it, but since then the October 31 forecast has come out and I used that in my most recent posting on this at the Cato site:
http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=13827
Here’s the relevant portion from the text:
We are currently experiencing another ā for now ā moderate La NiƱa, or the cold phase of El NiƱo. Satellite temperatures, as of this writing, have dropped below where they were in the previous La NiƱa of 2008, so 2011 isn’t going to be particularly warm compared to the average of the last 15 years.
In addition, the latest forecast from the Department of Commerce’s Climate Prediction Center is for the current La NiƱa to become stronger and persist through at least the first half of 2012:
Consequently, 2012, like 2011, is not likely to be particularly warm when compared to the last 15 years.
Alternatively you can just ask folks how the tomatoes in the garden have worked out… š
I live in the UK, and I’ve now officially given up on tomatoes after wasting my time those past 4 summers. š
REPLY: Maybe we need a global garden tomato success index as a proxy for temperature – Anthony
I do not think the phrase “global warming” means what the Warmista think it means.
This article looks really good on my smart phone!
I believe that you will find, as I did when I looked, that the recent rise in temperatures along the Eastern Seaboard, including the Northeast came after a decline in their average temperatures from 1950 to 1965 approximately. (See posts on the topic at Bit Tooth Energy and on one of the effects of that drop on the black capped chickadee .
Avid UK gardener here and I, too, have given up on tomatoes; I’ve even given up on trying to grow chillies and peppers in the greenhouse. They simply don’t produce. I’ve spent the last two growing seasons experimenting with what are known as cold-weather crops with some success.
I can no longer grow the proliferation of crops with which I am so familiar. It is just not warm enough for long enough.
Whoa. Are the NASA/NOAA/EPA outright lying? While i was aware of a general cooling trend, that shows a complete reversal of the entire 1980-1998 warming trend.
The warming appears to have stalled while we see:
Biggest jump ever seen in global warming gases
Link: http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/story/2011-11-03/huge-increase-in-global-warming-gasses/51065082/1
I know: correllation doesn’t mean causation, but still…
are the increased “global warming gases” stopping the warming?
There never was any ‘global’ warming,
which necesarily means that temperatures rise everywhere,
whereas in truth much of the world actually cooled off
over the last 50 years (Antarctica and high-latitude southern oceans)
and only another part (northern latitudes) actually warmed much.
GW is nothing but a two-word lie when applied
to a pseudo-science ‘average temperature anomaly’,
which as a global-status indicator is a 100% fraud.
Their current ‘global-wilding’ mantra is even more pathetic.
I’m going to join the others here and say my own “seat of the pants” impression is that it has been cooler overall, summer and winter, over the last several years. Sure, here in Maryland we had a month long spell this summer of 90+ days, but the heat was late getting here, and it cooled off fast afterward. In other words, the growing season was too short this year for what we planted. Our garden was a disaster. Last year was little better. And my impression is that the winters for the last few years have had longer periods of bitter cold. In fact, last winter I put a heat lamp in the chicken house to help keep it warmer at night. But I’m not a climate scientist, just an accountant. What do I know about climate.
Great article. Nothing like the cold hard facts slapping the warmistas in the face. Of course I am sure the warmistas will tell us that CONUS is not climate so this data means nothing blah blah blah…sure and Santy Claus will be right down the chimney. Perhaps Dr. Muller should turn his PhD credentials into the nearest Al Gore fan club in exchange for some nice robes and other church of Gore paraphenalia…while I was still working at JSC we had a plaque on the wall that read “In God we trust, all others bring data” -this article nails it.
While at JSC I was also privy to a few 2nd hand emails from Mr. Rutan and his comments at one of the last few Shuttle launches and being in the presence of Mr. John Holdren…something about “I must turn away lest i sully my hands with the blood of a fool” …I like Mr. Rutan very much, smart man, brilliant engineer. He has some great charts floating around on the web with his take on globull warming from a few years ago, as I recall they were very well put together, a quick google search will turn them up if anyone is interested.
Quite OT, but the newest five reviews to Donna’s book are all from the CAGW camp.
So desperate…….
In reply to JohnWho,
It’s obvious that CO2 is putting out the fire,after all everyone knows about CO2 fire extinguishers.Lets have more CO2 at hand just in case Globull Warming gets out of control.
Hello IPCC, UNFCCC, GREEN PEACE, CARNEGIE Instituion of science and others; looking forward to hearing from all of you!!!!
Challenge to IPCC / UNFCCC, SHAME ON YOU
Solution to CC and Power crisis
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Email: dev.dangol@yahoo.co.uk
āalready sent to the addressees, green peace and many others throughout the worldā
Mike, Gavin, don’t stress…
In a few years this data will be homoginized, adjusted, corrected and smoothed and all will be good again š
I have just read The Inconvenient Skeptic by John Kehr. He addresses the long term temperature trends in considerable detail and makes some extremely interesting points about trends as well as Radiative Heat Transfer. I am keen to hear views and reviews of John Kehr’s work – from my reading of it, in spite of the appalling editing quality of the book (Kindle version), it is a ground breaking study, but then, I am only an architect. What do you say Willis?
To follow up on my last comment and to demonstrate that I am not OT one of the points John Kerr makes from his study of ice core data and a comparison of the Holocene with the Eemian is that the last 1,000 years is the coolest 1,000 year period in the last 9,000 years – a statistic that puts this discussion of the last 15 years into perspective!
Hexe Froschbein says:
November 5, 2011 at 6:10 pm
Alternatively you can just ask folks how the tomatoes in the garden have worked outā¦ š
I live in the UK, and Iāve now officially given up on tomatoes after wasting my time those past 4 summers. š
REPLY: Maybe we need a global garden tomato success index as a proxy for temperature ā Anthony
________________________________________
Not a bad idea Anthony. Plants do not LIE. They also say MORE CO2 please.
I wonder if 1934 really has been beaten.
Burt Rutan says:
November 5, 2011 at 6:43 pm
Yes THAT Burt Rutan.
Ah! THAT Burt Rutan! Whoās Burt Rutan?
________________________________________
In the world of my flying hobby THAT Burt Rutan is one of the most highly regarded engineers and persons ever in aviation, aerodynamics, aero structures and just plain good old fashioned innovative engineering of a standard beyond any other’s plus a common sense approach to life and the world around us that is rarely matched on this planet.
And this is from an old Australian power and glider pilot who will never be lucky enough to meet THAT Burt Rutan in person.
REPLY: Actually that comment wasn’t from the real Burt Rutan, it was from some faker in the UK. Email and IP didn’t match, so I deleted it. I’m honored that Burt follows WUWT, and emails me tips. – Anthony
Here’s the issue. Even if 2012 is cold, and 1997-2012 rss data shows no trend (16 years), the warmistas say that the trend can be masked by enso events/aerosols/etc. Even if that is true, how strong can CO2 be if it can be masked for 16 years? Proverbial mountain out of a molehill, or a solution (global control of energy) looking for a problem.
Temp is flat for 10 yrs, or more.
What coal trains of death? World wide coal consumption has increased from 50% from 5 MST to 7.6 MST from 2000 to 2009.
http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2011/10/steep-increase-in-global-co2-emissions.html
Which mirrors a CO2 increase of 50% from 2000 to 2010.
http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2011/10/steep-increase-in-global-co2-emissions.html
It does not matter as long as the progressives are in control of the world economies and the political structures. They will continue their barrage of climate control policies. The only way to stop this is by the vote. What is it that people don’t understand? What will happen if they win again? Hmmmm?
First snow seen on the mountains on mid Vancouver Island today. Windchill down to minus one Celsius prophesied. Current temperature outside my back door 2 Celsius. That’s about fifty metres above local mean sea level at 8:30pm PST.
It’s definitely cooler than usual. Although this only Weather you understand.
Isn’t the issue here exactly *which* warming we are talking about?
If I am not mistaken, there is a real warming trend since the LIA, and a stall of a decade or so does not necessarily mean that we have reached the top of this alternation.
Then there is a speculative AGW trend caused somehow by CO2. Such a trend, if it was real, should NOT have stalled as there is more CO2 than ever in the atmosphere.
It’s not just the US. Up here on the West Coast of Canada, we’ve had colder temperatures as well, with this winter looking to be no exception. Snow’s expected, and the summer was nothing if not gray.
Also, one question. Forgive me if I sound ignorant but I was wondering, when it quotes Pat Michael’s, GWPF essay,
” A significant trend since these periods began is not going to emerge anytime soon. MSU temperatures are plummeting and are now below where they were at this time of the year in the 2008 La Nina. NOAA is predicting an extreme La Nina low in 2012. If the 1976-98 warming trend is re-established in 2013, post-1996 warming would not become significant until 2021.”
Does this mean NOAA is predicting another La Nina for 2012, aside from the one predicted this year, ( and the one that occured last year as well? ) Or does it mean that this year’s La Nina will result in a low in 2012?
Cooler in the winters and warmer in the summers here in Texas and south central USA. It makes me wonder if lower water vapor content is allowing the extremes to grow. Is humidity/dew point tracked in any of the temperature records? If not, is a temperature record really indicative of heat content? I don’t see how it could be.
@J Felton
This year’s La Nina will continue well into next year.
As the AMO and PDO are both negative, and going ever moreso, it is not clear when the next El Nino will start. If someone from the Landscheidt camp is following perhaps they can comment. Landscheidt predicted a major drought in 2018 for the USA but I don’t recall if that coincided with an El Nino event.
Here in Oregon, summer finally got started in August and was over mid Sept. Got to say I have to agree with those temp. maps. Of course that’s only “weather”. Seeing as how it is already another La Nina year I’m wondering just how much summer we’ll get in 2012.
Yes….but….it’s climate change….so it fits the models….It’s warmcold! Last night I had the dubious pleasure of watching a Discovery Channel program where climate mitigation efforts are presented. One was a ‘sunshade’ in space. Only one million trillion dollars to set up. C’mon. We can do it. It might help. Freeze your tomatoes in July, that is. Then, blankets for the Greenland Icecap, to cover lakes that act like giant meltwater lenses (yes, they presented this as science), hence keeping the glaciers cool. Gee, a bit cheaper, and makes Greenland look like a giant quilt, but hey. What’s a few hectares of destroyed seabird habitat. I’m about to head back to Oilberta, where it is clearly colder this year than last.
Anthony
Forget not, by the NCDC’s own admission:
“The cumulative effect of all adjustments is approximately a one-half degree Fahrenheit warming in the annual time series over a 50-year period from the 1940’s until the last decade of the century. ”
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/ushcn/ushcn.html#QUAL
And the trend lines are interesting, but look at the actual difference in temperatures…i.e. if I run May for California, the trend is -4.82F/decade, while the last 2 Mays are actually 10-11F colder than May ten years ago…
Summer was pretty hot here in Florida, but this last week has been the coolest I can remember this early in the year. I’ve actually had to run the central heating at night and well into the day. Last winter was miserably cold, but according to the Warmists was the warmest on record. Go figure. Billions of dollars and PR companies can achieve through the media what direct observation and common sense cannot: a relentless doom and gloom perspective designed to sell papers and enrich environmental organizations, green investors, political interests, and shameless scientists. Don’t these partisan hacks realize that at some point, everyone is going to know they lied, and when that happens, they will never be believed again, and may ever after be unemployable?
I think it’s fair to say that the data for the US shows cooling but in reality if you look at the data from the last hundreds of years there has been a warming trend globally.
Problem is that the trend without the noise looks to be quiet linear. That is no real hint of CO2 acceleration.
I am firmly in the camp of, there is no crisis. There is a call to the central planners, for a flagelent reaction to an evil man, CAGW is the place where we all need to focus and there is no catastrophic.
Bill
Of course it was just weatha — BUT the recent Een of halloween (10/29-30/2011) “wintah-type” Nah-easta, as we would call it, up/down-heah in New England — from which some of us ahhh still gettin ahh powah back — set many a recahd — including:
Most Snow in Octobah in quite a numbah of places
But maybe most significant and while just weatha and outside of New England at that — Central Pahk in New Joik City (changing accents accompany changing climate) had the first snow of 1″ or greater in October since the Civil War
see http://weathernationheadlines.blogspot.com/2011/10/october-30-historic-northeast-snowstorm.html
Saturday, October 29, 2011
October 30: Historic Northeast Snowstorm (earliest snow since Civil War for New York City)
1.3″ Central Park in New York City. Snowiest October since records were first kept in 1869.
Thunder-snow reported at Harrisburg, PA yesterday.
15″ snowfall estimate in Lancaster, PA (thanks to weather spotter Volker Kruhoeffer for providing that report).
42 F. high in Baltimore and Washington D.C. (Reagan Airport) Saturday, coldest October 29 ever recorded.
Snow has fallen in Washington D.C. only 15 times in October since the late 1800s (Capital Weather Gang).
Currently 44F in Carlsbad, CA at 9:30 pm…that is COLD for Nov 4…
It’s been freezing in Southern California. Literally. Last winter our birdbaths froze solid in Oceanside, CA, in San Diego County. I expect the same to happen this month, before the onset of wither.
Winters cooling fast, summers not so fast. This should be telling us something. What?
I live in Texas about halfway between Houston and Dallas and last winter was the coldest and the longest I have seen in 13 years living on my property by a fair margin. We have a digital temperature recorder that records the current temperature as well as the daily lows and highs but when all the plumbing in the barn froze so hard that it broke all the pipes I knew that was an exceptional cold wave. Now with another strong la Nina forming I am insulating my pipes as if I lived in Nebraska.
@ Crispin in Waterloo
Thanks, the clarification is much appreciated.
Hexe F., Gail C., and Anthony
RE: tomatoes as climate proxies
I live in central Washington State near Ellensburg. Elevation is 2,240 feet. I paid $1.79 for a packet of seeds and 12 plants produced a dozen red tomatoes, another dozen colored in the kitchen. Thus, I recouped my out-of-pocket cost. I threw about 50-75 pounds of dark green ones into the compost.
The real problem was a cold spring. Very slow growth up to blossom time (late) and then night temperatures not getting to 50 degrees F. So fruit set was way late. The only reason any fruit developed was because the first two weeks of September were warm and then we did not have killing frost until just a few days ago. Okay, I covered the plants for a couple of nights in October. Note low temps in late Oct. here:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/climate/temp_graphs.php?stn=KYKM&submit=Change+Station&wfo=pdt
Wine grapes in central Washington were likewise delayed ā discounting last fallās killing early cold ā just writing about this yearās crop. Grape growers keep very good records over long periods of time. One might do a study of places such as CĆ“te-d’Or where wine grapes have been grown since before there was France.
It would seem that any annual anything that fits the dogma is trend support and anything that does not even if for 10 or more yeas is something else. It is also good to remind the great unwashed masses that nothing is evenly distributed across the continent now extrapolate that to the planet and put that one number world wide anything in file 13 where it belongs.
Sandy says:
I wonder if 1934 really has been beaten.
Of the 80 Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin surface station USHCN Version 1 raw temperature records that I have, Version 2 “adjusted” 44 of the 1934 temperatures down, some by large amounts. The remainder were left alone, or adjusted upward, but not by as much as the typical downward adjustment. Most 1998 temps were left alone or fiddled only slightly. As close as 1998 was to being as warm as 1934, I don’t doubt that all the finagling moved ’34 below the recent peak.
Last 4 straight years here in the SF Bay area summers have been very cool. At best a few days above 100 F, when normally there would be easily a dozen.
Tomatoes have been a pain in the ass each year…whereas in the 80s and 90s the ease of growing tomatoes was right up there with zucchini.
Each year I’m having to seriously curtail watering…have sacks ready in case of surprise Spring frost and early Fall frost…still no matter what I do – I’m lucky to use 20% percent of what grows – that is if the plants don’t succumb to fungus and viruses that become very prevalent when it is too cold.
I literally planted 3 times as many plants this year as I normally do (12) hoping to get just 4. Actually ended up with 7. 2 got wiped out by fungus early October. Fingering I’d better not waste my luck – if we didn’t eat the tomatoes in 2 days – they became canned Salsa.
Tore up the entire garden just last weekend…leaving behind only lettuce, scallions. bell pepper and one eggplant.
=8-)
Not sure if it was mentioned yet but Dr. Muller will be on Bill Wattenburg’s radio show tomorrow night on KGO 810 AM from the San Francisco area starting at 10 PM PST and might go for at least a few hours according to Dr. Wattenburg. They will be talking about BEST apparently and Dr. Wattenburg said tonight that he’s a bit of a skeptic as far as the overall impact of global warming or man’s role in it but he seems to be uite a fan of Dr. Muller as he’s had him on the show a few times before and they discussed things like physics iirc…
thought i’d post in case anyone was interested…
Oh the rate of warmin’s slowin’
And the skepticism’s growin’
And the snow it keeps on snowin’
And the data it is showin’
Which way the wind is blowin….
Just sayin’.
John F. Hultquist says:
November 5, 2011 at 10:17 pm
As an alternative, individually wrap each of those dark green tomatoes in a quarter sheet of newspaper, place them in an open cardboard box three or four deep (never in a plastic bucket), put the boxes on the floor of your basement or in the garage (anywhere cool but not freezing) and check them all once a week simply by giving them a pinch (what else are tomatoes for, right?). Unwrap the soft ones and you’ll find they’re red or pretty close to it; finish those off in a window sill that need more ripening and you’ll be enjoying tasty tomatoes into December and your cost/benefit ratio will improve dramatically.
Without that approach, growing tomatoes where I live (eastern Idaho around 4,500 ft elev.) would largely be a waste of time. (I planted 19 plants this year and harvested over 150 gallons of tomatoes–a lot of them were green by season’s end but many actually ripened on the vine for a change (as opposed to last year’s crop). We’ve used a lot of newspaper lately but what else is it good for without a parakeet? This year I gave the majority of my tomato crop away which makes my neighbors and relatives happy!)
In many states of the US there has been no significant warming since the beginning of the last century or since the nineteen thirties.
In other states there occures a jump in a normal course of temperatures after which there has been no more significant warming. In the West, North West and West North Central this happened in the year 1986. In the South West in 1994. In the North East and East North Central this was in 1998.
A big part of Canada shows no significant warming since 1987, the rest only shows warming in 1998 and no significant warming there after.
Alaska doesn’t show significant warming since the shift in the PDO (1978).
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/cag3.html
http://ec.gc.ca/adsc-cmda/default.asp?lang=En&n=77842065-1
http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/Climate/Location/TimeSeries/index.html
Richard Muller is schedualed for two hours with Dr. Bill Wattenberg on KGO radio Sunday evening after 10 pm if anyone is interested.
Trying to establish long term trends from 10, year periods looks pretty dangerous to me especially considering the amount of random variation visible to anyone with eyes in these graphs.
And of course la nina pops up in this period so by putting a strong la Nina at the end of the 10 year period you are definitely going to get a negative trend.
Jumping on the Tomato Thread…
I didn’t bother growing tomatoes at all this year. More surprising, I had no volunteers either. ( I usually get many as a lot of tomatoes hit the ground and I use a modified no-till in many squares, plus have gaps between the pavers where they sprout). Only year I got decent tomatoes was 1998 ( I have a shaded somewhat cool garden), since then it’s been downhill.
OTOH, I have some kale that did wonderfully… in SUMMER. Many things that usually croak in summer heat had No Problem this year. I did have to abandon the garden in July (leaving it in the hands of the spouse) as I ran off to work a contact for a few months. What survived was all cool tolerant. Cabbages, kales, etc.
We’ve been having a significant cold turn (near San Francisco, California) and then there was that snow in Arizona…
BTW, don’t toss green tomatoes. Fried Green Tomatoes are very very nice š
So yes, a ‘tomato index’ would be a very good and reliable thing… You can also use Runner Beans to measure heat waves. They have flower drop when it’s very hot. (Over somewhere around 95 F they don’t set well). So Tomatoes tell you when nights stay above 50 F and Runner Beans tell you when days max over 95 F. Other plants have other ‘calibrations’ š Most seeds won’t sprout below 50 F soil and many prefer about 70 F, so late springs show as late sprouting (thus later harvests).
At any rate, it’s cooling, rather a lot, and it’s not going to shift to warming any time soon. Anyone with a garden knows that. What the ‘fiddled with records’ say isn’t all that useful to me anymore…
Ski resorts closed late last year. They are opening early this year (one opened after that Halloween Storm somewhere in the North East IIRC). Ski resorts don’t lie either… can’t have snow if it’s not cold. So a record of open / close dates is useful. Seems to me I remember skiing this year well into summer. Yup, a google finds it:
http://www.google.com/search?q=fathers+day+skiing&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a
And that silly Warmer nonsense about more snow from being warmer is just a dog that won’t hunt. When it’s warm, you get rain, not snow.
At any rate, it’s good to see even the dodgy data we do have is showing some cooling. That’s got to really ‘frost the shorts’ of the Data Doctors in charge of it š And with reality providing limits on how much fudge you can push, well, it’s got to be an interesting time in Adjustments Land as they decide where their Jump The Shark moment will come… IMHO, of course.
Interesting.
This type of irresponsible reporting of the actual facts places the whole multi-billion dollar climate industry into peril.
Tens of thousands of decent, honourable people have their livelihoods dependent on only having their carefully interpreted data released to the public.
What could these people do, if your kind of irresponsible reporting became better known? These are difficult economic times, they might become unemployable and that would be terrible.
The public needs to have information, especially on climate, carefully filtered to it by sources it has been told are responsible and accurate. You should realise reality and truth are very dangerous for untrained minds, these both require constant adjustments and filtering in order that the general public only receives what is deemed best for it.
The individual temperature records show a very different picture to the global one. Here is CET -temperatures are dropping like a stone
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/
tonyb
i have one question……and i am starting to ask this every web site i can……how much is too much carbon dioxide?……
humans live in alaska….and marble bar (australia)……so do not tell me about temperature ever again…..
if the problem is carbon dioxide….what is the amount when we all die…..
Come on NCDC, switch to Celsius
Please tell me that ENSO meter isn’t swinging left.
After a year where we had only ~2 months without substantial cloud cover I’m not looking forward to another cool wet summer – making it almost 3 in a row.
Thank you all. I am now happy a tomato gardener!
I live in Denmark and started my amateur tomato gardening career 3 years ago. Need I say that I failed big and, consequently, suffered from severe mental health problems and low self esteem because of my unsuccessful production.
After reading the comments here, my ego got a big boost. Life is worth living again! I may not be as lousy a tomato grower, as I first assumed.
You guys have made my day!
A big thank you to RockyRoad for the newspaper hint. I will try that next “summer”…..
6 ripened beefsteak tomatoes, 50 cherry tomatoes. Garage has 3 plants hanging with green tomatoes which I had hoped would ripen. We’ve had two good snow storms already. Counter covered with green tomatoes and they will not ripen. Bah!
Here in SW France we have had the best year ever for garden ‘fruit’. I still have some strawberries, pumpkin and tomatoes to pick but that will be the last. In recent years there appears to have been a shift in the seasons. Spring has been late, summer has been average and autumn long. Winter has tended to arrive with a bump although winter here is no more than a cold night, usually.
climatereason says:
November 6, 2011 at 1:22 am
The individual temperature records show a very different picture to the global one. Here is CET -temperatures are dropping like a stone
Hey Tony, did you see the viseo on the talk given by that ——- Black at the BBC. His version of the graph is totally diffferent. WUWT?
“if the problem is carbon dioxideā¦.what is the amount when we all dieā¦..”
The air you breathe out is about 4% CO2 which is 40,000 ppm. So CO2 can’t hurt until it displaces the oxygen and you die from asphyxiation.
At the other end plants die when CO2 gets much below 200ppm which would kill all live.
So at 400ppm and rising things are moving in the right direction. š
Crispin in Waterloo says: “As the AMO and PDO are both negative…”
The AMO is not negative, and has not had a negative reading for more than two years:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data
I wonder if Richard Black (oops! I just spat on the keyboard) is reading this?
climatereason says:
November 6, 2011 at 1:22 am
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
I can certainly confirm that temperatures in London have been dropping these past 6 or 7 years. We have had a series of cooler summers and much colder winters. In fact snow has been quite common!
I have now moved to Spain and these past couple of weeks have been unusually damn cold and I am even thinking about lighting a fire which I would not normally think about until December (but that is just weather [no saec]).
I can’t resist entering the tomato proxy debate.
My experience with greenhouse tomato crops this year maps the years weather well here in rural NW England. A slow start due to a cool, extended spring. First harvest several weeks later than usual (although I changed the types of tomato grown this year so wouldn’t place too much reliance on this) but have subsequently had bumper crops over an extended period, and am still harvesting the last few. My neighbour still has outdoor tomatoes ripening on the plants. Autumn here has been consistently warm and wet with many trees still bearing leaves and autumn raspberries still cropping well.
Nevertheless I would caution against drawing too many conclusions from the performance of garden crops, since the best year I experienced had more to do with the acquisition of a cart-load of horse manure than the climate.
“Grape growers keep very good records over long periods of time. One might do a study of places such as CĆ“te-dāOr where wine grapes have been grown since before there was France.”
Actually a French professor has done this. Also grain sale records. As I understand it it shows LIA and MWP -But no runaway modern warming.
This year I tried an Italian plum tomato plant with good results. The one plant appeared to be somewhat more resistant to the bugs and fungus that affected the other tomato plants. Perhaps that is just because it is new and next year the enemies will be geared up for it! I shall try again next year.
Steve T
Sandy says:
November 5, 2011 at 7:30 pm
I wonder if 1934 really has been beaten.
Sandy says:
November 5, 2011 at 7:30 pm
I wonder if 1934 really has been beaten.
_________________________________
No. It has not
NOAA admits to “Adjusting” data: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/ushcn/ushcn.html
Graph of Adjustments from article: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/ushcn/ts.ushcn_anom25_diffs_pg.gif
Blink graph of effects of Hansen adjustments on USA data: http://i31.tinypic.com/2149sg0.gif
NASA GISS ā Adjusting the Adjustments: http://climateaudit.org/2010/12/26/nasa-giss-adjusting-the-adjustments/
REPLY: Maybe we need a global garden tomato success index as a proxy for temperature ā Anthony
Why not? James Lovelock uses daisies.
;^)
Here at my place in central Virginia, the spring crops of peas and arugula were excellent, and stayed around later than usual. Spinach and lettuce hardly germinated at all. Summer crops were a disaster. Tomatoes grew well, hardly bloomed, set maybe 3 fruit all summer. Eggplants were even worse. There were a few hot spells, and I at first thought they had affected the plants negatively; but now I think they were too late and too short. We planted pumpkins, which sprouted well, grew tremendously, had a few flowers, and produced one (1) pumpkin about the size of a potato; the vines died, all of a sudden, and I harvested the pumpkin, which rotted in a couple of weeks. Compost. Granted, I am not a high-tech or gifted veggie gardener (though we do grow other plants, mainly 15,000 daylilies, which of course did just fine, though mostly they bloomed about 2-3 weeks later than normal); but these results with the vegetables were dismal. Oh, I forgot the lima beans: Lots of great plants, occasional blooms, not one bean. Killing freeze has already arrived, last week of October, 2-3 weeks earlier than normal. Purely anecdotal evidence, to be sure; and yet, a few years ago, killing freeze didn’t arrive till the first week of December. (I also point out that my daylily seeds, planted as usual March 15-20, did phenomenally well, never encountering the burning heat that so often crisps them up by mid-June.)
Denis of Perth, Australia says:
November 6, 2011 at 1:23 am
“if the problem is carbon dioxideā¦.what is the amount when we all dieā¦..”
CO2 is considered to be toxic at atmospheric levels above 5% (50,000 ppm), although Its effects usually become noticeable when levels reach 20,000 ppm. Compare this to the current atmospheric level of 400ppm. If you are indoors at the moment, you are probably experiencing 800 to 1,000 ppm.
Most National Health and Safety bodies typically specify a limit of between 5,000 and 10,000 ppm, for continuous exposure to CO2 in the work place.
CO2 at concentrations around 20,000 ppm. is often pumped into commercial greenhouses to kill animal pests and, of course, promote plant growth.
John F. Hultquist
50-75 pounds of dark green ones into the compost?
Try Granny’s Green Tomato Chutney
Following on:
I wonder if Richard Black grows tomatoes?
Denis of Perth, Australia says:
November 6, 2011 at 1:23 am
ā¦how much is too much carbon dioxide?ā¦[…]ā¦.what is the amount when we all dieā¦..
Don’t panick, please.
NIOSH (The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health of the US) has good online data on that.
NIOSH REL (Recommended Exposure Limit) for COā is 5,000 ppmv. It is more than 12 times above current atmospheric concentration (which is somewhat below 400 ppmv), so we still have quite some safety margin.
It is worth explicating that REL is supposed to be a limit below which no ill effect whatsoever is expected for a substance, so it does not mean right above 5,000 ppmv “we all die”, quite the contrary.
Exhaled air has a COā concentration of about 4% (40,000 ppmv), which happens to be the official IDLH (Immediately Dangerous to Life or Health) value, while LCLo (lowest concentration causing death) is 90,000 ppmv. With high enough concentrations the real danger is in losing consciousness. If rescued in time and normal breathing is restored, there is no lasting toxic effect.
At the same time CDC says “It has been reported that submarine personnel exposed continuously at 30,000 ppm were only slightly affected, provided the oxygen content of the air was maintained at normal concentrations [Schaefer 1951 *]”. It makes sense; as long as ambient level is below that of exhaled air, the body should be able to get rid of it. The warning about normal oxygen content is important, for it is often the case that high COā implies low oxygen, like in ill ventilated vine cellars (but you should be able to test it with a candle held well below your head, preferably attached to a stick).
Actually even long term exposure to 1% (10,000 ppmv) is quite safe. Below that level no one, including the respiratorily challenged, experiences any effect, not even slight drowsiness.
* Schaefer KE [1951]. Studies of carbon dioxide toxicity. New London, CT: Navy Department, Bureau of Medicine and Surgery, Medical Research Laboratory, U.S. Naval Submarine Base, Vol. 10, Report No. 181, pp. 156-189.
jack morrow says:
November 5, 2011 at 8:07 pm
It does not matter as long as the progressives are in control of the world economies and the political structures. They will continue their barrage of climate control policies. The only way to stop this is by the vote. What is it that people donāt understand? What will happen if they win again? Hmmmm?
_________________________________________________
If you really want to know read what World Trade Organization Director-General Pascal Lamy has written:
Of What Use is Global Governance? : http://theglobaljournal.net/article/view/56/
WTO Chief Says World Facing New Leadership Patterns: http://theglobaljournal.net/article/view/284/
(Note: Maurice Strong of the 1972 First Earth Summit and Kyoto Accord is now senior Advisor to China…)
Pascal Lamy: Need Truly Global Monetary System: http://theglobaljournal.net/article/view/256/
http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_home.html
Global Governance 2025
Global Governance 2025: At a Critical Juncture: http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_2025/2025_Global_Governance.pdf
NIC’s 2008 Global Trends 2025 study: http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html
Global Governance 2025 | Atlantic Council
http://www.acus.org/publication/global-governance-2025
The idea is to use the EU as a model where the masses vote for an “elected leadership” who takes their orders from an UNELECTED international group. It does not matter what the masses want they will be over ruled all the while being told they are living in a “Democracy” Think the US bank Bailouts.
Global warming as I and many others have been saying for a long time is not actually a global issue but rather a local issue/phenomen. It is clear that the ‘global’ part of the mantra is claimed only for political reasons, namely we are all in it together, we all need to act to solve a common problem that affects us all. This is a clear lie. It is undoubtedly the case that warming is very variable and whether warming and the effects thereof is a good or bad thing will very much depend upon where one happens to live. Overall I think that global warming would be a damn good thing for the planet as a whole and all species of life, although it does not appear to be happening to any significant extent.
Although the United States may not be a good model for the world as a whole, there is little reason to doubt that it is anything but a good model for the habitable areas of the Northern Hemisphere. There is a good mix of areas some of which will be influenced by the Atlantic or by the Pacific and large areas that are so far away from any ocean not to be affected by sea temperatures.
I therefore consider the data relating to the United States to be of particular interest and worthy of consideration as to what this is actually telling us about the most populated areas of the planet (the central area of the Northern Hemisphere being the most populated zone of the planet).
It would be good to see a similar assessment being made of China and Russia.
Could someone handy with charting software plot the number of compact fluorescent light bulbs sold in the U.S. on top of the annual temperature in Anthony’s plot?
Correlation is not causation but it can be entertaining nonetheless.
~FR says:
November 5, 2011 at 8:37 pm
Isnāt the issue here exactly *which* warming we are talking about?
If I am not mistaken, there is a real warming trend since the LIA, and a stall of a decade or so does not necessarily mean that we have reached the top of this alternation….
___________________________-
And there has been a REAL COOLING trend since the beginning of the Holocene.
Temperature is the red line. The present is on the left and there is a gradual decline in temperature: http://rogerfromnewzealand.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/holocene_delta_t_and_delta_co2_full2.jpg
The Vostok ice core shows a similar slight cooling trend (present on the right) http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_cHhMa7ARDDg/SsVwqCgB-LI/AAAAAAAABKo/U92CnYMmeSU/s1600-h/Vostok-400Kd.jpg
Greenland Ice core: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_C5VMt0Sqis0/TR5KfItHnmI/AAAAAAAAGCo/rTZUWkAX1Jo/s1600/10000%2Byear%2Btemp%2Bchart.JPG
Relying on double fudged data gives false impressions…
http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c0147e267018f970b-pi
So, the 2011-12 La Nina is predicted to be a long trudge.
There is no doubt about the progress of it so far in NW Calif.
We just received our 2nd earliest snowfall in our town’s history, about 1/2 “. The earliest being Nov 3rd, 2003, which is right around the time of SC23 2nd Max.
According to my heating oil bill index we are in an ice age!
The annual temperatures in Oslo, Norway (Blindern-series), shows the same. It’s getting colder, and like Tony B wrote about CET-temperatures, they are dropping like a stone.
1997-2010 annual:
http://klimaforskning.com/forum/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=237.0;attach=787;image
2000-2010 annual:
http://klimaforskning.com/forum/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=237.0;attach=789;image
Take a look at what the BEST (Bogus Erroneous Stupid Temperatures) have done with the Blindern Oslo series. Annual temperatures in Ā°C compared with Meteorologisk Institutt (Norwegian Met):
http://klimaforskning.com/forum/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=202.0;attach=696;image
richard verney says:
November 6, 2011 at 4:44 am
“It is undoubtedly the case that warming is very variable and whether warming and the effects thereof is a good or bad thing will very much depend upon where one happens to live.”
Piffle. There are no credible documented detrimental effects from the amount of warming that took place from 1970-2000 and plenty of beneficial ones. It’s all future shock scenarios about what happens if temperature doesn’t stop going up. There are few if any actual complaints that it’s too warm. Cooling on the other hand, that’s where you get the real complaints and they’re immediate. Crops getting severely damaged by late spring or early fall frosts, crops that will no longer grow well at all because there aren’t enough warm days, not enough snow moving equipment because of 30 years of mild winters, power outtages and people freezing to death, winter cold/flu season taking a rising death toll on the very old and very young, and a whole lot more. Ski resorts in areas with marginal cold and snowfall are the only ones that got hurt AFAIK.
And let’s not forget me down in sub-tropical south-central Texas with water pipes & tanks freezing and bursting that had never frozen before because it hadn’t got so cold for so long, the cold Pacific ocean (La Nina) causing a drought that’s about to start breaking 20th century records for severity, electric demand skyrocketing beyond capacity in the winter because with so little need for indoor heating (before now) everyone uses inefficient electrical heating. The February 2011 rolling blackouts in Texas were caused by frozen water pipes at two coal-fired power plants which had to shut down which in turn shut down electric booster pumps on natural gas pipelines which caused 11 gas-fired power plants to drastically reduce output for lack of fuel.
This is all not-at-all surprising for anyone who’s lived long enough to recall what the cooler climate of 1940-1970 was like compared to the warmer climate of 1970-2000. I’ve been saying for many years people become spoiled by the mild winters of recent decades are in for a real sobering experience when the temperature pendulum starts swinging back the other way. It sucks already it’s hardly even started.
So who the f**k is actually saying “gosh I’m glad it’s getting cooler now instead of warmer”. Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Anyone?
LazyTeenager says:
November 6, 2011 at 12:40 am
Trying to establish long term trends from 10, year periods looks pretty dangerous to me especially considering the amount of random variation visible to anyone with eyes in these graphs.
That’s funny, I didn’t see a word anywhere about trying to establish a long term trend, and yet, despite “random” variation, a negative trend for the past decade can be clearly seen. It must take very special filtering goggles to both not see what is plain to all, yet at the same time see what is invisible.
John F. Hultquist says:
November 5, 2011 at 10:17 pm
Hexe F., Gail C., and Anthony
RE: tomatoes as climate proxies
I live in central Washington State near Ellensburg…..
I am in North Carolina and we have had two cool springs here too.
In Sanford, the middle of the State, I count by July tenth 43 days over ninety F for 2004 vs 26 days for 2010, and four days of 98F in 2010 vs nine days of 98F in 2004.
Central North Carolina (Sanford)Monthly temps over 90F for.2004.&.2010
April 2010 (1)………..April 2004 (6)
1day ā 91F……………..2 days – 91F
………………………………4 days – 93F
In 2011 the April highs ranged from 55F to 86F we did not see temps over 90F (91F) until May23th!!! It was more like New England than the south.
May 2010 (4)………………May 2004 (17)
4day – 91F……………..6 days ā 91F
…………………………….6 days – 93F
…………………………… 2 days – 95F
…………………………….1 days ā 96F
…………………………….2 days – 98F
Then we got a FREEZE that killed the tomatoes in October!!! We normally get snow maybe once every five years. That is why I moved here. No snow but not too hot.
At this rate they are going to have to redraw the USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map
RockyRoad says:
November 5, 2011 at 11:26 pm
John F. Hultquist says:
November 5, 2011 at 10:17 pm
As an alternative, individually wrap each of those dark green tomatoes in a quarter sheet of newspaper…..
_____________________________
Did that up north (MA) and it works great. They still taste better than the commercial cardboard tomatoes although not as good as vine ripe.
The US winter cooling trend shows up very clearly in winter heating degree days and it correlates inversely with the NAO.
I should have said that the winter heating degree days correlates inversely with the NAO. The cooling trend correlates positively with the NAO.
Two days ago I woke up to find the morning low temperature was 27F. It was the first freeze here since last winter. This morning the low was 67F. Talk about contrast.
I would question whether even 30 years is long enough to detect long term climatic trends, particularly on a regional basis, when PDO and AMO cycles can last 50-60 years.
It is the insistence on looking at 30 year trends that allows Warmistas to measure trends from the colder 1960’s and 1970’s as Katharine Hayhoe has done with Texas Winter temperatures.
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2011/10/12/questions-for-katharine/
In many plots above, your “Average Temperature” lines fall entirely below the “Actual Temperature”.
WUWT?
This is absolutely in line with trends in the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) index, driver of the climatic oscillations in the temperate zone and the northern latitudes of the North Hemisphere. The NAO has been on a down slope since 1995.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NAOn.htm
According to my calculations for the NAP-index (I devised for the N. Atlantic, see my links) and which leads the NAO by up to a decade, the current cooling process was predictable and is likely continue for some time to come.
Future is ācoolā !
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET-NV.htm
Denis of Perth, Australia says:
November 6, 2011 at 1:23 am
if the problem is carbon dioxideā¦.what is the amount when we all dieā¦..
No worries, mate. If we simply take evasive action according to the Alarmists’ “science”, we worker slaves will all be dead long before that. Our World Communist Masters will have also either died of starvation, killed each other off – for the children or in the interests of peace, equality, justice, or something – or will have to commit suicide themselves anyway, because of those “suspicious”, thus “bourgeois”, thoughts that just keep popping into their own heads as well. Problem solved!
have not been able to grow peppers for the last four years (9 miles n of Boston)–last year half their growth was in a two week periods in August.
One new problem with your tomato crops is Late Blight – the Irish Potato Famine fungus – which has made a big comeback in the past three years due to the cooler, wetter, cloudier weather. Because it is more widespread, even the bedding plants bought at your local supplier might be carrying it. But it wouldn’t have spread so far without the weather conditions.
It hits tomatoes, potatoes, eggplant, celery and can wipe out a crop in a few days. The spores can stay around for a few years and if your garden got hit in the last two years, you need to apply fungicides/copper dust now and a few times early in the spring again.
G’day, this might be a faq, but why do we get to excuse 1998 and 2006 as being just because of El NiƱo? I’ve been looking a bit at this scepticism stuff a bit this weekend, and I’ve seen that happen a few times (most significantly in the graph explaining sunspots are the cause, not people, which somehow tries to remove the effect).
This year and last are La Nina years. Should we excuse the lower temperatures just because of that?
El NiƱo and La NiƱa are part of the data. How can we excuse them?
The Pat Michaels quote prompted me to dredge this one up:
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2009/07/noaa-explains-global-temperature.html
with the post’s last sentence being of particular interest. Is it time to hold NOAA’s feet to the fire yet?
Ibrahim says:
November 6, 2011 at 12:16 am
In many states of the US there has been no significant warming since the beginning of the last century or since the nineteen thirties……
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/cag3.html
__________________________________
If you look at the map. the states in the USA interior are those showing “Cooling” while those along the coast show the warming trends.
Frank Lancer has done some work also and found the coastal areas follow sea surface temp while inland locations do not.
We already know that oceans have temperature oscillations and that is a lot of what is being pick up as a “Warming trend”
Frank’s Site:http://hidethedecline.eu/pages/posts/ruti-global-land-temperatures-1880-2010-part-1-244.php
A more readable version: http://joannenova.com.au/2011/10/messages-from-the-global-raw-rural-data-warnings-gotchas-and-tree-ring-divergence-explained/#comment-625436
If you remove the influence of the ocean oscillations you may then get the overall cooling trend as shown by the interior of the USA. The PDO and AMO seem to be heading into the cooling part of their cycles. (Bob Tisdale would have a heck of a lot better handle on that then I would)
PDO 23 year cycle: http://www.enterstageright.com/archive/articles/0508/0508globalcooling.htm
Article alleges the PDO was not discovered until 1996???
Bob Tisdale on PDO: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/30/yet-even-more-discussions-about-the-pacific-decadal-oscillation-pdo/
2009 WUWT: The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ā not quite cool yet. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/07/14/the-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-not-quite-cool-yet/
Bob Tisdale on PDO & AMO http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2011/06/08/on-the-amopdo-dataset/
I think we will be seeing much more desperation on the part of the Warmists. As can be seen here at WUWT we have people talking to each other from all over the world and the excuse it is “warming elsewhere” does not hold up for long in the mind of the public, especially when people in Australia, San Francisco, North Carolina, Canada, the UK and Oregon are all complaining about the cold weather.
Denis of Perth, Australia says:
November 6, 2011 at 1:23 am
i have one questionā¦ā¦and i am starting to ask this every web site i canā¦ā¦how much is too much carbon dioxide?ā¦ā¦
humans live in alaskaā¦.and marble bar (australia)ā¦ā¦so do not tell me about temperature ever againā¦..
if the problem is carbon dioxideā¦.what is the amount when we all dieā¦..
Your question has been answered by others above.
However, the numbers given do not take into account the probability that if the atmospheric CO2 level increases gradually over centuries, we may slowly adapt to the change. Implying that a toxic level today might not be toxic in the future.
Don’t forget the positive aspects of increased CO2. We are still well below what some consider the optimum atmospheric CO2 level.
-What are the confidence intervals on these trends? Are they statistically significant?
-Can you comment on the use of short time periods to assess trends? I would be cautious given things like (http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/SkepticsvRealistsv3.gif), but maybe there’s something I’m missing?
Cheers
Gail Combs says Nov 5 8:07pm
Thanks Gail for the info. Too bad about half the population can’t even read this much less understand what it says.
In reply to Gail Combās Link & to jack morrowās comment.
jack morrow says:
November 5, 2011 at 8:07 pm
It does not matter as long as the progressives are in control of the world economies and the political structures. They will continue their barrage of climate control policies. The only way to stop this is by the vote.
The European debit crisis is a paradigm change. It becomes apparent that socialism does not work when one runs out of other peopleās money to spend. A cabal is advocating spending trillions of dollars of other peopleās money to increase the cost of electricity and manufacturing in the developed countries which will result in western countries being less competitive resulting increase job loss. The wind farms and the conversion of food to biofuel will not significant reduce CO2 emissions. China is constructing two coal plants per week.
Greenhouses inject CO2 into the āgreenhouseā to increase yield and reduce growing times. Plants eat CO2. Increasing CO2 will and is causing the biosphere to expand.
The solar magnetic cycle was at its highest activity and longest activity during the last half of the twentieth century. The period of 20th century warming correlated with a reduction in low level planetary clouds and an increase in high level planetary clouds both of which causes warming and both of which are caused by solar magnetic cycle changes.
The solar cycle has changed. The planet was started to cool which is not surprising as there is the paleoclimatic record cycles of warming and cooling that correlate with cosmogenic isotope changes which are caused by solar magnetic cycle changes.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2011/anomnight.11.3.2011.gif
Hi Gail Comb,
This is a scary link. The bureaucrats live in fantasy world of endless debate and meetings to produce more rules and regulations. It does not matter to the bureaucracy what is debated or what rules are produced as they are paid regardless of outcome.
http://theglobaljournal.net/article/view/56/
A quote from the above link.
What are the specific challenges of global governance, and what are the first obstacles to overcome?
Because legitimacy depends on closeness between the individual and the decision-making body, the second specific challenge of global governance is its inherent distance, which causes the so-called ādemocratic deficitā and lack of accountability. In sum, it means fighting the widespread perception that international decisionmaking is too remote, lacking in responsibility, and not directly accountable.
A couple of quotes from Margaret Thatcher that are applicable.
“The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money [to spend].”
Socialists cry āPower to the peopleā, and raise the clenched fist as they say it. We all know what they really meanāpower over people, power to the State.
n.b. – translation in the parlance of “the physics”: Problem solved “before it’s too late!”
Denis of Perth, Australia says:
November 6, 2011 at 1:23 am
i have one questionā¦ā¦and i am starting to ask this every web site i canā¦ā¦how much is too much carbon dioxide?ā¦ā¦
humans live in alaskaā¦.and marble bar (australia)ā¦ā¦so do not tell me about temperature ever againā¦..
if the problem is carbon dioxideā¦.what is the amount when we all dieā¦..
______________________
The best place to check is under “Green houses” as in growing plants.
“….while concentrations of 5000 ppm can pose health dangers to those working….”
(over 2000 ppm can be toxic to plants)
http://books.google.com/books?id=eEy9ftsCqtoC&pg=PA63&lpg=PA63&dq=CO2+green+house+tomatoes+5000+ppm&source=bl&ots=dr_QBcg7pJ&sig=vOCfjFGP-Ome4uFnQboBL6XeKYQ&hl=en&ei=F5G2TviwHKu_2QWfhPjMDQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CBsQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q&f=false
Or check under mines:
“….threshold in mine-safety regulations is 5000 ppm of carbon dioxide….”
http://intranet.wcastl.org/sites/wsmith/upload/4914610a2dea4.PDF
Oh btw, that’s an honest question; I’m not a believer or a denier, or even a sceptic, I’m just ignorant.
I think I figured it out!
Hansen living in NYC, I bet he doesn’t garden, therefore he can continue to live in denial (snicker)
Here in the south side of Houston I had a bumper crop of okra this year. Four seeds and a continuous supply of okra once the blooms started. Had to cut the okra every day or so. Slowed down now…cooler weather and shorter days. Probably time to cut down the plants and wait til next year.
Might try tomatoes next year.
My self-confidence is reaffirmed — those numbers are generally what my gut instincts say w/o looking at numbers here in the mid-Atlantic states. Coldest times were the late 70s w/the brutal winters. Warmest were the “El Nino” years of the 90s to early 00s w/the mild winters. Winters have generally cooled down since ~2002 & summers temps pretty steady. The only things truly remarkable during this period were the record wet years of 1996 & 2003, very dry yrs in 1988 & 2002 and near or record single-snowstorms in 1993,1996, 2003 & 2010.
The highest temp in near 8 yrs here (rural) has been 98F (several times) and the lowest -8F (next morning after the 36″ 2010 snowstorm).
mrrabbit says:
November 5, 2011 at 10:57 pm
That sounds so weird here in New England. In Keene NH (SW corner) shoppers lock their cars during zucchini season lest they come back and find a bag of zucchinis in the passenger seat.
Extra tomatoes (in years there are extra tomatoes) don’t make it further than the neighbors.
Maybe this article should be part of the EPA lawsuit.
http://junkscience.com/2011/11/03/judges-for-endangerment-litigation-identified-epa-to-win/
Jumping in on the Tomato bit: I did not grow tomatoes this year, In the three going on four years of my return to Ne Oregon, I have had one, yes one successful planting-that was an Heirloom cherry tomato. I bragged to my wife as to the Tomato growing in NE Oregon, Unlike Coos Bay,
where you have a easier time growing fungus, Well, our climate seems to favor cool nights,
something not good for tomato maturity. In the 80’d and 90’s we had hot weather 100F for days in a row- we in La Grande, haven’t had one 100F day since 2009. at least in the south part of
La Grande, the Airport is a different story. out in the flat, valley it is both warmer and colder.
We have a noticeable UHE here as due to the Hospital, two big(for the area) schools and
the University all have big physical plants. within .5 miles of the town center. That and a U.P.
Rail yard for more area that can hold heat, and the local reactivated sawmill…
So much for Prof. Curry who was celebrated a reborn skeptic but now has reemerged as a reborn
warmist.
I guess, the only positive trend, summers east of the Mississippi, are where the jet stream funnels the warm air up from the Gulf…….
It looks like the crystal balls the warmers have been using for predictions are about to freeze off the brass monkey.
But their attaching everything under the sun to a global issue needing global solutions indicates the purpose of their efforts.
Pssst, over here, hey buddy, wanna get rich?
Go long on long underwear futures . . . you’ll make a killing!
Re: green tomatoes
Thanks Anthony and mods for not snipping this veggie stuff. Iāve done all the green tomato things ā have the T-shirt. Locally was a good apple year and we got lots of free apples. Weāve been drying and freezing several types. And apples (some) keep well in the dark cold garage, often to February or March.
Didnāt mean to slight the actual post. This was a good one. Interesting comments also.
One other climate “proxy” that I’m familiar with is cloudiness.
According to one that spends a lot of time outside, they have increased their coverage. Ground-based astronomy has had a decreasing yield for the last 10 years, in my recollection.
Iām absolutely sure that cloud cover reduces the temperature during the day. At night, I never felt any warming when I had to pack my telescope and go home.
Temperatures in the US are certainly down over the last decade and particularly in the last few years. Temperatures were down about 1.5C from 2000 to 2009 but are back up about 0.5C since then. The trendline is -0.38C per decade.
http://img521.imageshack.us/img521/4138/usanom20002011.png
I’m not sure you can use the ENSO as the explanation because different parts of the US are affected in an opposite manner by the ENSO.
The US south and south-east, for example, is warmer and dryer during a La Nina while the rest of the country is usually colder and wetter during a La Nina. So, the affect of the ENSO depends on how strong the relative impact is regionally.
The ENSO actually has a negative correlation to the “US-as-a-whole” temperature, but will be strongly negative with the south/south-east and strongly positive with the north-west and upper mid-west.
The AMO has more of a direct one-for-one link to US weather.
Excellent piece Anthony. Thanks!
Lazy Teenager:
The long term trend of CONUS, for 100 years, is no warming nor cooling. There have been variations within that period, however, the trend is flat.
Is that long enough for you?
Cooling in the US explains what is happening to the US empire. Same thing happened to the Romans.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2057930/Did-Romans-leave-London-grim-British-weather.html
Earlier this year, scientists revealed how climate change could have been responsible for bringing down the Roman Empire. Researchers studied ancient tree growth rings to show links between climate change and major events in human history such as migrations, plagues and the rise and fall of empires. They discovered that periods of warm, wet weather coincided with period of prosperity, while droughts or varying conditions occurred at times of political upheaval such as the demise of the Roman Empire.
To match the environmental record with the historical one, researchers looked at more than 7,200 tree fossils from the past 2,500 years. The study, published in the journal Science, said: ‘Increased climate variability from AD 250 to 600 coincided with the demise of the Western Roman Empire and the turmoil of the Migration Period. ‘Distinct drying in the third century paralleled a period of serious crisis in the western Roman Empire marked by barbarian invasion, political turmoil and economic dislocation in several provinces in Gaul.’
I have been mentioning this for the past couple of years in the comments here. Too bad this story didn’t wait a week till October 2011 was in the database. That should happen in the next week or so.
While CONUS certainly isn’t the entire globe, it is a pretty darn good sample of 1/4 of it (Northern half of the Western Hemisphere). It is pretty hard to have “global” warming while roughly 1/4 of the globe is cooling at this rate.
ferd berple says: November 6, 2011 at 8:54 am
Interesting article, Ferd, but although they may have a very large collection of specimens, they are drawing unwarranted conclusions. What is needed is a comparison with skeletons from the same period in different parts of the Empire: North Africa, Palestine, Illiria, Gaul, Spain and Rome itself. The empire had a high volume of trade (Rome’s grain mostly came from North Africa, if I recall correctly) and the diseases noted in the article could have been the result of general life style choices or economic decline. I’ve always been pretty sure that climate played a role in there somewhere, but they are drawing conclusions about climate change with a really inadequate methodology. And keep in mind that they were gauging climate from tree-rings. I’m getting really jaded, I know, but the mention of tree-rings for anything these days causes me to flop over into deep suspicion mode.
But NCDC does allow a “most recent 12 months” plot. It can be kinda hidden, you might have to scroll down the pick list as it is the last item on the list. That will show temperatures from October through September of all years through this year. (October’s temperatures will be in the database in a few days and the most recent 12 month will change to an annual period of November to October (instead of January through December for the full ‘annual’)
Pat Michaels was said above to say: “NOAA is predicting an extreme La Nina low in 2012.”
However, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html
says: “Thus, at this time, a weak or moderate strength La NiƱa is most likely during the Northern Hemisphere winter.” They do mention the CFS.v2 forecast being for a strong La Nina
and the CFS forecast being for a moderate one. This does not sound like NOAA predicting an extreme La Nina.
Hence the name of our group “Minnesotans For Global Warming”
Question:
Isn’t there now more data & a longer period of observations showing cooling or lack of warming than there was used to turn the AWG alarms on in the 80s?
It’s easy for alarmists to look at their 1979 to 1998 20 year trend but they started their movement in the 80s with very little trend to base it on.
Yet they now claim an additonal 10, 15 or 20 years is needed to discount their claims that were borne from only a few years.
Hansen et al, just shut up and go away..
Bill Illis says:
November 6, 2011 at 8:21 am
“The US south and south-east, for example, is warmer and dryer during a La Nina while the rest of the country is usually colder and wetter during a La Nina. So, the affect of the ENSO depends on how strong the relative impact is regionally.”
Except for Florida. It has been down, down, down, down, 08, 09, 10, and now 11. Don’t trust the official records on this matter. I was there, contested the official records, and was called a denier in print.
In the age of computers, one would think that fine grained analysis of records would be available. I would like to see temperatures plotted against demographics. In addition, I would like to see temperatures plotted by smallish regions.
Nice article Anthony.
A couple years ago I wrote an article on three historic temperature stations along the Hudson
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2009/11/25/triplets-on-the-hudson-river/
What was most evident was distinct signs of the urban influence on temperatures and that Hansen seems to have missed out on the warm period immediately prior to the date of the establishment of Giss in 1880.
Even more intriguing is that in his work that surrounded MBH99 (the Hockey stick) Dr Mann makes a reference to the Little Ice Age not being evident in the States until the !800’s. If anyone has any information on this event in the US in that time scale I would be pleased to receive it for inclusion in my next article- ‘The Long slow Thaw?’
Thanks
Tonyb
Is there similar data available for Canada? If it also shows flat/negative trends it would go a long way to counter the criticisms that US data alone is not important because its a relatively small portion of the global land coverage
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/05/ncdc-data-shows-that-the-contiguous-usa-has-not-warmed-in-the-past-decade-summers-are-cooler-winters-are-getting-colder/#comment-789190
John F. Hultquist writes,
“I live in central Washington State near Ellensburg. Elevation is 2,240 feet. I paid $1.79 for a packet of seeds and 12 plants produced a dozen red tomatoes, another dozen colored in the kitchen. Thus, I recouped my out-of-pocket cost. I threw about 50-75 pounds of dark green ones into the compost.”
I live about 100 miles from Ellensburg.Was there just last weekend.
John and other tomato gardeners.You can keep those dark green tomatoes in the future by doing this.They will turn red very well.I have done this many times.
DO NOT WASH them! Just brush the dirt off them.You can wash them right before you use them.
Find a place that is DARK and DRY.Preferably between 60 and 68 degrees.Lay them out in a single layer (Not touching each other!!!) on a CLEAN shelf or floor.In a week or so they are changing from green to light red.Pick and use over time.
There are several ways to make growing tomatoes work in a cooling or cooler climate. A good way is making mini greenhouses in wide garden beds.Then the nights will stay warmer and block the cool winds (Tomatoes hate cold winds). The days will also be warmer as well.
One kind of mini greenhouse is to use Grey PVC electrical pipe.Found in electrical parts stores or ask the local irrigation store for them.Grey PVC is highly sun resistant and will last for years in the garden.Schedule 40 is a strong pipe and standard for electricians to use in the field.
The set up described in the below will work for any warm weather loving vegetables besides Tomatoes.Eggplants,Okra peppers and more.
To build in a wide garden bed of three to four feet wide,and between 10-30 feet long (depending on how many tomato plants you want to grow). Buy some one inch schedule 40 GREY PVC pipe.And some schedule 40 one inch sweeps with a few slip couplers.Also some grey PVC pipe cement.Assemble them to make them look like an exaggerated U shape.
By using the sweeps for the corners.You will be able to make a half circle in the air above the growing bed and to plant the long straight Grey PVC pipe ends.About a foot into the ground (firm the soil down around the pipe ends).
For greater stability in windy areas.use One inch tees and some pipe to make small feet that are buried in the ground.That will help hold up the hoops better.Another way is to bury 1 1/4 inch by FOURTEEN inches long pipe sleeve.Bury them in the ground with the tops about two inches above ground.Maybe even some concrete to hold the sleeves in the upright position. If it gets windy and you are thinking long term with your garden plans
Space the assembled U shapes around 3-5 feet apart in the growing bed.Allow for about 3-4 feet tall growing height for the tomato plants.
Then you get a big roll of fairly thick mill CLEAR plastic sheet.Cut out a length that goes beyond the ends of the growing beds by about 6 feet.
If the LENGTH of the growing bed exceeds 10 feet.Then you should cut sections in it.To allow gardeners to get in there and pick ripe produce.Also in case it gets too hot during the summer.You can open the ends AND in between the plastic sheets sections for additional air flow.And wide enough to drape over the installed PVC hoops and have excess of the sheets to spread over the sides of the growing beds.They can be held down by using long boards or soil to hold them down in place for the growing season.
Only the ends of the growing bed are to be left free.To be able to open or close them according to the weather conditions.The excess at the ends are for closing them in the cool evenings for the night.To help keep it a little warmer and to block the cool winds.Tomatoes HATE cool winds and will sulk if it is prolonged.
Also deep planting tomatoes up to their growing tips (do not damage those tiny white hairs in the stem.They become roots in the soil) in the spring will help tomatoes grow better in cooler weather.
For tomato growers who does NOT want to build the elaborate mini greenhouse set up as described in the above.Try using Milk jugs or similar clear containers instead.At least they help in the spring time of the year.But not much use after the plants are too big.
You can use cut one gallon milk jugs or similar contraption.To set over the new plants to block the cool spring winds and make it warmer and cozy inside.The cap can be taken off in the morning hours to allow excess heat escape during the day hours.
Mini greenhouses are better for cool season gardeners and for serious gardening with the significant intentions of augmenting the food supply.
I have done the deep tomato planting and used the jugs to great success.I have read over the years on the ways intrepid gardeners have dealt with the cool weather.Mini greenhouse are one of the methods used by the more serious gardeners.They WORK!
This link below will give you an idea what I am talking about.But never would advocate bending the white PVC pipe into an U shape.It is under tension and can break causing serious injury.Plus they become brittle in the sun and break.You will have to store them out of the sun.
If you prefer using the method in the below link and use the white PVC pipe.I suggest that you use a pair of 45 degree elbows for each corner ( use blue 721 pipe cement ). This will eliminate the built in tension and increase safety.
Grey Schedule 40 PVC pipe is strong,sun resistant and safe to use with the 90 degree sweeps.They will last for years in the garden and can be left in place. They will take a little longer to build.But the initial investment should justify the years of use in the garden.
It works best if you use the WIDE bed method.I personally make my bed 3 1/2 feet wide and 20 feet long.I use 2″ x 6 ” UNTREATED Douglas Fir wood to make the permanent bed outlines.They stick up about 2″- 3″ out of the ground.NEVER walk in the growing beds!
The paths in between the beds depends on the gardeners preference.I make mine about 2 feet wide.Minimizing the paths makes for more growing area to garden it and to concentrate the use of compost and or fertilizers.
http://gardenerscott.blogspot.com/2011/03/extending-your-growing-season-with-mini.html
I hope this will help your gardening success in the future.
re update:
The main reason for the changes were the incorporation of an additional layer of USHCN adjustments by Karl et al overlaying the time-of-observation adjustments already incorporated into Hansen et al 1999ā¦
In fairness, most of this is the fault of NCDCās Karl, Menne, and Peterson, who have applied new adjustments in the form of USHCN2 (for US data) and GHCN3 (to global data). These adjustments are the primary source of this revisionism.
So we have adjustments on top of adjustments (on top of adjustments). Doesn’t that pretty well destroy any useful information?
ferd berple says:
November 6, 2011 at 8:54 am
āDistinct drying in the third century paralleled a period of serious crisis in the western Roman Empire marked by barbarian invasion, political turmoil and economic dislocation in several provinces in Gaul.ā
Nah. ‘Twoz Asterix wot dun it (quel fit Ƨa).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asterix
Simple data analyses of the past 10 to 15 yrs are a serious and publically visible problem for any advocate (such as the IPCC) of significant or alarming AGW by CO2 from fossil fuels.
The analysis certainly does not weaken the skeptical case wrt alarming/significant AGW by CO2 from fossil fuels. But I do not think it strengthens the skeptical position very much, if at all. Although I am pleased nature is providing some evidence of its natural power to control the climate dynamic without the aid the resident sentient beings. : )
For me the most effective skeptical position is that the resources devoted to research has not been balanced enough for skeptical positions to be as fully explored as the position of alarming or significant AGW by CO2 from fossil fuels.
John
Hi Anthony and fellow gardening commenters, Here in northern Oregon, 48 miles from the coast in what might be described as the northern Willamette valley, we have been experienceing a shorter cooler growing season as evidenced by our fruit tree production. We make a living off of fruit production, peaches pears apples plums and have found that in apples we are having to go to earlier ripening varieties as the season is shortening enough that the late ripening varieties run out of time. Our peach harvest this year was at least three weeks late and we were not pleased with the quality. Some of the plums and all the apricots did not set due to late frosts in the spring. We see the facts and global warming is a lie.
I can’t and don’t even try tomatoes in La Nina years…..
It’s as simple as that………
__________________________________________________________________________
Ric Werme says:
November 6, 2011 at 7:34 am
mrrabbit says:
November 5, 2011 at 10:57 pm
Last 4 straight years here in the SF Bay area summers have been very cool. At best a few days above 100 F, when normally there would be easily a dozen.
Tomatoes have been a pain in the ass each yearā¦whereas in the 80s and 90s the ease of growing tomatoes was right up there with zucchini.
That sounds so weird here in New England. In Keene NH (SW corner) shoppers lock their cars during zucchini season lest they come back and find a bag of zucchinis in the passenger seat.
Extra tomatoes (in years there are extra tomatoes) donāt make it further than the neighbors.
__________________________________________________________________________
Same here…even during this “cool” weather zucchinis are super easy to grow. Gave ’em away to neighbors, far relatives, bike shops, anything that walked on two legs that owned a horizontal surface. Made several dozen loaves of Zucchini-Walnut-Chocolate Chip bread of which 3 are now frozen in the freezer.
Only gave one tomato away to a neighbor…in exchange for an onion. My neighbors called it quits on tomatoes.
=8-)
“In searching for a new enemy to unite us, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like would fit the bill. All these dangers are caused by human intervention, and it is only through changed attitudes and behavior that they can be overcome. The real enemy then, is humanity itself.”
– Club of Rome, 1981
ferd berple says:
November 6, 2011 at 8:54 am
“Cooling in the US explains what is happening to the US empire. Same thing happened to the Romans.”
Are you sure it’s not the shift of production from USA/EU to China?
“Global Warming” has always been something of a misnomer. “Global Weirding” might be a more appropriate identification – alterations from normal climate patterns, including larger hurricanes, colder winters, or a foot of snow before Halloween are more important to the phenomenon than temperature trends.
Alexander says:
“This year and last are La Nina years. Should we excuse the lower temperatures just because of that?
El NiƱo and La NiƱa are part of the data. How can we excuse them?”
——–
I think what was meant is that recent warming events are attributed to El NiƱo rather than CO2. These ENSO events show what is really controlling the temperatures both up and down. The notion of “excusing them” I think refers to the attempt to hold things constant to determine what influence CO2 is having by itself. Which appears to be very little, if such an exercise is even possible. More simply, if global warming is undectectable due to ENSO, then perhaps man-made global warming is not a serious problem.
Uh… 10 yrs on a small subset of the planet’s surface doesn’t tell you much about AGW. Santer et al. argue that āOur results show that temperature records of at least 17 years in length are required for identifying human effects on global-mean tropospheric temperature.ā
Santer, B. D., et al. (2011), āSeparating Signal and Noise in Atmospheric Temperature Changes: The Importance of Timescale,ā J. Geophys. Res., doi:10.1029/2011JD016263, in press.
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/pip/2011JD016263.shtml
You should note for completeness that the methods GISS used changed between 1999 and 2010.
so you cannot attribute it soley to the changes in UshcnV2.
Comparing French wine grapes over a few centuries won’t work. Many decades ago a blight almost killed the French wine industry, which was saved only by grafting their strains onto good North American root stock. So you’d be comparing apples with grafted apples. Dubious.
Of course, we could call in an expert to make “adjustments”. Might Mr. Hansen be available? He may know squat about wine grapes, but he shore do know his adjustments.
As to tomato suggestions, I simply set the tall cages over the plants and cover with large clear or opaque garbage sacks. I poke a few holes for ventilation and secure with clothespins. Works very well as “mini” greenhouses.
I used to test seeds for hardiness for Garden City Seeds (bought by Irish Eyes) and for Renee Shepherd on my farm in NNNW Montana, growing season theoretically 39 days, but that was a generous figure measured at the USFS station in a warmer spot below us. Siberia was the very best of the tomatoes, a compact dwarf determinate with 2- to 3-oz, pink–tinged red tomatoes. I haven’t checked recently to see whether the seeds commercially available are still true to the original genetics, but Irish Eyes does carry the variety, as well as most of the others that passed the trials.
“REPLY: Actually that comment wasnāt from the real Burt Rutan, it was from some faker in the UK. Email and IP didnāt match, so I deleted it. Iām honored that Burt follows WUWT, and emails me tips. ā Anthony”
“Some faker?!!!” Excuse me! It was me, and it was just a bit of ironic humour, that’s all. No disrespect or deceit intended.
[Reply: Please don’t post under someone else’s name. ~dbs, mod.]
talking about tomatoes, lots of statictics for UsA
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1210
A possibility…
If you look at the long term graphs, it shows that it has warmed since 1895 by 0.12 degrees per decade. Then we see that the data has been “adjusted” to make 1934 look cooler and recent temperatures look warmer. Sooo, how do we know that it has really warmed since 1895? In fact, the long term graphs upward if irregular trend may be partially or completely artificial. It very well could be that the trend has been flat since 1895, or so slightly warming as to be irrelevant. And if US temperatures have been going down for 10-15 years, and we know that foreign temperatures are far less reliable that US temperatures and thus subject to more “adjustments”, foreign temperatures could be going down even more.
Prediction, in 10 years, it will have gotten too cold to ignore, no matter what they do with the temperature records, since there is a very good chance we are going into a mini ice age (probably slightly milder than the last little ice age but not much). What will this do to, say, heating fuel prices and availability, growing seasons, major crop disasters from later spring rains and frosts and earlier falls, more frequent La Nina events and thus more drought, etc.? Meanwhile, rather than admit that AGW was false, the spin will be that it is somehow CO2’s fault (already starting), so governments will react to the panic and blame on them by taking actions the exact opposite of what is needed, actions that will harm the economy even more and make the specific problems worse. This will, of course, be those actions that give the government even more control, result, corruption, mismanagement, etc, the problems will get even worse. The government may also crack down on ‘dissent’ in that climate of unrest using their new powers. Less ‘dissent’ means they can get away with even more corruption, and they will.
The current predicted mini ice age will probably be mild and short(ish), and we could ride it out. However, with the government too heavily invested in AGW to give it up or to prepare for cooling, instead we may very well go into the second dark ages.
Dave Springer says:
November 6, 2011 at 5:39 am
richard verney says:
November 6, 2011 at 4:44 am
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Dave
I am one of those who considers that an increase of 2 to 4 degC would overall be extremely beneficial. i consider that the CAGW crowd have got it very wrong when they see warming as a harbinger of doom. There are few places on Earth where humans could live today, if it were not for our ability to manipulate the environment. I have little doubt that today’s temperature is less than ideal for humans and as general rule biodiversity increases with temperature. Warm is good, cold is bad. However, I can foresee that some local ecosystems could be adversely affected by such a temperature increase.
Notwithstanding their alleged “adjustments” (http://www.livescience.com/16887-elements-copernicus.html) being reasonable they sure do smell like and have the look of statistical fraud.
It’s weird that Hansen would revise his statements without commenting that the underlying graphs have been mannipulated. Or maybe not strange at all due to Hansen’s own arctic eureka of statistical games with data fabrication out of the nothingness of 1,200kilometers for one temperature station.
Gotta love it that the basic data observations can’t even be trusted due to the mannipulations. I’ve never heard of any other science being this shoddy. I though BEST would have attempted to avoid this but if BEST is mirroring these changes then whom ever is perpetrating this statistical mannipulations of the observational data has bested Muller. Pun intended.
These climate scientists and Muller need to heed the wisdom of Rutherford:
āIf your experiment needs statistics, you ought to have done a better experiment.ā ā Ernest Rutherford
The CERN OPERA people are learning this lesson from Rutherford it seems as their first experimental analysis relied too heavily upon statistics. They’ve since retooled and have started the second experiment so that the neutrino events are distinct in time to clarify the results and not need a layer of statistical analysis at all.
This is a tricky one. we had sherpas saying it was getting warmer, now we have tomato growers saying it’s getting cooler.
The NCDC tool is quite useful. It is this shows that the Texas summer this year has been the “hottest” on record.
However closer analysis shows temperatures never reached the levels of 1980. What pushed the average up was the fact that the heatwave lasted a couple of weeks longer. This is really quite an important distinction.
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2011/10/17/texas-summer-2011how-hot-was-it-really/
Those of us using this site have known the facts of this article for years. However, every leftists pushing the opposite better get down on their knees NOW and start praying to their silly Gods of AGW that Herman Cain or Rick Perry never makes it to the White House because Perry says he’s coming with a wrecking ball to corrupt Washington pushing this idiocy with the likes of that 70 year old codger Mann and his minions – or no nonsense Cain taking no prisoners along the way. ALL the green crap and the funding of that green crap where ever it is ongoing in the US funded by government is – DOA by either Cain or Perry! Who said there was no GOD?
Here’s a story in today’s Seattle Times that doesn’t mesh with this thread’s account of declining temperatures in the PNW. Is it getting warmer on the ridges? Or is the spread of rust mostly to blame, not warmer temperatures? If someone knows, they should go to this story and contribute to the comments (90 strong at the moment), and linking back to this thread.
“And they wonder why we donāt trust the surface temperature data. In fairness, most of this is the fault of NCDCās Karl, Menne, and Peterson, who have applied new adjustments in the form of USHCN2 (for US data) and GHCN3 (to global data). These adjustments are the primary source of this revisionism. As Steve McIntyre often says: āYou have to watch the pea under the thimble with these guysā.”
I don’t think they care one bit if people trust the surface temp data or not. We have been around this block a dozen times or more. I have read every scrap of the science literature I could find about these adjustments. I understand like most of you what they are doing. I still don’t understand how they can call it science? Over the past couple of years I have written dozens of essays. published on my blog, looking at this through the lens of Popperian Philosophy. The bulk of these adjustments are still not science and never were. I strongly suspect never will be either.
Several points……
1— Al Gore and friends should be happy campers as they have single handedly stopped global warming as evidenced by the resulting long cooling phase. Gore, himself, believes the threat is over..As proof, he purchased and is living in a beachfront home in California. So much for the ocean rising.. There must be another Nobel Prize waiting for him in the wings.
2— Muller, basing his AGW flip-flop using the same creative climate data that was presented in the first place is very similar to the examiners that gave AIG, Enron, and a slew of other financial houses a clean bill of health based on each organization’s own skewed records. That turned out well, as we all know.
Can someone make a blinkie of those last two graph??
Be a lot easier to compare.
No they aren’t, because they can’t cause widespread melting and sea-level rise, which is the main threat from CAWG.
Dave Summers says:
November 5, 2011 at 6:19 pm
“I believe that you will find, as I did when I looked, that the recent rise in temperatures along the Eastern Seaboard, including the Northeast came after a decline in their average temperatures from 1950 to 1965 approximately. (See posts on the topic at Bit Tooth Energy and on one of the effects of that drop on the black capped chickadee .”
Great analysis you did Dave. And I say that as a birder (for almost 50 years). However, while the weather related trend in BC Chickadees does make complete and predictable sense, I would emphasize that Christmas Bird Count data is rather mushy because there are so many variables in how they are conducted from year to year. Moreover, the winter distribution and survival of birds like them has been influenced by the increasing number of bird feeders. Nonetheless, even with those problems that data is at least as reliable as most of the adjusted junk data we get from the AGW Team – and probably more reliable than any pre-1900 temperature data.
Good that you pointed out how many bird species are doing fine or much better than fine. The eco-crisis industry never seems to mention that, for obvious reasons.
On the point about Ripening tomatoes. Up until about two years ago we grew so many tomatoes we were eating Italian and tomato soups for months. since then most have been green. Also the tomatoes have suffered from tomato blight. Still on the bright side we have mountains of green tomato chutney.
steven mosher says:
November 6, 2011 at 11:28 am
“You should note for completeness that the methods GISS used changed between 1999 and 2010.”
Funny. So that junk adjusted data is even worse than we thought. Can’t even compare junk to junk now? And I’m sure they changed their methods simply to ensure their accuracy. LOL.
I think the tomato survival index would be more valuable than GISS data.
Alternatively you can just ask folks how the tomatoes in the garden have worked outā¦ š
I live in the UK, and Iāve now officially given up on tomatoes after wasting my time those past 4 summers. š
Garethman replies:
As someone who practises self sufficiency can I also add Sweetcorn, French beans Peaches to the crops that I can no longer grow in Wales since the deterioration in our summer climate. Many people believe in substantial global warming. My crops disagree and have voted with their feet. This year I went back to the more traditional crops of cabbage, potatoes, parsnips and other roots and had a good crop. Donāt deny the deteriorating climatic conditions, adapt and you wont go far wrong.
Any trend can be reversed with enough adjustments. Publish a few papers on new methods and voila! A cooling trend becomes a warming trend.
Mark my words. GISS isn’t going to get any rest until they’ve figured this one out.
Our grandchildren won’t know what tomatoes are.
“Tomatoes of our Grandchildren.”
I’d like to add my two seeds to the garden warming index. In New Mexico we had a very late cold spell that froze most of the water pipes where I live. To top that off, Texas lost electrical power and the natural gas dropped off too. The late spring meant the ground was too cold to germinate the seeds and the air was too cold to spur the tomato plants. Since 5 years ago I had a bumper crop of tomatoes, the climate has changed. At my elevation this cooler winter and spring is bad for farming outdoors. I would be happy volunteer to be a tomato watcher next year by having one in the ground outside and one in the green house inside. I’ll try to select two identical plants and monitor growth by width and height until fall.
The warmists have been using aerosols as an excuse for the flattening of temperature trends over the last ten years. Personally I don’t think they could find their aerosol with both hands but that’s another issue. If instead, you’re a suspicious sod like me, then you might conclude that a large chunk of the century trend was induced by over enthusiastic ‘adjustments’ to the record. Unless you keep making additional adjustments this trend will disappear, just as it has done.
I think we are better off trusting the model predictions. If we let ourselves get distracted by these unreliable real world measurements we may get ourselves become complacent.
Hexe Froschbein says:
November 5, 2011 at 6:10 pm
Kudos to Hexe. Never in the history of the blogosphere has a thread been so way laid.
Since we are on the subject of local tempertures..I’m trying to find DAILY temp data for Hutchinson MN, Chaska MN, and or Chanhassan MN. Where do I find them?
Can I get them back to 1950 or 1940? The reason, I have a data set that goes back to 1820 (Fort Snelling, MN) I’d like to use the Hutch, Chan or Chaska as the 1950 on, as I know it will represent the “real” regional temps, SANS the UHI of the Mpls, St. Paul Int. Airport. (Please see http://www.surfacestations.org, and don’t LAUGH TOO HARD at where the OFFICAL Temp for Mpls has been coming from since WWII onward!)
Any clues WUWT folks?
Max
PS: You can use the THREESPOT, and thats located AT AOL. (Can you figure the Email from that?)
Obviously there are some multi-decade issues from the data. Why not overlay the AMO on this data so we can extend the discussion in meaningful ways?
richard verney says:
November 6, 2011 at 11:54 am
. However, I can foresee that some local ecosystems could be adversely affected by such a temperature increase.
========================================
Richard, they would just move…..that’s where they came from in the first place
Does this mean that the initial temperature rise was Urban Heat Island effect and the removal of temperature measurement stations in cool places?
Now that all this is in place there will be no more temperature rises?
[snip. You know why. ~dbs, mod.]
I did well with chilis here in Ottaw, 500 miles Southh of Londoin UK, but the tomatoes were woeful.
That the north east is warming is fact. I live in NB, Canada and the winters are shorter, warmer, and start later. This is because of a warmer northern Atlantic Ocean. I’m in favour of warmer temperatures. It’s unfortunate that the rest of the planet has to cool for climate scientists to admit that they were wrong. Actually, they’re still not all admitting it. It’s a shame and an eye opener for anyone that was still on the fence.
BTW, are we not still in an ice age? We just happen to be in an interglacial period. Imagining if the ice age was ending. What would the climate scientists say? More likely though is that the interglacial will end eventually and go back to the ice age.
Cool Climate Tomato Growers,
I confess. I am tomato snob. There are few gastronomic delights as satisfying as a vine ripened tomato, picked sun warm from the vine and eaten immediately, with essential slurps to capture the gushes of tomato juice before it evades capture! I grew up on farm in on Green Lake, Wisconsin, where we raised many fruits and vegetables for a family run ‘road side stand’. In the ’60s and 70s, we successfully grew large volumes of tomatoes there.
Here’s a thought that occurred to me, as I read the ‘tomato posts’ above:
Tomatoes love ‘ground’ heat; i.e. warmer soil, especially on cool nights. Using an electric or gas clothes dryer to dry our washed clothes produces waste heat that is usually exhausted outside. Hmmmmm….Why not ‘marry up’ these 2 projects and utilize that waste heat?
Suggest burying a PVC pipe (same size as dryer duct) under your tomato bed… and connect it to the dryer exhaust duct on the outside of the house with a piece of flex ducting. Drying your clothes in the evening would add heat to the ground, when it is needed. If the weather is sufficiently warm for the tomato plants, just disconnect the duct. If a gas dryer is used, the added CO2 in the exhaust might be put to good use inside a green house or similar row cover! Probably ought to drill some drain holes in the bottom of the PVC tube (or use a PVC drain tile?!) to allow the condensing moisture from the dryer exhaust to drain into the soil.
At all times, be sure to use a generous layer of dry ground cover, like wheat or oats straw, under the tomato plants, to prevent direct contact of the plant leaves and fruit with the soil. This will reduce the black spot fungus attacks on the fruit.
Pollination can be an issue as well. I have on occasion used a q-tip swab to gently transfer pollen between plants and individual flowers, when the plants produced sufficient flowers but were not setting fruit!
Yeah – I know…. Amazing, what a guy will do to get a real ripe tomato, right? };>)
Mosher: āYou should note for completeness that the methods GISS used changed between 1999 and 2010.ā
Yeah. They tell even more obvious lies.
It still isn’t warmer than 1934 and if UHI was deducted it would probably be 1F colder than 1934 now.
How can you tell a con artist is lying to you? They claim to know what the Global Average Temperature is.
Roger Knights says:
November 6, 2011 at 12:27 pm
Quoting from the Seattle Times:
āWhitebark pines may be among the earliest victims of a warming climate in the Northwest . . .ā
The first map in this post shows the PNW cooling at the rate of minus 2.22 F. degrees per decade. So something isnāt syncing here. The newspaper article and the research discussed therein claims warmer mountain temperatures. I did not notice the proof. Maybe in addition to an UHI effect we also have āmountain ridgeā (MR) effect caused by too many hikers and their ultralight liquid fuel stoves.
Seriously, where is the temperature data? What are the alternative possibilities for the expansion of the beetleās range. Could the older trees be larger and intercepting more sunlight and thus warming more during the day and staying warmer at night? Could older trees be less able to withstand the beetle? Could the beetle be evolving to better attack this tree and/or be more active at cooler temperatures.
One might guess that the researchers will need far more money to get to the bottom (or top) of this.
If the US has not warmed significantly then what does it mean for US based claims of some affect due to climate change. If the local temperatures have not been climbing then can climate change be claimed as a cause?
E.g. we were in Glacier National park in the summer and of course the claim is the glaciers are melting due to climate change, but I was wondering what the local stations were saying, already knowing that the US itself has not been undergoing much change.
With regard to tomato growing in hot and cold areas, there are tomato web sites which sell specific varieties which set at high temperatures and varieties which grow in cooler areas. Shaking the tomato plants once or twice a day makes a dramatic difference to the set of fruit. If gardeners want to automate the shaking, use an aquarium air pump and a string attached to the lines the plants are growing on.
dufas says:
November 6, 2011 at 12:32 pm
Several pointsā¦ā¦
1ā Al Gore and friends should be happy campers as they have single handedly stopped global warming as evidenced by the resulting long cooling phase. Gore, himself, believes the threat is over..As proof, he purchased and is living in a beachfront home in California. So much for the ocean rising.. There must be another Nobel Prize waiting for him in the wings.
Well, to be correct, I believe it isn’t “beach front” property, it is property with a beach or ocean view – Beach/Ocean View property.
Evidentially, what Gore wants is to be able to watch as his neighbors suffer as their property is washed away by the rising sea.
Worse than hypocritical, it’s sadly pathetic.
If the US is a good proxy for global temperatures then why would 1934 be warmer than 1998? Globally, 1998 is significantly warmer than 1994. In which case later adjustments (Karl et al) have improved the US record – IF the US is a good proxy for global temperatures.
If the US is NOT a good proxy for global temperatures, then the cooling of the last decade or so in US temps should not be considered a good proxy for global trends. Consequently, attaching recent quotes about global temperatures to an analysis of US temperatures, as in the article above, would be inappropriate.
My point is, the two sections of the above article imply a contradiction.
Anthony, could you clarify: are we to conclude the US record is a good proxy for global at decadal time scales or not? Or have I missed the point?
DirkH says:
November 6, 2011 at 11:09 am
Are you sure itās not the shift of production from USA/EU to China?
Could well be. We used to export a lot of wheat to China. Now they are growing their own. We already import oranges from China. What next – tomatoes?
Bruce. Nobody knows what the global average temperature is. Further, it has noting to do with the complete facts in this case.
between 1999 and 2010 three things change for Gisstemp
1. The dataset
2. the stations used
3. The method
Those facts need a proper audit before one can conclusively determine the reason for the change. Remember, be skeptical of evrything. not just the things you dislike
Tomato commenters, I am quite surprised you do not get the ‘greenhouse effect’ after millions of comments about it.
Build greenhouses for your tomatoes.
: )
John
climatebeagle says:
November 6, 2011 at 3:17 pm
… the claim is the glaciers are melting due to climate change…
In my post yesterday at 7:25 pm I mentioned the recent book by John Kehr. Another. interesting thing he notes is that the oldest glaciers on earth – not the ice caps – in northern Greenland are only 8,000 years old – the most recent ones – e.g tropical in Peru are 1 – 1.5k years old. We are in a long term cooling trend and need to get used to it – and prepared for worse to come…
I’ve been reading about this cooling for some time now. Yet, whenever I hear ‘skeptics’ address the AGW crowd, they immediately concede that they are SURE that global warming is happening, they just don’t agree that the evidence proves it’s man-made…yet here it is again…cooling! What gives?
People believe what they are educated to believe.
Our children and grandchildren are being educated to believe that modern society is destroying…..modern society.
Practically every weekend is an uneducate weekend now, as I am repeatedly told that driving is unhealthy, and eating burgers is bad for me. Well, they may well be bad for me…but only if I ate only burgers. Nothing like having experts in diet and lifestyle in your family, even if they are 6 years old. What are they going to be like at 16 ?
That is the problem “we” are having to face, the indoctrination into the gaia philosophy of the children.
I remember the thread on Climate Audit concerning the TOB Adjustments concerning the early part of the 20th Century. I think it was 2004 or 2005. If memory serves me correctly, someone noticed that the 1930s “cooled”, while the 1990s warmed. Of course, this served the Alarmists agenda, and as one person asked, “Why do all of these adjustments always result in warming?”
It was during this period that it occurred to me that weather is what we experience and climate is nothing more than a human construct. Statistics drive so much of the climate science. And, like economics, climate science is now divided into 2 warming camps – The Alarmists and The Skeptics. The data can be manipulated to show trends to whatever the Alarmists wish it to go. And if the “weather” does not cooperate? Well, the goalposts can be moved. In 2005, it was all about Tropical Storms. When the tropical cyclones refused to co-operate, the focus turned to polar ice growth (or lack thereof). When that fails the focus turns to “extreme” weather. If the globe actually refuses to warm, the narrative changes to Climate Change; and now we hear the phrase Climate Destruction.
@Barry,
I don’t know if the US would serve as good proxy for anything. However, the US makes up a significant portion of global reporting stations. If you look at reporting station trends of the last 50 years, a large number of reporting stations globally have closed down especially in the former USSR, as well as Africa). The US accounts for only 6% of the world’s surface area, but accounts for over 20% of the reporting stations. Grid-cell extrapolation (even when there are no reporting stations to fill them), homogenity adjustments, TOB adjustments, etc… can not even come close to give us a consistently accurate account of global temp trends – especially with the kind of precision that folks at GISS, NOAA, and Hadley brag about.
The data here is for the contiguous US only, not the world.
mosher, if GISS said 1934 was .6C warmer than 1998 in 1999 and said 1934 was .4C cooler than 1998 in 2011 than the only man-made warming is the adjustments.
One of the things that struck me when looking at the maps is the clear line of demarcation between the regions with summer cooling trends and the regions with summer warming trends. The CONUS can be divided roughly in half diagonally from northeast to southwest with those regions to the north and west all experiencing cooling and those to the south and east all experiencing warming. Why?
I have only a layman’s knowledge of weather systems. However, it would appear that the cooling regions are those most affected by systems originating in the northerly Pacific that sweep down the Canadian coast from Alaska and hit the northwest region of the CONUS. As the systems move south and east the temperatures appear to moderate. The warming regions appear to be those most affected by weather systems originating in the equatorial Pacific and push across Mexico into Texas. As these systems move north and east the temperature seems to moderate.
If the above analysis is correct (a big if), what does it say about temperature trends in the Pacific? Though a 10-year trend is relatively short, is it long enough to begin formulating a theory (albeit preliminary) of possible longer term climate trends?
As for tomatoes — I live in Los Angeles (within the city limits) and I can attest that beautiful, sunny Southern California is not quite as sunny any more. My cherry tomatoes did fairly well with a continuous crop all summer until the past few days when it has turn wet and very cold. The Romas did moderately well with about a dozen per plant, but the Beefsteaks did miserably yielding less than a half dozen per plant.
rc says:
November 6, 2011 at 5:33 pm
Iāve been reading about this cooling for some time now. Yet, whenever I hear āskepticsā address the AGW crowd, they immediately concede that they are SURE that global warming is happening, they just donāt agree that the evidence proves itās man-madeā¦yet here it is againā¦cooling! What gives?
_________________________________________
Most of us believe there are natural cycles and not a straight line shooting into the sky Ć la Al Gore.
The long term Milankovitch cycles. Ice Ages have occurred at regular intervals, of approximately 100,000 years each. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379107002715
http://www.heliogenic.net/category/milankovitch-cycles/
“…distinct periodicities of 11, 22, 90, and 200 years, believed to be associated with the Schwabe, Hale, Gleissberg, and Suess solar cycles….” a 400yr period and an 84 period. http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-0095-00/fs-0095-00.pdf
NASA: “…The researchers found some clear links between the sun’s activity and climate variations. The Nile water levels and aurora records had two somewhat regularly occurring variations in common – one with a period of about 88 years and the second with a period of about 200 years….” http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/features.cfm?feature=1319
And then there are the ocean cycles of about 60 years.
Therefore a complex sine wave is expected. So yes you get 30 years warming and then 30 years cooling on top of a much longer term warming signal 200yr? 400 yrs?
The “400 yr cycles” The Little Ice Age started in about 1350 and ended around 1850. “Medieval Warm Period,” which existed from approximately A.D. 1000 to A.D. 1350. http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/ice_ages.html (Very good overall explanation)
So we are in an inter glacial (about plus 15C) and warming up from the little ice age and have the 60 yr ocean swings. So we are warm – interglacial, warm – upside of 400yr cycle, cool – down side of ocean cycle.
Expect about 30 years of cool and if we are darn lucky we will continue with the 400 yr warm cycle and the present interglacial and not slide into the next glaciation.
The Eemian Interglacial Period lasted 20,000yrs
From:
http://duluthshippingnews.com/2011/11/03/adriaticborg-brings-more-wind-turbine-parts/
“The Adriaticborg arrived on November 2, 2011 to discharge wind turbine parts loaded in Aarhus, Denmark. She brought 15 hubs, 3 power units and one 20 foot container; the cargo was loaded in Aarhus, Denmark for Siemens. Wind turbine technology keeps advancing. These hubs are bigger than earlier ones and they have to be plugged in at almost all times so bearings inside do not go flat during transit. As soon as the cranes dropped each hub at Lake Superior Warehousing this morning, they were plugged into an electrical connection prepared by the warehouse. The power slowly moves the inside around, keeping the bearings smooth. Earlier nacelles came here in August with radiators to cool off a new type of motor inside. Odd; all this stuff requires electricity; wind mills arenāt what they used to be!”
=========
When, will the insanity stop ?
“the question about the last 10 years is still valid. āAerosol maskingā has been the reason given by the Team. Blame China.”
No, China can’t be blamed for causing no warming over the last 10 years by aerosol masking. Since 2005 China has had a major effort to install state-of-the-art desulphurisation in its coal-fired plants installing more such units than the rest of the world combined. At the end of 2008, 66% of the Chinaās coal-fired power plant capacity is equiped with flue gas desulphurisation. Today 75% of all desulphurisation systems are being installed in China. China’s SO2 emissions have declined 14.5% from 2006 to 2009 according to the 2009 report on the state of the environment in China as shown here:
http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/FOS%20Essay/China_SO2_Soot.jpg
Ken Gregory says:
November 6, 2011 at 8:44 pm
There is some accuracy in this, but even the NYT reported that many of the plants do not operate the scrubbers, but recieve credits for installing them. They are expensive to operate. However the places of particulate pollution do not match the places of cooling, as in the US, where we have cleaned up our emissions for longer then the recent sesation of warming.
steven mosher says:
November 6, 2011 at 4:16 pm
“Bruce. Nobody knows what the global average temperature is. Further, it has noting to do with the complete facts in this case.
between 1999 and 2010 three things change for Gisstemp
1. The dataset
2. the stations used
3. The method
Those facts need a proper audit before one can conclusively determine the reason for the change. Remember, be skeptical of evrything. not just the things you dislike”
Mosher, all the changes only increase the error bars, however some things are consistent. One of these things is human nature. Before CAGW “post normal” science, which destroys real science, 1934 was easily the record US warmth. Post, “post normal science” and the political agenda, the US record changed radically. This and one hundred other examples of the corruption of climate science, of which you are very aware, convince a rational person to trust the early numbers far more the the adjustments. Do you not agree?; or must I list hundreds of examples of bad climate science.
@Alexander:
Why ignore El Nino years? Well, the reasons vary. At core, one ought not to ignore them. All the data, all the time. BUT, when saying “foo was the warmest”, you need to note if it was a one year spike, or a general trend. Spiking is not attributable to CO2… Also, some folks will say “the trend is down even if you ignore the El Nino year”. That is a way of emphasizing that you are NOT cherry picking a start date on a high peak… Sometimes ignoring the hot peak is PRO AGW… and done to ‘give them all benefit possible’ and still show things are dropping.
Andres Valencia says: November 6, 2011 at 8:20 am
One other climate āproxyā that Iām familiar with is cloudiness.
According to one that spends a lot of time outside, they have increased their coverage. Ground-based astronomy has had a decreasing yield for the last
Interesting point… We have astronomical observatories with long records of the ‘seeing’ and temperatures at the time. It ought to make a fairly accessible way to measure cloud changes over time…
rc says: November 6, 2011 at 5:33 pm
Iāve been reading about this cooling for some time now. Yet, whenever I hear āskepticsā address the AGW crowd, they immediately concede that they are SURE that global warming is happening, they just donāt agree that the evidence proves itās man-madeā¦yet here it is againā¦cooling! What gives?
Different sceptics. Different audiences. Some folks ARE sure warming has happened. I’m sure it has not. I do not say ‘we know warming is happening’. Sometimes I WILL say that warming has happened on some time scales but typically only before making the point that you get different trends depending on what scope of time you use. Falling for 8000 years. Falling for 1000 years. Rising for 200 years. Rising for 20 years. Falling for 10 years. Complex wave shapes are like that. Overall, we’re headed into an ice age glacial. No Doubt About It. We’re also having a rebound upward from, the bottom of the Little Ice Age in about 1800. Many folks when they say ‘we are warming’ are talking about that rise from the depths of the L.I.A. But go back to the Medieval Optimum, and we’re on a net cooling trend…
So depending on who you pick to listen too, and WHEN they are using as their trend period, you can get lots of opinions about ‘warming’ vs ‘cooling’… AND they can ALL be right! But none of it means CO2 does a darned thing, or that we’re warming now…
WillieB says: November 6, 2011 at 7:01 pm
One of the things that struck me when looking at the maps is the clear line of demarcation between the regions with summer cooling trends and the regions with summer warming trends. The CONUS can be divided roughly in half diagonally from northeast to southwest with those regions to the north and west all experiencing cooling and those to the south and east all experiencing warming. Why?
PDO controls the North West. AMO the South East. AMO flips a few years after PDO flips. PDO flipped cold a ways back. Expect to see AMO go cold … well, about now, and the Atlantic States data to follow suit. Oh, and Europe goes all ‘meat locker’ on us in the next year or two also… And I don’t even want to think about what’s going to happen to folks in South America this coming winter with a cold hearted Pacific off their cost and volcanoes acting up…
But basically it’s when the different bits of the ocean catch up with a new cyclical trend.
I’m an avid gardener in Colorado. I normally get piles of zucchini and yellow squash, but this year it was a pittance. The only thing that grew well was cool season stuff – greens, peas and root vegetables. I got lots of turnips and carrots. *sigh*
Prediction is hard, especially of the past
http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/1998changesannotated.gif?w=500&h=355&h=355
+1
Becky says:
November 7, 2011 at 7:43 am
Iām an avid gardener in Colorado. I normally get piles of zucchini and yellow squash, but this year it was a pittance. The only thing that grew well was cool season stuff ā greens, peas and root vegetables. I got lots of turnips and carrots. *sigh*
Becky… it sounds like you had your soil pH off and that is why you didn’t get squash. I really doubt that the temps have much to do with it since squash is a much faster growing plant than peas and root veggies.
It’s abundantly clear that the biggest challenge that climatology faces as a science (besides inherent dishonesty amongst it’s practitioners) is one of engineering…namely measurement.
By the way, will somebody please send some cool, wet summer weather our way in Central TX? I had to grow tomatoes and peppers in containers this year because I couldn’t afford to keep my garden watered!
All tomato growers should be classified as CAGW-deniers and sent to a CO2-gulag for re-education or until their mental illness has been cured
This jibes with my perceptions.
Aw, crap. Back to the Coming Ice Age.
Comments from failed the UK tomato growers are very interesting. I bet your ancestors were saying the same thing about grapes when Medieval Warm Period ended.
How long before we are told that the science is settled, that to forestall an ice age, we must control CO2?
Take that! , Al Gore….Ha!
Re: averaging period for climate.
I have determined that the appropriate averaging period for climate attribution to CO2 is 30 years. This is because 30 years is the average time it takes for a researcher/scientist to enter the field of climate science, produce papers, press releases, and presentations warning of impending climate DOOM, collect six figure annual salaries with generous medical benefits and retirement packages, then retire before people realize they (the scientists) were wrong…the joke, of course, is on the taxpayers…
āāWe see no evidence of it [global warming] having slowed down,ā he told BBC Radio 4ās Today programme. There was, he added, āno levelling offā.ā ā Dr. Richard Muller
This is simple to explain. If there was no real warming trend before, then new evidence showing no warming trend indicates no evidence of the (non-existent) trend slowing. This comment is only endorsement of the AGW position if one assumes it is predicated upon previous evidence of AGW.
Ha!
And all of this is in spite of the weather stations being relocated into heat sink areas of the cities, near buildings, paved parking lots and other items that skew the temperatures up from the adjacent natural ambient temperature.
Six months ago I compiled a graph from data gleaned off of the Weather Channel web page for my local area (Pacific Northwest.) It covered a period from 1975 to the present and used the high and low data, as no median data was available (it was just an exercise in curiosity.) I was expecting a measurable decline (as temperatures had seemed to be dropping off) but ended up with a nearly flat line (if I remember correctly I think that there was a minute rise out to quite a few decimal places, or in other words, well inside the margin of error.) So I find it quite interesting that your investigation very nearly corroborates my own, with the difference being the time period involved. Isn’t this what they used to call ‘science’?
It looks to me we have no choice but to start driving more powerful gasoline powered cars and to increase the size of our SUVs. Before it’s too late! If you care about our planet and the future of crop development, START DRIVING NOW!!!!
Oh, and by the way, if anyone tells you about the co2 levels in our upper atmosphere, tell them to “pack sand” because co2 is heavier than air and sinks to the oceans where it is absorbed until the sun releases it again, a natural process.
Now calculate how much this hoax has and will cost you in dollars and add that directly too Al Gore’s bank account. PISSED YET?!!!! Al Gore and his ilk have walked into your home and lifted many dollars from your possession. PISSED YET?!!!!! So, if you see AL Gore….punch him square in the nose for all of us!!!!
I assume Anthony knows already: Instapundit Glenn Reynolds linked to this analysis today.
Can’t wait until those in the AGW cult looks at this data and with a straight face claim global warming models predicted these kind of cooling “anomalies”. You know, just like their earlier global warming models predicted that there would be more numerous and more viscious hurricanes hitting America after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 devastated New Orleans … oh wait, there would be LESS hurricanes … yeah, that’s the ticket! Frauds and liars. I have more respect for snake oil salesmen, at least they’re honest about wanting to scalp you for your money.
Wellington, you beat me to it.
Anthony, protocol has it that you thank Instapundit for an “Instalanche,” providing, of course, you got a spike in traffic from the link!
Best,
Mike
Oh, crap! Actually, it’s AGC, not AGW!!!
Iām always suspicious of anything that the only cure for it is more taxes and government power and socialist programs.
Also at the same time it was warmer on Earth it was warmer on Mars. hmmm. What do they have in common? Mars rovers? SUVS? Fossil fuels? Ohhh the SUN!
Now we are into global cooling, they now call it climate change, which happens every day when the sun comes up, very easy to prove; did the temp change today? Why yes it did, well that my friend is climate change!
We should be much more afraid of global cooling because crops donāt grow too well in the snow and ice fields of a mini ice age. But the world has survived it the many times it has happened all without mans intervention, ether causing it or curing it.
I live in Northern England and have managed to grow tomatoes in the open air. They haven’t all ripened but most of them did. Our garden is sheltered but even so.
Several of the 1995 – 2010 charts show average temperature lines completely below the actual temperature lines. How does that happen?
A late comment š
The massive change in NCEP/CFS forecasts happened the night between 25 and 26 oct, i tracked it, see update latest in the article.
http://hidethedecline.eu/pages/posts/is-a-historic-super-la-nina-is-just-few-months-ahead-243.php
As I write, there appears to be no significant change in SOI or deep water temps happening overnigth then ,so it points to a manual decided change of predictions?
K.R. Frank
Follow the money and you will find that lots of people have gotten very rich from GW hype. Grant approval is a cinch if you can link your study somehow to GW, so there is too much money and prestige at stake for the warmistas to ever admit failure.