BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011
CORRECTED DISCUSSION SECTION
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 82.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE
NICARAGUAN BORDER
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST. RINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND THEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
INFORMATION FROM SATELLITES AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40
MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...PRIMARILY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Hope it heads for Houston.
Beat me to it, Southern TX could sure us a drink.
It is unfathomable that we are already up to the R’s in this year’s season. I mean, Wilma during 2005 was acceptable.
But an R storm this year?? Really??
Best conservative estimates….we should be around a J.
Joe Bastardi’s discontent with the Nanny State naming of storms in the US Atlantic [when extratropical pacific gales can be just as strong or stronger] is well founded and worth pause.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
You won’t like the name if you believe in omens.
Rina can be a nickname for Katrina.
And the container ship Rena is currently causing New Zealand’s worst oil spill off the Bay of Plenty:
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/world/rena-captain-arrested-containers-in-sea-on-the-astrolabe-reef-off-tauranga/story-e6frf7lf-1226164565680
The current track looks like it runs up against the Yucatan and bounces north.
RE: savethesharks says:
October 23, 2011 at 9:51 pm
The only one they didn’t name was the one that made them look bad, blowing up out of next to nothing and hitting Florida with 80 mph winds, a couple weeks back.
I don’t know why those guys got into weather forecasting if they can’t stand being wrong. The weather is always doing unexpected things, and that’s why it is so fascinating. But I think those guys are all ego, and will name wimpy storms way out in the middle of nowhere, because it boosts the numbers and makes their forecast look good, and then won’t name a warm-core storm with 80 mph winds hitting Florida because it makes them look bad. (The insurance companies will be pissed off, however, because they pay less out when a storm is named.) In any case, those poor fellows are more concerned with their fat heads and big egos than science and truth. Sad but true.
They can name as many of these storms as they want it all comes down to where they make landfall if they make landfall. We can’t even go back more than a couple of hundred years when it comes to tracking landfalls and at best we can go back a couple of decades to look at total storms to know what is normal or not. At least as far as the Atlantic hurricanes are concerned we can take landfall into account further back for the Pacific, but even that is an incomplete record.
savethesharks says:
October 23, 2011 at 9:51 pm
Klotzbach & Gray’s update at http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2011/aug2011/aug2011.pdf forecast 17 named storms in their December forecast and 16 in their April, June, and August forecasts.
Rena is the 17th named storm. (No Q)
Looks like their ACE forecast (160) will fall well short though.
[snip. Read the site Policy. ~dbs, mod.]
And woof, it’s a hurricane already:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/241821.shtml
Looks to me to be more a case of underestimation of winds in prior reports rather than particularly rapid intensification, but it’s certainly building nicely. Track is still a bit uncertain, but those in Houston hoping for a dousing are probably gonna be disappointed.
Still, we’re in the Caribbean part of the season now, so there’s still a chance over the next few weeks, but don’t hold your breath.
Gonna hit the wall at the Yucatan….
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2011/anoma.10.24.2011.gif
For a certain recently snipped commenter, just above:
“Hurricane season in the Atlantic begins June 1st and ends November 30th. …
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/”
And every hurricane begins as a tropical depression, then a tropical storm.
Some chuckles are contra-indicative of intelligence and knowledge.