This is one of those Jeane Dixon style predictions, written in such general terms that it can be provable by just about any summer in the future. According to the Wikipedia article on her, John Allen Paulos, a mathematician at Temple University, coined the term “the Jeane Dixon effect,” which refers to a tendency to promote a few correct predictions while ignoring a larger number of incorrect predictions. Sound familiar?
Example in 2012: Hey, there was a new record July temperature in North Podunk Saskatchewan (apologies to Kate), See, we were right! Worse, while citing an NCDC report that agrees with their prediction, the author conveniently avoids the conclusion made by NOAA last year related to the Russian heat wave of 2010 which has no linkage to “global warming” but was the same sort of blocking high pressure setup that caused the US heat wave this year.
I provide this press release for entertainment purposes only.
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Researchers predict extreme summertime temperatures to become a regular occurrence
To happen even if expected increases in global temperatures are avoided
In an article in the current issue of the journal Climatic Change Letters, Boston University researchers have estimated the impact near-term increases in global-mean temperatures will have on summertime temperatures in the U.S. and around the globe.The “2°C global warming target” is in reference to the current international efforts to reduce emissions of heat-trapping gases and limit human-induced global-mean near-surface temperature increases to 2°C (3.5°F) relative to the pre-industrial era, three-fifths of which has already occurred.
“We wanted to determine the impact such a temperature increase might have upon the frequency of seasonal-mean temperature extremes in various regions of the world, even if we were to avoid this target” said Bruce Anderson, associate professor of geography and environment and the study’s principal author.
“In particular, we wanted to determine if preventing the global-mean temperature increase from reaching this threshold would prevent extreme temperature values from becoming a normal occurrence in these regions.” Anderson’s research indicates that if the 2°C increase were to come to pass 70–80% of the land surface will experience summertime temperature values that exceed observed historical extremes (equivalent to the top 5% of summertime temperatures experienced during the second half of the 20th century) in at least half of all years.
In other words, even if an increase in the global mean temperature is limited to 2°C, current historical extreme values will still effectively become the norm for 70-80% of the earth’s land surface. “Many regions of the globe—including much of Africa, the southeastern and central portions of Asia, Indonesia, and the Amazon—are already committed to reaching this point, given current amounts of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere” said Anderson. Global-mean temperatures are expected to increase an additional 0.6°C (1°F) over the coming decades even if no more carbon dioxide, methane, or other heat-trapping gases are added to the atmosphere.
In the United States, the impacts are expected to be most severe over the western third of the country. “In these regions, if the 2°C threshold is passed, it is more likely than not that every summer will be an extreme summer compared with today,” said Anderson. Further, the region is expected to follow soon after Africa, Asia, and the Amazon as one in which summertime temperature extremes will become the norm. “While the western third of the U.S. is not committed to reaching such a situation, it is certainly on the brink,” said Anderson.“While previous work, including our own and that of researchers at Stanford, has highlighted that summertime temperature extremes, and how frequently they occur, will change significantly even in response to relatively small increases in global-mean temperatures, the extent and immediacy of the results really caught us off guard,” said Anderson.
“Because these results are referenced to increases in global-mean temperatures, and not some particular time or change in amount of heat-trapping gases, they hold whether we reach this global-mean temperature increase in the next 40-50 years as currently projected, or the next century.
They really are telling us that this is a temperature threshold that poses significant risks to our lives and livelihoods.” Extreme summertime temperatures killed tens of thousands in Europe in 2003 and Russia in 2010 and produced over $50 billion in agriculture losses across the central and eastern U.S. in 1988. In addition, at least 18 states, including much of the southern and south-eastern U.S., suffered through these types of extreme conditions this past summer.
“We find that the results are sensitive to both the observational dataset used to determine the range of historical variability and the numerical model data used to determine the grid-point increases in future temperatures,” said Anderson. Despite these caveats, the findings suggest that substantial fractions of the globe could experience seasonal-mean temperature extremes with high regularity well before the 2°C global-warming target is reached.
Contact information for the authors:
Bruce AndersonAssociate Professor of Geography and EnvironmentBoston UniversityPhone: +1-617-353-4807Email: brucea@bu.edu
NOTE: The National Climate Data Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is scheduled to release its latest (August 2011) State of the Climate update on Thursday, September 8 by 1:00 p.m. EDT. The update, which relates directly to the findings in the Climatic Change Letters article, can be found here: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/
Reference
Anderson BT (2011) Near-term increase in frequency of seasonal temperature extremes prior to the 2°C global warming target. Climatic Change Letters. DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0196-4.
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Here’s the paper abstract:
Given current international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit human-induced global-mean near-surface temperature increases to 2°C, relative to the pre-industrial era, we seek to determine the impact such a temperature increase might have upon the frequency of seasonal-mean temperature extremes; further we seek to determine what global-mean temperature increase would prevent extreme temperature values from becoming the norm. Results indicate that given a 2°C global mean temperature increase it is expected that for 70–80% of the land surface maximum seasonal-mean temperatures will exceed historical extremes (as determined from the 95th percentile threshold value over the second half of the 20th Century) in at least half of all years, i.e. the current historical extreme values will effectively become the norm. Many regions of the globe—including much of Africa, the southeastern and central portions of Asia, Indonesia, and the Amazon—will reach this point given the “committed” future global-mean temperature increase of 0.6°C (1.4°C relative to the pre-industrial era) and 50% of the land surface will reach it given a future global-mean temperature increase of between 0.8 and 0.95°C (1.6–1.75°C relative to the pre-industrial era). These results suggest substantial fractions of the globe could experience seasonal-mean temperature extremes with high regularity, even if the global-mean temperature increase remains below the 2°C target.
Wow. It’s gonna be hot in summer. No word about wether it will be cold in winter?
Hal
whether
I’m gonna go out on a limb here and say it will be cold in winter.
Signed,
Nostradamus
We find that the results are sensitive to both the observational dataset used to determine the range of historical variability and the numerical model data…
Oh, is that all?
My model estimates that, more likely than not, this will make the roses bloom.
I predict that we will have record cold this winter – somewhere.
“These results suggest substantial fractions of the globe could experience seasonal-mean temperature extremes with high regularity…”
“Could”? Isn’t that about the same as saying “might”? Aliens COULD invade and enslave us all. A stray black hole COULD cross our path and destroy all life on earth. A large meteor could strike the ocean and flood Al Gore’s beach house causing him to die a happy man in the belief that one of his prophecies of climate doom had finally come to pass. “Could” means almost nothing.
“Extreme summertime temperatures killed tens of thousands in Europe in 2003 and Russia in 2010….” Really?!?! I Googled the heatwaves and admit that’s what some people claim. I also Googled the 2011 USA heatwave death toll and got a number around 33. Is American heat different from European and Russian heat? Are Europeans and Russians just more susceptible to the heat than heartier Americans? Do we count differently than Europeans and Russians? I’m concerned! It’s insufferably hot here in Florida most of year. Am I going to die?
Yes, but, uhm, the temperature increase is only (quick glance at Widget) 0.37 [K] +/- 0.5 [K]…so let’s see…Snow drifts in July [Podunk] will be the new “gormal”. Oh Dear.
What a boring, useless paper! Nothing new here. Where are all the climatistas hurling tantrums at their own kind for basically plagarizing a meme?
Lack of air-conditioning, because of high energy prices, killed thousands, not the heat. Another consequence of green policies.
Heat-trapping??? Carbon??? Human-induced??? None of these are accurate. Even in the oft quoted 97% survey of 77 scientists that agree with the statement of “significantly contributed to”,not “human induced”. Where are the 98% of scientists that agree with “human caused catastrophic global warming”?? After all, it’s not warming or human contribution that is the disagreement…..it’s the part about being disastrous. Show me the list or the survey!
Wow, imagine what will happen if temperatures equal the MWP. A new renaissance?
And why not report on what a model predicts for the frequency of extreme cold events? Oh, right, because the model would probably predict those to go down. And if the model is anywhere close to reality, it will predict more of a decline in the frequency of extremely cold days than increase in extremely hot days.
But analyzing seasonal means, as they are doing, doesn’t quite get into the details of events enough.
But we wouldn’t want to tell people something that might make them think the net effect is less over all extremes.
Also, it sounds like this is something of a non-story, really, in the sense that they are saying, “our model predicts warming, and we find that when warming is predicted, the old records are eventually exceeded.” Um, duh. It would be kinda impossible for that not to occur. If it didn’t, it would mean that despite predicting warming, their models weren’t actually predicting…well, what they are predicting.
Good lord!!! …and they live among us!
“These results suggest substantial fractions of the globe could experience seasonal-mean temperature extremes with high regularity, even if the global-mean temperature increase remains below the 2°C target.”
Doesn’t this sort of imply that substantial fractions of the globe would experience seasonal-mean termperature extremes below averge temperatures if the increase were to be below the 2 deg target?
Joanne Nova and Real Science also have posts up on the same topic, which I have posted a precis of here: http://pindanpost.com/2011/09/10/media-propaganda-machine-suffering-memory-loss/
Memory losses, lapses in judgement, blinded by ideology, the media is in a mess…entertainment purposes only? LOL Well, I suppose Science Fiction is Entertainment…
I didn’t know that the unusually cool summer in the PNW was actually a 2C rise to lofty extremes as the region withered away due to intense baking.
Hmmm….maybe California will blow away into the sea as dust.
But then, it was hotter in the Dust Bowl of the early 1930’s, which gave way to heavy snows down low…in California.
A European history lesson for the Maunder minimum 1645-1715. During a quiet solar period extreme weather events occur, but it has nothing to do with CO2:
In England, the years 1651-54 produced scorching hot dry summers.
There was a great drought in southern France in 1654-56. Rains were very rare
In 1655-56, the Seine River in France was frozen from the December 8th to
the 18th
1657 A.D. In England, this year produced a scorching hot dry summer
In 1658, the bays and inlets of Northern Europe froze over early in December
During this winter of 1662-63, which was very severe, the frost in Paris, France lasted from 5 December until 8 March. The Seine River was frozen in December 1662 completely
Winter of 1664 / 1665 A.D. In England, there was a frost from 28th December to 7th February. The 6th of February “one of the coldest days, they all say, ever felt in England
1666 A.D. In England, it was intensely hot and dry. There were east winds. The Great Fire of London occurred
The winter in 1667 was very severe in Holland, but extreme cold occurred late in the season, from 16 March to 1 April
In 1670, the winter was intensely cold. The Little and Great Belts were frozen, and many people
perished. [The Great Belt in Denmark (Danish: Storebælt) is a strait between the main Danish islands of Zealand (Sjælland) and Funen (Fyn). The Little Belt separates Fyn from Jylland.]
http://www.breadandbutterscience.com/Weather.pdf (9.6Mb)
That’s somewhat an exaggeration about the 2003 heatwave in Europe. Mind you it was bad. Around 35,000 died from heat related causes, mainly in France (15,000),Germany (9,000) Spain and Italy (4000) and 2,000 in South England, where the temps went to 38C. But the main concern was that the pollution (from motor vehicles) plus the heatwave turned the atmosphere in Paris into a photochemical smog. They had to watch the nuclear reactors too. One old one was just 2C from being turned off. That’s the problem with nuclear they require 200,000,000 liters of H2O a day to keep cool but once the outside cooling systems reaches 50C they are turned off for safety reasons. But it had been dry, the Rhine was at an all time low too. Forest fires and the air conditioning didn’t work well in chicken factories, hence the poor buggars died. Same as else where the energy requirements started to fail. Heat does kill plus pollution. But the London Smogs in the 50s killed about 15,000. To me 38 C isn’t that hot? (Hot enough mind you and you don’t go out in the midday sun or do much exercise, you keep well watered and in the shade). 45 C is hot though as experienced in Paris. One summer I stewarded at a Championship dog show, (at Penrith NSW) and was it hot 42 C. Some dogs died from the heat, others forgot their shining coats and took there dogs for a dip in the nearby river and when traveling back to the coast (Woolloware nr Cronulla) where I lived cars were stopped along the road from overheating. But nearer the coast it was considerably cooler. But it was then that the official Dogs governing council, said all shows must stop when the temp gets to 39C). One can expect heatwaves anywhere in the world, and if folks aren’t used to high temps they can die from dehydration fairly quickly. Or heat stroke.
So let me see……. there’s going to be a big increase in temperature – well maybe 2degC anyway.
Let’s just pretend that’s true.
That means…… Aah! Right! The penny drops. It’s going to get hotter! OK! I get it! Great!
But at least we won’t have to move to Queensland to get warm in winter (or Florida if you’re in the USA; Spain if you’re in the UK; anywhere else if you’re in NZ ..just kidding;).
But hang on a minute…… it’s already warmer than that there. So…..Mmmm……. Eh???
/sarc
There is no way that any conceivable warming is going to be bad for everyone. There are many many environments which will prosper.
Who said that the temperature of the planet as measured 150 years or so ago was “just right” ? (apart from Goldilocks perhaps).
“Extreme summertime temperatures killed tens of thousands in Europe in 2003 and Russia in 2010”
I can’t remember those two events and I am sure that if they did happen, the AGW propaganda machine would have kept us “informed”.
I can say that the weather in the UK in April was very summery, on the other hand the summer weather was very autumnal. The last three summers here have been predominantly cold, wet and miserable. The last three winters have been very cold for us with temperatures here in Newcastle upon Tyne in negative double figures and three consecutive white Christmases. Like I have said many times in WUWT, individual weather events over two,three or even ten years cannot be evidence of a GW or GC, but if the warmists say, yes it can, then I invite them to comment on my observations above. Of course they won’t, cherry picking facts is as much a part of AGW as is the scorn and derision spat out on those who don’t believe in AGW, with this website in particular bearing the brunt of these hissy fits.
I’m jealous, I want some of your “global” warming. We’ve just had our coldest and wettest summer for 18 years; my tomatoes failed miserably and my sunflowers are a foot shorter than last year. I’ve invested in a real greenhouse for next year, as it appears the greenhouse effect doesn’t work as advertised in Scotland.
“really caught us off guard” …. “It’s worse than we thought”.
Louis: Yes, “could” means almost nothing, but in the media “could” gets translated to “will”. Regularly.
I lived in UK from 1942 – 1965. Went to Cyprus 1960-1963. Went to Oz & I returned for a brief stay in 1969 on the way home from Bermuda.
My earliest recollections (before central heating) was Jack Frost patterns on the inside of one’s
bedroom, icicles hanging off taps in the bathroom, the Thames freezing over at Windsor in 1963
the coldest winter in 1963 since 1947. White fingers and toes walking home from school in Winter. Our summer recess was from mid July to early September and some school holidays we never saw much sun, but when we went back to school (bummer) the weather became nice and warm and sunny. We invariably had snow every winter, maybe not in time for Christmas but even snow in Spring around Easter time. Came to Sydney in Nov 1965, and the first Christmas Day it was 105 F and we all went to the beach after I cooked a hot pork Christmas Dinner. Then they had water restrictions and the know all up the road, said ‘I suppose you Poms don’t know about water restrictions’ Wrong in 1965 in North Hykeham nr Lincoln, we had the same water restrictions imposed, the green lawns went brown, etc.
Depends where you lived in UK. The further North, the colder temps, especially Scotland who often had snow drifts etc., like your last winter. Seems it got slightly warmer for a while and they started to grow grapes again for wine, that they stopped in the 14th Century because that was the start of the mini ice age. I can only remember citrus and grapes grown in conservatoriums when I was in UK. And they eventually turned the wine presses into the first printing presses.
JANET ON 10 SEPT 12.15 am. Don’t worry I had only two tomatoes too, and I live in Australia.
But the reason is, the night temps get too cold for the flowers to set into fruit. But I live on the Northern Tablelands that is high up, we’re 3,500 absl. Nearly as high as Ben Nevis. And actually about 187 kms from the coast where they grow bananas. But my granddad had terrific tomatoes in the 1940s to 50s in a green house, and that was in Liverpool, Lancashire, I would like to put one up here actually.
Your opposition, or at least the clued up ones, tend to be cautious about attributing single record events to global warning, simply because the climate has a lot of intrinsic variability.
So any sensible arguments needs to be about statistics. For example if the climate is not changing then the number of hot extremes should be balanced by the number of cold extremes. If the frequencies are not in balance that is evidence for warning of cooling.
In addition if climate conditions are constant the frequencies of new records should go down. If the frequencies of new records are going up it means the climate is changing, either getting colder or hotter.
So guys start collecting those statistics.
DanDaly says:
September 9, 2011 at 8:25 pm
No one expects the Air Conditioning. Our chief weapon is cool air. And dehumidification. Our two weapons are cool air and dehumidification.
Seriously, the reason people aren’t dropping like flies in the US? We are wealthy enough to burn fossil fuels to make electricity to run air conditioners.
This, of course, is true about all of the vicissitudes of climate. They don’t bother the wealthy, we can purchase what we need, including a steady flow of cool air in hot times and a steady flow of warm air in cool times. Which, of course, takes energy.
My general conclusion is that the best way to insulate the poor from climate is to assist them in becoming less energy poor.
w.
Winter 82/83 was the coldest on record for parts of Shropshire and Staffordshire (UK). I remember using de-icer on the inside of my car windscreen. We had a foot of snow in May/June around ’78 also in Staffordshire – very unusual. There was a lot of talk about crazy weather at the time.
An extremely misleading paragraph from the research team. Their statement gives the impression that global temperatures were constant before the 19-20th centuries. Again and again, the idea of ‘everything was perfect before evil humanity stepped in’ appears. How can anyone talk about a constant pre-industrial climate in light of massive evidence for the LIA and MWP? Have they ever seen the holocene ice core record from Greenland?
Secondly, the recorded global temperature increase is not even close to 1.2°c, best estimate for the 1850-2010 period is just 0.7°c (without any correction for urbanisation effects). Oh, and only a fraction of that warming has occurred in the age of large-scale anthropogenic CO2 emissions.
Ellis @ 9/10 at 1.52 pm. Don’t let the Greens hear you say that. I agree by the way, but it has shades of ‘Let them eat cake’ by Marie Antoinette during the bread strikes in France before the French revolution. I lived without air conditioning until we lived in Bermuda. Bermuda has a strange climate, cold in winter and hot and humid in summer. The weather in summer was very much like in humid Malaysia and we kept a small electric heater (enclosed) in the walk in wardrobe to stop mold forming on leather. But I remember the temps falling to 39 F the coldest I had experienced since leaving Australia. Luckily my husband was an air line pilot, and the company paid for our electricity. We had only two air conditions one in the main bedroom, that was huge and the others in my children’s bedroom. But we used fresh sea air to cool the rest of the house. We also had a wood open fire in one small room, (burning Red Cedar would you believe).
But what you say is true. There was a program on TV that used an African hospital as an example. They had been provided with one solar panel. But at night they could either run a small refrigerator (to keep serums and inoculations in) or run the lights or other electrical appliances. Not both. I don’t think they had telephones or what – computers or TV’s! Actually a petrol generator could have provided them with enough electricity to provide their energy needs.
We are becoming hot house flowers really. Must have a stable temperature all the time in the homes ie 70 deg.F. We use dryers to dry our clothes (not me by the way they are too energy forced and expensive). Rather than use solar (the sun and wind) I have over the last five years, and being English by birth, adapted to the cold and if it gets too hot, I use an electric fan to circulate the air. Or have a cool shower before retiring. The number of times this latter has been necessary is where I live is about three times in the last two years. But I do remember a few years ago we did have a few days are unseasonable hot weather and I did one day have two cool showers in one day.
Tonight on the Northern Tablelands NSW the night time temps have fallen to minus. No heating but an electric blanket and I sit here at my computer with a woolen jacket on over my woollen jumper. Sure I would like it warmer. But my nose is a bit cold, and I have got acclimatized against the cold, because I want to save electricity costs. Snow might come too. It feels it is snowing somewhere near. People are getting obsessed with the AGW. When actually they should be adapting to colder weather to come.
55-60 percent of the alleged 0.7°c global warming was recorded before 1940, when increases in CO2 levels remained marginal. Even the IPCC and its satellite institutions admit this. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst3/Figure_5_colour.png
It would be hard to believe that the 1975-1998 warming was exclusively caused by CO2. I can accept the idea that it was partially anthropogenic, and if so we can blame humanity for a global temperature increase of 0.05-0.2°c. All that we need is a global carbon regulation scheme…
Janet says:
September 10, 2011 at 12:17 am
I’m jealous, I want some of your “global” warming. We’ve just had our coldest and wettest summer for 18 years; my tomatoes failed miserably and my sunflowers are a foot shorter than last year. I’ve invested in a real greenhouse for next year, as it appears the greenhouse effect doesn’t work as advertised in Scotland.
Ditto Yorkshire, England. My mother’s tomatoes and chillies (in her greenhouse) failed miserably this year, bearing only a handful of tiny fruits. The cayenne chilli pepper plant in my flat (my window sill is my greenhouse) bore absolutely no fruit at all this year. There’s just been too many overcast days this summer, and not enough bright sunlight. I’m not all complaining though – I’m a fair-skinned guy who doesn’t take well to the heat, so I’ve actually loved this cool summer!
Is there a simple graph somewhere showing the number of temperature records broken in any period? It seems the prediction of record highs only has any value if it can be shown that the number of records broken is anomalous.
Bushbunny and everyone: The question should be how many “additional” heat related deaths were there, i.e., how many in excess of the average over some period of years, and actually, that’s the least that’s needed to get a real handle on the question. I’m not challenging the claim that the European heat wave of 2003 was a killer – I believe it was – but it just isn’t informative to say 15,000 died here, 5,000 died there, etc.
Andrew Harding: I don’t know how the news was in the UK, but here in the US the left avoided talking about the European heat wave of 2003 because it put French health care in a bad light. Some of them even indignantly denied that it happened – they thought (or purported to think) that conservatives had invented it as propaganda against socialized medicine.
Sorry for this extra message. I may have forgotten to check the “notify” box, so I’m checking it now.
This would explain the proliferating slew of all-time record high temperatures for the following:
individual U.S. states
individual countries
continents
Oh, sorry, no. Never mind. An extreme exaggeration on my part.
This can be explained to David UK at Sept 10 12.17 am. If the (seedling) plants were bred to survive in different climates (say the continent of Europe) they might not handle well in cooler climates. Also soil conditions might also dictate how they survive. Tomatoes and chillies are South American natives. They prefer high microbiology in their soils. Bit complex, but there are companies who produce seedlings that are not expected to produce well. Another story, eh.
Mr. Watts, the NOAA never concluded that there was no linkage betwwen the 2010 Russian heat wave and global warming. You are really stretching what the NOAA did say and coming to conclusions beyond what has been said. Very alarmist of you.
Barghumer Sept 10 at 1.55 am. On the inside of your windscreen, that’s cold. We get in Australia
frost on the outside, that we wash off with water before starting the car, and of course have anti-freeze in our engines. What I would like to say, to get this climate change madness in perspective. The Earth is a natural ice planet. We have experienced full glacial periods and mini ice ages, and depending where one lives, these can be catastrophic or mildly inhibiting human evolution. The planet also experiences interglacials or interstadials, that we are experiencing now. And during those periods it will progress colder with warmer interludes. We will expect extremes of weather too. Actually from my archaeology and palaeoanthropology studies, Japan was during the last glacial period so subject to seismic disruptions it was not colonized.. It does seem that some areas of the globe do get more effected than others and one is the Northern Hemisphere particularly those areas that are naturally warmed by the Gulf Stream. We have to adapt now, the hunter and gatherers, and then fishers (not until the ceasation of the last glacial
period because sea levels were too low and the Mediteranean was swamps and lakes where fishing wasn’t easy to find) Well without transport you couldn’t travel 50 miles to a lake easily, and without boats you couldn’t travel to the edge of the continental shelves to find deep water.
I don’t think another full glacial period will arrive in the foreseeable future. And with the building of the Panama canal, this might keep that gulf stream flowing better than in previous times, one of the factors is that when it stops and is diverted it helps bring on a glacial period. My concern is that there are scientists and people trying to push this AGW alarmist doctrine without any scientific proof. Rather than concentrating on sustainability and adaptation. .And a political agenda that is supposed to promote ‘green living’ that is supposed to control the climate. Not
help us to produce better food and enough food to sustain us, but give monies better spent on research to help us to address natural climate change and how this can effect us detrimentally as far as ours and others survival. OK – we could have an asteroid or big meteor land on this planet one time in the near future. That will be catastrophic, how can we avoid such an emergency.
There are so many millions of people displaced through civil disturbance in the world, how can we accommodate them and bring them gradually into our communities. It’s OK we provide them with
money and welfare to survive in a new country. One that is fully immersed in 21st century technology, and they can’t speak English? Why not put them onto the land and with help provide food somewhere. It doesn’t require anyone to speak the host countries language to learn how to grow food. Some are most probably more experienced than us. Just an idea.
Smoking Frog at 3.53 am 10 September. Actually I wasn’t aware of the 2003 heat wave, but got it from a book published by Reader’s Digest ‘When Nature turns Nasty’ ‘How air, earth, water and fire have forged our world’ it has no year of publication but it was recent. However they seem to strongly suggest in some chapters it was caused by AGW.or rather Climate change.
So if I have this right warm period is AGW/climate with all the usual ‘many may die ‘ motifs, but a huge area of the globe being buried under snow and ice is a ‘weather’ event and the thousands that do die are nothing ? right? Gota love the greenish thinking
“Russian heat wave of 2010 which has no linkage to “global warming”.
Amazing how “sceptics” can make such absolutist, unscientifically verified statements in the same breath they criticize “alarmists” for perfectly rational scientifically based assertions.
I’d like to see Anthony’s explanation of how a world having warmed by an average of nearly a degree can have absolutely zero effect on a Russian heatwave.
The games played here are amusing – you pretend the contention is that AGW has caused events such as these when no scientist ever makes such claims. But to claim that the world having indisputably warmed has had no effect on weather events is just idiotic.
Still, I guess without these dishonesties, there wouldn’t be much for you to say, would there?
It’s the Chemtrails. All that aluminum oxide, barium and strontium salts are not good for tomatoes and peppers.
These particles doesn’t stay in the upper atmosphere to deflect the radiation. Once they’re on the ground and in the lower atmosphere, they contribute to a warming effect and they are man made. Al Quixote and the EPA should investigate to see if this is a real problem or an imaginary one.
Organic farming is not what it used to be.
My weather model, crafted at great expense in time and money, predicts that it will get dark sometime after 6pm in the summer.
How does one make an application for a Nobel??
.
Any bets that there will be no immediate feedback available on GoreThursday?
I’d love to see Morano on Fox during the 6 pm EST high point.
Do any of these AGW “scientists” and “researchers” ever read history or look at old maps? Or even read historically correct novels and short stories? For example, early nineteenth century maps referred to a large portion of the plains states as “the great American desert” for a good reason – only near the rivers was there green vegetation. Away from those water sources it was hot and dry, like the desert. Even today, without irrigation, substantial acreage would still be hot and dry in the summer. Steinbeck chronicled the “dust bowl” of the nineteen thirties very well. Apparently it doesn’t take much to get credentials as a “climate scientist”. Certainly not a knowledge of past climate history.
DeanL: please see http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/csi/moscow2010/
“The indications are that the current blocking event is intrinsic to the natural variability of summer climate in this region (Figure 11), a region which has a climatological vulnerability to blocking and associated heat waves (e.g., 1960, 1972, 1988). A high index value for blocking days is not a necessary condition for high July surface temperature over western Russia—the warm summers of 1981, 1999, 2001, and 2002 did not experience an unusual number of blocking days. ”
So even the believers don’t think they can claim that it is caused by “global whatever” but they say that it may happen in the future (duh) as it also happened before.
Indeed. My reaction precisely.
What a tour de force of obvious meets 11ty!!!
“Extreme summertime temperatures killed tens of thousands in Europe in 2003”
Somehow I missed this one. You know, in France they had another warm episode in 2006. But something different happened. Way fewer people died, despite similar conditions. Funny thing happened: people learned to adapt, and in just three years:
Fouillet, A., G. Rey, V. Wagner, K. Laadi, P. Empereur-Bissonet, A Le Tetre, P. Frayssinet, P. Bessemoulin, F. Laurent, P. De Crouy-Chanel, E. Jougla, and D. Hémon, 2008. Has the impact of heat waves on mortality changed in France since the European heat wave of summer 2003? A study of the 2006 heat wave. International Journal of Epidemiology, doi:10.1093/ije/dym253.
They developed a statistical model relating temperatures to mortality rates, a very good one by the looks of it’s performance surrounding the two events. Interestingly, their model under-predicted the elevated mortality during the 2003 event, but over-predicted mortality during the 2006 event, which is readily explained if the vulnerability of the French to extreme heat has changed to be less in a short time. The inference implied by the authors of this study, that more frequent very warm summers will mean more heat related deaths, is quite simply factually inaccurate.
Climate Dissident,
You missed the point completely and utterly and, in so doing, reinforced it.
Now that we have the secret to climate change, we will definitely need to keep our carbon-emitting assets in good condition and on standby (jobs booster). Indeed, as we curb our carbon emissions, the earth will cool. But if the cooling starts to become excessive, we must be prepared to turn on our carbon emitters to warm the earth, thereby keeping it at the right temperature. Then, those who have bought carbon credits will be entitled to refunds–i.e. MONEY NEUTRAL.
DeanL says:
September 10, 2011 at 8:25 am
The games played here are amusing – you pretend the contention is that AGW has caused events such as these when no scientist ever makes such claims. But to claim that the world having indisputably warmed has had no effect on weather events is just idiotic.
Still, I guess without these dishonesties, there wouldn’t be much for you to say, would there?
Speaking of dishonesties, let’s just dissect a couple of porkies of yours, shall we?
1) No one is “pretending the contention is that AGW has caused events such as these”. The contention is that a) CAGW is real, and b) CAGW will cause more and more “extreme events” such as the Russian and the American heat waves in the future.
2) No one is claiming that the slight warming (much of it exaggerated by issues with UHI, faulty sensor placement, and station drop out), since the LIA doesn’t affect weather. The hysterical claims of climate bedwetters, though, are unsupported by the facts, and are merely indicative of weather and/or climate amnesia.
But, I guess without your dishonesties, you wouldn’t have much to say, would you?
At risk of stating the obvious: There Ain’t No Such Thing As Global Warming.
H.R. says:
September 9, 2011 at 8:02 pm
I’m gonna go out on a limb here and say it will be cold in winter.
Signed,
Nostradamus
What? Without any modelling?
Signed,
Houdini
DeanL says:
September 10, 2011 at 8:25 am
Dean, check these out…The literature says it aint so…
Over the period of 1965–2008, the global TC activity, as measured by storm days, shows a large amplitude fluctuation regulated by the ENSO and PDO, but has no trend, suggesting that the rising temperature so far has not yet an impact on the global total number of storm days.” Wang, B., Y. Yang, Q.‐H. Ding, H. Murakami, and F. Huang, 2010. Climate control of the global tropical storm days (1965–2008). Geophysical Research Letters,
“(1) There is no significant overall long-term trend common to all indices in cyclone activity in the North Atlantic and European region since the Dalton minimum.
Bärring and Fortuniak, 2009 International Journal of Climatology,
“Over the past 24 yr, the land falling tropical cyclones clearly show variability on inter-annual and inter-decadal time scales, but there is no significant trend in the landfall frequency. from Zhang et al., 2009
Chan and Xu write “An important finding in this part of the study is that none of the time series shows a significant linear temporal trend, which suggests that global warming has not led to more landfalls in any of the regions in Asia.” from Chan and Xu, 2009 Proceedings of the Royal Society A, 465, 3011-3021.
Phillipines 1902 – 2005 Annual TLP from 1902 to 2005 using the two definitions shows dominant periodicity of about 32 years before 1940 and of about 10–22 years after 1945; however, no trend is found.” Chan and Xu, 2009 International Journal of Climatology, 29, 1285-1293.
The 1900–01 to 2006–07 trends in the annual percentage of high- and low-extreme snowfall years for the entire United States are not statistically significant.”
Sorrel, P., B. Tessier, F. Demory, N. Delsinne, D. Mouaze. 2009.
France, …no evidence is found of any increase in the frequency or intensity of storms, and in fact, the large storms of southern France seemed more frequent more than 100 years ago. Sabatier, P., L. Dezileau, M. Condomines, L. Briqueu, C. Colin, F. Bouchette, M. Le Duff, and P. Blanchemanche. 2008. Reconstruction of paleostorm events in a coastal lagoon (Hérault, South of France). Marine Geology,
Analyses show that although economic losses from weather related hazards have increased, anthropogenic climate change so far did not have a significant impact on losses from natural disasters. The observed loss increase is caused primarily by increasing exposure and value of capital at risk. Laurens M. Bouwer Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2010
The Robert Wood greenhouse experiment (1909) shows that a transparent closed box can warm up to 55ºC with an upper limit given by: at mid-day, a fully insulated box as above would receive 1368W/m2 solar radiation to reach a temperature of (Stefan-Boltzman law):
T = {1368/0.000000056704}^0.25 = 394.1ºK = 121.0ºC.
Thus heat waves can become very hot, regardless of global warming or position on Earth, IF cooling happens exclusively by out-radiation. Fortunately there are two moderating processes:
1) thermal conduction and cooling by air.
2) evaporation of moisture.
Depending on these two, mid-day maximum temperatures can assume a wide range and become ‘unusual’ if an atmospheric blocking layer exists, little wind and no moisture. In this mix, moisture is of cardinal importance, such that the summer begins only if most if not all soil moisture has been evaporated.
What most people don’t recognise is that ALL moisture comes from the sea, carried landward by sea winds. This transport occurs mainly when the sea is warmer than the land. Just as warm seas and cold land bring moisture, cold seas and warm land deprive moisture. Hence rain begets rain and drought begets more drought, and heat waves more heat waves.
Quite counter-intuitively, droughts belong to a cooling world whereas rains and floods to a warming world. As the world is now cooling due to reduced solar activity, droughts and heat waves become the norm, much like in the Dust Bowl years. Of course cooling is not part of the CO2 scam.
From Some like it Hot, I just changed the first word.
Sugar: CAGW? Isn’t that terribly dangerous?
Junior: I’ll say. I had two ponies drowned under me.
http://www.energy.unimelb.edu.au/uploads/ZCA2020_Stationary_Energy_Report_v1.pdf
This has a lot of alarmist language, but is there truth in it? If Willis or anyone knows how accurate this report is I would be grateful. It appears Andasol 1 & 2 solar-thermal power plants have been successful and the implications would seem to me that investment in this technology in Australia would be a very good idea.
And once again they miss the point in a way that is so devastatingly telling: just because an event or hypothesis is not statistically significant does not mean that the opposite is true. Of course “sceptics” failed to learn that scientific lesson when they started claiming that Jones’ statement, that the degree to which the global temperature had increased was not significant over a decade was interpreted as global temperature had ceased rising or was even falling.
Anthony’s claim I highlighted is false – simple as that.
Instead they present smokescreens and red herrings. Telling.
Regarding DeanL says:
September 11, 2011 at 12:11 am
My post to you of September 10, 2011 at 6:38 pm referenced 7 peer reviewed papers showing no increasing trend in severe events. Please read those words again. “no increasing trends”.
@ Dean L; So your whole problem was with this statement: “Russian heat wave of 2010 which has no linkage to “global warming”? Perhaps he should have said: “Russian heat wave of 2010 which may possibly have something to do with a slightly warmer Earth, yet we can’t pinpoint exactly what that link might be, or even if it matters in the slightest”. Would that make you stop your pouting?
How about instead of nitpicking a headline you talk instead about what the article talks about? So far, all you’ve done is exhibit troll-like behavior, which is indeed telling.
No Bruce, what would make me happy would be if false statements weren’t made in the first place, particularly when the author of such statements pursues the opposition for what he claims are unscientifically based assertions regarding attribution to AGW.
But thanks for you admission.
DeanL: when we’re talking about a natural phenomenon that has happened many times before, the null-hypothesis is simple that the last “extreme” weather event is just that. To claim that it is caused by CAGW needs to be proved. Saying so that it is linked to global warming is therefor simply a lie. Just as all the other claims that we have more extreme weather events; not only because of the lack of evidence, there is even evidence against.
To me, saying that there is a link between ‘global warming’ and the ‘Russian heatwave’ is similar to saying that the aliens will come and kills is because of ‘global warming’. Proof is required and none is forthcoming,
@bushbunny Air pollution was not the vector of those deaths in 2003. Rather people with circulatory problems and elderly who cannot cope with heat very well. Also I doubt Paris reached 45C. The record for the region is around 40C, anything higher than that is unheard of anywhere north of the Alps (where Paris is). The recent heat waves didn’t break the long time records. They might have just touched them here and there.
@gofer: Lack of air condidtioning in many parts of Europe is a factor, but the reason is mostly cultural. Air con is just not very common in northern locations because people didn’t grow up with it, and perhaps they feel it’s not worth it for the relatively short periods of heat. Economy of energy prices plays a minor role. Besides people in northern climates have misconceptions about heat. They open all doors and windows all day because they think it cools the room down. While that is true for most of the year when it’s cool outside, the reverse is true during a heat wave. They don’t get it ..
Anorak2 Sept 12 at 2.22 Well I read that and also disbelieved it too. 45 C is extremely hot.
But the book I got it from was partial towards the AGW mentality. I have the book beside me.
Chapter p.58 – 61 Introductory paragraph – ‘…Paris in August 2003 felt like a city that was being slowly stiflied. With day time temperatures hitting 40 C, streets and pavements shimmered, tar stuck to car tyres and ice cream melted in seconds. Tourists wearing plastic, flip flops found their foot ware disintegrating as they walk..’
On page 60 the temp went up to 45C in Spain and in Southern England on August the 10h the temps soared to 38.5 C – and all time record.
Needless to say, on the front page it does add a paragraph ‘p.58 Heavy Weather (in bold lettering) It is the early morning in Paris, but the air is already thick with pollution. During the heatwave, pollution figures hit record highs. A cloud of contamination from millions of car exhausts enveloped the city, the hot sun turning fumes into poisonous photochemical smog…’
Reader’s Digest ‘When nature turns Nasty’ – How air earth, water and fire have forged our World’ First published 2007 http://www.readersdigest.co.uk.
Actually it is quite a good book really. Although on occasions they put in ‘due to Global warming’.
@bushbunny
With day time temperatures hitting 40 C
40C is credible. It’s probably close to their all time record, but not beyond.
streets and pavements shimmered, tar stuck to car tyres and ice cream melted in seconds. Tourists wearing plastic, flip flops found their foot ware disintegrating as they walk..
That can happen, but it’s not as unusual as the paragraph makes it sound. The sun heats the black asphalt to much higher temperatures than the ambient air, which then melts or causes other things to melt. It can happen at less extreme temperatures, I remember melting road surface on shoes from my childhood in Germany, at lower temperatures and quite a bit more northerly than Paris.
On page 60 the temp went up to 45C in Spain
Spain tends to be hot though. 🙂 I don’t know their record, but 5 degrees hotter than central European sites don’t surprise me that much.
Southern England on August the 10h the temps soared to 38.5 C – and all time record.
Very well, that is believable, but not as sentational as they make it sound. Weather records do happen even without global warming. 🙂 It would be a record even if it surpassed the previous one by only .1C. It would be interesting to compare the second hottest measurement from another year. Southern England has had heat waves in the high 30s before, it is not really out of the usual.