Arlene – first tropical storm of the 2011 Hurricane season

First tropical storm of the 2011 Hurricane season, formed 28 days after the season started on June 1st. See it below. So far, rather disorganized.


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012011
700 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

…TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…
…TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO…


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…21.2N 93.7W
ABOUT 280 MI…450 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI…385 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO
BAHIA ALGODONES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO BAHIA ALGODONES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 700 PM CDT…0000 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 93.7 WEST. ARLENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH…11 KM/H.  A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185
KM…MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB…29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ…WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY…MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE…STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE
COAST…THE SURGE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1000 PM CDT.

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21 thoughts on “Arlene – first tropical storm of the 2011 Hurricane season

  1. Nice rain in SW Florida for the last couple of days. Not so heavy as to run off, heavy enough to soak the ground into the roots. Very nice.

  2. Dang….we badly need this in Texas. Not the middle part, they got good rains just the other day. The Panhandle, we’ve had .5″ since October. Although, yesterday a heat shower popped up, and it was so close you could almost touch it. It sat there. And gave us higher humidities to go with our 100+ degrees…

  3. Arlene – first tropical storm of the 2011 Hurricane season

    To second the sentiments of others: Send it on to Texas!

    .

  4. I was wondering why the rain was moving south to north here (east-central Florida). The radar maps I looked at didn’t show the western gulf.

    We sure needed the rain.

  5. As usual, especially early in the season,we have named storm inflation. There is no circulation in this storm. Just having 40 mph winds does not make a tropical storm. My guess is they do this to exaggerate the effect of global warming on storms, but there is a possibility they do it to make their forecasts come true.

    Tom in Florida: From another Tom In Florida: I agree with you. It has been a long time since we had rain near the coast here in Sarasota.

  6. Mann had 16 +/- 4 using his statistical model. I had 12 +/- 4, using my POOA (Pulled Out Of A**) model. So far I’m closer. Go ME!

  7. Latest Geo-stationary sat IR loop shows strong thunderstorms but very little circulation, more like a tight mid-level low.

    Best,
    J.

  8. Arlene is classified as a storm with wind speeds of only 40 mph? This is not a storm, it is a gale at best as it requires winds of 55 to 63 mph to be classified as a storm. Winds of 40 mph make a lovely day for sailing.

  9. Ian says:
    June 28, 2011 at 10:44 pm
    Mann had 16 +/- 4 using his statistical model. I had 12 +/- 4, using my POOA (Pulled Out Of A**) model. So far I’m closer. Go ME!

    You’re tied. :) Go You.

  10. Hurricane warnings now up.

    “6 PM EDT Update 29 June 2011
    Hurricane Warnings are now up for Mexico as hurricane hunters have found 60mph winds within Arlene, and also forward motion has slowed.”

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