“People underestimate the power of models. Observational evidence is not very useful.”

Guest post by Alec Rawls Andrew Orlowski at the UK Register has an anecdotal account of Downing College’s skeptics-vs-believers mash-up. Ace of Spades pulled the juiciest bit: In short, the day lined up Phil Jones, oceanographer Andrew Watson, and physicist Mike Lockwood, the latter to argue that the sun couldn’t possibly have caused recent warming.…

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Time Travel and Causation in the Climate Debate

Guest post by Craig Loehle, Ph.D. A fundamental principle of physics is that causation is unidirectional in time. An event must follow its cause. Forgive me for stating the obvious, but you will soon see why I begin with such a simple statement. Outside of temporal anomalies in sci-fi movies, time travel is forbidden by…

Introducing the WUWT Atmospheric Oscillation (Teleconnection) Reference Page

Our newest addition is the WUWT Atmospheric Oscillation Page, which includes graphs, graphics and animations of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), the Madden / Julian Oscillation (MJO), Southern Oscillation (SO) and various others. Also, in response to various requests for tutorials, included at the bottom…

The New NOAA Climate “Normals”

With the close of 2010, NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) has commenced calculation of the 1981–2010 Normals. Climate Normals are the latest three-decade averages of climatological variables, including temperature and precipitation. This new product will be replacing the current 1971–2000 Normals product. NCDC is still acquiring data for the year 2010. We expect the…

Wegman paper retraction by Journal

Post updated below – see my own experience with plagiarism by NOAA and how it was solved easily – Anthony I get word that USA Today reports that the caterwaulings of the anonymous Canadian named Deep Climate and his accusations of plagiarism made against Dr. Edward Wegman in the Wegman report to Congress, which later…