A new “low” for desperation ?

Wow this merits a NOAA press release, there’s a low in the Atlantic!

GOES-13 sees an extraordinarily early Atlantic low in the tropics

This visible image of the early tropical low several hundred miles north-northeast of Puerto Rico was captured on April 20 at 17:45 UTC (1:45 p.m. EDT) from the GOES-13 satellite. Credit: NOAA/NASA GOES Project

Hurricane season doesn’t start in the Northern Atlantic Ocean until June 1, but a low pressure system in doesn’t seem to want to follow the calendar. There’s a low pressure area with a small chance for development north-northeast of Puerto Rico, and the GOES-13 satellite captured a visible image of the storm.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook today, April 20, that noted the low pressure area was located about 460 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico at 3:35 p.m. EDT. The NHC noted that slow development is possible over next couple of days. The low is moving west -northwest at 10mph.

The image was created using satellite imagery was captured on April 20 at 17:45 UTC (1:45 p.m. EDT) from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-13). Although it is not easy to pick out the center of circulation in the image, it is located to the west of the largest area of clouds.

GOES satellites are operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The image was created by NASA’s GOES Project, located at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.

The NHC gives this low a 20 percent chance of development into a sub-tropical or tropical storm over the next two days before it hits wind shear, which will weaken it.
###

Here is the advisory from NHC:

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT WED APR 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO HAS DEVELOPED SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR ITS CENTER. IN ADDITION…SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CENTER. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE…20 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NHC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT02 KNHC. ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY…
OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

=============================================================

20% blob threat ahoy:

I wonder, before they started seeing global warming under every rock and behind every tree, did NOAA/NHC issue such press releases?

SST from NCDC doesn’t show much to worry about in that area:

NOAA – National Climatic Data Center – Click the pic to view at source

About these ads

26 thoughts on “A new “low” for desperation ?

  1. Bastardi was talking about this a week ago…or maybe it was Ryan Maue (sorry guys I can not remember which).

    Regardless…NOAA is…as always…a day late, and a dollar richer.

    Notice I didn’t say “short” because their funding continues regardless…whether or not they perform.

    Wow….must be nice to work for the public science sector. Guaranteed income.

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  2. And well organized it does not seem to be!

    Actually, we often look up at clouds and say it looks like something. No harm in looking down and doing the same. This one looks like an angel. The feathery wings are in the 12-to-3 position; feet down in the 4-to-5 position; head over at 9 o’clock with wisps of hair above.

    Seriously, is this the first April Low ever in the Atlantic since the satellite age?

  3. I saw a cloud today. Maybe a contrail. It was very long and narrow. If it had suddenly pointed straight down and started spinning, it could have become a tornado.

    I called Toto indoors and we spent the rest of the day in the basement

  4. “since 1999 the animals are moving up mountain slopes at an average (Basin-wide) rate of about 145 m (475 feet) per decade”
    Now, let us calculate:
    145 m of elevation is about -1.5C.
    If the Pikas represent climate – this means it is MUCH worse than we thought.
    In just one decade the temperature rose by 1.5C!
    We are doomed.

  5. e_por says:
    April 20, 2011 at 10:01 pm
    “since 1999 the animals are moving up mountain slopes at an average (Basin-wide) rate of about 145 m (475 feet) per decade”
    Now, let us calculate:
    145 m of elevation is about -1.5C.
    If the Pikas represent climate – this means it is MUCH worse than we thought.
    In just one decade the temperature rose by 1.5C!
    We are doomed.

    ====================

    If you are being tongue and cheek, then don’t worry about this message.

    But if you are serious, please cite your evidence.

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  6. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWSC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CENTER MIAMI FL
    10:35 PM PDT WED APR 20 2011

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

    A LOW(ISH) PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO HAS DEVELOPED SOME “SPITTLE” AND “DAMPNESS” ACTIVITY NEAR ITS CENTER. IN ADDITION…SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE TRADE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CENTER. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE…2 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW(ISH) CAN BE FOUND IN TROPICAL SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NWSC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER FZNT02 KNHC. ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY…OR CORRECTED FOR CONTENT AND/OR MEANING.

    That seems reasonably better… ;)

  7. Russia expert Paul Goble, who has worked for the CIA and other government agencies, has posted an interesting article. Goble’s article, which is titled “Global Warming Threatens Russian Oil Exports, FSB Study Warns” (6-20-07), reports:

    A new study, prepared at the request of the Russian security agencies, concludes that global warming is likely to make it impossible for Moscow to continue to export oil and gas at current rates and thus over the next decade or more will undermine the foundations of Russia’s economic recovery and international standing.

    Entitled “The World Around Russia: 2017” and edited by Sergei Karaganov, one of Moscow’s most influential political commentators, this study includes articles by scholars from the Academy of Sciences as well as other experts on climate change, economics, and other issues (http://news.mail.ru/society/1330715/).

    Its conclusions are stark: Russia, the newly published book argues, faces a variety of threats from global warming, ranging from the possible influx of immigrants from countries becoming too hot to the loss of access to its oil and gas fields as a result of the melting of the permafrost in many petroleum-rich regions of the Russian north.

    And its authors suggest, neither Moscow nor the international community has the ability to prevent this from happening over the next generation or more, even if one or both were to take all the steps that Russian and Western environmental experts now advocate.

    http://legendofpineridge.blogspot.com/2011_01_01_archive.html

  8. Because the world is going through a cooling phase (aka sun, la nina, etc…), but the tropics are not affected much, the temperature gradient between cold and warm is exarcebated.. thus causing more intense storms etc… for example, last weeks tornadoes in the USA. In fact a cooling world will exarcebate most weather in the 40 degree north and 40 degree south latitudes. Ask any meteorologist.. they know.

  9. Here is some trivia.

    Every month has spawned at least one tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin.
    January 1978
    February 1952
    March 1908
    April 1992, 2003
    At least double figures for all other months.

  10. I’m confused why this appeared in these comments
    “since 1999 the animals are moving up mountain slopes at an average (Basin-wide) rate of about 145 m (475 feet) per decade”
    but
    How can you have a decadal average when you have only one decade?

  11. “Now, let us calculate:
    145 m of elevation is about -1.5C.
    If the Pikas represent climate – this means it is MUCH worse than we thought.
    In just one decade the temperature rose by 1.5C!
    We are doomed.”
    I wonder if you have used the adiabatic lapse rate rather than the environmental, which I think may be appropriate. This would give about 1°C of warming.
    Mind, 145m per decade could just mean they were studying particularly lethargic snails!

  12. So, Anthony, you don’t want to be informed about one in five risks? Clearly you’re not sitting in a boat nearby.

    Global warming under every rock? Ironic bit of projection given you’re the one that has made the connection.

    Bizarre post!

  13. I posted on this a few days ago on weatherbell. Fact is that we had an April Storm in 2003 and Andrea in early May of 2007. If anyone should get the blame for stirring the pot, its me, not TPC.

    Lets remember that tropical cyclones have been seen in almost all months of the year, including a development in late December 1954 then went into Jan of 55 ( Alice the 2cnd) So if anyone is to blame here, it is me and given the chance of quick feedback, borderline water temps ( near 25C) and the fact a low level circulation had developed over 48 hrs ago, I see nothing wrong with TPC outlining this before hand.

    I will take full blame ( or credit) for this, but in the end it has nothing to do with global warming..

    Now what would be interesting is if we had a classified system tomorrow pm, while its snowing and sleeting in the mtns of pa….

    ciao

  14. David Schofield says:
    April 21, 2011 at 1:19 am
    How can you have a decadal average when you have only one decade?

    This is a special decade, David. It repeats itself ad nauseum, so it can be averaged. Don’t forget that climate is also based on this repeating decade, so its validity is also repeated, and repeated, and repeated, and repeated….

    /sarc

  15. This doesn’t seem all that hypeful to me. There’s a tropical low, heck, the NHC reports on tropical waves which is generally what tropical lows come from. They do use the word “special” but that might be because we’re outside of hurricane “season”.

    I get more annoyed at the hype that comes June 1 that immediately precedes the usually uneventful first month or two of hurricane season.

    I don’t have time to investigate why they said “special,” I’m off to the State House to testify in favor of getting NH out of RGGI. I’m expecting it to leave the committee tagged “ought not to pass.” See http://wermenh.com/rggiwatch/enr_testimony.html

  16. I am convinced that NOAA is overzealous in naming tropical cyclones because most people associate the number of names used with how active a season has been. Perception is reality to most people. So to them, last decade ago we didn’t get up the M names every year, therefore there are more hurricanes today. The majority of people do not know about the objective accumulated cyclone energy system maintained by Dr. Ryan Maue. They do know the alphabet.

  17. “I wonder, before they started seeing global warming under every rock and behind every tree, did NOAA/NHC issue such press releases?”

    I think that’s a bit unfair to ask. I may have missed some statements, but the NHC seems to have been one of the few parts of NOAA that has kept itself fairly clean from the hype around AGW. The biggest single event I can remember was Chris Landsea withdrawing from participating in AR4.

  18. They are simply reporting what they are seeing. Any attempts to call this “desperate” would seem to be the pot calling the kettle black.

  19. When you consider the destructive potential of tropical cyclones and the amount of time that we can have to prepare for storms and hurricanes, good on them. I would rather they keep a “weather eye” out for such developments and keep us informed.

  20. Similar “event inflation” going on in metrics for solar activity.

    Improved satellite data lead to sun-specks adding to counts of sunspots

    By itself, not a problem, EXCEPT when people mindlessly use the raw data searching for historical trends. That’s when the cherries get picked for pie-making.

  21. R. Gates says:
    April 21, 2011 at 6:23 am
    “They are simply reporting what they are seeing. Any attempts to call this “desperate” would seem to be the pot calling the kettle black.”

    Don’t forget one of your grandparents was a skeptic.

  22. At least NHC was not sleeping on the job in this preseason, like some other unnamed government agencies have.

Comments are closed.