Wow this merits a NOAA press release, there’s a low in the Atlantic!
GOES-13 sees an extraordinarily early Atlantic low in the tropics
Hurricane season doesn’t start in the Northern Atlantic Ocean until June 1, but a low pressure system in doesn’t seem to want to follow the calendar. There’s a low pressure area with a small chance for development north-northeast of Puerto Rico, and the GOES-13 satellite captured a visible image of the storm.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook today, April 20, that noted the low pressure area was located about 460 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico at 3:35 p.m. EDT. The NHC noted that slow development is possible over next couple of days. The low is moving west -northwest at 10mph.
The image was created using satellite imagery was captured on April 20 at 17:45 UTC (1:45 p.m. EDT) from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-13). Although it is not easy to pick out the center of circulation in the image, it is located to the west of the largest area of clouds.
GOES satellites are operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The image was created by NASA’s GOES Project, located at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.
The NHC gives this low a 20 percent chance of development into a sub-tropical or tropical storm over the next two days before it hits wind shear, which will weaken it.
Here is the advisory from NHC:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT WED APR 20 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO HAS DEVELOPED SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR ITS CENTER. IN ADDITION…SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CENTER. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE…20 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NHC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT02 KNHC. ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY…
OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
20% blob threat ahoy:
I wonder, before they started seeing global warming under every rock and behind every tree, did NOAA/NHC issue such press releases?
SST from NCDC doesn’t show much to worry about in that area: