“Scientists” Pull a Snow Job on Reporters in Teleconference

Some things never change: Cover of Newsweek, January 22, 1996. h/t to World Climate Report

Update: James Taylor’s positionForbes supports our position. A number of alarmists have been organized to team up on the comment section to defend the undefensible. Please add your voice of support to shout them down in the comments section. [Note to Joe Romm – these are Joe’ D’Aleo’s words, not mine, and I don’t condone the practice – Anthony]

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow

As we reported, the eco-pressure group, the Union of Concerned Scientists, as part of a continuing misinformation campaign sponsored a teleconference yesterday with a very confused Jeff Masters of Weather Underground, opportunist Mark Serreze of NSIDC and a UCS environmentalist. Their performance was a scientific disappointment to say the least as one scientist wrote me “Masters lost all my respect. Serreze never had it”. He didn’t mention the UCS. It is the crazy uncle no one talks about.

The Union of Concerned Scientists recall had sponsored a workshop on Mt. Washington in 2007 in which they promised ski areas that snow would be hard to come by even in northern areas and they might consider another profession.  That very winter, northern New England set a record for the greatest seasonal snow and ski areas had the best year in their history. Across the hemisphere that winter was surpassed only by 1977/78, 2009/10. Through January this winter, the Northern Hemisphere had more snow than any of those years and will rank likely in the top 5.

The UCS was not alone in predicting warming means less snow. NOAA in their CCSP and the EPA in their TSD said most cities with winter avergaes near freezing (the case of most metros in the east) would see more rain and much less snow. Recall the IPCC stated: “Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms”. Recall RFK Jr. in 2008 promised DC children would be deprived of the fun of sledding due to warming – of course all-time record snows fell in 2009/10 and sleds and skiis were the only way to get around the DC area.

Now the alarmists have flipped their position claiming warming means more snow although it is a major stretch to think that would apply to Los Angeles, Houston, Dallas, New Orleans, and Atlanta in a warming world. But back to the teleconference.

“Heavy snowstorms are not inconsistent with a warming planet,” said scientist Jeff Masters.  “In fact, as the Earth gets warmer and more moisture gets absorbed into the atmosphere, we are steadily loading the dice in favor of more extreme storms in all seasons, capable of causing greater impacts on society.” “The old adage, ‘It’s too cold to snow,’ has some truth to it,” said Masters. “A colder atmosphere holds less moisture, limiting the snowfall that can occur.”

First of all the winter was colder than normal not warmer as can be seen by this preliminary analysis from NOAA CPC.

image
Enlarged.

Second the global oceans are colder than normal, especially around the United States as seen from this UNISYS SST anomaly analysis.

image
Enlarged.

Third the amount of moisture in the air this winter was below normal (blues) in all the areas that had abnormal snow.

image
Enlarged.

The actual tropspheric precipitable water content from surface to 500mb shows most the tropical atmosphere has over ten times the water content of the polar and middle latitudes.

image
Enlarged.

Marc Morano collated other scientist responses on Climate Depot. He adds (1) tropospheric relative and specific humidity has significantly declined since ‘safe CO2 levels’ of 1948, 2) atmospheric water vapor has declined since satellite measurements began in 1983, 3) there has been no statistically significant global warming since 1995.

image
Enlarged.

The snow resulted from a rapid cooling as we went from a strong El Nino to a strong La Nina and high latitude blocking consistent with a warm AMO mode and a still quiet sun (maybe some residual help from the high latitude volcanoes of recent years). Global temperature anomalies may have plunged more than a whole degree (F) from their peak last summer and early fall. February 2011’s anomaly (UAH) came in as -0.018F relative to the 30 year average. Recall global temperatures lag ENSO by about 7 months. Global teleconnections are most similar to the late 1950s, 1960s and 1970s when frequent snowy cold winters caused the world to increasingly think an ice age was coming.

Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado, said less sea ice in the Arctic translates to more moisture in the atmosphere, and could also cause an atmospheric circulation pattern in polar regions known as Arctic Oscillation.

“It’s still cutting-edge research and there’s no smoking gun, but there’s evidence that with less sea ice, you put a lot of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere, and the circulation of the atmosphere responds to that,” Serreze said.

He would not know cutting edge research if he fell over it. Forecasters were using the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in forecasting temperatures for over a decade. It correlates very strongly with the Northern Hemispheric temperatures and with wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. Even the IPCC talks about the natural cyclical behavior of the AMO (60-70 year cycle). The warm AMO mode which began in 1995 biases the atmosphere towards a negative AO and NAO. It also contributes to less arctic ice as the warmer than normal waters near the Barents Sea work their way under the ice and thin it from the bottom. See.

Before Serreze took over NSIDC seeing the huge grant funding windfall opportunity, an honest scientist in their blog in 2007 admitted the roles of the oceans in arctic ice and the uncertainty that existed in the science:

“One prominent researcher, Igor Polyakov at the University of Fairbanks, Alaska, points out that pulses of unusually warm water have been entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic, which several years later are seen in the ocean north of Siberia. These pulses of water are helping to heat the upper Arctic Ocean, contributing to summer ice melt and helping to reduce winter ice growth. Another scientist, Koji Shimada of the Japan Agency for Marine – Earth Science and Technology, reports evidence of changes in ocean circulation in the Pacific side of the Arctic Ocean. Through a complex interaction with declining sea ice, warm water entering the Arctic Ocean through Bering Strait in summer is being shunted from the Alaskan coast into the Arctic Ocean, where it fosters further ice loss.” Many questions still remain to be answered, but these changes in ocean circulation may be important keys for understanding the observed loss of Arctic sea ice.”

CO2 has nothing at all to do with it. Cold open arctic waters serve as a major sink of CO2 just as the warm tropical waters serve as a source.  Roger Pielke Sr. suggests the ocean heat content (OHC) as a more robust measure of temperature trends. Models suggest OHC should be rising rapidly as the greenhouse gases build, especially in the tropics. Here is the buoy based OHC in the top 300 meters of the equatorial from NOAA (between 5 degrees north and south of the equator) Pacific from 130 E to 80W. During El Ninos, the eastern half is warm and the west cool, in La Ninas the eastern half is cool and the western warm. The fact there is not net warming, instead actually a slight cooling of the entire belt may the most damning proof that global warming is nothing more than a government funded political campaign.

image
Enlarged.

Meanwhile, check out the interesting snow stories as we enter the last quarter mile of the winter season. Ask the people in these areas whether they think global warming is something to worry about.

image
Enlarged.

And Central Park’s snowiest months:

image
Enlarged.

Chicago had a helleva February.

image
Enlarged.

Minneapolis is climbing the top ten list of snowiest winters.

image
Enlarged.

As is Boston.

image
Enlarged.

“Scientists” Pull a Snow Job on Reporters in Teleconference Update: James Taylor’s poston Forbes supports our position. A number of alarmists have been organized to team up on the comment section to defend the undefensible. Please add your voice of support to shout them down in the comments section.By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, AMS FellowAs we reported, the eco-pressure group, the Union of Concerned Scientists, as part of a continuing misinformation campaign sponsored a teleconference yesterday with a very confused Jeff Masters of Weather Underground, opportunist Mark Serreze of NSIDC and a UCS environmentalist. Their performance was a scientific disappointment to say the least as one scientist wrote me “Masters lost all my respect. Serreze never had it”. He didn’t mention the UCS. It is the crazy uncle no one talks about.The Union of Concerned Scientists recall had sponsored a workshop on Mt. Washington in 2007 in which they promised ski areas that snow would be hard to come by even in northern areas and they might consider another profession.  That very winter, northern New England set a record for the greatest seasonal snow and ski areas had the best year in their history. Across the hemisphere that winter was surpassed only by 1977/78, 2009/10. Through January this winter, the Northern Hemisphere had more snow than any of those years and will rank likely in the top 5.

The UCS was not alone in predicting warming means less snow. NOAA in their CCSP and the EPA in their TSD said most cities with winter avergaes near freezing (the case of most metros in the east) would see more rain and much less snow. Recall the IPCC stated: “Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms”. Recall RFK Jr. in 2008 promised DC children would be deprived of the fun of sledding due to warming – of course all-time record snows fell in 2009/10 and sleds and skiis were the only way to get around the DC area.

Now the alarmists have flipped their position claiming warming means more snow although it is a major stretch to think that would apply to Los Angeles, Houston, Dallas, New Orleans, and Atlanta in a warming world. But back to the teleconference.

“Heavy snowstorms are not inconsistent with a warming planet,” said scientist Jeff Masters.  “In fact, as the Earth gets warmer and more moisture gets absorbed into the atmosphere, we are steadily loading the dice in favor of more extreme storms in all seasons, capable of causing greater impacts on society.” “The old adage, ‘It’s too cold to snow,’ has some truth to it,” said Masters. “A colder atmosphere holds less moisture, limiting the snowfall that can occur.”

First of all the winter was colder than normal not warmer as can be seen by this preliminary analysis from NOAA CPC.

image
Enlarged.

Second the global oceans are colder than normal, especially around the United States as seen from this UNISYS SST anomaly analysis.

image
Enlarged.

Third the amount of moisture in the air this winter was below normal (blues) in all the areas that had abnormal snow.

image
Enlarged.

The actual tropspheric precipitable water content from surface to 500mb shows most the tropical atmosphere has over ten times the water content of the polar and middle latitudes.

image
Enlarged.

Marc Morano collated other scientist responses on Climate Depot. He adds (1) tropospheric relative and specific humidity has significantly declined since ‘safe CO2 levels’ of 1948, 2) atmospheric water vapor has declined since satellite measurements began in 1983, 3) there has been no statistically significant global warming since 1995.

image
Enlarged.

The snow resulted from a rapid cooling as we went from a strong El Nino to a strong La Nina and high latitude blocking consistent with a warm AMO mode and a still quiet sun (maybe some residual help from the high latitude volcanoes of recent years). Global temperature anomalies may have plunged more than a whole degree (F) from their peak last summer and early fall. February 2011’s anomaly (UAH) came in as -0.018F relative to the 30 year average. Recall global temperatures lag ENSO by about 7 months. Global teleconnections are most similar to the late 1950s, 1960s and 1970s when frequent snowy cold winters caused the world to increasingly think an ice age was coming.

Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado, said less sea ice in the Arctic translates to more moisture in the atmosphere, and could also cause an atmospheric circulation pattern in polar regions known as Arctic Oscillation.

“It’s still cutting-edge research and there’s no smoking gun, but there’s evidence that with less sea ice, you put a lot of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere, and the circulation of the atmosphere responds to that,” Serreze said.

He would not know cutting edge research if he fell over it. Forecasters were using the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in forecasting temperatures for over a decade. It correlates very strongly with the Northern Hemispheric temperatures and with wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. Even the IPCC talks about the natural cyclical behavior of the AMO (60-70 year cycle). The warm AMO mode which began in 1995 biases the atmosphere towards a negative AO and NAO. It also contributes to less arctic ice as the warmer than normal waters near the Barents Sea work their way under the ice and thin it from the bottom. See.

Before Serreze took over NSIDC seeing the huge grant funding windfall opportunity, an honest scientist in their blog in 2007 admitted the roles of the oceans in arctic ice and the uncertainty that existed in the science:

“One prominent researcher, Igor Polyakov at the University of Fairbanks, Alaska, points out that pulses of unusually warm water have been entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic, which several years later are seen in the ocean north of Siberia. These pulses of water are helping to heat the upper Arctic Ocean, contributing to summer ice melt and helping to reduce winter ice growth. Another scientist, Koji Shimada of the Japan Agency for Marine – Earth Science and Technology, reports evidence of changes in ocean circulation in the Pacific side of the Arctic Ocean. Through a complex interaction with declining sea ice, warm water entering the Arctic Ocean through Bering Strait in summer is being shunted from the Alaskan coast into the Arctic Ocean, where it fosters further ice loss.” Many questions still remain to be answered, but these changes in ocean circulation may be important keys for understanding the observed loss of Arctic sea ice.”

CO2 has nothing at all to do with it. Cold open arctic waters serve as a major sink of CO2 just as the warm tropical waters serve as a source.  Roger Pielke Sr. suggests the ocean heat content (OHC) as a more robust measure of temperature trends. Models suggest OHC should be rising rapidly as the greenhouse gases build, especially in the tropics. Here is the buoy based OHC in the top 300 meters of the equatorial from NOAA (between 5 degrees north and south of the equator) Pacific from 130 E to 80W. During El Ninos, the eastern half is warm and the west cool, in La Ninas the eastern half is cool and the western warm. The fact there is not net warming, instead actually a slight cooling of the entire belt may the most damning proof that global warming is nothing more than a government funded political campaign.

image
Enlarged.

Meanwhile, check out the interesting snow stories as we enter the last quarter mile of the winter season. Ask the people in these areas whether they think global warming is something to worry about.

image
Enlarged.

And Central Park’s snowiest months:

image
Enlarged.

Chicago had a helleva February.

image
Enlarged.

Minneapolis is climbing the top ten list of snowiest winters.

image
Enlarged.

As is Boston.

image
Enlarged.

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71 thoughts on ““Scientists” Pull a Snow Job on Reporters in Teleconference

  1. This reads like more Post Normal Science where facts are mere impediments to the narrative.

  2. In New Hampshire, this winter has been one of the snowiest and COLDEST that I can remember in my 15 years living here. The skiing areas have been doing great! As for the Union of Communist Concerned Scientists and their pronouncement that “snow would be hard to come by” – well, they are clearly idiots.

    Also, I am not going to use the weather underground anymore. There are other (better) weather sites, and Jeff Masters has clearly jumped the shark (though he’s been a manic CAGW believer for some time now).

  3. The main problem with their “more moisture” discovery is, of course, that would this would reduce droughts as well, though I never noticed them mentioning that or discuss anything like the green Sahara of the warmer and wetter past.

    In total, a world with more precipitation would be more fertile and beneficial to mankind. I didn’t notice them say this either.

  4. Who needs peer review, just ask anyone living in northern Canada how much moisture is in the air during winter!

  5. Several problems with this whole nonsense (er, theory) about this year’s “warmer climate = more now + less ice (in the Arctic = more water vapor = more snow …

    1. “Weather” is an instant thing, not a “climate” thing. The United States “weather” blows in from the west-northwest and crosses the US in about 3-4 days. Not years. Days. The “weather” in any particular minute at any particular position on the earth depends NOT on the “climate” of the past 150 years – which HAS been warming by about a 1.2 degree – but on the winds, temperature, humidity and Arctic wind streams of the current three or fours days.

    Thus, the snows of 2010-2011 CANNOT be said to depend on the global average temperature of December or January or February – which HAVE NOT in any case changed from those of 1970 – 1980! Since the weather of 2010 – 2-11 is occurring at the same temperatures as 1970 – 1980, these CAGW so-called “scientists” are immediately falsified and their CAGW theory is proved wrong unless the snow falls and ice state of 1970 – 1980 are identical to what is supposedly influencing the weather of winter 2010-2010.

    2. We KNOW the ice extent in December 2010, January 2011, February 2011. We KNOW the snowfalls, humidity, high-level winds, temperatures across the US, and progression of the cold fronts and winds across the US the past three months. If the esteemed so-called “scientists” at the NSIDC want to pretend to blame these recent snowfall on increased Arctic water exposure, then THEY must show exactly what happened. And when. And why this year’s increased snowfalls did NOT occur in January and February 2006 when ice extent was LOWER than today and temperatures were essentially the same.

    Again. CAGW is falsified by world-level experiments.

  6. The only thing for sure is whatever the weather or the climate they will try and make it say what they want. They are treating the public like fools and the anger of the public is turning against them. People in many parts can no longer afford to keep warm and must cut back on what they are eating – this is criminal – and all the while the green rich get richer!

  7. Sherlock Holmes in 1891: ‘It is a capital mistake to theorise before one has data.
    Insensibly, one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts’

  8. Amino Acids, thanks for the video link. Definitely interesting.

    David Rouse — love the quote.

  9. Ed Waage says: (March 3, 2011 at 9:16 pm)
    This reads like more Post Normal Science where facts are mere impediments to the narrative.
    As a useful side-note on that, Ed; the origination of the term:

    Post-Normal Science is a concept developed by Silvio Funtowicz and Jerome Ravetz, attempting to characterise a methodology of inquiry that is appropriate for cases where “facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent” (Funtowicz and Ravetz, 1991). …

  10. Australian politics is insane. The Federal Govt has appointed Tim Flannery to brainwash the public. The media is still giving credence to CAGW. Summer was cool and wet in southern Australia. Not many days over 40, in Melbourne and Adelaide, and only three days over thirty here in Hobart. Here our hottest day was 34. In summer of 2009/2010 we had ten days over thirty, and the highest was 38. In Tasmania we’ve endured a week of freezing gales, and if March is going to reach its average maximum we’ll have to have a couple of very hot days to make up for this Antarctic blast. Three snowfalls on Mt wellington down to 900 metres. The first one was in February. I can’t remember seeing snow on it so many times so early. This is a good example of what happens when El Nino is replaced by La Nina. A lot of cold weather eventually translates into a cold climate, since climate is described by the same parameters that describe the weather. The people of Oz need to wake up to the fact that various oscillations control the climate, not homo sapiens.

    In Oz we have Professors Carter and Plimer, to name just two real scientists, but the media takes no notice of them. I can’t understand why anyone takes notice of Flannery. He said the rains would dry up, and two cities, Melbourne and Brisbane, now have redundant desal plants.

    The PM says we have to have a carbon tax next year to prevent CAGW. How do we convince ordinary working people that Flannery and Julia Ghoulia are deluded. I tell all my friends that I don’t vote Labor now, that govt. policy shouldn’t be based on green myths, and that a vote for Labor is a vote for Green. Australia is being run by Carbonazzis, and I’m getting madder by the minute. A lot of my friends think I’ve turned into a nutter. Thank God for WUWT, you keep me sane.

  11. The most annoying aspect of these CAGWists is their complete lack (preferentially?) of research on oceanic cycles, of which we’re now in a cooling period similar to the 1945-1975 oscillation:

    http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/SixtyYearCycle.htm

    This, coupled with a lack of solar activity would definitely have the effect described. The Australian droughts here have broken, dams are either overflowing or filling and, this happens in regular cycles, which CAGWists appear to ignore, misconstrue and/or lie about.

    First they say “less snow and droughts”,now they say “more snow and floods”. We’re back to 1974 When Time Magazine lamented an oncoming ice age:

    http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,944914-1,00.html

    No wonder they’re confused, with NASA GISS’ James Hansen blatantly and fraudulently fiddling with temperature figures to send the message he prefers to back – highly likely in order to continue his funding:

    CAGWists appear to think that climate began from their birth and nothing in history matters or occurred, such as Minoan Warming, Roman Climate Optimum, Mediaeval Warm Period or even the Little Ice Age (Also called The Maunder Minimum due to lack of solar activity), which is what we’re recovering from. All this evidence in history is ignored, not publicly reported or simply covered up for their agenda – more funding.

    The general public have been suckered into the “green” ideal as if it’s the only “cause” worth fighting for. Sure, place scrubbers on smokestacks and reduce your actual impact on the planet in many ways, but they’ve forgotten all the basics of photosynthesis. Imagine all plant life mandate for a reduction in oxygen because it feeds fire. Greenies would suddenly jump the fence I’m sure..

  12. Frank K. says: Also, I am not going to use the weather underground anymore. There are other (better) weather sites, and Jeff Masters has clearly jumped the shark (though he’s been a manic CAGW believer for some time now).

    So, got any suggestions? I’m a bit addicted to Wunderground and would not mind an alternative. I have found one site (in a comment on WUWT!) that I used in a posting here:

    http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/02/18/fun-data-temperature-site/

    but you kind of have limited control of it. It’s a ‘way cool’ site and gives interesting comparison sites that show cooling next to “warming” sites in the GHCN:

    http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/02/18/comparison-temperatures/

    But it’s hard to ask for a particular site and isn’t exactly weather oriented… So “suggestions welcomed”.

    @Joe D’Aleo:

    You swing a mean set of data! Nothing like the facts to shoot down a bunch of pompous posturing hypotheticals! Go Joe!

    BTW, I’ve run into this “hot is cold” a few times now (not the least of which was in that horrid movie that used it in the plot… almost enough to make you think folks had cooked up these talking points in preparation a while ago… just say’n…). What I’ve noticed is that not a lot of the public are buying it.

    Furthermore, the ROW is not going to buy it at all. The Chinese have had 2 cold brutal winters in a row, and Korea is even dropping tariffs on food to get more in. It’s cold, crops are failing, and they know it. Russia knows it too. In Latin America we’ve got cold rains and lower snow levels in the mountains. They know cold when they see it… So the only ones listening to this Loony Tune are the folks in PARTS of Europe (not Czech for example), and some of Australia/ N.Z and Canada / USA. Even there folks like the Tomato Growers (and consumers) of USA and Mexico are pretty clear that there isn’t any warming.

    http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/02/17/the-tomato-knows/

    So these folks when they run off shouting that “hot is cold” are just looking ever more loony bin material. Some folks gave them one, or even two, cold winters. “Weather is not climate” and all. But “3 or more is a trend” in most folks minds.

    From here on out, AGW is ever more a “hot potato” that sane politicians will “distance themselves” from. The populations of the world have started taking names and overturning governments. That’s not a time to annoy them, and the smart pols know that.

    It takes about 18 years for a shift of water temps in the Pacific to work its way up from the equator to the Arctic. From 1998, we’re a dozen years in. We’re in the home stretch. From here on out, it’s colder and more ice. After 3 or 4 winters of it, the “Warmers” are likely to be BBQed if they try to convince a frozen person it is due to warming. I’d not want to be in their shoes. And anyone who DOES get their pet project through (such as a Cap’N’Tax as is being promoted in Australia) will be all the more villified after the fact. Just look what is happening to ObamaCare, and we expect to get “free benefits” from it, not just a big fat tax….

    So while I’m not really looking forward to the next half dozen years of colder and more shrill (from the other side) I am pretty sure when the end game leads. And that path is back to understanding that a 60 year cycle is not a 30 year trend…

  13. I’ve lost all respect for Serreze. Hes obviously a non-scientist or a very poor one. I hope you wont be quoting here anymore of ice data. BTW this is good news for skeptics the more idiots making pronounce such as the above, the better.

  14. We have plenty of data Dr Watson. It is a question of who dunnit.
    That is the elementary question that we must be patient to be answered.
    But it WILL be resolved.
    All in good time Dr Watson -all in good time.

  15. like Battye says: if it gets any “warmer”, I’m wondering how in going to pay to heat my flat in winter…

  16. The sad truth is that the average person has a terrible memory for weather, or the changing narrative of fearmongers with it. Most people I talk to can’t even remember the droughts of ’88. That was the seminal year where global warming became a front page topic. ’88 was supposed to be the norm, not the outlier.

    Now, 22 years later and we have “too much” moisture in the air. It’s such a laugh. I hope at some level, people read this and kind of just roll their eyes. In the same way they do when they read nutritional reports about eggs (Good, bad, good, No they are bad again).

  17. “Nigel McDougall says:
    March 3, 2011 at 11:08 pm”

    A politico friend of mine has predicted Gillard won’t be PM by the end of the year, and that we could be in for a double-dissolution election. She has outraged Australian voters by annoucing a “price on carbon”, siding with The Greens to stay in power. Gillard repeatedly denied she said she would not introduce a carbon tax before the federal election. Gillard repeats that “Climate change is real, it is happening and we (Humans) are the cause”. Gillard will support The Greens to allow same sex marriages, Bob Brown will support Gillard for a carbon tax, which will evolve into an ETS. Bob Brown is running and ruining the country at the moment, Gillard is just a puppet. Gillard has stated “Prices will increase. That’s the whole point ins’t it.”, that’s a serious punch in the mouth for the average Aussie already struggling with ever increasing costs of living.

    Adding insult to injury the Australian MSM have been out-doing themselves this week with many articles and commentary about cllimate change and carbon taxes etc. There does appear to be a slight shift in opinion, towards the sceptical, in the comments to many of the articles. If Gillard wants this tax, then please Gillard, take it to an election or show us proof CO2 is driving climate change in a catastrophic and disruptive way.

    And this weekend we have “The Day After Tomorrow” movie sceening.

    Its now 4 days into Autumn, its quite cool. This winter looks as if it coule be a long cold one.

  18. “Men sometimes make a point of honour not to be disabused; and they had rather fall into an hundred errors than confess one.

    But after all, when neither our principles nor our dispositions, nor, perhaps our talents, enable us to encounter delusion with delusion, we must use our best reason to those that ought to be reasonable creatures, and to take our chance for the event. We cannot act on these anomalies in the minds of men. I do not conceive that the persons who have contrived these things can be made much the better or the worse for anything that can be said of them. They are reason proof.”
    Edmund Burke

  19. Nigel McDougall
    March 3, 2011 at 11:08 pm

    Brother-in-law now in Strahan reports that it’s “bloody freezing”, I notice that on the BOM website that the apparent temp is now 1.6 Deg C, and its only early Autumn.

    I

  20. Nigel McDougall says: (March 3 at 11.08pm)
    “Australia is being run by Carbonazzis, and I’m getting madder by the minute. A lot of my friends think I’ve turned into a nutter. Thank God for WUWT, you keep me sane.”
    I live in southern New South Wales and could not agree more with your comments. I wonder when our fellow citizens are going to wake up. I have been collecting articles rebutting the global warming nonsense for a while now but anyone who does happen to get published in the media putting these contrary views is ridiculed. As am I when I put this contrary view. Where will it all end?

  21. Nigel McDougall says:
    March 3, 2011 at 11:08 pm

    Just a minor correction , if I may Nigel.

    I’m pretty sure that the Brisbane desal plant is actually working pretty hard…. to provide drinking water. All the other water is full of ‘stuff’ and is apparently proving hard to treat, Sea water only has salt in it ;-)

    Not arguing about the rest of your post, that’s for sure.

    Gillard is a deceitful lying b..ch, Brown is a sly evil prosperity hating maniac, Oakenshott is just an drivvelling idiot, Windsor is an opportunist a.. hole totally lacking in integrity..

  22. Nigel McDougall says: (March 3, 2011 at 11:08 pm)
    Australian politics is insane. The Federal Govt has appointed Tim Flannery to brainwash the public…

    A minor quibble with that second line, Nigel. I really don’t think the federal government expects Flannery to be able to brainwash us; they simply use him as a “name” to justify conclusions they have already reached. It kinda takes some of the heat off them as they can point to him when it all goes upside down. Rebuild your faith in we, your fellow Australians, who — even though we may slip from time to time — are a stable lot with basic common sense.

    p.s. Do you really have to keep on pushing all that cold up here to Melbourne?

  23. Someone using my name posted something over there at Forbes. Sounds pretty good to me so I’ll quote it.

    “Unfortunately for “science”, it is not clear from the peer-reviewed literature that Dr. Jeff Masters is an active researcher with respect to the topics he is publicly advocating. Indeed, I know of no peer-reviewed literature by Dr. Masters that would indicate expertise in how climate change or AGW may affect snowstorms. Indeed, basic large-scale climate dynamics tells us that extratropical or baroclinic waves should indeed become less energetic as the pole-to-equator temperature difference is reduced — several decades down the road, maybe in 2050 or 2100. However, there is little evidence aside from these hand-wavy, thought-experiment level hypothesis that winter storms have changed — in any way.

    Since these scientists did not publish in the peer-reviewed literature nor really mention any papers that buttress their viewpoints, it is a wonder what was presented was worthy of a press conference? This type of conjecture without solid evidence, data, and a falsifiable hypothesis is at odds with the scientific method. Some would describe it as pseudoscience or junk science. Statements like “snowstorms are not inconsistent with global warming” are laughable because they are akin to straw man arguments. However, the irony is that AGW proponents declared the exact opposite prediction just a few years ago.

    So, if these scientists want to do real science, please publish in the literature on this topic or bring your traveling road show / circus to a meteorological meeting or conference where “active researchers” can assess the veracity of your claims.

    Until one provides some hard data with requisite statistical AND physical significance, in my opinion, Conference calls like this one by the UCS should be given very short shrift and exposed for their blatant political opportunism. It simply comes across as amateur hour there in DC when these eco-liberals start talking above their expertise and level of knowledge. You guys really half-assed it with this one…”

  24. Amino acids – thank you. The video made me laugh out loud, twice. The media and ‘scientists’ quoted in the film can’t have it both ways – they were either speaking utter tripe then or they are speaking utter tripe now.

    The techniques and dishonesty are also evident in both cases – the spectre of just one degree here or there pushing the earth into crisis. And, of course, Man’s evil hand to be seen everywhere (they just changed the storyline).

    This is the videolink to send to any friends and colleagues who remain concerned about AGW (hardly any now in my circle). Personally, I am telling anyone I know when this subject comes up to prepare for at least 30 years of lower temperatures.

  25. These guys seem to be hanging on by their finger nails on a very high cliff.
    They must truly have convinced themselves that this heap of horsedung is valid, either that or they should be locked up in the looney bin. In years to come these antics will revive the “Believe or Not” scripts. Snake oil for the masses.

  26. These alarmists come out with so many claims that either do not stand up to the science or do not agree with the real observable world.
    If they all went to a new universe that obeyed their queer rules the better this universe would be.

  27. animal rights activist/vegan individuals use a similiar tactic, credibility has to be challenged, look for scientific credentials and identify members.

  28. Reminds me of that classic film “inherit the wind” with the Frederick March character becoming more and more apopleptic with rage and more an more ridiculous as the unsound foundations of his ideas and beliefs are mocked by Spencer Tracey until finally his heart gives out.

    So it is with Team-AGW. Finally the people have the strength and confidence to openly mock them, and they become ever more shrill and ridiculous in the defence of their own beliefs.

  29. Nigel McDougall says:
    March 3, 2011 at 11:08 pm

    Agreed wholeheartedly. First time in my life I’m serious about protesting in some, way shape or form against the “carbon tax”. They can’t even get that right…. it’s actually a “Carbon Dioxide Tax” that their after.

    When are the Aussie populace in general going to wake up

  30. Union of concerned Scientists spouting the Al Gore “we predicted havy snow is a result of global warming BS. Now they are predicting heavy spring flooding due to global warming in the US due to the heavy snows this winter. Duh.

    Looked up this group and found this intesting article posted this week (and attached link to the report). THey are saying that the nuclear energy is too heavily susidized (I say regulated) to allow solar and wind to compete fairly… Come on anthony that is good for a laugh.

    http://www.stltoday.com/business/columns/jeffrey-tomich/7d858196-3f7d-11e0-a61b-0017a4a78c22.html

    http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/nuclear_power/nuclear_subsidies_report.pdf

    “Additional [nuclear power] subsidies would also provide nuclear
    power with an unfair competitive advantage over emerging
    renewable energy solutions such as solar and wind,
    which can reduce global warming emissions faster and
    more cost-effectively than nuclear power, and with less
    risk. The nuclear industry already stands to benefit from
    any future price placed on global warming emissions;
    this report clearly shows why any additional subsidies to
    this industry are both unnecessary and unwise.”

    HOBO

  31. Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
    March 3, 2011 at 9:26 pm
    Video about The Coming Ice Age…

    Interesting,

    Este vídeo apresenta conteúdo de UMG.

    A sua reprodução foi restringida em determinados sites.

    Assista no YouTube

    This video contains content from UMG.

    Their reproduction was restricted to certain sites.

    Watch on YouTube

    UMG…..It’s a new story ….. hot music ??????

  32. I travel quite extensively, and meet with people of all stripes. “Global Warming” comes up in conversation from time to time. I must say that of all the slants used by the Warmists to scare the public into believing in AGW, this is the least successful one. I have yet to see anyone NOT role their eyes in derision when you explain that these scientists are saying that warm means cold, and warm means snow, etc, etc. It doesn’t pass the smell test of Joe Public. You only need to be on this world long enough to gain valuable insight into what happens when it is cold and when it is warm. No college degree required.

  33. It would now appear that there is no small amount of panic beginning to appear on the AGW scene. To say that GW results in more snow due to warm air holding more moisture, in a period of La Nina seems perverse.
    This is where the dollar budget becomes the riding factor in all AGW proponents mind set. Time is on the side of the accurate, models begin to show their frailty, sense will untimately prevail. Write to your Political representatives, it takes 5 minutes and costs a stamp, rattle their cages, they do not like it and will make it go away. Blogging is great but they can turn it off, letters piled on a desk are a nightmare.

  34. E.M.Smith says:
    March 3, 2011 at 11:18 pm

    “So, got any suggestions? I’m a bit addicted to Wunderground and would not mind an alternative.”

    Yes – I use http://www.intellicast.com. Awesome radar (100x better than weather underground), and the overall presentation of the forecasts is better. Their severe weather alerts could be improved, but you get the same information.

    Also, weather underground recently “revamped” their site appearance, and now it’s pretty bad – confusing layout and it’s harder to see the forecast for several days in a row. You can still see the “classic” view which is much better, but this change makes it easier to say goodbye to weather underground…

  35. Fernando (in Brazil)

    There;s a Gwen Stefani song in the video. So it won’t play in some countries. I don’t know the copyright laws that determine it. I’ll try to contact the maker of the video. Maybe there’s something I can do, like remake it with a different song.

  36. I’m trying to figure out it the % precipitation as snow vs. rain would be informative.

    I live in Iowa. We usually get a mix of rain, freezing rain and snow during winter. We got roughly normal amounts of snow, but hardly any of the rain/freezing rain we normally get this year. If the warmer=more moisture=more snow hypothesis were true, we should have also seen more rain/freezing rain. That hasn’t happened.

    So the general trend seems to be less precipitation, and the “mix” of precipitation we do see is skewed heavily towards snow instead of rain. That’s all consistent with colder, and totally inconsistent with warmer.

  37. Serreze said “Climate science, like any other field, is a constantly evolving field and we are always learning.”
    Meaning, of course, “we need to continually move the goal posts, even switch to another field if necessary in our heroic efforts to push the CAGW propaganda. It’s a tough job, but someone has to do it”. “We are always learning” is Warmspeak for “We are always spinning”.

  38. Excellent analysis and data Dr. D’Aleo. It is astounding how much of the so-called main stream media ignores the obvious and dishonest flip-flops of the global warming alarmists in pushing the climate fear political agenda. Even more disingenuous are the alarmists tactics of hiding their data and analysis precluding replication of results by independent scientists which violates the most fundamental principle of the scientific process demonstrating that politics drives climate fear science.

  39. Frank K. says:
    Yes – I use http://www.intellicast.com. Awesome radar (100x better than weather underground), and the overall presentation of the forecasts is better.

    Thanks!

    Looks like a nice clean layout.

    Also, weather underground recently “revamped” their site appearance, and now it’s pretty bad – confusing layout and it’s harder to see the forecast for several days in a row.

    Yeah, I noticed that. It looks more “clean” but also very “empty”… and kind of hard to get anything you wanted in the first place.

    Per the “classic look” link, those usually go away after a short while…

  40. The monumental fraud of AGW, like many evil enterprises is going down with all guns blazing, but going down it is, and the rats will be leaving that sinking ship. Watch out for them

    ntesdorf

  41. Another site that might be worth a look is http://www.weathertap.com. Very good radar displays and a clean easy site to navigate. May not have detailed “local” coverage but has good regional coverage.

  42. The political picture in Australia has reached a very interesting stage.
    The PM has been pushed by her need for support from the Greens to stay in power.

    She is clearly acting against her own understanding of the climate, or at least her understanding of how taxes on CO2 emissions will reduce her chances of re-election.
    (Remember she and Wayne Swan forced Kevin Rudd, when prime minister, to drop his plan for a cap and trade system).

    She now fears the imminant collapse of her coalition more than being defeated at the next election which is scheduled for two years or more into the far distant future.
    (Worrying about 2100, or even the long term destructiveness of killing effecient coal fired electricity generation? – you’ve got to be joking).
    Keeping it all together for the next few weeks and months is the urgent subject in focus.

    In the meanwhile, Tont Abbott keeps attacking and attacking and the Liberals / Nationals keep rising in the polls.
    Yes we do live in very interesting times in Ausie land.

    It is quite serious though.
    A CO2 tax, once enacted, would never be repealed.
    The government would never be able to forgo the extra tax revenue.
    Our economy would be permentantly damaged if this hare brained scheme ever went ahead.

  43. Hobo says: “When will the global warming-colding scientists get a clue that they have lost the battle, and the war.”

    When the media flip over in bed and start making fun of warmist lunacy.

  44. Anthony, I am a huge fan and very grateful for all the work you do. However, I really don’t think it is helpful to encourage people to “shout them down in the comments section”.

    There are already claims that sceptics are part of an astroturfing conspiracy covertly funded by Big Oil (I’ve been accused of being paid astroturfer several times, and nothing could be further from the truth). Let’s not give the accusers anything which they could hold up as “evidence” that their claims are true.

  45. That was a comment I added not Anthony. There were a flurry of comments to Forbes that appeared to be a concerted effort to convince the readers that the ideas that ‘cold is really warm and warm means more snow’ made perfect sense. Not everybody in the science arena read Forbes. ‘Shout down’ was a poor choice of words.
    ‘Add your voice’ would have been more appropriate. Romm et al just trying to deflect attention from yet another major embarrassment to the movement.

  46. Please add your voice of support to shout them down in the comments section.

    What for? What difference exposing this particular absurdity going to make to CAGW dogmatists’ stranglehold on mainstream media?

    Blogosphere is a real challenge to conventional wisdom as presented in MSM. And the climate skeptic blogosphere is head and shoulders above the MSM with regard to the climate change issue. Today is just another day. Nothing to be exceptionally upset about.

  47. “In fact, as the Earth gets warmer and more moisture gets absorbed into the atmosphere, we are steadily loading the dice in favor of more extreme storms in all seasons, capable of causing greater impacts on society.”

    Did he bother to reference where he got this “fact?” Was it from a model? Has he measured any moisture in the atmosphere or the change in stomata lately? When will journalists learn to think about what they are told?

  48. The prediction of warmer winters and lack of snow in the Northeast is for the future, when the global temperature anomaly gets to be substantially above its current value of about 0.8C. Climate change is not necessarily a linear process.

    http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/mar2011/2011-03-02-02.html

    “If the climate continues to warm we should expect an increase in heavy snowstorms for a few decades,” Masters said. “But eventually, with winters getting shorter, we may reach the point where it’s too warm to snow heavily.”

    We will always have weather. What we are experiencing today was predicted last fall, by weather forecaster Judah Cohen, who claims it is related to the late melting of Arctic Sea Ice, causing increased snow in Siberia, and a resultant cold pocket of air, due to higher reflection of solar radiation in that region. This combined with La Nina cause a shift in the polar air southward, where it clashed with the moist southern air causing snow storms. The late melt of Arctic Ice is a consequence of global warming.

    http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/28/putting-a-siberian-snow-connection-to-the-test/

  49. eadler says:
    March 5, 2011 at 10:17 am
    “…Judah Cohen, who claims it is related to the late melting of Arctic Sea Ice, causing increased snow in Siberia, and a resultant cold pocket of air, due to higher reflection of solar radiation in that region. This combined with La Nina cause a shift in the polar air southward, where it clashed with the moist southern air causing snow storms. The late melt of Arctic Ice is a consequence of global warming…”

    Utter gibberish clearly written by someone who hasn’t got a clue about how climate operates and the role that the poles play in the heat engine which we call climate.

  50. Nigel McDougall says:
    March 3, 2011 at 11:08 pm

    It’s all about tax dollars, nothing to do with reality. Most governments are happy to play along with the Al Gore gag.

  51. I’ll be submitting an article shortly which will be a story of how I went from being a left-wing greeny eco-tard to a skeptic and then what we can do in Australia to repeat that in as many people as possible. Galvanize!

  52. Tenuc says:
    March 5, 2011 at 1:06 pm

    eadler says:
    March 5, 2011 at 10:17 am
    “…Judah Cohen, who claims it is related to the late melting of Arctic Sea Ice, causing increased snow in Siberia, and a resultant cold pocket of air, due to higher reflection of solar radiation in that region. This combined with La Nina cause a shift in the polar air southward, where it clashed with the moist southern air causing snow storms. The late melt of Arctic Ice is a consequence of global warming…”

    Utter gibberish clearly written by someone who hasn’t got a clue about how climate operates and the role that the poles play in the heat engine which we call climate.
    I did not come up with this theory. I paraphrased Judah Cohen’s explanation. Judah is in the business of making long range weather forecasts, and gets paid to do this.

    http://www.aer.com/news-events/bios/judah-cohen


    Dr. Cohen joined Atmospheric and Environmental Research in 1998. Prior to AER, he spent two years as a National Research Council Fellow at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies after two years as a research scientist at MIT’s Parsons Laboratory. Cohen received his Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from Columbia University in 1994 and has since focused on conducting numerical experiments with global climate models and advanced statistical techniques to better understand climate variability and to improve climate prediction. Cohen develops AER’s long range forecast products for commercial clients who include some of the largest investment firms in the US. He’s been interviewed on television, the Wall Street Journal, Boston Globe, and Investor’s Business Daily, among others. His work is highlighted by the National Science Foundation (NSF).

    If you claim he hasn’t got a clue about how climate operates, it is pretty clear you don’t know what you are talking about. Check out the link that I provided if you want his explanation first hand rather than my paraphrase.

  53. The Union of Concerned Scientists never fails to amaze me. Like the “March of Dimes”, the whining charity (founded ligitimately to help victims of polio in the 1920’s and ’30) which now is the “Mother’s March Against Birth Defects”…the UCS started as an Anti-nuclear weapons group. During the ’80’s, probably at the behest of their “Soviet Masters”, they became also Anti-nuclear power. Unlike the pro-nuclear groups, which always published their funding, and their members (I know, I mailed to the Atomic Industrial Forum, one time, after requesting a member list) the UCS has steadfastly refused to reveal their funding nor their membership.

    A survey of 1800 randomly selected people from the “Who’s Who of American Men and Women in Science and Engineering”, in the 1980’s got ONE response of affirmative to the question, “Are you now or have you ever been a member of the Union of Concerned Scientists. That means that this index, of over 90,000 prominent scientists, Engineering and Science professors, technical managers, etc, would include less than 170 (statistically) who would be members of the UCS. A pretty dismal representation.

    YET the Media continues to give them “credibility” due to their “gullibility”. Time for an “unmasking” of their silliness.

    Max

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