From the truth is waaaayyy stranger than fiction department, we all remember this parody graph of global warming:
As many know, this week at the AMS convention is Seattle, a lot of new papers are being presented. One, from James Hansen is the subject of this story in the Seattle Times.
Note: not THAT James Hansen, but somebody with the same name. I’m sure he gets mistaken for the famous climate modeler James Hansen all the time.
As 3,500 meteorologists meet, one man’s forecast: Chance of pirates
By Sandi Doughton Seattle Times science reporter
Of the 3,500 scientists attending the American Meteorological Society meeting in Seattle this week, only one had a good reason to say: “Arrrrgh.”
While his colleagues swapped probabilistic equations, James Hansen came to talk about pirates.
Hansen rolled out some math of his own Monday as he explained his work to estimate the likelihood of attacks off the Horn of Africa and other hot spots, using weather data and an understanding of pirate behavior.
“Usually, I’m doing theoretical stuff down in the weeds,” said Hansen, a Seattle-area native and applied mathematician at the Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey, Calif. “This is the only project where I can actually show pictures of the impact,” he said, projecting images of Somali boatmen armed with missile-launchers and automatic weapons.
Though news coverage of pirate attacks has waned, the problem has worsened, Hansen said. Last year, there were nearly 450 attacks, with 53 ships captured and 1,181 crew members taken hostage. The estimated economic impact of the raids is $10 billion a year.
Even knowing the general location of pirate bases and their favored target areas, it’s challenging for Navy and other patrol vessels to be in the right place at the right time, Hansen said.
“The Indian Ocean is really big.”
…
The project combines data on wind, waves and currents with intelligence gathered by informants, surveillance and other means on pirate habits: how far their small skiffs can travel; their assault tactics; the timing of forays.
Running the model yields maps that show the highest-risk areas. Adding real-time information on ship traffic can identify possible pirate targets.
“It’s sort of like tornado warnings,” Hansen said. Everyone may know the probability of tornadoes spikes during the spring in Oklahoma. But what residents want to know is whether a twister is likely headed their way today.
Full story here
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Arrghcasting is the new modeling challenge. On the plus side, this may actually be something useful.
h/t to WUWT reader Cris Streetzel
Wow April 1st came early this year.
This isn’t NASA’s James Hansen. Its a namesake.
I was actually thinking the other day that someone should model the number of democratic representatives in Congress. They can input a bunch of variables like the population of the US, the value of the dollar, demographic makeup, etc, etc.
It could be incredibly complicated and almost perfectly backcast the Congress for the past 100 years. Of course, it would be nearly useless in predicting the future due to all the variables left out, but the construction of such a model would be a good demonstration of why climate models are also useless.
I think a much more direct link exists: The probability of a pirate attack is inversely proportional to the numbers of guns on your ship and the size of these guns.
Cool, we won’t have to wait 50 or 100 years to see how good the predictions are.
Oh God make it stop!
This is the moment where, all other things aside, this guy should be canned for rigor ad absurdum. It’s beyond jumping the shark.
REPLY: It’s not THAT James Hansen, I’ve added a note. – Anthony
Okay, where in the linked article does it say “NASA?”
Why, do all philosopher’s names begin with ‘H’ ?
Arrrr … for Hansen, it’s the plank or the yardarm. Let’s vote on it!
So… Piracy is on the increase now? Just a minute… (Jeopardy theme tune plays)
Looked out the window and didn’t see ANY pirates! Is it possible there are unaccounted for factors, like increasing CO2? How about a marked increase in polar bears? Welfare! The availability of welfare has gotta be it. 🙂
🙂
Johnny Depp, where are thou!!!. Pirates of the Global Warming/Climate Change/Climate disruption needs their anchor!
“Hansen wasn’t able to reveal any real data because U.S. intelligence about pirates is classified”
‘Nuff said
Only one way of dealing with johnny pierat and thats to form up into a convoy provide an escort in proportion to numbers and take a damn good run at it.
Worked before.
Weather charts and predictions – wow novel idea that they never thought of using for a shipping lane before?
A bit bizarre to say the least.
But so is the idea of giving priates MORE of our money to ‘fix’ their problems.
That’s my home: Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey. Jim Hansen is doing excellent work — and every once in a while, you get to do something fun that has some very important real-world implications for the military.
Surely, with such a strong correlation, it’s obvious that pirates are the CAUSE of global warming. Though to be honest, I’d always suspected it was polar bears …
A year ago it was global warming causes prostitution! especially in the Philippines!
http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=1351
Maybe the pirates and prostitutes should get together, form an NGO, petition the UN, and start attending meetings in Cancun and Amsterdam, on the taxpayer’s dime of course.
Frankly, when it comes to piracy, the Somali boatmen have a lot to learn. They should take Algore’s training course.
The logic of this sounds pretty straightforward – these are typically guys in fairly small boats, armed with shoulder-fired weapons; you can assume they’ve got GPS and handheld vision devices, maybe some of the brighter guys have navigation radar?
They’ve got to have good enough seas and clear enough weather to be able to find, catch, and board their target.
It was inevitable. Proves that these universities have way to many “Faculty Members” with far too little work and way to much money.
Besides, there’s a very simple and effective solution to piracy. The Royal Navy suppressed piracy in the 18th and 19th Century very effectively with a simple policy of “We catch you, we hang you.” Works for me.
Since David beat me to the statement that pirates cause global warming…
I will say that the solution is to get rid of the pirates. The one problem with this correlation is that the Golden Age of Piracy was during the Little Ice Age. After the Marines hit Tripoli.
After that it was downhill for pirates until recently. Maybe the problem is the lack of Rum in the world today. 🙂
Ok, now I notice the x-axis is inverted, but the number of pirates is increasing now. So it makes even less sense. I think Michael Mann is involved somehow.
and the Seattle Times writes about it. nice.
My unconscious does funny things. Instead of “James Hansen, climate modeller” I read “James Hansen, climate murderer”.
Finally something that is bad and reciprocal to warming.
By that graph, just +0.2C more and there will be absolutely NO pirates left.
( extrapolated but accurate of course, GISS’s JH tells the Navy’s JH )
For pirates,why don’t they deploy technology like this to take out rocket propelled grenades before they travel 50 yards?
http://www.strategypage.com/military_videos/military_photos_20081120174750.aspx
Or they could try the Phalanx
http://www.strategypage.com/military_videos/military_photos_200911270162.aspx
And here was me thinking that pirates are pirates because they are scumbags who can’t be bothered to earn an honest living as fishermen.
My bad…
Being a weather forecaster in Somalia or Yemen must be a rather boring occupation – “tomorrow will be hot and sunny …”. Adding a bit about the risks of pirate attacks to the end of weather forecasts might spice things up a bit.
I wonder if the correlation could be used the other way? Could data on pirate activities in previous centuries be used to work out what the climate was like then?
Shiver my timbers, I think I have discovered a new proxy!
Pirate numbers climb when it is realized that the chances of getting caught become lower. It is about time that we started to shoot back.
This is a coincidence to me. While searching yesterday for odd things linked to global warming I found one link on number watch but it was a dead link. I found quite a few bizzare things but failed on pirates. Here is what I found:
Climate change could be causing cougar attacks
Global Warming Claimed to Increase Asteroid Risk
Expert warns climate change will lead to ‘barbarisation’
Songbirds in the US are getting smaller
Global Warming to Shrink Brains?
…as Britain is plunged into a ‘Siberian’ climate by 2020.
Global Warming: now it hits brothels
[Ted] Turner: Global Warming Will Cause Mass Cannibalism
Climate change is having far-reaching ramifications, even on circumcision rates in Africa
[Australia] …global warming could in fact be driving down overnight winter temperatures.
climate change could spark criminal activities
[Dafur] …global warming may be primarily to blame
Global warming could change Earth’s tilt
Climate change may increase deaths from HIV/AIDS
It’s cold out there – blame global warming.
Climate change ‘could be a fashion disaster’
Women more likely to cheat on vacation
[Uganda] Climate Change Increases Early Marriages
Climate change takes a mental toll
Maybe they’re talking about the Gasparilla Day pirate raid in Tampa this Saturday?
“Climate change may increase deaths from HIV/AIDS”
Does that mean climate change will cause more sex????
We now have a random sample (of two) taken from the universe of all men so named.
They are obviously prone to producing very valuable scientific papers.
/sarc off
I have with great difficulty refrained from commenting on the output of my statistical analysis.
Yo ho ho & a bottle of rum, me hearties!!!
I suppose you are going to tell me the really sad thing is that this is real?
Not as goofy as Wet Office AGW predictions:-“some areas will expereice warmer weather, other areas will experience cooler weather, some aresas will become wetter, some areas will become drier” ! take a pin & stick it in the map boys, that’s real science for you.
IIRC, the Pastafarians claim that the decrease in the number of pirates causes global warming, which is where that graph came from.
As news stories over the last few years tell us, there’s been an upsurge in the numbers of pirates., and “T]he fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.” Hmmmm……
Seems like someone needs to learn the definitions of correlation, accidental coincidence and causation. How many BBC headlines have we seen with accidental coincidences which show up as correlations being reported as causations.
The sure way to know when this is happening is when an article title contains words such as “May”, “Might”, “Could” etc. Rather than “Did”, “Does”, “Will” etc.
“A new expensive piece of research carried out with taxpayers money reveals that Eggs might cause cancer. Here’s our over paid BBC repeater on a jolly to the States talking to the man who is so sure of this result that he chose the word ‘might’ instead of ‘does’. Don’t worry, the flight was offset at taxpayers expense with some dodgy Carbon Credits.”
“Hansen said: “The Indian Ocean is really big.”
Nevah!!
(Is ‘really big’ a new scientific unit?)
Yeah, this is pretty funny, but it’s a bit unfair of some commenters to pick on (this) James Hansen. He doesn’t make any ludicrous claims of correlation between GW and pirate attacks, he’s just demonstrating that integrating short-term (more accurate) weather and non-weather data can bring about useful information that might not otherwise come to light, that could help solve a real and expensive problem. Good on him- if I was a meteorologist this is the kind of work I’d like to do!
@Jimbo –
Apparently you’ve never seen this: http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm
I, personally, view this as a brilliant strategy to demonstrate the lack of credible evidence showing CO2 to be the causative factor in the recent global warming. Pick something ridiculous that has been increasing, (I’ve always thought the number of shoes in my wife’s closet) and make up some complicated model linking your chosen factor with global temperature increase. Act like it’s a legitimate model and laugh at all the suckers who give it credence. Really, it’s not that different than what the current climate modelers are doing.
If I was a ship captain I would post a radar assisted watch with a grenade launcher. When the pirates came calling, they would be toast.
I also think we should use subs to hunt the pirate motherships and torpedo them. After a few Torpedo attacks from an Ohio class sub, the pirates would learn quickly to find other land based work.
Wow. My calender is way wrong. It shows Jan 26, not April 1….
What you fail to mention is that the pirate/global warming chart was produced as a joke by the Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flying_Spaghetti_Monster#Pirates_and_global_warming ).
The said Church is of course a joke religion (also known as Pastafarianism), made up to protest a Kansas school board decision to teach creationism: the physics graduate who started it all claimed that the world was created by a flying spaghetti monster, and he wanted equal opportunity to have his belief taught in Kansas schools. Why Pastafarianism requires its devotees to dress up as pirates (hence the chart) is not entirely clear but hey, why not?
James Hansen of the ‘Naval Research Laboratory’ Monterey? This one does have some business-paid salary to process pirates and the U.S. Navy. And he is within the realm of naval-climate think.. Regardless, there is no short term fix to ‘piracy on the high sea’ with ROE’s created by a politician that has failed, in this arena, to solve the political problem. A long term political fix would to be to have the daily ‘gig line’ inspection with the nagging finger pointing that may fatigue the pirate into submission, alone with some under the table gold. The last time the United States chose to smack a pirate a lethal blow in-about this lat-lon the’Pasha Yusuf Qaramanli’ was involved. A meek US Navy at that time was of little consequence to project power at that distance from the American shore. ‘The shores of Tripoli’. The food handout end result in Mogadishu in the 90’s had some effect to piracy on the high seas. If the guard dog, junk-yard type, is on his chain, there will be the growth in piracy.
Hansen is indeed correct in this matter.
So I wonder if this “James Hansen” is having a good laugh at everybody, and if so shame on the Seattle Times for falling for it.
While reading period texts of the 15th and 16th century it becaume obvious to me that people at that time tried to explain their world’s problems in the context of comets, meteors, and strange celestial observations. For hundreds of years people tried to explain natural disasters from earthquakes to storms, droughts, and floods, plagues of insects and diseases and widespread epidemics by the appearance of strange things in the heavens. A link between weather and the spread of disease was attempted, and the weather itself was linked to celestial observations as well. So it all went back to comets.
The overall theory was that a comet would appear, which would portend a natural disaster or foul weather, which would spread disease and kill large portions of the population. Or the comet would portend a drought, flood, harsh winter, that would kill the crops and cause widespread famine. They attempted to link it all back to comets….for hundreds of years.
I feel we haven’t progressed very far. The Middle Ages are still alive and well. We still want to link everything to the weather and climate. We don’t link the climate to comets and meteroites anymore but have “progressed” to linking it all to CO2 now.
Will it be hundreds of years before we realize you can’t link earth’s climate to a single factor (like the appearance of comets or CO2) and that it’s far more complex than that?
Let’s see, the Marines were created to fight pirates over 200 years ago, the same peoples from the same regions are pirates today… I can say with 100% confidence, there will continue to be pirates! The number of pirates will correspond with certian economic conditions in that region of the world as well as certain criminal activity. Wow and I didn’t need a computer model…
Forecast: cloudy with a chance of pirates.
While the pirates have attacked a Russian military vessel that looked like a civilian freighter, they avoid attacking obvious military vessels. And this system is still under development. And would probably be prohibited for civilian vessels by the same laws and issues that keep the merchantmen unarmed.
The FCS and Phalanx are purely defensive systems. Stopping piracy requires direct interdiction using search and destroy methods. Nothing a traditional 5″ gun can’t handle quite nicely. The idea of using an Ohio class SSBN is ludicrous. It is far too vital a strategic asset to waste on anti-piracy operations (even the ones converted for SEAL team operations). Heck, the cost of one Mk-48 ADCAP torpedo must be greater than the combined value of any 10 pirate motherships. Plus it would be massive overkill.
Nah, combine Mr. Hansen’s predictive model; good anti-piracy patrols by frigates, destroyers, and cruisers; and good ‘ole naval gunfire.
I feel bad for all of the normal, rational guys out there in the World who are named James Hansen.
For those wanting some adventure, there is the Somali Pirate Cruise.
Exactly… this graph is like 2 million years old…
well, maybe 6 years old, or ten, tops.
We can’t use global cooling to get rid of pirates, that would cause NINJA’s cause they are cooler…..
Seriously has it occured that perhaps certian pirates are getting better at their job skills (hyjacking ships and navigation) and that as long as they keep getting $$$$ they will continue to grow their ‘business’. As the Gray Monk pointed out the Royal navy took care of this by hanging. A simlar tactic today might discourage such undesirable activity.
See Youtube for videos of how the Russians deal with pirates. Their Special Forces arrested 17 who had boarded a Russian ship. Now there are 17 fewer pirates and one less pirate ship and no Russian ships have been attacked since.
HE’S RIGHT!
Avast! Gaze ye upon this plundered booty from all collective knowledge!
http://ngrams.googlelabs.com/graph?content=climate+change%2Cpirates&year_start=1900&year_end=2008&corpus=0&smoothing=3
“It’s sort of like tornado warnings,” Hansen said. Everyone may know the probability of tornadoes spikes during the spring in Oklahoma. But what residents want to know is whether a twister is likely headed their way today.”
If only it had been THE James Hansen saying the above. It neatly illustrates the difference between weather and climate. Climate is an averaging of weather records. We aren’t seeing climate change. Our children won’t see climate change. Their children won’t either. Our perspective makes everything look like natural variability and weather, and it is weather which we adapt to and prepare for.
But back on topic…
What happens if the pirates get their own plundering forecasts? If the pirate forecasts lead to ships avoiding areas in certain conditions the pirates will cotton on pretty quick. The pirates then have their plundering forecasts to second guess the likely route of booty. Which in turn leads to a second iteration of pirate forecast taking into account the knowledge that the pirates have their own forecast. And on and on. Presumably to the point where the pirates have pinched a supercomputer from the Met Office and are badly let down when it keeps printing wrong forecasts. To save face the pirates will insist they had actually forecast correctly but didn’t tell anyone when they had in fact forecast every eventuality to different audiences.
Meanwhile the crews of the ships will have been so overwhelmed with forecasts that they just revert to what they should be doing in the first place – being vigilant and being wary of approaching wessels.
I see the theory is gaining traction. I first saw the theory of the Piratal relationship with AGW proposed by someone on Joeuser about 4 years ago. his graphs were pretty and appeared to be statistically significant.
So this Jim Hensen has now followed up on his work! Well Done.
Roy says: “I wonder if the correlation could be used the other way? Could data on pirate activities in previous centuries be used to work out what the climate was like then?
Shiver my timbers, I think I have discovered a new proxy!”
I much prefer bat poop laminae in caves. High temperatures, more insects, more bat poop. Just as good as dendroclimatology. Maybe better.
I thought there was a strong correlation between the number of pirate attacks and CO2! It was inverse for a while in the 2oth century but when that industrial strength CO2 kicked in, pirates really responded on cue returning to duty.
Can someone clever give us an R squared on pirate attacks and CO2 since 1975?
Remember that pirating is not just of ships, eh? Just because some pirates are modern does not make them any less a pirate. There are quite a number on the mainland in Asia…
Perhaps those living in tornado prone areas should construct their homes with bricks instead of straw . . . and have a tornado hardened structure at hand . . . nah, that would be far to practical approach . . . and might not look pretty.
The most ludicrous part is that this guy, as the other Hansen guy, gets paid with taxpayer money . . . and more than likely had his total lack of a “scientific” education paid for by taxpayer money at great expense.
Keelhauling would improve his behavior, I would suggest. If not, string him up by the yardarm.
Unfortunately, piracy is rife today as it was yesteryear, so the date is indeed 21st January.
A quick precis of what is going on is listed below, from a Nautilus UK (seafarers’ union) Bulletin…
“Almost every day seafarers are being kidnapped and exposed to an increasing risk of injury or even death.
Every day seafarers transport the world’s goods through areas where the risk of pirate attack is increasing.
Every day seafarers’ families are suffering worry and uncertainty.
Every day the chances of attracting people to jobs at sea – on which all our economies rely – are shrinking.
Every day shipping companies and their insurers have to pay for increasing anti-piracy measures, extra fuel and ransoms – costs that are eventually passed on to the consumer.
Every day the risk of a major ecological disaster due to an oil spill caused by piracy increases.
Every day the chances of a recovery in the world economy are being jeopardised by this threat to world trade.”
It is only cruise ships that hit the news when attacked by pirates, partly because it attracts media attention with the many hundreds of people on board, whereas a cargo ship, usually loaded with a huge variety of valuable goods may have less than twenty.
Jimbo says:
January 26, 2011 at 1:59 am
Global Warming Claimed to Increase Asteroid Risk
Ok, you do realize that the site is an eco-“Onion”. All their stories have tongue very firmly planted in cheek. Good site though, very funny.
LarryD – Nothing that a few “Letters of Marque” couldn’t cover nicely (Madison et.all., 1787). I don’t see economic improvement untill the local authorities stop looting aid shipments and stop protecting pirates &c.
Can we ‘back cast’ the venganza.org graph (vide supra) to determine the current global temperature? We need to get a census of the pirates. Oh yeah – that would be bad for my health…
Tom
Oh it’s global warming that causes pirates. I guess the opportunity to extort $10 billion had nothing to do with it.
Arrrr, Jim lad, ‘twern’t done this way when I were a young ‘un!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/piracy/8274541/South-Korean-commando-raid-kills-eight-Somali-pirates.html
FYI, The US is one of the few developed counties that hasn’t forsworn Letters of Marque and Reprisal. But for the US to issue one is literally an Act of Congress.
According to this site, Spain in 1729 did issue Letter(s) of Marque against pirates. The last time Congress issued Letters of Marque was during the War of 1812.
Folks, I know that from your comfortable laboratories/homes/offices, this seems quite a joke, but it isn’t.
Several seafarers have been killed – mostly by ‘rescue missions’.
As noted, nearly 2000 seafarers were taken hostage last year, typically spending months in captivity, with no certainty of release . . . . ..
Estimated cost of piracy – for 2010 – was 7-12 thousand million dollars [US]. Shipping accounts are usually in dollars US.
Those dollars will appear on your [our] supermarket and gas staion [garage] bills.
Have you ever tried hitting a pirate skiff with a fire hose, let alone a torpedo or a bazooka? They’re a damn sight more manouuvrable than a merchant ship – which may carry 19 to perhaps 32 seafarers [excluding cruise ships]. Many of those are on $3-7 an hour [with food thrown in]. Vigilance for three days is difficult, especially if nothing has happened for your last three – or six, or whatever . . . . – transits of the danger area.
Complancency rules – or might.
Oh, and having a warship anywhere near – say within a day’s run, about 500 nautical miles, or 570 land {statute] miles – the latest attack [outside the Gulf of Aden, which is reasonably well covered] is like having a squad car near a ram-raiding or car jacking – when you have precisely thirty-one cars to cover the Lower 48 of the USA (or one car, sixteen hours a day to cover the entire UK; England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales [the Channel Islands, and the Isle of Man get visted for an hour each, twice a year].
Your fast rsponse is – where, precisely?
Do think carefully about that, please.
The cause of piracy – dunno.
But it is mostly ashore.
Somalia has had no government to call the name for almost twenty years. No stupid regulations on ‘Artificial Optical Radiation’ is a plus, but – allegedly – allowing foreigners to pillage your fishing grounds – so fishermen are suscepitble to warlords’ pleas [with iron fist] to – ah – ‘permit’ piracy may be a down.
Piracy is complex.
Piracy is a ‘good business model’. Sorry – for the ‘Mister Big’ personages, that is a fact.
These we know.
We do not really know the terror -and the fear fatigue – caused by a successful pirate hijacking.
As a ship operator, by the way, I w i l l pay the ransom. Where will I get my next crew if I didn’t?
Think – please . . . .
Will your government resort to the Press-gang to man my ships?
[That is a rhetorical question. Of course.]
Give the folks in shipping a chance to put their side of this – nasty – situation, please.
And thank your gods that none of your relatives is sailing in the Somali basin or the Gulf of Aden tonight.
Cheers.
Actually, the pirates are quietly tapping away on
forms for even more studies and grants to “prove”
global warming (or it’s variant namesakes) exists,
is dangerous, and can be overcome or reversed
if such-and-such program or process is implemented
using public funding.
The hearty tars on the Pinafore just won’t give up
the ship.
Well, at least this prediction seems plausible…
This graph is one of the icons of the church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster.
http://www.venganza.org/posters/
Has been from the start. Including the really cool x-axis ordering.
May you be touched by His noodly appendage.
This is probably one of the best ideas I have seen in a long time. Most of those oceanographic and atmospheric modes are not worth a pinch of coon shit except for a fairly restricted period of time. We know behavioral models work rather well, again on the short term. Makes sense to me. I think this Dr. Hansen deserves some credit for imaginative thinking unlike the creative stuff for that other fellow.
Sure. One more chart without error bars. What are they trying to hide?
Just wondering if he’s also a Pastafarian….