NASA’s Terra Satellite Images Minnesota’s Blizzard Aftermath

From Science @ NASA.gov

The upper Midwest was hit by a powerful winter storm this past weekend as more than 17 inches of snow brought down the roof to the Metrodome football complex (link added by WUWT)  in Minneapolis. NASA’s Terra satellite flew over the upper Midwest the next day and captured an image of that snowy blanket left behind.

When NASA’s Terra satellite flew over the upper Midwest on Sunday, Dec. 12 the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument captured an image at 17:20 UTC (12:20 p.m. EST). The MODIS Image was created by the MODIS Rapid Response Team at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.

Have a look:

image of snow-covered Midwest based on satellite data › Larger image (10 MB jpg)

The image clearly shows the snowy blanket on the ground that covered South Dakota, southern Minnesota, eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin and Indiana. In the satellite image, northern Minnesota appears darker because there was less snowfall. The snow storm mostly affected the lower half of the state, which appears as a brighter white in the image.

The National Weather Service (NWS) reported that 17.1 inches of snow fell in Minneapolis and St. Paul, Minnesota on Saturday. Some of the suburbs of the twin cities reported as much as 21 inches of snow. NWS also noted that 60 mph wind gusts caused high snow drifts there and the Minneapolis airport was even closed for several hours on Dec. 11.

On Sunday, Dec. 12, the National Weather Service had issued blizzard warnings for northwestern Illinois, eastern Iowa, northern Michigan, and southeast Wisconsin. Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota and South Dakota reported road closures due to snow and accidents this weekend. On Monday morning the cleanups continued.

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68 thoughts on “NASA’s Terra Satellite Images Minnesota’s Blizzard Aftermath

  1. Ahh global warming at it’s best. It brings out the “A few cold days doesn’t disprove AGW is happening” crowd

  2. Geez, thanks. Just what I needed another perspective on the Hi-Res view I’ve been enjoying out my front window. I WANT MY GLOBAL WARMING BACK!!!

  3. The warmists have got this all sorted. It’s called Climate Chaos. Anything that is even vaguely out of the ordinary can be put under this tag and blamed on AGW.

  4. “Marcus71 says:
    December 14, 2010 at 1:44 am”

    Exactly! What (Temperature) is not out of the ordinary (Normal)? In every conversation I have with an AGW supporters I ask what IS normal (For Earth)? The answer I normally receive is the “norm” for planet Earth is the 1960 – 1991 average. Which is of course Mannufactured and totally meaningless.

  5. What don’t you people understand about “precipitation”? Water from the sky, be it rain, hail or snow, are different aspects of the same issue, and cause the same manner of problems to the Postal service.

    Anthropogenic Gloal Warming causes an increase in global precipitation, as well as an increase in hurricane numbers and intensity, teenage pregnancies, and a whole host of other scientifically attributed effects of carbon pollution.

    It is time to ignore the Big Oil shills, and save our childen and grand-children.

  6. Actually, northern Minnesota is darker as that is all forested, mostly different varieties of Pine (southern portion of the Taiga). The trees, although assisting in keeping the wind down for some brutal morning temperatures will, because of albedo affects, allow that area have some of the warmer afternoon temperatures then other areas. That influence is most pronounced in late January through early March.

  7. “Kaboom says:
    December 14, 2010 at 2:32 am”

    Explain the 1940’s and 1970’s cool periods with increasing CO2 concentrations.

  8. Interestingly a scientist in the German Met Office has said that the evidence of the last three extremely cold winters suggests a mini Ice Age may be on the way…

    Won’t it be fun watching the AGW mob explain that if it happens?

  9. *Yawn*

    Very nice. Already had 2 – 3 feet plus of snow this month and it’s up and started again with about another foot and a half coming to the area near Buffalo where I’m stuck.

    Is it Spring yet?

  10. While you weatherman are getting your Santa tracking radar setup and calibrated this year, do you think you modify it to track Big Al?

  11. Hmmm. What I called an “impact crater” is not on the database. There is a small one, “Rock Elm” which is 6km in diameter a few miles to the northwest, but the big ring about 100 km diameter is not in the database (nor are the two fainter rings).

    Does anybody know what these structures are if not impact craters?

  12. Patrick Davis, check out Kaboom’s blog; I think you’ll find the answer there (parody, irony is sometimes the best retort to AGW)

    .

  13. Kaboom says:
    December 14, 2010 at 2:32 am

    I was ready to write it off as another AGW rant, then I read the “teen pregnancies,” and almost ruined my keyboard!

  14. The Gray Monk says:
    December 14, 2010 at 3:25 am

    Interestingly a scientist in the German Met Office has said that the evidence of the last three extremely cold winters suggests a mini Ice Age may be on the way…

    Do you have a link to that story?

  15. I was telling my Grand-kids that “In the olden-days (15 years ago), Grampa would barbeque a big standing rib roast and his patented Bison-Bacon-Bites for Christmas dinner but now because of Global Warming, it’s far too cold and the snow is far too deep for that, so we’re stuck with Grama’s Turkey”. Oh Woe is us (in beef country).

  16. Visual Orientation
    The dark projection in the upper right is Lake Superior where Duluth, MN and Superior, WI are at the point. The Minnesota River is very prominent in the middle where it flows southeast to Mankato and takes a sharp turn to the northeast to Minneapolis/St. Paul and flows into the Mississippi. Following the Minnesota River upstream also shows the area of Brown’s Valley where the Minnesota west boundry has its dimple about halfway between Canada and Iowa. In the lower right of the photo the rivers flow southeast into the Mississippi near the edge of what appears to be cloud cover. Finally, the Missouri River shows up on the left side with reservoirs prominently displayed.

  17. Interestingly a scientist in the German Met Office has said that the evidence of the last three extremely cold winters suggests a mini Ice Age may be on the way…

    Won’t it be fun watching the AGW mob explain that if it happens?

    True Believers aren’t able to admit they are wrong. They will go to any length, invoke any and every possible contortion of logic, to explain how they are right, despite the evidence staring them in the face. This has always been the case, and AGW Believers are no different. It’s almost guaranteed that they would blame an ice age on AGW.

  18. More coming, compliments of the Pacific. And this cold front may be wetter than the last one. When it hits the AO blast further East, you guys are gonna be in BLIZZARDS with capital letters! Right now, the pass above Pendleton, Oregon is getting re-covered with global warming described as coming down “hard and continuously”. And that’s just the leading edge. Behind that, the Cascades are getting dumped on with major Global Climate Disruption stuff. It’s like the snow plow is up in the clouds dumping on the mountains below!

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/?wfo=pqr

  19. One of our problems in Minnesota is snow typical stays until March. So, we will get to look at this stuff for quite awhile. To add to the fun I had a temp of -19°F this AM.

    The guy that plows out our little development got stuck and we couldn’t get out for almost 24 hours after the snow stopped. The roads are still packed snow as it’s too cold for even salt to melt it. Supposed to get up to 22°F later in the week … now, where did I put that barbecue …

  20. It is a La Nina cold PDO Driven winter- I’m not a forecater but simply experienced in life, closest I came was a NOAA weather observer back in the 70’s which this year is reminding me of. Hmmm…
    I gotta go collect my check from Exxon. -haven’t got it yet…

  21. The schools in the Twin Cities metro area are closed for the second day in a row. This is four days after the event. The main issue is that some of the streets haven’t been fully plowed yet leading to uncertain arrival times for the school buses. With the air temps during the early morning being sub zero F (~ -20 C) it’s hazardous for the kids to be waiting around the street corners for too long.

    Personally have been digging snow for parts of the last three days and I am tired. First you dig out your paths and driveway, then the snow plows come to plow the streets and seal them off again with 3 foot high wall of compacted snow. Then you dig them out again then the snow plows come back to tidy up the street corners etc and shazam they seal them off again. Enough already and it’s only December…….

  22. Actually, there is just about as much snow on the ground in northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisonsin as in the southern part of Minnesota (Duluth has 16 inches, Minneapolis 17 inches). The image shows up darker to the north because there are more trees.

  23. I think Kaboom has taken the p!ss with a couple of you. I’m certain his tongue was planted firmly in cheek — the reference to teenage pregnancy as a result of increased ‘carbon pollution’ was my first clue. ;)

  24. Isn’t a cold Eastern half of the US typical during a La Nina event?

    La Nina puts a prevailing dip in the jet stream from the colder regions up north down to the southern states of the East, like Arkansas and Tennessee.

    But for us here in Colorado, it’s been quite mild (except for the folks in the mountains, who have seen a couple of blizzards already).

  25. Dave Wendt — Geez, thanks. Just what I needed another perspective on the Hi-Res view I’ve been enjoying out my front window.

    Think it’s bad now? Just wait until Gore shows up to do a speech at the Metrodome. Meanwhile Shakopee got 22″ and my guess is that 25% of the renaissance festival site will need rebuilding (no code to follow there.)

    Kaboom — teenage pregnancies,

    ROFL!!

    I’m thinking very few read that part.

  26. I have a question about the image itself. What produces the long thin, very straight lines that run E&W and N&S? Are these grid lines imposed on the image or are they really some kind of man-made surface feature?

  27. Some of you should look at what is going on , on the Canadian east coast for the past two weeks. Record highs, record high tides, millions of damage caused by record heavy rain and high tides. And the warm temps are spreading very far north. There’s no snow on the east coast . It’s mid december and there’s no ice – not even drifting ice blocks way up north.

    If some of you are experiencing cold weather (by the way snow does not means it’s colder), elsewhere it is totally the opposite. Almost no ice on Hudson’s bay by mid december – that is very unusual. No ice at Kujjuak’s bay and Kimmirut’s Bay – that has never been seen for mid december. No ice fishing up in the northeast, still fishing by boat.

    Last night and today, they got snow (at last) and normal cold weather, but the forecast is rain and warm weather again for the next few days. Tell me climate is not disturb.

  28. Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
    December 14, 2010 at 5:21 am
    I thought “global warming” says winters will start later not sooner.
    ==============================================
    Yep, the whole migrating sooner, longer growing seasons, etc

    Chalk another prediction up to being wrong……..

  29. alan says:

    “I have a question about the image itself. What produces the long thin, very straight lines that run E&W and N&S? Are these grid lines imposed on the image or are they really some kind of man-made surface feature?”

    The only lines I see on the image are wisps of thin cirrus clouds over the snow cover, rivers where there are no clouds, and lake effect clouds coming off Lake Superior and Lake Nipigon.

  30. Regg_upnorth says:
    December 14, 2010 at 7:25 am

    Some of you should look at what is going on , on the Canadian east coast for the past two weeks. Record highs, record high tides, millions of damage caused by record heavy rain and high tides. And the warm temps are spreading very far north. There’s no snow on the east coast . It’s mid december and there’s no ice – not even drifting ice blocks way up north.

    Tell me climate is not disturb.

    It’s not disturb. This is all part of the extremely negative Arctic Oscillation, last winter and this one so far. Atlantic storms get pushed NNW into Canada and bring lots of heat and moisture. And lower heating bills. Yay! And less snow. Boo – I have a new snowblower that hasn’t been tried out yet.

    Things get back to cold on the eastern side of Greenland.

  31. Is that a circle I see ESE of Minneapolis/St Paul? Could it be a crater? On google maps it seems to be bounded by: Eau Claire on the north, Black River Falls on the east, and the Mississippi River on southwest.

  32. This is why we Minnesotans are for global warming. Usually, the winters are very cold and snowless in Minnesota. This reminds me more of Michigan’s Upper Penninsula where there is a lot of lake effect snow.

    The worst of it is that it isn’t even winter yet.

  33. Note the bands of “lake effect” snow off Lake Superior onto the UP of Michigan. Lake effect can pile up huge snow totals. In ’95 (I think) Sault Ste. Marie, Mi got 60.1 inches of snow starting late Friday-Sunday morning. This storm put over 4 ft on London, ON.

  34. “Regg_upnorth says: Tell me climate is not disturb.”

    Yes the truth is that for all the fun with weather we have here it isn’t climate. The variation you cite (warm coasts and snow dumps in the middle) is not unusual in any way. It can happen and does. If you follow the jet stream you can see the massive cold blob down the middle of the continent and the coasts spared.

    http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weathermaps/?ref=topnav_homepage_weathermaps

    I highly suggest you check out the ice core and solar info on this site which is very informative about climate (not weather). For starters this one is one of my personal favourites

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/09/hockey-stick-observed-in-noaa-ice-core-data/

  35. alan says:
    December 14, 2010 at 7:16 am

    I have a question about the image itself. What produces the long thin, very straight lines that run E&W and N&S? Are these grid lines imposed on the image or are they really some kind of man-made surface feature?

    Aside from the black lines which are indicative of the state borders, there is a fainter grid of n/s and e/w lines which is actually the road network. It shows up particularly well in western Minnesota.

  36. Pamela Gray’s next storm is due to hit Colorado Wed into Thurs and produce record snowfall in the mountains (you are very happy this winter if you ski). La Nina is keeping the Colorado plains warm and dry, yeah! We MAY get a couple of inches of snow Thurs night.

    Snow in the mountains for skiers and the water supply with dry streets down here is the perfect combination.

  37. alan @ 7:16 am
    I have a question about the image itself. What produces the long thin, very straight lines that run E&W and N&S?

    State boundaries.

  38. MORE:

    alan @ 7:16 am
    I have a question about the image itself. What produces the long thin, very straight lines that run E&W and N&S?

    State boundaries.

    Review MODIS “rapid response system” here: http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/

    Click on Gallery

    For image #346 of 12/12 there is a smallish image (thumb-nail) and in it the state boundaries are apparent. Iowa is in the center. Bring up Google Earth at the same time and you can easily follow the “visual orientation” provided by Warren at 5:56 am.

  39. HankHenry lowercasefred

    impact crater?
    Bring up Google Earth and center on 44.4184, -91.3886. Zoom until the Eye alt is under 200 km.

    Also, search on “driftless area” and read about this area. This is part of an older surface [link below] than that left by the glaciers (drift) of the past.
    Now zoom in on “Nelson” at 44.4206, -92.0085.
    Follow the Chippewa River to the north and east.
    Thus, the area in question is higher than the region of the circle and is not a crater. For more info, look here:

    http://www.uwgb.edu/dutchs/GeologyWisconsin/geohist/wiosinp.htm

  40. What is the point in reporting these cold extremes as counter-examples to global warming?

    Global warming is GLOBAL!

    These are just LOCAL or REGIONAL weather events, driven by a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), a well known natural climate variability. Negative AO brings cold air to the mid-northern latitudes, but also warm air to the Arctic Ocean, Greenland, Northern Canada and Eastern Siberia, as is evident in this NOAA map:

    http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_07b.fnl.html

    Talking about the GLOBE , 2010 is so far the warmest year on record in the NOAA and GISTEMP dataset, and tied with 1998 as the warmest year in the satellite temperatures dataset (RSS and UAH). HADCRUT is in the lower range of warming, beacuse it has the flaw of excluding the Northern Arctic latitudes.

    This a very warm year, completely consistent with the prediction from climate models.

  41. I hope it is recognized Kaboom was being sarcastic – I’m sure even AGW supporters don’t purport AGW as causing an increase in teen pregnancies

  42. Whiel I sympathize with Minnesotans (not really – they CHOSE to live there), we have already had 2 measureable snows here – and we usually never get any in this month (we had two big ones last year as well). Our area though is on a dividing line such that half the time (well over the past 30 years) we get sleet and rain, and the other half we get snow. So both snows were almost totally unpredicted! I say almost totally since they did forecast a possible flurry, not the 2 inches we got.

    If Global Warming gets any worse, we will be snowed in next year from December to March!

  43. from mars says:

    What is the point in reporting these cold extremes as counter-examples to global warming?

    Global warming is GLOBAL!

    Thank you for pointing that out. Now can you please point out that same fact with reference to the Russian heat wave last summer while South America was experiencing Antartic conditions?

  44. To TimM
    Yes the truth is that for all the fun with weather we have here it isn’t climate

    I know it’s not climate – that’s why i mentionned it. Many of the comments here are bashing about ”where’s my global warming” because they got a snow storm. Well that’s the point – neither there snow storm or the east coast warming is relevant to climate – bash about the weather anytime, it’s not climate (yet).

  45. latitude says:
    December 14, 2010 at 7:41 am

    Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
    December 14, 2010 at 5:21 am
    I thought “global warming” says winters will start later not sooner.
    ==============================================
    Yep, the whole migrating sooner, longer growing seasons, etc

    Chalk another prediction up to being wrong……..

    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

    Gladly.

  46. Wow, nice 10 MB photo….if you follow the Missouri down through SD to the last lake and last dam, then go about 1 inch to where she jogs South again, I’m about a half inch to the NE.

  47. Will you LOOK at those lake effect convection streamers passing over Lake Superior!

    Spectacular. Its like a giant hand with fingernails scratching across the surface.

    Notice that convection extending WAY south over the snow cover, too.

    Lake effect snow is one of the most fascinating and august meteorological phenomena on the planet, no doubt.

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  48. Northern Minnesota is darker because it’s completely forested, and many of those trees are evergreen conifers. Like a previous poster said, it shields us from the wind and brings us those frigid temps you always hear about. It was -33˚F yesterday morning in International Falls, and -22˚F here. I can assure you we have snow.. about 15 inches of it.. on the ground. And it’ll stick around until the end of March.

  49. Jantar:

    You are right. No single weather event, heatwave or cold spell, can be used to prove or disprove Global Warming.

    But MORE EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS ARE EXPECTED AS A CONSECUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE.

    With Global Warming, there is more energy in the Climate System. With more heat, more waper vapor. So heatwaves become hotter and more common, droughts become drier, and precipitation more intense.

    Remember, more intense precipitation events. In summer, this means extreme rainfall. In winter this means extreme snowfall: more super blizzards!

    A reminder that this was predicted a while ago is this 1997 documentary on the Discovery Channel: “Raging Planet: Blizzard”


    (see the mention of Global Warming on 4:39 “Global Warming is taking hold.As the Planet gets warm, all the forms of extreme weather, hot and cold, will become more common. Blizzards will come across the polar areas with ever incresing ferocity”)

    And:

    (see from 5:40)

    By the way, I live in Peru, and I received the blast of polar air that brought extreme cold to Chile and Argentina. Lima received a relatively mild impact compared with Buenos Aires or Santiago, but last season was one of our coldest winters. It was no surprise, since we were entering a moderate to strong La Niña, and Peru is the “ground zero” of ENSO. This, combined with a strongly positive Antarctic Oscillation, caused the cold spell.

    You are now suffering the effect of the swing in the Arctic Oscillation towards the negative phase, as happened one year ago.

    There is also the possibility that Global Warming is altering the behaviour of the Polar Oscillations. In particular, Arctic sea ice reduction means more heat liberated in Autumn and Winter from ocean trought the thinning ice. More heat means warmer air (this means warming causes melt that causes more warming, this is called “Arctic Amplification”) that favour high pressure over the Arctic, driving the Arctic Oscillation toward the negative phase. Negative AO means cold weather in Europe, Western Siberia and continental USA , and warm weather in Canada, Greenland, East Siberia and the Arctic Basin.

    These effects are still not well understood, but one thing is sure: there was a clear warming trend since the 1970s, and this warming trend has continued unabated to the present. 2010 is so far the warmest year in the GISTEMP and NCDC datasets, second warmest in HADCRUT and RSS datasets, and tied with 1998 as the warmest year in the UAH dataset.

  50. lowercasefred says:
    December 14, 2010 at 4:26 am
    Hmmm. What I called an “impact crater” is not on the database. There is a small one, “Rock Elm” which is 6km in diameter a few miles to the northwest, but the big ring about 100 km diameter is not in the database (nor are the two fainter rings).

    Does anybody know what these structures are if not impact craters?

    fred, Not totally sure what you are looking at but here in Minnesota our license plates carry the motto…land of ten thousand lakes. Check out Mille Lacs Lake, a excellent walleye fishery, it might be your crater.

  51. lowercasefred says:
    December 14, 2010 at 4:14 am

    The snow makes the impact crater about 160 miles south of Lake
    Superior show up nicely.

    And follows up with:

    lowercasefred says:
    December 14, 2010 at 4:26 am

    Hmmm. What I called an “impact crater” is not on the database. There is a small one, “Rock Elm” which is 6km in diameter a few miles to the northwest, but the big ring about 100 km diameter is not in the database (nor are the two fainter rings).
    Does anybody know what these structures are if not impact craters?

    With another observant reader noting:
    HankHenry says:
    December 14, 2010 at 9:05 am

    Is that a circle I see ESE of Minneapolis/St Paul? Could it be a crater? On google maps it seems to be bounded by: Eau Claire on the north, Black River Falls on the east, and the Mississippi River on southwest.

    The one crater ESE of the Twin Cities area may be the Grover
    Bluff crater. However, the photo make it appear much larger than the
    8 mile diameter credited to the Grover Bluff Crater.

    If you look closely like lowercasefred did, the larger crater has a series
    of two more “ghost craters” overlapping it toward the northeast.
    These have been so scraped smooth By the various glaciers as to have
    been heretofore unidentified.

    The small crater toward Eau Claire could be the 8 mile Rock Elm crater
    HanHenry mentioned… but maybe not. Other “rings” defined by
    semicircular river courses or swamps and drainage patterns show up
    in the photo too.

    Please see the Wisconsin relief map:

    And the ImpactDataBase map for North America:

    http://www.passc.net/EarthImpactDatabase/NAmericaRED.jpg

  52. There are other possible astroblemes in the image besides the one being talked about. That it is higher than surrounding terrain means nothing – pedestal craters are common. I’ve notice that a large number of lakes in southern Minnesota are circular with central islands, looks like (doesn’t mean that it is) a strewn field.

    The big one on the Wisconsin side of the river is on the crater map linked to above. Another interesting circular feature is just SSE of the Iowa Great Lakes.

  53. lol we could have a mini ice age and the GISS would still say it was one of the warmest periods ever… snark off

  54. Well, all of you Doubters and Denialists, the person from mars supports my stance:

    “But MORE EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS ARE EXPECTED AS A CONSECUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE.

    With Global Warming, there is more energy in the Climate System. With more heat, more waper vapor. So heatwaves become hotter and more common, droughts become drier, and precipitation more intense.

    Remember, more intense precipitation events. In summer, this means extreme rainfall. In winter this means extreme snowfall: more super blizzards!”

    Of course, he/she didn’t mention teen pregnancies, but, by the same token, he/she didn’t once mention a polar friggin bear. So, I have the AWESOME POWER of CAPITALISED MIS-SPELLINGS behind my thought-train.

    Toot! Toot!

    Being from Mars, I guess that he/she would be familiar with solar induced global warming……

  55. @Kaboom:

    Yeah, and ‘our Martian’ has to explain this little problem:

    “Megadroughts” in the Midwest. 100 years long kind of things in California. During the MWP. Far worse than anything we have today:

    A paper by the NIPCC that talks about megadroughts. Has some choice words in it., but generally seems to link the droughts with hotter times in the MWP.

    http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2010/oct/27oct2010a3.html

    Real clarity, however, comes when the turn-of-the-century drought is compared to droughts of the prior millennium. Cook et al. write that “perhaps the most famous example is the ‘Great Drouth’ (sic) of AD 1276-1299 described by A.E. Douglass (1929, 1935).” Yet this 24-year drought was eclipsed by the 38-year drought that was found by Weakley (1965) to have occurred in Nebraska from AD 1276 to 1313, which Cook et al. say “may have been a more prolonged northerly extension of the ‘Great Drouth’.” But even these multi-decade droughts truly pale in comparison to the “two extraordinary droughts discovered by Stine (1994) in California that lasted more than two centuries before AD 1112 and more than 140 years before AD 1350.” And each of these megadroughts, as Cook et al. describe them, occurred, in their words, “in the so-called Medieval Warm Period.” And they add that “all of this happened prior to the strong greenhouse gas warming that began with the Industrial Revolution [authors' italics].”

    Then this nice little kicker:

    In further ruminating about these facts in the “Conclusions and Recommendations” section of their paper, Cook et al. again state that the medieval megadroughts “occurred without any need for enhanced radiative forcing due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing” — because, of course, there was none at that time — and, therefore, they say “there is no guarantee that the response of the climate system to greenhouse gas forcing will result in megadroughts of the kind experienced by North America in the past.” And if the world’s climate alarmists refuse to acknowledge this possibility and continue to claim that global warming will most assuredly trigger the occurrence of medieval-like megagroughts, they will also have to acknowledge that the Medieval Warm Period of a thousand years ago had to have been much warmer than the Current Warm Period has been to date. But this acknowledgement destroys yet another of their claims, i.e., that the earth is currently warmer than it has been for one (Mann et al., 1999) to two (Mann and Jones, 2003) millennia.

    You can almost hear them thinking “Game, Set, and Match”
    ;-)

    At any rate, it looks like as we’ve cooled from the MWP, the frequency, duration, and extent of large drouths has moderated. (My Dad used to say it that way, drouths… I feel bad for having complained at him about it. Found out later it was just an older form of the word and perfectly fine…) That implies further moderation as we continue to cool.

    The paper shows a consistently lessening problem over long periods of time, though.

    SO, my Favorite Martian needs to explain just how it’s going to be getting all so much worse

    ” So heatwaves become hotter and more common, droughts become drier,”

    Or he can explain how the MWP was so much hotter than it is now.

    Either one is fine with me.

    I’ll wait. (but not too long… it could take a while… a very long while ;-)

  56. E.M.Smith says:
    “Or he can explain how the MWP was so much hotter than it is now”

    Well, all paleoclimate indicates that the MWP was not as warm as the last decades. It was warmer in the North Atlantic, but cooler in the Tropical Pacific (that is, there was a predominance of La Niña). See this maps:

    http://www.skepticalscience.com/medieval-warm-period-intermediate.htm

    And a post on a paper on South America:

    http://www.skepticalscience.com/South-American-hockey-stick.html

    But let’s assume that this reconstructions are all wrong and the MWP was warmer than today.There is a problem insisting that the Medieval Warm Period was warmer than present:

    The “hockey stick”is not only for temperature. It is also for climate forcing: now there are record levels of greenhouse gases. In effect, the “temperature hockey stick” go back to 2000 years, but CO2 and CH4 levels are at record levels in MILLIONS of years.

    This is an impressive “hockey league”:

    http://www.skepticalscience.com/Hockey-stick-or-hockey-league.html

    So, if the MWP was warmer than today, it will be really odd. And will be a very disturbing result, because:

    1) the forcing in the Middle Ages was much smaller than today, so climate sensitivity is really much higher. So WE CAN EXPECT A MUCH BIGGER GLOBAL WARMING THAN GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS PREDICT.

    2)Since with much higher forcing the climate hasn’t warmed more than in the MWP, most of warming is “in the pipeline”. So we can expect a lot more of warming even our emissions drop to zero today. If we not stop emitting now, a climate catastrophe is certain, with more than 5ºC of warming.

    See here:

    http://www.skepticalscience.com/Do-critics-of-the-hockey-stick-realise-what-theyre-arguing-for.html

    Keep criticizing the hockey stick. Maybe you are right, and climate change is much worse than global climate models predict.

  57. from mars,

    So far, absolutely none of the temperature datasets you are citing has shown to be very accurate or reliable. There is still pretty solid evidence that 1936 may well have been the hottest year in the last 75, but you NO LONGER see that in the datasets which you cite, because they have been routinely “adjusted”.

    As has been demonstrated MANY times on this site, earlier years get adjusted DOWNWARDS, while later years get adjusted UPWARDS, and suddenly you have a magical trend!

    I will agree with you on the following:

    It is highly likely that the global average temperature has risen approximately 0.6 degrees centigrade from 1979 – present. It is also relatively likely that man has made SOME (but not very much) contribution to that 0.6 degrees change.

    Also, it is HIGHLY likely that 2012-2013 is gonna look almost precisely like 1978-1979 weather-wise, and erase all of that increase. Even the “climate models” which you probably love are currently showing this.

    Climate is a NATURAL phenomenon.

  58. from mars,

    Interesting how you completely ignore all of the recent studies that show that the MWP was a GLOBAL phenomenon, and not merely isolated to the North Atlantic. “skepticalscience” is unfortunately short on both skepticism and science, but you will probably only learn that if you spend a much larger amount of your time reading the real science that goes on at sites like this one.

    The problem is, apparently you haven’t been at this site long, so you don’t realize that over the past 2 years we have already thoroughly debunked every argument you have made so far in this thread. Check out the archives here, you will find them highly informative.

  59. I’ve read that the climate cultists have developed scripts to spam any post on blogs they follow with pro-warmist propaganda, including links to discredited papers. I suspect that is what we are running into now, or perhaps some undergrads done with finals early.

  60. PeterB in Indianapolis:

    Have you seen the link to SOUTH AMERICAN PALEOTEMPERATURES?

    Here is the link to the paper “Ammonium concentration in ice cores: A new proxy for regional temperature reconstruction”:

    http://www.leif.org/EOS/2009JD012603.pdf

    It is interesting to me, since I live from 22 years in Peru, South America (Mars has an awful climate, you know).

    The MWP was evident also in South America, but STILL COOLER THAN PRESENT TIME. You should know, since WUWT posted about this article:

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/09/01/study-ammonium-as-ice-core-proxy-shows-strong-medieval-warm-period/

    And I repeat what I said before:

    “So, if the MWP was warmer than today, it will be really odd. And will be a very disturbing result, because:

    1) the forcing in the Middle Ages was much smaller than today, so climate sensitivity is really much higher. So WE CAN EXPECT A MUCH BIGGER GLOBAL WARMING THAN GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS PREDICT.

    2)Since with much higher forcing the climate hasn’t warmed more than in the MWP, most of warming is “in the pipeline”. So we can expect a lot more of warming even our emissions drop to zero today. If we not stop emitting now, a climate catastrophe is certain, with more than 5ºC of warming.

    Keep criticizing the hockey stick. Maybe you are right, and climate change is much worse than global climate models predict.”

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