Major Winter Storm headed for the US West Coast

You can only talk about weather when its a warm issue. Early snowfall means nothing. Just natural variences we are told. Actually I feel it’s really a sign of things to come this winter and winters to come.
RyanMaue: early snowfall over Siberia is very important for winter climate. It was a critical component to the record negative Arctic Oscillation last year and the brutal Northern Hemisphere winter.

Well,
Here in Colorado we’ve been enjoying an extended summer. Of course its all due to AGW – but next week we’re supposted to get that storm hitting the coast now. But, I agree, that’ s just weather….\sarc off\
Mike

I am in the region of NW Calif. on the track to Lassen Park vis Redding, CA.
Been showering since yesterday, getting heavier.
It all starts on the Pacific NW coast. Look out the rest of you.
La Nina begins its rally, like a late-inning come from behind ball game.

If the GFS is a “perfect prog” it would be an “Edmund Fitzgerald”-type storm.

‘Winter’ type low pressure cells have been hitting the Pac. NW since this summer.
The local meteorologist had made note of them as highly unusual.
Now, they are packing.
And so it begins.

It seems the NH and SH. Interesting times!
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

A rather early snowfall is forecasted for Tuesday/Wednesday in Sapporo, the capital of Hokkaido, Japan, due to cold air coming down from Siberia.

Ryan Maue says:
October 23, 2010 at 6:14 pm
What are you using for temperatures to create those maps?
Ryan: NCEP GFS deterministic forecast, 2-meter temperatures. Climatology is based upon the NCEP CFSR reanalysis, recently released which uses essentially the same numerical model as the GFS. As close to an apples-to-apples comparison as you can get with gridded historical and forecast data. The climo is based upon the mean temps for a 21-day centered period on the date in question, averaged over 31-years: 21×31 = 651.

Just for reference, this link should point to the latest MM5 North Pacific Animated Forecast Loop for surface temperatures, winds, and isobar curves for the next 72 hours in 3-hour increments. Currently, (12 UTC Sat 23 Oct 10) it seems to be predicting that a new blob of cold air will come out over the arc of the Aleutian Islands.
MM5 North Pacific Animated Forecast Loop
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d1_slp+///3

ahhh, something wicked this way comes…

The stuff that’s been coming down here in Eugene, OR, for the last three hours is what we call “rotten snow,” which falls out of the sky instead of real snow in these moderate climes (54ºF).
Wunderground tells me we’ve already got 0.36″ of the stuff.
I’ve been wondering when La Niña was gonna get herself all cranked up! The past couple of weeks have been pretty dry.

Loveland Ski Area opens tomorrow (10/24) and Arapahoe Basin ski area (A-Basin) opens Monday (10/25). It’s snowing and cold in Breckenridge. The big storm hitting Wash. is on its way to Colorado. Looks like a little powder skiing for Loveland and A-Basin next week. A decade ago I recall the news media screeching that “global warming” would destroy the ski industry by now. Another false prophecy of the global warming/climate change/climate disruption alarmists. Snowfall has been above-average for the state of Colorado for the past five winters and is expected to be above average again this season.

Time to start up the snowpack machine on the Sierra and the Cascades.
What a beast of a cyclone!

We’ve had a glorious fall in Colorado! We’ve been in that great place between air conditioning and heat for at least 6 weeks. However, for the first time ever, we have a conflict between mowing the lawn and the Halloween decorations.
My flowers are still blooming and my tomatoes are still producing. The grass looks the best it ever has. Bring on more La Nina!
Here’s hoping it continues.

Current forecast for the greater Lake Tahoe area:
Tonight
Breezy. Rain and snow. Snow level 7500 to 8000 feet. Lows 36 to 46. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Ridge gusts up to 70 mph increasing to 95 mph after midnight.
Sunday
Very windy with rain. Highs 49 to 59. Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph. Gusts up to 55 mph. Ridge gusts up to 120 mph.
Sunday Night
Windy. Rain and snow in the evening…then scattered showers after midnight. Snow level 8000 feet lowering to 6500 feet. Snow accumulation 5 to 10 inches above 8000 feet with up to 3 inches elsewhere above 6500 feet. Lows 27 to 37. Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph decreasing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph after midnight. Ridge gusts up to 110 mph decreasing to 90 mph after midnight.

Blowing like stink here in Victoria which is pretty much the eye of this storm. Horizontal rain. But quite warm.
It’s weather but it is wet and blustery.
I blame Bush of course.

I thought the “pineapple express” term referred to the typically warm flow of moisture from the Hawaiian islands area towards the West coast. This storm is moving directly Eastward from Japan to the West Coast following the jet. Pineapples generally bring very wet and heavy snow depths to the Sierra. Perhaps this is more of a pineapple modiki ?

Early snowfalls, or snow in places which do not usually experience snow is significant since it has an effect on the albedo. If there is a trend over several years, the change in albedo will begin to reduce the warming. It may also be a sign of changing weather patterns which may also have some significant long term effect.
Hence stories about snowfall are a little more relevant than stories of about very warm weather.
Of course, for most people, we are more interested in the weather than in the climate since it is the weather not the climate that impacts on our day to day lifes. Most of us are more concerned about it being too cold rather than it being too hot.
I recogn that high winter fuel bills beckon.

This must be the Global Climate Disruption they warned us about!!!

Noaa shouts another scary scenario.
.SYNOPSIS…A STRONG STORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL IN THE OLYMPICS…GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA…AND GIANT WAVES WILL REACH THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AND BY TONIGHT SNOW WILL BE FALLING IN THE
CASCADES ABOVE 4000 FEET. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WET WEATHER COULD RETURN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
Never mind the 4000 foot snowline. We are having periodic flurries here at 575 feet!

My kids will want some new Carbon Fiber K2 boards for Christmas. I like the carbon fiber poles also. Of course the plastic boots and apparel will be from petrol. We will need to make sure the rubbber carbon tires are in good shape on the Gas guzzling SUV. We save a lot of CO2 not flying in to Aspen in the big Gulfstreams like the troo conservationists use.

England – 20 Oct 2010
“Snow falls in Yorkshire – In October!”
“Snow fell as far south as Yorkshire as drivers were stranded in cars following blizzards in Scotland as winter came early to Britain. ”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8076667/Snow-falls-in-Yorkshire-In-October.html

From the it’s just weather and not climate department:
Loveland Ski Area opens tomorrow, the first ski area in Colo. to open once again

Early Snow Falling On Vermont Mountain Tops
Early Snow at Snowshoe
It’s winter already in the Valley – [Kashmir]
Siberian swans fly in early with an icy omen for winter…
http://www.skiinfo.co.uk has reported heavy snow in Europe and North America this week
and in Turkey the Blue Mosque and palm trees get dusted by snow.

I’ll be driving in snow within the next 24 hours. Our mountains, down to the tree line, here in Wallowa County, are now as white as they were in the dead of Winter last year. I am snuggled into this big old ranch house on a quiet Sunday morning. My honey is soundly sleeping just feet away from my computer desk as the wind whistles, rattles, and blows around the crevices of cranky old construction and thin, poured-glass fragile windows. Not to worry. I stacked my woodshed with extra wood this year and have a full jug of Bailey’s just opened this morning.
These hard winters are what makes this country and its people hardy and able to withstand the cold spells. And hard times calls for stout leaders willing to let us struggle on our own without the monkey government on our backs making it more difficult than it should be. So Democrats, stay out of my air and office space. And Republicans, stay out of my bedroom. If you would just leave us the hell alone, we will be just fine.

Another change of seasons and another shift in the jet stream. Nice to get the weather report here on WUWT.
Of course one storm and one season means nothing, but in general storms mean lots of energy in the atmosphere, and in the longer term, increased CO2 means more energy in the atmopshere and an acceleration in the hydrological cycle. This is a process the planet has used for millions of years to balance out the CO2 in the atmosphere through the weathering of rock which removes CO2 from the atmosphere and returns it to the oceans. Here’s a nice little paper about this you can read:
http://www.karst.edu.cn/carbon/rockd.htm

R. Gates says:
October 24, 2010 at 9:22 am

Right, what side was it that went on about how “snow was going to be a thing of the past”. And now colder temperatures and increased snow-fall are proof for global warming. I have no issues with relevant information, but the hydrological cycle is not in contention. What is, is the fact that we have 10-15 years showing no warming, and then to top that off we now are told that bigger winter storms are agw at their worst. If you had not said the opposite 15 years ago when we WERE WARMING, this claim might be taken seriously.
Mark my words, continue being obtuse about it, and the more people will become sceptics. It was your outlandish claims that created me in the first place. So how many people are going to truly believe that global warming causes colder winters with more snow? You can wrap that up and deliver it however you want, but at some point people will realize how stupid it sounds. And instead of me, you will have three Ben’s….just wait I tell you. I will multiply and invade your internets one Ben at a time.

R. Gates says on October 24, 2010 at 9:22 am
Another change of seasons and another shift in the jet stream. Nice to get the weather report here on WUWT.
Of course one storm and one season means nothing, but in general storms mean lots of energy in the atmosphere, and in the longer term, increased CO2 means more energy in the atmopshere and an acceleration in the hydrological cycle. This is a process the planet has used for millions of years to balance out the CO2 in the atmosphere through the weathering of rock which removes CO2 from the atmosphere and returns it to the oceans. Here’s a nice little paper about this you can read:
http://www.karst.edu.cn/carbon/rockd.htm
Can you tell us what an acceleration in the hydrological cycle means or is it just more bullshit to try to baffle us with?

The hot spell in the US midwest continues. I’m going out for bike ride and will need to bring plenty of water, with the temperature near 80F. My understanding is that La Nina makes for colder winters along the Pacific coast, but warmer winters in the East, especially the South East. Minnesota, which usually sees snow by now is still getting “shorts and t-shirt weather.

R. Gates says:
October 24, 2010 at 9:22 am
In your 10,000 sq ft ballroom, if one person were to occupy the floor, would you call that increased energy in the ballroom and accelerated dance cycle “significant”?
Yet you say that one storm/one season is nothing in the very next breath.
You have no consistency.
Having lived through the 50’s & 60’s seasons in California, I can tell you this storm is exactly what used to be the norm, prior to the mid 70’s shift in the Pacific. Winter came early, and it got rough.
What’s in your wallet?

rbateman says on October 24, 2010 at 11:31 am

R. Gates says:
October 24, 2010 at 9:22 am
In your 10,000 sq ft ballroom, if one person were to occupy the floor, would you call that increased energy in the ballroom and accelerated dance cycle “significant”?
Yet you say that one storm/one season is nothing in the very next breath.

Yeah, perhaps the great brownnoser can tell us:
1. How much energy there is in the hydrological cycle
2. How much additional energy the additional CO2 will contribute? 100%? 10%? 1%, .01% …
Then we can evaluate this acceleration of the hydrological cycle and figure out if it is worth worrying about.

Now you too can measure Global Warming in inches.

October 24, 2010 at 12:22 pm
crosspatch…1989 or 1990 possibly??? Warmest and less snowiest winters until 2007-08…If so, we finally know where the snow got stuck….here in S and mid Scandinavia,
that is…

Pat Frank says:{October 24, 2010 at 1:00 pm}
“Tom, out here on the central Pacific coast, summer ocean water temps are about 60 F. And you’re complaining about 77 F bath tub water. Shame on you. :-)”
Yes, it’s shameful isn’t it. However, at my age I find no joy in “displaying my bravado” by entering into water that is uncomfortable. By the way, our summer Gulf temps are 88-90 F, now that’s true bath water and I might add that Great White’s are less likely to be found in bath water.

Douglas DC says:
October 24, 2010 at 12:42 pm
DC, I currently live in the Ophir Beach area… My wife runs one of the local governments so there is a radius of how far she can live outside of town. It is beautiful here, but you have to be prepared to take care of yourself. We had mudslides in this area a few years ago, my neighbors said it was 11 days before ODOT had 101 opened up again. People are prepared here.
Not sure if you follow the local politics, but it appears that Curry County may dissolve or file BK… Sooner than some people are expecting. The county is handing over services to the local citys, to provide in their region.
Things are getting interested out here, at the edge of the world.

R. Gates says:
October 24, 2010 at 3:05 pm
“The acceleration of the hydrological cycle, which seems to one of the planet’s natural reactions to this increase,”
Which would lead to stronger and more storms, right? Yeah, right. So we can’t be warming, otherwise we would have more and stronger storms. Thanks for debunking AGW in such an elegant way. We appreciate that.
Oh, BTW, can a planet have unnatural reactions? 🙂

Wonder if this winter will be dominated by zonal flow…

Ric Werme says:
October 24, 2010 at 1:26 pm
Please read http://www.gordonlightfoot.com/wreckoftheedmundfitzgerald.shtml
The legend lives on from the Chippewa on down
of the big lake they called “Gitche Gumee.”
The lake, it is said, never gives up her dead
when the skies of November turn gloomy.
With a load of iron ore twenty-six thousand tons more
than the Edmund Fitzgerald weighed empty,
that good ship and true was a bone to be chewed
when the “Gales of November” came early.
Ric, here’s an excellent tribute to the Edmund Fitzgerald crew of that fateful November 10, 1975:

R Gates
You sometimes have good arguments but you often have bad math.
Your claim that ‘there will be more heat in the atmosphere’ and that it means stronger convections and storms and higher energy movements in general is false. It represents the false claim that a warmer world will see more energetic hurricanes. If you raise the enthalpy of a system, it does not and cannot mean a higher turnover of energy through the system unless the energy input rate has increased, save that it is venting stored energy. Wrapping a towel around a hot water bottle does not increase the total energy in the bottle.
Your argument turns on the general ignorance of people about the difference between the temperature of a system and the rate of energy passing through it and pretends that both are happening simultaneously with no additional energy input. It is widely claimed that the sun does not change much in energy input, so that means the rate of transmission of energy into the atmosphere will not change much either.
Your further argument also has it that as the system will heat up (putatively because of an increase in CO2) so the quantity of heat in the atmosphere will increase. I grant that if the atmosphere heat content increases (for any reason) there is indeed more energy in the system. Your claim is that the energy accumulates because of CO2 increases. For that to happen the quantity of heat released has to decrease. But there is no decrease, is there?
You picture this extra energy in the atmosphere creating havoc inside the system, while simultaneously venting heat faster from the atmosphere beceause of more powerful storms. It is logically impossible. If the system vents heat faster when it is even slightly hotter (a well established fact) then it is no longer hotter. Full stop. The heat leaves. As you disallow that solar input has changed enough to cause heating (say, temp rise from 1975-1998) then there is no more heat coming in, right? In short, if the system temperature rises briefly, it is immediately (within days or hours) vented from the system. If it hides in the oceans for a while, it is vented upon surfacing.
If the atmosphere is receiving as much energy as before (the general statement from those opposed to seeing the solar variation as meaningful) then the equilibrium state will be the same energy going in as goes out, with a slightly higher temperature in the atmosphere. In the case of CO2, this is supposed to be in the mid-altitudes in the tropics, something already show to be false. But let’s continue anyway.
If the whole system is hotter, then there is no relative advantage for air movement to a colder place because it is warmer there too. It will not ‘rain more’ because if the land is warmer, the rain will stop after the slightly wetter clouds dump their regular moisture load, down to equilibrium again. It won’t rain less either because the clouds have more total moisture (being warmer). That equilibrium takes only a matter of 6 hours to stabilise and happens each day.
If it is the poles not the tropics that warm faster (the retreat position of the warmists) then the driver of N-S air movement is reduced in intensity. That does not increase the storm intensity either.
The whole notion that a warmer world will create, simultaneously, increased vertical system dynamics AND hotter prevailing temperatures with constant solar input is simply bad math. It is characteristic of the warmist position that everything will be worse simultaneously – a thermodynamically impossible condition because unlike the name, there is no greenhouse glass preventing mass transfer upwards into the cold of space. As soon as the atmosphere increases above certain temperatures, it vents the heat into space by punching thunderclouds slightly higher. This is also well-established and not a mystery to anyone.
As any brief review of the evidence for much higher historical CO2 levels and temperature shows, there is an upper limit limit to the atmospheric temperature (something like 24 C) no matter what the CO2 concentration. Surely you are aware of this?
The alternative to your view is that if the atmosphereic temperature rises from solar variation, GHG changes, cloud cover drop or any combination of physical or electrical or radiative factors, the heat is vented by vertical air circulation. The only possible supoprt for your view that there will be increased storm ferocity (caused by this ‘higher energy level’) is if the input of energy increases, which means accepting (the truth) of solar input variation and its attendant physical changes on Earth. As the solar cause is flatly denied, the CO2 promoters such as yourself are stuck in a logical cleftstick from which you have no way out save to repeat increasingly complex thermo-impossiblities to the credulous. There is no point in repeating them here at WUWT. Wrong channel.

Oops, should have said the altitude that I was at was in the southeastern corner of Yosemite in the Ansel Adams wilderness at the end of Beasore road and beyond up the 4×4 trails that extend up to about 8000 feet altitude.

Addendum. We found a portable US Forest Service Weather Station on one of the mountains just southeast of Yosemite today.
http://www.panoramio.com/photo/42711416
This would be a great one to monitor if you could find it’s frequency as it is at about 7600 feet altitude and will get snow very soon.

Looks like my prediction was right! Here is the webcam at Mammoth Mountain. The camera is at about 9000 feet and the snow line is about 500-1000 feet higher.
http://www.mammothmountain.com/WebCams/MainCam/
Another storm is headed our way later in the week. If you look at the pictures at the bottom of the page you can see (this will change tomorrow) a LOT of water at the bottom of the Gondola lift. It rained a lot there yesterday.

Richard Sharpe said:
“More hand waving from the great brown noser!”
____
I can only assume then that Anthony now approves of ad hominem attacks here on WUWT. But to use the definition of the term as I understand it, I would ask: who would it be that I would be “brown nosing”?
______
What is the “velocity” of the hydrological cycle?
Of course, I know you are having your fun, but in fact there are in fact several ways to measure the “velocity” of the hydrological cycle:
1) Ocean salinity
2) Stream flows
3) Precipitation events
4) Evaporation
Then of course, “accleration” would be a measure of the changes in these on a global basis. Here’s a nice little fairly recent study on one aspect related to measurement of the acceleration in the hydrological cycle:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/04/100416094050.htm

R Gates, you need, you really need, to live next to the Pacific Ocean along the Washington, Oregon, or California coastline. If you do, you need to get out more.
Your climate change culprit is the ocean. We are under La Nina conditions. I should know. I drove through La Nina’s cold tears this morning. And me without snow tires. Why? Can’t put my snow tires on just yet. Why? It ain’t November yet (stupid ass rule that has nothing to do with conditions on the ground).
But don’t get your knickers in a bunch. Don’t wax “climate warming”, “climate change”, “catastrophic climate change”, or “climate disruption” poetic on me. It has nothing to do with CO2. It has everything to do with La Nina. Cold La Nina inspired air mixing with left over El Nino oceanic moisture translates into cold, wintry, snowy conditions (file that under “duh”).
I have to ask, do you have living grandparents? You act as if you haven’t heard the weather stories from past generations.

From R Gates Science Daily link on the acceleration of the hydro cycle:
“These broad-scale patterns of change are qualitatively consistent with simulations reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).”
=============================
Oh…OK….consistent with the IPCC.
Wow. I am exactly anti-concerned, then.
Nothing more to be said.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA