Earl and the East Coast

Earl looks to have a path grazing the East Coast of the USA. Cape Hatteras, Long Island, and Cape Cod may be in a portion of the projected path.

Satellite image follows along with a recent bulletin.

http://cache1.intelliweather.net/imagery/KPAY/sat_atlantic_640x480.jpg

Animate the sat loop – click here

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
200 AM AST WED SEP 01 2010

...POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 70.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.7 WEST.  EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
THE HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.  NOAA BUOY 41046
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 72 MPH...115 KM/HR...WITH
GUSTS TO 85 MPH...137 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.  WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE IN THESE ISLANDS TODAY.

STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
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23 Responses to Earl and the East Coast

  1. Methow Ken says:

    Just a SLIGHT drift to the west of latest projected path by the eye, and this one could be a direct hit on a whole bunch of people.

  2. boballab says:

    Methow Ken says:
    August 31, 2010 at 11:28 pm
    Just a SLIGHT drift to the west of latest projected path by the eye, and this one could be a direct hit on a whole bunch of people.

    Tell me about it. I live just outside Ocean City Md and we have already got a “go bag” ready, the dog kennels staged in the bed of th pickup and non perishable food ready to go.

  3. John Wright says:

    Seeing that it’s tracking Northwards along the East coast of America, I suspect we’ll get some of it in Europe before it blows itself out. It won’t be the first time that’s happened, but we are never adequately prepared here.

  4. Ackos says:

    Could make for some soggy football this weekend

  5. Leon Brozyna says:

    Earl will be a great media event for the networks.

    After air-kissing the coast around Cape Hatteras, the cone of the predicted track for Earl has been shifted a bit toward the east, misssing most of the target rich coastal US communities. Ultimate target — New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, PEI, Quebec, & Newfoundland, before its remnants head out to the west coast of Greenland.

    While its close proximity will put a damper on swimming and boating with rain bands and rough surf along the US coast, the Labor Day weekend won’t be a washout. Even the elite will be able to enjoy Cape Cod’s facilities on Sunday & Monday.

  6. Snow, then heat, then a hurricane. Proof of global warming. None of these things ever happened before.

  7. Sean Peake says:

    A question: how much heat do storms like Earl taken out of the ocean?

  8. JohnH says:

    Looking awfully “Floyd-like”. I’m spending today replacing my sump pump and stocking the pantry. Should be an interesting coupla days for the east coast.

  9. Luboš Motl says:

    I’ve seen similar pictures of tropical storms going “nearly” to Massachusetts many times – but the weather in Massachusetts was never more spectacular than just “somewhat bad”. ;-)

  10. Pete says:

    This is pretty much a glorified nor’easter for New England…nothing they haven’t seen before. Definitely headed for the beach to see some of the wave action!

  11. Douglas DC says:

    Back in the 90’s Wife’s cousin was living on Cape Cod-She spent the previous 30
    years on the southern Oregon coast. At her husband’s favorite restaurant, there was
    a Cat one headed their way, She said to the waiter who was frantic about the 75 mph
    winds. She said:”75?! you are worried about only 75?!” “Where are YOU from lady?
    the Waiter asked…..

  12. Justin Time says:

    Strongest hurricane to make it this far north in nearly 20 years. Coincidence that sea temperatures off the east coast are running about 8dF above “normal”? Oh, I forgot, that’s a hoax, right?

  13. peterhodges says:

    wasn’t it during the cooler 60’s and 70’s when new england got hit more often hurricanes?

  14. David Spurgeon says:

    Earl and the East Coast

    Lord Christopher Monckton is an “EARL” I think – lol!

  15. PJB says:

    Earl is getting ready to rumble…

  16. boballab says:

    Justin Time says:
    September 1, 2010 at 9:36 am
    Strongest hurricane to make it this far north in nearly 20 years. Coincidence that sea temperatures off the east coast are running about 8dF above “normal”? Oh, I forgot, that’s a hoax, right?

    And he completely misses the logical fallacy in his statement and postion….

    According to Warmists 2010 is THE WARMEST YEAR EVER!.

    So explain why 20 years ago when the temperatures were lower then now; you got a Hurricane stronger this far north when CAGW says that Hurricanes are suppose to get stronger when the temperatures are higher from CO2?

  17. Jaye Bass says:

    Justin Time says:
    September 1, 2010 at 9:36 am

    Strongest hurricane to make it this far north in nearly 20 years. Coincidence that sea temperatures off the east coast are running about 8dF above “normal”? Oh, I forgot, that’s a hoax, right?

    20 whole years huh… wow that’s gotta be unprecedented …when did Anecdotalism become a field of study?

  18. boballab says:

    Jaye Bass says:
    September 1, 2010 at 2:16 pm

    Maybe we shouldn’t tell Justin about Hurricane Hazel back in 1954 that was a Cat 4 hurricane when it hit land in North Carolina with winds of 140 MPH.

    Hurricane Hazel was the deadliest and costliest hurricane of the 1954 Atlantic hurricane season. The storm killed as many as 1,000 people in Haiti before striking the United States near the border between North and South Carolina, as a Category 4 hurricane. After causing 95 fatalities in the US, Hazel struck Canada as an extratropical storm, raising the death toll by 81 people, mostly in Toronto. As a result of its damaging effects and high death toll, its name was retired and will never again be used for a hurricane in the North Atlantic basin.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hazel

    And there is the Great Hurricane of 1944 which might confuse him since it too was a Cat 4 with 140 MPH winds.

    A hurricane was first detected on September 9, northeast of the Lesser Antilles. It likely developed from a tropical wave several days before. It moved west-northwestward, and steadily intensified to a 140 mph (230 km/h) major hurricane on the 12th, northeast of the Bahamas. Around this time, the Miami Hurricane Warning Office designated this storm The Great Atlantic Hurricane to emphasize its intensity and size, which appears to be the first time a name was designated by the office which evolved into the National Hurricane Center.[1] The hurricane turned northward and hit the Outer Banks later that day.

    Moving rapidly to the northeast, the hurricane maintained its strength somewhat at the time of its Long Island landfall on September 15, hitting as a Category 3 hurricane[2]. Shortly thereafter it crossed the Rhode Island coastline, and after emerging into the Massachusetts Bay it hit Maine, just before becoming extratropical. The non-tropical system continued northeastward, and merged with a larger extratropical low on the 16th south of Greenland.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1944_Great_Atlantic_Hurricane

    And the Hurricane of 1938 we definitely need to with hold since it reached Cat 5:

    The New England Hurricane of 1938 (or Great New England Hurricane or Long Island Express or simply The Great Hurricane of 1938) was the first major hurricane to strike New England since 1869. The storm formed near the coast of Africa in September of the 1938 Atlantic hurricane season, becoming a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale before making landfall as a Category 3 hurricane [1] on Long Island on September 21. The hurricane was estimated to have killed between 682 and 800 people,[2] damaged or destroyed over 57,000 homes, and caused property losses estimated at US$306 million ($ 4.72 billion in 2010).[3] In 1951, damaged trees and buildings were still to be seen in the affected areas.[4] To date it remains the most powerful, costliest and deadliest hurricane in New England history.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_England_Hurricane_of_1938

    And we have to keep this most secret, the Cat 4 storm of 1821:

    For those who live in the Garden State and the New York City area, and think that a major hurricane isn’t possible here better think again. This weekend commemorates the 185th anniversary of the Great Hurricane of 1821. On September 3rd that summer, a Category Four Hurricane rapidly moved up the east coast. As a matter of fact, the storm moved from North Carolina’s outer banks to the New York City area in just ten hours. This storm struck the Cape May area of extreme South Jersey, and moved up along a path that is covered by the Garden State Parkway today.

    Like the major storms of today, this hurricane caused a lot of damage and devastation, but it also served as an important moment in the study of hurricanes, particularly early ones. Data collected from this storm was researched thoroughly by an amateur meteorologist, who used his work to publish an article in the Journal of Science that would lay the foundation for our understanding of these storms. The most important lesson learned from this storm though is the fact that despite how rare it can be, hurricanes can happen here.

    http://www.hurricaneville.com/1821_hurricane.htm

    We need to keep this on the Skeptic Down low

  19. bob says:

    I think I can name some cat 5s that were farther north, or at least just as far north as Earl is now.

    Within the last 20 years of course.

    Not blaming them on anything either.

  20. Walter Dnes says:

    Canadian forecast at http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/hurricane/statements_e.html

    Section “5. Technical discussion for meteorologists” is interesting for weather-geeks. Since the statements get updated every so often, there’s no point copy-pasting a lo-o-o-ong discussion. Go to the link for the latest available update.

  21. RACookPE1978 says:

    So … In 1955, would anybody know about this storm yet? Wound it already be counted as a hurricane in 1955 before satellite photo’s and long-range weather planes? In 1921, would anybody know about it on the east coast?

  22. philh says:

    A tip to the west and we are looking at another Hugo here in Charlotte. 100 mile an hour winds. The city looked like it had been bombed. One of our oldest golf courses, the one where the Womens’ US Amateur was played a couple of weeks ago, lost 600 mature trees. No power for two weeks.

  23. savethesharks says:

    Here is an interesting discussion and way to analyze hurricanes that you don’t hear much about, but should.

    This measurement accurately predicted when Ike, a Cat 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, would cause catastrophic and Cat 4+ storm surge damage on the Bolivar Peninsula in Texas in 2008.

    The IKE as it is called, by the way, is an acronym, and has nothing to do with the name of the storm.

    From Dr. Jeff Master’s I give you this quote:

    Earl is a large hurricane, which gives it a higher potential for storm surge damage than a smaller hurricane with the same top winds. One measure of a storm’s power, useful for gauging storm surge threat, is to measure the speed of the winds and multiply by the area over which those winds blow. This total is called the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Based on the storm’s IKE, one can come up with a scale from 0 – 6 rating the storm’s destructive power from its storm surge. A separate rating can be given to the destructive potential of the storm’s winds. The IKE value of 112 Terrajoules for Earl, at 3:30pm EDT today, gives its storm surge a destructive power of 5.0 on a scale of 0 – 6. Earl’s winds have a lower destructive power, 3.4 on a scale of 0 – 6. Let’s hope the right front quadrant of Earl, where the main storm surge would occur, stays offshore! For comparison, the small Category 5 Hurricane Camille of 1969 had an IKE of 80 Terrajoules, and the very large Category 2 Hurricane Ike of 2008 had an IKE of 116 Terrajoules–similar to Category 3 Earl’s. –Dr. Jeff Masters

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

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