Earl looks to have a path grazing the East Coast of the USA. Cape Hatteras, Long Island, and Cape Cod may be in a portion of the projected path.
Satellite image follows along with a recent bulletin.
Animate the sat loop – click here
BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 200 AM AST WED SEP 01 2010 ...POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 70.7W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.7 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 41046 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 72 MPH...115 KM/HR...WITH GUSTS TO 85 MPH...137 KM/HR. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE IN THESE ISLANDS TODAY. STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
Just a SLIGHT drift to the west of latest projected path by the eye, and this one could be a direct hit on a whole bunch of people.
Tell me about it. I live just outside Ocean City Md and we have already got a “go bag” ready, the dog kennels staged in the bed of th pickup and non perishable food ready to go.
Seeing that it’s tracking Northwards along the East coast of America, I suspect we’ll get some of it in Europe before it blows itself out. It won’t be the first time that’s happened, but we are never adequately prepared here.
Could make for some soggy football this weekend
Earl will be a great media event for the networks.
After air-kissing the coast around Cape Hatteras, the cone of the predicted track for Earl has been shifted a bit toward the east, misssing most of the target rich coastal US communities. Ultimate target — New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, PEI, Quebec, & Newfoundland, before its remnants head out to the west coast of Greenland.
While its close proximity will put a damper on swimming and boating with rain bands and rough surf along the US coast, the Labor Day weekend won’t be a washout. Even the elite will be able to enjoy Cape Cod’s facilities on Sunday & Monday.
Snow, then heat, then a hurricane. Proof of global warming. None of these things ever happened before.
A question: how much heat do storms like Earl taken out of the ocean?
Looking awfully “Floyd-like”. I’m spending today replacing my sump pump and stocking the pantry. Should be an interesting coupla days for the east coast.
I’ve seen similar pictures of tropical storms going “nearly” to Massachusetts many times – but the weather in Massachusetts was never more spectacular than just “somewhat bad”. 😉
This is pretty much a glorified nor’easter for New England…nothing they haven’t seen before. Definitely headed for the beach to see some of the wave action!
Back in the 90’s Wife’s cousin was living on Cape Cod-She spent the previous 30
years on the southern Oregon coast. At her husband’s favorite restaurant, there was
a Cat one headed their way, She said to the waiter who was frantic about the 75 mph
winds. She said:”75?! you are worried about only 75?!” “Where are YOU from lady?
the Waiter asked…..
Strongest hurricane to make it this far north in nearly 20 years. Coincidence that sea temperatures off the east coast are running about 8dF above “normal”? Oh, I forgot, that’s a hoax, right?
wasn’t it during the cooler 60’s and 70’s when new england got hit more often hurricanes?
Earl and the East Coast
Lord Christopher Monckton is an “EARL” I think – lol!
Earl is getting ready to rumble…
http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/8661/earl4.gif
And he completely misses the logical fallacy in his statement and postion….
According to Warmists 2010 is THE WARMEST YEAR EVER!.
So explain why 20 years ago when the temperatures were lower then now; you got a Hurricane stronger this far north when CAGW says that Hurricanes are suppose to get stronger when the temperatures are higher from CO2?
20 whole years huh… wow that’s gotta be unprecedented …when did Anecdotalism become a field of study?
Maybe we shouldn’t tell Justin about Hurricane Hazel back in 1954 that was a Cat 4 hurricane when it hit land in North Carolina with winds of 140 MPH.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hazel
And there is the Great Hurricane of 1944 which might confuse him since it too was a Cat 4 with 140 MPH winds.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1944_Great_Atlantic_Hurricane
And the Hurricane of 1938 we definitely need to with hold since it reached Cat 5:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_England_Hurricane_of_1938
And we have to keep this most secret, the Cat 4 storm of 1821:
http://www.hurricaneville.com/1821_hurricane.htm
We need to keep this on the Skeptic Down low
I think I can name some cat 5s that were farther north, or at least just as far north as Earl is now.
Within the last 20 years of course.
Not blaming them on anything either.
Canadian forecast at http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/hurricane/statements_e.html
Section “5. Technical discussion for meteorologists” is interesting for weather-geeks. Since the statements get updated every so often, there’s no point copy-pasting a lo-o-o-ong discussion. Go to the link for the latest available update.
So … In 1955, would anybody know about this storm yet? Wound it already be counted as a hurricane in 1955 before satellite photo’s and long-range weather planes? In 1921, would anybody know about it on the east coast?
A tip to the west and we are looking at another Hugo here in Charlotte. 100 mile an hour winds. The city looked like it had been bombed. One of our oldest golf courses, the one where the Womens’ US Amateur was played a couple of weeks ago, lost 600 mature trees. No power for two weeks.
Here is an interesting discussion and way to analyze hurricanes that you don’t hear much about, but should.
This measurement accurately predicted when Ike, a Cat 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, would cause catastrophic and Cat 4+ storm surge damage on the Bolivar Peninsula in Texas in 2008.
The IKE as it is called, by the way, is an acronym, and has nothing to do with the name of the storm.
From Dr. Jeff Master’s I give you this quote:
Earl is a large hurricane, which gives it a higher potential for storm surge damage than a smaller hurricane with the same top winds. One measure of a storm’s power, useful for gauging storm surge threat, is to measure the speed of the winds and multiply by the area over which those winds blow. This total is called the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Based on the storm’s IKE, one can come up with a scale from 0 – 6 rating the storm’s destructive power from its storm surge. A separate rating can be given to the destructive potential of the storm’s winds. The IKE value of 112 Terrajoules for Earl, at 3:30pm EDT today, gives its storm surge a destructive power of 5.0 on a scale of 0 – 6. Earl’s winds have a lower destructive power, 3.4 on a scale of 0 – 6. Let’s hope the right front quadrant of Earl, where the main storm surge would occur, stays offshore! For comparison, the small Category 5 Hurricane Camille of 1969 had an IKE of 80 Terrajoules, and the very large Category 2 Hurricane Ike of 2008 had an IKE of 116 Terrajoules–similar to Category 3 Earl’s. –Dr. Jeff Masters
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA