Hurricane Earl strengthening

Now a Cat3 Hurricane, but looks like it will steer away from Gulf but will give some inclement weather to the Cape Hatteras through New England area.

Latest bulletin:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
100 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

…EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN…

SUMMARY OF 100 PM AST…1700 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…19.0N 64.0W
ABOUT 75 MI…120 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 140 MI…230 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…125 MPH…205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…955 MB…28.20 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA…BARBUDA…MONTSERRAT…ST. KITTS…AND NEVIS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN…SABA…AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICAN ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 100 PM AST…1700 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH…24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT…FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH…205
KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES…295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB…28.20 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VIRGIN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON…WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. STRONGER WINDS…ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS…ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN IN PUERTO RICO.

STORM SURGE…STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO
5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA…AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL…EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS…THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO…WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES…
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…300 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

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36 thoughts on “Hurricane Earl strengthening

  1. Best of luck & my sympathies to Puerto Rico. Been there (and I’m not speaking of the tourist catch basins, one of which is found at San Juan) and they’ll be on quite a wild ride for the next day or so.

    Now that Danielle has scooted out of the way, Earl’s turned into quite the bad boy. Meanwhile, the area of disturbed weather following fast on Earl’s heels has been found to have tropical storm force winds. TS Fiona might just emerge directly without first becoming a TD, maybe by 5 PM EDT. And as for Danielle, it looks like its track will be most interesting; after veering just before hitting Bermuda, it looks like it’ll veer again before smacking Ireland and turn its attentions to Greenland by the weekend.

  2. If Earl can pick up a bit of energy as he crosses the Gulf Stream, it should cap off the Nova Scotia summer quite nicely!

  3. There’s a huge batch of dry air off the east coast right now as seen in the water vapor loops. If it gets to land, and that’s a big if, it will probably be a shell of it’s former self.

  4. Right on time (5 PM EDT):

    TS Fiona emerges fully formed, skipping the TD stage.
    Hurricane Earl bumped up to Cat 4
    Danielle downgraded to TS status

  5. Good point, Mike.

    Here’s a loop showing the dry air you were talking about. It will be interesting to see if this helps to defy all the model forecasts for continued strengthening.

    I hope you are right, and the dry air brings the bastard to his knees.

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html

    Because right now, the storm is as strong as Hugo, Cat 4, 135 MPH winds.

    Chris
    Nervous in Norfolk, VA, USA

  6. La Nina = Small (er) storms moving up the East Coast.
    Well, at least it’s not a Category 5.
    … Why does the La Nina rule work so often ? ? ?

  7. So, is that smaller blotch of green way out in the Atlantic the track that the IPCC wants everyone to plan for?

  8. The forecast track keeps getting inched farther and farther west. If the trof is slow, then it may not get there in time to turn the storm. Several models also indicate an increase in intensity to Cat 5. Should at least be a close call for portions of the US East Coast. See satellite loops, spaghetti models, etc. here: http://wp.me/pduTk-2Vf

  9. This reminds me of the 1996 “Edouard,” which made a fool of me by scaring me into buying a generator I could ill afford. Edouard was predicted to bicect New England, 36 hours before it passed well out to sea.

    In the end, all depends on whether the storm phases with the trof approaching from the west. To be quite honest, I don’t think they can be entirely sure about that until Thursday. Right now they are just making educated guesses.

  10. …and let me add, that radar from St. Maarten, and the 85-GHz microwave imagery available elsewhere makes me wonder if an eyewall replacement cycle is about to start.

  11. Thank you for that, Scott. Cool animation.

    Deep, deep tropical moisture is important though, and it is my hope that the hidden ace Mother Nature throws at the bastard…is the lack of moisture in the mid levels.

    The leveling off of intensification right now with the cyclone [unless it is just going through an eyewall replacement] might be because some dry air is being entrained from the northwest.

    Certainly the expansive central dense overcast that was evident earlier in the day has contracted.

    That “contraction” could indicate the ice-skater effect. But in the same time period, there has been no rapid deepening, so that doesn’t seem to make sense.

    Check out the Dvorak loop….

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-bd.html

    And then of course, the water vapor loop again…

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

    Looks like every time he inhales a puff of dry air, he skips a beat.

    Wishful thinking….maybe. But I hope so.

    Nervous in Norfolk…

    CHRIS

  12. As I’ve also said the Saharan Dust storms are Supressing Big “Canes:
    Look at the Aerosols:
    Daily (lots) ____ http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/aerosol/FS_aer_day00.gif
    8-day (LITTLE) http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/aerosol/FS_aer_week3a00.gif
    Monthly (lots)__ http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/air/aer_month.html

    Sort of Implies Earl got going in a temporary LULL in the Dust Storms, most of last week, and is now moving out of their East-West track
    - – - both of which actions tend to enhance Earl. Note above, I referred to the “La Nina” we are in – - BUT this refers to the EL NINO which was supposed to heat up the Water so much.
    (but the rule for REALLY strong El Ninos is they excite the Saharan Dust, whose Fall wrecks the ‘Canes — this was the 4th strongest in 61 years).
    >> Months after the Atmospheric effects have switched to La Nina, the pokey 3-to-4 knot current is still moving El Nino warmth up the Atlantic.
    This may bode ill for the Carolinas.

    PS LOOK AT THAT DUST. All the way from Africa & it is still Heavily Falling WEST of Cuba (if apparently, NOT half that far, for most of last week).

  13. Scott says:
    August 30, 2010 at 8:14 pm

    Re: Water vapor. Keep in mind WV imagery from the GOES Imager shows mid-tropospheric water vapor and that the atmosphere could be quite moist in low levels. Total Precipitable water from microwave sensors (http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/main.html) doesn’t paint quite so dry an atmosphere in advance of Earl.
    _____________________Reply;
    From Tallblokes pages:
    Richard Holle says:
    August 30, 2010 at 1:26 pm

    “”Been watching the decay of Danielle as she ingested that large mass of cool, dry, deionized air, and she was just gutted, stopped the rapid precipitation trend dead.

    I think this might be a mass of recharge effects from the earth passing Neptune, and Mercury getting ready to pass the earth, shifting the [HPGP] “homopolar generator potential” charge from pole to equator, from a discharge pattern back to a recharge pattern, it will stop, prevent, or slow the growth of Fiona, as it tries to push more +ions back into the atmosphere.

    Earl might just get killed, the same way, as Danielle did, as he runs into the frontal boundary as it pushes off of the EC of the USA. Normally the NHC does not see these HPGP charge shifts, [we seldom have rapid multiple outer planet conjunctions] so they will expect to see inertia control the path and growth of Earl and Fiona (still not a TS).

    I think there is a possibility that Earl will just fail to grow and wither and die when it meets this out wash of deionized cool dry air, that i think will just dilute the precipitation driven trend by the ion flux, that makes these storms grow, shift to a pattern of wither and just die.

    So what if Earl just quits like Bonnie and Colin did as they faltered and did not develop?
    NHC, NOAA do not foresee that as a possibility, from their forecasts they will continue on up the eastern seaboard, spreading death and destruction. IF this recharge withering of these storms occurs then the intensity comes back post September 21st, I would want to find the trail of evidence that leads back to the electromagnetic mechanism that drives the process.

    IF I am wrong and no stalling of energy flow occurs as Earl runs into the front, well I need to do more thinking.””

    Current thoughts; When the moon passes over head tonight the 15+ degree circle of lunar tidal bulge will be over head Earl and the dry air mass to it’s NWest, I fully expect to see a combination of the two forced by this method. Watch it here;

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

    If it shreds the strength out of Earl instead of producing a surge of RI like it has the last three nights, we may get out of this OK? I did not want to post this too soon because IF I am wrong, I did not want to slow up those who have much traffic in their evacuation route, and need to go now or soon IF I am way wrong…..

    Hell if you do/or you don’t kinda thing……Richard Holle,
    Stay safe, stock up anyway.

  14. Have you noticed that the forecast models have all been moving westward with the hurricane? When it first formed they had it going right over Bermuda. At least they change with reality, not vice versa like some climate models.

  15. There’s a fairly serious drought here in western MD, even tho it’s somewhat localized (stretching in an arc here down southeastward thru Richmond, Va). Sometimes the only thing that can disrupt the perpetual high-pressure overhead is a tropical system throwing a “monkey wrench” into the works.

    Even if Earl only skirts the mid-Atlantic coast, that track can sometimes pull alot of cooler air southward on the west side of it, and “mix” things up enough to get the jet-stream pattern back to a more average position (and provide more reliable frontal rain).

    I hope so. All corn has already had to be cut here, what little was left of it.

  16. Now THIS is weather! This I understand! This is something every living thing on the planet understands! (Smoe understand a heck of a lot more than the rest of us and it’s best if we just to sit back and listen/read what they have to say.) I’m listening and reading!

  17. From Forecaster Avila at the NHC 11 AM Advisory Discussion:

    “the eye has become obscured on visible images and this is reflected
    in a decrease in the Dvorak numbers and in an increase in the
    pressure to 939 mb. This apparent weakening is most likely related
    to an ongoing eyewall replacement cycle ”

    ===================================

    Way to cover your rear, Avila! Is this the best the NHC can do??

    No mention of the HUGE blob of VERY dry air at the mid and high levels sitting in Earl’s path.

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html

    Earl ingesting this will be hazardous to his health…and so there may be something more than an eyewall replacement going on.

    How many times does the eye become completely obscured during a major hurricane, especially cat 4 or higher? Almost never.

    There is something else going on here….

    Its the dry air.

    Choke baby, CHOKE!

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  18. Also note in the latest few hours, the moisture stream and the hurricane itself has gotten less circular and more elongated and distended in north-south direction.

    This elongation sometimes telegraphs the general direction the cyclone is going to travel.

    There definitely appears to be a turn to the north, however small.

    And eyewall replacement, my rear end!

    More like eyewall collapse.

    Check out the Dvorak infrared loop….

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-bd.html

    Would not be surprised to see it downgraded next advisory to a less-intense category.

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  19. Fiona is rapidly gaining on Earl, with her speed now 10mph faster than Earl. Could Fiona interact with Earl at some point, as they both appear to be on the same trajectory? And what would the interaction be, if it occurred? Just curious.

  20. Earl, being the much stronger of the two, could suck the moisture and energy right out of Fiona.

    This could counteract some of the negative effects the dry air to the north and west is currently having on Earl and give him another boost of tropical moisture. Hope not.

    And I hope the big beast stays offshore.

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  21. Charles Wilson August 30 at 9:24 pm

    EUMETSAT has an Red/Green/Blue composite image called “Dust” based upon the infrared channel data from the Meteosat Second Generation satellite. The algorithm is designed to monitor the evolution of dust storms during both day and night.

    http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/RGB/DUST/WESTERNAFRICA/index.htm

    Run the animation loop for Western Africa and look for the pink colored areas of dust generation, often ring-shaped, centred around a thunderstorm down-draft in the central Saharan regions of Mauritania, Mali & Algeria.

    http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&ll=22.390714,-3.779297&spn=17.818114,28.081055&t=h&z=5

    Rainfall from Saharan thunderstorms often evaporates in the hot dry desert air before the rain reaches the ground. The cooled air at the core of the thunderstorm however continues down to the surface, where it hits the desert and spreads out forming a dust storm.

    Haboob over the Nile, Khartoum, Sudan

  22. savethesharks August 31, 2010 at 9:43 am

    Check out the Dvorak infrared loop….

    Since when did these become ‘Dvorak infrared loop[s]‘ ?

    There is a Dvorak technique (circa 1974) used to subjectively estimate tropical cyclone intensity based solely on visible and infrared satellite imagery, but he, Vernon Dvorak, didn’t create satellite imagery …

    Looks to me like the invention of more slang.

    Dvorak Technique – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique

    Vernon Dvorack – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vernon_Dvorak

    .

  23. savethesharks August 31, 2010 at 9:43 am

    Check out the Dvorak infrared loop….

    Okay, never mind, I see this is an interactive display from which Dvorack numbers might possibly be ascertained … although explicit Dvorack numbers do not seem to be displayed on that screen …

    .

  24. I find the site I have listed below to have a little higher resolution imagery, plus a variety of selections of time periods for loops and the type of imagery … and, if you have Opera (at least), one can zoom one’s screen size (even with looped imagery; sometimes this is not possible with looped imagery) and see a tad bit bit more detail (some of us might be running 1400 x 1200 resolution on the monitor so the zoom is important):

    http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/

    Hint: Under “Latest GOES satellite imagery” 1) choose what you want to see (Visible, Infrared, Loop or Latest) then 2) choose click a location on the map (CARIB for the present location of Earl for instance).

    .

  25. RE: Chris, AKA :Savethesharks,

    I have been trying to devise a track for this storm where it would clobber the -snips- in Washington DC, and still manage to make it up to New England and sink Senator John Kerry’s brand new multi-million dollar yacht (dubbed “The Botched Joke” by Bostonians.)

    However I became aware the track I was wishing into existence might harm you, and Norfolk.

    Therefore I have sadly turned to wishing this -snipping- storm stays well out to sea.

  26. Arwww thanks Caleb.

    Yeah we are pretty vulnerable here.

    With 1.7 million people in the metropolitan area….the largest directly on the Atlantic Ocean between greater New York and greater Miami -Ft. Lauderdale…we are definitely sitting ducks.

    And rather important to the security of the nation, and the free world, sitting ducks, no doubt.

    As for your planned hurricane [lol I don't blame you] there are plenty of good people in DC and Boston who shouldn’t have to take one for the team, so to speak.

    A better “disaster” than such a storm….is to vote these bastards out of power!

    Cheers,

    [And still nervous]

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  27. So the deep deep abnormally high water temps, plus the upper level anticyclone ventilating it well are the plusses. [If you are a hurricane fan].

    But the southwesterly shear forecast, plus the VERY dry air…..are the minuses.

    Not a hurricane fan here when it affects lives and property.

    Go the hell away, Earl.

    And yeah…..take some deep deep gulps of that dry air.

    I hope you choke!

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  28. I am amazed at how the NHC, Accuweather, and others how downplayed the significance of the dry air intrusion as just an “eyewall replacement cycle”.

    Eyewall replacement cycles don’t usually take 36 hours to complete.

    Bastardi [I am an Accuweather Pro subscriber] was quoted a few hours ago: “An eye is forming. Its going on a true northwest course.”

    Well, Joe, where is the eye? And isn’t this course a little more north than northwest [eye wobble adjusted].

    The HUGE dry air blob to the northwest has been indirectly influencing Earl, for as long, and is now directly influencing him now.

    He is about to gulp in a huge amount of it, and, as evidenced by the CLEAR AIR slot [is this possible in a CAT 4 storm] advecting in from the southwest.

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

    Keep gulping, Earl.

    I’d love to watch you die.

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

    PS…here is the original post which accurately predicted this:

    Mike Ford says:
    August 30, 2010 at 12:50 pm
    There’s a huge batch of dry air off the east coast right now as seen in the water vapor loops. If it gets to land, and that’s a big if, it will probably be a shell of it’s former self.

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