Sumatran volcano erupts: first time since 1600

Any initial estimates on how much particulate is being spewed into the atmosphere?
-Scott

“Over 10,000 people have been internally evacuated after the eruption”, could be messy.

” the geophysics and meteorology agency just declared a normal status for the mountain.”
Surely, if the “experts” have already confirmed everything is hunky dory, why would we believe the lying eyes of these benighted and non peer-reviewed villagers?
Have they not been told the Science is Settled?

There is a known negative correlation between seismic activity and the 11-year solar cycle.

Toba, Yellowstone, Mammoth Lakes, Santorini, Tambora, Cumbre Vieja on La Palma, etcetera. Not to mention ”ordinary” volcanos near populated areas:
Just here in WA: Rainier, Baker, Adams, Glacier Peak, St. Helens.
Down the coast: Lassen and Shasta.
And of course Vesuvius, Iceland, etcetera; and many in the ring of fire around the Pacific basin, that are disposed toward explosive eruptions (as compared to the (usually) relatively benign eruptions of volcanos like Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea).
Geologic time is a very long horizon for we humans. But it’s only a question of when the next major eruption will occur, not if; that will throw who knows how many cubic km of material and gases into the atmosphere. . . .
Just think:
Even something as relatively ”small” as Tambora in 1815 (estimated to have ejected 100 times as much material as Mt St. Helens) would largely throw all the existing climate models out the window.

Hope this isn’t a harbinger of more activity to come from Pacific Rim of Fire! Worrying that there was little or no notice of this eruption and that experts had “…just declared a normal status for the mountain.”
It would seem that despite our best efforts, the science of predicting volcanic activity still has a long way to go!

Thinking back, Tallbloke predicted an eruption right about now.

Weve also had 2 other eruptions this week – Mt Etna and Columbias Galero volcano

How long until we learn that it was due to global warming?
IanM

Infojunkies need data, now damnit! :p
Shame that Dr Klemetti is busy and ill and the Smithsonian/USGS pages only get updated once a week. And in a correlation hopefully not equalling causation kind of way, this isn’t prophetic:
“Another volcano anniversary falls this week – this time the 1883 eruption of Krakatau in Indonesia.”
From what I can find, so far Sinabung doesn’t appear to be doing that much, and hopefully it’ll stay that way.

Eduardo Ferreyra says:
August 29, 2010 at 1:23 am
Ivanka Charvatova´s paper:
http://www.giurfa.com/charvatova.pdf

re Les Francis

These are classified as B risk volcano’s in Indonesia. – There are plenty of A risk ones to look out for and the Indonesian Volcanic risk and geo thermal department has plenty of work on their hands and a limited budget to go around

Given volcano’s potential role in climate change, do you know if funding has impoved for research and monitoring?

Ulric Lyons says: ‘I have mentioned on previous threads that there are 179yr `strings` of volcanic events within similar locations…’
Looking elsewhere (Climate Research News) it seems ‘the precessional rotation parameter is linked with the 179-yr cycle of the solar inertial motion previously identified by Jose (1965). A new prolonged minimum of solar activity may be imminent.’
There appears to be a very big story lurking here, but I can’t quite get my head around it.

Boris Behncke predicted this uptick/reactivation of Etna about 5 months ago. He was reading the seismic activity.
http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/2010/08/a_busy_day_for_etna_and_galera.php#comments
In any case there are no signs that at Etna a major destructive eruption is imminent (that would mean, a flank eruption from low elevation). What I consider the most likely scenario is that in the next few weeks to months we will see a gradual reactivation of the summit craters, and then for some time – which may be months to years – summit eruptions, which are the most beautiful thing one can imagine, and they are not a threat to populated areas and human property. They might occasionally disrupt air traffic, because they can release significant quantities of ash.
Then, as more magma usually rises into the volcano’s feeder system than exits from its summit craters, the mountain will gradually swell and become more unstable, and this will be recognized by the seismic activity and by the deformation monitoring, as well as gas emissions. In case of a major flank eruption – especially one from low on the flanks – there will possibly many weeks of premonitory deformation and seismicity, as was the case before the last eruption of this kind, in 1669.
The worst scenario we’re imagining is a flank eruption that develops extremely fast and emits lava at very high rates, as in 1981, when lava initially traveled at a speed of 3 km per hour – and the nearest population centers were 7 km away. Luckily in that case the lava passed between two villages. That was on the sparsely populated northwest side of Etna, near the town of Randazzo. An eruption of this type on the very densely populated southeast side would be an enormous challenge.
Funny anyway how I just posted that big Etna story one week ago and now the volcano is getting a bit more active.
I will keep you informed …
Posted by: Boris Behncke, Catania, Italy
b | August 26, 2010 3:27 PM