Max winds 75MPH, Category 1.
Bulletin:
WTNT31 KNHC 232033
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST MON AUG 23 2010
…DANIELLE BECOMES A HURRICANE…THE SECOND OF THE ATLANTIC
SEASON…
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…15.4N 41.5W
ABOUT 1320 MI…2120 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…987 MB…29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 41.5 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH…28 KM/HR…AND IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/HR…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES…20 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES…110 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB…29.15 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
When Danielle becomes a major hurricane this week, Richard Holle’s prediction will be confirmed as exact to date.
Oh Mon petit Danielle, you are so far and so weak!
I am going to stick with 7 major storms, 50 percent tropical storms and 50 percent hurricanes.
Chances are it won’t make shore.
Cat 2 to 3 Possible..
Paul
Told ya.
From the earlier thread:
And just imagine the excitement that’ll ensue in the newsrooms if the prediction holds for it to become a major hurricane by midweek.
So, did they declare it a hurricane without flying a single Herculese through it, again? Al Gore needs to lend the Atlantic some viagra if we are going to get anything with potential for serious rapage.
Meanwhile TS Frank weakens…. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml
NOAA predicts….
14-20 Named Storms,
8-12 Hurricanes
4-6 Major Hurricanes
They have a ways to go. I wonder what kind of odds one could get in Vegas on their predictions being right?
So, “48-hour formation potential” – formation of what exactly? A tropical depression, a named storm, etc.?
Dr. Hansimian’s forecast of 6-8 hurricanes appears to be on track.
Estimated intensity of 3 mph less keeps this storm below hurricane category 1. Watch NOAA closely when it estimates/forecasts storm intensity of these mid-Atlantic storms without actual measurements from airplanes. It always increases the estimate above the hurricane category threshold when nobody can take a real measurement.
I was off by 3 days for date of second named hurricane of the season in the comment below made almost two weeks ago.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/10/klotzbach-on-atlantic-hurricane-season-analysis/#comment-454057
Now for the hurricanologist he can cull his list of hurricane seasons to those with a La Nina and the second hurricane coming in the last week of August, recalculate his ACE average for those conditions, and update his forecast for the rest of the season.
In fact, since the list of those hurricanes is included in the OP for the Klotzbach thread referenced above I just added them up for myself. There are nine seasons on record with a La Nina and the second named hurricane happening on or after August 22. The seasonal average ace for those years is 129.7
In the comment above I made almost two weeks ago I predicted this season’s ACE to come out at, wait for it now, one hundred twenty nine.
Stop Global Dumbing Now says:
August 23, 2010 at 3:17 pm
Dr. Hansimian’s forecast of 6-8 hurricanes appears to be on track.
so true, and you know, Dr. Hansimian would work for bananas literally, compared to all the data crunchers we have that can not even get close.
But you really never know to be honest.
Oh look!
I think I see where the NOAA forecast got hurt. A La Nina that had grown very weak to almost moderate in July 2010 at 0.94 cooler SST than neutral weakened a whole bunch since then. It’s expected to persist through November but it sure isn’t very significant on the power scale so far.
I believe the theory goes (correct me if I’m wrong) that La Nina in the pacific reduces wind sheer at some critical altitude where tropical depressions form in the Atlantic and where the reduced wind sheer allows the depressions to more easily spin up into an organized storm.
Invest 96L (Red cherry drop on the map) may become Earl within the next few days…
“MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH…”
Near enough to ‘call it’ in time for the evening news …
.
The CO2-hurricane frequency/strength relationship has been adequately debunked. Don’t waste any time or breath on it.
The season is normal (within typical range) and some may make it to landfall. That we have reasonable warning (advance notice) is the key.
That anyone wants to make a CAGW issue out of it is just grist for our mill. 🙂
Looks like a hurricane to me http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg This is not a temporary whirl with no staying power, it has good symmetry and outflow.
Tom in Florida says:
August 23, 2010 at 2:24 pm
When Danielle becomes a major hurricane this week, Richard Holle’s prediction will be confirmed as exact to date.
Reply:
are you referring to this one?
PostPosted: Sat Jul 31, 2010 3:04 pm.
Survey number of storms in August
Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2009 2:38 am
Posts: 43
Location: Concordia, Kansas
I voted for two named storms, one really weak one around the 20th to 23rd, and a stronger one later forming around the 25th and making landfall Florida panhandle close to end of month, 30th or 31st.
Or this one?;
August 16, 2010 at 12:39 am
Made a my space blog comment on the updated forecast I posted on WUWT “thoughts on the 2010 hurricane season.”
2010 detailed Hurricane forecast
Current mood: adventurous
Today I climbed out on a big limb, with chainsaw in tow, with this forecast?
There are four ingredients needed to make a large storm, available heat energy, moisture to change phase states to generate the low pressure zone, ion potentials to drive the “precipitation” (not just condensation), and a global lunar tidal effect to drive the wind patterns that tighten up, as the tropical air mass that becomes the tropical storm, moves off of the ITCZ and further away from the equator, the Coriolis effect kicks in and strengthens, to assist the formation of the cyclonic circulation along with the associated ionic drives.
We have been having three of these ingredients showing up in the three named disturbances so far. However the global “pole to equator ion charge gradient” is currently stagnating, all of the seasonal drivers of these shifts in charge gradients will occur later in the year than is the”Normal” (although nonrandom pattern of distribution.)
The solar cycle has been slow, but is starting to pick up as we approach the heliocentric conjunctions of three of the four outer planets that drive the global ion potentials that create and drive these large storms. I have posted a detailed forecast of the dates to expect these storms to be produced several time over the past year.
Due to the geomagnetic effects of the increased coupling, of the solar fields extended out from flares and coronal holes, as the Earth passes through the focused area that lines up heliocentrically with the outer planets:
Neptune on the 20th of August, the Earth will have an increased homopolar generator charge potential inducted into it, then relaxed over the next two weeks (till end of August 2010) that will induce the typical discharge pattern that generates the large flows of ions that allow the global tropical storms to attain sizable effects above cat 1 – cat 2 levels, because of increased wind and precipitation production, powered by the enhanced action of the opposing ion charges swept into the cyclonic flow structure.
September 21st through 24th 2010 will see the bigger set of conjunctions that will do a much better job of driving the intensity of resultant global tropical and extra-tropical storms, that form on the discharge side of the ion flux patterns, after these dates. No the season is not over yet.
The lunar declinational tides that peak at the culmination of the declinational sweep occur at Maximum South on 19th August then heads North with tropical moisture in tow until the effects has run its course by the 2nd to 4th of September 2010, is the window of opportunity for the first weaker outbreak of global TS.
The lunar declination is Maximum South again on the 15th of September 2010, ahead of the peak of charging of the Uranus / Jupiter heliocentric conjunction of the 24th of September 2010, and it should be in phase with the movement of tropical moisture laden warm air crossing the equator following the moon, as it moves North across the equator on the 23rd of September.
The same day of the peak charging effects of the homopolar generator as the Earth responds to the increased inductive effects carried on the solar wind to affect the coupling through to the outer planets from the sun out of a large coronal hole created on the sun just for the purpose of providing the magnetic field energy needed. This powers up the cycle of positive ion charging along the ITCZ, by pushing more moisture into the lower atmosphere, to then add drive to the ion discharging phase, driving the resultant outbreak of global wide intense tropical storms, that will occur post conjunction.
By the time the Moon reaches maximum North declination on the 29th of September 2010, the global ACE values will be close to peak for the year. Inertial momentum of the global systems should carry on the enhanced zonal flow through the next two weeks.
With the continual decreasing electromagnetic coupling as the Earth moves past these outer planets the severe weather activity levels, will drop with continued attempted recovery enhancements at the lunar declinational culminations, until by the time of the synod conjunction of Venus and Earth on the 29th of October 2010, we will see a last hurrah, then a slow shift into the storms of a deep cold NH winter.
That’s what they said (NOAA), unfortunately, in this ‘numbers’ game (and in a game where both the ‘prediction’ and ‘call’ are made by the same party) things could be/may be too easily ‘rigged’ to achieve a/the desired outcome (high or targeted score) … perchance you don’t see/don’t grasp this?
Where are the ‘refs’, the auditors on this/on this one (the hurricane count in light of/versus NOAA’s ‘predictions’)?
Certainly _not_ a case of ‘nothing but net‘ if all your hurricanes come in at or NEAR (as NOAA seems to have called this one; see bulletin above in posted article) 75 MPH wind speed from the __low__ side …
.
Dave Springer says:
August 23, 2010 at 4:45 pm
Generally it’s expressed as El Niño causing shear; neutral and La Niña don’t affect the Atlantic as much. I don’t have a good feel for just how the transition goes. La Niña’s cooler SSTs impact Pacific storms, but I don’t follow those as closely as Atlantic storms.
———————
co2insanity says:
August 23, 2010 at 2:48 pm
I believe the NOAA prediction is for the Atlantic season, Frank is an eastern Pacific storm and doesn’t count against the NOAA prediction.
Along with my long held contention that, “Summer is hotter than Winter.” I also have come to the astonishing conclusion that, ” Hurricanes occur mainly during the Hurricane season.”…. I know, I know. Controversial stuff. But I gotta call it as I see it fellas;-)
She’s a very healthy looking CAT 1, no doubt.
[As everyone knows….no two Saffir-Simpson children are the same!].
Good anticyclonic outflow in all quadrants, symmetric, buzz-saw appearance of the central dense overcast, wisps of cirrus being pulled away at high altitudes and in all directions from the thunderstorms in all directions, as if with an artist’s brush..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html
With warms SST’s and favorable upper-level conditions in its path…
Whaddaya bet it becomes a strong CAT 4 within 24 hours?
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Looks like Danielle will miss my home, which is all I care about during hurricane season. i also like to read the discussion from hurricane center more than the warnings, gives you a little better sense of what is really happening. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/232033.shtml?
mikelorrey says:
August 23, 2010 at 2:48 pm
So, did they declare it a hurricane without flying a single Herculese through it, again?
Looks that way. It’s located at some 40°W, some 2400 miles from the US.
According to http://www.hurricanehunters.com/mission.html their coverage area only goes out to 55°W. See http://www.hurricanehunters.com/mission.html
Long ways to go for a minor event. Not very fast planes, no in-flight refueling ability.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/232033.shtml says “Dvorak T-numbers have risen to T4.0 from TAFB and SAB…and Danielle is upgraded to a hurricane on that basis.” T-numbers are assigned from analysis of satellite imagery, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique .
From the NHC Discussion…
“the convective canopy of Danielle has become more axisymmetric over
the past few hours…indicating that vertical shear over the system
is now relaxing. A 1620 UTC AMSR-E microwave pass showed a distinct
low-level center of circulation that is displaced a little to the
southeast of the mid-level center of rotation. Despite that
structure…Dvorak T-numbers have risen to t4.0 from TAFB and
SAB…and Danielle is upgraded to a hurricane on that basis. The
cyclone appears to be going through a period of rapid
intensification…”
Danielle and future Earl are both currently projected to spin far away from the US. More disappointing news for those waiting for the second-coming of Katrina (their Messiah).
Blow, winds, and crack your cheeks! rage! blow!
You cataracts and hurricanoes, spout
Till you have drench’d our steeples, drown’d the cocks!
You sulphurous and thought-executing fires,
Vaunt-couriers to oak-cleaving thunderbolts,
Singe my white head! And thou, all-shaking thunder,
Smite flat the thick rotundity o’ the world!
Crack nature’s moulds, an germens spill at once,
That make ingrateful man!
_Jim says:
August 23, 2010 at 6:31 pm
I believe the folks who make NOAA’s seasonal forecasts are not the same ones who produce the operational forecasts on individual storms.
While they sometimes call a storm too early for several meteorologists, for the most part the forecasts are consumed with trying to figure out what storms will be doing. They’re willing to stand up against people who are harming the science, see http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/07/09/hurricane.official/index.html for a good example.
If you feel really strongly about this, you might lobby our congress critter to separate out or abandon the seasonal forecast. Danielle looks like it was going to be a hurricane soon enough – perhaps you should focus on storms that will only marginally reach a threshhold.
Better – learn how to read the satellite imagery, I think you have access to essentially the same data the NHC has, and come up with your own T-numbers.
Richard Holle says:{August 23, 2010 at 6:21 pm}
Actually I was referring to a post you made in early July. I lost the link but copied the text to refer back to. A portion of that text in which you said:
“Correlation may not be causation, but I have seen repeating patterns in which the normal TS production (TS and Cat 1-2 storms) happens when there is a lunar declination culmination, but close to or just after a Synod conjunction with one or more of the outer planets, the extra energy drives the maximum storm energy into the Cat 3-4- and 5 range.
This year we had a conjunction with Saturn on the 22nd of March, spawning three weeks of strong storms and flash floods globally, but will not be seeing any other until the three other outer planets all come together between the 20th of August and the 21st, 22nd and 24th of September 2010.
This should give us a break in intense tropical storms until Mid August, then we will see a rapid uptick in activity until the peak of these effects are over in late October. ”
Pretty accurate so far.
Ric, I do, for land-based storms/systems (I spot/chase tornadoes – or I used to) over the continental US but I don’t have time of late to also include the Atlantic extending to Africa …
.
Can you riddle me the answer to this Ric – how close to 75 MPH was this call?
Within 10 MPH? 15 MPH?
Did it include forward storm motion in this estimate (note: storm movement was cited as 17 MPH in the bulletin)?
.
The process is the same one, the amount of details varies, if you would like to view the resultant US East coast precipitation my method forecast (back in December of 2007) from the pass up the eastern seaboard of Danielle.
Click on my name then use the calendar feature to look for the 30th and 31st of August, or just click the “NEXT” text button til you can see the off shore pattern this same method forecast from raw daily data.
Ric, I’ve got their ‘game’ now … these are educated estimates of wind conditions based on other parameters; IOW, they’re using proxies (to cut to the quick). No longer do we need actual wind measurements to ‘play’ this game according to NOAA/NWS rules (I know, I know; it would be ridiculous to send a hurricane A/C out this far just for the purposes of a ‘numbers’ game/wind measurement … wait ’til it’s close to land).
Per:
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST MON AUG 23 2010
DANIELLE … . A 2148 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE WITH LITTLE OR NO VERTICAL TILT…
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS MORE SYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS EARLIER AND CONSISTS OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND SPIRAL BANDS WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -80 C.
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5/77 KT AND 4.0/65 KT…RESPECTIVELY AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE NEAR 4.5/77 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOLLOWS THE HIGHER ESTIMATES AND IS SET AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
.
It’s cold and calm here on the Pacific. That entire world wide warming hasn’t hit yet, though any millenium now, it might.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif
graph of total precipitatable water in the atmosphere, they report you decide?
Careful April. It hit 99 in parts of the SF Bay Area today. Even though it has been a record cool year here, and it’s already August 23 and today’s the first “spare the air” day we’ve had all summer, it must be a sure sign of global warming that it hit 99 today. Tomorrow may even hit 101. I’ll have to call Al and donate some carbon credits to stave off the global warming god.
Michael Jankowski says:
August 23, 2010 at 7:29 pm
Danielle and future Earl are both currently projected to spin far away from the US. More disappointing news for those waiting for the second-coming of Katrina (their Messiah).
========================
Huh??? Who wants that??
Why would anyone wish a disaster like that?
I gotta admit, from King Lear to The Tempest…he had a WAY with the English language like none other ever.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
_Jim says:
August 23, 2010 at 8:21 pm
I don’t know how close, and I’m not certain of how things are estimated. The forward motion is included (i.e. the right side of the storm has stronger winds than the left). Fluid dynamicaly, the wrong thing to do IMHO, but in terms of wave action at sea and wind impact on land, quite defensible.
In bigger storms with a clear eye, I think the rotational speed is measured by looking at how far the clouds rotate between two images. A tropical storm’s wind speed does vary with altitude due to sea surface friction at low altitudes and the shape of the eye at higher altitudes (the stadium effect, see http://www.milli-bar.com/wsoldani/Katrina/Katrina6.htm )
——————————–
_Jim says:
August 23, 2010 at 8:33 pm
The only direct measurements are from ocean buoys, land based anemometers, and dropsondes that take a lucky path in the eyewall. Dropsondes are also used to get the air pressure in the eye, probably the most important measure of a storms overall intensity.
The hurricane plane observers do not directly measure sea surface wind speeds. The do measure above surface winds, but flying in the eyewall near the surface is far too risky. Instead, they adjust flight level winds to what is ordinarily expected at the surface and look at the texture of the waves in the eye.
The really important information from the flights are the conditions at various altitudes. Storms are 3-D animals. Surface conditions are important for damage estimates, evacuations, storm surge, etc. but there’s much more information to be gathered aloft. See http://www.hurricanehunters.com/mission.html
See http://www.wunderground.com/education/hugo1.asp for an account of entering Hugo’s eyewall too low and hitting a eyewall vortex. They nearly became the first spotter flight to not return.
In the future, you may spare the basics and assume a higher level of understanding of all this … I’ve been at this game/the weather/the dynamics involved for a loooooooong time now. Did I mention I chase- used to – tornadoes? Tornado chaser … began in the late 70’s, pre-internet, pre-NEXRAD as a matter of fact; relied on the human intel from operators sitting at the consoles of WSR-57 RADARs providing summaries in those days … did I mentioned that?
.
Ric Werme says:
August 23, 2010 at 9:41 pm
=============================
Fascinating, information-packed post.
Thank you.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
_Jim says:
@
Ric Werme August 23, 2010 at 7:33 pm
Ric, I do, for land-based storms/systems (I spot/chase tornadoes – or I used to) over the continental US but I don’t have time of late to also include the Atlantic extending to Africa …
========================
So if you “don’t have time as of late” to include the mightiest cyclones on Earth extending to Africa, (out in the Atlantic)….then why are you even adding your opinion here?
If you are so busy, then why is it a concern for you??
Eric (skeptic) is right. Looks like a hurricane for sure.
And a damn ******* healthy one, at that.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201006_sat.html#a_topad
Not sure where your cynicism is coming as trying to fire up some sort of conspiracy.
But hurricanes, especially the Cape Verde sort, are are a force to be reckoned with.
They are immune to politics, and are not subject to the evening news….or any conspiracy…right or left.
Deal with it!
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
I still call for zero major storms hitting the US this year just like last year when I was 199% accurate in my prediction.
Don’t look at the warming cloud tops.
Look instead to the clockwise “blur” of cirrus superimposed over a counterclockwise flow below.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html
These are fascinating creatures, no?
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
_Jim (August 23, 2010 at 8:33 pm)
Yes, they guessed high yesterday afternoon and evening, but it was a very good guess based on a couple of differing indicators and their own look at the satellite and upper air charts.
There was some bias earlier in season IMO with the B and C storms (forgot the names), and there might be systematic bias especially early and late season, but not with this storm. Still a hurricane this morning from the looks of it, but it got choppy overnight (dry air influx?) Still, during peak season and these conditions, I wouldn’t worry about it falling apart.
Doesn’t look like much to me. Let’s ask farmer John.
So John, this something to be worried about?
Nah, is just windy. And we’re hardy sturdy people don’t bother with a little wind. We break more wind after dinner after all.
Sssssssssssssssssssh See, nuthing, Ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssh OMG nooo! My eyes, my eyes!
Just a reminder to our inland friends. The strongest hurricane winds are located at the very center of the storm and decrease rapidly as one gets away from there. Sometimes satellite pictures give the false impression that the entire cloud cover has winds of hurricane force.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201006_wind.html#a_topad
Tom in Florida says:
August 24, 2010 at 4:57 am
Other than the eye, of course, but that doesn’t hold together long after landfall. Also, the greatest damage inland is due to flooding, especially in weaker storms (where wind damage is low) and if the remnants stall (e.g. Hurricane Agnes in Pennsylvania and many more recent storms).
(I was in Pittsburgh when Agnes rained out over northeastern PA, so that’s always the first that comes to my mind.)
OK don’t look at the loss of the central dense overcast, too. Latest satellite picture does not show a healthy storm…at least for the time being.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
Definitely eating my words on an earlier post. *Yum*….they taste like paper.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Chris; Just some dry air being pulled into the systems as the secondary lunar tidal bulge slides back toward the equator, when the moon crosses the equator on the 26th, the primary bulge effects will start to pull these all north again.
Should be moving faster by the 27th, 28th, then powering up heading for the North Western point of it’s path by the 30th, 31st.
http://linkification.com/wx/2010/dry3.jpg