Draft Report by NOAA CSI
The extreme surface warmth over western Russia during July and early August is mostly a product of the strong and persistent blocking high.
…
The indications are that the current blocking event is intrinsic to the natural variability of summer climate in this region…
From the freezer to the stove, so have gone surface temperatures over Russia in 2010. Only recently, the concerns were centered on the hardship inflicted by one of the coldest winters in Russia since the mid-20th Century. The current heat wave is therefore all the more remarkable coming on the heels of such extreme cold.
By early summer, the anomalous temperature patterns began to change compared to prior months. Warmth,—-which was in many ways much welcomed initially, emerged over central Russia during June. These incipient warm conditions escaped notice, mostly because they did not exert negative impacts in so far as the climatological June temperatures of western Russia are about 5°C cooler than their late July peaks. It only became apparent in hindsight that the June warmth was but a mere hint of things to come.
Globally averaged temperatures averaged during the first 6 months of 2010 were the warmest on record (since about 1880) according to analyses produced by NOAA and NASA. Not all areas were warm, however, and in particular most of Russia did not contribute to the record global conditions during the first half of the year.
Unusual heat commenced almost in synchronicity with the turn of the calander to July, as if orchestrated by an overzealous conductor responding to nature’s seasonal cycle. The inflicted areas spanned a wide reach of western Russia, Belorussia, the Ukraine, and the Baltic nations. Through its dogged persistence, the heat wave built in intensity as summer progressed to its normally hottest weeks. By late July and early August, numerous cities witnessed a crescendo of record breaking daily readings near 40°C, more than +10°C warmer than what would normally have been experienced at this warmest time of year.
Click here to download Google Earth KML file.
Western Russia had become an epicenter of anomalously high temperatures in July 2010, though many other land temperatures for July were above normal including eastern North America, Europe, and China.
Preliminary readings suggest that Moscow’s July 2010 temperatures were the warmest month during the prior 130 years. Statistical measures quantify the extreme character of this heat wave, with a greater than 4 standardized anomaly for Moscow during July. In other words, July’s warmth was four times greater than the expected variability of July historical fluctuations about their long-term climatology.
The impacts of the heat are only beginning to reveal themselves. Heat stress has led to human mortality across western Russia, and it is possible that the toll of lost lives will rival that experienced during the 2003 European summer heat wave. High temperatures, and a general absence of rainfall over western Russia has led to drought conditions and widespread crop loss. Wild fires have raged in the region, both over grasslands and forests, severely degrading air quality.
What is the historical context for the July heat wave over western Russia? During the period 1880-2009, the region’s monthly July surface temperatures have experienced several very warm years of about +3°C departures (1931 , 1955, 1981, 1988, and 2002), and comparably cold Julys having about -3°C departure (1950, 1957, 1968, 1976, and 1994). Warm Julys alternating with cold Julys describes the typical sequence of events over western Russia during the last 130 years, with little or no discernible trend in July temperatures since 1880. Yet, the July 2010 anomalies averaged over western Russia will exceed the warmest Julys on record, and such an extreme event demands an explanation.
The Russian heat wave of 2010 has been an extreme and abrupt event. The July heat did not simply follow on the heals of a sequence of progressively warmer summers over recent decades, but stands out as a discrete event that is reminiscent of the often sharp year-to-year swings in this region’s July surface temperatures during the last 130 years. In many ways,the heat wave is a “black swan” event in that it is well beyond the normal expectations in the instrumental record—it is an outlier that is having an extreme societal impact.
Blocks are not an uncommon occurrence over Eurasia in summer, with a episodes of July blocking in the region between 0-60°E evident during the past half century. This region is vulnerable to episodes of blocking owing to physical factors related to the region’s location downstream of the Atlantic westerly jet.
Whereas an event of this magnitude was unexpected for the summer of 2010, and indeed there was little if any advance warming from long lead seasonal forecasts, it is nonetheless important to assess the factors that may have been responsible for such an extreme heat wave. There is strong evidence that the immediate cause can be placed at the doorstep of an extreme pattern of atmospheric winds—widely referred to as blocking. In the situation of anticyclonic blocking such as developed over western Russia in early July 2010, the normal west-to-east movement of weather systems is inhibited, with the center of a blocking experiencing persistently quiescent weather.
The sector exhibits high climatological frequency of blocking during July, with an average of 15% of summer days experiencing a blocking conditions. During the first 42 days of the summer of 2010 (thru 11 August) this region has experienced 60% blocking days. This event is the most prolonged blocking event over Western Russia for the period since 1948. The duration of this blocking event has been particularly long, and the intensity of the high pressure anomaly itself has been unusually strong. The intensity of the positive 500mb height anomalies averaged over the geographic region of eastern Europe and western Russia during July 2010 exceeds any prior occurrence of anticyclonic blocking. Preliminary estimates indicate that the strength of the height anomaly at 500mb during July 2010 is equal to nearly 4 times the standard deviation of July heights—a departure amplitude similar to that in the region’s July surface temperatures. Typically, there is little persistence of the circulation pattern from July to August, although the current block that formed in early July has continued with great strength through the second week of August.
The extreme surface warmth over western Russia during July and early August is mostly a product of the strong and persistent blocking high. Surface temperatures have soared as a result of the combination of clear skies, sinking motion within the environment of the high pressure causing compressional heating of air, the lack of any temporary relief owing to the blocking of the typical cold fronts that cool the region intermittently in summer. Add to this scenario the cumulative effect of drought that began in early summer which has caused soils to dry and plants to desiccate to wilting point , thereby causing additional surface warming via land feedbacks as the blocking condition persisted. These are all well-known and studied physical processes that have accompanied summertime blocking and heat waves in the past.
Much of the intensity of the current heat wave, and also the pattern of surface temperature conditions across Eurasia during July 2010, can be recreated from the atmospheric blocking event itself. The diagnostic procedure involves standard methods applied to the historical record of analyzed 500 mb heights and surface temperatures during the prior period of 1900-2008. The method of statistical regression is used to understand how surface temperature changes during a typical blocking occurrence over Russia during July, and is a method that can be used to infer causal relationships.
The temperature pattern accompanying a “garden variety” block consists of a localized +1 to +2°C warming over western Russia, with somewhat weaker coolness toward the Urals. July 2010 was not a garden variety block, but was instead the most extreme block in the post-1900 period. While there is no analogue from which to draw an assessment of the expected impact on temperatures form such a block, one can nonetheless use the historical regression relation in order to infer the impact of this extreme July 2010 block. The process involves multiplying the regression pattern by the standardized departure of the height index observed for July 2010. The calculation offers a meaningful evaluation of the surface temperature response to the extent that the height-temperature relation is linear. The results indicate a surface warming in excess of +5°C is expected over western Russia in response to the July 2010 blocking high, accompanied by a downstream pattern of about -3°C coolness over the Urals and warmth of +2°C to +3*C over northern China, Mongolia, and northeastern Russia.
The comparison of the above reqression map with the observed temperature anomaly map for July 2010 clarifies the cause for this heat wave. The strong agreement between the July 2010 observed pattern of Eurasian surface temperatures and that pattern attributable to the impact of upper tropospheric blocking provides key evidence that the block is the immediate cause for the heat wave (and related temperature conditions over adjacent countries). Blocking events are typically of 1-2 week duration, and by contrast the 2010 situation is highly unusual in that blocking has existed over western Russia on virtually every day form the beginning of July until the middle of August. The cumulative impact of such prolonged blocking has led to the extreme nature of the surface impacts on temperature, soil conditions, and rainfall.
What has been the role of human-induced climate change in the Russian heat wave of 2010? As indicated at the beginning of this report, globally averaged surface temperatures during the first 6 months of 2010 were the warmest since about 1880 based on NOAA and NASA analyses.
A time series of 12-month running mean globally averaged surface temperatures anomalies from NASA data further indicates that the latest 12-month period is likely warmer than the prior record warmest year of 1998 (relative to an 1880-2009 period of analysis).
This current condition in global mean surface temperature is thus consistent with prior conclusions of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report that “warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level”. The IPCC Synthesis Report goes on to state that “most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th Century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations”.
A comprehensive analysis of observed changes in extreme daily temperatures for the period 1901-2003 also reveals symptoms of a warming planet with a majority of stations over western Russia and eastern Europe (and also over Canada) showing significant increasing trends of warm daytime and warm nighttime temperatures.
Despite this strong evidence for a warming planet, greenhouse gas forcing fails to explain the 2010 heat wave over western Russia. The natural process of atmospheric blocking, and the climate impacts induced by such blocking, are the principal cause for this heat wave. It is not known whether, or to what exent, greenhouse gas emissions may affect the frequency or intensity of blocking during summer. It is important to note that observations reveal no trend in a daily frequency of July blocking over the period since 1948, nor is there an appreciable trend in the absolute values of upper tropospheric summertime heights over western Russia for the period since 1900.
The indications are that the current blocking event is intrinsic to the natural variability of summer climate in this region, a region which has a climatological vulnerability to blocking and associated heat waves (e.g., 1960, 1972, 1988). A high index value for blocking days is not a necessary condition for high July surface temperature over western Russia—the warm summers of 1981, 1999, 2001, and 2002 did not experience an unusual number of blocking days.
A clear understanding of the causes for the 2010 Russian heat wave is important for informing decision makers and the public on whether they need to transition from a preparedness mode of precautionary responses to an adaptation mode involving investment responses and actions. Our assessment indicates that, owing to the mainly natural cause for this heat wave, it is very unlikely that a similar event will recur next summer or in the immediate future (next decade). Whereas this phenomena has been principally related to a natural extreme event, its impacts may very well forebode the impact that a projected warming of surface temperatures could have by the end of the 21st Century due to greenhouse gas increases.
. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. “]
The 2007 IPCC report highlights surface temperature projections for the period 2090-2099 under a business-as-ususal scenario that reveals +5°C to +7°C warming warming of annually average temperatures over much of Eurasia under an aggressive A2 scenario.
As we learn from our 2010 experience what a sustained heat wave of +5°C to+10°C implies for human health, water resources, and agricultural productivity, a more meaningful appreciation for the potential consequences of the projected climate changes will emerge. It is clear that the random occurrence of a summertime block in the presence of the projected changes in future surface temperature would produce heat waves materially more severe than the 2010 event.
Hot weather is climate. El Nino is climate.
This animation offers one perspective of the high pressure area over Russian breaking up and a low pressure area moving in;
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z200anim.shtml
and this animation offers another:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/26609
When (if ever) they can predict these kinds of events, and warn people, then climate science will actually be useful.
There is one thing I’m wondering: Could the fires have affected temperatures or temperature readings? I haven’t seen this question asked. What is the potential of a forest fire to heat the area around it? Or nearby thermometers. I have no idea what the answers might be, just asking.
“”July 2010 was not a garden variety block, but was instead the most extreme block in the post-1900 period. While there is no analogue from which to draw an assessment of the expected impact on temperatures form such a block,”
“The indications are that the current blocking event is intrinsic to the natural variability of summer climate in this region, a region which has a climatological vulnerability to blocking and associated heat waves (e.g., 1960, 1972, 1988).””
(^quotes from body of post)
Reply;
What we have effecting these blocking highs is the pattern of Lunar declinational tides when the solar / lunar declination is ~23.5 degrees, half way back from the 18.6 year maximum culmination angle, if you use the analog years 1955, 1973, 1992, for the descending times and 1964, 1982, and 2001, for the times the angle is increasing toward Maximum through the same tidal synergistic bulge that creates this blocking enhancement, you can see that for most of the cycles this repeats, and from the previous patterns, I don’t see it being much cooler next year.
If there any researchers from the affected area that are interested in how to do an analog forecast based on the past data that takes into consideration past real data, that has been shown to repeat with predictability, email me. I will send you the program code to look at this problem using the method posted on my (name linked) web site.
Let me know if I can be of assistance, Richard Holle.
No doubt there were some heat-stress related deaths, but look at the photos showing air quality conditions between June and August: I would be very interested to know how many of those deaths were more associated with respiratory problems than with the actual temperature.
Who writes this stuff? Sounds more like someone with an over-zealous penchant for literary flair, rather than an objective analysis:
“From the freezer to the stove”
“as if orchestrated by an overzealous conductor responding to nature’s seasonal cycle”
“crescendo of record breaking daily readings”
“an epicenter of anomalously high temperatures”
Then, notwithstanding the conclusion that the Russian event was caused by a blocking high, they feel compelled to add the obligatory nods to the party line (ironically evoking days when Russian authors had to add in the obligatory nod to Lenin and Stalin):
“This current condition in global mean surface temperature is thus consistent with prior conclusions of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report that ‘warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level’.”
and
“As we learn from our 2010 experience what a sustained heat wave of +5°C to+10°C implies for human health, water resources, and agricultural productivity, a more meaningful appreciation for the potential consequences of the projected climate changes will emerge. It is clear that the random occurrence of a summertime block in the presence of the projected changes in future surface temperature would produce heat waves materially more severe than the 2010 event. ”
Can’t they just stick to the science and drop the rhetoric?
‘Our assessment indicates that, owing to the mainly natural cause for this heat wave, it is very unlikely that a similar event will recur next summer or in the immediate future (next decade).’
I wouldn’t bet on that, because blocking comes in bunches and may last a decade.
Hubert Lamb found there is a quasi-periodicity of blocking approximately every 50 years.
Starting around 1200 AD and coming forward he lost track of it during the LIA, but picked up the thread again in the early nineteenth century. Needless to say, it’s the winter blocking which will encourage many Britons to emigrate.
Someone needs to let Gavin know:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2012609669_climate13.html
“Stott and NASA’s Gavin Schmidt, at the Goddard Institute of Space Studies in New York, said it’s better to think in terms of odds: Warming might double the chances for heat waves, for example. “That is exactly what’s happening,” he said, “a lot more warm extremes and less cold extremes.”
Maybe Gavin doesn’t read the news from the southern half of the continent he lives on. Would you buy a secondhand climate model from this man?
el gordo says:
August 19, 2010 at 11:38 pm
Needless to say, it’s the winter blocking which will encourage many Britons to emigrate.
I quite enjoy ‘proper snowy winters’. They make the british summer seem warm…
Eric Anderson (August 19, 2010 at 11:28 pm) quotes with disapproval: “as if orchestrated by an overzealous conductor responding to nature’s seasonal cycle”
Argh… give them a break, Eric; the odd flourish adds to it all for me and shows some depth to the author. Rounds it out.
All work and no play…
Sadly, the winter temperatures in northern Russia weren’t used in
calculating (cell filling or interpolating) the grid cells NOAA and
the folks at Goddard used to set up their recent “warmest”
pronouncements for the temps between December 09 and June
2010.
A huge number of Russian reporting stations have been retired,
and others have the usual problems when humans are supposed
to report on station readings or make repairs while the outside
temperatures hover at -20 C. or lower.
Stretching station reports into the Artic or infilling cells using
previous readings (or just making up numbers) does not make
for reliable northern hemispheric montly or annual averages.
Tallbloke says: I quite enjoy ‘proper snowy winters’. They make the british summer seem warm…
I was thinking of the poor baby boomers suffering from fuel poverty, especially if they are forced to pay for windmills.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1303694/Green-taxes-treble-2020-costing-taxpayers-16bn-year.html?ito=feeds-newsxml
Sounds to me like Russia is just having what would be a typical Texas-like summer. We here are quite familiar with blocking highs, as they tend to happen quite often here this time of year.
I agree with Eric Anderson. If the heat wave around Moscow is a netural phenomenon, why denigrate yourself repeating the obnoxious global warming lies? Since when Western scientists feel that they owe Soviet-style obeisances to the Green party line? “Obligatory nods” to IPCC’s political (unscientific) position are most annoying, and make everything else in the article untrustworthy.
netural = natural
A self-editing function that allows one to fix typos would be most useful.
Was there a MSM story that I missed ? Are the Russians interested in revitalizing the carbon credit market ? The captured heat under the clouds of smoke surely had a interest in the situation, what a sorry world the MSM has us living in.
And of the record cold, human deaths, animal deaths, snow & ice, in the Southern hemisphere they say nothing!
Now, was there not a blocking effect that took place over Asia back in the 90s when smog filled the still air over vast areas of land mass for weeks on end? A late aquaintance of mine was working out there for a while & he claimed it was the El Nino effect. Whether that was true or not I don’t know.
Mike Lockwood found a connection between low solar activity and the occurrence of blocking highs. In winter. Think there is a link to summer blocks?
Australia’s recent spate of severe drought and bushfires in the South East were the result of a blocking high which prevents moist air from the Indian Ocean sweeping across the SE. El Nino plays a role in causing the high. Maybe La Nina affects Russia in a similar way.
Either way it hasn’t stopped some from claiming it’s climate change. The problem is that most commentators have only recently taken notice of weather. The bushies tend to take change in their stride because they live with it. In some cases for many decades.
it is fascinating how fast weather can change… over here max daytime temp. dropped from +37 to +15 in a mere 4 days
Most of the region had below normal temperatures.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/14/more-of-the-moscow-heat-wave-satellite-analysis/
It rained in Moscow this week. The high was 69 and the low was 42. This left last week. I assume some 4,200 acres of peat bogs still have fires. These bogs were under water. They drained them in 1918 and used the peat to burn and create electricity.
Mike M. says:
August 20, 2010 at 2:55 am
Mike Lockwood found a connection between low solar activity and the occurrence of blocking highs. In winter. Think there is a link to summer blocks?
Yes, and he puts it down to a reduction in UV. Interestingly the last period of high blocking days in July was 1970 as shown in the opening graphs, which coincides with a low solar cycle. This trend is the same for the PDO, SOI, GLAAM, NAO and the temperature record.
Funny that NOAA makes a somewhat rational comment for once, when their paint by numbers work of below normal for northern europa during June is wrong, it has actually been deemed to have been normal temperatures during June, but of course they use a reference period of 1961-1990. :p
I just noticed that Russia had the same decade of hot temps – 1930-1940 – as the American dust bowl.
Have they not yet to establish what natural climate variability is within the boundaries of an interglacial & ice-ages before they can attribute weather events to CAGW. I noted the other day some green half-wit banging on about “Climate Disruption”. I expect these events will be direct irrefutable evidence supporting such claims!
For comparison :
“Influence of Sea Surface Temperature on the European Heat Wave of 2003 Summer: An Observational and Modeling Study” by Laura Feudale _& Jagadish Shukla, concluding:
___”It is found that the SST anomalies in the North Sea and surrounding North
Atlantic reduce the baroclinicity in the European region, prevent baroclinic waves to influence the Mediterranean area, and enhance blocking giving rise to heat waves. Then the combined effects of SST anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea, and the positive feedback from dry land surface is to produce an intense heat wave.”
at: ftp://grads.iges.org/pub/ctr/CTR284_ms.pdf ,
while a Russian scientist says the regional heat wave taking place in Russia is not a sign of catastrophic climate change and that the permafrost has been thawing since the last ice age 10,000 years ago, and its rate of thawing is also not catastrophic.
At: http://notrickszone.com/2010/08/12/russian-scientist-extreme-central-russian-heat-wave-not-an-indication-of-a-future-climate-change/
Mike M. says:
August 20, 2010 at 2:55 am
Mike Lockwood found a connection between low solar activity and the occurrence of blocking highs. In winter. Think there is a link to summer blocks?
——————————————————————-
Yes.
“Mike Lockwood of the University of Reading, UK, showed that winter blocking events were more likely to happen over Europe when solar activity is low – triggering freezing winters. Now he says he has evidence from 350 years of historical records to show that low solar activity is also associated with summer blocking events (Environmental Research Letters, in press). “There’s enough evidence to suspect that the jet stream behaviour is being modulated by the sun,” he says.”
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20727730.101-frozen-jet-stream-leads-to-flood-fire-and-famine.html
Anyone from the southern parts of Manitoba, Canada could tell you about summer and winter “blocking”.
David Ball, Rossby waves and Polar front… what’s new next? Bjerknes? LOL
An excellent analysis of the Russian Heat wave event. No single extreme event, heat wave, downpour, flood, etc. could or should ever be attributed to AGW, for it is only the frequency of these types of events, over a longer period, that could be attributed to AGW as climate change can only been seen over a longer period. One quote that I thought important to this point:
“It is not known whether, or to what exent, greenhouse gas emissions may affect the frequency or intensity of blocking during summer.”
Thus, this is an area for further study, as it may, or may not be the case that AGW could increase the frequency of these types of events. But it would be worthy of further investigation.
An important point about those shifting jets and blocking situations. It seems that the stratosphere must cool when the sun is more active and warm when the sun is less active to achieve the observed outcome.
I know that is heretical but it must be so because I cannot see how a strengthening of the inversion at the tropopause (warming stratosphere) could do otherwise than increase atmospheric pressure below the tropopause at the poles yet we see that when the sun is less active. A stronger inversion must oppose upward energy transmission whereas a weaker inversion must facilitate it, obvious really.
Sio, I think something is wrong with the standard assumptions about the net effect of more solar activity on ozone quantities.
That opens a can of worms about CFCs too but, hey, don’t shoot the messenger
At the moment I favour chemical processes in the stratosphere altering the latitudinal position of all the air circulation systems. A more active sun alters the balance of reactions in the stratosphere so that the cooling effect of more ozone destruction by increased solar activity outweighs the effect of warming from solar particles hitting ozone molecules. The balance of ozone creation/destruction seems to be a largely unknown feature despite the historical assumption that more solar input leads to net warming. The observation that ozone quantities fell during the warmer period and are now recovering fits with that proposition.
So on balance I think more solar activity leads to faster ozone destruction leading to less ozone and a cooling stratosphere as energy escapes to space faster. That weakens the inversion at the tropopause to increase upward energy flow from the troposphere. The hydrological cycle gets faster with more water vapour dumped just below or at a slightly higher tropopause.
That sequence fits all the observations but is clearly heretical because it reverses the generally accepted sign of the effect of a more active sun on the stratospheric temperature and on ozone quantities.
Interesting times.
These temperatures, wholly natural in cause, will be added to the average, pumping up the global data and thus turning magically into AGW. Here is substantial proof from NOAA’s own mouth that average global temperatures are made from daily weather pattern variations and nothing else.
Daily temps are weather. Global averages are also…weather.
The other interesting thing about this summer’s event in Russia is that it’s nothing new. Can’t even blame the Soviets for creating the conditions. While there aren’t temperature readings available earlier than the mid-1800’s, there are written records that talk of unusually hot summers, peat bogs and forests burning for weeks on end. Russia Today listed a series of these events in 1298, 1364, 1431 and 1735. The 1800’s saw five such events (1831, 1839-1841, 1868, 1875 and 1885). Prior modern events included those in 1917, 1930 and 1972.
Stephen Wilde says:
August 20, 2010 at 8:28 am
An important point about those shifting jets and blocking situations. It seems that the stratosphere must cool when the sun is more active and warm when the sun is less active to achieve the observed outcome. So on balance I think more solar activity leads to faster ozone destruction leading to less ozone and a cooling stratosphere as energy escapes to space faster.
I am not sure Steve. Ozone creation from my limited knowledge is from solar EUV interacting in the ionosphere, ozone destruction only happens when high level troposphere temperatures are very low at the poles. Overall we are most likely in a UV low right now which some say may have implications on pressure cells that may influence jet streams etc.
I think low solar activity leaves us with a low UV reading overall.
In the article we read:
“Whereas this phenomena has been principally related to a natural extreme event, its impacts may very well forebode the impact that a projected warming of surface temperatures could have by the end of the 21st Century due to greenhouse gas increases”.
“It is clear that the random occurrence of a summertime block in the presence of the projected changes in future surface temperature would produce heat waves materially more severe than the 2010 event.”
Despite the encouraging header and the insightful explanation of the conditions that caused the heat wave, NOAA is still riding the AGW gravy train and continues to sell the scare.
Thus continuing to support the precautionary principle that will be used to shut the door on our carbon fueled economies.
R. Gates says:
August 20, 2010 at 8:05 am
…it may, or may not be the case that AGW could increase the frequency of these types of events. But it would be worthy of further investigation.
——————————————————————-
What AGW? There is no AGW. If you believe AGW is real, then prove it before smuggling it into the debate as a valid premise.
Crackpots.
Stephen W.;
What you describe is “negative feedback”, and is IMO the default assumption in any system that hasn’t gone off the rails in a significant span of time.
Lester Brown gave an interesting talk yesterday in Aspen about the heat wave in Russia and its impact on crops, and that as a result they will have to become a grain importer this year rather than an exporter as they lost 30% of their grain this year.
Piers corbyn believes the heatwave was brought to an end by the sun
http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews10No31.pdf
“On the morning of 14th Aug a TWO sunspot solar flare (C4 class) erupted hurling plasma and X rays for two hours causing a simultaneous major SID – Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance (X rays travel Sun-8 mins) and then the jet stream shifts and dramatic weather changes across the world as predicted.”
Unfortunately, my dear old Canadian Grope and Wail (Globe and Mail) chose to run a Reuters story without checking other sources – ie. the report by NOAA posted here.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/europe/russian-heat-wave-makes-mockery-of-climate-change-winner-talk-in-canada/article1679604/
My comments to them follow.
The article is pitiful – more speculative climate change paranoid talk tied to an event that is clearly the weather – albeit slightly unusual weather known as a “summertime” block as described by US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – which acknowledges global warming exists but uniequivocally states that the Russian Heat Wave is NOT a result of climate change.
“Despite this strong evidence for a warming planet, greenhouse gas forcing fails to explain the 2010 heat wave over western Russia.The natural process of atmospheric blocking, and the climate impacts induced by such blocking, are the principal cause for this heat wave. It is not known whether, or to what exent, greenhouse gas emissions may affect the frequency or intensity of blocking during summer. It is important to note that observations reveal no trend in a daily frequency of July blocking over the period since 1948, nor is there an appreciable trend in the absolute values of upper tropospheric summertime heights over western Russia for the period since 1900.”
(per http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/csi/moscow2010/)
To Mr Medvedev, check your weather history at home because this blocking, which has also contributed to the Pakistan flood issue, has taken place over the Eurasian continent many times before – specifically 1931 , 1955, 1981, 1988, and 2002.
Oh, and to Kevin Trenberth, who infamously said to his warmist colleagues in an email on October 12, 2009, “We can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.” ….The “travesty” continues because this particular heat wave doesn’t represent warming.
JLKrueger says:
August 20, 2010 at 9:16 am
“The other interesting thing about this summer’s event in Russia is that it’s nothing new.” … “…a series of these events in 1298, 1364, 1431 and 1735.”
Oh, please. Asia is only 130 years old. I know because NOAA says so and they know everything.
——————
Actually, the dates and events you mention are expanded upon here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/14/pielke-sr-on-heat-wave-in-russia/#more-23406
See:
oakwood says:
August 14, 2010 at 1:32 am
There must be a similar listing of cold-events. Maybe a Russian scholar can provide a reference.
If this Russian heat wave, that you can count in days, is the result of global warming,
What was the Russian heat wave in the 1930’s, that paralleled our dust bowl, that you can count in years (decade)?
This short spurt, only broke the 1930’s record by 0.2.
Stephen Wilde says:
August 20, 2010 at 8:28 am
An important point about those shifting jets and blocking situations. It seems that the stratosphere must cool when the sun is more active and warm when the sun is less active to achieve the observed outcome. So on balance I think more solar activity leads to faster ozone destruction leading to less ozone and a cooling stratosphere as energy escapes to space faster.
_________________________________
Geoff Sharp says:
August 20, 2010 at 9:26 am
I am not sure Steve. Ozone creation from my limited knowledge is from solar EUV interacting in the ionosphere, ozone destruction only happens when high level troposphere temperatures are very low at the poles. Overall we are most likely in a UV low right now which some say may have implications on pressure cells that may influence jet streams etc.
I think low solar activity leaves us with a low UV reading overall.
________________________________
You are correct Geoff,
tNASA
“We want to compare the sun’s brightness now to its brightness during previous minima and ask: is the sun getting brighter or dimmer?”
The answer seems to be dimmer. Measurements by a variety of spacecraft indicate a 12-year lessening of the sun’s “irradiance” by about 0.02% at visible wavelengths and 6% at EUV wavelengths.”
The atmosphere is also less “puffed up” during this last solar minimum.,“This is the biggest contraction of the thermosphere in at least 43 years,” says John Emmert of the Naval Research Lab, lead author of a paper announcing the finding in the June 19th issue of the Geophysical Research Letters (GRL). “It’s a Space Age record.” http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/15jul_thermosphere/
And
“In 2009, cosmic ray intensities have increased 19% beyond anything we’ve seen in the past 50 years,” says Richard Mewaldt of Caltech.” http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/29sep_cosmicrays/
But of course changes in the sun have nothing to do with climate. /sarc
Geoff Sharp says:
August 20, 2010 at 9:26 am
“I am not sure Steve. Ozone creation from my limited knowledge is from solar EUV interacting in the ionosphere, ozone destruction only happens when high level troposphere temperatures are very low at the poles. Overall we are most likely in a UV low right now which some say may have implications on pressure cells that may influence jet streams etc.”
Well Geoff I’m not certain yet either and I did suggest an alternative mechanism in one of my articles.
The trouble is that we clearly see stratospheric temperatures and ozone quantities falling when the sun is more active and now recovering with the sun less active. I am not satisfied with the CFC based reasoning now that it is all going into reverse again. After all no one has ever suggested that more CFCs can shift the jets . The change was correlated to the change in solar activity levels and I think that is significant.
The clincher to my mind is that one cannot possibly get stronger polar high pressure cells with a cooling stratosphere because one needs a stronger inversion at the tropopause for that effect not a weaker inversion. The stronger inversion directs more energy back downward whereas a weak inversion allows more energy upward. That’s a pretty basic rule.
A weaker inversion from a cooling stratosphere must inevitably lead to a weaker inversion, weaker polar high pressure cells and poleward shifts of the jets just as we saw in the late 20th Century.
So the pressure distribution observed in the troposphere both in the late 20th Century and now are the opposite of what one would expect from established ideas.
I see it and I’m trying to watch and explain it but the jury is still out.
Geoff, see here:
http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/ozone/additional/science-focus/about-ozone/ozone_cycle.shtml
“Stratospheric ozone is created and destroyed primarily by ultraviolet radiation”.
and this:
http://www.nature.com/news/2007/070924/full/449382a.html
” The result was a shock: at least 60% of ozone destruction at the poles seems to be due to an unknown mechanism, “
“Much of the intensity of the current heat wave, and also the pattern of surface temperature conditions across Eurasia during July 2010, can be recreated from the atmospheric blocking event itself. ”
This is akin to saying that the phenomenon caused itself.
I suggest that the sudden warming of the Antarctic stratosphere in July, which is unprecedented in the modern record, (See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/) is responsible for a global increase in ozone concentration in the lower stratosphere. This is always driven by phenomena at the winter pole and in particularly Antarctica where, for obvious reasons the vortex is most persistent and strongest.
Increased ozone in the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere results in rapid atmospheric warming, cloud loss, increased intensity of solar radiation at the surface and therefore surface warming. There was brief unseasonable warmth in early August in southern Australia and a rapid advance of sea surface temperature in the mid to high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. Here in SW Western Australia the warmth set almonds flowering and grape vines shooting a month early.
If the sea warms quickly it destabilizes the atmospheric circulation. The sea, free of a diurnal flux in temperature supports the creation of high pressure cells.
The warming of the upper atmosphere in response to increased ozone is not due to UV dynamics but is actually due to the ability of ozone to trap long wave radiation from the earth. The warmest parts of the stratosphere lie over cold seas that support near permanent high pressure cells in the atmosphere and therefore have no cloud to impede downward radiation.
I came across this interesting statement on the BOM website last night and it confirms my point nicely:
from http://www.bom.gov.au/inside/oeb/atmoswatch/aboutozone.shtml
“The initial monitoring of ozone was driven by curiosity about the circulation in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Because measurements of total ozone were observed to be related to the passage of weather systems, it was used for many years as an aid to weather forecasting. Now, of course, the focus is very much on the depletion of the ozone layer due to anthropogenic pollutants and the ensuing negative biological impacts.
Ozone is also an important issue in the Climate Change debate. Ozone is a greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone is a radiatively important constituent responsible for heating of the upper troposphere. Most crucial for climate simulations is the distribution of ozone near the tropopause, as the minimum temperatures here contrast most with the Earth’s surface and allows for the maximum forcing of the earth-troposphere system.
During the 1960s concerns were raised about the effect of atmospheric nuclear tests on the ozone layer but the first concrete indication that human activities could damage the ozone layer came in 1971 when Johnston pointed out that the large fleet of supersonic aircraft proposed by the US would feed considerable amounts of nitric oxide into or just below the ozone layer. Research had shown that oxides of nitrogen were very efficient destroyers of ozone.”
I would ask you to note the connection with ozone levels with the passage of the weather systems and the presence of ozone in the upper troposphere (particularly in high pressure cells of which ‘blocking highs’ are a particularly strong instance).
Note also the statement about nitric oxides and their ability to deplete ozone. The prime source of nitric oxides is a strong winter polar vortex.
The winter polar vortex collapses, allowing a stratospheric warming, when surface atmospheric pressure at the pole falls dramatically as it did in July 2010. See the phenomena animated at:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.shtml
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z200anim.shtml
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/hgt.aao.shtml
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/hgt.shtml
Why does surface atmospheric pressure fall in Antarctica and simultaneously rise in the mid latitudes of the summer hemisphere? I will leave that for you to work out for yourself but if you are interested in reviewing the modern record of the change in atmospheric pressure driving ENSO and global temperature I have a description in the latest post at: http://climatechange1.wordpress.com/
“” The result was a shock: at least 60% of ozone destruction at the poles seems to be due to an unknown mechanism, “
”
Michael Crichton territory looms. ( Maybe Stephen Baxter)
But seriously, they still have to pay that 10% CO2 tax on scientific research,
even as they probe mysteries beyond those that can be caused by Coca-Cola bubbles.
Being as this information, strange as it is, is not secret, how is it that I can still find people willing to argue that:
The sun does not control the climate
Solar irradiance ( proniunced with an air of authority) is constant
and
There are no unaccounted for effects on the Earth from the sun
and
Of course climate models are comprehensive and include all factors
My undereducated mind boggles.
If the heat wave over Russia caused by a blocking high is a black swan, what color of swan visits in January, and for whom does the swan toll?
Might as well look for the Blue Swan, and stock up on firewood.
Which brings me to a question for those of you with a better understanding of
these factors.
What effects CAN we expect from this atmospheric shrinkage and associated
Swannage in the NH when the season once again trends toward the chilly ?
TomRude says:
August 20, 2010 at 7:58 am
Show me how it is wrong instead of just making disparaging remarks.
Question about the DMI chart of temps above 80 north.
All summer long, they have been on among the margin of the coldest, almost ALWAYS below normal.
Now we see a spike.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Is this because the block has finally released and that bubble of heat that baked western Russia has now been knocked away to dissipate at the poles, affecting Arctic temperatures in a positive manner?
Any thoughts on this would be appreciated.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
erlhapp says
“I suggest that the sudden warming of the Antarctic stratosphere in July, which is unprecedented in the modern record, (See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/) is responsible for a global increase in ozone concentration in the lower stratosphere.”
==================================
I am always fascinated with sudden stratospheric warmings so you piqued my interest on this one.
I could not get your link to work and when I checked the vertical cross-section of the Antarctic polar vortex, and I see a small sudden warm up around Aug 1.
Not nearly as dramatic as ones I have seen in the Arctic, so I am asking, is this one truly the most “unprecedented” in the modern record for the Antarctic?
[PS I respect your opinion so I am just asking for verification here.]
Thanks.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
erlhapp says:
August 20, 2010 at 5:51 pm
Is there anything in the atmosphere that isn’t a greenhouise gas?
I wonder.
Julienne Stroeve says:
August 20, 2010 at 11:14 am
Lester Brown gave an interesting talk yesterday in Aspen about the heat wave in Russia and its impact on crops, and that as a result they will have to become a grain importer this year rather than an exporter as they lost 30% of their grain this year.
________________________________________
Russia has lots of grain in storage and so do other countries. Farmers are hoping for an increase in price from wheat futures but there is a plentiful supply.
_________________________________________
Jimash says:
August 20, 2010 at 6:40 pm
Might as well look for the Blue Swan, and stock up on firewood.
Which brings me to a question for those of you with a better understanding of
these factors.
What effects CAN we expect from this atmospheric shrinkage and associated
Swannage in the NH when the season once again trends toward the chilly ?
—————————————————————————————
I burned 7 cords of wood last winter, I usually burn 5. This year I plan to put up 8 cords as the aspen leaves are already turning and the temperature is slightly below normal … it hailed this evening and it is still sitting on the ground and I haven’t gotten my hay in … the birds have started migrating south already but that IS normal for this time of year. Winter is coming. Need to get my geothermal unit started up for the heating season and order some propane for backup. It usually snows at least once here in September. Darn that was one short Alberta summer. Horses and dogs are already getting winter hair growth.
Sorry I did not post the vertical cross-section of the austral polar vortex in my previous post. Here it is….from a normal CPC link:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/hgt.aao.shtml
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
savethesharks says:
August 20, 2010 at 8:57 pm
Re sudden stratospheric warmings:
“I am always fascinated with sudden stratospheric warmings so you piqued my interest on this one.
I could not get your link to work and when I checked the vertical cross-section of the Antarctic polar vortex, and I see a small sudden warm up around Aug 1.
Not nearly as dramatic as ones I have seen in the Arctic, so I am asking, is this one truly the most “unprecedented” in the modern record for the Antarctic?”
Sorry, Chris, checking I find that the link I had is superseded by http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/
In particular try T Mean, Annual SH 2010 which you will find at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_ALL_SH_2010.gif
It’s plain to see that the warming extended down to the lowest levels of the troposphere.
And then you must bring up the SH data for previous years back to 1979. Don’t look at the anomaly data. Just look at the ‘T Mean’ and you will see the contrast. This is a big event in the southern Hemisphere context produced by a dramatic collapse in surface pressure and consequently, a collapse in the vortex.
savethesharks says:
August 20, 2010 at 10:46 pm
Re monitoring Sudden stratospheric warmings and sudden increases in ozone.
Polar temperatures into the stratosphere can also be monitored here:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/
Ozone content at high latitudes and the change in the vortex can be monitored here:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/
Conventional climate science attributes SSW to heat flux and planetary waves. There is no account taken of changes in surface pressure and the dynamics of the vortex. The ideological blinkers determine that any change in the ‘ozone hole’ must be due to the activities of man. There are some things that can not, indeed, must not be seen.
Changing pressure differentials driving the trades must also be ‘invisible’.
Behold the emperor in all his finery!
Wayne
You say: “I burned 7 cords of wood last winter, I usually burn 5. This year I plan to put up 8 cords as the aspen leaves are already turning and the temperature is slightly below normal.”
Take your guide from the experience of this years southern winter. Could be you will need 9 cords. Should be lots of cold air out of the Arctic. The trend since 1990 is for the pressure differential between 80-90N and the equator to increase. See fig 5 in my latest paper at http://climatechange1.wordpress.com/
Pressure at 80-90N is directly related to the Arctic Oscillation index but you need to flip the index to see the relationship. Conventionally a falling AOI tells you that atmospheric pressure is increasing in the high northern latitudes.
It is the relative increase in atmospheric pressure over Antarctica that accounts for the polar front sweeping far north into Brazil this southern winter. A momentary failure in that pressure will produce the sudden stratospheric warming that peaked 3d-5th August 2010. It’s the contrast that is spectacular.
rbateman says:
August 20, 2010 at 9:11 pm
“Is there anything in the atmosphere that isn’t a greenhouise gas?”
There is none so spectacularly greenhouse in nature as ozone. If we observe it working we can see, as a matter of direct observation’ that downward transfer of energy is a nonsense. See http://climatechange1.wordpress.com/2008/11/08/earth-laboratory-tests-the-greenhouse-theory-once-a-year-every-year-and-finds-it-wanting-every-time/
savethesharks says:
August 20, 2010 at 8:45 pm
Question about the DMI chart of temps above 80 north.
All summer long, they have been on among the margin of the coldest, almost ALWAYS below normal.
Now we see a spike.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Is this because the block has finally released and that bubble of heat that baked western Russia has now been knocked away to dissipate at the poles, affecting Arctic temperatures in a positive manner?
Any thoughts on this would be appreciated.
My thoughts: The increase in temperature in the Arctic is a product of a fall in atmospheric pressure. The fall occurred at both poles simultaneously. The effect was more dramatic in the south than the north because the arctic vortex is at its weakest in midsummer. Nevertheless there is an effect.
If you line up the figures for the AO and the AOI one above the other you will see a symmetry. The force that shifts the atmosphere away from the poles frequently acts on both poles at the same time. This is most readily observed when the Arctic vortex is strongest.
The fall in pressure in July (north and south) can be seen in figure 5 in my latest post at http://climatechange1.wordpress.com/
And you wait until they get a similar blocking event in January. Minus 50oc anyone?
Oh, sorry, that would just be weather.
David Ball,
humour?
TomRude, that’s what I thought your response would be. Nada. It makes me laugh every time someone says how wrong or outdated my father is, yet they all seem to come back to the exact same conclusions that he has been saying for thirty years +. Slander and deride all you like, for in the end, good honest science shall prevail. Those who are rude would do well to remember that Karma still functions on the internet. Behave as you would face to face.
stevengoddard says:
August 19, 2010 at 10:16 pm
Hot weather is climate. El Nino is climate
______
? You are being sarcastic of course.
Silver Robot says:
August 20, 2010 at 9:58 am
R. Gates says:
August 20, 2010 at 8:05 am
…it may, or may not be the case that AGW could increase the frequency of these types of events. But it would be worthy of further investigation.
——————————————————————-
What AGW? There is no AGW. If you believe AGW is real, then prove it before smuggling it into the debate as a valid premise.
______________
Reply:
Thanks for snipping off the first part of my post which gives a direct quote from the article, and makes the point about the unknown potential connection between the frequency of these kinds of events and GHG’s. The article says:
“It is not known whether, or to what exent, greenhouse gas emissions may affect the frequency or intensity of blocking during summer.”
The suggestion that this would be an area worthy of further scientific study is valid one, you your ad hominem attack on me, which I deleted here, is put into its proper perspective.
The “Crackpot” can’t prove it so he claims “ad hominem” /sarc! ROTFLMAO!
David Ball, reading this NOAA report, or the New Scientist article on the work by Blackburn and the link you offered, I do not see much difference between the two: same Rossby waves, same Jet Stream responsible for blocking.
I wonder what winter will be in Moscow. Will it be extraordinary cold or mild? Are there any anomalies expected?