I swear, I had nothing to do with this. Speaking tonight in Canberra, details here. Weather records for Sydney here.
From the “weather is not climate department”:
Sydney recorded its coldest June morning today since 1949, with temperatures diving to 4.3 degrees just before 6:00am (AEST).
Cold snap set to stay By Amy Simmons
Experts say it is unusual to see such widespread cold weather in June. (User submitted photo: Rick Box)
//
People across south-east Australia are complaining about unusually chilly temperatures and experts say there will be no relief from the cold until Sunday at the earliest.
From Brisbane this morning, Miss7t7 wrote on Twitter “Still in bed, so dam cold.. What’s going on Brisbane !!!!”. While in Melbourne, lexandraKR tweeted “Waiting for frostbite to set in… Sooo cold in Melbourne! Too scared to get out of bed incase I get hypothermia”.
Others are embracing the weather and urging those who are complaining to toughen up.
“I am in love with this cold weather. Melbourne reminds me of Paris at the moment. How can that be a bad thing?” wrote hannahjtoy. “Is it seriuosly newsworthy that sydney temps are in the low single digits? seriuosly? it not cold! suck it up!” FilthiAssistant tweeted.
But ABC weather specialist Graham Creed says people’s complaints are justified.
“It’s definitely quite unusual to see such widespread cold weather in June, it would be more typical in July and August,” he said.
“So people are complaining about the cold for a good reason.”
Mr Creed says most areas across the south-east are experiencing temperatures well below average.
“Last weekend a cool change moved through and that introduced some significantly colder air across most of south-east Australia,” he said.
“Quickly in behind that we had a high pressure ridge move through, producing clear skies during both the day and the night, but it’s also helping to trap that cold air in.
“The clear skies mean we are losing what little daytime heating there is and overnight temperatures are dropping into the minuses through many of those states, producing widespread frosts.
“On top of that we’ve got quite a breeze in certain areas and the air is very dry so that’s producing very low wind chill, so not only is the sun not providing much warmth, you’ve also got the assistance of the wind making it feel colder than it actually is.”
He says Queensland is in for a particularly rough few days, as widespread rainfall will see the conditions change from cold and sunny to cold, cloudy and wet.
Yesterday, an icy blast through Adelaide brought enough rain to supply the city for a month, with a hail storm capping off the exceptionally wintry day.
Yesterday was also the coldest day in Melbourne in nearly two years, with the city not reaching its maximum temperature of 10.8 degrees Celsius until 7:55pm (AEST).
If the temperature in Melbourne fails to hit its forecast maximum today, it will be the first time in 14 years the city has recorded three consecutive days of temperatures below 12 degrees.
Last night Brisbane was coldest at 9:00pm (AEST), when the mercury dropped to below 8 degrees, but experts say it will be even cooler tonight.
Sydney recorded its coldest June morning today since 1949, with temperatures diving to 4.3 degrees just before 6:00am (AEST).
more at ABC Radio
We are on the green road to hell.
Want to “Save the planet”? No more toast for you, then.
Stop using toasters, islanders are told.
Residents of a Scottish island that claims to be the world’s greenest have been told to cut their power use because a shortage of rain is starving its hydro-electric generators. Renewable energy usually provides Eigg, in the Inner Hebrides, with 92% of its electricity, but it has not had any significant rain since May.
The 70 or so islanders have been warned to avoid using power-hungry appliances such as toasters in case demand for power makes their back-up diesel generators chug into life.
In January, the community won a £300,000 prize to spend on projects which reduce carbon emissions. (They can’t manage to say “carbon dioxide”)
You heard it here first. In the new “low carbon” economy you can only have toast if it has been raining.
I work outdoors at Balmoral Beach and start work at 6:00am – it was bloody freezing!
Please please give me a little bit of global warming:)
But it can’t be anything to do with the sun being quiet… nononononononono
Cold winters 2008-9 2009-10 Quiet sun – long minimum, cycle 24 flops.
Cold winters 1970’s low solar cycle
Cold winters 1900-1914 low solar cycles
Cold winters 1800-1820 very low solar cycles
Cold winters 1600’s very few sunspots seen for 50 years – Thames and Rhine freeze.
Here in Port Macquarie (31 degrees south on the east coast of NSW) I used a hose to wash the frost/ice off the car this morning. It didn’t work. So I scraped it off with my credit card and my daughter (7) was so excited to see the “snow”! We have reasonably regular frosts but this one was pretty heavy for us. I just hope my mango trees survive. Up in Glen Innes, in the great dividing range west of here, I understand it went down to -10.
It is pretty cold here in Perth WA as well – Anthony you may recall when you were here last Sunday we’d just experienced -0.6 C. Rain predicted tomorrow and temperature will be just above freezing again in parts of Perth. Wonder if there will be flurries of snow on the Darling Range?
John Gorter
What ‘record cold’? Nothing here has broken an all-time record yet.You do recall that Melbourne experienced its longest ever duration of consecutive daily maxima of 20C or more-123 days-over the last summer and autumn. Previous record was 78 days in 2007/8. April 2009 to April 2010 in Victoria and Tasmania was their warmest 12 months for that period since records began.
What about the northern African/Middle eastern heatwave,eh? Pheew…
Brrrr! Living in a ninety year old house in Sydney, near the sea, (over optimistically) designed for a warm climate – with added winter ocean warmth -but with insufficient heating (nice in summer thankyou), but stll warmer than those parts further inland, one lies in bed at midnight, scrunched up against the cold – watching the tennis at Wimbledon – in 30 degreeC heat. Coldwave vs heatwave!
Kyneton (500m Elevation) in Central Victoria is usually cold in winter but Monday was exceptionally cold starting out at -4.5 and with a max of 7.1, yesterday was even colder with a max of 5.1 brrr with strong northerly winds most unusual as the cold winds generally come from the south. I say thank God for global warming otherwise it would be really cold!
I’m not buying it.
They’re saying the clear skies overnight are the cause for losing daytime heating. But… we all know that clouds, being merely water, can’t possibly hold in heat. Not only that, but we also all know that CO2 is a much more effective blanket, holding in heat.
So, ignore the thermometer (climatologists do, and what’s good for them is good for me) and realize that this is actually a sign of a nearing tipping point of hyper-global heating.
Nick: “What ‘record cold’? Nothing here has broken an all-time record yet.You do recall that Melbourne experienced its longest ever duration of consecutive daily maxima of 20C or more-123 days-over the last summer and autumn. Previous record was 78 days in 2007/8. April 2009 to April 2010 in Victoria and Tasmania was their warmest 12 months for that period since records began.
What about the northern African/Middle eastern heatwave,eh? Pheew”
You’re not gettin this are you Nick? Well that’s not surprising because the words climate change have been confated with global warming. Climate is always changing, up and down, more precipitation, less precipitation, warming cooling etc. What the warmists have been doing is pointing to every weather event as signs of global warming, Hurricane Katrina, the European 2005 heatwave etc. Then it went cold, and suddenly weather ceased to be an omen of global warming it became, well, weather not climate. They’re just rubbing it in, you know highlighting that if there weren’t these record lows the heatwave in the Middle East would have been touted as the result of GHG emissions, it’s a bit difficult to do that if you have simultaneous record lows. Hope this has clarified it for you.
Bulletin from Melbourne:
Yes, it is cold, but the good part is that it is also raining. Sixteen wet days in here in June.
Folks, this is just like the ‘real’ winters I remember from my childhood during the 1930’s and through early adulthood in the 1950’s.
We might have to get used to it again after the drier and milder conditions that have prevailed since the 1997/8 El Nino. This could be the start of the colder period that many, like tallbloke, are predicting might result from a persistently quieter Sun.
To those in Australia feel the cold from one who lives in Switzerland.
Try the Swiss “cure” for cold weather, – Eat melted Cheese! Fondue, Raclette, Spätzli (Fried pasta with melted cheese) etc. It’s the one culinary contribution the Swiss made to the world. Not very imaginative, but it sure keeps the cold out, even at -15C daytime temp.
I haven’t checked the records, but it seems a colder June here in Adelaide than it has been for many years as well.. I also note over at Chiefio’s, the coffee in Brazil is iced.
Weather isn’t climate, but climate is weather 🙂
I fail to comprehend why, when the “models” and Joe Bastardi appear to agree that we’re in for a prolonged major cooling, there are no screaming headlines in the mainstream media to that effect. The powers that be and their spokesmen are still blithely prattling on about low carbon this and that, “saving” the planet for our grandchildren, etc., etc,. whilst all the time Mr. Planet carries on as he’s always done in his cyclical way, regardless of all these stupid human efforts to tame him.
All the signs and portents for cold are there, but they’re being ignored, when the world at large SHOULD be being warned and given assistance to prepare. Instead of which, the truth is being kept very quiet. What happens over the next few years, and it gets progressively cooler, and governments are totally unprepared, spurning proper generation capacity in favour of useless wind and solar farms?
Surely governments are not that stupid to not believe what is so evidently happening?
I’m a mere layman, and I can see the writing on the wall, why can’t they?
Or is it it one gigantic conspiracy after all? And if so, what happens when everything we suspect will occur, comes to pass? What will these charlatans have achieved, other than total world poverty? And will they be permitted to get away with it?
Why are they preparing for one unlikely eventuality, when it’s so obvious that the opposite scenario is just around the corner.
It sends shivers down my spine. Is this the level of madnes that those governing us have descended to? It’s not as though they’re all going to make a mint out of carbon trading and promoting windmills, and escape somewhere safe whilst we all suffer – they, too, will still have to exist somewhere, and hopefully will suffer the same predicament eventually.
I’m just gobsmacked at some of the rubbish spouted by Lord this, or Lord that on the TV and radio, about how we all need to cut carbon emissions, and those interviewing them never bother to question the whole idea, they just blandly accept everything they’re told.
Have we become some sort of dangerous, subversive intelligentsia under-class, now labelled “deniers”? If so, it speaks volumes about those who “believe”. I was always under the impression that a civilised world was basically a more sensible one, but it would appear that the reverse is true.
It’ll soon be far too late for “told you so’s”
Its so cold because its getting warmer…surely? Simples
My bike computer told me is was 3 degrees here in Sydney just before 7am. I believed it – halfway into work, I thought my ears were going to snap off.
Nick: “What ‘record cold’? Nothing here has broken an all-time record yet.You do recall that Melbourne experienced its longest ever duration of consecutive daily maxima of 20C or more-123 days-over the last summer and autumn. Previous record was 78 days in 2007/8. April 2009 to April 2010 in Victoria and Tasmania was their warmest 12 months for that period since records began.
Nick, Nick, Nick, have you heard about UHI effect. Check out the location of Melbourne’s weather station in Victoria Street. Melbourne has developed a little since it was established and this would account for the run of above 20 degree days last summer. It certainly wasn’t the case in the outer suburbs!
tallbloke said:
“Cold winters 1970′s low solar cycle.”
Well yes, cycle 20 was lower than cycles 19 and 21, 22 and 23 but the trouble is that it was still pretty active in historical terms. Also cycle 19 was the highest but still the globe was cooling.
That’s pretty much why long ago I decided one really needed to introduce another factor and I chose the oceanic oscillations because they were negative during high cycles 19 and 20 but positive for cycles 21, 22 and 23 which served to fit the observations very nicely.
So it’s the solar / oceanic interplay that gives the best fit and then there’s those other pesky ‘coincidences’ of a cooling stratosphere and falling ozone levels and positive polar oscillations with more poleward jets all happening at the same time as the more active sun and all going into reverse from the late 90s as the solar activity levels dropped after the peak of cycle 23.
It’s no longer a matter of whether solar influences are significant but how such small changes in raw power output from the sun can produce so many simultaneous effects on our energy budget and atmospheric chemistry with substantial climate consequences despite the much more powerful oceanic effects.
That’s what we need to resolve.
Loving the cold, but as a Canberran, it comes with the territory. A long string of sub-zero nights, very frosty mornings and dry conditions. Brilliant! To anyone who can’t take it, HTFU!
Not at the talk this evening because, well, 6.30pm is a very un-family friendly time to run stuff. :/
Fingers of cold reach westwards across the Pacific and northwards from Antarctica relentlessly marching on towards an Australia already suffering at the hands of the England Cricket Team.
The Atlantic cools in sympathy and we await the first hurricane of the forecast active season.
The one bright spot for trolls, who are akin to lizards in their love of warmth, is the warm anomaly off Greenland, Where Gaia, having moved El Nino heat northwards in a mocking display of humour, keeps their hopes and witterings alive in a last attack on the sea ice summer minimum, before she punishes us all for having the temerity to suppose that we might forecast and control the complexities of climate.
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
Here in Newman, Pilbara region of Western Australia, it is………cold, but this is normal for this time of the year in a desert environment.
Usually a snap cold event has previously been associated with Al Gore, but as he has been somewhat quiet these weeks, might he be secretly hiding in Oz?
I have a couple of questions, and I’m hoping the more scientifically-literate of you can spare a moment to help:
1. Can anyone point me to a graphical synopsis of all the various model “predictions” that lie behind the “consensus” on CAGW, plotting also the instrumental record, for comparison? It would be quite interesting to start the series early enough to include the “global cooling” predictions.
2. One of the difficulties faced by proponents of CAGW theory is surely in dealing with the “weather isn’t climate” issue. As I understand it CAGW postulates a “tipping point” whereat the pace of climate change would accelerate at such a pace that “climate” would indeed begin to vary on a timescale similar to “weather”. Sceptics seem to be at no such disadvantage, and may fairly point to the failure of the climate to warm over a short timescale as disconfirmation of CAGW, while equally fairly dismissing hot weather as evidence of a warming climate. Have I got this right? If not, why not?
The “Al Gore Effect” must be gaining strength. I understand he’s in California.
I swear, I had nothing to do with this. Speaking tonight in Canberra, details here. Weather records for Sydney here.
Dont worry Anthony, your power is to control sunspot activity by use of negative feedback, Al Gore is the one that brings in cold snap’s (unless there is a massage therapist nearby, alegedly 🙂 ). So unless you invited Al down for a talk, the cold cannot be your fault.
It is to be expected around the solstices that polar and high lattitude temperatures will be going the opposite directions at each pole. At the equinoxes, they move in unison.
I was talking with Piers about this happening recently, with the heat waves we have been getting in the N.Hemisphere, I was anticipating much cooler weather in the South of Australia, but not the North;
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=latest&step=0&map=minanom&period=week&area=nat
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=latest&step=0&map=maxanom&period=week&area=nat
My brother lives in Australia and he tells me the greens are blaming the cold on global warming!
Funny how quiet reporting is on colder temperatures, flooding and other parts of what is happening in other areas of the world. Unless it is sensationalism on CO2 warming the planet or effecting all manner of things.
Big push on carbon taxes and carbon credit schemes, green this and green that.
All this attention has taken away the research into what should be important and corrupted our knowledge base for generations. Secure professors teaching garbage science is the biggest mistake our society is pushing on our young and generating new politicians and scientists with closed minds to any other causes or science.
Like minded people are in the peer-review control and will only allow further garbage science to be published to protect the system that has been created.
I love your “Swiss Cure” Neil apart from tha fat and cholestoral, but then that’s supposed to be bad for us as well. Can we ever win!
Southern Ontario Canada, we were to have a hot dry summer due to El Nino, instead it’s cold and wet. We have nothing to fear from a little warming and everything to fear from a little cooling like the Maunder Min.
I love it, I work outside in South East Queensland and to me this is heaven. We have our hot humid Summers here that don’t seem to want to end so It’s nice to have a cold spell to punctuate our winter. I’m not sure who’s to blame but our climate is very old and Mr Watts just got here.
Bluddy freezing up here in Tropical Nth Qld too!….. 28C durin’ th’ day and a freezing 16C at night…. If it keeps this up I’ll probably have to put a shirt on….. 😉
From the beginning of June towards the middle of June we had one of the coldest spells in 15 years here in South Africa. There was even snow on Table Mountain in Cape Town. The snow on the other mountains was unusually lower than the normal snow line. Pipes in people’s homes here in Johannesburg and Pretoria froze up as well during the night. That usually does not happen until late in July. So now you know what I am going to do: I have to take more precautionary measures against the cold! I think it will get colder still.
Sydney recorded its coldest June morning today since 1949, with temperatures diving to 4.3 degrees just before 6:00am (AEST).
Eh Anthony you’re not big Al in disguise are you?
As they live so close to the ocean in Sydney I never thought I would have the opportunity to show my grandchildren frost icicles on their front lawn.
Clear nights? Temperatures dropping? Where’s this greenhouse effect?
Anthony
It’s been cold here in central Victoria, on Monday 28 June we had ice on our bird bath and stock water until midday. I heard also that the lake at the Castlemaine Botanical Gardens was frozen over. We should also be mindful that these Melbourne and Sydney’s lows come despite the impact of UHI. But as you state in your caveat “weather is not climate”.
Thanks to you and David Archibald for your interesting presentations at Ballarat on 26 June. This note is a follow-up to my comments then about the University of Melbourne (UOM) UHI study. I must express my embarrassment at the insulting tirade from the warmist zealot in the audience, so ably handled with dignity by both of you.
A comment by Geoff Sherrington June 24, 2010 at 5:24 am to Willis Eschenbach’s post “Before One Has Data” dated 24 June, 2010 includes a link to a study of the influence of UHI on temperatures in Melbourne, Australia here. This study (a precis) includes the usual disclaimers reaffirming the climate change message, but it also includes some interesting information about over night minimum temperatures across urban Melbourne:
Using a dataset complied from twice daily observations from 1985 to 1994 from weather stations maintained by the Victorian Environmental Protection Authority and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, results indicate that just prior to sunrise the CBD and IS are on average 4.0 deg C warmer during the summer months and 3.2 deg C warmer during the winter months. Interestingly over the 10 year period the summer months indicated that the CBD was the warmest area, whilst during the winter months the industrial area of Dandenong was 0.3 deg C warmer than the CBD.
These values for the UHI represent its average intensity during all of the weather events between 1985 and 1994. The values have been adjusted to a reference level to account for the effects of topography. The study has also found that the UHI is most pronounced when the wind speed in the CBD and at the airport is less than 3 m/s. On some occasions when there is little or no cloud and wind speeds below 1.5 m/s the heat island may be as high as 10 deg C around midnight. During very windy evenings the heat normally retained by the urban area is dispersed more easily which results in a smaller difference in temperature between the CBD and the outer suburbs.
The final paragraph explains that
The plot above shows the 1985-94 Summer Mean Minimum Potential Temperature contours for Melbourne. This plot shows a UHI of 1.81 deg C, which is determined by subtracting the average value of Melbourne and Laverton airports from the average value of the three inner city sites of Melbourne, Paisley and Alphington. The peak in the contours is located over Melbourne’s CBD. The key shows a UHI of 2.0 deg C, with a contour interval of 0.1 deg C.
The sites selected to establish a rural comparative temperature reference, Laverton Airport (presumably Laverton RAAF, location -37.8565, 144.7566) and Melbourne Airport (location -37.6655, 144.8321), appear somewhat compromised in their suitability for the purpose. As pointed out in the comments to the above mentioned WUWT post, Laverton RAAF is within Melbourne’s urban fringe and is likely to have been UHI corrupted even 16 years ago when temperature data for this study was recorded. Melbourne Airport is the city’s main international and domestic airport carrying very heavy traffic; the weather station is located approximately 100 metres from a main taxiway where temperature data would almost certainly have been corrupted by the effects of jet exhausts. However, it should be acknowledged that for such a study utilising static temperature recording points clearly it is difficult to obtain suitable rural reference temperature data due to the conflicting needs of minimising corruption due to UHI, and yet remaining close enough to be relevant to the urban area under study. But the study does perhaps indicate that while UOM/BOM and their ilk attempt to play down the significance of UHI, in reality they are the real “deniers” being well aware of just how much it has distorted the ground based planetary temperature record.
“RexAlan says:
June 30, 2010 at 4:23 am
I love your “Swiss Cure” Neil apart from tha fat and cholestoral, but then that’s supposed to be bad for us as well. Can we ever win!”
The fat insulates and burns off over the winter, they clear the cholesterol with quantities of Scnapps ( of various flavours) or so they tell me.
O/T.
What about Up Over?
What’s a “bergs”?
“Sea ice will continue to be too much of a complicating factor for some time to come, Lasserre said. Freeze-up and break-up is unpredictable. Even small bergs — called growlers — can slow down a cargo ship, ice-strengthened or not.”
>>> “In data that has since been circulated by organizations from the Arctic Council to NATO, he found the answer is: not much.”
…-
“Little interest in Arctic shipping
Survey: Most firms wouldn’t use route
By BOB WEBER The Canadian Press
Wed. Jun 30 – 4:54 AM
A recent survey is pouring cold water on the prospect of international shipping traffic steaming through Canada’s Northwest Passage despite visions that melting sea ice and longer periods of open water will turn the fabled waterway into a busy cargo route.
“These companies are really, really not interested in Arctic routes,” said Frederic Lasserre of Quebec’s Laval University. “It’s never going to be a Panama Canal.”
When Arctic sea ice dropped to record low levels in 2007, observers began to suggest that the Northwest Passage could offer a money-saving alternative to southern routes. The passage, many pointed out, could trim nearly 10,000 kilometres off common trips such as London-Yokohama or Rotterdam-Singapore.
Foreign policy experts in Canada and the United States were predicting commercial shipping was a matter of when, not if.
So Lasserre decided to ask the ones who send out the ships what they thought of the passage. In data that has since been circulated by organizations from the Arctic Council to NATO, he found the answer is: not much.
Lasserre contacted 125 shipping firms from Asia, Europe and North America and got responses from 34 companies representing 62 per cent of the market in 2008. Only 11 of them expressed any interest at all in shipping through the Northwest Passage.
Most of the interested firms were in North America. And most of those were already present in the North through efforts such as the annual sea lift of bulk supplies to northern communities.
Lasserre got similar results from a second, more extensive survey last summer. That survey suggested that resistance to the passage was strongest among companies focused on container shipping — the largest part of the market, but one that relies on dependable, accurate delivery times.
Only six out of 46 container shippers would even consider an Arctic route, the results suggested.
Sea ice will continue to be too much of a complicating factor for some time to come, Lasserre said. Freeze-up and break-up is unpredictable. Even small bergs — called growlers — can slow down a cargo ship, ice-strengthened or not.
“What the companies are selling is not merely transportation, it’s also schedules,” Lasserre said.”
http://thechronicleherald.ca/Canada/1189772.html
NASA’s Earth Observatory page (whih has lots of different satellit measurements available) is showing there has been a substantial cool-down on Land during June.
This link will give you May’s temperature anomaly, but you can check off 8-day anomaly (June 18-25) or 1-day anomaly (1-day doesn’t give full coverage of the Earth so is not as useful) but there are also spreadsheets of the spatial anomalies available and the numbers are down a surprising amount as June has rolled-out. I’m not sure how accurate it is but southern Oz, is showing up cool: 3 or 4 or up to 7C below normal.
http://neo.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/Search.html?group=67
Always remember, and never forget:
Every temperature anomaly that is ever-s0-slightly above average is proof of global warming;
Whilst every weather event that is a record-setting, below normal temperature is normal fluctuation and has nothing whatsoever to do with climate.
Stephen Wilde says:
June 30, 2010 at 2:28 am (Edit)
It’s no longer a matter of whether solar influences are significant but how such small changes in raw power output from the sun can produce so many simultaneous effects on our energy budget and atmospheric chemistry with substantial climate consequences despite the much more powerful oceanic effects.
That’s what we need to resolve.
Its the clouds Stephen. Primarily anyway. If Svensmark is right, it’s the effect of increased GCR’s at times of lower solar activity. Shaviv’s work on using the oceans as a calorimeter is the bridge here.
OMG, all the cold water on the planet is migrating towards the USA!
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
Any sighting of Al Gore?
Though someone corrected “wrong” satellites recording TSI back in 1989, actual temperatures did not change! (Oh, quite astonishing, nature doesn´t want to follow our intelligent models, made by US, quasi post normal bedwetter Semi-Gods!).
We can see all world records here:
http://www.mherrera.org/temp.htm
Henry@Stephen and Tallbloke
According to my books (which go back 40+ years) there has been no difference in the energy output from the sun as received on earth. I think the secret is in the effect of the sun on the clouds but not necessarily exclusively as Svensmark has put it. Who is – and where is Shaviv’s work? My theory is that the major cloudbanks (jets) who may carry (very) small amounts of iron in them may be influenced by magnetism to move either more towards the poles or more towards the equator – depending on what happens on the sun and how its magnetic field affects that of earth’s. Obviously, if they move more towards the equator, a larger amount of square area earth does not receive the full sunshine, hence the global cooling.
It is bloody freezing here, mate. Right now my electric heater is on full blast. To supplement it, I’ve turned on the oven with the door open. I keep thinking about that cartoon from the last Northern winter:
“-What do we want?
Global warming!
-When do we want it?
Now!”
Hide the decline. Joe Romm is scouring the lesser 48 and finding a record high temp or two. They were dead silent during the winter when thousands of cattle froze to death in Mongolia.
@Henry Pool says:
“According to my books (which go back 40+ years) there has been no difference in the energy output from the sun as received on earth.”
Have you read this book? it only goes back a few years, but there is a great correlation between higher Solar wind velocity and warmer months. See how low the speed was during the last 2 winters, with big gaps in the appearance of coronal holes last winter, and a clear drop in the total number of holes for the last year or more. Conversely, look at some of the high values before 2008, bang on the really hot months.
I think it should be a best seller!
Henry Pool says:
June 30, 2010 at 6:19 am
Link; http://www.solen.info/solar/coronal_holes.html
Good grief. These Ozzies are whining like a bunch of Kiwis!
44 (F) overnight here in Western Pennsylvania, in the Hemisphere where it’s supposed to be, you know, summer right now. Celebrated by liberating some carbon this morning, I did.
tallbloke,
We’re agreed it’s the clouds primarily but then the issue is as to whether it is cosmic rays affecting quantities affecting albedo as per Svensmark or whether it is the solar variability influencing the latitudinal positioning of the clouds affecting albedo as per me. Possibly a combination.
Not convinced by Henry Pool’s suggestion involving an iron content in the clouds responding to solar magnetic changes. We need a mechanism that also covers changing temperature trends in the stratosphere and ideally but not necessarily changes in ozone quantities.
The best guess I can come up with at the moment is variability in the upward energy flux from the stratosphere responding to solar surface and hence solar wind variability but I’m open to plausible alternatives. Changes in the upward energy flux would affect the intensity of the temperature inversion at the tropopause to change the size position and intensity of the polar high pressure cells.
59F last night here in the little old South (Arkansas). Stood out on the deck and cooled off. It was cooler OUTSIDE than it was on my modernized, air conditioned home. I’m so thankful the climate isn’t affecting the weather, otherwise I’d be (cue the Wicked Witch of the East) MELTING! MELTING! I’M MELTING! OH, WHAT A WORLD! WHAT A WORLD!
Honestly, I’m sick of correcting people. I’m a native here and people are moving to Arkansas from all over. They start to freak when Summer temps get into the 90’s. I have to pat them on the shoulder and assure them it’s all right. 90 degrees in the “UP” might indeed be worrisome, but down here everything gonna be all right. Forecast high today? 87F. Tonight? 61F. Tomorrow night? 60F. What a world.
Record temperatures Australia 2010:
AUSTRALIA………..C°……F°
Canberra Airport -10 42.2
Brisbane Airport -0.1 40.2
Brisbane City 2.3 43.2
Darwin Airport 10.4 38.9* * 40.4C also recorded in the Post Office Station in October 1892
Adelaide City -0.4 46.1
Adelaide Airport -2.6 44
Sydney Airport -0.1 45.2
Sydney Observatory 2.1 45.3
Perth Airport -1.3 46.7
Perth City -0.7 46.2
Albany City 0.1 44.8
Esperance City -0.6 46.9
Carnarvon 2.4 47.8
Broome 3.3 44.8
Alice Springs Airp.-7.5 45.2* * 47.5C also recorded in the Post Office Station in December 1891
Cairns Airport 6.2* 40.5* * extremes of 6.1C and 43.2C were recorded in the old city station
Melbourne City -2.8 46.4* * 46.8C also recorded in the Airport Station
Hobart City -2.8* 40.8 * -3.9C also recorded in the Airport Station in June 1972
Birdsville -1.7 49.5
Mardie 2.9 50.5
Oodnadatta -2.6 50.7
Charlotte Pass -23 33.5
Norfolk Island AP 6.2 28.4
Kingston (Norfolk) 31.7* * dubious, likely taken with not proper instruments
Cocos Island AP 18.3* 32.8 * an old and unofficial temperature of 17.8C also recorded
Willis Island 16.4 35.2
Christmas Isl. AP 16.2 31.8
Rocky Point (Christmas I.)33.2
Lord Howe Island 5.9 31.3
Heard Island -10.6 21.6
Macquarie Island -9.4 14.4
http://www.mherrera.org/temp.htm
Ulric Lyons says:
June 30, 2010 at 5:53 am
OMG, all the cold water on the planet is migrating towards the USA!
Come on! That’s racial profiling!
Welcome to the Landscheidt Minimum, expect more to follow for the next 20 years. David Archibald is also of the opinion recently in Melbourne that barycentric forces will see us enter a Dalton like minimum.
The Australian Temperature Record- Part 6: Victoria
Just published by Ken Stewart at:
http://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/2010/06/29/the-australian-temperature-record-part-6-victoria/
Some interesting adjustments!
And 500 penguins freeze to death in Africa!
“How many moah must die, mistah speakah!” (My tribute to the late Robert “Exalted Cyclops and Kleagle of the KKK” Byrd).
Since CO2 drives the warming [sarc], we must burn as much coal, oil, gas, and wood right now to boost the level in the atmosphere. Right now! We have only three more months to act until the glacial tipping point is reached. Burn, baby, burn!
tallbloke says:
June 30, 2010 at 5:48 am
If there is a time lag from the time of variation of Sun’s energy output/cloud cover, and the current minimum started in june 2007, are we already in a temperatures’ minimum?
Well, I can tell you where the heat isn’t… California. Although we did just experience two 100 + degree days here in the San Joaquin Valley, this spring and summer have been the mildest I’ve seen since I moved here in 1978.
I’m in Katoomba, NSW, Australia and it’s normally a coolish spot so I’m not going add to the whining about this little cold snap (-3 Celsius at the low before allowing for the 40 km/h winds).
Anyway it’s interesting to see how many other Australians read (and post to) WUWT.
Ref – Expat in France says:
June 30, 2010 at 1:54 am
“I fail to comprehend why, …The powers that be…are still blithely prattling on about low carbon this and that… All the signs and portents for cold are there, but they’re being ignored… Surely governments are not that stupid to not believe what is so evidently happening? I’m a mere layman, and I can see the writing on the wall, why can’t they? Or is it it one gigantic conspiracy after all? And if so, what happens when everything we suspect will occur, comes to pass? What will these charlatans have achieved, other than total world poverty? And will they be permitted to get away with it? Why are they preparing for one unlikely eventuality, when it’s so obvious that the opposite scenario is just around the corner. It sends shivers down my spine. Is this the level of madnes that those governing us have descended to?… Have we become some sort of dangerous, subversive intelligentsia under-class, now labelled “deniers”? If so, it speaks volumes about those who “believe”. I was always under the impression that a civilised world was basically a more sensible one, but it would appear that the reverse is true. It’ll soon be far too late for “told you so’s””
_________________________
You’re NOT alone.
One comment, regarding your question: “Is this the level of madnes that those governing us have descended to?”
I prefer to think of the “those” as our representatives, and I don’t think of them as governing us, merely representing us. We govern us, they represent us. They are no better, worse, smarter, wiser, than we are. When we ask ourselves, “what the @#$#@ do those $#$%%$ idiots think they’re doing?” then we’re really saying “what the @#$#@ do we $#$%%$ idiots think we’re doing?” We elected them. They represent us. We pay the piper. We’re the ones at fault for all the confusion and insanity we see around us. Nothing’s free, and no one else is at fault.
Maybe you will Roo the day that you went there. Throw a little coal on the barbie.
Got down to 38 here in the far corner of NE Oregon. It’s 8:00 AM and the temp has gone up to 48. At these nighttime temps, there are more than a few garden veggie plants that are stalled out. Toms come to mind.
On the other hand, BUMPER crop of first cutting hay but VERY late for that first cutting. Problem is that we are getting thunder clouds and showers nearly every day so drying that hay is a bit of a problem.
Come on now!
This is Climate Change in action. Just what the CAGW’ers has warned us about
More CO2 gives Climate Change! Boltzmanns law says it must be so.
And it cannot be explained any other way, so it must be man-made.
So there!
Call the Prophet to inmediately adjust those evidently wrong temperatures!
In my opinion, trade winds seem to have a greater influence on SST, which in turn affects jet stream and pressure gradients. Mixed (cooler) or non-mixed (warmer) various ocean currents then have a delayed affect as these SST temps work their way to parts North and South of their equatorial birth. These lagged drivers of temperatures in general affect the temperature gradients that influence trade winds. Is this cyclic, self-perpetuating scenario capable of causing short and long term temperature trends? In my opinion, yes.
That these oceanic cycles have natural internal oscillations that run the gamut from cool, to warm, to neutral is a reasonable thought.
That these phases run the gamut from a season, to years, to decades, to multiple decades is a reasonable thought.
That these phases are unique to particular oceanic oscillations, and therefore potentially in phase, out of phase, and somewhere in-between with other oceanic oscillations, is a reasonable thought.
That these oscillations create waxing and waning energy change (thus creating the energy imbalance needed for continuation of these cycles) is a reasonable thought.
That flora and fauna (including humans) have some influence (but relatively small in comparison to trade winds, oceans, and temperature gradients) on these cycles is a reasonable thought.
That these phases and oscillations correlate amazingly close with temperature, is not only a reasonable thought but a demonstrable one.
Snow in Aussieland, good summary.
Already there this year!
http://users.tpg.com.au/users/mpaine/snow.html#year_month
After a week of very warm and humid air (largely as usual) from the Ohio/New York state areas, we got our (also very usual) blast of COLD northern Canadian air. Last night it was down to 15C with a strong wind and it was COLD. The yo-yo effect will push the temp’s up to at least 30C by weekend with a ridge of high pressure now with us. (This is for Toronto area). By the way that last gasp of hot humid weather dumped 50 mm of rain on our area, causing a lot of flooded basements….
Michael in Sydney says:
June 30, 2010 at 12:17 am
I work outdoors at Balmoral Beach and start work at 6:00am – it was bloody freezing!
Please please give me a little bit of global warming:)
VILLABOLO SAYS:
Here it comes. Enjoy.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100615_globalstats.html
TomFP
In answer to the first of your two questions at 1.41am I can do no better than repeat a post I made on another thread. To familiarise yourself where the graphics demonstrating where AGW comes from, I suggest you read some of the articles referenced in my web site climatereason.com, particularly Hansen’s 1987 paper where he brought together all the graphs he could find in order to commence his Giss calculations from 1880. Unfortunately he didn’t go back far enough and Giss merely seemed to plug into the end of a 350 year long gently warming trend-not at the start of it.
***
This from IPCC FAQ 6.2 Page114 of TAR4.
‘All published reconstructions find that temperatures were warm during medieval times, cooled to low values in the 16th 17th 18th 19th centuries, then warmed rapidly after that.’
The Met office assert;
“Before the twentieth century, when man-made greenhouse gas emissions really took off, there was an underlying stability to global climate. The temperature varied from year to year, or decade to decade, but stayed within a certain range and averaged out to an approximately steady level.”
This statement is somewhat surprising as the Met office are the custodians of the longest dataset in the World -Central England temperatures- dating from 1659 , which is one of the most examined and researched temperature records in the world.
This actual instrumental record- as opposed to more imaginative proxies involving lumps of wood and holes in the ground- do not seem to agree with either the Met office, the IPCC nor Dr Mann’s bold assertions, as the record clearly shows wild fluctuations and a certain amount of cyclical behaviour.
This is CET to 1659 with global emissions of CO2 http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c0120a7c87805970b-pi
This is the annual mean CET (Central England Temperature) from 1659 as a straightforward graph.
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/jdrake/Questioning_Climate/_sgg/m2_1.htm
This the same record by month;
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/jdrake/Questioning_Climate/_sgg/m2m1_1.htm
As can be seen, throughout the record the temperatures have been warming-centuries before the input of Co2 by man. The period around 1700-1730 shows a particularly notable upturn in temperatures.
The instrumental record showing this notable variabilty is backed up by high quality contemporary observational records. Anyone browsing the diary of Samuel Pepys for January 1660/61-the year the Royal Society was established- would read;
“It is strange what weather we have had all this winter; no cold at all; but the ways are dusty, and the flyes fly up and down, and the rose-bushes are full of leaves, such a time of the year as was never known in this world before here.”
This mild dry winter was followed the following year by a similarly mild but very wet winter. However there were very sharp and extended periods of frost during three of the next five winters. It is said that skating was introduced into England during the winter of 1662/63 and that King Charles II watched this new activity on the frozen Thames.
Here are some additional linear regressions for some of the oldest data sets in the world-all show the same slight warming trend over centuries and climate variability.
http://i47.tinypic.com/2zgt4ly.jpg
http://i45.tinypic.com/125rs3m.jpg
CET is backed up by various other records which show the latter stages of the early 18th Century warming, such as this one from Uppsala.
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/10/09/how-long-is-a-long-temperature-history/
We are fortunate with this particular record- from our friend Arrhenius’s home town- to have the botanical garden records as well. These take us back to around 1695. Around 1710 the custodians start to plant outside some quite exotic plants-together with mulberries.
So the temperature rise can be traced back to at least 1690, and if we look further back, before the English Civil War, we know that the coldest part of this second phase of the LIA occurred in the early part of the 17th Century, so we can actually trace that rise from around 1601, which some say was the coldest year in our history.
It would appear that the Giss records -which start at in 1880- merely ‘plug’ into this well documented, gently warming, centuries long trend as a continuation of it -not the start.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
Some might believe that this all suggests that CO2 appears to be a somewhat weak climate driver that is overwhelmed by natural variability, and that our international institutions appear to have inexplicably forgotten their climate history and not be aware that, far from being ‘unprecedented,’ the apparent cyclical nature of our climate explains the current temperature trends very nicely.
Historic instrumental temperature records can be found here on my web site together with a variety of related articles.
http://climatereason.com/LittleIceAgeThermometers/
Tonyb
Jul 14: The Guardian is organizing a debate on climate change in London
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jun/30/guardian-debate-climate-science-emails
George Monbiot for the treehuggers, Doug Keenan for the sceptics.
The Guardian still calls the emails ‘hacked’ in order to try to cast criminal aspertions against the sceptics
We’ll see if they can organize a fair debate
Or if the troops of enlightenment can storm the prison of reason this Bastille Day
More cold weather news on the other side of the continent.
Perth has just had its coldest May since 1995, and the wettest May in five years, according to weatherzone.com.au.
Also, Perth has just shivered through its coldest June in 15 years, according to weatherzone.com.au. Unfortunately not much rain to go with it.
Where is that David Jones of the BOM to tell us we are cooking to death? I think he must be hibernating in his Canberra cave during the winter months. Come to think of it, Penny Wong is also hardly heard from these days. Maybe she’s on her winter holidays in the Maldives checking out the sea levels.
Public service announcement:
It may feel cool in Australia right now in many places, dont worry this is only a psychological mass delusion brought on by listening to denialist misinformation, it has been found by 99.9% of the worlds scientists who all agree with each other about everything that denialists are having a psychosomatic hypnotic effect on the general population wherever they spread their misinformation and doubt.
Please do not believe your eyes, they are lying to you. Temperatures in Australia are near record highs and are set to get higher and dangerous climate change brought on by human pollution of the atmosphere is to blame.
At this very moment Penny Wong and her team are quickly recalibrating every Australian temperature measurement device as quickly as they are able to better represent the consensus so please be patient and above all do not listen to any denialist, we suggest digging a hole and then placing your head in said hole untill the denialist has gone.
Remember the government motto, if in doubt pay more taxes and as you will experience ever more doubt then taxes will rise to combat this heinous effect brought on by doubting denialists and remember above all else, the government is here to help you all even if you do not need it,especially if you do not need it.
C’mon you Ozzies. I thought you were tougher than this. The next ice age is just around the corner and then you will be able to moan about the weather just like poms. Just don’t build any damn windmills. You will need nuclear reactors and lots of them.
As we say up here, sure it is cold, but its a dry cold.
Hiking through snow on June 24, 2010:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/olddognewtrick/4734012431/
Henry@Grumpy Old Man & Stephen
I do believe that we are entering a global cooling period
However, somehow I am thinking that we wont have an ice age
simply because to fall into an ice age you need snow covering of most of the earth
(that would send the sunlight back to space instead of being absorbed as heat by earth)
somehow, I am thinking that people wont stand by as the snow piles up around them. I think someone will figure out a plan to get rid of the snow?
Hemnry@ Stephen
So what is your proposed mechanism, i.e. what makes the major cloud covers to move towards the equator rather than to the poles?
CodeTech says:
June 30, 2010 at 1:23 am
I’m not buying it.
They’re saying the clear skies overnight are the cause for losing daytime heating. But… we all know that clouds, being merely water, can’t possibly hold in heat. Not only that, but we also all know that CO2 is a much more effective blanket, holding in heat.
So, ignore the thermometer (climatologists do, and what’s good for them is good for me) and realize that this is actually a sign of a nearing tipping point of hyper-global heating.
I hope that was sarcasm …
You say CO2 ‘holds in heat’?
Well then, if such is supposed to be the case, then explain why all the Arctic and Antarctic ice which has trapped CO2 within its matrix isn’t melting in vast rivers of water?
And do tell how –with all that ground-level CO2– that there’s any such thing as frost forming on the ground?
“Anyone browsing the diary of Samuel Pepys for January 1660/61-the year the Royal Society was established- would read….”
For those seeking such a worthwhile divertissement, this is where to find Pepys diaries
http://www.pepys.info/fire.html#anchor600522
Far more interesting than the current witterings of the trolls!
Henry@Stephen
sorry, I see that you did try to propose a mechanism, it is just that I do not understand how you think it works,
i.e. what causes the movement of the clouds towards the equator and what causes the movement of the major jets more towards the poles. You say it is pressure difference caused by temp. difference?
But then we are back to where we were or where we came from: the energy from the sun is constant, no matter what.
Pleasant 36C in California
The ETS has started here lots of people on talk back raido 99% think its a rotten tax.
The price of c02 has been set at $25 a ton. Some power prices have gone up 12% which means that we could pay some were between 0.24c-0.30c per kwh + GST.
its A SAD DAY IN NEW ZEALAND FOR THOSE WHO KNOW WHAT’S GOING ON.
Mark.R says:
June 30, 2010 at 11:22 am
The ETS has started here lots of people on talk back raido 99% think its a rotten tax.
The price of c02 has been set at $25 a ton. Some power prices have gone up 12% which means that we could pay some were between 0.24c-0.30c per kwh + GST.
its A SAD DAY IN NEW ZEALAND FOR THOSE WHO KNOW WHAT’S GOING ON.
Old saying: When the going gets tough, the tough get going.
Not knowing precisely how your government operates down under, allow me this: Short of not actually repealing that machination (ETS), you should have your government tax the power companies at the same rate as your increase, and then have those increases rebated back to you, either directly or through tax breaks.
If the power companies are going to play stupid games in order to make money hand-over-fist, then you tax the bejesus out of them to the tune of their rate increases.
Sooner or later –probably sooner– they’ll wake up and quit playing the carbon-come con game.
tallbloke says:
June 30, 2010 at 12:19 am
But it can’t be anything to do with the sun being quiet… nononononononono
Cold winters 2008-9 2009-10
[–ETC., ETC.–]
VILLABOLO SAYS:
Our Sun has been cool for the past few decades.
Also the decrease in sunspot activity started before 2008.
And why are you emphasizing Winters and ignoring Summers? You know, like ignoring several hundred deaths in Australia when it had temperatures of 115F in Melbourne as well as record temperatures of 122F in South Africa. I guess those sunspots reappear during the Summer.
They must really be out in force right now but only over Africa and recently India and Pakistan.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100615_globalstats.html
Cherries, cherries, I love cherries!
Enneagram says:
June 30, 2010 at 7:15 am
This flunks so many sniff tests I went to http://www.mherrera.org/temp.htm to figure out what happened.
You copied the header from the recent records section, but the data from the all-time Min & Max section., and added the (°C), Max(°F) headers yourself.
The columns above appear to be really location, all-time Min(°C), all-time Max(°C)
-10°C is obviously not 42.2°F, nor is it a sensible diurnal change.
If you were trying to list recent records, you better find a different web page. The “recent” records listed there are for all of 2010. It has no records for the last few days.
Temperatures´records at the other side of the pond:
CHILE
Santiago -6.8 37.5
Valparaiso -3.8 37.7
Arica 1 33.6
Puerto Montt -7.1 34.7
Temuco -8.1 39
Los Angeles -5.7 41.6
Punta Arenas -16.4 30
Balmaceda -28.3 33.4
Ollague -37
Coyhaique Alto -37
Puesto Viejo -40* * unofficial
Evangelista Island -8 23
Robinson Crusoe Isl. 3 28
Mataveri(Easter Isl.)7.2 31.1
PERU
Lima Airport 8.7 33.9
Iquitos 11 39
Cuzco -9 30
Arequipa -4 30
Tacna 0 33.5
Pucallpa 8 40
Neshuya 41.1
Mazo Cruz -25.2* * unofficial temperature of -27.7C also recorded
Chuapalca -28.2* *
Good heavy frost in South Island New Zealand this morning. A bit of drizzle yesterday means ice on the driveway. Not particularly unusual for winter during la Nina – cold and wet combined for weeks on end, but unpleasant. Even the recent immigrants from the UK are complaining about the weather!
Ski fields have opened a bit earlier than usual – if you’re keen on skiing. Apparently very good cover.
Henry Pool says:
June 30, 2010 at 10:51 am
Henry@Stephen
….But then we are back to where we were or where we came from: the energy from the sun is constant, no matter what.
That’s a TRICK, since TSI is TOTAL, all wavelengths.
This is interesting:
http://www.xearththeory.com/introdis_earth_electromagnetic_coil_transformers_step_up_down.html
This one too:
http://www.xearththeory.com/introdis_earth_electromagnetic_coil_transformers_step_up_down.html
And, last but not least:
http://www.holoscience.com/news.php?article=ah63dzac
Richard_the_I says:
June 30, 2010 at 5:47 am
Always remember, and never forget:
Every temperature anomaly that is ever-s0-slightly above average is proof of global warming;
Whilst every weather event that is a record-setting, below normal temperature is normal fluctuation and has nothing whatsoever to do with climate.
VILLABOLO SAYS:
GLOBAL Warming is just that, Global. The statistical average of the whole GLOBE. Yet I understand how some do not want to acknowledge the veracity of satellite data. So we’re not supposed to believe that this January through May of 2010 was the warmest overall. Nope. It’s all a conspiracy.
villabolo says:
June 30, 2010 at 11:48 am
VILLABOLO SAYS:
Our Sun has been cool for the past few decades.
Also the decrease in sunspot activity started before 2008.
And why are you emphasizing Winters and ignoring Summers? You know, like ignoring several hundred deaths in Australia when it had temperatures of 115F in Melbourne as well as record temperatures of 122F in South Africa. I guess those sunspots reappear during the Summer.
They must really be out in force right now but only over Africa and recently India and Pakistan.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100615_globalstats.html
Cherries, cherries, I love cherries!
Since you’re so inclined to talk about warm weather, and disinclined to discuss cold weather, then in light of there being said cold weather, you’ll please explain how it would be quite cold in one place yet very warm in another?
It wouldn’t have anything to do with weather station siting, would it?
No, of course not. Not in your perfect world of propagandizing AGW …
Henry chance says:
June 30, 2010 at 6:34 am
Hide the decline. Joe Romm is scouring the lesser 48 and finding a record high temp or two. They were dead silent during the winter when thousands of cattle froze to death in Mongolia.
VILLABOLO RESPONDS:
No, they weren’t dead silent. There was no need to specify Mongolia when AGW were emphasizing the entire colder than usual region which was only a small fraction of the entire Earth.
First, Mongolia is a cold desert. Second, the colder than average temperatures during the Winter of 2009/2010 affected up to 15% of the Earth’s surface area. The other 85% was in the typical range for Global Warming.
The entire Southern Hemisphere was sizzling with 122F in South Africa, heat waves in Brazil and Australia.
The Arctic Sea was 10F warmer than normal.
CHERRIES, CHERRIES, CHERRIES, CHERRIES!
Don’t fail to see the forest for the trees.
Enneagram says:
June 30, 2010 at 7:15 am
Record temperatures Australia 2010:
AUSTRALIA………..C°……F°
Canberra Airport -10 42.2
Brisbane Airport -0.1 40.2
Brisbane City 2.3 43.2 etc.
I don’t remember the formulae for converting between C and F but I think Hansen has been involved in converting to the F temps above. As I remember 32degrees is freezing for Farenheit. How can -10C convert to 42.2F?
“GLOBAL Warming is just that, Global. The statistical average of the whole GLOBE. Yet I understand how some do not want to acknowledge the veracity of satellite data. So we’re not supposed to believe that this January through May of 2010 was the warmest overall. Nope. It’s all a conspiracy.”
I have no problem with the satellite soundings. But the soundings go back to only 1979. Big deal. I never get excited about the “coldest Sept or the Warmest Feb since…” because true climate science looks at time periods much long than 30 years. If one wants to be truthfull, it one should look at periods that go back 200-400 years. And if one looks close enough, one could see periods where there was enough climate variation (in both temp and precip) to warrant a closer look. Goiing back 1000 years, this period of abrubt climate variation occured during the Little Ice Age (for the mid-lattitudes), and the MWP for the subtropics and tropics. Much of this climate variation caused untold humand suffering (devastating droughts in the sub-tropics during the MWP, and famines in the mid-lattitudes during the LIA).
So when an Alarmists posts that 2010 was warmest year ever, what they really mean is that 2010 was the warmest year since 1979. And even then, there are many caveats.
It’s interesting how much steam has run out of the Alarmist’s narrative. They are essientially relegated to chasing monthly Artic ice anomalies. Even Dr Mann is giving the game up (for now, anyway). In 20 years, AGC (Anthropogenic Global Cooling) will be all the rage. And the nonsense goes on….
Rhoda R says:
June 30, 2010 at 12:33 pm
Just copied from the linked source
http://www.mherrera.org/temp.htm
Conversion formula:
C°= F°-32/180
VILLABOLO SAYS:
GLOBAL Warming is just that, Global. The statistical average of the whole GLOBE. Yet I understand how some do not want to acknowledge the veracity of satellite data. So we’re not supposed to believe that this January through May of 2010 was the warmest overall. Nope. It’s all a conspiracy.
So a simple answer to this question would be nice:
When was the last time you (VILLABOLO) wrote and complained to the press that local weather is not Global Warming? Seeing as though you are so serial about all of this you should be shouting it from the roof tops everytime they get the facts wrong.
Or should I google your name and see how many times you complained to the press?
Or posted your bigotted comments on certain websites?
You never did complain did you? Because it suits your AGENDA.
Troll away, you will win no converts here.
Reply: Stop the food fight please. ~ ctm
Rhoda R says:
June 30, 2010 at 12:33 pm
You are right: First column is Min. and second column is Max.
villabolo says:
June 30, 2010 at 12:32 pm
“[…]
There was no need to specify Mongolia when AGW were emphasizing the entire colder than usual region which was only a small fraction of the entire Earth.[…]”
What do you mean with “AGW were emphasizing the entire colder than usual region”? Do you mean that Mongolia only appeared so cold because it was so hot everywhere else?
“”” Gerard says:
June 30, 2010 at 12:53 am
Kyneton (500m Elevation) in Central Victoria is usually cold in winter but Monday was exceptionally cold starting out at -4.5 and with a max of 7.1, yesterday was even colder with a max of 5.1 brrr with strong northerly winds most unusual as the cold winds generally come from the south. I say thank God for global warming otherwise it would be really cold! “””
You’ve got places in Victoria that have 500 metres elevation ! ?
Wow; you blokes are just about in outer space !
I thought the reason it never rains in Australia, was because it is so bloody low, that the clouds jut blow right on across, and never hit anything that pushes them high enough to precipitate.
But you are on the crusty side of the pizza anyway; along with my Kiwi Mates; so it isn’t supposed to get cold down there.
My big Sister lives in Glen Waverley; so she probably has to wrap the pipes at night to stop them freezing up.
Rotorua, New Zealand, we have a heavy frost this morning (with beautiful clear blue skies). Further south it is even colder.
What better way to celebrate the first day of NZ’s very own ETS!
It is interesting to note that, of the 4 winters I have experienced in Rotorua, the locals have claimed with 3 of them that they were the coldest for years. The winter before last we had snow fall once, which they said was the first time in about 20 years. Last winter it snowed 3 times. This winter is shaping up like the last two.
Geoff Sharp says:
June 30, 2010 at 7:24 am
“Welcome to the Landscheidt Minimum, expect more to follow for the next 20 years. David Archibald is also of the opinion recently in Melbourne that barycentric forces will see us enter a Dalton like minimum.”
As long as it stays in South Australia and does not reach North Australia, that`s that`s the Melbourne minimum for you.
J.Hansford says:
June 30, 2010 at 4:30 am
“Bluddy freezing up here in Tropical Nth Qld too!….. 28C durin’ th’ day and a freezing 16C at night…. If it keeps this up I’ll probably have to put a shirt on….. ;-)”
read; June 30, 2010 at 3:50 am
villabolo says:
June 30, 2010 at 12:14 pm
VILLABOLO SAYS:
GLOBAL Warming is just that, Global. The statistical average of the whole GLOBE. Yet I understand how some do not want to acknowledge the veracity of satellite data. So we’re not supposed to believe that this January through May of 2010 was the warmest overall. Nope. It’s all a conspiracy.
You’ve been called out before on this matter, but continue to bloviate.
What about all of those poorly sited weather stations which produce false high temperature data?
What goes on now in the S. Hemisphere is what will most likely happen in the N. Hemisphere come December.
The Literary record says this is what will happen, during times of sleepy Solar Cycles, and it’s happening.
Alarmists will have a hard time blaming our cold nights on aerosols … I would have thought that they should keep nights warmer. Clear skies mean greater radiant heat loss on a still night, ( despite the overhanging trees …
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/sydney_wxstation2.jpg )
JP says:
June 30, 2010 at 12:50 pm
[–SNIP–]
“I have no problem with the satellite soundings. But the soundings go back to only 1979. Big deal. I never get excited about the “coldest Sept or the Warmest Feb since…” because true climate science looks at time periods much long than 30 years. If one wants to be truthfull, it one should look at periods that go back 200-400 years.”
[–SNIP–]
“So when an Alarmists posts that 2010 was warmest year ever, what they really mean is that 2010 was the warmest year since 1979. And even then, there are many caveats.”
It’s interesting how much steam has run out of the Alarmist’s narrative. They are essientially relegated to chasing monthly Artic ice anomalies.
VILLABOLO SAYS:
Concerning your point about taking 200-400 years worth of data have you by any chance heard of ice core samples?
As for AGWs running out of steam I’ve heard them say the same thing about Skeptics. From what I have seen, without any taking their word for it, there is obviously a paradigm shift occuring amongst Skeptics. At least on this site it seems that they are shifting from “The Arctic Will Regrow” to “It’s Normal For the Arctic to Be Ice Free Every Once In While, and it Does No Harm”.
Since, in my not so humble opinion, I believe that the Arctic Ice Cap will be ice free during Summer, Global Cooling, Anthropogenic or Natural, is definitely not going to be all the rage. For those particular Skeptics who don’t suffer from Orwellian Amnesia it will be the ultimate embarrassment.
Since you like to predict what will happen in 20 years let me put my two cents in.
1) Arctic Ice Cap 90% ice free during the Summer by 2015-2020. There will be a remaining band of ice hugging the northern parts of Canada that will cling for dear life, not wanting to die. This would be due to their being over shallow colder waters that will take longer to warm up.
2) The process of the ice cap will not open up instantly throughout the entire Summer but in stages. Perhaps, at first, it will be open for a few days. Then later for a few weeks progressing to months. How long this progression will take I have no idea.
3) Since we are always getting La Ninas, this situation could reverse itself temporarily. I therefore predict that many will be celebrating as if it were 2008&2009.
4) I predict “Natural Global Warming” will be the official position of the Koch brothers and company.
[no disparaging other commenters please ~ ctm]
villabolo says:
June 30, 2010 at 12:32 pm
[–snip–]
VILLABOLO RESPONDS:
No, they weren’t dead silent. There was no need to specify Mongolia when AGW were emphasizing the entire colder than usual region which was only a small fraction of the entire Earth.
First, Mongolia is a cold desert. Second, the colder than average temperatures during the Winter of 2009/2010 affected up to 15% of the Earth’s surface area. The other 85% was in the typical range for Global Warming.
No mention of poorly sited weather stations.
Why do you keep avoiding the obvious?
KADAKA SAYS:
Weather is not climate unless weather is climate change. This is cold, therefore it is not climate change, therefore it is just weather.
🙂
So what?
So I guess that would be about 40 degrees? How many kilos or stone would that be, about half a kilometer?
DirkH says:
June 30, 2010 at 1:05 pm
villabolo says:
June 30, 2010 at 12:32 pm
“[…]
There was no need to specify Mongolia when AGW were emphasizing the entire colder than usual region which was only a small fraction of the entire Earth.[…]”
What do you mean with “AGW were emphasizing the entire colder than usual region”? Do you mean that Mongolia only appeared so cold because it was so hot everywhere else?
VILLABOLO RESPONDS:
Dirk, I specifically stated, right below the quote you present, that 15% of the Earth was colder than usual. Mongolia is not 15% of the Earth.
I am referring to a band (roughly speaking because it changed shape daily), that was colder than usual, positioned right below the Antarctic and most of Canada (at times).
From north to south it went from the Canadian border (often times) to somewhat south of Cuba. Then going eastward it would cover Europe and proceed to Russia, Siberia, parts of China and Mongolia, then southwest Canada completing the circuit.
This unusual situation where basically the Arctic region (10F above average) and the band I just described occurred because of a weather phenomenon called Negative Arctic Oscillation. It could, in simple terms, be described as the Arctic hurling more of its frigid air than usual and at the same time sucking in warm air from regions south.
It’s worth noting that the Arctic was hurling most of its frigid air south. It was not COLDER than usual as most people would assume.
This Negative Arctic Oscillation did not go further down than just below Cuba and it certainly did not reach the Equator let alone effect the Southern Hemisphere.
while Australia ‘freezes’ (memories of copenhagen?):
30 June: Brisbane Times: When ocean views get a little too close
The government should provide special loans to people who lose their homes to rising sea levels caused by climate change, a leading economist says.
The idea has been floated at the Climate Adaptation Futures Conference on the Gold Coast, which has attracted nearly 1000 delegates from around the world.
Economist Dr Leo Dobes, from The Australian National University in Canberra, says the time will come when people are forced to retreat from areas which will be flooded or eroded as our oceans rise….
(Donovan Burton from the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility ) “If we move (them) inland too far we have to deal with issues like heat stress, and with 25 per cent of Australia’s population going to be over the age of 65 by 2030 and more heatwave events predicted, it’s going to be a challenging task.”
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/environment/when-ocean-views-get-a-little-too-close-20100630-zlwz.html
30 June: ABC: Flannery urges Govt to push carbon reduction scheme
Former Australian of the Year, Professor Tim Flannery, has told delegates at the Climate Adaptation Futures conference on Queensland’s Gold Coast that it is vital a carbon pollution reduction scheme (CPRS) is introduced.
Federal Climate Change Minister Penny Wong has called for scientists to help build a consensus for a price on carbon but Professor Flannery says the Government must also argue the case…
“If we don’t get the CPRS in place there is a risk that adaptation will become just unmanageable,” he said.
“The changes will be so big we won’t be able to adapt. ..
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/30/2940783.htm
CORRECTION!:
IN MY PREVIOUS POST OF JUNE 30, 2010 2;48 PM I MADE REFERENCE, IN THE SECOND PARAGRAPH OF MY RESPONSE, TO “ANTARCTICA” WHEN IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN “THE ARCTIC”
My bad. 🙁
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/06/30/record-cold-down-under/#comment-420503
1st of July here in NZ.
Our government has today, despite almost total opposition from the people of NZ, implemented an all-gasses, all-sectors Emissions Trading Scheme. In doing so, the governemnt has been able to fund domestic wealth transfer from consumers to Maori forrestry interests thereby shoring up their electoral coalition. The NZ government has also set itself up for a windfall from state-owned power generators as prices rise to sustain ETS costs. It is a scam. It is broken election promises. It is a dark day for NZ.
In Adelaide, until 29 June our weather reports were full of doom and gloom mentions that we were well below the June rainfall average. Then, on 30 June, we had enough to exceed the average. The weather report then stated that Adelaide is still below the 6 month average.
I always thought that an average was a figure created from measurements above and below it. We seem to be more than happy to accept rainfall above the average but it’s disaster when below. However, when we look at temperatures, readings above the average are bad but not those below, as with the current cold temps as this will be claimed to be ‘weather’, not climate.
I’m confused.
No one believed me when I told them it was the Sun stupid.
Not knowing precisely how your government operates down under, allow me this: Short of not actually repealing that machination (ETS), you should have your government tax the power companies at the same rate as your increase, and then have those increases rebated back to you, either directly or through tax breaks.
A tax break is scheduled, as it happens.
Carbon tax on power generation and fuel use in New Zealand is a non-issue. Almost all our carbon fuel is imported. Anything that reduces our reliance on imported petrol is a good thing.
NZ electricity generation is mostly hydro, with a bit of geothermal. Houses are heated by electricity, sometimes wood. Coal and oil are almost never used to heat homes. We have very little heavy coal or oil consuming industries. (The same scheme in Australia would have a very different effect, since they have so little hydro.)
The big deal with the ETS is the taxing of farming. That is where we have an economic advantage over the rest of the world, and where the ETS could hurt us badly. The farming case is sadly weakened because farmers are doing very well economically at the moment, with high commodity prices.
So ETS will barely effect most of us in the towns, and the farmers are already wealthy. Hence the scheme could be pushed through.
We may think it is cold in Sydney but wait until they have ‘adjusted and corrected’ the figures – it will no doubt prove that this was the warmest June ever.
Harvard University have given their name to the usual climate alarmist stories, while the investment manager for Harvard University has around a billion dollars invested in New Zealand’s forests, thus obtaining millions of dollars in carbon credits from the NZ Emissions Trading Scheme that became operative today, 1 July 2010.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aNxW1iyn095E
Harvard Says Kidney Stones, Malaria Are Climate Risks
http://www.nzsuperfund.co.nz/news.asp?pageID=2145831983&RefID=2141733114
The New Zealand Superannuation Fund announced today [31 October 2006] that it has entered into an agreement with Harvard Management Company (Harvard) to acquire a minority interest in the Kaingaroa forest estate for approximately NZ$300 million. Harvard will retain ownership of the majority of the estate. Property management will continue to be undertaken by Timberlands Limited, based in Rotorua.
Kaingaroa is an estate of approximately 170,000 hectares of cutting rights to plantation forest located in the Central North Island of New Zealand. The bulk of the timber is Radiata Pine, with a small quantity of Douglas Fir. The combination of high rates of growth, flat topography, and close proximity to numerous timber mills plus the Port of Tauranga make Kaingaroa one of the premier timber estates in the world.
…
Harvard Management Company is the investment manager for Harvard University.
…
At June 30, 2006, the Harvard endowment was valued at US$29.2 billion. Timberland investments currently represent just over 4% of that total. [US$1.2 billion]
Mooloo says:
June 30, 2010 at 3:57 pm
“A tax break is scheduled, as it happens.
Carbon tax on power generation and fuel use in New Zealand is a non-issue. Almost all our carbon fuel is imported. Anything that reduces our reliance on imported petrol is a good thing.”
Actually the tax break is completely unrelated to the ETS.
I guess you are unaware of the Oil fields off Taranaki that are just starting to come on-line and the ones proposed in Hawkes Bay.
Also seem unaware of the coal we export to China.
“So ETS will barely effect most of us in the towns, and the farmers are already wealthy. Hence the scheme could be pushed through.”
Guess the scheduled power and fuel price rises that are planned (and have been predicted in the media) will catch you by surprise then.
At a recent Logging expo there was a presentation by someone representing the wood fuel pellet industry. He went through all the usual AGW BS at the start of his presentation (Polar bear on the usual melting ice berg etc.)
He also went through the process to create these enviro-friendly pellets. The pellets are debarked, dried, ground up & compressed trees. (Nothing more or less)
The contention is that they are much better for the environment than burning wood as they produce much less ash- apparently the bark produces that.
However, the pellet creation process involves drying the wood chips (wet chips are shipped 80km from Rotorua to Taupo because Taupo has a drier at its plant, whilst already dry chips are shipped in the opposite direction to the dry chip only plant in Rotorua). When the chips are compressed this raises the temperature of the chips to about 80C, meaning they have to be cooled.
I (amongst many others in the audience) was left wondering how much pollution (let alone any C02 emissions) was produced by the process, and how much could be saved by just burning the wood the old fashioned way!
I guess Solomon was right- everything under the sun is folly!
I’m in Sydney. Getting into bed is an unsavoury experience. I’m currently working late, and slipping between the sheets in the small hours is like getting into a refrigerator.
Yup, it’s record-breakingly cold in Sydney, and we know that when record cold days happen somewhere around the world, global warming must be a hoax.
However, there’s a little fly in that ointment. The number of record-breaking hot days far outweigh cold in cities around the world.
http://www.mherrera.org/temp.htm
And that has been the case annually since the inception of that website in 2002.
http://www.mherrera.org/records.htm
barry says:
“However, there’s a little fly in that ointment. The number of record-breaking hot days far outweigh cold in cities around the world.”
Yes, there’s a fly in the ointment. But it isn’t the one you’re imagining.
[PS: my condolences on the frigid weather there. I recommend an electric blanket. Don’t forget to purchase the requisite carbon offsets!]
Smokey, that site covers about 1600 cities and towns around the world. Anthony points out that his post is a weather, not climate report. My reply was in general to the commenters here that seem to see a climatic significance in the abnormally cold weather of one city.
But perhaps you’re referring to UHI? Never mind that the effect is minimal, as shown at various skeptic websites recently (The Air Vent, Lucia’s), it would appear from the few data points referred to in the top post that Sydney has bucked the imagined trend, eh?
If you have a comprehensive list of rural sites that displays record-breaking weather over time, by all means substantiate whatever it is you’re implying. However, I seem to remember a post not too long ago at WUWT showing a stronger heat island trend in small towns than in the cities. Fortunately, there aren’t any cities or towns in the seas, at the North Pole or in space (satellite record), so we’ve non-city/town data to peruse and these all show warming. It’s statistically very likely that we’ll see the same results of record-breaking hot weather for cities as any other broad data set. I don’t see how you’re going to find data that supports whatever it is you’re hinting at.
Unless you zero in on a few cold data points in a city or two. 🙂
Thanks for the condolences. Bon mots are always appreciated. Luckily, I don’t suffer the cold as I used to, and I believe that’s come about from a thickening of the skin.
Barry,
Based on your last comments, I’d love to have a beer with you. Thick skin and all.☺
Cheers. 🙂
Off Topic: But a damn fine interview with Anthony at http://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/doomed-planet/2010/06/anthony-watts-interviewed
That’s OK, the cold will help keep the funnel web and redback spider populations down!! The upside of global cooling = less critters.
Why is the AAO so positive?
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao_index.html
Perth (west coast Australia) also set a “coldest ever minimum” for June a few days ago.
Thanks Anthony for a great night on Tuesday in Perth. It was an absolute pleasure to meet you and the team (Jo Nova, David Archibald and Bob Carter). Keep up the good work. Cheers. Kim.
Villabolo,
So, you never did respond. In fact, you are making my point. Keep chasing weather trends, and when you are finished we’ll talk climate. You won’t havde to wait 20 years to see an offset in the warming. It’s coming in the next 2-4 years.
One question:
What drives the AO? Why did it turn negative last summer and autumn?
Barry,
1)Who says the UHI is minimal
2)Where do you get your classification of rural vs urban sites?
3)Do you really believe that most of the surface data used by HadCru, NOAA, or NASA (which are mainly areodromes) have no UHI?
“The Arctic Sea was 10F warmer than normal.”
And my response is:
1)Warmer than what?
Artic waters are the result of advected warmer waters from the equator. And the last time I checked, it is the sun and not the atmosphere that warms the surface of the earth (Alarmists may be surprised by this fact. As a matter of fact, it is the surface of the earth that warms the atmosphere above it). I seriously doubt that GHGs cause the ocean currents.
“Henry Pool says:
June 30, 2010 at 10:51 am
Henry@Stephen
sorry, I see that you did try to propose a mechanism, it is just that I do not understand how you think it works,
i.e. what causes the movement of the clouds towards the equator and what causes the movement of the major jets more towards the poles. You say it is pressure difference caused by temp. difference?
But then we are back to where we were or where we came from: the energy from the sun is constant, no matter what.”
I think that some aspect of the flow of energy from the sun (probably the level of speed and irregularity in the solar wind) affects the speed of the energy flux from stratosphere to space.
An active sun seems to accelerate the flux to give a cooling stratosphere whereas a less active sun seems to do the opposite.
I cannot see how one can explain the shifts in the jets without a mechanism of that nature
villabolo:
“It could, in simple terms, be described as the Arctic hurling more of its frigid air than usual and at the same time sucking in warm air from regions south.”
So do ya think that might explain the high, then low of sea ice this season?
You just described natural variablity.
@rbateman says:
June 30, 2010 at 2:12 pm
“What goes on now in the S. Hemisphere is what will most likely happen in the N. Hemisphere come December.”
Parts of next December will be below normals, nothing too dramatic though as we have a very mild November on the way.
“Geoff Sharp says:
Welcome to the Landscheidt Minimum, expect more to follow for the next 20 years. David Archibald is also of the opinion recently in Melbourne that barycentric forces will see us enter a Dalton like minimum.”
It’s an idea gaining followers…
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/06/29/get-ready-for-a-cold-winter/
btw, the cold coffee story is here:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/06/28/brazilian-iced-coffee/
and a bit about the South African cold:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/06/15/south-africa-hit-with-hard-start-to-winter/
but I’m sure it’s just local weather (all over the hemisphere…)
Henry@Stephen
We must come up with a reasonable explanation (mechanism) for global warming and global cooling. We already know the simple equation of the sun’s energy coming to earth. I am sure that one day when we look back at this we will laugh at the simple truth that is staring us in the face.
Just to come back on this: If you consider the magnetic field of the sun – which seems to be fluctuating (depending on an active or inactive sun) – how does this affect the magnetic field of earth? Is there not some inference? (is that the right word for the cancelation like in waves?) ) There are indeed some metal and other ions in rainwater (clouds), I remember measuring this a long time ago. Your explanation does not work because I think the observation was that during global cooling the clouds (from both SH and NH) seem to be moving more towards the equator as opposed to moving to the poles, thereby covering more square area of earth with clouds then if they were moving more towards the poles.
More glacier melt news
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100701/ap_on_sc/as_indonesia_dying_glacier
Hi Anthony,
How nice it is to see how quickly you slipped into the traditional Aussie way of nicely taking the mickey out of the Americans. Ever since you have been our guest, WUWT has had many articles in the “ridicule” category, many of them directed to you home country.
You are a fast learner and I offer you Keys to the City of Oz on behalf of all Australians (though I have not yet asked if anyone else agrees – a mere sampling error that you will quicly detect).
Well done.
villabolo says:
June 30, 2010 at 12:14 pm
Richard_the_I says:
June 30, 2010 at 5:47 am
Always remember, and never forget:
Every temperature anomaly that is ever-s0-slightly above average is proof of global warming;
Whilst every weather event that is a record-setting, below normal temperature is normal fluctuation and has nothing whatsoever to do with climate.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Always remember, and never forget:
Every temperature that is ever-so-slightly below average is proof of global cooling.
Whilst every weather event that is a record-setting, above normal temperature is normal fluctuation and has nothing whatsoever to do with climate.
Sound familiar?
Rhoda R says:
June 30, 2010 at 12:33 pm
Enneagram says:
June 30, 2010 at 7:15 am
Record temperatures Australia 2010:
AUSTRALIA………..C°……F°
Canberra Airport -10 42.2
Brisbane Airport -0.1 40.2
Brisbane City 2.3 43.2 etc.
I don’t remember the formulae for converting between C and F but I think Hansen has been involved in converting to the F temps above. As I remember 32degrees is freezing for Farenheit. How can -10C convert to 42.2F?
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Hello? Isn’t it bleeding obvious that this is min and max temperatures Centigrade?!
JP says:
June 30, 2010 at 12:50 pm
“GLOBAL Warming is just that, Global. The statistical average of the whole GLOBE. Yet I understand how some do not want to acknowledge the veracity of satellite data. So we’re not supposed to believe that this January through May of 2010 was the warmest overall. Nope. It’s all a conspiracy.”
I have no problem with the satellite soundings. But the soundings go back to only 1979. Big deal. I never get excited about the “coldest Sept or the Warmest Feb since…” because true climate science looks at time periods much long than 30 years. If one wants to be truthfull, it one should look at periods that go back 200-400 years. And if one looks close enough, one could see periods where there was enough climate variation (in both temp and precip) to warrant a closer look. Goiing back 1000 years, this period of abrubt climate variation occured during the Little Ice Age (for the mid-lattitudes), and the MWP for the subtropics and tropics. Much of this climate variation caused untold humand suffering (devastating droughts in the sub-tropics during the MWP, and famines in the mid-lattitudes during the LIA).
So when an Alarmists posts that 2010 was warmest year ever, what they really mean is that 2010 was the warmest year since 1979. And even then, there are many caveats.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Good grief, the AGW proponents can only look back to 1979, and you go back 1000 years? Where were the satelites then? We have actual measurements going back some 200 years and proxies as far back as it suits. Warmest year “ever”is your invention, science always uses a reference date.
JP says:
July 1, 2010 at 12:06 am
Barry,
1)Who says the UHI is minimal
2)Where do you get your classification of rural vs urban sites?
3)Do you really believe that most of the surface data used by HadCru, NOAA, or NASA (which are mainly areodromes) have no UHI?
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
1) Just Google it
2) as above
3) It does not really matter where the sites are and even the accuracy of the thermometer (if consistent) The trend will prevail. I measured the temperature at the nearest areodrome next to the thermometer using a thermocouple. Then I went 1 km away, no concrete in sight, only grass, no buildings or even a tree and measured again. Result the same within .13C.
So Anthony starts a tread about weather, which he knew would turn to climate, because too many haven’t got a clue about the difference.
Cold down under? Of course it is, cold air sinks and hot air rises.
@JP,
Of the skeptical websites you can try Lucia’s (The Blackboard) for:
UHI in the USA
Raw global data urban v rural (and GISSTemp)
Raw global series v adjusted (to see if UHI has been accounted for – e.g, GISSTemp trend is lower than raw and any other series – the difference is not huge)
The Air Vent for:
CRUTemp v raw, where they state:
When you compare the trend differences in the urban v rural and CRUTemp v raw for the century, there is a similar amount of adjustment. CRUTemp appears to have accounted for UHI – and there’s not much difference.
Of the non-skeptical websites, you can compare urban, rural and airport raw trends here, and urban and rural raw here.
2)Where do you get your classification of rural vs urban sites?
Explained at the websites, both skeptical and non-skeptical.
3)Do you really believe that most of the surface data used by HadCru, NOAA, or NASA (which are mainly areodromes) have no UHI?
I’m sure there is UHI contaminating the raw land data. But my point was that there is no UHI in the seas, in the Arctic, and in space (satellite record), and we see warming in those records. Therefore, you are likely going to see more record hot days than cold in any broad data set, in any year from about 1978, and for most years of the century. That’s the point I made citing actual city and town statistics, when a fair number of commenters in this thread seem to think abnormally cold events from time to time around the world have a climatic significance. Anthony made a point to distinguish between weather and climate in his post. Others didn’t seem to get the message.
Hell, it was in the low 40s in Pennsylvania last night and we are in the middle of summer! Maybe Algore was in town getting “massages” from local Leftist Co-eds.
Global Warming is Kaiser Soze.
It’s a statistical point: anyone who says we aren’t seeing more record-breaking hot days than cold, whether in cities, in rural areas, or on the ocean’s surface is basically saying that the globe has not warmed during the instrumental record. A warming world must perforce produce more record-breaking hot temps than cold.
Unless your argument is that higher global temps reduce warm weather variability and increase cold weather variability.
Henry@Keith.
try to follow our discussion in this threat as to why the tropics are having more clouds and rain. Believe it or not: but it actually has to do with global cooling.
Obviously the rain will cause more melting of ice.
From: Curious Yellow on July 1, 2010 at 7:33 am
Simple question: What were the conditions?
The Urban Heat Island effect is increased with bright sunny conditions, due to the extra heating of the man-made substances like asphalt (tarmac) and concrete, and persists after the sunlight goes away as the substances release their stored heat. Were your measurements taken on a bright sunny day or in the early nightly hours afterwards, or was it a dull cloudy day? At what times did you take your measurements? 1:00 and 1;32 PM, or in the middle of the night? Was there any precipitation or condensation?
What was your equipment? A common thermocouple of a certain type, like K, J, or T? What equipment generated the reading, was this a thermocouple/meter unit allowing a direct reading of the measurement, a thermocouple plugged into a multimeter, perhaps a handheld all-in-one unit?
How did you protect the thermocouple from the elements while taking your readings? Having sunlight fall on it would not be good, nor rain, nor wind movements. How long did you wait for the temperature of the instrument to equalize with the surrounding temperature before you took the measurements? Did you hold the thermocouple with your hand? Did you carefully store it between measurements in your pocket?
When you say “same within .13C,” what are you referring to? What is the accuracy range of the complete setup? Was it calibrated? Is that +/- 0.13° C, or are you reporting the difference as 0.13° and calling the measurements basically equal within the error ranges of the experiment?
You have provided a single instance where you made one set of measurements, and assumed an “Ah-ha, I proved it to myself it’s nothing” position, expecting that to add weight to you argument. Instead, what you have done is given an impression of your understanding of how to conduct scientific research, since said research is what would really have weight in a scientific discussion. And I assure you, you have done a wonderful job of making that impression. 😉
From: barry on July 1, 2010 at 8:38 am
Why must a warming world by necessity do that?
During a month, there are three days that top the high records by 10°F and eight days that break the low records by 1°F. That’s more low records broken than high ones. Does that indicate cooling, or does the whole picture indicate warming?
Offhand it may seem likely you’d get more record-breaking high temps, but remember the nature of such records, how much they get broken by matters. Going above a certain record by 10 ° can be done by just one day, or by ten days that break the preceding record by just 1°.
There is nothing there that must by necessity happen.
Curious Yellow says:
July 1, 2010 at 6:57 am
[–snip–]Always remember, and never forget:
Every temperature that is ever-so-slightly below average is proof of global cooling.
Whilst every weather event that is a record-setting, above normal temperature is normal fluctuation and has nothing whatsoever to do with climate.
Sound familiar?
Why, yes! Yes, it does sound familiar, because all throughout the 19th and 20th Centuries, there have been raving idiots –oh, so sorry– raving lunatic scientists and their cadre of fellow travelers who’ve prognosticated endlessly over the slightest changes of weather, from one year to the next.
For at least the last 200 hundred years, humanity has been in an extended wash cycle of the modern washing machine: Back-and forth, back-and-forth, back-and-forth …
You know: OH–MY–GAWD: WE’RE ALL GONNA DIIIIIIEEEEEE!!!!!!
If it isn’t FREEZING to death, then it’s FRYING to death.
The latest machination lays bare the entire scheme of the hideousness engendered by the cadre which deems it necessary to decimate the whole of humanity in order to save it from … itself?
Yeah, and that includes MILKING us to death with carbon-come taxes in order to make A GAWD ALMIGHTY profit before sending the lot of us to our respective graves.
And of course you support that whole scheme, right?
Curious Yellow says:
July 1, 2010 at 7:33 am
[–snip–]I measured the temperature at the nearest areodrome next to the thermometer using a thermocouple. Then I went 1 km away, no concrete in sight, only grass, no buildings or even a tree and measured again. Result the same within .13C.
So Anthony starts a tread about weather, which he knew would turn to climate, because too many haven’t got a clue about the difference.
You engaged in systematic bias and didn’t even know it.
The very fact of you holding the thermometer biased the temperature.
blackswhitewash.com says:
July 1, 2010 at 2:13 am
villabolo:
“It could, in simple terms, be described as the Arctic hurling more of its frigid air than usual and at the same time sucking in warm air from regions south.”
So do ya think that might explain the high, then low of sea ice this season?
You just described natural variablity.
************************************************************************
VILLABOLO RESPONDS:
Blackwhitewash, I was responding to the commonly made allegation that the Winter of 2009 (Northern Hemisphere) somehow disproves Global Warming. It did not for two reasons:
1) The GLOBAL AVERAGE was not below normal but was in the top ten years. This was especially so in the Southern Hemisphere’s Summer.
2) Even if it were, and that’s a whopper of a story if you claim it, 30 years worth of trend is not going to be nullified by 1,2 or 3 years of deviation.
As to describing this year’s conditions anywhere on the planet that is as silly as asking me how it would affect conditions 2,3 or 4 years from now.
JP says:
July 1, 2010 at 12:02 am
Villabolo,
So, you never did respond. In fact, you are making my point. Keep chasing weather trends, and when you are finished we’ll talk climate. You won’t havde to wait 20 years to see an offset in the warming. It’s coming in the next 2-4 years.
VILLABOLO SAYS:
Since I’ve been responding to a lot of posts I lost track of what it was that you were bringing up. Please remind me.
As far as “chasing weather trends” is concerned I always try to preface statements I make with a Global tour. Then I highlight regional conditions. That way I cannot be accused of cherry picking. Cherry picking is when you fail to mention the whole Global situation.
The Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2009/2010 is a perfect example. Over and over again I keep hearing people mention that situation to the exclusion of what was happening to the other 85% of the Earth. I start by saying that only 15% of the Earth was colder than usual and then I begin to describe the other 85% that was much warmer beginning with the Arctic area and working my way southward. This way I am covering the entire Globe, or if you wish, the Climate for that one season.
I usually throw in an explanation of the Negative Arctic Oscillation situation that was responsible for that limited cold area and emphasize how that cannot be used as disproof of Global Warming.
As far as your statement “You won’t havde to wait 20 years to see an offset in the warming. It’s coming in the next 2-4 years.” is concerned, that is a big gaffe.
When it comes to basic science, trend analysis and ordinary applied intelligence you just never, ever, base a trend on two or three units of time. Whether it’s years with Climatology or days with the Stock Market it is a mistake to “jump the gun” and make predictions which are more a reflection of your desires than they are of reality.
villabolo says:
July 1, 2010 at 4:44 pm
[–snip–]As far as “chasing weather trends” is concerned I always try to preface statements I make with a Global tour. Then I highlight regional conditions. That way I cannot be accused of cherry picking. Cherry picking is when you fail to mention the whole Global situation.[–snip rest–]
You know? You’d be okay if you weren’t so ‘self-convinced’ of how right you think you are.
Allow me to ask you a question: WHY is it, do you suppose, that certain land areas —continents even— regardless of what century you’d like to discuss, are ~always~ dry, and others are less so?
@kadaka
This is another example of only one location. The reference I cited is of ~1600 towns and cities, with records collated for each year (365 days). With such a large sample pool, the chances of what you are describing are so vanishingly small as to be virtually zero. And indeed, the record bears testimony, at least for the last 8.5 years.
http://www.mherrera.org/records.htm
I was careful to point out that this would apply to large data set in previous posts. A handful of selected locales may result in the scenario you describe.
Me:
I see now that this assumption isn’t valid – your point is rather vague on parameters, kadaka. My argument still applies, though.
899 says:
July 1, 2010 at 5:27 pm
You know? You’d be okay if you weren’t so ‘self-convinced’ of how right you think you are.
Allow me to ask you a question: WHY is it, do you suppose, that certain land areas —continents even— regardless of what century you’d like to discuss, are ~always~ dry, and others are less so?
************************************************************************
VILLABOLO SAYS:
You mean YOU are not convinced of how right you are? I am 99% convinced. The other 1% is convinced that I am a butterfly dreaming that it is a human.
Also, please tell me what”self convinced” means? I assumed that no matter how much external information and human mediated objective explanations (that turn out to be right) you listen to that it is inevitably YOUR SELF that does the job of collating information, deducing its meaning and ultimately-ahhh . . .errr, I got it!-CONVINCING ONE’S SELF as to the validity of a situation.
As to your question, other than the fact that it is way off topic (and that this thread seems to be getting tired), it is IN GENERAL a valid question. Nevertheless, it is so basic to Climatology and so involved in explanation, that is not worth posting 3 pages worth of explanation.
villabolo says:
July 1, 2010 at 8:38 pm
VILLABOLO SAYS:
You mean YOU are not convinced of how right you are? I am 99% convinced. The other 1% is convinced that I am a butterfly dreaming that it is a human.
Also, please tell me what”self convinced” means? I assumed that no matter how much external information and human mediated objective explanations (that turn out to be right) you listen to that it is inevitably YOUR SELF that does the job of collating information, deducing its meaning and ultimately-ahhh . . .errr, I got it!-CONVINCING ONE’S SELF as to the validity of a situation.
As to your question, other than the fact that it is way off topic (and that this thread seems to be getting tired), it is IN GENERAL a valid question. Nevertheless, it is so basic to Climatology and so involved in explanation, that is not worth posting 3 pages worth of explanation.
[1] Self-convinced: That aspect of human minds which allows the beholder to believe anything the mind desires, even when it isn’t true.
There’s an old saying: You can’t talk someone out of what they weren’t talked into to begin with.
[2] So in other words, rather than facing the truth, you’d rather keep swallowing the patent CAGW lie. Some continents will –as a result of their locations and character– always be what they are.
Pity you can’t comprehend that.
Enneagram says:
June 30, 2010 at 12:56 pm
Try that with 212°F. Even with proper grouping, it won’t work.
The easiest form to remember (there’s an infinite number) is:
Take the temperature (°F or °C). Add 40. If going to °F, multiply by 9/5, if going to °C, multiply by 5/9. Subtract 40.
I was in country Victoria in January and early February. Only once did the temp. exceed 40C during that time (unlike last year) and I had to wrap up in a warm top on quite a few mornings and use a blanket at night. There were only a few nights when I needed a fan to keep cool; it wasn’t on for long. I am a person who feels the heat too. I wasn’t up in the mountains either.
Henry@Stephen (repeat)
We must come up with a reasonable explanation (mechanism) for global warming and global cooling. We already know the simple equation of the sun’s energy coming to earth. I am sure that one day when we look back at this we will laugh at the simple truth that is staring us in the face.
Just to come back on this: If you consider the magnetic field of the sun – which seems to be fluctuating (depending on an active or inactive sun) – how does this affect the magnetic field of earth? Is there not some inference? (is that the right word for the cancelation of magnetism, like in waves?) ) There are indeed some metal and other ions in rainwater (clouds), I remember measuring this a long time ago. Your explanation does not work because I think the observation was that during global cooling the clouds (from both SH and NH) seem to be moving more towards the equator as opposed to moving to the poles, thereby covering more square area of earth with clouds then if they were moving more towards the poles. This (i.e. the clouds’ moving more prominently to the equator) would undoubtedly lead to a higher albedo (of earth) because of the fact that a higher square area of earth is covered by those clouds (deflecting light).