Reply to: "Ice cap thaw may awaken Icelandic volcanoes"

The economic damage now being inflicted by the
volcano ash upon the British and European economies
appears to be on a scale equivalent to the
economic damage recently inflicted upon Iceland
by the activities of UK and Europe.
This is simply a non-judgmental observation
unrelated to any karma or other
introspection.

But will there be any letters to Anti-Scientific American to point this out?

DJ Meredith (20:21:43) :
If the theory were true, then the MWP would show us to have been awash in volcanoes, right?
=====
Maybe, unless the MWP wasn’t very W.

Using that logic, regions that are still experiencing uplift from the removal of the Pleistocence icecaps should have been a focus for volcanic eruptions as well……..This isn’t science at all but plain geological baloney. But if SA supports AGW, then the editorial brains seem to have been transformed into a special type of baloney.

Mean while the Greens belive the shut down in European air traffic has saved the world tonnes of C02,…but….
Stranded folks don’t tend to stay that way, there’s rail, and buses and cars and all manner of carbonising gadgetry that can move Body A to Location B.
They’re just slower, and lower than a dreamliner, hell they could even take a ferry, or a gypsy’s caravan. Segways are in…
The danger this erruption poses, it seems, is to common sense. Kudos to you sir, Steven Goddard, another cogent, well articulated article.
I abandoned New Scientist and Scientific American a year ago, I can learn more here, thanks to Antony Watts, than in any glossy covered, photo-shopped, periodical.
National Geographic,…you’re on notice too…

Thank you!
Talk about smacking someone right back into their place. When I read that less ice would increase magma I knew they had completely lost their minds. Now Scientific American is no better than some third rate rag. mag.

The analysis in this post has to do with pressures, melting points, and up and down motion. In addition to the numbers provided one might also consider the location at a divergent boundary and look at the spreading numbers. I think this region is going to have eruptions, with or without ice, until the Mid-Atlantic Ridge cools off, locks up tight, and sinks into the abyss.
http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/dynamic/understanding.html
Divergent boundaries occur along spreading centers where plates are moving apart and new crust is created by magma pushing up from the mantle. Picture two giant conveyor belts, facing each other but slowly moving in opposite directions as they transport newly formed oceanic crust away from the ridge crest. [With map of Iceland in context.]

The S.A. article is total nonsense. The Icelandic volcanoes are in rift zones along an extension of the mid-Atlantic ridge. The crust is separating to the east and west at about the speed at which fingernails grow. Glacial ice doesn’t change that speed whether it melts or not. When the crack widens enough, basalt flows out. It’s that simple.

Steve says “This caught my attention because I used to work as a volcano researcher and igneous petrologist.”
hmmmm….my next book will be a romantic novel about a traveling volcanologist named Steve who is called in to calm the nerves of jittery EU air travelers….I’m thinking of calling it “Return to Reykjavík”.
Nice job, Steve, as always! Thanks!

Well done Steven. I think that settles the melting-point question.
I admit I only skimmed the SA piece, but the general idea that melting ice sheets might lead to increased volcanism struck me as credible not because of this factor but because of isostatic rebound and its effect on already-volatile regions such as seams between tectonic plates. Melting ice sheets would be like removing compression bandages from unhealed wounds (a naive metaphor, but you get the idea).
I realise that isostatic rebound is a very slow process, taking place over 100’s of years. Do you have a take on the types and magnitudes of the forces involved at how they compare to the orders required to trigger volcanism in such regions?

Here’s the original paper from GRL on glacier retreat and volcanic activity in Iceland:
http://homepages.see.leeds.ac.uk/~earcpa/2008GL033510.pdf
It’s always better to critique the paper itself, rather than a press release.
In essence, the subsurface pressure changes caused by ice melt (equivalent to the loss of 5 cm of rock per year) are the same order of magnitude as the normal mantle upwelling rate beneath Iceland (1-10cm/yr).
Magma production increases with the upwelling rate. So the current rates of ice loss would be expected to increase the rate of magma production (in the area under the ice) anywhere from 500% to 50%- a pretty significant increase, IMO.

Steve: Correction needed!
“…one basaltic mineral – diposide….” I think you mean: diopside.
Otherwise, good article. Where are these “geologists” making these ridiculous claims coming from? They are as pathetic as Eric what’s-his-name from U. Washington.

Once the ice, which yields water which yields steam which imparts an explosive dimension to these eruptions, is gone, these volcanoes should revert to something like Kilauea – very little ash production.
Another place where ice could pose a problem in relation to volcanism is Mt. Rainier. If that volcano resumes activity (it’s only dormant) the glacier covering the upper portion of the mountain could rapidly melt, posing a threat of catastrophic flooding and mud flows in a heavily populated area. The potential for destruction of property and life is high.

When I read this article earlier this week (linked elsewhere) my jaw dropped. Scientific American lost their patina of respectability as a scientific publication decades ago. Now they are trying to compete with Art Bell’s “Coast To Coast” with George Noory?
When will Richard C. Hoagland appear on the cover?

Pearland Aggie (20:51:23) :
Here is a good explanation and experiment from Argonne National Lab which demonstrates the melting of ice under pressure.
http://www.newton.dep.anl.gov/askasci/gen99/gen99523.htm
The link you provided assumes that pressure is equally applied under the skate, which is incorrect. The ice surface is rough, so the pressure on individual ice crystals is much higher.
Ice gets much less slippery at lower temperatures.

Re closures of commercial (and military) flights:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/vaacuk_vag.html
Graphics update every 6 hours or so.
German combat troops in Afghanistan have been told not to get shot because (at least for now), they can only be casevac’ed to Istambul. So (according to Deutsche Welle) they’ve retreated to barracks, along with others. Instead of making arrangements to casevac to/via alternates like Perth (Western Australia) via DXB. I know that it’s more than twice as far but you can make the distance.

If the water were gone, it is true the volcano would have far less ash propulsion. But i do not believe it will be anything like Kilauea. It has a far higher silica content because that is the nature of tectonic plates. Kilauea does not have such. Then this is a rift eruption, which mean it is not generally conic but lateral. This causes additional problems. Bad ones. Let me cite an example. Loihi is under a great deal of water. 9000 feet off of Hawaii. While water inundates it, that water has virtually no effect on the vulcanism or the make up of ash. The pressure of the water is likely heavier than this glacier. The depth of the magma source for Hawaii volcanoes makes Hawaii a relatively benign volcanic erupter, although the water and silica of sufficient concentration (under other circumstances are explosive. In the Hawaii instance, as I understand it, water only serves to encourage solidification and channelization. Iceland has rift eruptions with silica and water. In many respects this is far more dangerous.

Step 1: Invent Global Warming
Step2: Blame anything “current” on Global Warming
Step3: Tax, Tax, TAX!!!!

The Norwegian Prime Minister was stuck in New York because of “The Cloud”. Then he managed to get to Switzerland, and is now in a car on his way to Norway.
They talk a lot, but dont act as if they believe in their own saying.
Why dont they use Video Conference’s. Why all this travelling? The only outcome is [snip], anyway.

Doug in Seattle (21:36:41) : shutting down all air traffic over northern Europe seems an over reaction.
The density of the dust cloud is very thin, but jet engines ingest a huge volume of air, and there would be a significant flow of foreign material through the engine.
For the engine compressor, it would be like being sand blasted. Clean, shiny smooth blades are best for efficient compression.
The dust melts at the high temperatures of combustion, and it sticks onto downstream surfaces. This distorts the aerodynamic profiles in the turbine, resulting in further power reduction. The additional mass on the blades would cause vibration.
The engine control systems would shut the engine down as the departure from the normal operating range would be diagnosed as a fault.
If the engine could be forced to keep running, the turbine clearances would eventually be bridged, causing rubbing and lumps to break off, and a cascade of damage flowing down through the turbine. There wouldn’t be much left after that.
Not a good idea to fly with any of the above going on. Better late than dead on time – the authorities did the right thing.

Al Gored (21:20:21) :
The ash will block out the sunlight if it keeps it up. No summer. Then fresh snow can fall on the ash and effectively bury it. I watched a special where ancient supermassive volcano hunters found what they were looking for in Greenland. Didn’t stop the Ice Cap there.
I’m not going to get worried about the warmists who will grasp at every hypothetical straw, no matter who says what.
We both know that whatever they come up with, they’ll sure as shouting make a total mess of it. People who are prone to panic don’t have a habit of thinking things through prior to jumping on the PA system.

A long time ago on WUWT where I think the subject involved Geo-engineering and the various “climate scientists” who were advocating all sorts of totally hare brained and potentially catastrophic global climate geo-engineering projects to “stop global warming”, a poster made the comment to the effect that a scientist of his acquaintance had told him, “when you can show me that you can control a volcano then we will sit down and discuss controlling the Earth’s climate!”
I have never forgotten that comment and every time I hear of another significant volcanic eruption I think of that comment and just smile at the hubris and stupidity of those who believe that they have the power to change the global climate and can and will change it to their requirements IF, of course, you give them enough money!
Of course if you ever suggested to these same global climate geo-engineering advocate “scientists” that they first try to exercise control over a small but significant and natural global phenomena such as the current volcanic activity in Iceland which is a quite small item compared to other historic examples of volcanic activity and is a particularly small item when compared to the global climate, they would consider you to be quite mad!
The deficiency in mental capabilities actually resides with the global climate geo-engineering advocates when they can’t even demonstrate ANY ability to modify volcanic activity of any sort and yet claim to be able to geo-engineer the global climate to a set of specifications that they have, in their hubris, judged to be of an absolute necessity for the continuation of human life on this planet.

The amount of pseudo scientific [snip] to which we are subjected on an hourly basis makes you very cynical.
No doubt the EU aviatio agency that seems to have been most active in grounding everything has the safety interests of the travelling public most at heart. But I have yet seen a sensible explanation why jetliners can’t fly under the ash cloud. No one expects them to hedge hop. But, despite what is being put about in the media, planes can fly at 5 or 10 thousand feet. OK, they are designed for 30,000 ft and they do use more fuel. But unless I’ve missed something, it would surely be better to have some planes flying lower than just grounding everything?
Couldn’t be anything to do with another EU “beneficial crisis” with a grab for control of aviation in the pipeline, or could it?
And taking the focus off what’s happening in Greece?
Surely not?

Scientific American knows tabloid science sells well.
How long before Paris Hilton is linke to Global Warming in Scientific American ?

So we wander off into ice-skating …. I think you will find the pressure theory is wrong, and Pearland Aggie post is right. Ice near melting point is just very, very slippery. It’s a surface effect. If you ever tried to pick up a peice of ice that dropped out of your glass onto a hard surface, you would just ….. know that.

According to Al Gore, the volcano must be spewing out millions degrees of ash.

Geoff Sherrington (03:00:43) :
A+ Science!
Espen (03:21:24)
All it takes is a few cool summers to suppress plant growth and we are in deep trouble. Food prices would soar astronomically and collapse the free market system and make currency worthless.
Since scientists are falling from the high positions society has put them in of “All Knowing”. Science itself has made many an error by no one questioning the validity of theories and are they correct.
If I generate a theory, I rip it apart and turn it any way possible to see if it will stand up to the best questioning. I must be doing a hell of a good job as no questions or replies means I must be doing something correctly. On the rare occassion I get a “Very Interesting”.

Fitzy @21:03:09
Latest edition of NGM carries an article on melting Himalayan glaciers. Not referenced so can’t check the source. The description of a “glacier” being ” a deathly shade of black” and “losing mass from the surface down” would indicate soot causing melting rather than increased temperatures. There is a statement that 40% of the glaciers could be gone by 2050. Sounds familiar.
The NGM used to be a great source of information but it has become a mouthpiece for the AGW brigade. Pity.

Uh oh Main Stream Media just made a big boo boo. A few minutes ago a very animated and seemingly brilliant physics professor (an Asian male – I missed his name) gave a stirring description of how glaciers/ice are making this eruption far more damaging – as in the conclusion above state.
Some ABC Good Morning producer is being called on the carpet right now for screwing up the narrative.
Priceless!

ROM (02:49:44) [various “climate scientists” who were advocating all sorts of totally hare brained and potentially catastrophic global climate geo-engineering projects to “stop global warming”]
National Geographic keep broadcasting documentaries for kids about these hare brained schemes. I think we should make a list of those “scientists” and who pays them.

Well I’m anything but surprised to see these politically ‘useful idiots’ trying to scare people with a .0005 change in the melting point of magma after they successfully managed to convince so many people that global warming itself was because of a .00002 human addition to the atmosphere.

The grounding is a procedure invoked when a BA ‘four engined’ plane had a four engine simulateous flame out. They were able to descend and relight. They say By the time the pilot notices the presence of ash, it’s probably too late and so the safest thing to do is ground every thing down wind.

Eyjafjallajokull aka Island-Mountains Glacier web cam LIVE!
http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-thorolfsfelli/
This is how you say “Eyjafjallajokull ”
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/10/Eyjafjallaj%C3%B6kull.ogg
Listen to it 100 (or maybe 1000) times and you’ll be able to say your first word in Icelandic!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eyjafjallaj%C3%B6kull
“Eyjafjallajökull (pronounced [ˈɛɪjaˌfjatlaˌjœːkʏtl̥], translated as “island-mountains glacier”) is one of the smaller glaciers of Iceland. It is situated to the north of Skógar and to the west of the larger glacier Mýrdalsjökull.
The icecap of the glacier covers a volcano (1,666 metres or 5,466 ft in height) which has erupted relatively frequently since the Ice Age, at times bringing rhyolite to the surface.[1] The volcano erupted twice in 2010, on 20 March and 14 April. The April eruption caused massive disruption to air traffic across Northern Europe, with scientists claiming it was ten to twenty times more powerful than the March event. The most recent previous eruption was from 1821 to 1823, causing a fatal glacial lake outburst flood.[citation needed] A previous eruption was in 1612. The crater of the volcano has a diameter of 3–4 kilometres (1.9–2.5 mi) and the glacier covers an area of about 100 square kilometres (39 sq mi).
The south end of the mountain was once part of the island’s Atlantic coastline. As the sea has since retreated some 5 kilometres (3.1 mi), the former coastline has left behind sheer cliffs with a multitude of beautiful waterfalls, of which the best known is Skógafoss. In strong winds, the water of the smaller falls can even be blown up the mountain.”

This eruption might, like the last one, last for two years. Thus some worst case planning by the airline industry is in order, including design changes.
A couple that come to mind:
Filter systems for the engines. Don’t military helicopters already do this?
Abradable coatings for the windscreens and leading edges, which would need to be easily replaceable.
As an alternative, invest in cruise lines!

More proof of AGW, we now have competing theories, so if volcanoes in Iceland become stronger or more frequent or less dangerous, then we can use that as proof of AGW.

At least somebody in the British press has it right, they pissed off an old Nordic god. http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100004999/proof-that-vulcanic-ash-comes-from-a-nordic-god/

This shows why it’s Europe and not so much Iceland whose air travel is restricted. They stopped updating Friday night, for reasons unknown.
http://www.vg.no/bildespesial/spesial.php?id=7609&o=0&katId=-1
I didn’t get a chance to see this article because, after 25 years reading SA, they turned alamist and I had to tell them to keep their glossy fish wrap out of my mail box.

@Steve Goddard
The century-old belief about ice skates being lubricated by the melting of ice under the blade due to increased pressure is wrong.
Explaining Ice: The Answers Are Slippery

I’ve subscribed to Scientific American for several decades and read every issue cover to cover. Overall it’s a great source for keeping up with a broad range of the sciences. The former editor, John Rennie, was a problem in that he is not at all objective on two subjects: global warming and evolution. In those areas he adheres to dogma rather than science and is fanatical about them. We’ll have to wait and see whether his temporary replacement, which will probably become permanent, is any different. I don’t expect a marked change as the clinging to climate and evolutionary dogma are systemic problems stemming from the political, religious, and social persuasions of a large majority of professors in academia. Our university faculties have become notoriously safe harbors for positive atheists and modern day liberals. Nowhere else in the world can one find such a concentration of people holding these beliefs.
Disclaimer: I’m agnostic (weak atheist) when it comes to religion and lean libertarian when it comes to politics.
As Sgt. Joe Friday of Dragnet fame often said to witnesses he was interviewing “Just the facts, ma’amm”. I’m only interested in the facts and the fact is that climate science has turned into climate dogma where science, like Elvis, has left the building.

Could it be that the missing energy could be found in the graves of Galileo, Newton, Maxwell, Bohr Einstein etc where incoming solar energy has somhow induced the remains of these scientific giants to spin rapidly around the (formerly) vertical axis?

Has anyone calculated yet how much global COOLING will be generated by the ash clouds????

@Steve Goddard (23:28:49)
Have you ever tried walking on ice in rubber soled boots? I have. It’s still very slippery and you can’t claim that the sole of the boot has high pressure point contacts as you can with the skate blade because the rubber deforms easily. Yet on any other slippery-smooth surface the boot will grip like mad.
A very thorough exposition and disposition of the pressure melting dogma through the good old fashioned experimental method can be found in a 2005 paper by Robert Rosenberg published in Physics Today.

Jordan (02:05:09) :
I understand all the potential problems. The question though is whether the actual conditions warrant the actions being taken.

Ian L. McQueen (07:40:18) :
The explosivity of volcanoes is primarily determined by steam pressure in the magma chamber.
This Los Alamos paper describes an experiment which demonstrates the concept.
http://www.ees1.lanl.gov/Wohletz/Volcanic%2520dustlike%2520particles.pdf

Well, i guess nobody noticed the link I posted earlier, so I’ll post it again:
http://homepages.see.leeds.ac.uk/~earcpa/2008GL033510.pdf
This is the original paper on the effect of ice loss on volcanic activity that is referenced in the Sci Am article.
In short, hot rock melts when the pressure on it drops. The pressure drop can happen in two ways: 1) as the hot rock rises through the crust (the pressure decreases as depth decreases); or 2) by removing mass at the ground surface, which lowers the pressure at depth.
In iceland, the hot rock is rising through the crust at roughly 5 cm/yr (plus or minus a few cm). The amount of mass loss from the glacier discussed in the paper is the equivalent of removing 5 cm of rock from the surface per year.
So (in the area beneath the glacier) the amount of rock melting caused by the loss of the ice mass is approximately the same as the melt generated just by the hot rock rising through the crust.
The net effect – the ice loss has (very) roughly doubled the rate of magma production in the area beneath the glacier.
Although the calculations Steve G. has done are correct, his analysis and understanding is all wrong.

Doug in Seattle (08:47:55) : “I understand all the potential problems. The question though is whether the actual conditions warrant the actions being taken.”
Its hard to guess other peoples’ background across the blog. Sorry about that.
If it helps, the video in the following link confirms how measurements are being taken, so the decisions should be evidence based. That should help any concerns about over-cautious reaction.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8626625.stm
People with expertise are offering views (like the guy in the video)m although I would expect the aitline operators will be consulting engine OEMs.
I’m conscious that these points are OT for the thread.

stevengoddard (08:55:47) :
Ian L. McQueen (07:40:18) :
The explosivity of volcanoes is primarily determined by steam pressure in the magma chamber.
Steven-
Does this mean that magma is the same composition around the world?
IanM

Far to many ’60s hippies spent far too much time staring at their lava lamps and drawing incorrrect, imbibed conclusions.

The Katla volcano which is only about 25 km from the Eyjafjallajokull volcano has erupted just before the Eyjafjallajokull on three of the previous occasions. So there appears to be some correlation. The last eruption of Katla was in 1918, thus it has a current repose time of 92 years, the longest since about 1500 and Katla seems long over due since it typically erupts twice in a century. It has erupted in a major way about 9 times since 1580. Typical eruption periods were 13 days to about 120 days with last three being about 3-4 weeks.
So it seems to me with all the world focus on manmade greenhouse gases and carbon dioxide only as piloted by IPCC , we have wrongly taken our eye off other natural planetary cycles and potential risks which are far more consequential and immediate. Lets hope that there will now be more sanity about this global warming issue and we start dealing with real world problems . Manmade greenhouse gases is the least of our worries at this time .

Thanks, Great Read
[para 6, last line, the word later s/b layer]
========
Melting ice caps may trigger more volcanic eruptions

10:38 03 April 2008 by Catherine Brahic
source
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn13583-melting-ice-caps-may-trigger-more-volcanic-eruptions.html
Vatnajökull is the largest ice cap in Iceland, and is disappearing at a rate of 5 cubic kilometres per year.
Carolina Pagli of the University of Leeds, UK, and Freysteinn Sigmundsson of the University of Iceland have calculated the effects of the melting on the crust and magma underneath.
They say that, as the ice disappears, it relieves the pressure exerted on the rocks deep under the ice sheet, increasing the rate at which it melts into magma. An average of 1.4 cubic kilometres has been produced every century since 1890, a 10% increase on the background rate.
…
But the thinning ice has another effect on volcanoes which will be more widespread.
As the amount of weight on the crust changes, geological stresses inside the crust will also change, increasing the likelihood of eruptions. “Under the ice’s weight, the crust bends and as you melt the ice the crust will bounce up again,” explains Bill McGuire of University College London in the UK, who was not involved in the study.
=========
“In short, the loss of all ice in Iceland would make the volcanoes less destructive.”
Did you mean destructive or less active?
Note: wouldn’t a gradual change in the ice cap introduce increased seismic reads if the weight is having a meaningful impact on geologic stress?

Ian L. McQueen (10:39:47) :
There are several different types of magma, but Hawaiian and Icelandic volcanoes are both basalts. Hawaiian volcanoes do not normally generate a lot of ash.
The most explosive volcanoes (like Mt. St. Helens) are andesite volcanoes with magma that is more viscous than basalt.

@Steve Goddard,
The ice-skating question has been an interesting area of popular physics research over the last century or more. Michael Faraday, Lord Kelvin, and J. Willard Gibbs, three of the biggest names in the history of Physics, were actively involved with this question, and experimentally proved the “pressure-melt” hypothesis wrong. Modern research has confirmed Faraday’s hypothesis of a liquid “pre-melt” layer on top of the ice, which is what permits skating (and skiing, for that matter) down to about -30 C. There are MRI images, X-ray diffraction patterns, and AFM (Atomic Force Microscopy) images that absolutely confirm this hypothesis.
Sorry about the use of the term myth, but what do you call something that’s taught in textbooks as truth, but is clearly either extremely oversimplified, or just outright wrong? There has been clear, compelling research (with actual data and methodology published, see above) showing that it’s NOT pressure melt that causes a water film to form under ice skates allowing ice skating to occur. Rosenberg’s article is the definitive summary on this, and the incontrovertible, factual evidence is that the maximum pressure generated by skates on ice is about 470 atm, enough to depress freezing point by ony about 3.5C, which would make skating impossible below that temperatures without the liquid “pre-melt” layer on top of the ice. The pre-melt layer is what makes it so slippery walking on ice with leather-soled dress shoes (check NHL coaches), too, and allows the puck to slide.
I’m not trying to be obnoxious or belligerent here. You stumbled on a field I happen to know very well from my own research and teaching. I was just trying to set you straight. I’ve heard it said that no good deed goes unpunished and I may be experiencing just that…
Your analogy has nothing really to do with your main point, which is excellent. Holding on to an analogy that is clearly false only hurts your credibility, something I would rather not see happen, since I agree with your position on the glaciers and volcanos.
Please read the Rosenberg article and just change the analogy. I would have sent both replies by email had I known how. I hope the public exchange hasn’t hardened you into an unreasonable defense of your position.
Sincerely and respectfully.

Its getting more ridiculous!
Just caught a report on CTV (Canadian) in which the reporter explained that this volcano will keep erupting until the ice around it melts!!!
Seems this intrepid reporter has discovered a previously unknown cause and effect relationship that is bound to have profound implications.
By 2050 or 2030 or 2100 or whenever, when the world is 7 or 2 or 12 degrees warmer and all the ice is gone and Manhattan is a marine park, we won’t have to worry about volcanoes.
LOL.

Don’t know about the ice skate thing. I always had four pairs. two pairs of speed skates, (width about 1.5mm & flat ground with a whetstone), one pair hockey skates hand ground to be almost knife edged for extreme stuff, (Never slipped sideways unless I leant over so much the boot lifted the blade off the ice, groove almost half width of blade), & one pair hockey skates shallow ground for more general use.
The deep ground blades were the slowest although that may in part be due to heavy ‘rocker’ grind where the lengthwise profile was like a rocking chair rocker.. I’m inclined to think the popular explanation is incorrect.
DaveE.

After reading all of the theories (er, hypotheses) expressed above about why ice skates work, I tried my own experiment using an ice cube taken from the tray under the ice-maker in my refrigerator. (They no longer look like cubes, but that’s immaterial — lets call it an ice polygon, or I-P for short.) So I laid my I-P on its side atop a multi-folded-up paper towel to insulate it from the Formica counter-top and applied the back side of a stainless-steel dinner knife pressing down as hard as I could.
In less than a minute, the back of the blade had formed a deep groove in my I-P, and I thought maybe the ice-skaters had it right — all it took was some heavy pressure on a thin blade. But then I thought I should not have used a knife at room temperature and should repeat the experiment after cold-soaking my knife in the ice-maker tray.
About an hour later, I retrieved the knife but it was too cold to hold and I had to wrap it in several layers of paper toweling before I could press the back of the blade once again on a new frigid piece of I-P. But this time, pressing as hard as I could, there was no groove formed under the back of the blade. So I turned the knife over and applied pressure using the sharp blade. Still hardly a groove could be formed!
From results of this experiment I concluded that ice-skating works better if the blade is slightly warmer than the ice, and I presume it will be so as the skater’s blades travel through the ambient air following each stroke. It is also possible that AGW would benefit this process, but so would GW that is non-A.

Just The Facts (21:15:14) :
“Looking at the picture of the venting volcano above it seems clear that volcanic activity is a driver of climate change that we must take very seriously. While we don’t know when, it is just a matter of time before a very large volcanic eruption, or possibly a cluster of big ones, causes an episode of rapid cooling like the year without summer:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer
We are very unprepared for this type scenario. Shouldn’t we be diverting some of our limited resources, including some of our good climate scientists, over to researching and preparing for an inevitable rapid catastrophic volcanic cooling episode? Solar panels aren’t going to be much help when millions of people are starving to death due to crop failures…
REPLY
“They” already have that covered. /Sarc
Beginning in 1973, policy changes promoted by Nixon Secretary of Agriculture Earl Butz deregulated the corn market. He dismantled supply management policies, selling off government storage bins used as food security reserves…. Butz and agribusiness giant, Cargill, along with the Farm Bureau argued that farm prices crashing would be a positive because they would be remedied by more exports and new uses such as ethanol and corn sweeteners. The 1996 Freedom to Farm Act [written by Cargill VP Dan Amstutz] represented the culmination of this “free market” ideology by calling for the elimination, over 7 years, of all price floors and grain reserves.” http://www.nffc.net/Learn/Fact%20Sheets/King%20Corn%20Fact%20Sheet.pdf
Here are the results
“In summary, we have record low grain inventories globally as we move into a new crop year. We have demand growing strongly. Which means that going forward even small crop failures are going to drive grain prices to record levels. As an investor, we continue to find these long term trends..very attractive.” Food shortfalls predicted: 2008
“Recently there have been increased calls for the development of a U.S. or international grain reserve to provide priority access to food supplies for Humanitarian needs. The National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) and the North American Export Grain Association (NAEGA) strongly advise against this concept”
July 22, 2008 letter to President Bush
Riots from Haiti to Bangladesh to Egypt over the soaring costs of basic foods have brought the issue to a boiling point and catapulted it to the forefront of the world’s attention, …
“The finance ministers were in shock, almost in panic this weekend,” he said on CNN’s “American Morning,” in a reference to top economic officials who gathered in Washington. “There are riots all over the world in the poor countries … ” April 14, 2008 – Riots, instability spread as food prices skyrocket
“May 1, 2008 … Today, says USDA Undersecretary Mark Keenum, “Our cupboard is bare.” U.S. government food surpluses have evaporated….. “
Surplus U.S. food supplies dry up – USA TODAY
Ten corporations are busy consolidation a strangle hold on the world food supply. The bogus “Food Safety Bills” here in the USA were supposed to finish wiping out independent farming in the USA. One bill would even “regulate” home veggie gardens!
If you want the real story behind the how the CED deliberately has been wiping out independent farmers in the USA and exporting the techniques to other countries check out
History, HACCP and the Food Safety Con Job It is very well researched.

RE: Espen (15:30:48) : “… we should stop the crazy projects to turn food into fuel,”
If we ever have a major killing famine develop, such as might be caused by a major eruption of the Yellowstone Supervolcano, I think we could very well be forced into a desperate crash program to turn fuel [coal] into food.

Hello…..?
Doesn’t this ‘story’ then serve as yet another example of NEGATIVE FEEDBACK that the IPCC et al failed to account for in their models?

Kum Dollison (17:55:49) :
As of a couple of weeks, ago, we had over 7 Billion Bushels of Field Corn in Storage. Corn was selling for $3.50/bu, or just a touch over $0.06/lb.
None of the food situations around the world in 2008 could, even remotely, be connected to Field Corn grown in the U.S.
Shame on you, Gail.
REPLY:
I did not want to get into the LONG explanation but here goes.
These are the key points:
July 26, 2002: Report Finds Fundamental Flaws in WTO’s Agreement on Agriculture: “Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy report argues that the Agreement on Agriculture fails to account for agri-business’ monopoly over global agricultural trade.” http://www.socialfunds.com/news/article.cgi/891.html
2002 Effect of policies on farmers in USA and Mexico: Between 1995 and 2000, the prices US farmers receive for corn declined 33 percent, 42 percent for wheat, and 34 percent for soybeans. No wonder that since NAFTA went into effect 33,000 small farmers in the US have gone out of business— more than six times the pre-NAFTA rate. In Mexico, the price farmers receive for corn has plummeted 45 percent At least 1.5 million farmers have left their land. 900,000 people leave Mexico’s land every year, a U.N. program says. According to a study by Jose Romero and Alicia Puyana carried out for the federal government of Mexico, between 1992 and 2002, the number of agricultural households fell an astounding 75% – from 2.3 million to 575, 000 http://www.globalexchange.org/campaigns/ftaa/topten.html
INDIA:
Farmer suicides in India: Now the full toll—surely among the largest sustained waves of suicides in human history—is becoming apparent. And as Sainath emphasizes, these numbers still underestimate the disaster, since women farmers are excluded from the official statistics… It is important that the figure of 150,000 farm suicides is a bottom line estimate…. “Overall,” says Professor Nagaraj, “there exists since the mid-90s, an acute agrarian crisis. That’s across the country. In the Big Four and some other states, specific factors compound the problem…. Cultivation costs have shot up in these high input zones, with some inputs seeing cost hikes of several hundred per cent… Meanwhile, prices have crashed, as in the case of cotton, due to massive U.S.-EU subsidies to their growers. All due to price rigging with the tightening grip of large corporations over the trade in agricultural commodities.” http://alternatives-international.net/article1394.html
http://www.counterpunch.org/sainath02122009.html
1986 Global commodity prices slumped in the mid eighties, triggering a five fold increase in farm subsidies in the USA and the EU subsidy to double. Pressure from commodity exporters inspired a decision to pursue Agricultural Policy reform at Uruguay round of GATT. It was lead by Under Secretary of Agriculture Dan Amstutz. http://books.google.com/books?id=0VyUe1kMc2wC&pg=PA68&lpg=PA68&dq=Daniel+Amstutz+Undersecretary+of+Agriculture,+1986&source=bl&ots=g_NvagIp9r&sig=iNU3jWVgC7LkAjkzuSQt6LyINfI&hl=en&ei=XF-gSavhGY-EtgeXjZz_DA&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=2&ct=result#PPA68,M1
Launched in 1986, the General Agreement on Tariffs & Trade (GATT) Uruguay Round of international trade talks has been dominated by a confrontation between the US and the EC over farm policy reform. Both sides proclaim their commitment to devising a GATT regime which will bring an end to the anarchy in world agricultural markets, yet neither is willing to address the underlying cause of the present malaise: structural over-production in their own farm sectors and the resulting accumulation of surpluses. The use of export subsidies to put these surpluses on to world markets caused developing countries severe trade and food security problems in the 1980s; and a Uruguay Round deal is unlikely to bring any relief. What it will do, however, is introduce new regulations which, enshrined in international trade law, will restrict the right of developing countries to manage their own food systems. Most importantly, the use of trade measures to control food imports and price support measures to promote staple food production could be severely constrained, or banned, by a ‘farm superpower’ GATT agreement. http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~content=a769339885~db=all
Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) introduction of intellectual property rules on plants, animals and seeds under WTO’s Agreement “could damage the livelihoods of these 1.4 billion farmers worldwide and undermine food sovereignty and food security ” Joint Communication from the African Group to the Council for Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (2003) http://www.fao.org/docrep/007/y5714e/y5714e07.htm
U.S. Corn Trade
The United States is the world’s largest producer and exporter of corn. Corn grain exports represent a significant source of demand for U.S. producers and make the largest net contribution to the U.S. agricultural trade balance of all the agricultural commodities, indicating the importance of corn exports to the U.S. economy. On average, corn grain (excluding popcorn or sweet corn) accounted for approximately 11 percent of all U.S. agricultural exports by value during the 1990s. In 2008, due to record exports of corn and other feed grains, that share grew to over 12 percent of the U.S agricultural export value. http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/corn/trade.htm
The manipulation of corn and grain by the grain traders has forced independent farmers out of business here in the USA and in other countries.Thanks to tax payer dollars Cargill et al buy US corn at under the cost of production in the USA and Europe and sell at a lower price in other countries. This has forced farmers out of business. When there is a short fall like in 2008 their are no local independents to meet the demand. Both Cargill and Monsanto posted record high earning in 2008.
If you can make the statement you made I strongly suggest you find out what is happening to your food supply. As I stated above Nicole Johnson wrote a very well researched article (referances are about 1/2 the article) at http://www.opednews.com/articles/History-HACCP-and-the-Foo-by-Nicole-Johnson-090906-229.html
The food safety bills originated in the January 2005: Guide to good farming practices: This draft guide to good farming practices for animal production food safety was taken from the Report of the Meeting of the OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Standards Commission (Paris, 17-28 January 2005) http://www.oie.int/boutique/extrait/25berlingueri823836_0.pdf?PHPSESSID=64969a28688594daf57a7263f42fb1ce
The first try to make it law in the USA was the 2005 Bill: Safe and Secure Food Act http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtext.xpd?bill=s109-1534
I have thirteen pages of similar references on the take over of the World Food supply if the above do not convince you.
How about June 2006 – The Global Diversity Treaty: Standard Material Transfer Agreement (SMTA) a standardized contract that will enable much easier access to crop diversity. [ germplasm for patenting] royalty payment (1.1% of sales) is paid only if product is unavailable for further breeding and research. funds will be devoted to conservation efforts. Translation: Bio-techs Corporations steal seed from third world farmers, patents it and pay money to Bioversity International http://www.bioversityinternational.org/publications/pdf/1144.pdf
Followed by April 2007 – Monsanto, Cargill and Maseca-ADM sign agreements to establish regional seed banks in the center and south of Mexico. http://www.counterpunch.org/ross11212007.html

Piers Corbyn (20:22:50) :
I’ll be keeping an eye on your volcano forecasts, but I am extremely skeptical ……

If you have something that has been strained almost to its breaking point, it seems to make sense that any sudden small stress increase may cross the line and trigger a cascading fracture. I note that many earthquakes seem to occur when the sun and the moon are in-line — full moon or dark of the moon. That is when earth is seeing its highest tidal stresses for any given two-week period.
When Mt. St. Helens was acting up I recall noticing that many of these eruptions seemed to occur just after an indicated high tide on the Puget Sound daily tide calendar.

Can someone tell me, just an estimate please, how much of these greenhouse gases are being emitted from the volcano over the last couple of weeks compared to how many vehicles it would take to emit the amount that has been emitted over the last few weeks.
This comparison is crucial in understanding human impact on global warming versus natural causes.

Thanks Steve that’s very useful. I was the one that posted elsewhere about the idea of pressure release. The idea is way older than Scientific American lets on. Funny how warmists never go in for accurate references in these cases. My assumption was that the melt produced increased water that reacted the magma to increase the probability of an explosive release. I see you’ve dealt with that too in the next volcanism post.
Nice to know I hadn’t missed a post.

After a bit more research into the interesting geologic structures (Bookshelf and near vertical faulting) that occur in Iceland and the massive rift zone systems, glacial pressure appears to be a reasonable factor. Clearly, the events are driven by magma supply but…
Geology and geodynamics of Iceland
R.G. Trønnes, Nordic volcanological Institute, University of Iceland
source: http://www2.norvol.hi.is/Apps/WebObjects/HI.woa/1/swdocument/1006551/Introduction+to+Geology+and+geodynamics+of+Iceland+-+Reidar+Tršnnes.pdf
page 13:
Glacio-isostatic modulation of volcanism
The low viscosity of the high-temperature upper mantle and lower crust makes the pressure release melting very sensitive to rapid glacial unloading and rebound. The link between deglaciation and increased volcanic productivity has been noted in many different parts of Iceland: the Reykjanes Peninsula (Jakobsson et al. 1978), the Vei•ivötn fissure swarm in the ERZ (Vilmundardóttir and Larsen, 1986), the Askja (Sigvaldason et al, 1992) and •eistareykir (Slater et al. 1998) volcanic systems of the NRZ and the Snæfellsjökull system (Hardarson and Fitton, 1991). The unloading effect leads to nearly 100 times higher volcanic productivity than that of recent times (< 5 ka BP) and during glacial periods (Maclennan et al. J. Geophys Res., submitted).
The magmas erupted during the periods of maximum productivity in the glacial rebound stages are the most primitive magmas recorded in Iceland. Almost all of the accessible picritic eruption units and most of the large monogenetic shield volcanoes of primitive olivine tholeiitic composition are of early post-glacial age. These relationships demonstrate that the crustal magma plumbing system has inadequate capacity for melt processing during periods of large magma supply from the mantle.

Jim, pure bull fecal matter causes global warming. The potential increase in geological activity on the other hand will be “climate change”. There are theories that the intensity, and lack thereof, of solar cycles has an impact on Earth’s geological activity. These theories seem at least as credible to me as AGW climate models.

The greater compression effect is on Antarctica—as ice flows with the loss of lateral support from disintegrating ice shelves, the pressure reduction will eventually allow the pent up energy to explode. melt water will cause sea levels to rise dramatically in a few weeks at most. There is reason to hypothesize that earlier explosions in Iceland in ancient times may be the basis for the accounts in Plato. Hence “ancient” not prehistoric. Ask Noah This has nothing to do with manmade CO2. It is a periodic coinciding cycles–peaking now. Lst time was 720,000 years ago –a 2 cusp cycle–this length interglacial only every 720,000 years. The compression and subglacial expansion can be measured by space-based topo measurement. The weights and pressures can be estimated and the blowup roughly predicted.