Israeli study shows variable sea level in past 2500 years

Surprise, surprise!
Earth’s climate has changed in the past, is changing now, and it will change in the future – quite independently of CO2.
With kind regards,
Oliver K. Manuel
Emeritus Professor of
Nuclear & Space Sciences
Former NASA PI for Apollo

Speaking of Israeli research. Here is another one fromt he Weizman Institute:
We have just received an exciting press release from the Institute entitled “Cooling Forests can Heat Too”.
In the attached article, Professor Dan Yakir and colleagues have demonstrated that, contrary to our simplistic notion that “more trees equals less CO2 and global warming”
the opposite might actually be true; particularly in certain regions. They have shown that heat generated by this biomass may counteract the benefit of CO2 reduction,
at least in the immediate term. This is an important demonstration of how basic research enables us to better define solutions for global issues.
This research discovery was made in the semi-arid Yatir Forest, a pine forest at the edge of the Negev Desert, where Weizmann scientists have been operating a research
station for the past ten years.

“Seeing as Israel is not close to former ice caps and the tectonic activity along the Mediterranean coast is negligible over these periods, it can be concluded that drastic changes in Israel’s sea levels are mainly related to changes in the volume of water.”
Given that the entire Mediterranean sea has dried up completely at least twice and perhaps event three times in the past the as the Strait of Gibraltar opened and closed, that comment about the “negligible” “tectonic activity” could be a bit of confirmation bias. These drying periods have been proven by drilling and retrieving core samples, including thick salt pan layers, from under the deepest parts of Mediterranean Sea.
The flow of water from the Atlantic Ocean into the Mediterranean Sea is hundreds, if not thousands of times greater then the flow of Niagara Falls. It would not take a massive change in the Strait of Gibraltar to restrict the flow into the Mediterranean to allow the level to drop through evaporation.

Breaking News
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/feb/04/climate-change-email-hacking-leaks

One piece of information that led police to question Dennis was the discovery of emails between him and Stephen McIntyre, who runs a sceptic blog in Toronto called Climate Audit. Climate Audit was the first to receive an anonymous link to the leaked data. Dennis subsequently emailed McIntyre to alert him to a Norwich University message confirming that a leak had occurred.
The scientist also had contact with Patrick Condon, an aeronautical engineer in Morris, Illinois, who runs a similar maths-oriented sceptic blog called Air Vent, and criticises “leftists” who promote global warming theories.
A third blogger with whom Dennis has posted is Anthony Watts, a weatherman for a California radio station who is involved in a sometimes vituperative sceptic blog called Watts Up with That. He has had a book published by the Heartland Institute, a denialist organisation which until 2006, received funding from ExxonMobil.
All three American bloggers, McIntyre, Condon and Watts, were initially sent links to the cache of CRU leaked material, via anonymous servers, on the same day, Tuesday 17 November.
McIntyre then received a message from Dennis in Norwich. According to files obtained by police, he wrote: “Hi Steve, Yesterday we received the following email, sent to all staff in environmental sciences and the climatic research unit. I have no idea what stuff was collected or where it was posted, but interesting nonetheless!”…
Hmmm, interesting… love this story.

it can be concluded that drastic changes in Israel’s sea levels are mainly related to changes in the volume of water.
This is a bit ambiguous. Why does the volume of water in the Mediterranean vary. That it does is not an explanation. Precipitation in the source regions and subsequent runoff to the Sea might help explain the volume therein – along with evaporation from the surface. Someone must have published on this topic. Maybe the full report of Sivan & Toker includes relevant information on why the volume changes or perhaps a call for additional funding to study precipitation in Switzerland and the Central African mountains. I’ll go along for standard daily rates.

John F. Hultquist (22:45:42) :
The inflow from all the rivers into the Mediterranean is insignificant compared to the inflow from the Atlantic. If the straight of Gibraltar was to stay open and all of the rivers dried up, the level would remain the same. The level of the Mediterranean is driven by Atlantic inflow and evaporation, the feeding rivers are not necessary.

Fresh piece from The Guardian:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/feb/05/climate-change-hacked-emails

IPCC:
“Senior officials running UN-led talks in India have insisted climate change science remains very persuasive despite the emergence of recent serious errors.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8499702.stm
Chinese not so sure: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2010-02/03/content_9418037.htm
incontrovertible>deep and extensive>robust>very persuasive>________?

vi·tu·per·a·tive (v-tpr–tv, -ty-, -p-r-, v-)
adj.
Using, containing, or marked by harshly abusive censure.
——————————————————————————–

Interesting stuff.
I’d imagine that those with a substantial incentive to ignore this (e.g. The ‘small island states’ who are due to receive billions in foreign aid) will systematically ignore this or claim bias.
There seems to be a wilfull desire to pretend that the climatic changes of the past (sea-level, MWP, etc) don’t really count or somehow didn’t happen, forgetting that our ‘past’ was their present-day.

Andrew30 (23:06:15) :
The inflow from all the rivers into the Mediterranean is insignificant compared to the inflow from the Atlantic. If the straight of Gibraltar was to stay open and all of the rivers dried up, the level would remain the same. The level of the Mediterranean is driven by Atlantic inflow and evaporation, the feeding rivers are not necessary.
Given that there’s 20 odd miles between the Pillars of Hercules this make sense. It reminds me of something my grandfather told me – he was stationed in North Africa during WW2, and had heard a story that Hitler had a long term plan to drain the Mediterranean by daming the Strait of Gibralter. Have no idea if it was true, or if it could be done. (But don’t think the elites in Monaco would be very pleased if the plan was resurrected). The haves and have yachts.

I think to rule out tectonics as a cause for sea level change in this region is a mistake. The area sits close to plate margins and there are many earthquakes in the Eastern Med as a result.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/israel/seismicity.php

Simon Jenkins
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 4 February 2010 21.00 GMT

Scientists, you are fallible. Get off the pedestal and join the common herd
Climatologists above all need to rediscover the virtue of self-criticism – or others will continue to question their evidence

and the comments are good as well, no surprise there since the comments are “open”, so no flaming censorship, strange how that works

Sea Levels at Harlech Castle in North Wales construction completed Circa 1290
http://www.castlewales.com/harlech.html
The castle’s other remarkable feature is the defended “Way from the sea,” a gated and fortified stairway plunging almost 200 ft down to the foot of the castle rock. Once, this gave access to supplies from the sea, but the tide level has since receded, leaving Harlech somewhat isolated upon its rock. During Madog ap Llywelyn’s uprising of 1294-95, this maritime lifeline proved the savior of the garrison, which was supplied and victualled by ships from Ireland.

Does anyone know whether this was a localized event, or is it confirmed in other places? Without confirmation, I am not ready to extrapolate this to the entire globe, since Israel is on the far side of the Mediterranean, far from the relatively narrow connection with the Atlantic.

Regarding sea level, here is the latest error in IPCC AR4:
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch12s12-2-3.html
States “The Netherlands is an example of a country highly susceptible to both sea-level rise and river flooding because 55% of its territory is below sea level where 60% of its population lives and 65% of its Gross National Product (GNP) is produced.”
The real figure for Netherlands territory below sea level is 26%, so AR4 has it more than double. AR4 is looking like a joke a minute!

During the Roman era the level was almost similar to today’s,
Roman warm period, water expands when warmed maybe, but there probably was no Roman warm period when the Mannian method is used.

John Silver (01:14:53) :
A friendly correction: The sea ice extent is referencing floating ice. The water level will not change if floating ice melts nor will the level change if the water becomes frozen.
The water’s displacement is already accounted for, liquid or solid. Kind of anti-intuitive.

That the mediteranean sea rises and falls dramatically over time, unconnected to CO2 levels, is without doubt.
Witness, for instance, Alexandria. 1600 years ago, under the water. Cars didn’t cause that.
http://www.underwaterdiscovery.org/Sitemap/Project/Alexandria/Default.aspx
Other cities in the Med. Sea that were built on dry land, and then sunk completely. No doubt that there are hundreds more.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/june01/2001-06-28-sunken-cities.htm

@SteveE
Thanks for your comment please could you explain glacial rebound?

“Sea Levels at Harlech Castle In North Wales:- “The castle’s other remarkable feature is the defended “Way from the sea,” a gated and fortified stairway plunging almost 200 ft down to the foot of the castle rock. Once, this gave access to supplies from the sea, but the tide level has since receded… The castle was constructed Circa 1290 what does this demonstrate?” – Stacey
Probably that there has been a lot of coastal sedimentation since 1290. It’s not so much that the sea level has lowered as that the coastline has moved outward.

I don’t think Anthony is ever vituperative although some of our comments may be. I thought that was a mean description when compared to say, Monbiot or Delingpole!
And although I am no geographer I always thought that the Med was quite isolated from the Atlantic by the straits of Gibraltar – the tides in the Med are very, very slight, only a few measly feet – is that related?

SteveE (04:34:53) :
Where did you get that 26% from? The national geographic put it at half:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2001/08/0829_wiredutch.html
Wikipedia puts it at 20% althought the reference is to a Dutch document so I can’t tell if it’s correct.
To quibble, that is not from “National Geographic” but is actually a Christian Science Monitor piece.
From AFP:

According to the Dutch authorities, only 26 percent of the country is below sea level, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will be asked to account for its figures, environment ministry spokesman Trimo Vallaart told AFP.
(…)
IPCC experts calculated that 55 percent of the Netherlands was below sea level by adding the area below sea level — 26 percent — to the area threatened by river flooding — 29 percent — Vallaart said.
“They should have been clearer,” Vallaart said, adding that the Dutch office for environmental planning, an IPCC partner, had exact figures.

One would expect the Dutch authorities to know their own country better than “National Geographic,” the IPCC, or even the supremely authoritative Wikipedia. But then again, one would expect “IPCC experts” to be able to do proper math as well.

About those charts of the Netherlands, the flooded area would be around 26-27% but its based on NAP (Normaal Amsterdams Peil) wich on itself is not correct because that is based on the high tides in the former Zuyderzee, wich is now the “IJsselmeer” east of Amsterdam, the high tides there where higher than those along the coast of the Netherlands.
I doubt that IPCC has checked if those figures are based on the real sealevels or on the NAP, anyway a figure of 50% completely out of range.
Another thing, sealevel rise, i live close to Hoek of Holland where the sealevel has risen 19 cm between 1888 and 1995, an average of just 1,7 mm a year. Up north in the town of Harlingen (where i was born) its just 13 cm over the same period, an average rise of 1.21 mm a year.

“kwik (22:49:06) :
[…]
Or it will be called MaldiveGate…..;
http://www.climatechangefacts.info/ClimateChangeDocuments/NilsAxelMornerinterview.pdf
”
This very elegant argument by Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner was completely unknown to me, stunningly elegant, about sea level rise:
“There’s another way of
checking it, because if the radius of the Earth increases, because
sea level is rising, then immediately the Earth’s rate of
rotation would slow down. That is a physical law, right? You
have it in figure-skating: when they rotate very fast, the arms
are close to the body; and then when they increase the radius,
by putting out their arms, they stop by themselves. So
you can look at the rotation and the same comes up: Yes, it
might be 1.1 mm per year, but absolutely not more.”
Fantastic.

It seems to me reading the press release and many of the comments following that what we are looking at is a combination of several things. At the end of the last major glaciation when the ice sheets withdrew from the middle latitudes to the high latitudes the sea level rose due to run off from the melting ice on land. It appears that we are still seeing rising sea levels due to rising earth mass due to decompression with the loss of ice weight on the land mass. If the land mass rises the area of the dry land increases and this would force the sea into a smaller surface area which would cause a rise in sea levels where the land mass isn’t rising. Water doesn’t compress so it has to go somewhere so it rises. Perhaps this would explain some of the variability noted in the article over the past several thousand years. cooler periods the level drops warmer periods it rises. The amounts we are speaking of in recent recorded history are not unusual when put in perspective to the events before recorded history in the geological past. With the capabilities we have now we should be able to cope with any changes coming down the pike if our governments will focus on adaption rather than prevention. I am sure we can adapt. I am not so sure we can change or prevent climate variation.
Bill Derryberry

Stacey (05:40:05) :
Wikipedia has a nice article on it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-glacial_rebound
It’s a proccess where the land rises up after removing the weight of ice sheets from the last ice age. It’s effects can be seen over the Northern Europe and America.

Off topic but file under way too funny but Mann’s off the hook in fine politico fashion
RA-10 Inquiry Report: Concerning the Allegations of Research Misconduct
Against Dr. Michael E. Mann, Department of Meteorology,
College of Earth and Mineral Sciences,
The Pennsylvania State University:
Under The Pennsylvania State University’s policy, Research Administration Policy No. 10, (hereafter referred to as RA-10), Research Misconduct is defined as:
(1) fabrication, falsification, plagiarism or other practices that seriously deviate from accepted practices within the academic community for proposing, conducting, or reporting research or other scholarly activities;
(2) callous disregard for requirements that ensure the protection of researchers, human participants, or the public; or for ensuring the welfare of laboratory animals;
(3) failure to disclose significant financial and business interest as defined by Penn State Policy RA20, Individual Conflict of Interest;
(4) failure to comply with other applicable legal requirements governing research or other scholarly activities.
RA-10 further provides that “research misconduct does not include disputes regarding honest error or honest differences in interpretations or judgments of data, and is not intended to resolve bona fide scientific disagreement or debate.”
They might as well be lauding his having been cleared of practicing Wicca and also having passed the urine test for anabolic steroids. He’ll keep his gold medal in “flinging fiction” it seems.

Why would the size of the Strait of Gibraltar make any diff to the level of the Med?
I have 2 dams next to each other on my property connected via a small channel. If I narrowed the channel, all it would do is increase the speed of water flow. Unless I made it so narrow that the quantity of water transfer is exceeded by the amount I take out of the 2nd dam.
i.e In the case of the Med and Strait of Gib, the amount evaporating from the surface of the Med would have to exceed the amount flowing in (faster) from the Atlantic.
Somehow I don’t think Gibraltar is an issue here.

I recall a paper that was published some seven or eight years ago that mentioned the sea of Galilee was likely to have surface ice some 2000 years ago. The author hinted that the cold conditions then may have led to the story of Jesus walking on water. I contacted the author, mentioning that his study was consistent with the Holocene sea level work of Rhodes Fairbridge. He appreciated the confirmation, but lamented the nasty letters and emails he was getting (for obvious reasons).
Going further back during the Eeminan Interglacial, a paper published two years ago reported the first evidence of human culture at a cave at Es Skhul (near present day Haifa). Back then, the sea was only a few hundred meters from the mouth of the cave system. Now the sea shore is several kilometers away.
We have a lot of warming to go through before we get to the natural limits documented over time, particularly in that area.

Jeremy (21:56:33) :
Breaking News
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/feb/04/climate-change-email-hacking-leaks

From the article:

. . .The police have now moved on to a series of “very detailed” approaches to the overseas bloggers and members of their chat forums, asking if they had access to university passwords, and if they have any theories of their own.

Anybody been contacted?
/Mr Lynn

“Seeing as Israel is not close to former ice caps and the tectonic activity along the Mediterranean coast is negligible over these periods, it can be concluded that drastic changes in Israel’s sea levels are mainly related to changes in the volume of water”
I echo another poster on that one: to neglect the senestral movement over 2,500y along the 1,200km NS transform Dead Sea fault seems quite a rich proposal. Slip rate is 4.9mm/y +- 1.4 for the past 6 years, not negligible imo.
Read: 2008 Le Béon M., Y. Klinger, A. Amrat, A. Agnon, L. Dorbath, G. Baer, J-C. Ruegg, O. Charade and O. Mayyas (2008), Slip rate and locking depth from GPS profiles across the southern Dead Sea Transform, J. Geophys. Res., Vol. 113, B11403, doi:10.1029/2007JB005280

mikelorrey please read at least:
Clark, J.A., Farrell, W.E., Peltier, W.R., 1978. Global changes in
postglacial sea level: a numerical calculation. Quaternary Research
9, 265–287.

“… Seeing as Israel is not close to former ice caps and the tectonic activity along the Mediterranean coast is negligible over these periods, it can be concluded that drastic changes in Israel’s sea levels are mainly related to changes in the volume of water. …”
That statment is utter, unambiguous poppycock. The Jordan Valley is an active rift zone where Israel is being separated tectonically from western Asia. It is essentially an extension of the Red Sea Valley and the great rift zones of eastern Africa. The Mediterranean itself is over supplied with faults and volcanoes and the history of seismicity is one of the most intense on the planet.
Tectonism, in addition to faulting, causes buckling and long, very slow moving “waves” of structural movement that can raise and lower land surfaces over millenial, century-long and even decadal time spans. The USGS monitors “bulges” because of the potential that energy stored in such structures might release abruptly through faulting rather dissipate in plastic deformation. NO place with a notable history of seismicity can be considered to have “negligible” tectonic activity. Further, the word “negligible” begs questions as to what “significant” would mean in the same context. A single earthquake within the historic period elevated portions of the Sierra Nevada over 10 feet.

I am but a simple car mechanic but I know that Istanbul stands on at least 3 intersecting fault lines (I used to get Nat Geographic at one time) and have seen photos of the sunken modern buildings on the coast of Turkey (water level half way up the window frames of the ground floor. How can anyone determine what effect all the plate movement has on global sea levels? it seems to me to be vastly more complicated than the, so far unreachable, holy grail of accurate weather prediction! even if CO2 was a problem (and I am sure it aint) taxing the west into 3rd world poverty is the dumbest way of coping with the wholly unpredictable changes.

” Stacey (03:02:27) :
Sea Levels at Harlech Castle in North Wales construction completed Circa 1290″
Interesting, because if the tide level of England has “receded” considerably since 1290 leaving their dock high and dry, it’s the opposite of Israel where “the sea level during the Crusader period – just 800 years ago – was some 50-90 centimeters lower than the present sea level.”