From the “weather is not climate department” another report of ice further south than has been recently experienced. Here’s a picture from this China Daily news story:
From Maritime Global.net
CHINA PORTS FREAK WEATHER ALERT
By David Hughes
Published: Tue, 26 January 2010
Freak weather conditions and/or abnormal weather patterns have been reported in several parts of the world during recent months warns the American P&I Club. One of the latest examples is a significant build-up of sea ice in some major northern Chinese ports, the volume exceeding, it says, anything experienced in more than 30 years.
In an alert to its members, the club says the problem is centred around Bohai on the northern Yellow Sea coast, affecting ports such as Bayuquan and Dalian. At Bayuquan, patches of ice 500-600mm thick have formed in some places, while lesser patches have been seen in the immediate vicinity of the port.
Three icebreakers are working to avoid delays to ships, while the local Maritime Safety Authority is strictly supervising inbound and outbound vessel traffic.
Other northern ports ā such as Jingtang, Caofeidian and Xingang ā are said to be not so seriously affected. On January 17, the Chinese National Sea Weather Forecast Station reported that floating ice around Liaodong Gulf extended as far as some 60 nautical miles from shore, at Bohai Gulf around 22 miles, Northern Yellow Sea around 14 miles, and Laizhou Gulf around 33 miles.
However, with more cold weather fronts expected later, ice coverage around the Bohai coast could expand, according to the clubās correspondents in China, Huatai Agency & Consultant Services Ltd.
The club advises that vessels scheduled to call at northern ports, especially Bayuquan, should be ready for extreme temperatures and ensure Port State Control requirements are strictly followed to avoid unnecessary delay.
===============
Here’s another news story from AsiaOne News:
Bohai bay turns into block of ice
h/t to Ron De Haan (Note: please fix your email!!)
Change we can believe in!
Uh-oh, another “freak weather” incident…someone better get the WWF to update their reports.
Ya want the standard weather is not climate talking point?
Joe Bastardi predicted this in December. The Met Office predicted this in their fine tuned retrospective.
But, but, but less ice, more ice, hotter, colder is all part of global warming, I mean climate change, according to the WWF.
It’s obviously and outgrowth of global warming.
Since when does “more than 30 years” count as “freak”?
Just remember, climate change is causing this too. After all, Robert Gibbs said so:
(Responding to a question about record cold) “One only had to step outside of here, or visit where I used to work in Chicago to understand that climate change is, and the record temperatures that climate change is likely causing, is with us.”
http://climatequotes.com/politicians/robert-gibbs/
Cold or hot or average, it’s mankind’s fault.
Just saw this over at Jo Nova’s site. So, why do they laugh…
So where is there less Arctic sea ice than normal today?
The attached AMSR-E chart shows slightly less than normal extent for sea ice in recent years.
Quick – notify WaPo and MSNBC so they can report on this extreme weather event as further proof of global warming.
So hell is actually freezing over!
Bah-da-bump-crash!
Thanks, I’ll be here all week. Please tip your hostess.
http://www.bjreview.com.cn/quotes/txt/2010-01/27/content_242314.htm
That would place the last major occurrence of sea ice around 1970.
The Chinese will be pleased to know that, according to the UK Met Office, their freezing weather is all part of man-made global warming.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1246904/Water-vapour-responsible-slowdown-global-warming.html
“…Dave Britton from the Met Office said the study highlighted the complexity of climate science. ‘But it does not challenge the basic science that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases released from human activity are warming the planet,’ he said.
Dr Vicky Pope, head of climate science at the Met Office, said: ‘Whatever’s causing this change from decade to decade is having an influence at the surface. But it is a small variation on top of the long term increase in man-made greenhouse gases.'”
With no sunspots visible and sea ice building on the Northern Chinese cost, not seen in 30 years, I’d say it’s a cold Northern Hemisphere.
No sunspots — cold Northern Hemisphere.
Could there be a connection?
It’s a travesty. I’ll, hopefully be the first in this thread to add the catchphrase.
No No No. Can’t you read?
Arctic Sea Ice is at an almost record low for this time of year. This cannot be right. Only 2006 had less sea ice in the northern hemisphere at the end of January. Those pictures must be photoshoped. This is all a denialist conspiracy!
Don’t believe me;
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
(That is sarcasm for those with doubts.)
This terrible freak weather caused by global warming, there it is again. While this unpredictable heat accumulated in the last 50 years by the greenhouse gases lurks in some corner of the earth only to strike in midsummer again when we expect it least.
Yeah, but it’s all rotten ice so….
Alan S (13:42:36) :
“Itās a travesty. Iāll, hopefully be the first in this thread to add the catchphrase.”
But Alan, it was dirty robust ice!
Yup, another example of “odd-ball” cold weather caused by (ominous pause) GLOBAL WARMING-G-G-G! No doubt the Chinese were “thrown for a loop” because they were foolishly expecting their normal 60-degree (Fahrenheit) winter temperatures.
That reminds me of the song “Oh! Susanna” by the famous UEA climatologist Stephen Foster, which includes the lines
It rained all night the day I left, the weather it was dry
The sun so hot I froze to death; Susanna, don’t you cry.
Maybe the IPCC will re-release it under the title “Oh! Climate Chaos”. š
May i add: vicious, hideous, black, dark, strange heat. Yeah. Strange heat makes oceans freeze over. Strange heat. Sounds even better than dark heat. (No cosmological afterthoughts, Leif! Just kidding!)
Thirty years warm, thirty years cool.
Wasn’t that what Joseph told the Pharaoh?
(ahem)
Yes.
The whole freeken planet has odball (colder than normal) weather, and it’s because of “global warming”.
But, all the cold weather is just local variation.
Local to the planet earth, maybe?
How do we know this is not the start of an Ice Age. We know that we’ve had Ice Ages before and they would have started by freezing the sea around China before spreading down over much of the northern hemisphere. I keep hearing that we must apply the precautionary principle so could any climate scientist reading this explain how much anthropic warming we need to apply to our atmosphere to prevent the clear disaster that a new ice age would cause to our civilization and how we could achieve that?
But why is the sea ice extent curving down? A slight negative tick every once in awhile is expected, as is a slight upward tick. This time of year the general trend should be a generally upward sloping curve. But the recent data is forming a downward curve.
What areas are having significantly less arctic ice than normal?
Is this the same ice marked in red on the GISS temperature reports?
Don’t worry folks, the warming is in the pipeline. Just you wait and see. The cooling is temporary and is only masking the runaway warming that is already underway. Run for the hills, hide your children, shoot the deniers.
Even Chuck Norris can’t save us now.
— End of sarcastic rant —
It’s worse than we thought.
No, no. These are fairly large variations atop a very small secular change. They’ve got it exactly backwards.
“Mike86 (14:05:24) :
But why is the sea ice extent curving down?”
Yes, looks funny. But don’t forget the PDO only recently went negative so we are at the very start of the cool phase. I read the ocean heat content went up until about 2005 or so and stayed flat since:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/24/why-does-ocean-heat-content-diverge-from-giss-projections/#more-12076
This is only a harbinger of things to come. I expect it to start going down slowly now.
We are now where we were in 1981. Only in 1981 we went into the positive phase and now we enter the negative phase. So don’t expect sea ice to raise much this winter. The ocean is still relatively warm. It won’t stay this way IMHO.
Lets see, an ice patch 100 km wide and, ballpark guess … 1000 km long equals 100,000 km^2 of ice. I wonder if Cryosphere Today considers this in its calculation of “Northern Sea Ice” area?
kwik (12:57:16) :
Just saw this over at Jo Novaās site. So, why do they laughā¦
===============
gallows humor, quite a few are going to hang.
I get the sarcasm, but isn’t it interesting that in nearly every year, just at about this time, the growth in ice extent flattens or declines? Then it begins growing again, sometimes spectacularly. You’ll note that the temperatures north of 80 have increased markedly again over the past week, and so there has been the replacement of cold air at the surface with warm air from the south, and I wonder if the ice pack is compressed a bit by this surface flow?
Man … I can HARDLY wait ’til winter is over and CAGW can start in earnest again … it has been so friggen cold this year … (did I saw “I hate cold”?)
.
.
Freak weather conditions
abnormal weather patterns
and others…. always amuse me.
The conditions of the Holocene are not the normal climate for earth. The Holocene is ‘abnormal’ to climatic average and to a large extent in relation to our understanding of past interglacial periods the Holocene is ‘abnormal’.
Why do people ‘freak’ out over minor variations within the Holocene?
Television is the Ministry of Fear.
They sell abstract progressive concepts like the war on Terror, the War on Climate, and the War on Drugs. Fear of Terrorism is an intangible progressive concept. You can’t win a war against an intangible. Climate is so complex and changes so slowly, it can never be 100% understood, therefor it becomes an intangible abstract concept that can be exploited using fear as well. Drugs are inanimate objects. You may as well wage war against rocks, that would be just as useful.
The reason the Ministry of Fear exploits the stupidity of man, is for their owners monetary gain and their owners increase in Power and Control.
Utopia is not achievable. The founders of our country figured that out a long time ago. Human nature has never changed and never will. You will never get everyone on the planet to think the same, unless you get rid of everyone who thinks different, and event then human nature will take over in the end.
The Constitution of the US puts limits on the exploits of human nature. If only we would use it.
OT but I’m also worried about the coral. If it gets warm it bleaches and now this picture from the BBC if it gets cold it bleaches.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/08/sci_nat_enl_1264703202/html/1.stm
Is not the natural state of coral perhaps to be bleached?
Latitude:
Sorry, if I gave the wrong impression.
I’ve been dying to add the travesty comment fot while, but someone always beatd me to it š
Getting back to the story, BJT “Most ice for 40 years”, that gets us back to when Hansen et al were bleeting about the next ice age!
The bedwetters are trying, desperately, to claim all this cold weather is a sign of global warming FFS! They have created a huge credibility gap with their BS and they don’t have a clue what to do next.
And again: The next Ice Age is a result of Anthropogenic Global Warming, AGW!
E-mail fixed, thanks Anthony.
With more ice area, more people can now go ice-fishing.
As expected, more headlines from China due to coolness, but as far as I can hear, the CMA ( China Met Administration ) claims that it is a result of AGW, when some of my Meteorology friends in Hong Kong hear this, we simply laughed. ( notice that Hong Kong has its own Observatory, and HKO is not blatant enough to claim this )
Confucious says it’s getting cold along The Great Wall of China.
“Time to build another coal fired generating plant.”
I understand they do it everyday.
Ya, China is going to agree to CO2 reduction treaties…
And I got a bridge in Brooklyn…
PS: Many place in China had near normal temperature in this winter so far, with CMA’s Feb prediction of warmer-than-average, some warmist in China is already claiming that “Even such a strong AO negetivity is not able to bring China to a cooler-than-normal condition, surely a sign of AGW”
Hey, it’s still warm compared to say ABSOLUTE ZERO. And ice is just another state of water, which is just another state of steam. And we know what steam does, right? It cooks lobsters!
Don’t post but here is a neat little writeup that may be used when the numbers get published of the combined wind generator’s contribution (if any) during the European cold snap – it should be interesting:
http://www.inverness-courier.co.uk/news/fullstory.php/aid/11537/Where_were_renewable_energy_sources_during_cold_snap_.html
Ha, you folks have forgotten about the pipeline of heat. This ice will quickly be gone. Move along-nothing to see here.
Kate (13:23:34)
For an alternative view :
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=4992
I can’t work out why there are so many references to the Arctic sea ice coverage here. As far as I know the northern Chinese ports are some way south of the Arctic circle and any ice here won’t be included in arctic coverage – I suspect it won’t be included in global ice cover either.
For those puzzling about the extent of Arctic sea ice, don’t forget that the coverage depends on prevailing wing patterns as well as temperature – even the met office conceded that the record low a couple of years ago was due in large part to wind effects.
Finally, sea ice extent is so last decade – what really counts is thickness (we had a belly full of that first year, second year talk last year), but the charts don’t differentiate between 15% and 100% sea ice – it’s all ice to them. My suspicion is that it may not stretch so far, but it’s really top quality, joined up stuff that is going to be difficult for the wind to shift. And pretty resistant to next summer’s attempts to shift it too.
Correction para 2 – “prevailing wind patterns”
Just watch. The place will fill up with polar bears.
Kwik: I am sure his science advisor wrote the line. He is making Obama the laughing stock and should be fired.
Michael (14:48:56) :
That is, loosely, what the world actually means.
Trivia for the day…..
So to prove or disprove Global Warming what exactly disproves it?
Hot weather? Nope, that proves it.
Gales and Hurricanes? Nope they prove it.
Drought? Nope that proves it.
Rain and flood? Nope that proves it.
Freezing cold weather over an entire hemisphere? Nope that proves it.
Snowball Earth? Nope…
just read your greenpeace thread…came online late…but need to post an attack on Greenpeace by AGW-loving Fiona Harvey in the ‘prestigious’ UK Financial Times yesterday:
UK Financial Times: Green is the colour of climate discord
By Fiona Harvey
If the United Nations and the proponents of such a deal are serious in their stated aims, the best thing they could do would be to keep environmentalists out of the process.
Green campaigning groups played an exceptionally destructive role in the two weeks of the Copenhagen summit…
Copenhagen was always going to be a failure in the eyes of campaigning groups such as Greenpeace, Friends of the Earth and Oxfam..
Green groups also provided a smokescreen for China and other big developing countries to exert influence on smaller nations with which they have ties. Many developed country governments suspected China ā which in recent days has publicly cast doubt on the science of man-made global warming ā of urging some of these countries to reject compromises.
China is the worldās biggest emitter, and has an appalling record on air and water pollution. Yet in climate negotiations its sins go unmentioned, and it is praised to the skies by environmental groups for its meagre targets. Beijing has few better friends..
For a climate deal to be reached, each nation must agree to it in every detail. This is proving so difficult that some countries have argued for seeking a treaty among a smaller group such as the G20.
If the UN were stronger, it might be able to deal with the NGOs and stand up to the likes of China. But that would require an overhaul of the negotiating processes, which could take years. Every year without a climate treaty makes the goal of halting climate change harder to achieve…
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1b93687a-0c40-11df-8b81-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1
fiona, like most MSM, never points out that China has FOUR TIMES the population of the ‘biggest emitter’, the US, so calling the Chinese the ‘biggest emitter’ is incredibly dishonest.
fiona’s attack follows hot on the heels of a bizarre george monbiot attack on the UK Tele’s James Delingpole, which brings up Greenpeace! pity George didn’t contact the Tele or Delingpole to get the real story about the blog disappearing before he wrote his crazy piece though:
UK Tele: Delingpole Blog: Monbiot: an apology
So I quite understand why a man in as desperate a position as Georgeās has to grab what few crumbs of consolation he can. Thatāll be why heās got so terribly excited about a blog I wrote the other day ā and then spiked ā about an orchestrated campaign by a green pressure group to get sympathetic individuals in over 200 constituencies to send letters to their local Tory candidate testing him on his environmental correctness…
****And why did I pull it? (And it really was my decision, no one elseās. In fact I got a huge bollocking from my bosses for having done so because it is not Telegraph policy to pull blogs).
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100024152/monbiot-an-apology/
UK Guardian: George Monbiot: James Delingpole leads Telegraph into vicious climate over emailColumnist and climate change denier should be congratulated for his attempt to do even more damage to his purported cause
I think I have worked out where commentator James Delingpole is coming from. He pretends to be a climate change denier and enemy of environmentalists. In reality he’s a mole, paid by Greenpeace to inflict as much damage on the anti-green cause as possible. And he’s doing a marvellous job….
****After some 20 hours of this venom, the Telegraph took the post down…
Greenpeace is doubtless posting another fat cheque to him as I write. ..
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2010/jan/27/james-delingpole-climate-change-denial
pitiful that in australia – as no doubt elsewhere – the Greens are still pushing for an Emissions Trading Scheme to put a price on carbon.
I’m sorry, but you’ve just gotta love the realclimate commenters.
“794Richard Steckis: BPL is right in saying that AGW will probably cause billions of deaths. In fact, the human race could go EXTINCT. Nobody is ācatastrophisingā the issue. We have read some archaeology and some paleontology.
The #1 kill mechanism is famine. See āThe Long Summerā by Brian Fagan and āCollapseā by Jared Diamond.
7 degrees C is one more than the for-sure extinction point for Homo Sapiens as reported in a bunch of reports and books.
The book āSix Degreesā by Mark Lynas says: āIf the global warming is 6 degrees centigrade, we humans go extinct.ā See:
http://www.marklynas.org/2007/4/23/six-steps-to-hell-summary-of-six-degrees-as-published-in-the-guardian
Lynas lists several kill mechanisms, the most important being famine and methane fuel-air explosions. Other mechanisms include fire storms.
The following sources say H2S bubbling out of hot oceans is the final blow at 6 degrees C warming:
āUnder a Green Skyā by Peter D. Ward, Ph.D., 2007. ”
Priceless, just priceless.
Peter Plail (15:36:36) :
I thought the new ‘concern’ (read ‘alarm’) was the amazing amount of ‘1st’ and ‘2nd’ year ice! I mean, that’s the worrying thing. Who could have expected that (after two years of continued significant recovery)?
Oh, it’s just some of that Climate Oddball Warming.
Don’t have a COW.
Well we are looking at a very cold jan here in Christchurch n.z . Sofar air temps are down by 1.1c on norm.
> Peter Plail (15:38:16) :
>
> Correction para 2 ā āprevailing wind patternsā
Thanks for noting the ice thickness aspect, Peter. I also thought of the Arctic Sea Ice Extent when I saw this post, since I’d just been to the http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ page the day before and was dismayed by the graph there, considering the record cold.
Your point is interesting, and I think folks do need to remember that it doesn’t take 200mph winds to shift ice, only a prevailing wind pattern that remains steady. (Unless the ice is on a land mass, of course)
unpredictable, life threatening, enjoyable, sublime, controversial, life affirming: i.e. weather.
ya gotta love it.
“if it doesn’t kill you, it makes you stronger”
pat (15:57:30):
Not really.
China simply is the biggest CO2 emitter [not that there’s anything wrong with that].
But China doesn’t like the label, so they insist on a per capita accounting. With more people, each one emits less CO2 on average. [Of course, the rise in Chinese emitted CO2 is skyrocketing due to its construction of 2 – 4 new coal-fired power plants per week, and it won’t be long before China will have to move the goal posts, ie: find another argument.]
The problem with China’s current per capita argument is that we all have one atmosphere. If China as a country emits more CO2, then China has the biggest impact on our shared atmosphere. It is our one atmosphere that matters, not a per capita disclaimer.
The real problem is particulate pollution – soot. About one third of all airborne pollution on the U.S.-Canadian-Mexican west coast comes straight from China. That kind of pollution causes real health issues, unlike harmless and beneficial CO2.
Must be our fault…
I can’t stop laughing about this one.
Osama Bin Laden talking from the grave. OBL, an AGW alarmist. Now I have heard everything.
“”The effects of global warming have touched every continent. Drought and deserts are spreading, while from the other floods and hurricanes unseen before the previous decades have now become frequent,” bin Laden said in the audiotape, aired on the Arab TV network Al-Jazeera.
The terror leader noted Washington’s rejection of the Kyoto Protocol aimed at reducing greenhouse gases and painted the United States as in the thrall of major corporations that he said “are the true criminals against the global climate” and are to blame for the global economic crisis, driving “tens of millions into poverty and unemployment.”
Who uses audio tape anymore?
kwik (12:57:16) :
Thanks for the video of Obama during the SOTU.
When Biden and Pelosi smile in response to Obma’s acknowledgment of folks who disagree with AGW (and the murmering on the right side of aisle), I take it that they understand it, too, and AGW as a political priority has fallen off the radar screen.
It’s an inside joke — nobody believes in AGW — at least nobody politically important…
Just occurred to me: If CAGW/climate change/climate chaos led to all that ice in Chinese ports, wouldn’t it be “rotten” ice? Is it safe to take donkey carts on rotten ice? Do you even need an icebreaker to sail through rotten ice?
The dam is cracking
ĀÆĀÆĀÆĀÆĀÆĀÆĀÆĀÆĀÆĀÆĀÆĀÆĀÆĀÆĀÆĀÆĀÆĀÆĀÆĀÆ
āŗ[however, beware that the crazies are regrouping right now]
Now after Climate-gate, Glacier-gate and Hurricane-gate ā how many “gates” can one report contain? ā comes Amazon-gate. The IPCC claimed that up to 40% of the Amazonian forests were risk from global warming and would likely be replaced by “tropical savannas” if temperatures continued to rise.
This claim is backed up by a scientific-looking reference but on closer investigation turns out to be yet another non-peer reviewed piece of work from the WWF. Indeed the two authors are not even scientists or specialists on the Amazon: one is an Australian policy analyst, the other a freelance journalist for the Guardian and a green activist.
The WWF has yet to provide any scientific evidence that 40% of the Amazon is threatened by climate change ā as opposed to the relentless work of loggers and expansion of farms.
Every time I have questioned our politicians about global warming they have fallen back on the mantra that “2,500 scientists can’t be wrong”, referring to the vast numbers supposedly behind the IPCC consensus.
But it is now clear that the majority of those involved in the IPCC process are not scientists at all but politicians, bureaucrats, NGOs and green activists.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/dailypolitics/andrewneil/2010/01/the_dam_is_cracking.html
Sorry wrong thread but:-
From The Times January 30, 2010
Climate chief was told of false glacier claims before Copenhagen
The chairman of the leading climate change watchdog was informed that claims about melting Himalayan glaciers were false before the Copenhagen summit, The Times has learnt.
Smokey (16:19:46) :
Even if China would stop burning coal for power generation the country still is producing emissions because of the natural coal fires that burn according to historic reports 1000 AC over an area of 5000 km.
The amount of coal burning uncontrolled is about 12 % of the annual use of coal for industrial use which amounts to the annual use of coal by Germany.
China is not the only country that has to cope with extensive natural coal fires.
Indonesia, Australia, India, the USA and Russia are only a few of the countries mentioned in this publication:
http://www.eoearth.org/article/Coal_fires
30 years. Hmmmmm. why does that seem significant? oh yeah. That would be the modern weather bench mark.
More trivia: I read that More’s title was a bit of wordplay, since it sounds the same as “eutopia” (good place). He was implying that the good place is not to be found.
Michael (14:48:56) :
“… The reason the Ministry of Fear exploits the stupidity of man, is for their owners monetary gain and their owners increase in Power and Control.
Utopia is not achievable. The founders of our country figured that out a long time ago. Human nature has never changed and never will. You will never get everyone on the planet to think the same, unless you get rid of everyone who thinks different, and event then human nature will take over in the end.”
That’s the game that we’re playing, even when we’re not aware of it. CAGW, the various wars on concepts, and other constant distractions, are convenient replacements for the terrorizing of religion and fear of Hell/God/Sin. It’s a dismal state of affairs until you see how reason and altruism still survive to some extent (and WUWT is in the vanguard). Great post, thanks.
Not sure what you mean by this: “The Constitution of the US puts limits on the exploits of human nature. If only we would use it.”
Not only in China. Tonight on the news (BBC) there was a brief report about a ship trapped in ice in the Baltic Sea due to worse than usual ice conditions. In the UK, we are again having some snow albeit only very light. It has obviously been a cold winetr in the Northern Hemishere this year.
Odd. Overall arctic extent continued to not be remarkable…
Peter Miller (13:00:09) :
“So where is there less Arctic sea ice than normal today?
The attached AMSR-E chart shows slightly less than normal extent for sea ice in recent years.”
One thing to keep in mind with those charts is that they aren’t created from photographic evidence. They rely on sensors that some say aren’t properly calibrated to reflect reality (we just have to remember the SSMI failure of last winter), nor is the raw data straight off the sensor, nor is the software that processes them before transmission to earth a matter of public record.
“richard verney. (17:49:17) :
Not only in China. Tonight on the news (BBC) there was a brief report about a ship trapped in ice in the Baltic Sea due to worse than usual ice conditions. In the UK, we are again having some snow albeit only very light. It has obviously been a cold winetr in the Northern Hemishere this year.”
I heard about that too on radio here in Australia, but wasn’t carried by MSM news TV (No surprise there). There was a story of a dog being rescued from an ice floe in the Baltic by a ship called “Baltica”. They’ve named the dog “Baltic”.
The weather is not climate department sure is busy these days.
… and all this ice comes from the fact that there is now less water vapor in the atmosphere.
smokey,
sorry, but china has a right to consider per capita emissions. take a look at australia’s emissions for a population of a mere 22 million. and it is australia selling all the coal to china! the ships are piled up offshore waiting to send more coal, nearly a hundred are waiting to load right now.
u expect chinese people to forgo development?
Keep in mind that this must be the “rotten” artic ice which we were told about a few months ago. The rotten ice is simply not behaving. Bad ICE why is it that you are not melting like the IPCC told you to?
No doubt all the heat that Jim Hansen found in the artic is will soon melt the misbehaving ice.
What worries me, with the tempature records (and climate science) in such a shambles, is the possibility that the warming bias in the official records is actually masking significant cooling. Given a choice I would perfer slight warming. But, that is not what is happening in the real world. Computer models and bad science are leaving us poorly prepared for any real cooling.
MSBC picked up on the stranded ship. Of course all the ICE Breaker is too busy to help right away.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/35148252#35148252
Two of my favorite indicators of current cooling and warming are the ice extent graphs, and the UAH and RSS air temp measurements. However current events make me wonder if these measures may miss some things.
Those of you with more surviving brain cells than I have might be able to help me.
First of all, does sea ice extent include the coast of the Yellow Sea? How about Casco Bay in Maine? How about the Great Lakes?
When water turns to ice, the latent heat in the water is freed and joins the heat measured by thermometers in the air. Therefore, though it is in some ways counterintuitive, the more ice you see, the more heat is released.
Of course, this process would be reversed, in order to melt the ice in the spring. Heat from the air would be “used up,” becoming latent heat again, in the melt-water.
Has anyone figured out the math of these shifts of heat from “latent” to “actual,” and back to “latent?” (If not, why not?)
Does this effect the readings of the RSS and UAH satellites?
It does not matter if the ice forms at the poles or in the Yellow Sea; ice is ice, is it not? The math will be the same. Those of you with brain cells need to get to work on this. Meanwhile I’ll sit back and dream. Don’t worry; I’m patient.
Oh, by the way: It seems to me that the change in the AO relaxed the polar vortex in a manner which allowed cold and dense air to spill south, but in many cases that cold air was so dense it pressed flat and was largely found at 6000 feet and below. Does the RSS and UAH data adequately measure the lowest lower-troposphere? Or might such cold be “under their radar” and go unmeasured?
I’d figure out this stuff myself, but for my little business I had to work on IRS form 1099’s this week, to be done by the January 31 deadline, and all my available brain cells are currently in a depleted state. For my own health it is best that I sit back and let you fellows do all the work.
Will the gates open to carbon trading fraud?
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/we-might-be-better-off-without-a-trading-scheme-20100129-n41x.html
Yeah, BPL (Barton Paul Levenson) is a science fiction writer who has postulated that Venus was once populated, but the Venusian SUVs drove up CO2 so much that they had runaway global warming. He seems to frequently confuse reality with fantasy/science fiction.
At anyrate, he frequently points to Venus as the precautionary tale, ignoring such minor facts as atmospheric density and solar proximity that contribute to Venus’ high temperature.
The ice and snow will last for a few weeks to come!
Winter temperature forecast for the NH: cold on the increase until Feb. 14th
Central Asia: http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp11.html
East Asia: http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp5.html
USA: http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp2.html
Europe: http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html
@ Paddy (17:29:13) :
Probably that the Constitution limits the ability of the central government to interfere in our lives and pocketbooks. If we were following it, these carbon trading discussions would be taking place on the state level, where individuals are likely to have a little bit more influence than they do in Washington DC.
At least, that’s the way I see it.
“pat (18:43:17) :
smokey,
sorry, but china has a right to consider per capita emissions. take a look at australiaās emissions for a population of a mere 22 million. and it is australia selling all the coal to china! the ships are piled up offshore waiting to send more coal, nearly a hundred are waiting to load right now.
u expect chinese people to forgo development?”
Australia not only exports vast volumes of coal to China (And with KRudd747’s CPRS, Australian taxpayers would pay the Chinese to burn it) it also exports massive volumes of LNG too, at practically give-away prices, and will do for the next 20 odd years.
Every part of the left-wing agenda is a fraud. There is not one part that is true. They continue to invent new dragons to slay because the prior dragons are also frauds. There is nothing in the left-wing agenda except an agenda.
It’s “Big Oil”, paying the ice.
From the weather is(n’t) department of NOAA (a bit dated maybe)
Dozens of scientists from the NOAA contributed to a listing of global storms and climate events, which were notable for their atmospheric marvel and/or impact on human life.
NOAA’s top global climate events were, in date order:
Drought, India 1900
Drought, India 1907
Drought, China 1907
Drought,. Sahel, Africa, 1910-14
Typhoon, China, 1912
Drought, Soviet Union, 1921-22
Typhoon, China, 1922
Drought, China 1928-30
Flood, Yangtze River, China, 1931
Drought, China 1936
Drought,. Sahel, Africa, 1940-44
Drought, China 1941-42
Great Smog of London 1952
Europe storm surge, 1953
Great Iran flood, 1954
Typhoon Vera, Japan, 1958
Drought, India 1965-67
Cyclone, Bangladesh, 1970
Drought,. Sahel, Africa, 1970-85
North Vietnam flood, 1971
Blizzard, Iran 1972
El NiƱo, 1982-83
Cyclone, Bangladesh, 1991
Typhoon, Philippines, 1991
Hurricane Mitch, C. Americ., 1998
Concerning the Arctic ice: the low extent at the moment is largely due to the very stormy weather in the Barents Sea and the Kara Sea recently. There has been a large blocking High and extreme cold in northern Europe for a month and a half now (it is -20 centigrade outside as I write this in Southern Sweden which is about 15 degrees below normal).
This has deflected the Atlantic storms north into the Barents Sea area and drifted the ice east and north. This is the reason there is a large area of open water east of Novaya Zemlya.
Also please note that the record (for the season) ice in the Baltic, the Caspian Sea and the Bohai sea, does not count, being too far south.
Paris got a fresh coating of snow overnight, to the delight of my kids.
When will the āweather is not climate departmentā issue an update on the UAH ch05 graph? The next few days are bound to be very exciting. Will the line representing 2010 temperature anomaly go under the 20 year record line or will it continue doing what no line has ever done before?
Freak weather conditions and/or abnormal weather patterns
Wait a minute… didn’t it also say seen 30 years ago? There is nothing ‘freak’ or ‘abnormal’ about this. It’s just that we have a 60 year cycle that swapped from a warm 30 year half cycle to a cold 30 year half cycle. So it’s 1950 again and we’re going to be cold for the next 30 years.
Cue the AGW folks that they need to roll out the 1970’s “Ice Age Is Coming” props and change all their “evil CO2 causes warmth” signs to “evil particulates causes cold”… AGW is just SOOoo last millenium… AGC is all the rage now š
Oh the perils of using a 30 year averaging / baseline in systems with 60 year, 80 year, 178 year, even several hundred year cycles in it…
pat (18:43:17),
You misunderstand my post. I have no concern about China emitting CO2, or modernizing. I was pointing out the fallacy of their per capita argument, and the fact that they do not use pollution mitigation on their power plants, thus dumping huge amounts of soot around the world.
The last point is a real problem. No doubt China will say that we did the same thing, and they would be right. But we voluntarily cleaned up our act, while China cares only about money. Pollution abatement costs money, so they don’t use the technology.
In addition, compared with today little was known about pollution prior to WWII – the wind simply blew it away. But after WWII we industrialized very heavily, and cities like Pittsburgh became filled with airborne pollution.
So we fixed the problem. But even with a trillion U.S. dollars in the bank, China will not do the right thing.
A friend of mine travels to China frequently on business. His descriptions of the rampant air, water and other pollution are incredible. He wears one of those masks whenever he’s outside, and when he comes in there’s a black outline of his nose and mouth. Raw industrial sewage is dumped straight into the lakes and rivers. The average Chinese hates it, but since money is all-important to the Chinese, and always trumps their environment, nothing is ever cleaned up.
It’s the same with the atmosphere that we all share. China couldn’t care less that they’re sending megatons of industrial soot around the world every day. If avoiding pollution mitigation makes them a few more yuan, then to hell with it. That’s their attitude.
And that attitude is just fine with the hypocritical enviro lobby, who never seem to point out the damage China is doing to the planet.
Man has allways had problems understanding processes lasting longer than a lifetime. Not to mention when it lasts shorter than, say, a microsecond.
Therefore we have difficulties understanding the effect of the enourmous deep-sea currents.
Hansen is right on that; There is indeed heat in the pipeline.
But its not in the CO2. Its in the deep sea currents.
The problem is ; Everything above -273.15 Kelvin is heat.
You just dont know whether the heat in the pipeline is above or below the level humanity would like it to be.
We dont even know what level we would like it to be.
tarpon (14:11:24) : Is this the same ice marked in red on the GISS temperature reports?
Well, the sea is only red up near Russia, down near China the latest map shows only a deep amber:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2009&month_last=12&sat=4&sst=1&type=anoms&mean_gen=12&year1=2009&year2=2009&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reg
that’s a +1/2 to +1 C range. Probably no more than 50 year record warmth.
Now Alaska, that’s a very deep red. Up in the +4 to +7.2 C range. Clearly headed to Palm Tree Land at great speed. Maybe those Chinese can all take vacations in Alaska to warm up? … Just like the whole Arctic Ice Cap (or should I say “Arctic Sauna & Beach Club”. ) Why, other than the area near Fargo, South Dakota and Siberia, the whole darned planet is shades of hot, darned hot, hotter, and Satanic Hot. At least, per the GISS map…
So all you folks waking on frozen water, just cut it right out! You’re spoiling the ‘specialness’ of the effect…
Or, put another way: Since we KNOW that there is ice and snow all over the Northern Hemisphere right now, yet The Map shows rosy reds, clearly the answer is:
But It’s A Warm Snow! (and now: But it’s a warm ice… )
Take a look at that map, it is a nice warming glow…
“Smokey (02:59:07) :”
Well, the developed world did all their “polluting” ages ago. China/India are just doing what England, Europe and the US did to build their economies. And the “west” did not volunteer to “clean up”, it was forced into action, which was a good thing. Only problem now is that with all the environmental laws, they’ve shifted mfg to China/India. Funny that!
And talking of raw sewage discharge, there is one country I know of, even lived in and know the local authorities where I lived also dumped raw, untreated sewage into the local river systems and as the “authority” didn’t apply for a “permit” from the “environment court”, was fined. Who pays? rate payers of course! This country is New Zealand. So not only China!
E.M.Smith (02:58:38) :
Dead right! Look at the cooling experience by China in the period 1940-1969 – Figure 9 here: http://diggingintheclay.blogspot.com/2010/01/mapping-global-warming.html
These are maps of Station Temperature Trends – not anomalies or actual temperature.
More ice just means global warming is worse than they thought.
Smokey 17:07:20 — “The real problem is particulate pollution ā soot. About one third of all airborne pollution on the U.S.-Canadian-Mexican west coast comes straight from China. That kind of pollution causes real health issues, unlike harmless and beneficial CO2.”
Ah, Smokey. Always right on the money. Always clarifying. There now are so many commenters (a marker of fine growth and development on WUWT) I haven’t read your contributions as regularly. I have missed them, and your wisdom.
With all the kings men laughing, (Obama ) what actually were they laughing about ?
Well with about half the country under snow, the other half wondering were they are going to get the money to pay the carbon taxes, and the politico’s are wondering which beach the ‘king’ is going to put his throne on,.
Thinking;
with the kings advisers, logic/mentality they will most probably pick a flooded Florida rock quarry.
Yep, we just got to keep in touch with, ah, what was that topic again ?
Re E.M.Smith (03:17:58) :
Duh, it is all very scientific, heat rises, north is up.
Re. Patrick Davis (03:22:54)
“And the āwestā did not volunteer to āclean upā, it was forced into action,”
Who forced what. In democratic societies the citizens form a group and forced other groups (coorperations ) to change. China does not have that situation. So Smokey’s “we changed” is correct.
The problem of coorporations and “globalization” are very complicated with many pros and cons, kind of like climate, in many cases it was a clear choice for some business decision makers, move offshore or cease to exist.
“
It’s truly ironic that the “environmental” movement is led mostly by socialists and former Communists (e.g., the German Green Party). As we found out after the Iron Curtain fell, and as the Chinese are demonstrating today, Communism is the worst enemy the environment ever had.
vjones (05:14:24) :
And you have verified with provenance that the historic station data sets used in those graphs are one and the same?
I can see problems in certain “edited” areas.
It will take an army of 10,000 a better part of a year to verify half of the station data used.
I know of no such effort.
We now see with modern sensing techniques that when cold air flows from the poles to be replaced by warmer air from surrounding areas two things happen:
i) The polar sea ice reduces because of the incoming warmer air.
ii) The sea ice around nearby land masses increases because of the outgoing cold air but much of that sea ice especially in the northern hemisphere is outside the polar region.
Thus to get a meaningful total sea ice figure we really need the sea ice coverage for the whole hemishere not just for the polar region itself.
It’s quite possible (indeed likely) that we see a record a low Arctic sea ice figure at the same time as we have a very high northern hemisphere sea ice figure.
E.M.Smith (02:58:38) : As I have cited many times, UN FAO paper relates temperatures, fish catches, to LOD and 55 cycles:
http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/005/Y2787E/y2787e01.htm
E.M.Smith (03:17:58) : So all you folks waking on frozen water, just cut it right out! Youāre spoiling the āspecialnessā of the effectā¦ Michael, Have you forgotten “ice-9”, ? They’ve obviously come up with some variant of it, so water in those pesky areas of “localized climate” variation, is freezing at higher temps! It’s obviously much warmer than we think it is. I’m surprised no one has come up with a new improved temperature scale to measure AGW, perhaps degrees Gaia, Ā°G. Each degree would be 50% of a Ā°F. We could set our thermostats at 136Ā°G, and wouldn’t we be cozy. A balmy 70Ā°F day could be a scorching 140Ā°G. Record temps will go into the 200’s! Talk about a hockey-stick when the new temps are appended to the old record! Sounds like AGW statistical heaven to me.
rbateman (08:09:03) :
The data used in the maps is from:
for NOAA/GHCN V2.mean.z and v2.mean_adj.Z
for GISS the GHCN the V2.mean.z and the GIStemp combined/homogenised data file (which required a binary reader to convert to .txt). This is a version before GISS started to use USHCNv2.
Data for each station was handled via a data base and bespoke code first to knit different series together then to generate trends. The only thing ‘done’ to the downloaded data was an ‘audit’ of the seasonal and annual means, which showed there was some discrepancy between how these are SUPPOSED to be calcualted according to published methods and the actual results in the files, therefore all years for which there was even one missing month of data were removed from the record and the trends calculated without them, so that we were sure of using no ‘infill’ or ‘bias’ created by the respective institutions however accidental.
The database development and the mapping creation are documented here (respectively):
http://diggingintheclay.blogspot.com/2010/01/climate-database-development.html
http://diggingintheclay.blogspot.com/2010/01/mapping-global-warming.html
The point is to show in a different way the story told by the temperature trends in that actual data used by GISS to produce anomaly maps.
Its all about the BTUs.
Devilishly clever, those limeys.
I hope the Chinese don’t buy wind turbines.
These in Minnesota won’t work in cold weather.
http://kstp.com/news/stories/S1390565.shtml
Brand new @ 300,000 each. The oil is stiff and they are shut down.
http://kstp.com/news/stories/S1390565.shtml
China, stick with coal. It won’t let you down.
David A (07:30:55) :
Re E.M.Smith (03:17:58) :
Duh, it is all very scientific, heat rises, north is up.
But I’ve got an Australian World Map, and it says that north is down.
Mind you, being Australian, it’s probably wrong. (runs to Mars for cover)
“David A (07:40:31) :
Re. Patrick Davis (03:22:54)
āAnd the āwestā did not volunteer to āclean upā, it was forced into action,ā
Who forced what. In democratic societies the citizens form a group and forced other groups (coorperations ) to change. China does not have that situation. So Smokeyās āwe changedā is correct.
The problem of coorporations and āglobalizationā are very complicated with many pros and cons, kind of like climate, in many cases it was a clear choice for some business decision makers, move offshore or cease to exist.ā
For a start “clean air” acts (US), power stations, cement factories and car makers just to mention a few. The “clean air” act forced car makers to install catalyic converters. Certain municipal waste processing centers which had burners had to install smoke stack scrubbers, similar with power stations (UK perspective). So without these Govn’t acts/policies, no-one would be forced to do something a diferent way.
And the fact that these acts/policies are in place in the “west” we now find much mfg going offshore to China and India.
The northern hemisphere sea ice anomaly looks really low
vjones (10:47:41) :
I understand what happens to a month when you remove 3 days, a year when you remove a month. That is why I go to such pains to pour through newsprint. Where climate is concerned, every day is precious. You cannot go back in time and resample, but you can look for corroborating/missing data. Not all data taken made it to the reports, and not all reports are accounted for. That is, the data is the signal, the noise is the gaps plus any errors in reading, siting, adjusting, modifying, etc.
Losing days, weeks and months out of station records is like rubbing salt in the afterwounds.
And that is why Time Out has to be called.
I do applaud the efforts to stop the wrecking ball from tearing into whole economies over GCM trickery and fudged data, but it won’t help us to truly get a handle on climate until as much of the data is rescued from the bonfires of AGW and the ravages of neglect.
I am truly disappointed in NCDC, who upon receiving my request and acknowledging correct station history, proceeded down the path of dividing by 2 to get to zero where being helpful counted the most.
Eli, I see your Northern and raise you a Global. http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg
It is Global that we are always talking about isn’t it? Current Global anomaly is about 1 million square miles, but it has generally been less. Average Global coverage looks to be roughly 20 Million square miles. Higher math here 1/20=5%. Can we say one standard deviation? Northern Hemisphere trend is greater than 1 sigma negative, but still not convincingly greater than natural variability.
Arctic airmasses have consistently drained south this season due to the AO, leading to a cold winter in populated areas. This limits damming of arctic cold, and it is probably warmer (and less icy) up there than it otherwise would be.
Triumphalism on either side of the argument has not been justified. In God We Trust-All others must bring data.
RE: “Eli Rabett”
The temperature above 80N looks “normal” right now, and well below freezing
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
As NASA says, “must be the wind”.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/08/11/nasa-sees-arctic-ocean-circulation-do-an-about-face/
David A (07:40:31) :
Re. Patrick Davis (03:22:54)
“The problem of coorporations and āglobalizationā are very complicated with many pros and cons, kind of like climate, in many cases it was a clear choice for some business decision makers, move offshore or cease to exist.”
Go back a step, the US and EU corporations had to relocate over seas AFTER treaties such as WTO and NAFTA created no tariff open borders. We can thank the democrats (Clinton) for that one too. Tarrifs/Import duties kept the playing field even so products produced in polluting factories with slave labor were priced the same as home made products. Now manufacturing has been exported so most goods are produced in polluting factories with slave labor, the Tarrifs/Import duties are gone and the corporations pocket the increase in profits and the EU and the USA continue to get blamed for “Killing Mother Earth” despite the shutting down of our industry.
hswiseman (23:35:23) :
Eli, I see your Northern and raise you a Global. http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg
It is Global that we are always talking about isnāt it? Current Global anomaly is about 1 million square miles, but it has generally been less.
Then I’ll raise you!
Global sea ice is now close to its annual minimum, already lower than the last two year’s minima and there are only 3 lowet, and it is almost certain to become the second lowest (after 2006).