We’ve seen how the World Wildlife Fund reports were included in IPCC AR4 with disastrous results, now we have an example of a newspaper and TV Network hanging their entire story on a report from the National Wildlife Federation.
Here’s the WaPo story:
Harsh winter a sign of disruptive climate change, report says
By Juliet Eilperin and David A. Fahrenthold
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, January 28, 2010; A10
This winter’s extreme weather — with heavy snowfall in some places and unusually low temperatures — is in fact a sign of how climate change disrupts long-standing patterns, according to a new report by the National Wildlife Federation.
… more here
Now here’s a few things to consider.
Ryan Maue writes at Climate Audit:
The title of the newest contribution is “Odd-ball Winter Weather: Global Warming’s Wake-Up Call for the Northern United States” and the PDF can be downloaded from their website. It is a well-manicured reported with glossy photos of wildlife, folks enjoying ice fishing and skiing, and snowplows. Here is the introductory paragraph to get a flavor of the quality of the report:
Global warming is having a seemingly peculiar effect on winter weather in the northern United States. Winter is becoming milder and shorter on average; spring arrives 10 to 14 days earlier than it did just 20 years ago. But most snowbelt areas are still experiencing extremely heavy snowstorms. Some places are even expected to have more heavy snowfall events as storm tracks shift northward and as reduced ice cover on the Great Lakes increases lake-effect snowfalls. Even as global warming slowly changes the character of winter, we will still experience significant year-to-year variability in snowfall and temperature because many different factors are at play.
Ryan adds:
A few brief comments: (1) Throughout the report, there is unscientific language in the headlines similar to “seemingly peculiar” like “odd-ball”, “erratic”, “surprises”, “patchy”, and “thrown for a loop”. It is clear that the audience of the report is the layperson in the public, but using such terminology obfuscates the scientific message being made. (2) As the first paragraph highlights, there have been changes in winter weather during the past 20-years, a rather short time period to be making proclamations about trends or climate change for that matter. Also, the equivocal nature of the final sentence needs to be translated: global warming “slowly” changes the character of winter… year-to-year variability and different factors are at play = natural climate oscillations and modes of large-scale variability trump the changes associated with global warming during the past 20-years.
Recent odd-ball (sic) weather events.
As WUWT readers know, we’ve seen lots of “odd-ball” weather before in the USA, often far worse than today.
Here are a few of the NWF claims:
The spatial extent of snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere has decreased by approximately 3 to 9 percent since 1978, with especially rapid declines in the western United States
This is highly misleading. As reported earlier on WUWT, December, 2009 had the second greatest December snow cover on record in the Northern Hemisphere. 17 out of the last 21 Decembers have had above average snow cover. October, 2009 had the sixth greatest October snow extent on record in the Northern Hemisphere. Seven out of the last ten Octobers have had above average snow cover. January, 2008 had the third greatest snow extent ever measured in the Northern Hemisphere. Seven out of the last nine January’s have had above average snow cover.
The western United States has actually been seeing record snowfall in recent years, not “rapid declines” as claimed by NWF.
NCDC snow report from the winter of 2007-2008 Numerous ski resorts in the West reported record breaking snowfall this year, as did parts of northern Maine. Caribou, Maine received 197.8 inches (502 cm) of snowfall this winter, shattering the previous record of 181.1 inches (460 cm).
Mt. Crested Butte, Colorado received 418 inches (1061 cm) during the 2007-08 winter, breaking the previous record of 415 inches (1054 cm) from 1979-1980. Even Spokane, Washington was the second-snowiest on record with 89.5 inches (227 cm), four inches (10 cm) short of the previous record from 1949-1950. The map to the right depicts the snowpack levels in many Rocky Mountain basins on May 1, 2008, illustrating a residual near to above average snow cover over much of the Rockies and Cascades in the western U.S. Thirty-two Snowtel locations reported record snow water equivalent records by the end of April.
NCDC snow report from the winter of 2008-2009
Across North America, snow cover for the 2008-09 winter was above average, with the 12th largest extent since satellite records began in 1967.
The winter of 2009-2010 has also started with record December snow cover in the US, and near record snow depth in the southern Rocky Mountains.
5 FEET OF SNOW IN THE PAST 7 DAYS
Midway Base Depth : 112 Inches
Last 7 Days : 56 Inches
YEAR-TO-DATE TOTAL 103″
BASE DEPTH (mid-mountain undisturbed) 60″
NWF Claim:
Stronger hurricanes, heavier rainfall, and rising sea levels: this is what global warming has in store for the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts.
This again is misleading. According to NOAA the number of major hurricane strikes on the US peaked in the 1940s at ten, and have been generally declining ever since. (2001-2010 has had seven so far.) The last Category 5 hurricane to strike the US was Andrew in 1993. The last three years have seen exceptionally quiet hurricane activity in the US.
Sea level has been rising for 20,000 years since the end of the last ice age, when it was 400 feet lower.
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/images/1/1d/Post-Glacial_Sea_Level.png
Blaming sea level rise on CO2 isn’t going to fly. According to NOAA, sea level is rising at about 2.5mm/year along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the US. At that low rate, it will take nearly a millennium to rise to the high end of IPCC estimates.
NWF Claim:
Global warming will bring more extreme heat waves. By the 2080s and 2090s, many parts of the country will have more than two months each year with 100-degree weather if global warming emissions are not curbed.
There is zero evidence of this in the temperature record. NCDC data shows essentially no warming in US summer temperatures over the last 80 years. The hottest summer was in the 1930s.
NCDC summer temperatures for the US 1930-2009
NWF claim:
Global warming has caused more heavy rainfall events in the United States over the last few decades along with an increased likelihood of devastating floods
Actually, the ten deadliest floods in US history all took place prior to 1977.
1. Johnstown, PA
May 31, 1889
Death Toll: 2,200
Several days of extremely heavy rainfall, brought about the collapse of the South Fork Dam, which was 14 miles upstream of Johnstown, PA. It was the first major disaster relief effort handled by the new American Red Cross, led by Clara Barton. Support for victims came from all over the United States and 18 foreign countries. It remains one of the greatest disasters in U.S. history.
The Johnstown Flood also became a social cause celebre, because the dam that collapsed had been built to create a lake for vacationing millionaires, such as Andrew Carnegie and Andrew Mellon, while the inhabitants of the town were Welsh and German immigrants.
2. Mississippi Valley
January and February 1937
Death Toll: 1,100
Heavy rains flooded 12,700 square miles, destroying 75,000 homes, and leaving 600,000 refugees.
3. Ohio River
March, 1913
Death Toll: 700
Heavy rains brought severe flooding. The disaster led to the nation’s first flood control board and programs.
4. Santa Paula, CA
March 12, 1928
Death Toll: 450
Collapse of the St. Francis Dam
5. Rapid City, SD
June 9 – 10, 1972
Death Toll: 237
Flash flood
6. Kansas City, Missouri
May 16 – June 1, 1903
Death Toll: 200
Heavy rains brought flooding that raised the level of the Missouri River 35 feet.
7. Mississippi Valley
April – May 1912
Death Toll: 200
The Mississippi River overflows its banks.
8. Willow Creek, OR
1903
Death Toll: 200
Flash flood sweeps away a third of the town.
9. Man, WV
Feb. 26, 1972
Death Toll: 118
Slag pile dam collapses under torrential rains.
10. Loveland, CO
August 1, 1976
Death Toll: 139
Flash flood in Big Thompson Canyon
NWF claim:
Large parts of the western United States and much of the Southeast has already begun experiencing more frequent and more severe droughts
According to USDA, none of the southeast and very little of the west is experiencing a severe drought. No doubt there is unsustainable water usage in the west, but this has little to do with climate. The 1930s saw the worst droughts in US history. Likewise, the Anasazi were driven out of their home by drought in the thirteenth century, but it is unlikely this was due to people driving Hummers in Chaco Canyon. Drought cycles happen in the west, and they always have.
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
In summary, it appears that NWF, like WWF, is spreading a large amount of global warming misinformation, and some news outlets like Washington Post and MSNBC seem to accept it without question.
h/t Thanks to Steve Goddard for rounding up rubuttal graphics
National Wildlife Federation Misinformation Campaign
The National Wildlife Federation has issued a new report “Odd-ball Winter Weather: Global Warming’sWake-Up Call for the Northern United States” containing an exceptional amount of misinformation.
Here are a few of their claims:
The spatial extent of snow cover
across the Northern Hemisphere has
decreased by approximately 3 to 9
percent since 1978, with especially
rapid declines in the western United
States
This is highly misleading. As reported on WUWT – December, 2009 had the second greatest December snow cover on record in the Northern Hemisphere. 17 out of the last 21 Decembers have had above average snow cover. October, 2009 had the sixth greatest October snow extent on record in the Northern Hemisphere. Seven out of the last ten Octobers have had above average snow cover. January, 2008 had the third greatest snow extent ever measured in the Northern Hemisphere. Seven out of the last nine January’s have had above average snow cover.
The western United States has actually been seeing record snowfall in recent years, not “rapid declines” as claimed by NWF.
NCDC snow report from the winter of 2007-2008 Numerous ski resorts in the West reported record breaking snowfall this year, as did parts of northern Maine. Caribou, Maine received 197.8 inches (502 cm) of snowfall this winter, shattering the previous record of 181.1 inches (460 cm).
Mt. Crested Butte, Colorado received 418 inches (1061 cm) during the 2007-08 winter, breaking the previous record of 415 inches (1054 cm) from 1979-1980. Even Spokane, Washington was the second-snowiest on record with 89.5 inches (227 cm), four inches (10 cm) short of the previous record from 1949-1950. The map to the right depicts the snowpack levels in many Rocky Mountain basins on May 1, 2008, illustrating a residual near to above average snow cover over much of the Rockies and Cascades in the western U.S. Thirty-two Snowtel locations reported record snow water equivalent records by the end of April.
NCDC snow report from the winter of 2008-2009
Across North America, snow cover for the 2008-09 winter was above average, with the 12th largest extent since satellite records began in 1967.
The winter of 2009-2010 has also started with record December snow cover in the US, and near record snow depth in the southern Rocky Mountains.
5 FEET OF SNOW IN THE PAST 7 DAYS
Midway Base Depth : 112 Inches
Last 7 Days : 56 Inches
YEAR-TO-DATE TOTAL 103″
BASE DEPTH (mid-mountain undisturbed) 60″
NWF Claim:
Stronger hurricanes, heavier rainfall,
and rising sea levels: this is what global
warming has in store for the U.S. Gulf
and Atlantic coasts.
This again is misleading. According to NOAA the number of major hurricane strikes on the US peaked in the 1940s at ten, and have been generally declining ever since. (2001-2010 has had seven so far.) The last Category 5 hurricane to strike the US was Andrew in 1993. The last three years have seen exceptionally quiet hurricane activity in the US.
Sea level has been rising for 20,000 years since the end of the last ice age, when it was 400 feet lower.
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/images/1/1d/Post-Glacial_Sea_Level.png
Blaming sea level rise on CO2 isn’t going to fly. According to NOAA, sea level is rising at about 2.5mm/year along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the US. At that low rate, it will take nearly a millennium to rise to the high end of IPCC estimates.
NWF Claim:
Global warming will bring more extreme
heat waves. By the 2080s and 2090s,
many parts of the country will have
more than two months each year with
100-degree weather if global warming
emissions are not curbed.
There is zero evidence of this in the temperature record. NCDC data shows essentially no warming in US summer temperatures over the last 80 years. The hottest summer was in the 1930s.
NCDC summer temperatures for the US 1930-2009
NWF claim:
Global warming has caused more
heavy rainfall events in the United
States over the last few decades along
with an increased likelihood of
devastating floods
Actually, the ten deadliest floods in US history all took place prior to 1977.
1. Johnstown, PA
May 31, 1889
Death Toll: 2,200
Several days of extremely heavy rainfall, brought about the collapse of the South Fork Dam, which was 14 miles upstream of Johnstown, PA. It was the first major disaster relief effort handled by the new American Red Cross, led by Clara Barton. Support for victims came from all over the United States and 18 foreign countries. It remains one of the greatest disasters in U.S. history.
The Johnstown Flood also became a social cause celebre, because the dam that collapsed had been built to create a lake for vacationing millionaires, such as Andrew Carnegie and Andrew Mellon, while the inhabitants of the town were Welsh and German immigrants.
2. Mississippi Valley
January and February 1937
Death Toll: 1,100
Heavy rains flooded 12,700 square miles, destroying 75,000 homes, and leaving 600,000 refugees.
3. Ohio River
March, 1913
Death Toll: 700
Heavy rains brought severe flooding. The disaster led to the nation’s first flood control board and programs.
4. Santa Paula, CA
March 12, 1928
Death Toll: 450
Collapse of the St. Francis Dam
5. Rapid City, SD
June 9 – 10, 1972
Death Toll: 237
Flash flood
6. Kansas City, Missouri
May 16 – June 1, 1903
Death Toll: 200
Heavy rains brought flooding that raised the level of the Missouri River 35 feet.
7. Mississippi Valley
April – May 1912
Death Toll: 200
The Mississippi River overflows its banks.
8. Willow Creek, OR
1903
Death Toll: 200
Flash flood sweeps away a third of the town.
9. Man, WV
Feb. 26, 1972
Death Toll: 118
Slag pile dam collapses under torrential rains.
10. Loveland, CO
August 1, 1976
Death Toll: 139
Flash flood in Big Thompson Canyon
NWF claim:
Large parts of the western United
States and much of the Southeast has
already begun experiencing more
frequent and more severe droughts
According to USDA, none of the southeast and very little of the west is experiencing a severe drought. No doubt there is unsustainable water usage in the west, but this has little to do with climate. The 1930s saw the worst droughts in US history. Likewise, the Anasazi were driven out of their home by drought in the thirteenth century, but it is unlikely this was due to people driving Hummers in Chaco Canyon. Drought cycles happen in the west, and they always have.
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
In summary, it appears that NWF, like WWF, is spreading a large amount of global warming misinformation.
This sort of alarmism and these sorts of outrageous claims fly in the face of common sense and are a direct contributor to the decline in public acceptance of global warming.
Hope someone posts a reply to the Washington Post that summarizes this info and provides a link to this site for their readers to review.
Plus, didn’t we just learn that the UN IPCC claims of weather extremes were brought into question as unsubstantiated or wrong?
Good report!
I wonder what statistical program they bought that has “…’seemingly peculiar’ …’odd-ball’, ‘erratic’, ‘surprises’, ‘patchy’, and ‘thrown for a loop'” measures in the statistical analysis pull-down? In my Ivory Tower days I used Statview SE. I don’t remember those particular measures being among the choices. Anyone have the calculations?
“some news outlets like Washington Post and MSNBC seem to accept it with question.”
Should that read: “some news outlets like Washington Post and MSNBC seem to accept it with[OUT] question”?
I read this WaPo article just moments ago. I was stunned at the idiocy. More snow in the Great Lakes region because the Lakes didn’t freeze over and more water evaporated from the Lakes? Are you kidding me? I grew up on Lake Michigan. It NEVER freezes over. AGW only works in one direction (theoretically) – it WARMS. There is nothing in the theory to suggest it can trigger cold weather by magically upsetting Gaia.
Here in the great State of Washington we are having weather just like the doctors ordered. What doctors, you ask?
The one’s that established the characteristics of El Nino weather-related events. Yes, it seems a bit mild and drier than normal. It fits the pattern perfectly and the pattern is not new nor does it have anything to do with a disruption of “long-standing patterns.” It is, in fact, a long-standing pattern.
I wonder how many science classes Juliet Eilperin and David A. Fahrenthold, the Washington Post Staff Writers, have on their school transcripts? Maybe they should go back to writing about school board elections and lawn-n-garden shows.
Ryan
Can you update the hurricane landfall records for 2005-2009. Otherwise it looks like you missed the hurricane fun year of 2006 when Katrina and Rita struck.
The NWF report comes “at a time when, despite a wealth of scientific evidence, the American public is increasingly skeptical that climate change is happening at all.”
OR
The NWF report comes “at a time when a lack of scientific evidence has the American public increasingly skeptical that climate change is happening at all.”
What is significant is that there has not been MORE of this sort of thing this (northern) winter. They just cant pull it off any more. Since Copenhagen there has been less stridence and lots of silence – more evidence that the tide has turned.
Typo patrol. Last paragraph says “…seem to accept it with question.” I think you mean “without question.” And last line should be “rebuttal graphics” vice “rubuttal.”
The history is unequivocal, we have had weather in the past even more extreme than today. The fact that we seem to forget history is what lets these outrageous claims stand.
Ben
This is huge I personally would not agree with seeing Prof Jones in jail
http://www.climategate.com/climategate-professor-phil-jones-could-face-ten-years-on-fraud-charges
You see ICO is not really in charge…
British Fraud Act 2006
If true, should be prosecuted along with ALL the others but no jail term for anyone involved, in what is, after all, a scientific debate gone over the top and people being pressured to tow the line from the top.
Excuse my ignorance….but how could a cold snowy winter be a disruption of ‘normal’ climate patterns? It seems pretty routine to me. Am I missing something here? Is this more nuanced recalibration of reality from the elite Wizards of Smart to advance their phony agenda….aka….prol-feed? Like subtle the difference between ‘weather’ and ‘climate’?
John A,
The paragraph above the hurricane table reads:
(2001-2010 has had seven so far.)
This is progress. The Washington Post feeds MSNBC content, so really only one major outlet picked up the Press Release issued by the NWF. It is likely that with the failure of Copenhagen and the self-inflicted implosion of IPCC credibility that major newspapers are actually hesitant to publish or regurgitate a press release with the title “odd-ball winter weather caused by global warming”.
Also, with the State of the Union address in which Obama mentioned cap and trade, this publication by the Washington Post seems planned and likely a planted story for political reasons.
Thank you and great job uncovering the muck that surrounds the “science.”
It is hard to believe that idiots and fools continue to spout out this WWF bunk….but, you know, it is hard to believe anything these days.
One thing good is that the truth will win out and this site is helping in the process!!!
CHRIS
Norfolk, VA, USA
Well at least it’s clear now: “climate change” = “global warming” as it always has, which is why winters are getting colder and recent summers have been cooler. Clear as mud.
But yet we have to endure comments such as one on Moonbat’s column today, saying that ALL skeptics are old (self-hating ?) males.
Sorry pal, but older folks know more about recent history, on the time-scale in question, having lived through it. This isn’t a case of the old saying “age and treachery defeats youth and skill”, but it may be case of age and skill ……
I attended a very pro-presentation by IPCC lead author David Randall a couple of years where he was asked if the record cold and snow in China could be explained by global warming.
His answer was “no.”
There’s a joke going around in Mennonite circles:
Q: “How many Mennonites does it take to change a lightbulb?”
A: “CHANGE???!!!”
Mennonites like to poke fun at the caricature of themselves that exists in many people’s minds who think they all drive horses and buggies (actually the Luddite variety is a very small minority).
But it seems the NWF, WWF, IPCC etc. crowd are the ones who ought to have this joke told about them, because anything that reeks of (climate) “change” appears to be (literally) the end of the world in their minds. I’ve lived on this earth a mere 50 years, in many climate zones, but the one constant is that people continually apologize for the unusual weather. “In most years it’s not like this — this year is an exception”.
I’ve come to expect “exceptional weather” as the norm. It has been the case wherever I live, to the point that I think people construct a false image of what “normal” is in their region — probably based on some year or two in their youth in which some definitive event took place in their lives, and forever shaped their expectations for years to come. But the perception is simply false — there has ALWAYS been unusual weather. The only thing I find striking about this NWFS graphic is how FEW extreme weather events they identify during a 7-year period. Big deal — any 7 years in recorded history should produce about the same number.
ryanm: “Also, with the State of the Union address in which Obama mentioned cap and trade, this publication by the Washington Post seems planned and likely a planted story for political reasons.”
Very prescient observations. Right you are, man. Thank you.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Pamela Gray (21:25:51) : “I wonder what statistical program they bought that has “…’seemingly peculiar’ …’odd-ball’, ‘erratic’, ’surprises’, ‘patchy’, and ‘thrown for a loop’” measures in the statistical analysis pull-down?”
Well, “patchy” obviously refers to Rajendra Pachauri, and is a synonym for those other words.
D. Patterson (21:28:33) : ” ‘some news outlets like Washington Post and MSNBC seem to accept it with question.’
“Should that read: ‘some news outlets like Washington Post and MSNBC seem to accept it with[OUT] question’?”
Halfway there, DP. It should read “Some propaganda outlets like Washington Post and MSNBC seem to eat it up without question.”
Remember the one about Antarctic ice increasing relentlessly because of a closed wind-system, caused by…yep, AGW.
Later, when one portion of the Antarctic did some melting…no more closed wind-system!
Meanwhile, since the hockeystick lost its straight handle, some of the believers are now touting overpopulation in the Middle Ages as the cause of global warming as the cause of shutting down the gulfstream as the cause of global cooling as the cause of Black Death as the cause of reforestation as the cause of more cooling…
Don’t even try with these guys.
Global Oddball Disruptive Climate Change.
These claims certainly do have an odd way of flip-flopping about.
Highly disruptive to the consistency of thier message, which is now driven by an unbroken string of forecasting bellyflops and gross exaggerations neatly exposed.
That’s a lot of egg on those faces.
Nope, no luck. Wolfram doesn’t give those options for statistical analyses either. Haven’t seen them in Origin 8, SAS or SPSS either.
The US drought monitor graphic clearly shows the recovery we have experienced in the S.E. United States. We have suffered though quite a drought in Upstate South Carolina and surrounding areas, but it happens from time to time. When I first moved to this region in the early 1980’s there was a similar event. Lake Hartwell showed the same red clay ring seen for the last few years. They can’t hardly let enough water through the dam these days. This is a 900+ shore mile lake.
The US drought monitor graphic clearly shows the recovery we have experienced in the S.E. United States. We have suffered through quite a drought in Upstate South Carolina and surrounding areas, but it happens from time to time. When I first moved to this region in the early 1980’s there was a similar event. Lake Hartwell showed the same red clay ring seen for the last few years. They can’t hardly let enough water through the dam these days. This is a 900+ shore mile lake.
Tsk, tsk…AGW is so yesterday! That’s why they call it “Climate Change” these days. That way they can eat their cake and have it too! Didn’t you get the memo? Our existence upsets Gaia! Get with the program Doc!
savethesharks (21:56:33) :
They should read the accounts of what it was like in the 1800’s – 1840’s in the US. Only the sturdiest and the brave ventured out into the fierce winters back then.
Living in the Red River valley Canadian side, the flood of 97 was certainly worse than 2009. There was basically a small sea here in 97. Fargo may have crested the highest, but that is the first 15% of the river.
Well whatever, you can’t expect the truth every day from these people.
The following paper appeared in the March 2009 edition of the International Journal of Modern Physics.
The central claims of Dr. Gerlich and his colleague, Dr. Ralf Tscheuschner includes:
1) The mechanism of warming in an actual greenhouse is different than the mechanism of warming in the atmosphere, therefore it is not a “greenhouse” effect and should be called something else.
2) The climate models that predict catastrophic global warming also result in a net heat flow from atmospheric greenhouse gasses to the warmer ground, which is in violation of the second law of thermodynamics.
The AGW Theory is Science Fiction, in other words;
http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/0707/0707.1161v4.pdf
Donna LaFramboise writes:
http://nofrakkingconsensus.blogspot.com/2010/01/greenpeace-and-nobel-winning-climate_28.html
Don’t like the climate…wait 30 years or so…it’ll change.
But alas the poor Climate Change artist…stuck on the same old song:
Let’s do the Climate Change Twist (aka – the Perpetual Motion Pretzel).
Its in volume 23;
http://worldscinet.com/ijmpb/23/2303/S021797920904984X.html
This is the kind of press release that causes more and more of the public to think the warmists are a laughing stock.
In that vein, I always figured warming would cause cooling. It’s sort of a frigid heat, similar to what your freezer’s thermometere measures when you accidentally short it across 120 VAC – you see little glowy snowflakes dancing in front of your eyes as you try and beat out the flames.
Monckton features on the Sydney Morning Herald and delivering punch after punch to the little boy environment reporter who must now be fearing for his job. Reporter Cubby 0, Monckton 10
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/climategate-gives-lord-of-the-sceptics-plenty-of-ammunition-20100127-mywc.html
No, no, no! Hot means cold, cold means warm, warm means hot. Get your facts straight, that is, the NEW facts. Snow is a signature of a warming trend, the same as with brutal summers and heavy rainfall. Earthquakes and tsunamis are climate related, whereas weather is not, unless otherwise stated. I know this may sound confusing to the layperson, but so did “new math” when first introduced. This is “new science” and it has already taken the world by storm, which is fitting as instances of storms are increasing due to the aforementioned warming trend.
Gentlemen! Welcome to the New World! Up is down, down is up. Left is right, right is wrong. Have fun! It’s sleeting/snowing/freezing rain here in my home town. Love this warm/cold non-climate weather event we’re having! (North Arkansas)
The part of the WaPo article that nearly made my head explode this morning was this:
‘On Wednesday, Yale and George Mason universities released a survey showing that just 57 percent of people said global warming “is happening.” That was down 14 percentage points, from 71 percent, in October 2008…
Edward Maibach, a George Mason professor, said two outside events may have played a role in the change: First came the recession; then Congress took up legislation to limit greenhouse gases, spurring industry groups and politicians to warn that tackling climate change would kick the economy while it was down.’
How about a THIRD outside event, known as CLIMATEGATE? Ever heard of that, Professor?
Meanwhile, an ice age is imminent in Eureka, California. If one extrapolates the recent trend, that is. Sixty-seven years ought to do it, to produce zero degrees C average temperature in Eureka. Someone call the tree-huggers so they can move all those Coastal Redwoods! That will take some planning and serious grunt-work to accomplish.
http://sowellslawblog.blogspot.com/2010/01/eureka-ca-headed-for-ice-age-in-67.html
What more can you expect from postmodern science and postnormal and post modern scientists?
If that is the best they can do with billions of dollars funding their physical science, imagine the mischief they can do with their political science and postmodern journalism….
Well now its water vapour
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1246904/Water-vapour-responsible-slowdown-global-warming.html
But some will just not listen.
Dr Vicky Pope, head of climate science at the Met Office, said: ‘Whatever’s causing this change from decade to decade is having an influence at the surface. But it is a small variation on top of the long term increase in manmade greenhouse gases.’
Hypocracy of a warmist.
UK Chief Scientist puts personal gain before environmental protection
The UK government’s chief scientist, John Beddington – who this week we heard saying that climate scientists need to be more open, while still claiming that AGW is real and a major threat (ie. we all need to do our bit to save the enviroenment) – is shown here to be putting personal profit over protecting wildlife:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6997414.ece
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2008/04/20-of-scientist/
I recently spent time in the UK for, sadly, my fathers funeral. The weather in the south west of England was bitterly cold, but I managed to escape to NZ before the really big snow arrived.
I did manage to get up to the bleak yet beautiful Dartmoor for a hike. This National Park, for those that know, is a wild and rugged environment that regularly takes the lives of unprepared people, even with the modern conveniences of Goretex and GPS.
If you visit the rocks of Hound Tor, nearby lay the ruins of a medieval village.
This village is little known, but is marked clearly on the OS Maps. Local knowledge says that people lived on the moors here until it became too cold to grow their crops and rear their livestock.
This village existed in a period commonly known as the Medieval Warm Period
Your honour, Exhibit A……
“Some places are even expected to have more heavy snowfall events as storm tracks shift northward…”
Sure, like the winter storm just tracking across New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma. Like the foot+ blizzard in the same just weeks ago. I wish they would shift northward!
Well i suppose it’s possible that we could have an ice-age first before global warming becomes a problem. So what do we do about the possibility of an ice-age, which happens to be far worse than any global warming catastrophe the IPCC keeps peddling? Increase CO2 emissions perhaps?
People-and journalists in particular- seem to have no grasp of what the climate was doing before they were born, or that climate regularly fluctuates from warm to cold and back again. This from the weather diaries of Thomas Jefferson around 1770;
“A change in our climate however is taking place very sensibly. Both heats and colds are become much more moderate within the memory even of the middle-aged. Snows are less frequent and less deep. They do not often lie, below the mountains, more than one, two, or three days, and very rarely a week. They are remembered to have been formerly frequent, deep, and of long continuance. The elderly inform me the earth used to be covered with snow about three months in every year. The rivers, which then seldom failed to freeze over in the course of the winter, scarcely ever do so now.
This change has produced an unfortunate fluctuation between heat and cold, in the spring of the year, which is very fatal to fruits. From the year 1741 to 1769, an interval of twenty-eight years, there was no instance of fruit killed by the frost in the neighbourhood of Monticello. An intense cold, produced by constant snows, kept the buds locked up till the sun could obtain, in the spring of the year, so fixed an ascendency as to dissolve those snows, and protect the buds, during their developement, from every danger of returning cold. The accumulated snows of the winter remaining to be dissolved all together in the spring, produced those overflowings of our rivers, so frequent then, and so rare now.”
http://xroads.virginia.edu/~HYPER/JEFFERSON/ch07.html
The Hudson Bay records showed the same moderation in this period
More Historical records available from my site;
http://climatereason.com/LittleIceAgeThermometers/
If anyone has any similar records for anywhere in the world please let me know.
Tonyb
May be these people should read up on their physics. They say, in effect, that in a warming world the heat would stop to flow from hot to cold.
I will now cool my house in summer by switching on the heater and warm my house in winter by leaving the CH on stand by.
Andy Scrase
I have written several times here about Hound Tor which is quite close to me. Not far away is a Bronze age village even better preserved. They again had to abandon Dartmoor as the climate cooled. Exhibits A AND B.
(We have them all the way to Z but as its history its only ‘anecdotal’ of course, nowhere near as good as half baked computer models.)
Tonyb
Phil in california
“But yet we have to endure comments such as one on Moonbat’s column today, saying that ALL skeptics are old (self-hating ?) males.”
Don’t worry about him. I have data to prove that I am a female “in my prime” and I think I’m fabulous.
This wonderfully cold winter has really caught the warmists on the hop without a pre-determined strategy because, so far, we have had:
1) Natural variation (UK Met Office)
2) It’s just a couple of weeks of cold weather. Nothing to do with climate (Schmitt et al).
3) It will “probably” be cooler for the next 20 years but that is masking the underlying warming (UK met office).
4) It’s an extreme weather event, typical of global warming (see above)
5) It’s not actually cold – we’ve just had the hottest year / decade on record (UK Met Office)
I live on an island and, even though it is the warmest decade ever, and “just a couple of weeks of cold weather”, our ferry service has just had to go onto a restricted timetable because of the pack ice. And that last occurred in 1987. Presumably before we had “unprecedented warming”.
Zorro (22:56:04) :
“Monckton features on the Sydney Morning Herald…” http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/climategate-gives-lord-of-the-sceptics-plenty-of-ammunition-20100127-mywc.html
Did you notice the comment by Rob in Sydney?
“What you failed to mention is that Mr Monckton also believes that there was some great conspiracy to create a ‘one world government’ embedded in the UN treaty on climate change. I know nothing about climate change but I do know about treaties and if the rest of his critiques are as laughable as this one then the man is a patent fraud.
Now everyone put on their tin hats because the loonies are sure to jump on the comments page hard once they know it’s their chance to howl conspiracy, conspiracy conspiracy!”
The agenda has now changed to attack not CAGW but ” some great conspiracy to create a ‘one world government’ embedded in the UN treaty “ Given Maurice Strong, the father of Global warming and the environmental movement is a member of the U.N.-funded Commission on Global Governance it is no conspiracy but a fact. Now that Copenhagen has fallen through and people are starting to wake-up I think the promoters of a world government are regretting having shown their hand before their world government was completed.
1. We have an international police {obama gave them free license to work in the USA without oversight by the US government}
2. We have an international court. {On June 8, 2007, Under-Secretary of Agriculture Bruce Knight, speaking at the World Pork Expo in Des Moines, Iowa, said, “We have to live by the same international rules we’re expecting other people to do.” Knight was referring to the return and adherence to the International Criminal Court}
3. The UN and WTO are starting to write the laws that the USA, EU Canada Australia are “harmonizing” such as patent and farming laws (Animal ID)
Now the UN wants the right of direct taxation. With a police force, a court system, international laws imposed on member countries under threat of trade sanctions all that is left is taxation and an international currency. The trashing of the US dollar and the resulting call for another trade currency by China show that an international currency is in the works and other plans for a direct tax are already making the news. http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,583127,00.html
Lord Monckton was correct about the drive towards a world government.
“Also in 1991 Strong claimed that the Earth Summit, of which he was Secretary General, would play an important role in “reforming and strengthening the United Nations as the centerpiece of the emerging system of democratic global governance.” In 1995, in ‘Our Global Neighborhood’, the CGG [UN Commission on Global Governance] agreed: “It is our firm conclusion that the United Nations must continue to play a central role in global governance.” the Commission’s recommendations: for instance, that some UN activities be funded through taxes on foreign-exchange transactions and multinational corporations. … It also recommended that “user fees” might be imposed on companies operating in the “global commons.” including carbon taxes, which would be levied on all fuels made from coal, oil, and natural gas.” http://www.afn.org/~govern/strong.html%5D.
Steve Goddard (23:39:22) :
Could be the answer, where could IPCC possibly locate so many scientists dreaming up such vivid monsters? Maybe a drug induced microphobia… fright of tiny things… millimeters of sea rise, tenths of a degree, CO2 molecules, inches of melt, … yep, but all brain-enhanced! 🙂
Stephan, I agree entirely. Fraud prosecutions should be made, however I would be entirely satisfied with a guilty verdict and a suspended sentence. That would ensure that the people associated with this scam were thoroughly dicredited.
On a similar note I have just had this letter published in “The Times”.
Sir, as a scientist and one who also requested data from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) under the F.O.I. Act, I am pleased that the ICO has found that University of East Anglia (UEA) and CRU failed in its duties under the Act.
Two things must now happen.
Firstly, all data, adjustment procedures and computer code relating to the CRU temperature records must be released for proper scientific scrutiny and verification. Until the data is verified all published papers that rely on the CRU temperature record for their conclusions must be withdrawn as being “unproven”.
Secondly, Professor Jones must do the honourable thing and resign. Failing that he must be dismissed if UEA and CRU are to retain any scientific credibility.
Stephan, I agree completely. Fraud prosections should be imitiated against all those complicit in the CRU scam. Guilty verdicts and suspended prison sentences would be sufficient to thoroughly discredit these people, even in the eyes of climate alarmists.
On a similar note, I have just had this letter published in “The Times”
Sir, as a scientist and one who also requested data from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) under the F.O.I. Act, I am pleased that the ICO has found that University of East Anglia (UEA) and CRU failed in its duties under the Act.
Two things must now happen.
Firstly, all data, adjustment procedures and computer code relating to the CRU temperature records must be released for proper scientific scrutiny and verification. Until the data is verified all published papers that rely on the CRU temperature record for their conclusions must be withdrawn as being “unproven”.
Secondly, Professor Jones must do the honourable thing and resign. Failing that he must be dismissed if UEA and CRU are to retain any scientific credibility.
Tony B, I’ve just been discussing – on my own blog and over at JoNova – the climate records and descriptions left by Lieutenant Watkin Tench, who was present in the first four years of Sydney’s settlement. His description of a heat-wave in the summer of 1790-1791 is especially illuminating.
Check out Chapter 17 of his Complete Account of the Settlement at Port Jackson. Available free at sources like this:
http://ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/t/tench/watkin/
Tench is an excellent source. Amazingly, his most recent editor was…Tim Flannery!
Apart from summers that were just too hot, like this year, I have lived through maybe four extended and extreme heat events in coastal NSW during a longish life. Two were sheer heat waves, two involved abnormal wind patterns in summer. The February event described by Tench seems to be a combination of everything. The Australian bush where I live is still thronged with parrots and fruit bats, but I have never known them to die en masse in the way Tench describes.
Stephan (21:42:59) :
This is huge I personally would not agree with seeing Prof Jones in jail
http://www.climategate.com/climategate-professor-phil-jones-could-face-ten-years-on-fraud-charges
You see ICO is not really in charge…
British Fraud Act 2006
If true, should be prosecuted along with ALL the others but no jail term for anyone involved, in what is, after all, a scientific debate gone over the top and people being pressured to tow the line from the top.
There are alternatives. He could be given a 5,000,000 year* community service order, or maybe an ASBO (Antisocial Behaviour Order) preventing him from ever going near any data.
*This is the country that dug up Oliver Cromwell and hanged his corpse.
Just a note, it appears Hurricane Andrew was in 1992:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/satellite/satelliteseye/hurricanes/andrew92/andrew.html
I lived in the Fort Walton Beach area at the time and my family got caught in a downpour when it came over the gulf. I agree with one of the other comments, the graph needs to include 2005 to 2009 so we don’t get caught misleading as well.
I don’t know about these prosecutions. What exactly are they to be charged with under criminal law? Scientific fraud is not a criminal offence in England and Wales. Even if it was, it would be unenforceable. The only thing is this FOI offence, which as we’ve seen, is not an offence, because it is more than 6 months ago. So don’t hold your breath for any prosecutions. It’s clear though the CRU now has zero credibility and something has to give.
For example, last night on TV we had Channel 4 evening news showing an amusing song sung by M Mann puppets “Hide the decline” ! Then, even on the BBC’s “Question Time”, they invited on the old Tory chancellor Nigel Lawson specifically to advertise his climate skeptic organisation.
So something is changing. Perhaps they are trying to distance themselves because they know the game will shortly be up. Or perhaps there’s been a realisation the economy black hole cannot be filled whilst maintaining their lifestyles, unless there is a back-track on green legislation.
In the past, lot of snow, deep cold and freezing wind were sign of virgin, unspoiled climate. Today, lot of snow is because of global warming causing excessive evaporation, deep cold is because of global warming disrupting natural patterns (which is funny, it means warm patterns are natural, or not?) and freezing wind is, well, sign of climate change.
I would establish “tar and feather” price for climate pseudoscientists and journalists.
guys you better watch out:
“Osama bin Laden has warned of the dangers of climate change.
The Al Qaeda leader spoke in a new audiotape aired in part on Al Jazeera television today.
In the tape, bin Laden warns of the threat presented by global warming – but he also offered a solution.
The way to prevent temperatures from rising is to ‘bring the wheels of the American economy’ to a halt, he apparently said.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1247033/Now-Osama-bin-Laden-gets-worried-global-warming.html
This from a man that nobody knows if he’s warm enough to push up daisies (or poppies). The theater of the absurd goes on as usual.
AGW- the the theory that CO2 is going to cause a climate catastrophe- is a social movement that combines the nastiness of eugenics and the loopiness of UFOlogy, with a veneer of science.
When the history of this movement is written, it will be interesting to know how many bogus reports like the one deconstructed here were basically written by Greenpeace or the WWF, or other enviro extremist organizations.
Again, the hurricane table is from NOAA and the paragraph above reads “(2001-2010 has had seven so far.) “
Haven’t you heard?
War is Peace. Love is Hate. Warm is Cold.
😐
And the AGW said: “Let there be normal”, and there was normal. The AGW saw the normal and it was good.
I hate to clue these clowns, but you are dealing with a mathematically chaotic system. The Hurst number in chaos theory was developed by a guy who was measuring the degree of flooding of the Nile river. He found he could replicate it using a deck of cards with a periodic shuffle. The dimension of weather is less than 2. That means no second moments such as correlations, variances, etc. It also implies a finite memory. Every time the “shuffle” happens, the events prior to the shuffle have no bearing on the future. I will also point out that the “owl eyes” or strange attractors were discovered by Lorenz at MIT trying to do weather prediction.
It will be hopeless to educate the public on the fact that the probabilities of events associated with weather follow a Pareto-Levy distribution. The public at large is innumerate (see the book “Innumeracy” by Paulos) and thus not capable of rational decision making on anything more than perhaps some of their bodily functions.
I wonder if their journalism degrees were written in crayon. The writing of Eilperin & Fahrenthold exhibits the gullibility, professional laziness and faux intellect we have come to expect in the MSM.
In the news paper article:
“Richard Somerville, who was a lead writer of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2007 report, said the public needs to grasp that it is important to reduce carbon dioxide quickly because it stays in the atmosphere for centuries.”
What!?! Help! Even I can find evidence of C02 turn over-see C14 variant of CO2 decline over 25 years-note is a log scale.
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/epubs/ndp/ndp057/ndp057.htm#appa
Sorry-not log scale-v small writing!-just to stop some zealot picking fault!
Juraj V. (05:06:16) :
Two years ago they were jumping up and down about the wind & cold and rain dispappearing because of too much C02. Now they are all in a bother over the wind & cold and rain appearing because of too much C02. Lay off the bubbly.
And that silly drought index map: Picking the cherries before they have ripened. Winter is only 1/2 over, but what that map says is they have decided to cancel winter as of Jan. 26th. Funny thing, but our water resource conservation district did much the same thing. Doom & gloomed the recent plentiful rain & snow into another rate hike.
JohnH (23:34:09), that was an interesting read. The comments were almost 100% anti-AGW. These types of articles used to have a balanced set of replies but not any more. I’d say the tide has turned in your neck of the woods.
NWF. National Wild Falsehoods
OT, but I can’t help myself. Obama has just ordered the federal government to reduce its carbon emissions by 28%. I can’t decide if I like this idea. There is something very gratifying about the idea of the federal government coming to a grinding halt. On the other hand, I can imagine this government using Obama’s new directive as an excuse to burn dollar bills outright.
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2010/01/obama-orders-federal-government-to-clean-up-its-pollution/1
I hope there is a some sort of tracking and reporting system. I would like to see their progress toward this goal. LOL
“Global warming will bring more extreme heat waves. By the 2080s and 2090s, many parts of the country will have more than two months each year with 100-degree weather if global warming emissions are not curbed.”
Would those “many parts of the country” be Pheonix, Las Vegas, El Paso, Las Cruces, etc.?
This sort of reminds me of one of Joe Romm’s claims that in a certain number of years 50% of the Southwest would be desert! Apparently, I was confused, growing up (at various times) in the Chihuahuan desert, Sonoran desert, and Owyhee desert. Silly me.
This would have had more credibility id the models had predicted this when the first IPCC report came out. Now these scientist are making it up as they go along – in other words they haven’t a clue.
Perhaps CO2 is only a part-time GHG?
dear friends ,
for all co2 pathogists there is appearing hope on the horizon . According the latest scientific news nuclear fusion is becoming more and more within our reach and may be in 10 to 20 years time we are able to tap all our energy from this source ……. Then CO2 will start to be in short supply and this will require control by the politicians . I strongly believe that the scientists are not the real problem . Our real problem are the mighty and powerful politicians especially from the left wing eager to control the lives of others and trying to enslave the average citizen . The CRU – guys are merely puppets exploited by politicians against nice fees . Shall they now declare januari the hottest month on record ? From their point of view this is true , for them this januari was absolutely the hottest month ever . Why is Obama so quiet about Climategate ?
The NWF “climate scentist” has an impressive CV. She has a PhD in atmospheric chemistry – She certainly could have been a climate scientist… But she did not pursue an academic or professional career as a climate scientist. She’s a professional environmental activist. None of her “publications” are on climate science… They are all on policy.
Her CV lists this as one of her National Academies publications…
The publication doesn’t list her as an author or contributor. She was a member of the National Research Council staff at the time. Her position was “Senior Program Officer”… A glorified file clerk.
Her only peer-reviewed publications are…
Neither of which has anything to do with CLIMATE SCIENCE. Papers about air quality are not CLIMATE SCIENCE. Papers about how we talk about climate change are idiotic and are not CLIMATE SCIENCE.
Just reading that report I get a “tingle up my leg” no, it’s down, and it’s sue to setting at
teh computer too long and too much Coffee…
Just reading that report I get a “tingle up my leg” no, it’s down, and it’s due to setting at
the computer too long and too much Coffee…
spellchecker’s off and brain non- functioning more coffee?
“The western United States has actually been seeing record snowfall in recent years, not “rapid declines” as claimed by NWF.”
Not according to the NSIDC –
http://nsidc.org/sotc/snow_extent.html
“The 28 year trend in snow extent derived from visible and passive microwave satellite data indicates an annual decrease of approximately 1 to 3 percent per decade with greater deceases of approximately 3 to 5 percent during spring and summer. Precipitation in regions of seasonal snow cover appears to be constant or increasing slightly in some locations over the same time period, which suggests that diminishing snow cover is the result of increasing temperatures. One region where the snow appears to be diminishing rapidly is the Western United States, especially in spring when the duration of snow cover has been decreasing by 2-3 days per decade (see blue-colored areas in the Spring Duration figure). This satellite-derived trend agrees with direct measurement of snow depth and extent on the ground (Mote et al. 2005).”
The Mote et al paper is here:
http://www.cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/moteetalvarandtrends436.pdf
“Snow course and SNOTEL measurements of spring snowpack, corroborated by a physically-based hydrologic model, are examined here for climate-driven fluctuations and trends during the period 1916-2002. Much of the mountain West has experienced declines in spring snowpack, especially since mid-century, and despite increases in winter precipitation in many places. Analysis and modeling shows that climatic trends are the dominant factor, not changes in land use, forest canopy, or other factors. The largest decreases have occurred where winter temperatures are mild, especially in the Cascade Mountains and Northern California. In most mountain ranges, relative declines grow from minimal at ridgetop to substantial at snowline. Taken together, these results emphasize that although the Pacific Decadal Oscillation has played some role in fluctuations in the region’s SWE, the West’s snow resources are already declining as Earth’s climate warms.”
The National Wildlife Federation’s concern about milder winters disrupting ecosystems seems to be justified on this basis.
Douglas DC
Perhaps you need a visit to the ‘spin-doctor’ who crafted this article…
Icarus,
If NSIDC says it, it must be true. Like director Mark Serreze predicting an ice free north pole in 2008. Or their forecast for a record minimum in 2008.
http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/200805_Figure4.png
This article contains links and graphs directly from the Rutgers University snow labs showing increasing autumn/winter snow extent in the Northern Hemisphere. It was also linked to in the current article
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/10/second-snowiest-december-on-record-in-the-northern-hemisphere/
Several desperate reports are being hurried out there following climategate, the collapse of Copenaggin, disgrace of IPCC, all backdropped by freezing snowy weather. What we are seeing here in this is the physiology of a dying beast. The real anatomy of “D”. I noticed for the first time on the streets of Ottawa, Canada, young Greenpeace boosters with sad little thwatches of literature and sign-up forms. I believe we will be blitzed by WWF, NWF and the rest as the funds dry up for these once naive idealists now turned charlatans. The terrible cold is because of global warming – gad, how stupid do these people think everyone is?
Steve Goddard (09:33:09) :
Icarus,
If NSIDC says it, it must be true. Like director Mark Serreze predicting an ice free north pole in 2008. Or their forecast for a record minimum in 2008.
http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/200805_Figure4.png
This article contains links and graphs directly from the Rutgers University snow labs showing increasing autumn/winter snow extent in the Northern Hemisphere. It was also linked to in the current article
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/10/second-snowiest-december-on-record-in-the-northern-hemisphere/
Thanks for your comments. However, we are talking about observations, not predictions, and the observations are supported by independent papers (e.g. Mote et al). Also, the current article doesn’t cite any data supporting an increasing trend in snow extent – it only talks about isolated data points (e.g. the recent cold snap). One or two weeks of chilly weather in part of the Northern Hemisphere does not constitute a trend on decadal scales, and as we all know the planet is getting inexorably warmer, not cooler.
Icarus,
The current article says “This is highly misleading. As reported earlier on WUWT” – with a link to http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/10/second-snowiest-december-on-record-in-the-northern-hemisphere/
If you follow the link in you will see the references to the raw data showing that autumn/winter snow cover is increasing.
I don’t know where you hang out, but in the places I spend my time (Europe and the US) temperatures have been declining in recent years.
I will never understand why people even watch or read MSNBC its absolute agenda drivin garbage.
“Steve Goddard (10:10:43) :
Icarus,
The current article says “This is highly misleading. As reported earlier on WUWT” – with a link to http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/10/second-snowiest-december-on-record-in-the-northern-hemisphere/
If you follow the link in you will see the references to the raw data showing that autumn/winter snow cover is increasing. ”
Overall I see a declining trend here:
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=0&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=12
Do you?
“I don’t know where you hang out, but in the places I spend my time (Europe and the US) temperatures have been declining in recent years.”
How recent is ‘recent’?
Here is a link to a news item about a new article in Science:
“Slowing Rise in Global Temperature Linked to Declining Stratospheric Water Vapor”
http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2010/0129sp_vapor.shtml
Icarus (08:22:46) :
“The western United States has actually been seeing record snowfall in recent years, not “rapid declines” as claimed by NWF.”
Not according to the NSIDC –
“The 28 year trend in snow extent derived from visible and passive microwave satellite data indicates an annual decrease of approximately 1 to 3 percent per decade with greater deceases of approximately 3 to 5 percent during spring and summer. Precipitation in regions of seasonal snow cover appears to be constant or increasing slightly in some locations over the same time period, which suggests that diminishing snow cover is the result of increasing temperatures. One region where the snow appears to be diminishing rapidly is the Western United States, especially in spring when the duration of snow cover has been decreasing by 2-3 days per decade (see blue-colored areas in the Spring Duration figure). This satellite-derived trend agrees with direct measurement of snow depth and extent on the ground (Mote et al).
You may be having difficulty with reading comprenhension. The post refers to amount, not extent. The trend for precipitation in the US is increasing.
Robert Townshend
Many thanks for that great link to Australian climate history -I repeat a part of Chapter 17 below-it just shows that modern temperatures are nothing unusual; This should be read in conjunction with my earlier post of Thomas Jeffersons observations of a warming cklim,ate in the 1750’s
Observation of Watkins Tench
http://ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/t/tench/watkin/
December 1790-vicinty of Sydney
“But at Sydney, without constantly dressing the ground, it was in vain to expect them; and with it a supply of common vegetables might be procured by diligence in all seasons. Vines of every sort seem to flourish. Melons, cucumbers and pumpkins run with unbounded luxuriancy, and I am convinced that the grapes of New South Wales will, in a few years, equal those of any other country. ‘That their juice will probably hereafter furnish an indispensable article of luxury at European tables’, has already been predicted in the vehemence of speculation. Other fruits are yet in their infancy; but oranges, lemons and figs, (of which last indeed I have eaten very good ones) will, I dare believe, in a few years become plentiful.
Apples and the fruits of colder climes also promise to gratify expectation. The banana-tree has been introduced from Norfolk Island, where it grows spontaneously.
Nor will this surprise, if the genial influence of the climate be considered.
Placed in a latitude where the beams of the sun in the dreariest season are sufficiently powerful for many hours of the day to dispense warmth and nutrition, the progress of vegetation never is at a stand. The different temperatures of Rose Hill and Sydney in winter, though only twelve miles apart, afford, however, curious matter of speculation.
Of a well attested instance of ice being seen at the latter place, I never heard. At the former place its production is common, and once a few flakes of snow fell. The difference can be accounted for only by supposing that the woods stop the warm vapours of the sea from reaching Rose Hill, which is at the distance of sixteen miles inland; whereas Sydney is but four.* Again, the heats of summer are more violent at the former place than at the latter, and the variations incomparably quicker.
The thermometer has been known to alter at Rose Hill, in the course of nine hours, more than 50 degrees; standing a little before sunrise at 50 degrees, and between one and two at more than 100 degrees.
To convey an idea of the climate in summer, I shall transcribe from my meteorological journal, accounts of two particular days which were the hottest we ever suffered under at Sydney.
[*Look at the journal which describes the expedition in search of the river, said to exist to the southward of Rose Hill. At the time we felt that extraordinary degree of cold were not more than six miles south west of Rose Hill, and about nineteen miles from the the sea coast. When I mentioned this circumstance to colonel Gordon, at the Cape of Good Hope, he wondered at it; and owned, that, in his excursions into the interior parts of Africa, he had never experienced anything to match it: he attributed its production to large beds of nitre, which he said must exist in the neighbourhood.]
December 27th 1790. Wind NNW; it felt like the blast of a heated oven, and in proportion as it increased the heat was found to be more intense, the sky hazy, the sun gleaming through at intervals.
At 9 a.m. 85 degrees At noon 104 Half past twelve 107 1/2 From one p.m. until 20 minutes past two 108 1/2 At 20 minutes past two 109 At Sunset 89 At 11 p.m. 78 1/2
[By a large Thermometer made by Ramsden, and graduated on Fahrenheit’s scale.]
December 28th.
At 8 a.m. 86 10 a.m. 93 11 a.m. 101 At noon 103 1/2 Half an hour past noon 104 1/2 At one p.m. 102 At 5 p.m. 73 At sunset 69 1/2
[At a quarter past one, it stood at only 89 degrees, having, from a sudden shift of wind, fallen 13 degrees in 15 minutes.]
My observations on this extreme heat, succeeded by so rapid a change, were that of all animals, man seemed to bear it best. Our dogs, pigs and fowls, lay panting in the shade, or were rushing into the water. I remarked that a hen belonging to me, which had sat for a fortnight, frequently quitted her eggs, and shewed great uneasiness, but never remained from them many minutes at one absence; taught by instinct that the wonderful power in the animal body of generating cold in air heated beyond a certain degree, was best calculated for the production of her young.
The gardens suffered considerably. All the plants which had not taken deep root were withered by the power of the sun. No lasting ill effects, however, arose to the human constitution. A temporary sickness at the stomach, accompanied with lassitude and headache, attacked many, but they were removed generally in twenty-four hours by an emetic, followed by an anodyne.
During the time it lasted, we invariably found that the house was cooler than the open air, and that in proportion as the wind was excluded, was comfort augmented.
But even this heat was judged to be far exceeded in the latter end of the following February, when the north-west wind again set in, and blew with great violence for three days. At Sydney, it fell short by one degree of what I have just recorded: but at Rose Hill, it was allowed, by every person, to surpass all that they had before felt, either there or in any other part of the world.
Unluckily they had no thermometer to ascertain its precise height. It must, however, have been intense, from the effects it produced. An immense flight of bats driven before the wind, covered all the trees around the settlement, whence they every moment dropped dead or in a dying state, unable longer to endure the burning state of the atmosphere. Nor did the ‘perroquettes’, though tropical birds, bear it better. The ground was strewn with them in the same condition as the bats.
Were I asked the cause of this intolerable heat, I should not hesitate to pronounce that it was occasioned by the wind blowing over immense deserts, which, I doubt not, exist in a north-west direction from Port Jackson, and not from fires kindled by the natives. This remark I feel necessary, as there were methods used by some persons in the colony, both for estimating the degree of heat and for ascertaining the cause of its production, which I deem equally unfair and unphilosophical.
The thermometer, whence my observations were constantly made, was hung in the open air in a southern aspect, never reached by the rays of the sun, at the distance of several feet above the ground.”
Icarus (10:21:32) :
What I see is 2002-2008 repeating 1985-1989.
In 1989 the reversal started as it has in 2008, but notice how much more vigorous the Winter snowfalls have been over the last 8 years compared to 80/81.
Icarus,
Here is a good read.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/23/sanity-check-2008-2009-were-the-coolest-years-since-1998-in-the-usa/
Temperatures in the US and Alaska have declined significantly over the last decade. Same for Europe, which is having the coldest winter in many decades after several cool summers and a cold winter last year.
Steve Goddard (23:39:22) : Poor guys, that’s like the SOMA of Huxley’s “A Brave New World”…
Who knew “Global Whatever” could actually change the orbit and axis of the earth?! Somebody better notify Punxsutawney Phil.
“spring arrives 10 to 14 days earlier than it did just 20 years ago.”
It is not Climate Change but Weather Change.
Talk about wacky! The NWF warns if we don’t reduce our CO2 there won’t be enough snow for our snowmobiles. Of course we have to stop using snowmobiles to reduce our CO2.
Icarus,
It looks to me like Autumn/Winter anomalies have been positive recently, and Spring/Summer anomalies have gone negative.
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=12
The St. Francis Dam collapse and flood was human error, not weather related. After they designed and started building they raised the dam by ten feet, then another ten feet, enlarging the reservoir from 30,000 acre feet to 38,000 acre feet without making the base of the dam wider. It had cracks and leaks throughout its short existence (built 1925-26, collapsed March 12, 1928) yet no one did anything until the dam did it itself. A good source of information with photos is at http://www.sespe.com/damdisaster/
Dr. Dave (21:31:45) :
I grew up on Lake Michigan. It NEVER freezes over. AGW only works in one direction (theoretically) – it WARMS. There is nothing in the theory to suggest it can trigger cold weather by magically upsetting Gaia.
it will freeze over occasionally, but if it does that proves the planet is warming!
lake effect snow last about 6 weeks.
cheers!
About two years ago I reported in this blog very mild winter conditions close to the Baltic Sea. I was told that the next winter (2008/2009) would still be mild (what was true) and the one we are having now – very cold (what has proven to be very much true again). Is it possible that anyone here with such global knowledge could comment on the winters at the Baltic Sea – for how long will the colds last this year and what are the predictions for the next years?
The Fates smirk when mortals talk that way.
Can you imagin if the 1930’s dust bowls took place in the last 10 years; what do you think the headlines would be? What would the National Wildlife Federation say for just 1 year of a dust bowl type event let alone a decade? The more they scream and deceive the more sceptical I become.
red wisse (07:41:37) :
dear friends ,
for all co2 pathogists there is appearing hope on the horizon . According the latest scientific news nuclear fusion is becoming more and more within our reach and may be in 10 to 20 years time we are able to tap all our energy from this source
If we are going to get fusion power deployed in the next 10 or 20 years it is not going to come from gigantic lasers or ITER like devices.
It will come from small fusion experiments. Things like FRC, Focus Fusion, General Fusion, or my favorite – Polywell Fusion. And the best part about Polywell? We Will Know In Two Years or less.
kzb (04:50:57) :
I don’t know about these prosecutions. What exactly are they to be charged with under criminal law?
conspiracy:
An agreement by two or more persons to commit a crime, >fraud<, or other wrongful act.
From the Washington Post:
“…it is important to reduce carbon dioxide quickly because it stays in the atmosphere for centuries.”
The link below shows most research puts CO2 residency time in the atmosphere at below 15 years and none put it at above 25 years.
http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c0120a5e507c9970c-pi
more contrary rebuttals below:
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/ef800581r
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V12/N31/EDIT.php
————
“Harsh winter a sign of disruptive climate change, report says”
So what caused the harsh winters of the mid-1800s?
“Bad weather, greed, and technology combined to end the great cattle drives. Especially harsh winters in the mid-1880’s killed tens of thousands of cattle trying to forage on the open range. ”
http://faculty.chass.ncsu.edu/slatta/cowboys/essays/front_life2.htm
In regard to the Science article: “Slowing Rise in Global Temperature Linked to Declining Stratospheric Water Vapor” cited above, (10:23:13, 29/01/2010) : I wonder if the water vapor decline in the stratosphere after Y2000 might be due to reduced military flights at those altitudes after the end of the cold war – probably not.
(We’ll see if you have the integrity to post this comment. I typically don’t see anything but sycophantic denialist “amens” here when someone links me to this site, but maybe I’m wrong.)
What a sad serving of denialism this blog post is. First of all, all the talk about lots of snow being some kind of refutation of anthropogenic global warming is a denial of physics. When you have more energy in a system, it naturally speeds up the evaporation-condensation-precipitation cycle. THAT has been specifically predicted by the climate science community – 97% of which is in agreement that we are driving that increase in energy.
To the second part of this article, which is the cold temperatures that certain areas of human-inhabited earth are experiencing, well, in THAT respect the article was misleading. But in the direction OPPOSITE to the one you are arguing. According to temperature anomaly data, December and January so far (at least as of 1/10/10) was actually WARMER globally than normal. That’s because while N. America, Europe and parts of Asia have been in the deep freeze… the Arctic, Africa, Australia, southern Europe, the middle east, other parts of Asia have been WARMER than normal.
So it hasn’t even BEEN a cold December-January. Not if you can see further than your local community.
I recommend everyone here to read this blog entry from the Washington Post’s Capitol Weather Gang. Check out the temp. anomaly maps. You’re in for a surprise.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/01/cold_weather_in_a_hot_climate_1.html
Mark,
All the climate models predicted that the western US would receive less snow, and the NWF report reflected that belief. Perhaps you should voice your theory over at RC instead of here, since you disagree with the climate science community?
My “neighborhood” of cold temperatures this winter is very large. It includes the US, Alaska, most of Europe, Siberia, Mexico, Brazil, Antarctica, Bolivia, Peru, southern Africa, etc. It does not include the very warm area of ENSO ocean which is driving the global “average temperature” up.
I believe we are on the edge of a tipping point where more and more people will begin to realize that climate change is primarily natural rather than caused by man. If the CRU ‘scientists’ had real evidence of an impending man-made climate catastrophe, I do not think they would have tried to deny the existence of the well known Medieval Warm Period or gone to such great lengths to deny critics access to their data.
Oh man. That’s a map of odd-ball lies, not weather.
I grew up in Alaska. Born there in 1975. As far back as I can remember the Iditarod has always started in Anchorage, they run out to Eagle River then truck the dogs to Wasilla to start the real race. They’ve always had to truck snow into Anchorage for the ceremonial start because Anchorage is a city, they plow the snow away all winter. The starting point has never moved and is not moved now, see it yourself on the official website: http://www.iditarod.com/calendar/
By pure coincidence I am now in Centralia, WA, which is also on that Map’O’Lies. Yes we flooded last year, and the year before that.. because the levees broke. Same reason New Orleans flooded. Happens. They’re still not fixed in Centralia and we’re extremely lucky we didn’t flood this year. Of course it rains a lot, that’s normal. It’s raining right now. Washington is famous for it. Duh.
OMG this global warming nonsense drives me absolutely insane with anger.
Anyhow great article as usual. Wattsupwiththat.com keeps me sane. 🙂