From the “weather is not climate” department. 815 new snowfall records, 304 low temperature, and 403 lowest max temperature records were set this week.
Here’s a summary:
| Record Events for Sun Dec 6, 2009 through Sat Dec 12, 2009 | |
| Total Records: | 2601 |
| Rainfall: | 992 |
| Snowfall: | 815 |
| High Temperatures: | 36 |
| Low Temperatures: | 304 |
| Lowest Max Temperatures: | 403 |
| Highest Min Temperatures: | 51 |
Data from NOAA via the HW map generator
UPDATE: Puzzled by the single odd record high temperature in West Texas of 80F in Sheffield, TX on Dec 9th, I called the NWS office in Midland/Odessa, TX to ask about it today (Monday). The meteorologist on duty was very helpful. While he first throught it may by a typo, perhaps a 3 that got turned into an 8 on a report, a review of the synoptic conditions that day revealed some very strong southerly winds ahead of the Arctic cold front that day. At a pass in the Pecos, winds were clocked at 112mph. Thus it appears that this station go a brief benefit of some very strong warming southerly wind.
I’ve seen this effect happen before. In fact it can result in a record or near record high temperature being achieved on the same day as a record or near record low temperature if the front is moving fast enough and has a strong temperature gradient.
The record high there does not appear to be in error. – Anthony
Hmmmm, kinda reverses the 2-1 high temp to cold temp records argument eh?
Make Love
Not Warmed Graphs
And yet this evening on some godforsaken network, Nina Totenberg claimed this is the warmest decade in recorded history. I wonder how she reconciles 2,600 cold and snow records just last week alone with her pseudo-scientific theology.
OK, All together now,
IT’S JUST WEATHER!!!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Give the record cold in the NA record for this year, I am certain that the GISS folks are working overtime fixing the African, Siberian and Asian station records to make sure 2009 is the warmest ever year.
“Weather is not climate”
The WMO certainly makes a fuss about weather, pages 4 and 5 map of the world:
http://www.wmo.int/wcc3/documents/1039_en.pdf
“Some places in Turkey experienced their coldest January nights in nearly 50 years…”
You ain’t seen nothin yet, have a look at good ol Copenhagen LOL
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html
I live in that little blue dot in NE Ohio: Ashtabula, OH. I have no idea where they’re getting 0.7″ from! (If you drill into the NOAA site, it says the previous record of 0.5″ was broken with 0.7″).
We had 6-8″!!! Schools were closed. See for yourself:
http://www.wkyc.com/news/local/news_article.aspx?storyid=127030&catid=3
http://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=142874&id=75051066976&l=6b0bf85e02
This, of course, will be translated by James “The Weather Clown” Hansen into the second or third warmest since the year 1. And he will have a graph to prove it. Just like the January that set 3,000 cold records became the warmest in history.
Don’t you know?
It’s now called “Climate Change” not “Global Warming”.
That way, no matter what happens –
Anywhere in the world –
It can be claimed as proof.
No religion has ever had it so good.
Ya, and we are at the head of the cold front with -46C in Edmonton. 10 degrees below the last record! Which was set last year 🙁
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/opinion/blogs/Edmonton+breaks+weather+record/2336460/story.html
Edmonton breaks record by 10 degrees – 13 Dec 09 – “To break a temperature by 10 degrees is very exceptional,” said Environment Canada meteorologist Pierre Lessard. It was colder in Edmonton Sunday than anywhere else in North America.
Sunday also marked the coldest Dec. 13 in Edmonton’s history, said Lessard.
Environment Canada recorded a frigid -46.1 C, or -58.4 C with wind chill, at the Edmonton International Airport at 5 a.m., Lessard said. The old record of -36.1 C was set last year.
h/t Not by Fire but by Ice
Back to the ’70s.
Ya missed me by the thickness of a few degrees. Nobody was amused here, though, as we didn’t set a record. It was bone-chilling cold enough.
I’d like to think that the worst of the cold is over, but this was only early December, and my weather history says flip a coin for heads-no more, tails-
you get another one worse than the 1st one.
Yes, it’s just weather. All of it. 1910’s ice-age scare, 1930’s heat scare, 1970’s ice-age scare, 2000’s AGW scare, and the 2010’s freezer burn scare.
Give the knuckleheads a few more years of this, and they’ll be crying their eyes out over Global Colding.
Even though it’s only weather the Edmonton International Airport beat the previous Dec 13th record by 10℃ hitting a low of -46.1℃. Interestingly the previous record was set in 2008 at -36.1℃. I can hardly wait for winter to start 🙂
And in SE Australia, with a week to go till the solstice (southern hemisphere summer) they managed to get some snow. But that’s just weather, don’t you know.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/a-snowy-dusting-in-victorias-summer/13262
Sleet in Copenhagen on Tuesday and snow on Friday and Saturday. Blast the conference is ending Thursday. But they have changed the forecast thrice in as many days – so lets hope they get snowed under.
http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/regionaludsigten/kbhnsj.htm
And the Northern hemisphere is looking pretty white here:
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif
You say its cold, I say its hot.
It does not matter what you say because I have control of the “con” sensus
I saw John Stossel’s Global Warming show on Fox last Thursday. It was very good but I hope he has Anthony on his show sometime soon. I want to see Anthony explain why the NASA/GISS/NOAA temperature data are bogus. As we know, Anthony’s surfacestations.org site reveals that 85% of the stations are not to siting specifications so how on earth can NASA/GISS/NOAA claim their reports are accurate?
If you think about it, the data is so bad now that we just better start over completely, so everyone will really be getting records for a while.
If it’s cold, it’s just weather. If it’s warm it’s an indication of WARMING.
Not having one’s cake and eating it, by any chance?
Would this be a good time to adopt a pet penguin? They’re soooo cute!
I’d adopt a polar bear but my landlord says I can’t keep one here.
Leon Brozyna (21:48:18) :
Yes, it’s just weather. And that means when it’s cold somewhere, it’s often hot somewhere else. Here in Melbourne, just near that mountain top where it snowed, we had our hottest November average, by 6C, which is huge for a monthly average. Beat the record by 2C. And we’re having a hot year. Wednesday’s forecast is 39C.
I just read a funny comment over on Zero Hedge…
Those who say Climategate is nothing should from henceforth be known as “Climategate Deniers.”
Watching the Gemanids in Manitoba, it is super clear — always nice and clear when it is cold like this (-28 atm).
Oh, but please you guys in Edmonton, don’t include wind chill in temperature measurements! I think I hate the wind chill adjustment almost as much as the warming adjustments. Can’t we all just be happy the way we are? : )
The meteors are worth a look if you are rural, clear, northern and night — they originate in Gemini (between Orion and the Big Dipper), but are streaking pretty much anywhere in the sky.
Good Grief! How many guys from Edmonton watch this site?
BTW was it cold or what! I was out at about midnight last night you don’t know bone numbing cold till you’ve felt -40 with out a wind chill!
Here’s the difference between +40C vs -40C. If you are outside in+40C after 15 minutes you are hot sweaty and thirsty, in -40C you’re dead.
warmers better start praying for sunspots 😉
Simple. Those are the effects of strong winds from the north which are in turn an indirect effect of previous warming. You are going to see all kinds of extremes. (Kidding this time.)
They may have missed some records. I thought the lack of rainfall records broken was strange, what with all the slippery stuff falling this last week.
http://www.mydesert.com/article/20091208/NEWS09/912080319/Record-rainfall-could-be-followed-by-second-storm-Thursday
“According to the National Weather Service, 1.12 inches of rain was recorded at the Palm Springs International Airport as of 8 p.m., surpassing the previous 1992 record of 0.90 inches on the same day.”
http://www.ledger-enquirer.com/news/breaking_news/story/942599.html
“The record came at midnight Saturday after more than 2 inches fell during the day.
The recent rains have pushed the city’s total to 73.63 inches since Jan. 1, according to the National Weather Service office in Peachtree City, Ga. That breaks the previous mark of 73.22 inches set in 1964.”
http://www.delmarvanow.com/article/20091210/NEWS01/912100349
“More than 2 inches of rain fell on an already saturated Eastern Shore of Virginia…
December’s 4.28 inches already exceed the 69-year average of 3.42 inches for the month.”
http://sandiego.about.com/b/2009/12/08/record-rainfall-snow-blankets-county.htm
“In fact, it set a record as 1.38 inches of rain fell at Lindbergh Field, topping the previous record for a Dec. 7 of 1.15 inches, set in 1992, the NWS reported.”
It’s what kind of weather in what kind of years that matters, Leon.
And it matters when it happens.
Shifting winter into fall and late spring is a telling statistic.
Tells me what kind of a year it is.
Come of folks… you can’t believe this weather rubbish. The raw data need to be homogenised and have some value added before they can be taken seriously…
Anyone live near Sheffield, Texas where the lone red dot in Texas is? I’m wondering where that temperature station is located.
A bit nippy here in Seattle too… I see some red dots down in FL. Time for a trip to the keys…
“Young described the icebergs as uncommon, but said they could become more frequent if sea temperatures rise through global warming.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20091211/wl_afp/australiaantarcticaiceberg
Something tells me that this is just a local NH hemisphere event. All those snow records? Not at all indicative of a lack of warming. The warming is there. It is in the pipeline. The pipeline is just a little frozen at the moment.
The independent newspaper has the truth about sunspot activity (not)…
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/sunspots-do-not-cause-climate-change-say-scientists-1839867.html
NA is not the only place experiencing a bit of a chill, Sydney, Australia today is ~8c below average. But this is only weather of course.
Environment Canada recorded a frigid -46.1 C, or -58.4 C with wind chill, at the Edmonton International Airport
How much colder does it have to get before the CO2 starts to fall out of the air like snow?
REPLY: It is not possible on Earth, due to the low partial pressure of CO2 becuase of its low concentration. This has been proven by experiment right here on WUWT.
Am I mistaken in the thought that if CO2 was as strong a greenhouse gas as they claim it is, that it would be in winter time, when the H2O in the air is lowest should be where we would be seeing the most record high temperatures?
This should help everyone. Snow anomoly for all of the northern hemisphere.
The amount of blue (extra snow), is unusual and has been so most of this fall.
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2009&ui_day=347&ui_set=2
I know WUWT tracks Arctic ice anomoly. But this is fun too, especially when the Arctic is a bit low on ice still.
These kinds of extended sub-zero cold fronts may have been part of the oscillating ice damns in Canada that when broken, brought huge torrents of water down into the lower 48, flooding most of Washington, Montana, Idaho, and Oregon.
A side note, the rivers in Wallowa County are beginning to freeze so badly that they are rising above flood stage. One house near the river is stuck in a glassy ice yard that extends from the foundation to the fence. I have never seen that before.
Could we see a breakdown of these records by how years old the previous record was. If the globe has warmed yet 50+ year cold records are being broken then the climate has not warmed more than natural variability.
The first sign of any significant warming (ie. greater than natural variability) would be NO cold records at all.
Here is another sign of global warming…
The temperature at the Edmonton International Airport dipped to -46.1 C at its lowest point, smashing the -36.1 C record set in 2008.
http://www.metronews.ca/edmonton/local/article/396638–deep-freeze-shatters-temperature-records
All these recent articles showing an indication of cooling to come explains the “Circle of Commitment” (Circle the Wagons?) politics going on at Copenhagen.
They are trying to lock at least part of the world into their “New World Order” before the cooling becomes undeniable, even to the acolytes of their new religion.
(I once had a Politics Professor who said the simplest way to tell if a person was a Fascist was to ask about their view of the world. “If he wanted to construct a “New World Order” he was one, if he was happy with the current world order he was still sane.”)
There’s something wrong with NOAA’s “records”. Every time I look I find a problem. Looking at the current Ham weather map, it shows a record high min temp at Raystown Lake on 9 December of 43 degrees. That is probably wrong. Nearby stations are reporting 9 December lows of around 30F. The high temperature for 9 December in nearby Altoona was 44 so it looks like they might have got the min/max reversed or something.
NOAAs records are way screwed up.
Oh, and the above temperatures for Raystown Lake and Altoona are in Pennsylvania. That orange dot in south/central PA.
WMO:
Extreme storms and flooding
In January, 1.3 million square kilometres (km2)
in 15 provinces in southern China were covered
by snow. Persistent low temperature and
icing affected the daily lives of millions of
people who suffered not only from damage
to agriculture, but also from disruptions
in transpor t, energy supply and power
transmission.
In Canada, several all-time snowfall records
were set during winter, reaching more than
550 centimetres (cm) in many locations,
including Quebec City. In Toronto, it was the
third snowiest winter on record for the past
70 years. At the end of January, Prince Edward
Island was struck by one of the worst ice
storms in decades.
Sandy (22:47:27) :
mouse over the dots on map at link
http://mapcenter.hamweather.com/records/7day/us.html?c=maxtemp,mintemp,lowmax,highmin,snow
well here in chistchurch n.z i still have my heatpump on 2times a week and they say its summer . Today lighting and heavy hail in places air temp now 8.8c.
My 2009 – 2010 winter outlook, and why, link to all maps at bottom of comment.
One of the problems with the current models is the reference time frame is very narrow for initial conditions, and changes with in the past three days, a lot of times, will introduce presistance of inertia, to the medial flows, for several days, consistent with the actual flows, as the Lunar declinational atmospheric tides, make their runs across the equator from one poleward culmination to another.
Then as the tide turns and we have the severe weather bursts at declinational culmination, they get confused, or surprised, as the initial inertial effects reverse for about four days before the sweep to the other pole, that brings back the smooth flows, the models understand.
So that when the Lunar declination went to Maximum North on December 3rd, turbulence and shear introduced into the atmosphere, from the turning tide, (the models do not know about), surprised them with the usual couple of tornadoes. Now (12-13-09) that we are ~20 degrees South Lunar declination, the models have a full buffer, of five days of linear inertial movement, from the Moon’s trip South across the equator (12-09-09) and is slowing it’s movement.
Coming up on the Southern extent culmination, producing a secondary tidal bulge in the Northern Hemisphere, bringing us to the mid point of a 27.32 day declinational cycle (one of the four routine patterns that cycle on an 109.3 day period). This particular one (#1) that started back on Dec 3rd, has incursions of polar air masses that come down from Western Canada, through Montana and the Dakotas, to make up the Northern part of the atmospheric tidal bulge.
So I would expect to see a large invasion of cold dry air sweep almost all the way to the Gulf coast again, then the produced frontal boundary with the interesting weather, that includes change state intense precipitation. Freezing rain, where the warm over runs cold, and snow where the cold undercuts the more sluggish warm air, still moving North East by inertia alone, severe weather to form in that trailing edge of the warm moist mass, that gets over taken from behind by the polar air mass that tries to follow the tidal bulge back to the equator, which for the next 4 of 5 days powers up the cyclonic patterns generated by carolis forces, and finishes out as the Moon approaches the equator again.
Expect the same type of interaction again for a primary bulge production by the passage back North, culminating on 12-30-09, pumping in a solid polar air mass very consistent with the pattern we had on 12-03-09, (the North “lunar declination culmination”)[LDC], then (#2) the next Rossby wave / jet stream regime pattern, comes back into play with much more zonal flow, and air masses invading from the Pacific, (of the two sub types of) phase with lesser amounts of Gulf moisture entrainment in this one, more in the other #4.
The (#3) third 27.32 day pattern with polar air masses invading in from the Minnesota / Great Lakes area and sweeping out through the Eastern sea board, and mostly zonal flow out west, from 01-27-10 till 02-23-10, comes next.
The fourth 27.32 day cycle, that looks very similar to #2 but with much more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, usually has more hail and tornadoes associated with it than Pattern #4, and typically flows up Eastern side of tornado alley. Will be in effect from 02-23-10 through 03-22-10, and should produce the first big surge of severe tornado production, from about March 20th 2010, until about March 26 or later as the Next polar air mass cycle is coming out of western Canada, and should make for steep temperature gradients, and ion content differences.
Richard Holle
Link to site with the daily maps for the next 4 years.
http://www.aerology.com/national.aspx
It’s one of the paradoxical effects of Global Warming that, as the climate keeps getting warmer and warmer, the weather keeps getting colder and colder.
Heard a guy on the CBC saying the science of CO2 and climate change are long known (and settled), first in 1952 when President Johnston commissioned a large study on it. Didn’t mention it was thought to be driving cooling for most of that time, and got a complete pass from the interviewer of course.
That said the guy was a self described green advocate and scientist (not sure how he keeps those separate) and yet he said that the ‘catastrophe scenarios’ are basically very overstated. Also if he had one dollar to make the world a better place, he’d spend zero on climate change.
It seems to me there is a bit of a retreat from hysteria in both the ‘science’ and media. I think the worry is (besides the imminent failure in Denmark) that this may turn to a ‘cold fusion’ situation. Aka zero ‘climate change’ funding for 30 years plus. Seeing as there isn’t a lot of work in the public sector for people that bad at math and ethics (esp since the financial industry collapse) maybe they are looking for a soft landing.
Isn’t it wonderful that all the “raw data” is now computer adjustable to match the computer projections. Next year will be the hottest ever, it has already been inputed into the adjustments of the field records of weather to create the “raw data” climate temperature records.
actually;
The Ice Age great North American glaciar will build first on the Canadian shield and not in the Artic Ocean. Heavy snows cause Ice build up and not severe cold, as anyone who has lived in snow can tell you.
Neil Jones (22:52:54) : “They are trying to lock at least part of the world into their “New World Order” before the cooling becomes undeniable, even to the acolytes of their new religion.”
http://www.hoboes.com/FireBlade/Politics/nazis/
“The Nazi reign of terror began with false news reports on the Jews, Bohemians and Gypsies who were said to be arming themselves to overthrow the “New World Order” and Hitler demanded that all good people register their guns so that they wouldn’t fall into the hands of “terrorists and madmen”. Right wing fanatics of the “Old Order” who protested firearms registration were arrested by the S.S. and put in jail for “fomenting hatred against the Government of the German people”.”
Bishop Hill linked to this wonderful article.
The whole article is worth a read.
Bruckner8 (21:35:09)
Now where did that warming signature go?
‘I’ll look for you in old Honolulu,
San Francisco, Ashtabula,…’
Patrick Davis (22:26:33) : Yep, Sydney is cool today. I have to put a jumper (sweater) and slippers on today. When I was in high school here in the 70s I remember packing away any warm clothes in October and not needing them again until March. You didn’t need any warm clothes until autumn. But never mind. I’m sure Kevin-Kevin Rudd and Penny Wong will return us to “normal” weather patterns while he’s in Copenhagen 😉
Not the way I read it. It seems that it was first an increase in snow in the Rocky Mountains. That increases albedo and it cascades from there. Has anyone heard anything lately about the glaciers in Glacier park? I haven’t either. Seems they have gone quiet on that subject. That must mean they are increasing else we would still be hearing about it. Last information I can find is from the early 2000’s. There was a lot of press when the glaciers were shrinking … but nothing for the last 5 years. I take that to mean they must have stopped shrinking.
Thank You Thank You Thank You!!!
I’ve been waiting for my “Weather is not climate” fix for a while now!
I could see all the snow in the news. I knew it was cold, but the waiting is now over.
Gee, the more the “warmers” gather together, the colder it gets… Better not let AlGore visit CRU when Hansen is in town!
Of course these rare isolated events do nothing to disprove AGW. However, as seen in the comments here (h/t to Climate Depot), someone finding a blooming rose in their garden in Maine last weekend, a month later than two years ago, is unequivocal proof of global warming.
Yes, that was it, a rose. Nothing at all about soil conditions, siting, not even if it was the same plant, there was a blooming rose therefore there is warming.
Truly the comments there are fascinating, on a par with local news coverage of lethal car wrecks. These coffeehouse elites are entirely convinced they are perfectly right while the “deniers” are unscientific unwashed savages, not worthy of discussing the issues with as obviously the heathens are too ignorant to comprehend their superior logic. They also tossed in the obligatory denigration of Sarah Palin, of course.
Strangely they are blissfully unaware how these snobbish comments of theirs reflect how scientifically ignorant they themselves are. We simply must keep them from “saving these dumb beasts from themselves,” as apparently they cannot recognize the person staring at them from their own mirror.
We’re behind the times.
The scare now is Ocean Acidification, its been on 3 or 4 MSM outlets over the weekend, BBC Radio 4 news, and Daily Telegraph or Sunday Times (UK) (I can’t remember which and they have now gone for re-cycling) for instance.
Does this mean elements of the AGC/AGW crew are silently conceding that the science is not fixed?
Not related to the topic, but on the Google UK website they are indicating how impartial they are!
“New! Explore impact of climate change on Google Earth”
Nick Stokes (22:06:32) :
Leon Brozyna (21:48:18) :
Yes, it’s just weather. And that means when it’s cold somewhere, it’s often hot somewhere else. Here in Melbourne, just near that mountain top where it snowed, we had our hottest November average, by 6C, which is huge for a monthly average. Beat the record by 2C. And we’re having a hot year. Wednesday’s forecast is 39C.
Not to be too pointed about it, but:
How do you know you had the hottest November? We’ve seen lately that a lot of the temperature series have had their data ‘cooked’ and I vaguely remember a story about the Aussie BOM ‘recalculating’ all their history…
I’ll take the “picture of snow in the paper” over the “mystery meat thermometer stew” any day.
Frankly, until Aussie BOM publishes their RAW data, they have no warm average records of any kind. All they have is Yet Another Adjustment Binge. YAAB.
If you can show an unadjusted temperature from a well sited thermometer, I’d love to see the “warm record”. If all you have is YAAB Average, well, fantasies are nice, but I’ve got real cold to look at. It’s that white stuff falling out of the sky 😎
For insight into why your Aussie Average is an exercise in onanism, see:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/10/29/ghcn-pacific-basin-lies-statistics-and-australia/
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/10/23/gistemp-aussy-fair-go-and-far-gone/
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/11/01/new-zealand-polynesian-polarphobia/
and for the rest of the (NOT warming in the base data) Pacific Islands:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/11/13/ghcn-pacific-islands-sinking-from-the-top-down/
And from the parent “global anaysis” posting that holds these links:
The end of it all is that the entire Pacific Basin is substantially flat on temperatures. Hard to have “Global Warming” if the Pacific is not participating. Australia and New Zealand show warming, but only due to thermometer change artifacts. For New Zealand, it is one single cold thermometer: And when that one is deleted from the whole record, not just the last few years, New Zealand has no “Global Warming” either.
Hard to have “Global Warming” when the 1/2 of the planet that is the Pacific Basin is dead flat with only a small “ripple” as the PDO flips state every 30 or so years.
With that, I think what you ought to have said was that you were having: “record hot locations for November thermometers this year. Thermometer locations 6 C hotter than where they used to be!”
See, works much better that way. And more correct too…
A new forcast to boost morale of the warmists: Global warming will resume its upward climb again next year, UK Met Office predicted (12/10) at the UN Climate Conference in Copenhagen – forecasting that 2010 will be the hottest year ever recorded for the world. http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/next-year-forecast-to-be-hottest-on-record-1838184.html
It is known that also James Hansen made such prophecy: Given our expectation of the next El Niño beginning in 2009 or 2010, it still seems likely that a new global temperature record will be set within the next 1-2 years, despite the moderate negative effect of the reduced solar irradiance. Since 2009 will not give a global temperature record, 2010 will be the only chance to supply it.
Again a prophecy to verify…
Brrrrr, looks chilly over there. Maybe you should head for balmy New York if you live in the northeast.
Starting to turn cold here in the south of England. Expect we’ll be having some of what you’ve had in the next few days. Always seem to get US weather 5-10 days later.
Winter draws on.
Ah, you see all those red spots down on the Florida pan-handle? Well those are all the Rothera Point temperature measurements for the whole of the USA.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/13/frigid-folly-uhi-siting-issues-and-adjustments-in-antarctic-ghcn-data/
So, you see, I have just proved to you all that the USA has had one of the warmest December weeks on record. Another scientific investigation from Self Deception Enterprises Ltd, based near a university in East Anglia.
Job done.
Thanks Richard Holle for that very erudite comment, and the maps. I am going to surprise my son and family in Phoenix Az with a weather forecast for Christmas Eve.
No warming here on the southern coast of Natal; slight cooling in fact. Been raining 5 or 6 days a week for three months, moderate stuff rather than storms, and I should like an indication of when that is going to stop!
>>Edmonton International Airport beat the previous
>>Dec 13th record by 10℃ hitting a low of -46.1℃.
>>Interestingly the previous record was set in 2008 at -36.1℃.
Hey, that’s some trend. If we extend a straight line through those points, Edmonton will be at absolute zero within 23 years.
Impressive.
.
“photon without a Higgs (22:13:09) :
warmers better start praying for sunspots ;-)”
Prayers answered, two regions on the visible disk, one growing quickly:
http://gong2.nso.edu/dailyimages/img/jpg/iqa/200912/udiqa091214/udiqa091214t0844.jpg
JB Williamson (22:24:42) :
“The independent newspaper …”
How about “The co-dependent newspaper …”?
Looks like John Bull is headed for the same misery as Cousin Jonathan
“Snow on the way as Britain in grip of cold snap”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/6807288/Snow-on-the-way-as-Britain-in-grip-of-cold-snap.html
Noticable that the forecasts are not from the Met Office – presumably they couldn’t be dragged away from their Playstation 3.
debreuil:
“It seems to me there is a bit of a retreat from hysteria in both the ’science’ and media.”
The warm is turning.
RT @TRUTHINHISTORY Big Foot caught stiffing a hair salon after a full body shave. When asked why, he replied that global warming made him do it. #gwhoax #tcot
More propaganda.
“New! Explore impact of climate change on Google Earth”
In true treehugger style, I went out in the back yard and asked my trees what the story was. Answer: “We’re freezing our roots off!”.
We always seem to get the same “Mexican Food” forecast from the warmers every day “Chili today, hot tamale.”
Regarding the year as a whole, remember that November had record warmth in many places in the U.S. (don’t know about the rest of the world). September had record warmth after a relatively cool summer. OTOH, October had record cold and early snow. Note that we did not see CO2 bouncing up and down this year, so I will put this down as natural variation.
It’s climate change: any and all records can and should be blamed on man!
The only thing that can’t be blamed on man are average ordinary days.
After seeing references to raw data being changed, I decided to some checking of my own. Using the the av max temp raw data for Lismore, NSW, Australia, I found there had been changes when the data was used to create the official long-term temp and anomaly maps. The early raw data records have been ‘dumbed down’ as follows.
Temperatures prior to 1940 show a discrepancy of between 0.4c to 1.0C.
Temperatures from 1940 – 1979 show a discrepancy of about 0.3C.
Temperatures from 1980 are consistent with the raw data.
Thus when the max temperature and the anomaly graphs are produced they both show a continuous warming from 1910. When the raw data is plotted, there is no warming apparent. Some examples are:-
1919 – raw data av was 27.4C Dropped to 26.7C for official graphs.
1940 – raw data av was 26.4C Dropped to 26.1C for official graphs.
1980 – raw data av was 26.1C No change at 26.1C for official graphs.
2002 – raw data av was 26.5C No change at 26.5C for official graphs.
Is there any reason why they would do this?
OT I’ve heard 3 reports on the BBC in the last 24hrs that the world is coming to an end because all the CO2 will turn the oceans into battery acid and polar bears will have nothing to eat.
Talk about moving the peanut under the cup – so because it’s not warming, CO2 will cause this instead.
How convenient – especially given that recent ‘counter-intuitive’ bit of research last week about shells getting thicker in some sea dwellers when CO2 goes up.
Put down your coffee before reading this
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/14/british-wildlife-climate-change
Apparently the UK is about to be invaded by South American water primrose and African clawed crabs.
Expect another bad year for grapes in Greenland and northern England.
If any of these record cold temps are at urban sites, and are “the coldest for forty years” , then the natural variability has been enough to overcome forty years of Urban Heat Island effect …
Bulldust (22:22:05) :
Come of folks… you can’t believe this weather rubbish. The raw data need to be homogenised and have some value added before they can be taken seriously…
How else can one expect to skim a percentage off the top if one does not add a value to get a value added tax?
10% of nothing is still nothing.
E.M.Smith (01:25:31) :
How do you know you had the hottest November?
Well, I live here. I’ve lived here a long time. And it was damn hot.
But these guys aren’t using any fancy database. They base it on the local records.
Bishop Hill has noticed that none of the Climategate scientists have signed the Met Office petition.
I guess they are just absenting themselves but it does look peculiar if everything is hunky-dory
I listen to BBC radio on my way to work every morning. This morning I was listening to a report about increased tiger attacks, and I just wondered (as you do) if they were going to link it to climate change – just for laughs. Within 30 seconds of me thinking that they did! Good old BBC. I think we should have a list up on the right hand side of this website showing all the things that climate change is supposedly linked to – just for laughs!
Seems that they are having problems in Copenhagen. http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/walkout-triggers-copenhagen-breakdown-20091214-kses.html
1st Antarctic Report
Something in it for both sceptics and warmists:
http://www.awi.de/en/news/press_releases/detail/item/first_comprehensive_review_of_the_state_of_antarcticas_climate/?tx_list_pi1%5Bmode%5D=6&cHash=969c1fa829
The points for the warmists are qualified with the word “could”, whereas the points for sceptics are FACTS.
The report also says MODELS NEED IMPROVEMENT!
i wish I had the time to look at the Antarctic Report, but right now I just don’t. For those that do:
http://www.scar.org/publications/occasionals/acce.html
It’d would be interesting to compare the BBC summary to what is really in it.
From Rik Gheysens (01:30:30) :
Hansen – Given our expectation of the next El Niño beginning in 2009 or 2010, it still seems likely that a new global temperature record will be set within the next 1-2 years, despite the moderate negative effect of the reduced solar irradiance. Since 2009 will not give a global temperature record, 2010 will be the only chance to supply it.
Again a prophecy to verify…
——————-
…… or fabricate.
Will the CRU now announce that 2009 was both the hottest and coldest years on record?
A growing cold shoulder from east and west collides with a massive hot air front from Copenhagen.
A Climate journalist said,
“We have only a short time to save my job and must act NOW”
Latest news in UK
Copenhagen farce collapses as Africa walks out
http://toryardvaark.wordpress.com/2009/12/14/climategate-copenhagen-is-heading-for-collapse/
crosspatch (00:44:49) – I did find some recent data on Glacier park last year, off the top of my head, 20-30% of glaciers there showed advance. I might have posted a link to that somewhere – I do remember that last time I tried to find the data I failed. Start on wilipedia and follow a few glacier/ice age/sea level page entries. If I remember, I’ll have another trawl. Failing that, contact the glacier park people. There is definately research going in there, I think they have records for maybe 60 glaciers?
Roger Knights (02:22:56)
‘The Independent’ is undoubtedly one of the most misnamed newspapers in British history. It ranks alongside ‘Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’ for irony.
COP 15 suspended.
Hope this isn’t just part of the ‘Panto’
“LilacWine (00:12:11) :
Patrick Davis (22:26:33) : Yep, Sydney is cool today. I have to put a jumper (sweater) and slippers on today. When I was in high school here in the 70s I remember packing away any warm clothes in October and not needing them again until March. You didn’t need any warm clothes until autumn. But never mind. I’m sure Kevin-Kevin Rudd and Penny Wong will return us to “normal” weather patterns while he’s in Copenhagen ;-)”
Her Rudder is too small, and they will both crash and sink like the Titanic. Aus cooking the emissions books? Who’a thought that! Someone is on the make…
The BBC http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8411898.stm is reporting that the African nations have walked out on Copenhagen negotiations. Looks like the party is imploding.
“Negotiations at the UN climate summit have been suspended after the African group withdrew co-operation.
African delegations were angry at what they saw as moves by the Danish host government to sideline talks on more emission cuts under the Kyoto Protocol.
As news spread around the conference centre, about 200 activists responded with chants of “We stand with Africa – Kyoto targets now”.
It is unclear how matters will proceed now, though informal talks are likely.
Blocs representing poor countries vulnerable to climate change have been adamant that rich nations must commit to emission cuts beyond 2012 under the Kyoto Protocol.
But the EU and the developed world in general has promoted the idea of a new agreement. Developing countries fear they would lose many of the gains they made when the protocol was agreed in 1997.
Previously during this meeting – formally called the Conference of the Parties (COP) 15 – developing countries have accused the Danish organisers of ignoring their concerns.
“The president of the COP (Danish climate minister Connie Hedegaard) is absolutely committed to violate any democratic processes,” said G77 chief negotiator Lumumba Di-Aping as he explained the latest development. “
“Nick Stokes (04:02:48) :
E.M.Smith (01:25:31) :
How do you know you had the hottest November?
Well, I live here. I’ve lived here a long time. And it was damn hot.
But these guys aren’t using any fancy database. They base it on the local records.”
Human lifespans mean nothing in geological timespans. It may have been hot in *YOUR* time but “hottest ever”? I very much doubt that.
BBC – Climate negotiations ‘suspended’
Negotiations at the UN climate summit have been suspended after the African group withdrew co-operation.
I really do hope that the Copenhagen airport will freeze and close so the delegates cannot fly home.
I wonder how indigenous species came to be indigenous? Did they all evolve on location or did they immigrate? Funny how some biologists/reporters think that all species are supposed to be static. “Could be” is nice wording though.
El Nino induced heavy rains have arrived in So California on schedule. This could mean moderating temps for much of North American this winter season (I don’t think that would be such a bad thing after last week’s cold blast). On the other hand, 2009-2010 Winter for North America could be close to the 1976-1977 Winter. Remember, a fairly strong El Nino occured in 1976; but, the following 2 years saw extreme weather patterns (scorching hot summers and bitterly cold winters). The big difference between 1976 and 2009 was the PDO. The Great Pacific Climate Shift occured in 1976-77.
List of ‘Unsung’ Wildlife Affected by Climate Change Released
When the climate gets colder, what will happen to animals that thrive in warm climates?
Should we buy them coates? Or should we let them migrate?
@Mike D.
“And yet this evening on some godforsaken network, Nina Totenberg claimed this is the warmest decade in recorded history. I wonder how she reconciles 2,600 cold and snow records just last week alone with her pseudo-scientific theology…”
SImple. It could be freezing in the middle of summer now but it was ALWAYS COLDER earlier.
All our earlier weather records seem to have been ‘adjusted’ to ensure that, whatever the temperature, we will always be living in the ‘warmest decade’. I hope that all the published old records are being stored somewhere safe, because they will be destroyed if they do not match current thinking….
CLIMATE TALKS AT COPENHAGEN ARE SUSPENDED – BBC
COPENHAGEN, Dec 14 (Reuters) – The main sessions of U.N. climate talks in Copenhagen were suspended on Monday in a protest led by African nations accusing rich countries of trying to wreck the existing U.N. Kyoto Protocol.
“This is a walk-out over process and form, not a walkout over substance, and that’s regrettable,” Australian Climate Change Minister Penny Wong said of the action.
What worries me is that the ground in the Pac NW is frozen down 3-6 inches, and a warm front is quite likely to raise temps and precip back to above seasonal in 24 to 36 hours. Flooding is likely near the rivers.
@Doug in Seattle Well, this year has been the warmest in the past 365.25 days hasn’t it?
@ vukcevic
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8411898.stm
Mugabe is disappointed he will not get more money.
Barry Foster (04:13:29) :
Here’s some – well an awful lot actually 🙂
Another poster here kindly provided the info link.
http://plato-says.blogspot.com/2009/12/global-warming-causes.html
“Environment Canada recorded a frigid -46.1 C”. At first it didn’t really register with me how cold that is. For those of us who mainly speak Fahrenheit that’s minus 50F !!! Yeowee! That makes Michigan look downright tropical.
Pamela Gray (22:38:47) :
“A side note, the rivers in Wallowa County are beginning to freeze so badly that they are rising above flood stage. One house near the river is stuck in a glassy ice yard that extends from the foundation to the fence. I have never seen that before.”
Pamela-I have,-in the late 50’s and 60’s. The 1964 floods were,in part due to
a huge build up of river ice and then debris.Back in the “warm” 1930’s the old Mill pond at lower Perry (on 1-84 a couple of miles from La Grande, froze to the point
of the Grande Ronde river threatening the town of Perry,and most of North La Grande.
My Granpop was on a Dynamite crew that blasted it open-but it was touch and go for a while.I’d love to see how our greenie state would deal with that…
Mark.R (23:10:59) :
well here in chistchurch n.z i still have my heatpump on 2times a week and they say its summer . Today lighting and heavy hail in places air temp now 8.8c.
—————————————
The cooler weather in the USA has been attributed to negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (-PDO). But Russia, New Zealand and Australia are have below normal cooling also. It may be that the solar physicists who are saying prolonged cooling is coming, and not global warming, may be right.
>>Expect another bad year for grapes in Greenland
>>and northern England.
And lots of sour grapes from Copenhagen too !!
.
the opposite of NOAA December, January, and February (i.e., winter) forecast is happening.
2 1/2 months left to see if they got it right.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/images/winteroutlook_temp_300.jpg
—
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20091015_winteroutlook.html
List of ‘Unsung’ Wildlife Affected by Climate Change Released
ScienceDaily (Dec. 14, 2009) — The Wildlife Conservation Society has released a list of animals facing new impacts by climate change, some in strange and unexpected ways.
When the climate gets colder, what will happen to animals that thrive in warm climates?
Should we buy them coates? Or should we let them migrate?
As I recall, the saber-tooth tiger was a victim of climate change.
Mother Nature shows a middle finger to the AGW proponents .
“THE BLACKFEET INDIANS PREDICT THE RETURN OF ‘MANY GLACIERS’ TO GLACIER PARK…wide weather ‘extremes’ over the past 2,000 years since the tribe migrated from northeastern Asia to North America…the glaciers have both ‘advanced’ in Glacier National Park and ‘retreated’ literally dozens of times in the past couple of millennia…the glaciers in the park nearly ‘vanished’ 1,000 years ago during an extremely warm period with very little snow. The ‘peak’ of the number and size of the glaciers occurred during the 40-year period from 1710-1750 towards the end of the last ‘Maunder Minimum’…glaciers in Alaska and Norway are already advancing. Glacier Park may one day soon be seeing the return of “MANY GLACIERS,” as the Blackfeet predicted”
http://www.longrangeweather.com/ArticleArchives/BlackfeetIndians.htm
“Does this mean elements of the AGC/AGW crew are silently conceding that the science is not fixed?”
No it just means the’re going to switch to a new crisis, maybe excessively normal climate.
p gosselin 04:19:03 No time to review antarctic report
Me neither but I read their recommendations briefly. Almost all called for more readings,more sites,or more something.All of it meant-We want more grant money!
I hate not being able to trust my government, but I am beginning to have suspicions about everything they put out. Just look at the jobs saved baloney for 1 example. Thank goodness we have a growing number of great non-government sites like this to keep our faith up.
E.M.Smith (00:55:44) :
Gee, the more the “warmers” gather together, the colder it gets
But they can’t tell since they’re in toasty warm limos and $1000.00 a night hotels. They can only see the serfs shivering outside their tinted limo windows as they are on their way to their Gulfstream. It must be curious to them to reconcile global warming with shivering serfs in the snow. 😉
Record snowfalls and record low temperatures. Thankfully our genius government is working to fight global …warming?
Do you ever get the feeling our government is immune to logic?
Barry-
For problems caused by global warming, see:
http://clipmarks.com/clipmark/CDEC3237-E01D-42D1-A0D3-47FF4DD91206/
A search under “numberwatch” leads to all sorts of interesting reading material, for those with time on their hands…..
And a note to the moderators: I got a new computer and didn’t notice that the required “sender” information hadn’t been carried over. When I pressed “Submit”, I got an error message to that effect and MY ENTIRE MESSAGE HAD BEEN ERASED. I had to start over again, which has put me in a bad mood for part of the day. I won’t kick the cat, but I’d like a go at the person who laid ot that part of the website!
IanM
Mr. Alex (02:22:35) :
“photon without a Higgs (22:13:09) :
warmers better start praying for sunspots ;-)”
Prayers answered, two regions on the visible disk, one growing quickly:
Oh, those two pores I almost didn’t see them.
I meant something more like this
That snow is not real…Hide the snow!
fFreddy (03:45:40) :
If any of these record cold temps are at urban sites, and are “the coldest for forty years” , then the natural variability has been enough to overcome forty years of Urban Heat Island effect …
——————
Good point. It’s worse than we thought.
photon without a Higgs (06:28:28) : …they have a hidden sense of humor as:
http://www.noaanews…..=NO ACCURATE NEWS…☺
vukcevic (05:37:13) :
COPENHAGEN, Dec 14 (Reuters) – The main sessions of U.N. climate talks in Copenhagen were suspended on Monday in a protest led by African nations accusing rich countries of trying to wreck the existing U.N. Kyoto Protocol.
“This is a walk-out over process and form, not a walkout over substance, and that’s regrettable,” Australian Climate Change Minister Penny Wong said of the action.
—————————
What you just said Penny: “Blah, blah, blah, blah…”
I think you are all missing the point. We need to study the transferability of the Gore Effect. It would seem to me that when a group of warmers reaches critical mass, regardless of the location, immediate cooling is felt world wide. Initially only Al Gore himself had the ability to cast a localized chill but this now seems to have spread to his acolytes. If my hypothesis is correct then the obvious solution to warming is for us all to the church of Al Gore and the immaculate warming and start meeting often and in large numbers. Please send lots of money so that I can study this in depth.
Please note I already have several mathematical models to modify the data to reflect the correct result.
ralph (06:27:29) :
>>Expect another bad year for grapes in Greenland
>>and northern England.
And lots of sour grapes from Copenhagen too !!
———————-
Funny!!
And don’t forget ralph, it’s Copenhägen, not Copenhāgen. Only serfs say Copenhāgen.
OT, but the latest news from Hokemkookenhagen is that developing nations, a total of 135 countries including China and India are boycotting talks today. They don’t want the Kyoto protocol scuppered, which they fear is what is happening. http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5i9TuMrvrknh-ZXwqmZ2N-48kff3wD9CJ56880
As long as they fight, we’re safe.
Copenhägen, like Häagen-Dazs ice cream.
I had an email from somebody in Calgary today; having asked how they were enjoying their current ‘global warming’ over there. ‘Very cold’, ‘snow’, ‘-29’, apparently. It was bad enough in early October when we were there. It is a lot colder in Edmonton, even according to the BBC Ceefax weather reports.
As a lay person, in science terms, I originally began questioning AGW info when I began questioning the standardisation of siting, equipment, maintainence, etc in the collection of earth data after my curiosity was piqued by the contents of the released/hacked/stolen emails from CRU. So far, I have been frequently horrified by what is supposed to be ‘data-recording stations’ in the Pacific regions at least, and my suspicions of the morality of the CRU scientists and their associates has deepened more than a little. Perhaps the CRU’s data going off-line is a simple cock-up (their programming skills seemed rudimentary at best) but it certainly adds to my doubts.
On another note, the African delegates in Cop. have shown their hand – they obviously saw Cop as another opportunity for a big finacial top-up.
To the people of Edmonton, Calgary and Winnipeg.
Turn off your heating. You are killing the planet !
Sheffield Texas your thermometer is broke.
As I write this it is now (09:30 local) -42C at the Edmonton I’ntl Airport, a little South of town. The downtown airport is -32 so expect a correction to the I’ntl from the powers that be soon for the rural cold island effect.
I will stand with the GHCN and use my single data point in Florida to say the temperature for the entire United States is way above average.
It will be interesting to see how cold or unchanging the weather needs to be for people to stop believing, “it’s hotter every year, it’s hotter every year, it’s hotter every year.” If you repeat it enough, maybe you believe it?
Barry Foster (04:13:29) :
I listen to BBC radio on my way to work every morning. This morning I was listening to a report about increased tiger attacks, and I just wondered (as you do) if they were going to link it to climate change – just for laughs. Within 30 seconds of me thinking that they did!
The report on the BBC website says:
“Climate change is causing accelerated sea level rise and an increase in the salinity of the southern Sundarbans,” says Professor Pranabes Sanyal of Jadavpur University in Calcutta.
“That in turn is causing the migration of the tigers from the southern islands towards the north, close to the human habitation. That’s why we have this man-animal confrontation – and the confrontation is increasing.”
Which bit of that assessment do you dispute, and why? Can you be sure it’s not true?
photon without a Higgs (06:22:24) :
It may be that the solar physicists who are saying prolonged cooling is coming, and not global warming, may be right.
Interesting. Can you cite said solar physicists?
News flash. The opportunities for banana plantations and orange groves for Kansas and Missouri have been set back 100 years.
Of course the warmists will say thei was not only predicted but worse than predicted.
Where specifically did they post mid December predictions last summer?
If the Pine beetle survives this in the rockies, that means their blaiming consevatives on pollution and pine beetles is also down the tubes.
David Segesta (06:48:43) :
Record snowfalls and record low temperatures. Thankfully our genius government is working to fight global …warming?
Do you ever get the feeling our government is immune to logic?
Yes you have record low temperatures, but you have twice as many record high temperatures –
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2009/maxmin.jsp#
Logically, doesn’t this suggest that the government is right?
Anthony,
The link provided above in one of the other comments is useful:
http://mapcenter.hamweather.com/records/7day/us.html?c=maxtemp,mintemp,lowmax,highmin,snow
especially if you go to the tables for each type of record.
I was looking at The Weather Channel’s data for various cities a couple days ago, however, and saw several records in Colorado that are not shown in hamweather.com’s list. One of those was a low of -12 F in Fort Collins, CO on December 9 where the previous record was 2 F. (I would post the screenshot if I knew how.) That’s totally shattering the record.
Perhaps the stations used by the Weather Channel are not part of the NWS system reported on by hamweather.com. In any case a study of new record temperatures in time (and also vs. how old the previous ones were) could be very telling. A further comparison of any of any temperature data (and records) from stations outside of NWS/NOAA/GHCN/CRU etc. might also be very telling.
photon without a Higgs (07:21:25) :
“Copenhägen, like Häagen-Dazs ice cream”
Please don’t wander too far into America’s lack of language understanding.
København would be the right name.
ø being pronounced with as an “oe” sound not “oo”.
Either way ä is pronounced “ae” not “aa” in Scandinavian languages.
Häagen-Dazs being purely an American name contraption has nothing to do with northern European langauages.
Well don’t try and read anything into those dots. Anyone with a keen eye can see that that array od dots is at odds with the Sampling Theorem.
So a nice picture; but not useful; for reconstruction.
Icarus. I was making a point that everything seems to be the fault of climate change. Which bit of that didn’t you understand?
>> Icarus (09:15:18) :
Yes you have record low temperatures, but you have twice as many record high temperatures –
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2009/maxmin.jsp#
<<
Since that was the work of NOAA scientists, it was no doubt after they added in this:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/ushcn/ts.ushcn_anom25_diffs_urb-raw_pg.gif
Funny how the graph you cited follows roughly the same form.
Barry Foster (09:39:17) :
Icarus. I was making a point that everything seems to be the fault of climate change. Which bit of that didn’t you understand?
I understand your point, but climate change is inevitably affecting many natural systems, so isn’t that just what you would expect?
There is an ice road between Bayfield Wisconsin and Madeline Island on Lake superior. I suspect it will open a few months early. And the warmists are worried about a Northwest Pasasage.
Icarus (08:48:09) :
Icarus (09:15:18) :
Aw, aren’t we a little touchy today? Here’s the problem with the tiger assertion. When there is a man-animal confrontation involving predator animals, there is a simple solution. Shoot the animal. Why is that solution not employed with these tigers? But hey, I can’t even tell which islands are encountering such a dire dilemma in its tiger population because of rising seas from global warming, although I will venture a guess as to what is wrong with the article. It cites rising seas without actually showing sea rise in that area.
Logically, it does not suggest anything. See, there was a mass of cold records in the 50s, 60s, and 70s. There is a certain range associated with the climate of NA, so I wouldn’t expect that trend to continue onward unless the maximum end of the range and the minimum end of the range were exhibiting a trend downwards. Also, where would one find the data for that study to replicate the results?
Icarus (10:11:51):
“…climate change is inevitably affecting many natural systems, so isn’t that just what you would expect?”
Icarus, the issue isn’t climate change. The climate is always naturally changing.
Please get up to speed on the debate, which is over AGW.
Please show, through real world measurements, that a specific, measurable quantity of human-emitted CO2 causes a specific, measurable increase in temperature. Otherwise AGW is only a conjecture.
Are you game? OK, ready… set… GO!
…What? Oh, you have no empirical evidence for AGW? Sorry about that.
We are currently in our long term climate cycle like in the fall season is in our typical yearly weather cycle. If the leaves are turning their color, if there is a nip in the air and birds are gathering in flocks you can bet that winter is not far off. Any one who cannot read the longer term planetary climate signs that a more extended period of somewhat cooler weather may lie ahead is blind to the natural climate cycles of this planet. Yes warming will resume again since the planet is in the Modern Warming Period phase of the typical 1500 year planetary climate cycle that bottomed in 1600, but the warming will not resume for 2-3 decades. A cooler phase is about to start in 2010. The December 2009 cold spell is just the start. A similar cold event happened in the 2008/2009 cold winter. Here are just some of the signs.
Ocean SST’s are declining
The ocean heat content rise has leveled off and is dropping
AMO has peaked and is likely to go again negative or cool by January 2010 for an extended cool period now [typically 20 -35 years but it can fluctuate considerably before it stays negative for a nonger period]
WINTER NAO is headed for more negative periods like the 1960’s to 1980’s where 17 out 30 winters had negative NAO. In the 1960’s, 8 out of 10 winters had a negative NAO [December 2009 cold spell has a negative NAO]
PDO is heading for 30 year cool cycle and will go negative by early 2010[went negative/cool again Nov 2009]
A La Nina is possible in 2010 /2011 and more frequently during the next few decades
Lunar- solar tidal forcing clustering is predicted to grow as in past cool periods [more mixing of ocean surface levels due to more significant tidal forcing]. This will peak in 2030/2040/2050
The current moderate El Nino will be less warming than predicted due to the cool PDO in the Pacific. This has happened before.
Solar minimum continues and next 2 cycles are likely to be low in terms of sunspots
Solar wind is at a 50 year low level
What the AGW/IPCC supporting scientists are telling us that there will only be constant summer after the fall season. The world is in for a big surprise if they buy into this distorted climate science. The AGW science will be shown to be flawed for the entire world not only to see but to feel as well. Europe and the UK are likely to be cooler than last year despite the officical forecasts which predict warmer than normal . This is the likely pattern for many decades to come as the natural cycles seem to indicate .
Crosspatch: “Has anyone heard anything lately about the glaciers in Glacier park?”
I had the pleasure of driving through the park last summer. I don’t know what they are saying to scientists, but here is what they are giving to the tourists (from the Glacier Guide brochure):
VANISHING GLACIERS
In 1850, there were an estimated 150 glaciers in the park. By 1968, the number was reduced to around 50. Today, only 26 glaciers remain in the park, many of which are mere remnants of what they once were. Scientists predict all glaciers in Glacier National Park will be gone by the year 2030.
Icarus wrote:
Which bit of that assessment do you dispute, and why? Can you be sure it’s not true?
The dispute comes as to what is happening recently as to sea level. One of the areas now showing a decline recently in sea level is the southern Sunderbans area of the bay of Bengal, from:
http://www.slideshare.net/Ecotretas/sealevel-1792065
The CERN video on cosmic rays shows at:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/175641-climategate-revolt-of-the-physicists
every time there have been no sunspots over the past century, the sea has stopped rising. Can such a correlation be solely due to chance?
“…
High Temperatures: 36
…
Highest Min Temperatures: 51
…”
Well sure it might seem cold, but just look at the 36 High Temperatures and the 51 Highest Min Temperatures.
[With a little cherry picking] It’s clear that we are experiencing RUNAWAY GLOBAL WARMING I tell you!
“Spain on alert as snow falls”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8411761.stm
“Authorities in Madrid are warning commuters not to use their cars as snow hits the Spanish capital.
Other parts of Spain are also on alert, including Asturias, the Basque country, Cantabria, Barcelona, Tarragona, north of Burgos and Palencia”
How cold is it here in Alberta?
We have a native working for us, originally from the North West Territories.
He is complaining bitterly about how cold it is.
Its just not right, when an Inuit complains of the cold, 2000 kilometers south of his home.
Well anyone can see that this cold weather is just masking the coming thermocalypse. It’s in the, um, models. Yeah, the secret ones that the true believers use, that’s the ticket.
Hey! What about The Great White North! Edmonton (my old home town) was the coldest place on Earth on the weekend! -50c (or lower) with wind chill in many places in the Canadian prairies.
Coffee tossed out the window froze in a fraction of a second!
http://pathstoknowledge.net/2009/12/13/the-day-after-tomorrow-in-edmonton
debreuil (23:25:28) :
“Heard a guy on the CBC saying the science of CO2 and climate change are long known (and settled), first in 1952 when President Johnston commissioned a large study on it.”
Sticking an extra ‘t’ in the name is forgiveable. But the CBC guy should by now have heard about “Eisenhower.”
Just take it easy, folks. Its not important whether the science is rotten. Its just important to ACT;
I had no clue Mr. Blair had such rotten ideas;
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/copenhagen-climate-change-confe/6803921/Copenhagen-climate-summit-Tony-Blair-calls-on-world-leaders-to-get-moving.html
Snow for Copenhagen on Wednesday.
http://www.accuweather.com/world-forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&locCode=EUR|DK|DA012|COPENHAGEN&metric=1
I’ll bet they’ll play this as a sign from above that a new agreement will work. 🙂
Crosspatch, re Galciers:
http://www.nichols.edu/departments/glacier/Bill.htm was the most up-to-date dataset I found, it compares 1850-1950, 1950-1979 and 1979-2006. Crudely, the answer is (loss, maybe 2km), growth ~10%, loss ~10%. The loss in the recent period is more than the gain. No sign of a comprehensive update in the last 3 years – but given the speed at which ice moves, I’d postulate quite a slow response to any changes even if it does get colder.
pwl,
“Hey! What about The Great White North! Edmonton (my old home town) was the coldest place on Earth on the weekend! -50c (or lower) with wind chill in many places in the Canadian prairies”
Don’t you know, the new game in town is to count the NUMBER of low records against the number of highs, irrespective of how ccccold it actually is – brrrr.
Long Range forecaster Mark Vogan predicts worst cold outbreak of the current decade for the northern plains down to Florida near when December ends.
http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/2009/12/50-below-zero-air-too-close-for-comfort.html
He was predicting severe cold for Canada quite some time ago and got it right, but even he was amazed just how cold it got.
All of these records. Matter of perspective.
Are they coming from younger stations(half a century or younger)? Probably.
If they are also coming from older, established ones(close to century or more), then we are pushing extremes, at least in the current era of climate.
With all the moves, newer stations, and changes in general, are they truly records of extreme weather(weather not seen before)?
To all you guys in Edmonton, it’s sunny and warm down here in South Florida, not too late to make your hotel reservations for Jan/Feb.
If you actually believe AGW is not real, then why are you always trying to confuse the issue by publishing stories about WEATHER and not climate. Do you and your readers not yet know the difference?
REPLY: Despite your policy violation with an invalid email address (nospam@hotmail.com) from an IP in New York City, I’m leaving your post up as an example of cowardly ranting. We get one like this every time I post a cold weather story. I’ve come to enjoy it because the rant is so predictable.
Three things:
1) Note the post tags: weather, records. Climate was not tagged.
2) Note the masthead: “Commentary on puzzling things in life, nature, science, weather, climate change, technology, and recent news by Anthony Watts” Weather is included, always has been, always will be.
3) Note the first sentence “from the weather not climate department”. I include that just for people like yourself.
Thanks for once again demonstrating cowardly, boorish, and predictable behavior. – Anthony Watts
“Aerology” is almost as “good” as what passes for “Climate Science” in this sad age. Just sayin’ … LOL!
Icarus (09:05:56) :
No Icarus, I don’t have time for trolls.
You are able to look it up for yourself.
David Q. (09:24:30) :
It was only a joke.
Some of you are arguing with Icarus as if he cares about the data.
If you fall in line with his environmental program he’d be at peace with you.
I haven’t looked at these, so I can’t vouch for them, but someone else might be able to sort out what’s going on.
http://hallofrecord.blogspot.com/2009/02/how-are-we-to-measure-global-warming.html
Jerky (13:56:01) :
If you actually believe AGW is not real, then why are you always trying to confuse the issue by publishing stories about WEATHER and not climate. Do you and your readers not yet know the difference?
——————————————————-
This type of cold was not part of global warming predictions.
Also, where is the enormous amount of record heat that is appearing in greater amounts than cold records.
Also, did you know temperature data is showing a cooling in the earth?
E.M.Smith (01:25:31) :
You could have added that the Melbourne official measurement site at 2 LaTrobe St. used to be semi-rural in the ’30s & is now a busy intersection surrounded by high-rise buildings.
Classic UHI induced heating.
DaveE.
Roger Knights (02:24:05) :
You owe me a new keyboard & monitor mate 😉
DaveE.
Are not records, severe weather events indeed climate indicators? They are part of the picture used by AGWers to portray as evidence of climate change.
“Climate encompasses the statistics of temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind, rainfall, atmospheric particle count and numerous other meteorological elements in a given region over long periods of time. Climate can be contrasted to weather, which is the present condition of these same elements over periods up to two weeks.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate
Jerky (13:56:01) :
“If you actually believe AGW is not real, then why are you always trying to confuse the issue by publishing stories about WEATHER and not climate. Do you and your readers not yet know the difference?”
Argue amongst yourselves, AGWers. Perhaps Icarus doesn’t know what he thinks he knows what you think you know.
“Icarus (09:15:18) :
Yes you have record low temperatures, but you have twice as many record high temperatures”
Barry Foster (04:13:29) :
Here is the link you want…
http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm
DaveE.
Jerky (13:56:01) :
If you actually believe AGW is not real, then why are you always trying to confuse the issue by publishing stories about WEATHER and not climate. Do you and your readers not yet know the difference?
REPLY: Despite your policy violation with an invalid email address (nospam@hotmail.com) from an IP in New York City, I’m leaving your post up as an example of cowardly ranting. We get one like this every time I post a cold weather story. I’ve come to enjoy it because the rant is so predictable.
Three things:
1) Note the post tags: weather, records. Climate was not tagged.
2) Note the masthead: “Commentary on puzzling things in life, nature, science, weather, climate change, technology, and recent news by Anthony Watts” Weather is included, always has been, always will be.
3) Note the first sentence “from the weather not climate department”. I include that just for people like yourself.
Thanks for once again demonstrating cowardly, boorish, and predictable behavior. – Anthony Watts
Anthony, I think “y” is the first initial of his last name.
Jerky (13:56:01) :
Anthony, you are too harsh on the lad(dess)!
It’s obvious that (s)he has partaken of the Kool-Aid and was incapable of reading past the headline, this is normal when sense of humour has been surgically removed.
DaveE.
Yesterday in Canada
“Canada freezes as snow storm strands thousands”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/13/2770207.htm
(100 cm snow = just under 3.3 ft.)
I couldn’t find that mentioned in comments, so I’m posting it. Sorry if it turns out to be a duplication.
more of that travesty cooling
“Nick Stokes (04:02:48) :
E.M.Smith (01:25:31) :
How do you know you had the hottest November?
Well, I live here. I’ve lived here a long time. And it was damn hot.
But these guys aren’t using any fancy database. They base it on the local records.”
There was a news story that November 1878 was hotter and the heat wave was twice as long.
John
In the future perhaps one should just ask “Icarus” to go look at the NOAA site for information as according to the NOAA site, they have it all figured out. No need to search further:
“NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.”
Here in Western Washington, they place thermometers at local schools, and call it School Net. I’ve tried to find out some info on device placement standards and such, but none of the local news stations have responded to my feedback requests. I’d be willing to bet they’re placed right next to the school buildings in locations the kids can’t get to, maybe on the roof…
Urban Heat Island must’ve saved Dallas/Fort Worth from a record, because it was COLD last week! Brrrrrrr!!!!!!!
For those of you puzzled about the recent cold spells read this. on ‘The Global Problem of Turbulence Cooling’
http://www.thunderbolts.info/tpod/2009/arch09/091211turbulence.htm
(satire) 🙂
The lowest temperature ever recorded on earth was -128.6 F, which is 10 degrees below the temperature at which CO2 turns to a solid. So natural temperatures have actually been low enough to consider CO2 snow. Yet it would be practically impossible to expect CO2 snow at this temperature since the partial pressure of the CO2 would have to be 0.4 atm, which isn’t possible with CO2 currently at 388 ppm. Below 0.4 atm partial pressure, solid CO2 simply sublimates (remains as a gas).
(I do wonder what type of “snowflakes” CO2 would produce if it ever could produce snow… water molecules are bipolar and that undoubtedly contributes to the amazing shapes and variations seen in snowflakes made of that compound… However, CO2 is arranged linearly, because there are no lone pairs (sp hybridization), and so there are no distinct positive and negative ends, since the negatively charged oxygen atoms make up both ends. I’d say CO2 snowflakes would probably be pretty mundane if examined at high magnification.)
I never believed the GW scam but have felt the whole herd of sheep being pushed further and further to the left toward the abyss of socialism, economic disaster, and the eventual destruction of the United States as the pre-eminent economic and world military power. All with an increasing sense of un-ease and fear as it seems that there is an ever increasing number Americans with the wrong-headed notion that America and our way of life is to blame for all of the ills of the world. And we have compounded and hastened our own demise by electing this charlatan Obama and the likes of Nancy Pelosi whose sworn agenda is exactly that!
Global Warming was it seemed a perfect vehicle to accomplish this dark and evil goal as everyone in the elite establisment (especially the media) was fully on board and skeptics were vilified and marginalized. Is Climate Gate going to be a big enough bump in the road to kill the global warming fraud? I have my doubts. The mainstream media is very quiet, Obama is so deeply vested in the movement that his Chicago style politics will quash any real investigations, corrections or punative actions. And perhaps most frightening of all, the EPA is a deeply entrenched, powerful and self-perpetuating super bureaucracy accountable to no one, and their’s is the same agenda as the GW
crowd. More than Climate Gate will be needed to stop the slide.
Now that the COP15 is taking place in Copenhagen I thought a weather forecast from Copenhagen would be of interest. I’m a dane myself and living in Copenhagen. They’re forecasting snow in Denmark and temperatures below zero degrees celsius. According to an article I read on http://www.dmi.dk (danish meteorological institute) friday could be the coldest december day we’ve had in eight years. Temperatures will drop to minus 10-15 degrees celsius. Later in december temperatures can drop even further.
The lowest temperature on average we’ve had in december for the period 1979-2008 is -12,5 degrees celsius, which means we’re looking at a temperature that’s below that thirty-year average.
I think it’s pretty ironic with record cold temperatures in Copenhagen on friday when leaders from around the world are getting ready to sign the paper that will be the result of COP15. I have three thoughts 1) Can the politicians stay warm by talking? 2) How will the protesters do in these temperatures? 3) Will the police consider using the water-cannon on the protesters? Ok, that last one was probably too cruel.
http://www.dmi.dk/eng/index/forecasts/forecast_for_copenhagen.htm
RE: Henry chance (09:09:20) :
News flash. The opportunities for banana plantations and orange groves
——————-
AFAIK – at present, the northerly limit of banana growing is Ventura County, CA (a very isolated plantation in a strange microclimate). The northerly limit for oranges is I believe Tehama County, CA. These have been the limits my whole life (40 plus years). No one is contemplating anything further north at this time.
With all of the Pseudoscience Science going on in the Man Made Global Warming community these days , it seems that even the most sane people can’t get thru to them so Mother Nature will have to tell them . . .
” You Don’t Fool Mother Nature “