sorry John – I don’t have time for this

Picking-off weak arguments is easy; meanwhile there are nonrandom patterns that have not been explained.

what “nonrandom events”?

Picking-off weak arguments is easy; meanwhile there are nonrandom patterns that have not been explained.

The sun’s output doesn’t vary sufficiently to explain 20th century warming. This is why we have a number of alternative “theories” such as ….

2. Solar wind, storms – interacts with our atmosphere also keeps cosmic radiation at bay – or not

There has been no trend in GCRs in the past 40-odd years. There has been an upward trend in temperatures.

3. Interplanetary dust along the solar plane which we plow through every 100,000 years

Not really relevant on multi-decadal/centennial timescales.

Why do you say this? Could you describe the mechanism by which the sun & solar system affects terrestrial climate?

1. Radiation heats us up
2. Solar wind, storms – interacts with our atmosphere also keeps cosmic radiation at bay – or not
3. Interplanetary dust along the solar plane which we plow through every 100,000 years

Sorry, didn’t mean to imply that you were. It’s just that trade wind relaxation is such an important part of the entire system, that I’d expect to see more about it on climate blogs. Doesn’t it deserve more attention or perhaps a thread of its own?

I adjusted a wavelet algorithm in light of this insight which you have shared — the result is a pattern 1/4-cycle out of phase with the timing of the blue dots here:
http://www.sfu.ca/~plv/RegimeChangePoints.PNG

Annual ENSO variability “fishtails” in the years just-after major climate shifts.

The patterns shared by a variety of solar/geophysical variables are nonrandom. I will leave commentary on the physics to the physicists.

I wasn’t shrugging off the relaxation of trade winds as an initiator of ENSO events, nor do I think researchers are neglecting it. I believe they simply haven’t found an initiator that is constant or dominant.

Regards

You need to remove (from LOD) the decadal oscillations to see what Sidorenkov & others are talking about. Also, in order to gain helpful perspective on the layers of confounding, I highly recommend reading Barkin.

I’ll leave commentary on physical mechanisms to Ninderthana & others who are more qualified to address that apect of these multidisciplinary matters.

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Bill Illis (16:19:48) “to tie them to the ENSO would also require a seasonal component”

Thanks for this note. If you have any related links/articles to share, that will be appreciated.

But to tie them to the ENSO would also require a seasonal component as well since about 80% of El Ninos, La Ninas occur in the November to January period. It is more likely, a seasonal atmospheric or ocean cycle influence is the driver.

Don’t trust Gross’s percentage estimates.

I don’t trust anyones estimates except mine. ;-)

I downloaded the LOD data and compared it to changes in Atmospheric angular momentum. What I discovered was than AAM did indeed only account for a small proportion of changes in LOD, roughly 10%.

So, what about the rest? The info I’ve seen on changes caused by oceanic temperature shifts don’t account for much of LOD change either, so what is left but what’s under the Earth’s surface?

Published Online: 15 Dec 2006

Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Variations common to the interplanetary magnetic field, the zonal atmospheric circulation and the earth’s rotation
D. Djurovic 1, P. Páquet 2
1Department of Astronomy, University of Belgrade, YU-11000 Belgrade, Yugoslavia
2Royal Observatory of Belgium, Avenue Circulaire, B-1180 Brussels, Belgium

Abstract
A study of the cyclic fluctuations in the earth’s rotation, the geomagnetic field, the global atmospheric circulation and solar activity reveals the existence of 50-day and 120-day oscillations common to all. Our results, as well as the results obtained by radiometric measurements from the satellites Nimbus-7 and the Solar Maximum Mission (Wilson 1982; Pap 1985), suggest that their origin lies in the physical processes in the sun. The mechanism remains unexplained but from this work it follows that the role of the interplanetary magnetic field could very well be important.

Don’t trust Gross’s percentage estimates.