Glenn (13:43:48) :
bill (06:26:49) :

P Wilson (03:43:00)
This entry seems to assume that half the US temperatures are equivalent to the world.
The UK has, and is, experiencing a warm autumn.
I am still getting 10s of kg of ripe tomatoes still usually they have been killed by frost by mid october.
BUT this is simply weather!”

Where in the UK is frost normal in mid October?

Date of first frost in the UK is mid-Oct or earlier for most of the country.
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Excuse me if I don’t take your word for that, or as evidence the UK is experiencing a warm autumn. I don’t know what “most” means to you, either. From what I can gather depending on area, first frost is from mid September to mid November.

The term “dissertation” can also mean, more in general, a treatise on some subject, without relation to obtaining an academic degree. The term “thesis” can also mean the central claim of an essay or similar work.

Never much, not then, not now.

About 2 million bottles of wine per year currently, I would imagine the tax would be quite significant.

Where in the UK is frost normal in mid October?

Date of first frost in the UK is mid-Oct or earlier for most of the country.

Why would anyone be concerned, much less willing to redesign the entire economy and government of the world over 1 degree of warming?

I would certainly like to see a little warming, lost in all of this is that warmer is generally better, if that wasn’t true Siberia and Canada would be densely populated. Saddly it looks more and more like 1 degree is the high end of any actual warming rather than the 2 or 3 I had hoped for.

however, then IPCC models assume 3C/doubling forcing…..what are your thoughts on that, John?

However, since CO2 does interact with LW IR radiation, it’s not unreasonable to think that increasing CO2 might lead to a warmer planet. Calculations of radiative transfer through the atmosphere suggest that doubling CO2 would increase the earth’s temperature by about 1 deg C. A figure wich is generally accepted by most “sceptical” scientists including Richard Lindzen.

I guess we have no argument then, because I don’t doubt the above at all. I have no doubt either that the last decade has been relatively warm. I have seen the argument you made put forth as if it proves that the warming continues to trend up. It doesn’t prove any such thing, but I see you know that.

The question of what constitutes a current trend is entirely based on where you pick to start. Start in the Holocene optimum, and we are on a cooling trend without doubt. Start in the thirties, little or no trend. Start in the sixties, we are on a warming trend. You can pick the direction of your trend by picking your starting point, so I guess we are going to have to agree to disagree on that one, kind of like smoothing algorithms, which are arbitrary too.

P Wilson (03:43:00)
This entry seems to assume that half the US temperatures are equivalent to the world.
The UK has, and is, experiencing a warm autumn.
I am still getting 10s of kg of ripe tomatoes still usually they have been killed by frost by mid october.
BUT this is simply weather!”

Where in the UK is frost normal in mid October?
What kind of and where are you growing tomatoes? Greenhouse?

One takes all the temps worldwide, from every possible location, for every different weather system, ranging from -60 to+45C to form an average that has nothing to do with any of them!

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Winter_of_0910.pdf

How reliable it CET? To obtain this constant temperature record would have to be the same places, the same environments, and the same conditions. Nowadays, satellites remove biases as much as possible. Throughout this period, different types of thermometer are used on the basis of technology.

Also, being in England, these are not representative of the world temperatures: Most record breaking temeratures around the world occurred pre-1950, although England is on the frontier between a maritime and a continental climate.