Comments on: A real hockey stick http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/31/the-real-hockey-stick/ The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change Tue, 14 Feb 2012 12:15:57 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.com/ By: gary gulrud http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/31/the-real-hockey-stick/#comment-216994 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 20:57:40 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=12316#comment-216994 Amherst Mortgage had a paper out Sept. 23 indicating nationally 1.35% the yearly inventory of homes for sale is currently on track for foreclosure, i.e., accounting for those loans in trouble that will be eventually saved.

So homes are set to fall another 10-15% in value. This does not include a commercial property crash that will occur with numerous businesses and developers in trouble. Which, of course, is more trouble for insurers and re-insurers.

Bank failures next year will double those of this year. The FDIC is asking for 3 years of premiums from remaining banks rather than beg Congress for another advance beyond the 100 billion it got this year.

Your ride ain’t over.

]]> By: Roger Knights http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/31/the-real-hockey-stick/#comment-216897 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 18:10:24 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=12316#comment-216897 “Can anyone recommend some good econ blogs/forums?”

Try the articles section of the Seeking Alpha site–it has a preponderance of bearish members–including me. Here’s the link:
http://seekingalpha.com/articles

]]> By: Carl http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/31/the-real-hockey-stick/#comment-216467 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 03:10:08 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=12316#comment-216467 Can anyone recommend some good econ blogs/forums?

]]> By: F. Ross http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/31/the-real-hockey-stick/#comment-216458 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 02:58:28 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=12316#comment-216458 crosspatch (21:13:30) :

Spot on!

]]> By: pwl http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/31/the-real-hockey-stick/#comment-216355 Sun, 01 Nov 2009 22:52:30 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=12316#comment-216355 Ah, excuse me but if that graph is accurate the worst of the financial mess has yet to happen. Yikes, start stocking up on staples and other supplies while the getting is good.

Anthony it would be really interesting to see the details of the Mannian errant math and especially the program that he used to calculate the hokey, er, hokey stick. I understood that it will produce a hockey stick curve even with random data, is that correct? It would be fun to see that.

]]> By: penny4812 http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/31/the-real-hockey-stick/#comment-216348 Sun, 01 Nov 2009 22:37:32 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=12316#comment-216348 i like hockey!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

]]> By: Tenuc http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/31/the-real-hockey-stick/#comment-216278 Sun, 01 Nov 2009 19:35:08 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=12316#comment-216278 M White (04:21:00) :
“Check out the graph here

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8332861.stm

UK house prices”

Extract from the BBC article.
“…Seema Shah, property economist at Capital Economics, said: “The upturn in house prices already appears to be losing momentum.

“With the housing market still overvalued, activity still at levels which would normally result in falling prices, and unemployment still rising, we expect house price falls to resume in 2010…”

By saving the banks, all governments around the world did was to provide a reprieve to stop the bubble bursting. This had the effect of deflating the bubble slightly, but it is now growing rapidly and governments can’t afford another bail-out when it starts to burst again.

]]> By: sonicfrog http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/31/the-real-hockey-stick/#comment-216275 Sun, 01 Nov 2009 19:31:18 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=12316#comment-216275 North of 43 south of 44 (06:25:37) :

Just wait until they discover the commercial property side of the mortgage crisis.

The commercial market – I’ve been harping on this overlooked detail for quite some time. It’s gonna get worse before it gets better.

]]> By: crosspatch http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/31/the-real-hockey-stick/#comment-216258 Sun, 01 Nov 2009 18:55:53 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=12316#comment-216258 “Tom in Texas (11:50:07) :”

And 9 US banks failed and were taken over on Saturday.

]]> By: Tom in Texas http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/31/the-real-hockey-stick/#comment-216252 Sun, 01 Nov 2009 18:50:07 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=12316#comment-216252 North of 43 south of 44 (06:25:37) :
Just wait until they discover the commercial property side of the mortgage crisis.

Last Sunday, Capmark Financial, one of the largest commercial lenders, declared bankruptcy.

]]> By: brazil84 http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/31/the-real-hockey-stick/#comment-216235 Sun, 01 Nov 2009 18:27:36 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=12316#comment-216235 Great point, Halfwise. Anyway, I think the folks with the computer models are fundamentally the same as Court Astrologers from the middle ages. In essence, their jobs are to use pseudoscience to tell the King what he wants to hear.

]]> By: crosspatch http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/31/the-real-hockey-stick/#comment-216225 Sun, 01 Nov 2009 18:11:03 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=12316#comment-216225 “Could ships have been the reason for dirty Californian beaches in the past?”

No. That tar predates oil fired shipping by hundreds of centuries.

]]> By: sonicfrog http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/31/the-real-hockey-stick/#comment-216196 Sun, 01 Nov 2009 17:36:28 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=12316#comment-216196 Yep. Some banks have been sitting on foreclosures and short sale for as long as 18 months. Not sure how you get around that via accounting trick, but if the climate can still be warming when it’s cooling, then anything is possible.

]]> By: Retired Engineer http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/31/the-real-hockey-stick/#comment-216195 Sun, 01 Nov 2009 17:32:09 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=12316#comment-216195 UK Sceptic (03:09:08) :

“We have a similar problem over the pond and a bunch of idiots in government who don’t have clue one what to do about it.”

That, sir, is a universal statement which applies to all governments.

As they used to say in Vaudeville:”You ain’t seen nothin’ yet” (long before BTO recorded it)

]]> By: StickyShoes http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/31/the-real-hockey-stick/#comment-216192 Sun, 01 Nov 2009 17:27:35 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=12316#comment-216192 That should be Google “santa barbara” oil exxon chumash tomol

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