There’s clearly something interesting going on, if the Arctic temperature graph is anything to go by. The last 6 or 7 weeks have seen some very sudden and significant changes.

A question maybe to Pamela Gray who seems to have the Jet Stream in her sights:- Is there any possible correlation between the behaviour of the Jet Stream and the Arctic temps and sea ice readings?

Temperatures plummeted to -34C late last week. Currently (daily high) it is
-27C:
http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/71082.html#History

Normal for October avg -20:
http://www.grc.k12.nf.ca/climatecanada/alert.htm

With freezing noted in this post as far south as Charlotte NC (new record) in NA and Romania-Austria-Germany (new records) in Europe, We appear to be on track to surpass the winter of 2008-2009 for cold. The Hadley centre’s warm winter forecast with”1 in 7 chance of a cold one” will be soon changing these odds.

JUST OPENED UP MY UTILITY BILL FOR OCTOBER. THEY PUBLISH A YEAR OVER YEAR AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE MONTH. THIS MONTH’S AVERAGE WAS 7 DEG COLLER THAN LAST YEAR’ S OCTOBER AVERAGE.

I think there was a prediction by someone that El Nino, besides co2, could make this year warmer than last. Many wrong predictions from AGW folk.

Where exactly will it be warmer for the rest of the month?

In their dreams.

You could send an email to NOAA asking for Octobers forecast. They may reply.

REPLY: Perhaps not, I think Steve McIntyre is more deserving. – Anthony

The Yamal data break was fantastic. I remember how the news struck me! If there is an award for the science story or the year that is it! That single story probably did more for real science than anything else this year. I can understand why you did say that about Steve McIntyre. He has shown quite a bit of persistence.

But on a day to day basis throughout the year WUWT is science blog of the year—IMO.

Don’t short sell yourself Anthony. There has been a lot of valuable science coming from your blog! Many people love this web site!

I looked up the forecast and here it is:
26 Oct 31 Oct
London 17 17
Paris 17 16
Berlin 14 8
Vienna 14 9
Stockholm 10 7
Moscow 5 2
Bucharest 17 9
Madrid 26 26
Rome 22 17
Athens 23 14

Where exactly will it be warmer for the rest of the month?

Ditto with the garlic crop here in Nebraska, but then we’re smack dab in the middle of the low temperature anomaly. At this stage, I’m considering doing a spring planting.

On the 16th of October 2005 the ice reduced by 16875 Km^2 as per the JAXA data, but this reduction is unprecedented. The 25th of October with very little to no insolation in those latitudes a reduction of 79,843 sq kms. This on top of a very small increase of 17,656 Km^2 on the 24th. Mind you they have published an update reducing this reduction to exactly 30,000 Km^2 but still. Looks like some adjustment of their previous data perhaps. There also seems to be some warm water pouring in from the Pacific still. We will see what todays figures look like.

If it is to be believed Arctic Ice has REDUCED by 7,447,813 sq kms on the 25th! Something tells me this is not right. What could be the possible explanation? If not a major undersea volcanoe going off it must be a mistake.

There are other examples of something similar happening, around 15/16 October 2005 for example. I guess Mother Nature isn’t linear!!

Looking ahead is another matter, as cabin fever’s already familiar.