I took the values from Baltic Sea, North Sea, Eastern Mid Atlantic, Mediterranean Sea from these areas from KNMI and did compare it to my LT numbers of Central Europe (in my case, Frankfurt, Germany and around).

About six month ago, I was suggesting a possible rather warm winter of 2009/2010, simply by going the solar cycles (but, whilst SC 24 is rather anemic, I reviewed my opinion). Now it looks alike as if 09/10 will be the fourth winter with decreasing temperatures, compared to the previous one.

Seems to be, my heating bill will be f$@#ed again. Anyway, did buy enough
for 18 month, last time, can live with that since March 2010.
I do always appreciate your articles. Go on, please!

Best Regards

KlausB

Invariant: Interesting, we should barnstorm my calcs on OHC and steric sea level with your time constants. We have been sold a dummy by the warmista. OHC is underestimated to fit their 1.7W/m^2 radiative forcing. 1993-2003 it was more like 4W/m^2. Solar max plus low cloud.

Sure. Please take a look at my calculations earlier in this thread where I calculate the characteristic time constant of the oceans to be 55 000 years by conduction alone and ~55 years with mixing and convection. What does this mean? It means that if the heat balance of the oceans suddenly is changed dramatically enforcing the equilibrium temperature in the oceans to decrease by 10 C, it would take ~55 years for the temperature to drop 3.68 C.

[T0 – T1] exp(-t/tau) = [10 – 20] exp(-55/55) = -3.68 C.

http://blog.modernmechanix.com/mags/qf/c/MechanixIllustrated/1-1946/med_rose_wisdom_die.jpg

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tallbloke says:
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October 13, 2009 at 4:40 pm

John Cook says:
October 13, 2009 at 3:46 pm

“Mark, the sun isn’t heating up the oceans because the sun has been cooling since the solar maximum in 2001.”

I beg to differ with John Cook.
Through some simple modeling I have arrived at an ocean equilibrium estimate of a TSI level equivalent to around 40SSN. The sun fell below this level in early 2004. The Cazenave et al paper I linked above re-examines the JASON/TOPEX satellite altimetry data and finds that since 2005, the rate of increase in sea level rise fell from around 3mm/year to around 1mm/year. Furthermore, they estimate that since 2003, the steric component of sea level rise has fallen to 20% of the total.

This means that the oceans have risen only 0.8mm due to temperature increase since 2005. I put it to john that when error margins are considered, it is possible that the oceans are not warming.

What would the surface temp of Earth be without an atmosphere?

Do it in the Sahara desert at night with a cooled IR filter above to remove the downwelling IR from the atmosphere and it will probably freeze.

Not been in many deserts have we? Without the heat source it will freeze for sure

DaveE.

If the variability that gives rise to cyclical climate shifts is internal to the system then there is no ‘missing’ energy.

You have obviously decided not to understand that.

The internal mechanisms which keep the system stable despite that internal variability work just as well whatever causes internal variability to arise whether it be more GHGs from enhanced ocean evaporation or more GHGs from other sources.

Right, both yes and no to be on the safe side. The figures I gave is of course on average for the whole globe and there are huge seasonal and zonal variability but the point is that on average you are missing 340 W/m2 in your ‘theory’ and you have obviously decided not to understand this.

The only purpose of the graphs was to show that OHC troughs 1-2 years after SST. To do that the scale on the y axis is irrelevant and you do see the years on the x axis.

Yes, the oceans absorb huge amounts of solar radiation, most of it in the upper few meters, the near IR in the first centimeters.

No, I don’t think heat transport by conduction is important in the ocean and I never said that. The heat is mostly transported by mixing, both upwards and downwards within the well mixed layer, and the ocean is both heated and cooled from the top i.e. the impact is more delayed the deeper you look.

If I stick an infrared lamp kicking 160w/m^2 over a shallow metre square dish of water in the dark, what temperature will it reach before the loss to the (average temp) air equals the input from the heat source? 16C doesn’t seem out of the way to me.

Do it in the Sahara desert at night with a cooled IR filter above to remove the downwelling IR from the atmosphere and it will probably freeze.