Where is the context?

The two authors of the study have an explanation of the context of their findings at RC (guest post): http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/10/putting-the-recent-antarctic-snowmelt-minimum-into-context/

Grumbine also has an informative post, and rightly highlights that
“there is more than one way for the Antarctic to lose mass.” (http://moregrumbinescience.blogspot.com/2009/10/antarctic-snow-and-ice.html) Note that Tedesco (one of the study’s authors) responded as follows (presumably via email) on Grumbine’s blog (2nd comment):

“Let me also catch the opportunity to mention that the results of our work have been extremely simplified and not all results have been reported on many blogs. In the paper we do report the lowest melt in the 30-year satellite record this past austral summer but we also examine the causality of the low melt and find that it is related to the belt of westerly winds that encircles Antarctica. These winds are expected to weaken as the ozone hole is projected to recover significantly during the next 25 years and, as a consequence, we expect that temperature increases over Antarctica will become stronger and more widespread.

We also note that our results do not contradict recently published results on surface temperature trends over Antarctica: the time period used for those studies extends back to the 1950′s, well beyond 1980, and the largest temperature increases are found during winter and spring rather than summer, and are generally limited to West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula.”

It’s an art to stir up conflict where there is none. But what good does it do?

Marco Tedesco
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, City College of New York, New York, New York, USA

Andrew J. Monaghan
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Abstract:

A 30-year minimum Antarctic snowmelt record occurred during austral summer 2008–2009 according to spaceborne microwave observations for 1980–2009. Strong positive phases of both the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) were recorded during the months leading up to and including the 2008–2009 melt season. The 30-year record confirms that significant negative correlations exist at regional and continental scales between austral summer melting and both the ENSO and SAM indices for October–January. In particular, the strongest negative melting anomalies (such as those in 2008 and 2009) are related to amplified large-scale atmospheric forcing when both the SAM and ENSO are in positive phases. Our results suggest that enhanced snowmelt is likely to occur if recent positive summer SAM trends subside in conjunction with the projected recovery of stratospheric ozone levels, with subsequent impacts on ice sheet mass balance and sea level trends.

Received 13 May 2009; accepted 12 August 2009; published 24 September 2009.

Citation: Tedesco, M., and A. J. Monaghan (2009), An updated Antarctic melt record through 2009 and its linkages to high-latitude and tropical climate variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L18502,

Thanks in advance!

@ Stu (20:26:39) – good point. I was trying to say that if the headlines were only driven by sensationalism, they’d've jumped on this contrary seeming news… but I imagine you’re right, the sheer weight of AGW media would drown out anything contrary at this point. Just think, tho – the intrepid editor and journalist who dared it might not get much at first, but they’d be opening up a whole new area for all journalists! ;0)

@ philincalifornia (20:54:49) – yes, I’m sure you’re right. I’ve wondered a number of times just how much AGW market manip. has been occurring as it is.

I know of no free/public link to that Sidorenkov paper, but the paper you’ve found is an excellent overview of his work.

What I can share is a result I found with ease not long after discovering the works of Barkin:
http://www.sfu.ca/~plv/-LOD_aa_Pr._r.._LNC_Env_MorletPi.png

You will note one discrepancy. It relates to Earth nutation and I will be endeavoring to identify the source of the asymmetry; I already have a short-list of potential conditioning factors.

Barkin gives a series of clues that liberate investigators of terrestrial oscillations from the oppression of misguided conventional paradigms that have rammed head-on (at full speed) into impenetrable barriers.

For anyone who hasn’t clued in yet: This is serious business.

Couldn’t find this other paper though. “The Effect of El-Niño Oscillation on the Exitation of the Chandler Motion of the Earth Pole” Do you have a link by chance?

Thanks, d

“Hi Chris – Looks like you missed my ironic tone…”

No, I didn’t miss the irony but I thought it was a cheap shot and the irony misplaced.

See the works of Russian scientists Yu.V. Barkin and N.S. Sidorenkov. Particularly for anyone who knows cross-wavelet methods, this could be among the very best climate-literature-reading investments possible.

I have been preparing for the backlash; true environmentalists may find themselves mired in the battle-of-a-lifetime correcting the climate-alarmist movement. This task must be pursued with appropriate restraint, but also with due severity; public confidence must not be undermined. There is not a moment to waste in planning to catch all that will fall; with careful & strategic planning, this is an opportunity to harness the accumulated charge and coax the momentum in a positive direction. There is little time to prepare the public for what will come, so this is a call to the very brightest amongst amongst us to be vigilantly on-their-game in preparing, starting now. Stability can be maintained during the transition if we are prepared in-advance to gather each loose thread as it unravels; there is no need for alarmism tomorrow, just as there wasn’t yesterday …and this isn’t a time for “I told you so” – we have serious work to do and under the circumstances the most sensible course might be one of austerity.

All of it relatively short term gain for a very few, regardless of the long term harm to pretty literally everyone in terms of standards of living, productivity, and so on.
———————————-

Litigation around manipulation of the stock market could be lots of fun when the markets in question crash.

Revenge is a meal best eaten cold.

I think that while any of the headlines you posted above are obviously sensationalistic (and creative ;) enough to merit front page news, they just don’t fit or make sense within the prevailing cultural fears. They probably would have been perfect in the 70s when the big concern was a looming Ice Age, but we have been consistently been sold the story of melting ice and sea level rise.. I imagine the emotional response to these kinds of headlines in today’s world would be primarily a neutral one- they would work as a diffuser of global warming fears but probably wouldn’t carry enough strength on their own to create a fear response.

The global warming story presented in the media, while ever confused in the details, is still coherent enough in making sure that people are getting the primary message – ‘global warming is bad, the polar bears are dying, it’s our fault and we need to turn things around’.

Which makes the lowest melt recorded in the Antarctic completely off message and therefore extremely un-newsworthy.