Hot off the press from Dr. Roy Spencer. After being essentially zero last month, we have a jump to .410°C in July. This was not unexpected, as a El Nino has been developing.
July 2009 Global Temperature Update: +0.41 deg. C
August 5th, 2009
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2009 1 0.304 0.443 0.165 -0.036
2009 2 0.347 0.678 0.016 0.051
2009 3 0.206 0.310 0.103 -0.149
2009 4 0.090 0.124 0.056 -0.014
2009 5 0.045 0.046 0.044 -0.166
2009 6 0.003 0.031 -0.025 -0.003
2009 7 0.410 0.211 0.609 0.427
July 2009 experienced a large jump in global average tropospheric temperatures, from +0.00 deg. C in June to +0.41 deg. C in July, with the tropics and southern hemisphere showing the greatest warming.
NOTE: For those who are monitoring the daily progress of global-average temperatures here, we will be switching from NOAA-15 to Aqua AMSU in the next few weeks, which will provide more accurate tracking on a daily basis. We will be including both our lower troposphere (LT) and mid-tropospheric (MT) pre-processing of the data.
Lucia at the Blackboard has an analaysis of RSS, which came in higher this month also, at 0.392°C.
http://rankexploits.com/musings/2009/rss-for-july-0392-c-graphs-to-follow/
What I find unusual is that usually the tropospheric temps as measured by UAH don’t respond so quickly to a developing El Nino. For example, in july 1997 the “super” El Nino had been ongoing for about 3 months, ONI was 1.7, but UAH only measured a 0.085 anomaly. Plus, its well known that the typical lagged response of temp to ENSO is about 6-7 months, and 6 months ago La Nina conditions were present. Thus, I don’t agree that the high July anomaly is “expected” just because El Nino is developing.
As you say…to be expected, but i am sure the warmist will be all over it!
Must have been warm somewhere else, then, because NZ has been well below average for the third month in a row.
what is the purpose of a trailing average instead of a ‘regular’ average?
@Adam, the .085 july anamoly may not seem like much by itself, but that summmer (eye-balling) shows a total change of 1.0 in a few months, definitely a large increase.
In the meantime, many of us here in the Midwest experienced a record cold July. El Nino has yet to make its appearance here…
Adam (12:41:08) :
Thus, I don’t agree that the high July anomaly is “expected” just because El Nino is developing.
It is a bit early. The other point is that we have a deep solar minimum and a negative PDO. Shoudn’t the El Nino temperature spike be more like the late 80s. This is begining to look like the post 1998-2001 period.
How much can we rely on these global temperature measurements? Do we have some systems measuring similar areas — competing data so to speak — so that we can check one against another? Is the data massaged “secretly” in any way? Finally, which systems of measurement have proven themselves to be the most accurate and trustworthy?
P”urakanui (12:45:43) :
Must have been warm somewhere else, then, because NZ has been well below average for the third month in a row.”
Not only in New Zealand, but also in South Africa where weather has been cold (except for today, 32 degrees C in my hometown) and snow has fallen. Barely any rain though so the El Nino is being felt here unlike the wet winter of La Nina – 2008.
Hmm.. The warming may be over the oceans I suppose due to the fact that South America has also had some real winter weather this year!
ak (12:56:32) :
what is the purpose of a trailing average instead of a ‘regular’ average?
It is not trailing. Look at the left-hand side of the plot. The ‘running’ average correctly does not include the last 6 and the first 6 months.
actually, ak was right, Leif. It was his comment that caused me to change the trailing average to a centered average.
Hmmmph. A lot of anecdotal evidence of surface cooling all through July (I know New England was cool, and the last week has been nothing to complain about Thermagedon-wise) and yet the lower troposphere has a big positive anomaly. Sigh. Maybe I oughtta do a Rip van WInkle and see how things have turned out in 20 years….
Toasty!
I don’t see why people give to much credit to this data. There isn’t a reliable measurement of Earth temperature for start.
That’s kinda hot!
– is this the El Nino’s effect?
lucklucky (14:03:33) :
I agree. As it is well knows, from Anthony’s project, the NOAA system is totally unreliable… why should we think that all is good with all the other systems? I am sure they all have their problems, not only instrumentation wise but methodology and data treatment too. And what makes matters worst is they won’t release the raw data to anyone.
BTW, where are all the people who were carping on UAH for being lower than RSS. Shouldn’t they now be congratulating UAH for being higher than its counterpart? Just asking.
That’s interesting. NCDC shows continental US temperature still well below last July. They show the CONUS average to be 73.46 degrees. 27th warmest and well below (nearly a full degree below) the 1901-2000 average of 74.29.
Mr. Alex (13:38:14) : That is true also for South America, we feel no Nino here. It´s too cold for el nino. How to understand all the red color on the pacific ocean, as depicted by noaa? True or wishful thinking?
I thought I saw where Canada had a very cold July. A large spike up just seems odd.
Roy Spencer (13:51:36) :
Dr. Spencer, thank you. I read this entry before there were any comments and then moved on. The term “trailing average” stuck in my mind but then it wasn’t there when Dr. Svalgaard (hah! got it right this time! Two As in the second syllable, not the first) caused me to go back and look. Just like Arthur “Tootles” Malet in Spielberg’s Hook, “I haven’t lost my marbles after all”!
Good thing, too, ’cause I’m going to try and show my deviance students how AGW is deviantization in action and my Sociology of Religion students how AGW is like a cult…. a’ course, there are a few heretics here who are pretty cult-like too…. and “Climate Confusion” is on my “read this month” shelf.
The process of global energy loss or gain is slow with many hiccups caused by chaotic variabiliy in oceans and air.
The recent more positive (or rather less negative) oceanic signal is bound to result in a global air temperature rise as the air circulation systems move a little poleward in response to increased oceanic release of energy.
The real question is whether the solar shortwave input to the oceans is sufficient to offset the energy currently being released to the air.
If not then the El Nino will be weak and the next La Nina will create a step downwards in global air temperatures with a continuing loss of oceanic heat content.
At the moment the oceanic signal is slightly positive but the northern hemisphere winter loses more energy to space than a southern hemisphere winter due to the larger land mass.
In the coming northern hemisphere winter the loss of energy from the northern land masses to space may well exceed the warming efect on the air of the recent larger energy releases from the oceans.
It is possible to get a colder northern hemisphere winter despite a weak to moderate El Nino. We really need a strong El Nino to offset the global cooling effect of a northern hemisphere winter and I doubt that we will get that during a negative PDO phase.
We shall see.
Should be interesting to see if this trend continues or drops off again. Thanks Roy for the work you do. Also, thanks to Leif for his efforts here as well.
Steve from Ky.
I don’t know about trying to read the goat’s entrails month by month. I think we ought to wait a little and see what happens. It still resembles something of a random walk to me. It has definitely gotten warmer around here. Summer showed up a couple weeks ago and it has been delightful.
Maybe el ninos are like a big heat burp, meaning that it would accelerate the downward trend once over? Just a hypothesis, not a theory I am advocating.
I’d blame the Australians then.
This was expected, but not for reason given here. Regular readers here may not have realised that lower atmospheric temperatures were at all time highs throughout July, for some reason this never received the profile it should have on this blog, especially after the high surface temperatures recorded in June.
The reference to El Nino here shows very poor research and lack of understanding. The El Nino is starting to develop and could be significant later this NH autumn. At the moment it is correct to say that the threshold for El Nino conditions have been met but we are still a few months away from an El Nino event. These points have been discussed on this blog recently so why the sudden swing to stating an El Nino is causing rapid lower atmospheric temperature rises?
If the writer had done a little research instead of the throwaway El Nino remark, he would have noted where the atmospheric heat anomolies are sited. It is not just over tropical pacific areas, but equally tropical Atlantic and the Indian Ocean. Not typical at all of an El Nino (that is when one gets going!)
The biggest surprise is where the largest increases in lower atmospheric tempeatures are occuring, in sub Antarctica. This is especially evident from the Antarctic coast to Australia.
It has been previously noted on this blog that it is easy to be sceptical of global warming after a strong La Nina and La Nina conditions. It seems that you are now finding out how difficult the obverse is true. It is especially ironic this is happening during a prolonged solar minimum and a continuing -ve PDO when, by the sceptics arguments, the global temperatures should be falling!
Doesn’t take long does it! What a complete reversal from last month. Maybe you can blame these high temperatures on poorly based satellites or UHI….
That makes July 2009 the second warmest July on record.
It would be the warmest were if not “adjusted”.
You are wrong – Anthony – to claim this is to be expected as a consequence of El Nino. You know that 6 months ago we had La Nina and that it is too early for the atmosphere to respond to this El Nino event.
All bets on a strong El Nino by this winter are off. The pattern is completely against it and the cooling that is happening in the central Nino regions will overspread all regions within the next two weeks.
The El Nino is weak as of now and hasn’t moved.
Why do so many wait breathlessly each month for these numbers to come out?
Is it so you can jump on the “my side is now winning” wagon? I have watched this go back and forth for a while with each month’s numbers attempting to be used to validate a personal opinion of either it’s getting warmer or it’s getting colder. All this based on an arbitrary base line. Good grief!
Let’s see: 90 year snows in South America, rugged winter in Australia and South Aftrica, late spring and very cool summer in Canada, NE and Upper Midwest, Snow on the Tour de France in Switzerland and Bavaria…
so how is this to be expected?
Half of our July here in Pacific Northwest was cool and the 2nd half had a heat wave just like 1942.
I get it, it was those lava hot boiling sea cauldrons off of S. America and a few choice places. No summer in Alaska this year, no 90 degree temps. Haven’t heard of a Siberian Summer which is even rarer and surely to make headlines.
So, where did all this heat come from?
Ah, yes, hot GCR’s, that’s what it was.
It surely was NOT the lazy sun. The sun varies by less than .00x%, from all the tepid TSI debates.
Oceans burping off a load of hot water in a last hurrah before winter hits?
Adam (12:41:08) :
Thus, I don’t agree that the high July anomaly is “expected” just because El Nino is developing.
However it was to be expected because since switching to Aqua UAH monthly anomaly data shows a minimum in May/June followed by a rise in July. Any effects of ‘El Niño’ will just add on.
Humm, funny… after very deep and careful analysis (… humhumhrr… excel.. humherrhum… linear regression… hum..) southern ocean warm faster than southern land.
From a data point of view, are tropics included in northern and southern hemisphere or is it 3 different areas?
An 1/2 of 1 degree. Wow, I’m going to have to sweat this one out!
🙂 That is if you want to round it to the tenth degree!
So if this is to be believed, then why the switch to another satellite?
We have seen the blip before on satellites ready to kick the bucket.
Lots of satellites having problems. Maybe hackers got into the data stream and are playing cruel tricks, aided by nations wishing to play global cyber war.
Trick the West into lemming off of climate change cliff.
It just doesn’t make sense, doesn’t fit the ground reports of climate conditions. Too many cooler and cold areas across the globe.
Dr David Jones of Ferny Creek (15:40:16) : “That makes July 2009 the second warmest July on record.”
To which record do you refer?
And aren’t we supposed to be something like 0.88°–1.15°C warmer than the the 20th century benchmark (according to Hansen, et al.)?
Dr. Jone’s comment reminds me of Jacob Mack (13:20:51 in a previous thread) : “. . . interestingly enough the 1988 median predictions input by Jim Hansen were remarkably accurate.” Apparently not.
Normally temp lags enso by 7 months or so, so an ‘alarmist’ I wasn’t expecting any big increase in temps for a few months yet. But the decent in temp from a peak in Jan 2007 to the bottom in Jan 2008 happened with pretty much 0 lag from an El Nino peaking in early 2007, and la nina peaking in 2008, so the current ramp up could be due to the developing el nino. Or it could be something else. It isn’t CO2, because that only causes about 0.0015 degrees increase each month. Just like the previous short term cooling trend was not Co2, or the failure of Co2 to warm, but something else.
That makes July 2009 the second warmest July on record.
It would be the warmest were if not “adjusted”
I fail to see this. looks pretty middle of the road to me.
SonicFrog
The carping has been about the strong differences in trends by month in UAH data since 1998. They are a consequence of the merging of AMSU data to the MSU data record, as Dr. Christy pointed out, which proves to be difficult. The effect looks like this (5-year averages of anomaly by month)
http://i28.tinypic.com/14vu5vq.png
and is unique to the UAH data. Notice the fanning out of the different months after 1998 as compared to the very similar trends before 1998. It makes comparisons between individual months using UAH data difficult. If I understand Dr. Christy correctly, the annual trend (i.e. using full years) ought to be fine.
here comes the part everybody is gonna sum up all the cold parts. In the Netherlands July was 1.0 C warmer. July was also hot in Italy and Spain. If you add some cold in the States you get you 0.2 in the NH.
I am an Englishman who lives in Suffolk, (that’s in England). I am therefore sceptical of all enthusiasm. For the second year running my tomatoes are unwilling to ripen. We have more British Ladybirds (not the vile murderous Yankie Harlequin kind) and more Painted Lady butterflies than I’ve seen in years. Neither of the insects is tolerant of over-heated weather. I use the word ‘weather’ deliberately. Why don’t you all grow up?
Pieter F (16:10:32) :
Mike is 2 inches taller than Peter and Frank is 3 inches taller than John, therefore Frank is 3-2 = 1 inch taller than Mike …. or is he? That’s exactly the kind of reasoning you are doing if you compare UAH or RSS anomaly values straight to GISTEMP anomalies. UAH/RSS refer to the 1979-1998 period, GISTEMP to the 1951-1980 period. GISTEMP global average for the UAH/RSS base period is about 0.24°C, which you have to figure in for comparisons.
Tom in Florida @15:59:04 ,
I sympathize with you, but it’s just a fun pass-time, like looking for Sun spots and sea ice coverage.
Not much heat here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.shtml
or here http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
???
All:
Large month-to-month changes in tropospheric temperature are likely to be dominated by non-radiative transfers of heat, that is, changes in the rate at which convection transfers heat from the surface to the atmosphere. Since June surface temperatures were so high, the July warming of the troposphere might just be reflecting that temporary increase in heat transfer. In the tropics, intraseasonal oscillations are the largest source of this variability.
In daily satellite data we find from global ocean averages that SSTs tend to peak 2 weeks before tropospheric temperature, then a minimum in SST is observed two weeks after that. This lag in convective heat transfer is something that the climate models don’t do very well (I’ve been analyzing it in the IPCC models), but it’s not clear what that might mean in terms of long-term climate change.
HopeForWarming (14:51:01)
Western Canada was hot.
@Mary Hinge
“…Doesn’t take long does it! What a complete reversal from last month.”
Mary – you are making a very valid point. I am skeptic, but I agree with you about the cherry picking nature of too many advocates on both sides.
I think the earth is warming up. It had been doing so for about 200 years and may continue to do so. Dr. Roy wrote an excellent entry on the “Natural Climate Cycle” and its deniers. The deniers exists on both sides of the debate. Some AGW proponents claim that if the earth is warming up it must by because of human actions. The core AGW skeptics claim the temperature is stable and there is no warm-up at all. Both are wrong.
The earth is warming up as a long term trend (100+ years). This is pretty much a fact. But by how much?
Anthony and others here raised valid concerns about the reliability of the measurements of the surface temperatures and the adjustments to the GISS surface temp data. I share the concerns that the adjustments are one directional and are artificially inflating the GISS reported temperatures over time, raising the level of alarm and urgency about GW. But even without those adjustments, I believe the earth is warming, just at a lesser rate than that reported on GISS.
We need to stay consistent. If we think that UAH and RSS were good for previous months, we should accept them even if they go “the wrong direction”. As a skeptic, I am not offended by evidence that the earth is warming up. As Dr. Roy said, it is part of a long term natural climate cycle. I also accept the UHS based data as an indicator of the true long term trend, un-tempered by politician-scientists.
And as I understand it, that long term trend seems to be about 1.5 degree/century. Not very scary, and not worthy of the AGW scare. And of course, I really doubt that this natural warming is driven by our CO2 emissions with so much mounting evidence to the contrary.
As a skeptics, let’s not try to argue that the earth does not warm up at all. Such a extreme claim undermines the credibility of the skeptics and is inconsistent with the our central claim of the natural climate cycles. Instead, we should continue to argue the magnitude of the warm-up (and accept UAH as a leading reliable indicator) and the argue the natural processes behind the warm up.
Garrett. Good points. The much publicized El Nino, so far, has not developed at the speed the “models” anticipated. The warm water seems to have nearly run it”s course as seen here.http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/results/ocean_anals/SEQ_Equator/2009/Aug.gif
Pretty radical jump for the SH. Just looking back through the record for the SH, that must be the biggest one month change. Tropics jump up is similar to the start of the 1998 nino episode. NH makes radical changes pretty regular because of all the land.
So Roy, where were the “hot spots” that made this 0.4C jump?
Like the guy in the UK, a lot of people around here (No. Ca) are having trouble getting thier garden crop to ripen. If it were hot like previous summers, I’d have 2 dozen pumpkins by now. I got one. For every place I know of that had a heat wave, there were 2 or 3 that were 10-20 degrees below average.
Where’s the heat?
Are you certain this is not another satellite decay on the way to failure?
When all is said and done I think the earth will still be in a general cooling trend for some time to come.
Amir Hawk (16:51:03) : You wrote:
“I think the earth is warming up. It had been doing so for about 200 years and may continue to do so.”
I’ll fix this for you:
I think the earth is warming up. It had been doing so for about 17,000 years and may continue to do so.
Why should it not? What’s changed?
It´s a BABY HOCKEY STICK growing up!
Coldest July on record across Midwest (except Cleveland)
http://blog.cleveland.com/metro/2009/08/coldest_july_on_record_through.html
Who/what are we supposed to believe? 😉
Andrew
It’s not just because it was not hot in your hometown that it was not hot somewhere else, many areas of the world had above average temperatures, south Texas had some incredible records and it was totally ignored by the media (like the Mc Allen unprecedent hellish heat, check Brownsville NWS to see a study about it), south america also had hot areas like the southeast and central Brazil, southern Europe, northwestern US/Western Canada/Alaska, i’m not an warmist but some people will always deny every data that does not show cooling, what happended this july is that areas where the media is stronger got colder, so the rest is ignored, like the all time record monthly average in San Antonio, Austin, McAllen.
Frank Mosher (17:06:45) : The much publicized El Nino, so far, has not developed at the speed the “models” anticipated
It is too much cold, here in front of el Nino 1+2 area, for an el nino. I will tell you what this Nino is: It is but red ink-jet, to cheat all those who live far from the south pacific. It is a big lie this time.
Do satellites measure just highs or do they measure lows? There have been many more record lows (day and night) with some record highs. When oceans are neutral or cool I think extremes are more likely. The July temp may be showing hotter days but the nights may have been cooler?
Someone once asked J.P. Morgan what the stock market would do. He is said to have replied, “It will fluctuate.”
[snip]
Reply: Let’s not go there m’kay? charles the moderator
Amir Hawk (16:51:03) :
Very well put – to be a skeptic should mean that you are looking for real answers outside politics – a true scientist. This is just more data to stew in to that search.
As an aside, if you listen to Joe Bastardi @ Accuwx, he is firmly in the camp that this el nino event will be fading by the end of the year. Accuwx has been spot on 6 months out for quite awhile ( as far as I can tell, they were the 1st ones calling for this el nino development – back in January). If they are right on the next call for a fading el nino by year’s end, look for monthly temps to fall from this months level, regardless of if this month’s anomaly is related to the el nino or not
And answering to some questions, why most people came here to say that july was cooler, because this site more popular among skeptcis, that are inclined to comment here only when their hometown had cooler than average temperatures, so cold waves will always have much more attention among comments here (as heatwaves in alarmist sites), i think the satellite measurement is the most reliable we have right now (through not perfect, obviously), i agree that the surface stations summary is biased for warmer anomalies, but not the satellite one. I don’t believe in global warming alarmism, there will always be above or below average temperatures somewhere.
Roy Spencer (16:48:33) : Since June surface temperatures were so high, the July warming of the troposphere might just be reflecting that temporary increase in heat transfer.
Is this a ‘wobble’ in the climate that Richard Lindzen talks about”?
—–
link to ‘wobble’ reference from Richard Lindzen, a radio interview, starting at the 16:00 minute point :
http://wrko.everyzing.com/m/audio/24111309/richard-lindzen-global-warming-denier.htm?q=%22United+States%22&seek=394.089
Michael Hauber (16:11:52) :
so the current ramp up could be due to the developing el nino
Believe me, there is no el nino at all. Ask anybody living around the south pacific. Check fish catches also.
Greg (17:35:28) :
I live in Ca. Been here since the 50’s. All my relations live across the state.
And relations in Washington State.
We had a heat wave, nothing that special to tip global balances, and before that and after that it has been very cool.
Not in my state was there global scale-tipping heat.
I’ll let Texas speak for themselves.
Anecdotal evidence of local cool temperatures is entirely compatible with high global temps. The entire North American landmass covers less than 5% of the Earth’s surface. Everywhere in the USA could be well below average and barely impact globally averaged temps if positive anomaly is widespread in SH and tropics.
Australia’s anomaly for July was +0.78 (from BoM).
New Zealand’s anomaly for July was -0.4 (from NIWA).
I am one who does not believe in Man being the main driver of climate change, nevertheless, we need to be consistent in our acceptance or rejection of any or all of the 4 major global temperature indices. Just because UAH showed a large jump in global temperatures, does not mean we should now be hypocrites and reject the UAH anomaly which we embraced last month. Temperatures have and will fluctuate and one month does not a trend make. What I find disturbing is that now the AGW’ers and the media will cite July’s temperature as proof that the warming trend has resumed, accelerated, and is “worse than scientists feared,” especially when the NASA GISS numbers are released since they are almost guaranteed to show an even greater increase in global temperatures. Ugh!!!
This warming was expected by me due to the Super Galactic Cosmic Ray event that caused the Sudden Stratosphere Warming in the period January 27-29, 2009. The 15 degree C rise in the lower Stratosphere caused the air molecules to expand which allowed more of the cosmic rays to pass through untouched to the Troposphere where collisions devolved into mesons thence into muons, releasing energy in the process. The increased energy resulted in strong winds in the Arctic region that pushed cold air to the south, causing an unusually cold winter in the Northeast and parts of Europe. By accident the muons were measured in an underground iron mine in Minnesota at the time of the occurrence. There is supposed to be a muon measurement record for the past 50 years but I have been unable to locate it. With the muon measurement data, it should be fairly easy to correlate times with actual weather measurements to gain further insight into causation and impact of SSWs.
I was not expecting this much of a delay nor such a widespread influence on the weather. Since UAH includes 15% of the Stratosphere in their Troposphere temperature measurement I was expecting to see the anomaly rise early on, instead of the continuation of the drop in the anomaly.
There are two flies in my analysis. Firstly, the temperature chart of the Stratosphere shows an average of about 10C rise in January – March for the 30 year anomaly reference period, so something similar to what we are experiencing currently should be seen fairly frequently. I have not seen the raw data so perhaps there are some large numbers mixed with smaller numbers to create the average reference temperature. The January 27 – 29 event was a “Super” galactic cosmic ray event. Analysis of the raw Stratosphere temperature data is required to better understand the magnitude and frequency of a “Super” versus the “Normal” SSW that happens every couple of years. The ice in the Arctic is piled up by high winds and sometimes blown out of the Arctic basin by strong winds, so perhaps these winds are influenced to some extent by SSWs, both normal and super.
The second fly in my analysis is that increases in wind velocity and change in wind direction from the Arctic should be easily observable and measureable. It seems to me that a tie between winds and muons should have been made by now.
I haven’t studied how the changes in wind direction due to SSWs would be reflected in the Antarctic. My gut tells me that the 15C rise caused by the January 27 – 29 event should have been reflected in the UAH data before reaching Antarctica.
Anyway some food for thought.
Well, Seattle had the warmest july on record (the record keeping month is an august), i don’t think a short heat wave in the end of the month would be enough for this, the month was already warm before the heatwave (but just slightly) and in the end got really hot combining for the record, for example the previous record at Sea Tac was 100ºF in 1994 (broken 103ºF), in another city station (Sandpoint Weather Forecast Office, northeast Seattle, kept by NWS) the record was also from the 1994 heat wave but only 96ºF (and this july topped 105ºF), even for a 25-year-old station breaking the previous record by 9ºF is amazing, but NOT all of Washington state was like this, coastal and inland Washington did NOT have all-time record breaking heat, similarly in Texas, record breaking in some areas (mainly south-central) and slightly warm to normal in other areas like Dallas. If we consider only the United States i believe most of it (with notable exceptions) was BELOW NORMAL last july as the number of cool weather records was clearly higher than the hot ones, but the anomaly is for the WORLD, and maybe most parts of the world were warmer than normal, i see no reason to doubt this so far, as the satellite data seems to be the best we have.
Charles,
“There” is here:
http://www.climatedepot.com/a/2199/Aussie-Geologist-says-global-warming-is-new-religion-of-First-World-urban-elites
Mary Hinge (15:21:51)
My guess is that this transient warming is caused by the general tendency toward global cooling and the bulk of the cooling is in the pipeline and will roar back with a vengeance very shortly.
rbateman (17:20:28) “: So Roy, where were the “hot spots” that made this 0.4C jump?”
I made a similar complaint earlier, if not quite as clear, but the fact is that the lower troposphere is not the surface. If both measurements were in agreement we wouldn’t need to measure both and could save lots of money. I’d like to vent about poor satellite maintenance or conspiracies ramping up to Copenhagen, but I rather suspect Dr. Spencer would be among the first to sound the alarm if there were any indication his satellite data was being tampered with. The data simply is what it is. Transparency is required all around. A really good post would be a series of discussions on how satellite data is collected, disseminated and analyzed. Frankly, I don’t know if UAH is drawing its data directly from the satellite, if someone else’s algorithms are running the calibrations and verifications…. But we can’t sit here and cheer when the anomaly goes down and cry foul when it goes up.
Free the data, free the code, free the debate.
In southern New Hampshire we are at long last getting some true summer weather. I cannot describe how depressing the weather was until the end of July. My corn is now ripening, though stunted. The hybrid super-sweet variety is not really all that sweet, this year. I hope the more ordinary varieties, which ripen later, will be sweeter. The tomatoes have a lot of catching-up to do. This has been the coldest summer since the Post-Pinatubo summer, in these parts.
I was fairly surprised when the UAH temps went down last month, due to the warming I could see in maps of Pacific Surface Temps. I am less surprised temps rebounded in July, though the magnitude of the jump does surprise me.
To be quite honest, I am happy to see any sign of warming. Cold weather is truly a hardship, this far north. People fleeing Massachusetts taxes have no idea how rough it can be, even only sixty miles north of Boston. The Indians around pre-Boston grew corn and beans and squash, in the early 1600’s, (little Ice Age,) but not far to the north growing corn wasn’t feasible, and the tribes hunted and gathered wild nuts and cattail root. I don’t want to see any return to those conditions. To cold to grow corn is just plain too cold, in my book.
Some people hope for cold because it will derail Cap-and-Trade and other nonsense. However please don’t pray for cold. Cap-and-Trade can be defeated by people becoming politically active, and going through the Bill with a fine toothed comb, and exposing all the happy horse manure. Please take that route, and avoid imploring the Almighty to freeze us poor folk up here.
TJA (15:06:01) :
I don’t know about trying to read the goat’s entrails month by month. I think we ought to wait a little and see what happens. It still resembles something of a random walk to me. It has definitely gotten warmer around here. Summer showed up a couple weeks ago and it has been delightful.
Sounds like you may be in Southern New England. With the exception of that damn “microburst” that nearly got me last Friday, it has been great here…. of course it was damn miserable and chilly for most of July…. I hope this is not a case of “I hope you enjoy your last meal…..”
rephelan (19:27:42) :
I hope this is not a case of “I hope you enjoy your last meal…..”
Which, of course, beats by a long measure the Iranian practice: “the court sentenced you to death. They sentenced me to be your husband.”
re: Texas speaking for ourselves: Not so much [heat] in ‘these here parts’. We JUST had another cool evening thanks to a thunderstorm complex that moved out of Oklahoma and across the Red River into the DFW (Dallas/Ft. Worth) NC Texas area.
That ‘cool’ wx-is-not-climate low-temperature statistic will have to be balanced against another 100 degree (high temperature) day though, as measured out at the airport (and DFW A/P is Texas-sized to boot).
.
.
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Amir Hawk (16:51:03) :
You are beginning to sound like a Lukewarmer…
Maybe the Nino’s peaked?Hmmm?
On the “ups” and “downs”. Lets not forget, that if we started and stopped the measurements in the middle of the month instead of the beginning and end, we might see a different pattern, perhaps more linear and flat.
bluegrue (16:34:46) : “Mike is 2 inches taller than Peter . . .
Hansen’s observed temp anomaly in 1979 is approximately 0.3°C above the 1951-1980 mean he used as a benchmark. His projected temp anomaly for 2009 for scenario A was 1.4°C and 0.8°C for scenario B. The UAH temp anomaly from late 1979 was right at the 1979-1998 benchmark. The anomaly for July 2009 was 0.41° and about 0.19° for the 13 month smoothing.
Therefore, Hansen’s internal projected three decade rise in temperature anomalies from 1979 was 1.1°C or 0.5°C depending on scenario. The change in the UAH anomaly since 1979 was 0.41°C — 20% below Hansen’s ostensibly “remarkably accurate” prediction. However, as pointed out in a previous thread, the UAH data is monthly. So, looking at the running 13 month average, it looks as though UAH comes in noticeably under 0.2°C — 40% of Hansen’s “remarkably accurate” prediction. Sorry, but I don’t count that as accurate, remarkable or otherwise.
4x – 2y = z
4z – 4y = x . . . solve . . .
It is possible to compare two endeavors with variable benchmarks (Hansen 1988 and UAH today) and conclude accurately that Hansen 1988 really wasn’t at all accurate, let alone “remarkably” so.
Roy Spencer (13:51:36) :
actually, ak was right, Leif. It was his comment that caused me to change the trailing average to a centered average.
I guess I must have seen your figure after you changed it…
Several months ago the enthusiasts were all agog over the temp curve falling off a cliff as we were entering a deep solar minimum. Perhaps the recent reversals of the drop is caused by solar cycle 24 [and 25!] kicking in with a vengeance 🙂
So, let’s see… .4 degrees in a month, that means 5 degrees a year, plus its probably exonential…
My model suggests within ten years, the oceans will be boiling!
Can someone look at change in average change in variance vs. time? (2nd order, acceleration) It appears that this temperature chart has gotten a lot more jumpy in both positive and negative directions especially since 2003.
The RSS satellite detailed temp series (UAH details are not posted yet) shows that the southern hemisphere and the tropics were very warm in July. Northern hemisphere was normal. (This has not been the pattern for a long, long time – traditionally, warming has been ocurring in the northern hemisphere and not in the tropics or the southern hemisphere.
My take on it is, from the 30 day CPC anomaly map is, there is some warmth over the ENSO regions and not much warmth showing up in the rest of the tropics yet from the El Nino. For the southern hemisphere, it looks like all the warmth is concentrated over Antarctica. It has probably been the warmest winter Antarctica has experienced – anomalies have been 5C to 10C warmer this winter – probably an atmospheric event of some kind.
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/rnl/sfctmpmer_30a.rnl.html
God’s chuckling, I bet.
rbateman (16:00:45) : Here, here!
LOL LEIF!!!! “” kicking in with a vengeance 🙂 “”
any how cooling maybe a very slow process …….
antidote is a torch heating water….. nicely heated….
now how long to cool?
The sun is a very nice torch, and it did not ” turn off”
bye bye see ya!
Gene:
link to ‘wobble’ reference from Richard Lindzen, a radio interview, starting at the 16:00 minute point :
FYI…The Lindzen link is timing out, at least for me.
@Roy Spencer & Anthony et al…
Thanks a lot for this update! It has been useful and I really appreciate it. 🙂
Actually, the current warming will be brief and the global cooling will come back by September-October.
Next year things will be worst, I mean, the change of temperature could reach ~0.8 °C from March-April 2010 and ~0.4 °C from February-October 2011.
Many people think that the Earth is leaving a warmhouse period, when in reality it is leaving an icehouse period and undergoing into a warm period.
The carbon dioxide is not the cause of this… warming; carbon dioxide is a result (actually, it is a victim of AGW psychosis) of this shift which is integrated to a longer cycle. An icehouse has ended and a warmhouse period is in progress. Who will stop it? Hah!
If the big warm anomoly is located in the SH near Antartica then it would seem to be unusual in the sense that this is in a SH winter where incoming solar radiation is at a minimum – and zero across most of the Antartica.
Since the more recent SH anomolies have all been near zero then this raises the question where did the heat come from. This would seem to be heat stored in the pipeline, or major satellite data error ?
I’m sure RC will have a field day with this !
There is one thing about this climate change thing I haven’t seen an answer to and that is: Where does the white go when the snow melts?
Sorry, couldn’t help myself!!!
Mary Hinge writes: “The biggest surprise is where the largest increases in lower atmospheric tempeatures are occuring, in sub Antarctica. This is especially evident from the Antarctic coast to Australia.”
Yet, M.Alex writes: “P”urakanui (12:45:43) :
Must have been warm somewhere else, then, because NZ has been well below average for the third month in a row.”
Not only in New Zealand, but also in South Africa where weather has been cold (except for today, 32 degrees C in my hometown) and snow has fallen.”
So obviously powerful MPHs have blasted cold weather in the southern hemisphere during the onset of austral winter but in the regions under the advection path of the warmer air masses displaced by these MPHs, a resulting rise in temperature has been observed. Perhaps we’d reduce the level of specualtion if the coherent atmospheric circulation understanding developped by the late Marcel Leroux was better known…
gtrip (22:21:21) :
There is one thing about this climate change thing I haven’t seen an answer to and that is: Where does the white go when the snow melts?
Sorry, couldn’t help myself!!!
You need a very smart friend like me. When snow melts, the white thing goes to the gravity field. Prove I’m wrong…. Heh! 😀
gtrip (22:21:21) :
Where does the white go when the snow melts?
A candle works not by providing light, but by sucking up the dark. Proof: the wick gets black. So I’ll suggest [but need funding to conclusively prove it] that your white goes to the same place as my black.
This El Nino aint that strong.
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
Hopefully this is close enough on topic.
Regarding Radiative Forcing and this chart: http://www.greenfacts.org/en/climate-change-ar4/images/figure-spm-2-p4.jpg
How much of the ‘Net Anthropogenic’ value is actually observed? Is this a model or actually verifiable?
Sincerely, A grateful amateur who appreciates your input, links and opinion.
I downloaded the SORCE data for TSI. From 1st of July to 29th July the Earth received 38,212.13 W/m^2 of irradiance and for the previous 29 days it was 40,899.10 W/m^2. We received 2,686.97 W/m^2 less and yet the temperature shot up.
This proves the alarmists are right, right? I dont think so.
Let us wait and see (for the next ten years) what the data tells us.
Thank you Dr Roy Spencer and Dr Christie for supplying us honest data.
Thank goodness we have some honest scientists too to counter the hijacking of climate science by a bunch of so called climate scientists who manipulate data to remove all traces of natural climate change and tell outright lies.
Re; Ozzie John (22:20:32)
If you get a big warm anomoly in the SH winter near Antartica does this not indicate outgoing energy, not incoming?
Food for thought…
Professor Richard Linzen, extract from CNS news article ‘Meteorologist Likes Fear of Global warming to ‘Religious Belief’
“Do you believe in global warming? That is a religious question. So is the second part: Are you a skeptic or a believer?” said Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Richard Lindzen, in a speech to about 100 people at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C.
JR Dunn, from A Necessary Apocalypse.
“Another item that a pseudo-religion must have is an apocalypse – and that’s what global warming is all about…In fact, the apocalyptic is the major fulcrum of environmentalism, the axis around which everything else turns.”
And here is a quote from Dr. Roy Spencer:
“It is interesting that the modern belief that our carbon emissions have caused the climate system to rebel are not that different from ancient civilizations that made sacrifices to the gods of nature in their attempts to get nature to cooperate. Technology might have changed over time, but it seems human nature has remained the same.”
I’ve found interesting statistical evidence in support of this, but the powers that be have deemed it unprintable. Such is the power of the truth.
Leif Svalgaard (21:08:43) :
Dr. Leif: You’ve pretty much got me convinced about TSI… but this Cycle 25 stuff is a bit unsettling. If Dr. Archibald were to agree with you on this I think I’d just join my cat under the bed and not come out until maybe Cyle 27… U’d love to see you two agree on something, but this isn’t what I had in mind..
A qualitative comment. It is amazing what one upward spike at the very end of a data series can do to the visual impression of an overall trend. Of course, this is also true in terms of the effect of end points on slopes and regressions. You have to admit that the AGW case looks a lot better with that El Nino-induced spike at the end. You can almost visualize a slow warming throughout the dataset (AGW?), with sea surface temperature anomalies and volcanism producing noise through the series.
Until El Nino hit, I was really beginning to wonder whether the recent cooling was just due to oceanic influences, or whether the weak sun and possible amplifying effects might be responsible for a significant portion of the cooling. I know it may sound fickle and simplistic, but the fact that the upward tick extends toward record territory in the midst of the solar lull makes me feel a lot more comfortable with some of the comments I have made in my work with regard to potential responses to future warming. Nevertheless, I still wonder whether this might be an upward El Nino-induced tick within a new downward trend, so I will continue to avoid such prophetic statements until I am comfortable with them again.
I have read and, to a limited extent, participated in the science, but I remain uncertain. My hunch is that CO2 does cause warming, but less than many of the models indicate because of cherry-picking of parameters, that solar effects are also significant enough for inclusion, and that land-use change is a very important influence that has received too little attention. These remain hunches! Anyone who says they know for sure that it is all natural, or that the long-term trend is all anthropogenic borders on the religious.
Bill Illis (21:26:21) :
“The RSS satellite detailed temp series (UAH details are not posted yet) shows that the southern hemisphere and the tropics were very warm in July.”
So, if the tropics are so warm, where -o- where are all of the tropical storms? Tropical activity has been well below normal in both the Atlantic and Pacific. This has been one of the most weirdest summers that I can ever remember in my 40+ years of following the weather.
Could the lack of tropical storms have something to do with it? Is the upper atmosphere cooler than normal for this time of year? Just wondering if a lack of tropical storms this year has resulted in a lack of heat transfer from the lower atmosphere to the upper layers. My intuition is that if this is the case, the upper atmosphere would be cooler than normal while the lower layers would be warmer.
Cairns in Queensland Australia has been pretty cool last month…. and cloudy during the day.
The extra warmth must have been out over the ocean ‘eh?
rbateman and others:
I think this is a clear proof that, indeed, weather is not climate. To have a better view of what’s going on for the globe, you need to take a look a the world itself, not only at your backyard. In this case, lndia, China, Nothern Africa and Southern Europe have been having some impressive temperatures. A friend of mine was in Sevilla in July and reported me temperatures of about 40-45 degrees (well above average).
My advice would be to go through different weather reports, not only those you can find on WUWT, to get a broader view. On one hand, there were 8 posts about “colder weather” in July on WUWT, not a single one on “hot” records. On the other hand, we had the second highest July global anomaly. You need to find more sources of information.
Anyone else notice that I leave for a few hours and some truly nasty people come out of the wood work? Picking on all kinds of people just for having the gut instinct reaction that something is amiss?
There is nothing wrong with be paranoid per se, and while I don’t agree with those who are “skeptical” of the UAH product (whether they are deniers like myself or believers like some of the bullies) I understand their suspicion. By the way, it’s interesting to note that nobody has noted that the so-called “issue” of the “seasonal cycle” means that this anomaly value is probably spuriously warm (not that the whole jump would be accounted for)! 😆
Roy: “In daily satellite data we find from global ocean averages that SSTs tend to peak 2 weeks before tropospheric temperature, then a minimum in SST is observed two weeks after that. This lag in convective heat transfer is something that the climate models don’t do very well (I’ve been analyzing it in the IPCC models), but it’s not clear what that might mean in terms of long-term climate change.”
Whatever it means, it sounds interesting, at least from an academic standpoint! Publication worthy even!
I would also like to add that I don’t believe much in the el nino/la nina climate/weather driver that I have seen in so many posts and discussions. I do not deny that the el nino/la nina definition (as I understand it) being the measured temperature of warming/cooling of a specific area of the earth. It is not a driver though of weather/climate but just a reflection of the current weather/climate that is happening. The warming of the ocean does affect the weather the same as the warming of land affects the weather. But it is not a predictor of temperatures, rainfall, or lack thereof for a region with certainty.
The el nino/la nina theory is no different then the C02 global warming theory. It is just an “if this happens AND that happens then this must be true’ type of hypothesis. I have seen no conclusive evidence of ENSO prediction that have happened. Can’t you all see that it is no different (the belief in ENSO as a weather/climate driver) as the CO2 climate driver theory? They both have not been “proved”.
If ENSO can be shown to come from inside our planet (volcanic heating), then it might have some credibility as being a weather/climate changer. Until then it is all just theory, using an observed heating of a particular area, and it is a bad theory at that.
So as you all use your static equations for a baseline and then adjust them using new fluid equations that you all deduced (made up) that should and would happen, just try to remember that science is nothing more than trying to figure out why what you OBSERVED happens.
P.S. If “el nino” developes, can one of you put down in writing something that I can go to that shows that your predictions were right? “Mary Hinge” seems to be well versed on ENSO, maybe she can tell us what to expect…but I know they can’t! Can anyone tell me what Hurricane Felicia will do? What if there has been an earth/gravity shift and now the Pacific storms are now showing characteristic of the previous Atlantic storms. What if the sea temps around Hawaii are wrong because they were “corrected”…to be honest, haven’t seen a storm so well defined as this so far north and with a track such as this. NOAA says that it will diminish as it moves over cooler waters at the same time it says that the waters are warmer…I am guessing that the AGW’s are praying for a hit on HI, it will prove their stronger storm theory as Katrina did to N.O.
I will probably get deleted as a kook since I don’t buy the ENSO theory and I know that you all do. As they said back in the day, I am a [snip]. Just Another [snip] Observer….
“Doesn’t take long does it! What a complete reversal from last month. Maybe you can blame these high temperatures on poorly based satellites or UHI….”
It is my contention that there is no one that knows what is happening with climate. We don’t even have enough weather stations in Earth including the 70% of it: Oceans. We can only average Earth temperature having an uniform coverage of Earth. So most of this discussions seems only conjectures over something we don’t know enough.
While Greg (19,02,10) says that the recent July was very wram for Seatle, word about that hasn’t reached my tomatoes in Bainbridge Island — 30 miles off the ccoast of Seattle. I had read that 2009 coolness had resulted in a 20 % reduction in grain production in Canada and the upper US, so the global uptick for July suggest the presence of major regional differences. My background in organizational psychology led me to look for both temperature changes and the hunan consequences of such changes, using wheat production as a measure for the latter. Following the warmists vs skeptics game reported on WUWT has been a fascinating intellectual diversion, and it occured to me that there might also be here-and-now issues for mankind involved as well — something that wouldn’t require 30 or a hundred years to unfold.
What I found was that, from the standpoint of wheat producvtion, the varied weather conditions in different regions work out to produce a 20 % or more reduction in wheat production for 2009 everywhere I looked, with most of the reduction being caused by drought….as in Russia, the Ukraine, Spain, Argentina, Australia, Texas, and big time in western China. I even came across a site http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/07/world-facing-food-crisis-in-second-half.html
This site is really about world prices for soy beans and such, and it is only at the end of an extensive review of such that the author provides his conclusions, which read as follows:
Conclusion: The world is, without a doubt, facing a food crisis in the second half of 2009.
1) Virtually every country in the world is facing double digits declines in food production (for more info, see Terrible Outlook For 2009 Global Wheat Output and World Still Facing A Global Food Crisis and *****Catastrophic Fall in 2009 Global Food Production*****).
2) World (and US) food stocks are at multi-decade lows.
3) Global demand for agricultural commodities is rising, lead by China.
On one last note, isn’t funny how India’s grain reserves are supposedly overflowing, yet the country is banning exports because of one bad crop? Makes you wonder if there are issues with the quality of those grain reserves.
I have no idea as to how much credence these remarks warrent, but it does look to me as though there is going to be less wheat available next year than has been the case in recent years. I hope that someone will comment as to whether or not that would be important.
Finally, my review of regional extended weather conditions brought a chilling (no pun intended) memory to mind of an article by a paleoclimatologist describing the world wide climate changes that would precede the next glaiation. These included rapid loss of agricultural viability in Canada and the upper US, shorter and cooler summers, and major drought conditions in many parts of the world. My personal notion is that we haven’t reached that point yet and that it will get much hotter (as it did, for example, in the Eemian) before the switch to glaciation occurs.
Maybe you should read up before advising people to grow up. The large numbers of Painted Ladies was due to particularly warm temperatures first in North Africa/Southern Europe then Northern Europe in June. They were trying to find suitable food plants but because it had been so warm and dry they had to go further north to cooler environs. Good thing they are very strong fliers!
This is also in the lower troposhere temperature anomolies here http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_monthly.html
The Antarctic figures are especially interesting, whilst the tropics have increased considerably since June. Very interesting, will be fascinating to see what UAH brings.
OT
Good news; it seems that we just have “psychological barriers”
to climate change acceptance. We can be healed. I feel as if a
great weight has been lifted.
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/22/20090805/tsc-environment-us-climate-psychology-011ccfa.html
Michael Hauber: “It isn’t CO2, because that only causes about 0.0015 degrees increase each month. Just like the previous short term cooling trend was not Co2, or the failure of Co2 to warm, but something else.”
Really? Care to illustrate where you got that figure of 0.0015 degrees from.
Mary Hinge (01:33:23) : As Kramer said, it’s all about levels…. What is it exactly you are trying to say there Mary Hinge…Data without a cause is nothing more than a James Dean movie. Give us some concrete….concrete is good, it’s strong and stable… Don’t [snip] up the lives of our future people because you have a hobby or something. Parade your wares and sell them and if they are bought then maybe we will listen. If they are Politically bought then maybe we will rebel against the status quo which appears to be nothing more than a fraud.
Reply: I’m tired of snipping profanity or implied profanity. Profanity is a violation of blog rules and in the future entire posts may simply be deleted. ~ charles the moderator
Remember, you all said upper air analysis was and has always been bad data. I used to gather and plot said data and I find your impression of my work to be nothing more than self aggrandizing of yourself. You all live in a world of models but have no proof and we are supposed to take your assumptions as gospel. Sorry, can’t do that.
Weather and Climate naturally changes. How about if we call you non believers of natural climate change “nature deniers” and force society into believing that you are all left wing socialists. Then we can battle political ideologies instead of science…
I am sick of all of this…This is not science, it is job security…..
Flanagan:
Sevilla is the hottest place in Europe: I was there in 1988 and then it was 46 degree C, Sevilla has the European temperature record, 50 degree C. But that was in 1881…, do not visit the inner part of Spain in July and August stay along the coast the difference is 10-15 degree C.
Not all of Southern Europe has been hot, places like Rome, Nice and Lissabon have been colder than normal
The graph indicates two clear periods:
i. 1979 – 1997, which was cooler than the mean.
ii. 1998 to present, which has been warmer than the mean.
The shift was triggered by the strong 1997/98 El Nino.
Any anecdotal indications from further back in history that equally strong La Nina’s can trigger a multidecadal shift in temperature pattern?
Pieter F (21:01:51) :
4x – 2y = z
4z – 4y = x . . . solve . . .
x:y:z≡4:5:6
Sorry- couldn’t resist
I’ve read the jetstream has stayed much closer to the tropics than usual for this time of year, at least in the NH. Would that explain the split between northern and southern parts of North America and Europe, as concerns weather ? Roughly speaking, the northern states of the USA and Canada have been experiencing a “no-summer” situation. In Europe : a “middle country” like France has been split in two : its northern part with usual to miserable summer (like the Bristish Isles), when the southern part has had very high temps (Corsica, at about the same latitude as Barcelona in Spain and Roma in Italy has experienced all time highs). Am I discovering a well known evidence that the jetstream position has prevented tropical heat from spreading towards the poles, thus explaining lousy weather on the one part and at the same time very hot weather on the other part ?
Mr Van Burgel’s post (Aug 5, 18:46) might be telling it’s been the same in the Southern Hemisphere.
Then what makes the jetstreams move in latitude ?
This will be “global warming”. The La Nina last year was….just natural variation….
Moderators. I’ve said it before – the name ‘Mary Hinge’ is a profanity in the UK. It’s a Spoonerism…
Mary Hinge (01:33:23) : and John Phillips (16:30:59) :
There is one set of temperature data I trust and that is UAH and RSS to an extent also. The Satellite temperatures are a more accurate representation of a “global temperature” than than the Hadley or GISS “Land Ocean Global Mean”, for one simple reason, even if the data itself were not suspect, and that is that a mean of air temperatures and sea water temperatures dont make any sense.
The Satellite temperatures cover the whole globe much more uniformly and are some representation of the air temperatures of the various layers of the atmosphere.
July was warm on the whole globally – no question about it – but so what? England was cool and so has New Zealand been, though now, I must say, it is comparatively mild compared to our early winter. Other places have been warm and hot. That proves nothing either way.
The main thing that makes me a sceptic of the AGW hypothesis is that the data does not support their alarmist dangerous warming predictions.
We have been warmer than today during the medieval warm period and probably much of the Holocene. The attempt of Mann, Jones etc to obliterate this evidence is nothing short of shameful. If warming has taken place in our recent past “naturally” without any increase of CO2, there is no reason to assume any other cause for our present warm period, or have any cause for alarm. That I think is the important issue.
If you look at the historical SST records, you can see there were some almighty whacking great el nino events in the late 1800’s as the ocean cooled down towards 1900.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadsst2gl/detrend/mean:24
We should expect to see the same now, maybe even more pronounced, as the ocean heat content is higher now than at any time since the end of the medieval maximum.
It may well be a record breaker soon, but that is, if correctly understood, a signal that the oceans are in heat release mode. After the el nino settles down, the oceans will be left with less total heat content, and temperatures will then fall to levels below the peak years of the earlier 2000’s.
Enjoy the warmth, keep your cool, and smile when the AGW proponents witter about global warming renewed. In a year or two, it’ll swing the other way.
gtrip (22:21:21) : “Where does the white go when the snow melts?”
Leif Svalgaard (22:50:55) : “A candle works not by providing light, but by sucking up the dark. Proof: the wick gets black.”
Foul!
Neither of you factored in the dead moth.
What is your point, are you ignoring the data because it doesn’t fit your beliefs? We have very interesting data here with significant temperature rise and, despite the throwaway remark about El Nino in the opening paragraph, no ENSO reason for this. The data is consistent with other sources so would seem ‘concrete’. Instead of ignoring it because there doesn’t seem to be any ’cause’ it makes much more sense to find out what is causing this rapid increase in global temperatures.
Brandon Dobson (23:36:08) : “… Food for thought…”
It is a very low-key blog, or forum, but I would welcome the opportunity to publish your work on Stay Warm, World, Brandon (click on my name above to view it). You can send it to me at RogerCarr AT datacodsl.com
Sounds very much along my lines of thinking.
The only real anomaly was the cold June.
2003 and 2006 both saw similar warm-ups of the UAH LT from April to September-November.
2003.4 to 2003.8 — 0.3C (.05 to .35)
2006.4 to 2006.9 — 0.35C (0.0 to 0.35)
2009.4 to 2009.6 — 0.41 C (0.0 to 0.41)
The June drop-out is the only really odd thing… Unless August through November anomalies continue to increase, this is just a regular. run-of-the-mill ENSO.
Oh, how cruel you are, Anthony! All your frequent posts about a bit of cool weather somewhere in the word have so misled your readers that many of them are clearly confused and upset by even one month of rising global temperatures. Perhaps you need to make it clearer, whenever you are posting about cold weather, that you are deliberately highlighting things that are unrepresentative of the whole.
It seems that the most heat anomaly comes from the antarctic, from Lucia’s board:
http://rankexploits.com/musings/2009/noaa-surface-temperature-animation-for-july/ .
Here is a temperature map of the antarctic http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Antarctic_surface_temperature.png
Now look at the two maps and gauge: does it really matter that from -70 the temperature went to -55C?
or from -10C to -7?
It certainly will not melt, it certainly is not from CO2, no CO2 in the winter in the antarctic, it certainly is not the sun.
It just shows vividly how nonsensical is the concept of global average temperature and anomalies thereof. Temperatures are not additive linearly and the whole thing has no obvious meaning except for people who see the sky falling.
Rather the meaning, for me, is that there has been a large movement of cold air being replaced by warmer air over the antatctic: some places must be getting really cold, as can be seen in a finer graph provided by a commenter at Lucia’s http://web1.cdc.noaa.gov/map/ANIM/sfctmpmer_01a.fnl.14.gif more clearly than in the Noa plot above, the cold going down to south america and south africa.
Richard (23:14:05) :
I downloaded the SORCE data for TSI. From 1st of July to 29th July the Earth received 38,212.13 W/m^2 of irradiance and for the previous 29 days it was 40,899.10 W/m^2. We received 2,686.97 W/m^2 less and yet the temperature shot up.
For the previous 29 days we received 38,252.21 W/m2, not 40,899.10
Dr David Jones of Ferny Creek (15:40:16) :
That makes July 2009 the second warmest July on record.
It would be the warmest were if not “adjusted”.
Perhaps on paper, but not from my personal experience. In the mid-south where I live, typically, July is lower-to-mid 90s for highs every year. This year we’ve had an 70’s and 80’s for the most part with an occasional 90. This has truly been the coolest July I’ve ever experienced. One morning I had to wear long sleeves as it was unseasonably cool.
Do we get a map of the temperature highs and lows? While the Med has been hotter than average, northern Europe has been decidedly cool.
Mary Hinge wrote: “They [painted lady butterflies] were trying to find suitable food plants but because it had been so warm and dry they had to go further north to cooler environs. Good thing they are very strong fliers!”
You mean critters adapt to changing weather patterns by moving? Who’d have thought it?
For all the people grousing about the “weather,” with the exception of the Pacific Northwest and interior Australia, most of the hot spots this past month were over oceans:
http://www.remss.com/data/msu/graphics/tlt/medium/global/ch_tlt_2009_07_anom_v03_2.png
Unseasonably cool temperatures in the US east of the Rockies, in South America, and in South Africa are apparent on the above map. Great Britain is undoubtedly being affected by the anomalously cool North Atlantic. Notice that north central Asia (Siberia) is devoid of red in the above map. It will be interesting to see if GISS smoothing creates a big blue blob for July in this region, from dragging the few stations in this area over a continent size land mass.
I like to follow these maps, for surface temperatures, on a weekly basis:
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/synop/td20090708_e.png
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/synop/td20090715_e.png
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/synop/td20090722_e.png
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/synop/td20090729_e.png
and for good measure
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/synop/td20090805_e.png
Everybody who says that what they are seeing outside their window doesn’t match up with the MSU satellite measurements for July, look at the above maps and see what they shows for your neck of the woods. In the most recent map, interior Australia has gone blue again, cooling off noticeably from 3-4 weeks prior.
Then there are the oceans:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/cmb/sst_analysis/images/archive/weekly_anomaly/wkanomv2_20090708.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/cmb/sst_analysis/images/archive/weekly_anomaly/wkanomv2_20090715.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/cmb/sst_analysis/images/archive/weekly_anomaly/wkanomv2_20090722.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/cmb/sst_analysis/images/archive/weekly_anomaly/wkanomv2_20090729.png
You can see the progression of “El Nino conditions” over the tropical Pacific, plus the development of a large warm pool in the south Atlantic.
One major area of discrepancy I see, between these SST maps, and the RSS global map is the southern Pacific. While the southern Pacific (look eastward from the tip of South America) is warming somewat the month, the SST maps never turn yellow in this region, meaning temps stay at or below (the green areas) the anomaly baseline. But the RSS map has a big red blob in this region. What’s up with that?
So what is going to happen with GISS and HadCRUT? If things stay true to form, they will not bump up as much as the RSS/UAH estimates have. The satellite measurements traditionally show greater variation than the surface temp land-sea based measurements do. Since July was likely something of a local peak or spike in the grand scheme of things, the corresponding peak or spike in GISS/HadCRUT should be something less. Again, watch for a big blue blob over northern Asia this month in GISTemp.
So what about satellites?
July certainly was not warmer in northern Vermont above 44 N latitude. We have seen one day of sun for very five days of rain this summer. It was a cooler July than normal with lots of rain and little sunshine. The flocks of summer migratory birds that nest in our pasture skipped the second brood in July, packed up a month early, and left ten days ago. They must have forgot their houseboats this year as the pasture was under heavy rains most of the month. The grass and flowers are doing well but food crops are taking a hit. A farm in the warmer, and normally drier Champlain Valley of Vermont, lost its entire tomato crop to blight. The Vermont agriculture department also warned of potato blight this summer.
Lets get some perspective here. Today is the funeral of Harry Patch aged 111, the last person to have fought in the trenches of WW1. Imagine how the world has changed since his birth in 1898, imagine all the things he has seen. Of all the things i can think of i cannot convince myself that the fact that the world warmed slightly should be high on the list nor when i think of the future does the idea that it might warm slightly more concern me.
Mary Hinge
Did you just make this up “The large numbers of Painted Ladies was due to particularly warm temperatures first in North Africa/Southern Europe then Northern Europe in June” (to borrow a movie line) That is not entirely accurrate, Mr President.
This migration was a result of POPULATION EXPLOSION due to a wet winter in Africa that fuelled a large survial rate due to food plants were available for caterpillers. In other words a GREENER Africa was responsible because of increased rain in a COOLER winter season.
The butterflies are migrating as normal but in numbers far greater than normal, not due to climate along their path as was eluded to, but hey the narrative fits the preconception so who am I to question.
>——
“Painted ladies reach our shores every summer, but the last major migration was in 1996. This year, rumours of an impending invasion began circulating in late winter. A Spanish scientist, Constanti Stefanescu, reported seeing hundreds of thousands of them emerging in Morocco in mid-February after heavy winter rains in north Africa triggered the germination of food plants devoured by its caterpillars.” – UK Guardian Newspaper ( Wednesday 27 May 2009 )
Ed (22:05:39) :
Gene:
link to ‘wobble’ reference from Richard Lindzen, a radio interview, starting at the 16:00 minute point :
FYI…The Lindzen link is timing out, at least for me.
It is a slow opening page. Do you use Firefox browser? You could say it is faster and stronger than Windows browser. Firefox is a free download. Maybe that will fix the problem.
link to Firefox
http://www.mozilla.com/en-US/
link to the Richard Lindzen interview again :
http://wrko.everyzing.com/m/audio/24111309/richard-lindzen-global-warming-denier.htm?q=%22United+States%22&seek=394.089
Today’s NOAA SST:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2009/anomnight.8.6.2009.gif
7/23/09:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2009/anomnight.7.23.2009.gif
It appears that the ENSO is not building-infact it seems to be weakening…
Bob Tisdale (02:03:41) :
Michael Hauber: “It isn’t CO2, because that only causes about 0.0015 degrees increase each month. Just like the previous short term cooling trend was not Co2, or the failure of Co2 to warm, but something else.”
Really? Care to illustrate where you got that figure of 0.0015 degrees from.
I’d like to see it too! Why didn’t he pick 0.0016, or 0.0014? 😉
ENSO affects are not turned on or off. El Nino vs La Nina is not some hard shelled lightbulb with a switch. And oceans care not one wit for what month it is. What we are seeing is interseason variability with El Nino neutral affects. Neutral does not mean there are no affects. On the contrary, vehemently so. This means that we could have slightly cooler temps, slightly warmer temps, slightly dryer air, and/or slightly wetter air. Any weather person willing to predict under neutral conditions has cahones.
But the idea that ENSO is neutral and therefore cannot be the cause is not logical and reveals a lack of understanding of trade winds, oceanic conditions, and jet stream affects of weather pattern variations. The ONI index is slightly positive but in neutral territory. We could get anything but only a little bit of anything. We will not be overly hot, nor overly cold. That said, extremes are still a possibility but more so only locally. You can safely disregard both solar and CO2. This is mother nature pure and simple.
Roy Spencer (16:48:33) :
Large month-to-month changes in tropospheric temperature are likely to be dominated by non-radiative transfers of heat, that is, changes in the rate at which convection transfers heat from the surface to the atmosphere.
Surface to atmosphere transfer will still be dominated by long wave radiation, distribution within the troposphere will be dominated by convection.
Since June surface temperatures were so high, the July warming of the troposphere might just be reflecting that temporary increase in heat transfer. In the tropics, intraseasonal oscillations are the largest source of this variability.
I suggest that there is a real possibility that the July spike is closely related to the July 22nd solar eclipse which was one of the longest eclipses in the last 100 years . As the sun and moon come into conjunction we are simply seeing the combined gravity effect pulling up the atmosphere – this appears as a warming which is enhanced by the current El Nino warming over the tropical Pacific. We might look at past records to see if similar effects can be observed, The correlation betwen temperature spikes and eclipses will not be simple as the effects would vary according to whether El Nino or La Nina conditions prevailed and the declination of the moon etc. etc.
Douglas, I’ve been watching the El Nino conditions weaken for the entire month of July. Given the definition of what constitutes and El Nino event, there is no way that can happen this winter. It appears more likely that the powers that be will have to change their tune from El Nino condition to El Nino neutral pretty darned soon or continue to look like a playpen instead of a scientific body.
I plotted the ENSO Multivariate Index for 1997, 2006 and 2009…
ENSO Multivariate Index
2009 looks a whole lot more like 2006 than it does 1997.
Richard Heg wrote:
“Lets get some perspective here. Today is the funeral of Harry Patch aged 111, the last person to have fought in the trenches of WW1. Imagine how the world has changed since his birth in 1898, imagine all the things he has seen. Of all the things i can think of i cannot convince myself that the fact that the world warmed slightly should be high on the list nor when i think of the future does the idea that it might warm slightly more concern me.”
Let’s get even more perspective here. Imagine the funeral of Perry Hatch 80 years from now, the last person to have fought in Gulf War II and having survived not only the war, but also the effects of experimental vaccination, depleted uranium and hamburgers and pizza served by Halliburton or some other beneficiary of the war. Imagine all the things he will see. Somehow I cannot convince myself that the not so slight warming that will occur if AGW will turn out to be true will not be high on the list.
Well, after a warm week up here on Vancouver Island where the mercury hit over thirty six degrees Celsius, which is above the seasonal average. Temperatures now are down to the low 20’s again with rain forecast for Sunday, which is below the seasonal average. Nice Weather. On average.
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps
Appears that the trend is downward now….any thoughts? Can someone explain how many data points this graph contains? Where is the data coming from ect?
With regard to Antarctica, Svensmark’s theory of cloud nucleation by galactic cosmic rays indicates that when GCRs are few, global cloudiness decreases (including over Antarctica). This raises the frozen continent’s albedo, cooling it (clean ice having a higher albedo than clouds). Conversely, when GCRs are many, global cloudiness increases (including over Antarctica). The continent’s albedo declines, and the atmosphere warms.
All of that relates to a full year of weather, of course, albedo not pertaining during the dark winter months. But clouds’ tendency to act as a blanket would pertain. It would be interesting, therefore, to learn what the amount of cloud cover over Antarctica has been this winter. If it has been unusually high, for whatever reason, the explanation for the anomalous warmth could be as simple as that.
LionelB (02:42:03)
I’ve previously suggested that the air circulation systems move poleward or equatorward in direct response to changes in the rate of energy release from the oceans.
You have correctly noted the cooler conditions poleward of the jets and warmer conditions equatorward of them.
The latitudinal positions of the air circulation systems globally tell us whether the global air temperature is rising or falling.
At present there is a slight rise in air temperatures after a cooling period. That has been caused by the rate of energy emission from the oceans increasing somewhat. The downside is that the ocean heat content is being depleted unless the sun is putting enough solar shortwave into the oceans to counter the loss.
The purpose of the latitudinal movement of the air circulation systems is to adjust the speed of the hydrological cycle ( which ensures approximate long term equilibrium between solar shortwave arriving at the Earth and longwave leaving it whilst at the same time maintaining approximate sea surface/surface air temperature equilibrium).
The change in speed of the hydrological cycle directly affects the rate of energy transfer from surface to space and in doing so prevents changes in the air alone from affecting the global equilibrium temperature set by sun and oceans combined.
The difference between average TSI in June 09 with respecto to July 09 is only +0.03 W/m^2. For the last 29 days of June and the period 1st July-29th July the difference is -0.08 W/m^2.
By the way, gifts and sacrifices will be accepted at 6:00 pm each day. Why? I apparently have found favor with mother nature. I mowed the lawn yesterday and then just minutes later the sky opened its zipper and peed like a drunkard. Complete with ice pellets, winds, and bolts of lightening! I prefer cash.
LionelB: I’m not sure of this. Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands had a hot Spring, June was very hot, July was hotter than normal but not excessively hotter. August started OK: we have 30 C rightnow. Temperatures are supposed to “plunge” over the weekend… and reach the norm (22 C).
Pamela Gray (07:03:20) :
Any weather person willing to predict under neutral conditions has cahones
First of all, in spanish your last word would be improper for a lady to pronounce. But, going to the problem. Any weather person who can have access to this graph (Geoff Sharp’s): http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/category/new-research/
Or this , from our co-blogger Vukcevic:
http://www.geocities.com/vukcevicu/PolarField1Cr.gif
knows the future.
Pieter F (16:10:32) :
No, about 0.8°C on GISTEMP scale, about 0.5°C on UAH/RSS or about 0.6 on HadCrut. From Scenario B, as this scenario matches most closely the actual history of the forcing, no matter what the original labels were.
Pamela Gray (07:03:20) : I agree. It’s just that at my Co. meeting we have a Warmist who “Heard on the evening New two weels ago that Nino was here.””HEELP Algor, Gaia
SaaaaveUUS!” She regards any one who doesn’t believe as a ignorant clinger. My Boss is an ex-Coast Guard officer,and the another is a retired (but not ex-Marine) who was a weather forcaster.She believes what say, Ann Curry or even Kieth Olbermann says.But sicence! ha you aren’t attuned to what is really going on-infidels!
I made the comment of a weak to moderate ENSO and had that thrown back in my face..
wonder what the ARGO buoy system is telling us about ocean temps ?
I’m guessing that the slow heat loss of the last few years is continuing. The heat has to come from somewhere.
In the UK, July was cooler than the standard reference period 1970-2000! By 0.4c. It was also the wettest on record!
Folks, before you start blathering about “failing wheat crops,” and “starvation,” DO A LITTLE RESEARCH. “ALARMIST” rhetoric is unseemly from “either” side of the aisle.
Wheat prices are DOWN 45% from a year, ago. The world is swimming in wheat. And, Corn. And, Soybeans.
http://charts.aghost.net/popup/agonlineCharts.cfm?key=38103A48-EB6A-454C-A70D-16C8156C38BD&cid=2052&sid=1&symbol=W9U
Dave, you have developed an infant version of one of the statistical models used by NOAA to predict El Nino. 3 out of the 8 statistical models predict neutral conditions. The dynamical models (what we propose are the mathematical coded mechanisms in 14 different versions) are a relatively newcomer to predictions and I believe NOAA got into the act of developing them because IPCC brought them to popular standing. In the NOAA website they discuss the difference between the two types of models and are humble enough to say that the statistical models are used as the measuring stick of the dynamical models. Would that the IPCC be as humble.
The weakly positive SOI value for July tells me this El Nino will likely be a dud.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soi2.shtml
I expect it to compeltely fizzle by the end of the year.
Mary, your back peddling has splashed mud on my post! Can’t you just say thank you for the information you were given?????
It is true that we (on WUWT) do not hear much about WX in China or India, even though there are many smart people with computers there.
Maybe their climatescientists do not believe in AGW, so normal people, frankly, don’t give a damn.
The Hansen scenarios are dynamical models with calculated forcings based on different CO2 ppm conditions. Therefore B is wrong (it has a much lower CO2 ppm code than is currently the estimated case in the atmosphere). Its calculations and resultant temps do not in any way match current conditions. According to their model for current CO2 ppm, we should be LOTS hotter.
Jimmy Haigh (03:46:18) :
Moderators. I’ve said it before – the name ‘Mary Hinge’ is a profanity in the UK. It’s a Spoonerism…
Jimmy, thanks. I had to look it up, but it’s a great day when you learn something new.
Kum, take a lesson from Mary Hinge. Your post will bite you in the arse.
Stephen Wilde (07:27:06) : Behind air circulation it is, as you know, the Length of the Day, which UN’s FAO uses to forecast, among others, anchovy catches in the pacific, and it works quite well.
See: http://www.giurfa.com/fao_temps.jpg
It is a model which backed by reality works.
Mary Hinge
Nice try but you cannot claim one thing and get away with saying it was the primary cause and then fall back on other conditions based on the fact they start their migration in the spring. POPULATION was the driver not the climate, the population exhausted the food sources and migrated in greater numbers. Simple logic dictates that more butterflies = increased habitat for support.
The Butterflies have a 23 day life span in total with about 14 days for migration, so based on that and the arrival time in the UK in May they are on the 4th Generation at that point, so if there was no food for the caterpillers than the population would be much less based on survivability rates for larve. Since the numbers arriving were great then one can only come to the conclusion that suitable foliage was found to support the migration over multiple generations.
So your assertion of climate forcing them to range farther is again proven invalid based on the lifecycle of the insect when compared to the migration timeline ( first arrivals in the UK in May, NOT JUNE).
rbateman (18:17:56) :
…
Not in my state was there global scale-tipping heat.
I’ll let Texas speak for themselves.
Texas. It’s like a whole ‘nother country….here in north Texas, we’ve had a pretty reasonable summer. Cool wet spring, hot June, moderate July, the lakes are full — and that’s great news. South Texas – constant heat and sparse rain. I have palm trees on a property near Corpus Christi that are distressed from lack of rain. I think I’d like a nice tropical storm to come ashore between Corpus and Brownsville and then turn north. Where are those storms anyway?
First shot.
In NE Oregon, red winter wheat (the preferred bread flour kind) is ready to harvest if we get just a few more dry days (the moisture content is still a bit too high). Alas, that will not be happening. The wheat that has not been harvested yet will get rained on and will sprout right on the stalks in the fields. That is those that are left standing after the storm. So no, the farmers here are NOT swimming in wheat. I don’t give a damn about anywhere else.
Second shot.
News reports everywhere say that the corn harvest is down. The ears are smaller and many fields were swamped in water and died before the crop could be harvested. The market is down because the ethanol plants that used at least some of the corn have gone out of business.
Third shot.
Soy beans are a cool weather plant. Good for them.
Anybody else want a go at it?
rephelan (19:11:51) : BTW, do they adjust satellites with surface stations?, that would be sound if these were OK and not like Anthony has showed us they are.
Taking into consideration that Copenhaguen is ahead…. After it is approved chances are temperatures will decrease.
bluegrue (07:51:34) : No, about 0.8°C on GISTEMP scale, about 0.5°C on UAH/RSS or about 0.6 on HadCrut. I agree with your numbers, but those are are averages. Throw in +/-.5° excursions on top of those numbers, and that is what we should be expecting. Problem is there is nothing, observation-wise, on the high side of those means, ie. we should be seeing anomalies at and above 1°C according to the models. Does anone have a sigma for the UAH anomalies? I’m taking a guess at it being ~.25°.
So what is this, the differential between surface temperatures and out going radiation, or just a lag of the June heat wave? As I live on the surface and not up in the troposphere, I know which temperatures matter to me, July has been cold in both hemispheres. http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/forums/p/22784/746890.aspx#746890
We could, easily, set a new record for corn “yields” this year. From NCGA:
http://corncommentary.com/
This might have something to do with July.
http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/OLR/ts.r4.l.gif
I’ve made a graph comparing sst’s between 1878-1892(green) and 1998-2009(red)
with solar cycle 12 below in red.
http://s630.photobucket.com/albums/uu21/stroller-2009/?action=view¤t=sst-1892.gif
As you can see, the timing with the solar cycle is similar to today, with the current el nino arriving in an extended minimum. Cycle 12 made an Rmax of 74ish compared to cycle 23 at 130 or so, and the sea surface temps consequently rose 0.2C or so less (take note Leif) after the recovery from the big el nino of 1878.
On the basis of this comparison, I’d estimate that SST’s will rise another 0.1-0.15C by October, and then the el nino will begin to fade, with SST dropping below Jan 2007 levels by November 2010.
2010/2011 will be a nasty winter.
Plan ahead, grow some extra food next year while it’s warm.
Pamela, Ethanol production is up 2 Billion Gallon/Yr from this time last year. Production jumped 500 Million Galllon/Yr in just the last month.
Grains are an International Market. The Midwestern “Corn Growing” states are predicting very nice yields.
Climate Heretic (08:24:04) :
But if the food was available futher south…….
To all who keeps saying that if the temperature rises (or presumably falls) we’ll just adapt therefore GW does not matter.
Well if you say crops are failing because of the cold and disaster is upon us then why not simply adapt?
or is it perhaps a little more tricky than you thought?
Oh, I forgot to put up the link for ethanol production.
http://www.ethanolrfa.org/industry/locations/
Pamela Gray (08:18:33) :
Kum, take a lesson from Mary Hinge. Your post will bite you in the arse.
Lake a tesson from Hary Minge. Your bost will pite you in the arse.
It’s difficult to say for certain which scenario is the most appropriate to use.
“A” fits the actual CO2 concentrations since 1988… But the other trace gases fall below “A”… CH4 is pretty close to “C”.
From 1988-2009 Hansen’s model shows…
“A” shows the anomaly grow from about 0.2C to 0.95C… Net +0.75C
“B” shows the anomaly grow from about 0.2C to 0.8C… Net +0.6C
The anomaly exceeds 1.0C on “A” in late 2009 and on “B” in early 2010.
UAH’s average anomaly for 1988 was 0.11C… So far the average 2009 anomaly is 0.20C… Net +0.09C.
.75/.09 = 6.46
.80/.09 = 8.08
Hansen’s “A” predicted 8 times (600%) as much warming as UAH recorded from 1988-2009 and “B” predicted 6.5 times (650%) as much warming.
Even if I use a 0.41 anomaly for 2009… Hansen’s “A” is 400% of- and “B” is 300% of the UAH warming.
**************
Kum Dollison (08:58:41) :
Pamela, Ethanol production is up 2 Billion Gallon/Yr from this time last year. Production jumped 500 Million Galllon/Yr in just the last month.
Grains are an International Market. The Midwestern “Corn Growing” states are predicting very nice yields.
********************
I guess we can all look forward to much higher food prices — or maybe the humans can just start eating algae. That seems to be where the warmists want us to go.
Lol, Englishmen who live in Suffolk are sceptical of all enthusiasm?
***************
Phil. (07:03:47) :
Roy Spencer (16:48:33) :
Large month-to-month changes in tropospheric temperature are likely to be dominated by non-radiative transfers of heat, that is, changes in the rate at which convection transfers heat from the surface to the atmosphere.
Surface to atmosphere transfer will still be dominated by long wave radiation, distribution within the troposphere will be dominated by convection.
***********************
Hey Phil. What % heat is transferred via radiation vs. convection – IYO.
Western Washington was hot, for about 4 days. Now it’s in the mid-60s. A drop of almost 40 degrees from last week. Still waiting for the mass extinctions from such wild temperature fluctuations.
This is great news for the Pacific SW of the USA. I was getting tired of the pathetically weak rainy seasons we had the past three years.
The world is not swimming in grain.
“The International Finance Corporation, the World Bank’s private sector arm, will boost lending to agribusiness by up to 30 per cent in the next three years, as it promotes the role of the private sector in the fight against hunger.”
“After focusing on oil, metals and minerals for decades, Japan’s huge trading houses are turning to agricultural commodities, with Tokyo enthusiastically supporting the shift amid concerns about local and global food security.”
“World leaders on Friday pledged to commit $20bn over three years for a “food security initiative” to develop agriculture in poor countries, but aid agencies responded with scepticism, pointing to a chain of broken promises and a habit of switching around existing budgets.”
Note the common theme – food security. Hardly jives with a world that’s likely to remain “swimming in grain” is it?
You don’t believe in global warming alarmism?? Oh, you mean you don’t believe the alarming predictions will come true. Different thing altogether. The alarmism is definitely there, but so far nothing alarming, climatically, has happened.
Pamela, I know you love your state; and I’m sorry the local farmers are facing a poor corn crop this year, But E. Oregon is classified as “High Desert.” It’s not, really, prime “corn growing” real estate.
I can sympathise. I grew up trying to raise corn on sub-optimal land. Finally, we got lucky, and switched to watermelons. Life got a lot better.
My take is that the concept of a “global average or mean temperature” is a meaningless concept. If some places cool, some remain relatively static, and some warm, then there is clearly nothing “global” occurring, just lots of little regional things which aren’t connected.
bill (09:16:42) :
or is it perhaps a little more tricky than you thought?
We are more prepared as in the past, indeed, than during the LIA…but it depends if you have enough and dependable energy or not…if you are to depend on windmills with an efficiency of 2.53% (as reported here a few weeks ago, being the figure in Finnland) you will be in real trouble.
Do you remember “Atom for Peace”?, Those were the years of the “Green revolution”in agriculture also, evrything looked OK…until some prophets of doom appear.
Exactly. While Seattle and south was still hot, up in the San Juans it had cooled to the mid-70s, and then mid-60s. Because the winds had changed.
thechuckr (18:52:57) :
Hey!, show me you driver’s license. What if you are next to a volcano, are you still the climate driver?
In view of anything in the future of climate, if we have enough energy, as nuclear, we can manage ourselves happily under any circumstances.
But, as things go on, we’ll have broken by snow windmills (not by WUWT), solar panels covered with ice and…frozen bones.
Your market stats are true. But our ethanol plant in Hermiston went out of business before it even went on line. Global ethanol data won’t help a NE Oregon farmer make a profit this year if he planted a bunch of corn hoping to get it to the plant.
Markets are local in terms of producers staying in business, and global in terms of the stock market price and consumer price. I don’t care about global data. I care about local data. Temperatures affect local data to a far greater degree than global data. The fact that Susie Que went bust on her wheat crop (and her neighbors as well) because of a harvest time rain storm, does not show in your statistics on global markets. The fact that corn IS down in some areas will not reflect in your global statistics. Global statistics do not tell true stories about gain or loss in local farming communities.
That said, if you want to invest in the market, you have the data right, don’t go by what a local farmer says (or me) about his or her loss or gain. And don’t go by what the weather has been like in Idaho. You will lose your shirt if you do.
But if you, Kum, want to start a wheat farm in NE Oregon, forget what the market says. Pay close attention to the weather (and what causes it) and whether or not you have a market you can afford to ship to. If you don’t, you will lose your shirt.
In terms of NE Oregon, ethanol production is down because we don’t have a plant anymore. Wheat (which looks like a bumper crop in the field right now) harvest (you don’t get paid for a high yield till you take that bumper crop off the field) depends on precious few days of perfect weather which we don’t seem to be getting.
Here is a little risk factor for you regarding wheat. Widely distributed unstable weather can ruin the best predictions for wheat that is ready to harvest within a 24 hr period. Corn not so much. Those that invest in agriculture markets should gain some knowledge about the risks of each type of product and invest accordingly.
For wheat, frost will kill the early plant and rain will ruin the harvest. Anything inbetween is not so devastating except for drought. Since much of our wheat is dryland wheat, a drought will kill it. For corn, irrigation keeps it from dieing from lack of water. Too much rain and you will get smaller ears but you will still get ears. The drawback is if you have clay soil that doesn’t drain and then the crop will die in the field. But taken together, corn is a good bet from year to year. Wheat is much more volatile because of its sensitivity to weather and therefore much harder to predict till the crop is in.
Let me give you another take on this. When the weather is predicted to be bad, farmers work 24 hr periods to get hay up and wheat off the field. They go all night and all day, catch some z’s, and then start up again. And worry about feeding their families inbetween if they can’t get er done. Even when the market says that things are peachy.
Nogw (09:49:11) : …but it depends if you have enough and dependable energy or not
So you are going to warm/cool your crops with nuclear power. Thats a new one on me!
I thought people here were suggesting that warm/cool tolerant crops are grown or moving farms north or south. A simple matter, cusing little hardship!!!!!!!!
But of course its not just a case of warmer / colder but much more complex weather patterns occuring. Adapt now to survive!!
I’m up on Whidbey Island, 70 or so miles north of Seattle. It was hot here for about 3 days (in the high 80s/mid 90s), then it cooled down pretty quickly back to what it was before, mid 70s, now mid 60s. For us only a small part of July was very warm.
Gene Nemetz (07:03:15) :
Bob Tisdale (02:03:41) :
Michael Hauber: “It isn’t CO2, because that only causes about 0.0015 degrees increase each month. Just like the previous short term cooling trend was not Co2, or the failure of Co2 to warm, but something else.”
Really? Care to illustrate where you got that figure of 0.0015 degrees from.
I’d like to see it too! Why didn’t he pick 0.0016, or 0.0014? 😉
To be fair to michael he did say ‘about’
Perhaps he means 0.008 +- 0.007
gtrip (22:21:21) : “Where does the white go when the snow melts?”
Leif Svalgaard (22:50:55) : “A candle works not by providing light, but by sucking up the dark. Proof: the wick gets black.”
It is precisely this black that melts the snow which transfers the white back to the candle. A complete system.
Kum, did you actually read the article on corn in the link you posted? Nice positive spin on a basically iffy report on corn production.
Leif, I didn’t know you spooned!!!!
Well, all I can tell you all is that we have 2 Billion Bushels of corn in elevators, and bins in the U.S., alone. You can buy all you want for a touch over $0.06/lb. This is up about a penny/lb from a couple of years, ago, when ethanol production was less than half of what it is now.
A couple of you dismiss the CO2/Temp connection (as I do) because the “Correlation” isn’t there. Then, you turn around and blather about the corn/ethanol/hunger connection when the “Correlation” Isn’t “There,” Either.
Sometimes I find the lack of “Scientific” thinking on Climate/Weather blogs, Breathtaking.
Pamela Gray-just talking to some clients-who are ranchers here in NEOregon.
Yes they are worried about the wheat crop and rain is on the way.The manufacture of food Vs Fuel is insane.When will we ever learn that there is no magic bullet, and sometimes it’s better to leave well enough alone.
In my opinion, also fall here has arrived,Niño or not…
“Split Atoms, not Birds”
Matt (02:41:43): “x:y:z≡4:5:6 Sorry- couldn’t resist”
Thanks, Matt. Now solve the (apparently difficult) question:
In comparing Hansen 1988’s projections with UAH’s observations, the constants are the calendar and the Celsius scale. Both begin around 1979. Each has a different benchmark, but we can peg the relative comparison to 1979 — Hansen’s OBSERVED temp was approximately 0.3° above his bench mark and the UAH temp was very close to their benchmark. Keeping within Hansen’s study, the rise projected from 1979 by Hansen was 0.5° or 1.1°C (Dave Middleton at 08:09:21 concludes the net anomaly growth to be +0.6 or +0.75). UAH’s observed change from 1979 was 0.41° for the month or about 0.19° (Middleton’s net rise: +0.09) as a 13-month running average.
So we’ve established what the relative rise in average temperature was within each study — Hansen’s modeled rise and UAH’s observed rise. We compare those internal numbers and it appears the low modeled number (Scenario B) of 0.5°- 0.6° is several times greater than the UAH smoothed observation net rise number of 0.09° – 0.19°.
bluegrue (07:51:34) can’t accept this saying the UAH rise from 1979 to 1988 is 0.5°, suggesting this matches “closely” to Hansen’s GISS “0.8.” For starters, 0.8 is not close to 0.5 in my book. But I’m not seeing the present net rise in UAH’s observations as 0.5°. The monthly observation (which bluegrue previously complained about being too narrow a time frame) is only 0.41°, but the smoothed average comes in at less than 0.2°. bluegrue said “. . . this scenario matches most closely the actual history of the forcing . . .” There is huge doubt about the forcing idea and the present CO2 load is more like his scenario A. Hansen’s prediction was way off base any way I look at it.
Matt, since you understand substitution algebra, perhaps you could explain bluegrue’s conclusion better than he can. I don’t get it.
Jimmy Haigh (03:46:18) :
Basty Noy!
I don’t buy the ethanol versus hunger thing myself but I do think that weather patterns are changing back to cooler versions. This could, more than anything else, change the price of food, along with another round of oil price spikes. We didn’t see the dairy price increase coming till it was breathing down our necks. Complacency in food stores is never a good reason to jump in or out of markets.
No, Pamela, NOT “iffy.” The farmers are expecting yields to average 160 bu/acre (the all-time high of 161 was set a few years, ago, when Everything fell in place perfectly.)
Last year, with 50 year floods, yields were 154 bu/acre, and the year before they were 151.
There’s, always, a lot of guessing as to whether farmers planted “more corn,” or “more beans.”
**************
Leif Svalgaard (22:50:55) : “A candle works not by providing light, but by sucking up the dark. Proof: the wick gets black.”
****************
There is a similar principle at work in the field of electronics. If you notice; if a transistor, other component, or in many cases even an entire instrument loses its smoke, a critical and essential element in all electronic devices, they cease to function.
Anthony, how can you attribute this latest, large UAH anomaly to El Nino, when the current El Nino has barely started — and, in fact, the July SOI wasn’t even negative?
*************
Kum Dollison (10:18:20) :
Well, all I can tell you all is that we have 2 Billion Bushels of corn in elevators, and bins in the U.S., alone. You can buy all you want for a touch over $0.06/lb. This is up about a penny/lb from a couple of years, ago, when ethanol production was less than half of what it is now.
A couple of you dismiss the CO2/Temp connection (as I do) because the “Correlation” isn’t there. Then, you turn around and blather about the corn/ethanol/hunger connection when the “Correlation” Isn’t “There,” Either.
Sometimes I find the lack of “Scientific” thinking on Climate/Weather blogs, Breathtaking.
**************************
Just because we aren’t there yet does not mean we won’t get there if we keep it up.
Tom in Florida (15:59:04) :
“Why do so many wait breathlessly each month for these numbers to come out?
Is it so you can jump on the “my side is now winning” wagon? I have watched this go back and forth for a while with each month’s numbers attempting to be used to validate a personal opinion of either it’s getting warmer or it’s getting colder. All this based on an arbitrary base line. Good grief!”
Tom,
I quite enjoy all the commentary on temp/weather/climate observations & opinions as a healthy exercise in sharpening the necessary related skills that can foster insight not otherwise possible, especially if these matters were expressed representing essentially only one (such as an agw) perspective.
These exchanges help contribute to understanding and hopefully to improved responsible adaptive activity by us and our societies that will allow us to ‘weather’ our environments as comfortably as possible.
As the wheat and chaff are separated we all benefit. Please, continue…….
Adam (12:41:08) :
“Plus, its well known that the typical lagged response of temp to ENSO is about 6-7 months, and 6 months ago La Nina conditions were present.”
I made a comparison between ENSO (ONI) and the temp anomalies of GISS, UAH and RSS.
1. ENSO and GISS
Very striking is the almost identical fluctuation pattern of both. Each peak of the temp graph has a peak in the ENSO-graph, with some exceptions.
Example of a maximum: ENSO 1997/11 and 12 (2.5 C°) // GISS temp 1998/02: 79 (.01 C°);
A minimum is seen in ENSO 1973/11 and 12 (-1.9 and -2.0 C°) // GISS temp 1974/02: -26 (.01 C°)
Recently, ENSO showed a descent (minimum 2008/01), a rise ( max 2008/08 to 10) and a descend (minimum 2009/01) before the latest rise. The trend of GISS temperature is nearly identical (descent in 2008/01, the rise culminates in 2008/11, a low temperature peak in 2009/01 followed by a new rise.
Thus, a response time of 2 or 3 months is normal, but a immediate response (zero months) is obviously as much possible.
2. ENSO and RSS
There is a similarity between both graphs, but rather hazy. Since 2008/09, there is an opposite movement: where ENSO rises, RSS descends (global impression). There is a maximum temperature anomaly at 2009/01 of 0.325°C where ENSO has a minimum in that same month.
3. ENSO and UAH
Same conclusion as with RSS. Here the maximum temperature is reached on 2009/02 with a higher 0.347°C.
These are my findings. It proofs again the large differences between GISS and the other centers.
>>>For all the people grousing about the “weather,” with the
>>>exception of the Pacific Northwest and interior Australia,
>>>most of the hot spots this past month were over oceans:
>>> http://www.remss.com/data/msu/graphics/tlt/medium
>>> /global/ch_tlt_2009_07_anom_v03_2.png
If global warming is all man-made, why are all the hot-spots over the uninhabited areas? Is that because there is no-one there to check the data?
.
If July was (according to questionable readings) warmer, August might be way cooler for people around Yosemite: http://yosemiteblog.com/2009/08/05/snow-in-yosemite-in-august-grab-your-camera/
I think Pamela makes very good sense. As an active commodity trader, i can say that her comments are right on. BTW, the number that is most meaningful to me is the USDA stocks/ usage ratio. This number provides a useful estimate of the world wide excess, or buffer, of inventory available. Currently at 17% for corn and 28% for wheat. That is about average for wheat, but very low for corn. BTW, yields for corn have been going up for decades, so that is not news, but is allowed for in the USDA’s yearly estimte. All this info is readily available at cmegroup.com or the USDA.
Kum Dollison
2 Billion Bushels is NOTHING 16% of Yearly Consumption…
Ethanol = 3.6Bb this year with a 500Mb/year growth rate. So by 2012 USA will be converting 5.1Bb /year
Consumption is estimated at nearly 12.5Bb this year. Yields are expected to be 12,405 Bb so you can see what we are moving towards, plus exports were way down in 2009 and are expected to recover in 2010 putting more pressure on yields.
Using 2009 as a guage in the middle of a World Wide recession is bad methodology as a starting point for this debate, you need to look forward ( that is why we trade Corn Futures and not Corn ).
bill (10:04:36) : So you are going to warm/cool your crops with nuclear power. Thats a new one on me!
It was done in the former Soviet Union, in Siberia.
In the time when “Atoms for peace” was promoted it was thought that nuclear power could solve poverty in the whole world, and that is perfectly possible today. The idea was abandoned years after…perhaps because of some malthusian people out there who wanted those poor (BTW now RICH) people dead, that is why they also prohibited DDT, with the altruistic purpose of liberating white people of that nasty brown and black people neighbourhood down there. The trouble now is exactly the contrary: How do we get rid of those nuts up there who are planning to destroy the world we all live in by banning CO2.
Ray (11:43:37) :
If July was (according to questionable readings) warmer, August might be way cooler for people around Yosemite:
Not just there. So far, August has been about five degrees cooler than last year where I live (the last six days) and the next ten look to be around six degrees cooler on average as well.
bill (09:16:42) :
To all who keeps saying that if the temperature rises (or presumably falls) we’ll just adapt therefore GW does not matter.
Well if you say crops are failing because of the cold and disaster is upon us then why not simply adapt?
or is it perhaps a little more tricky than you thought?
For $200-300 billion, the US could build a canal siphoning Mississippi River water following topographic lines from north of the Quad cites, through Iowa-Neb-S.Dak-Wyo-Co to irrigate over 40 million acres in New Mex and TX. Some water could be sold to Denver, allowing them to release more Co. River water for irrigation in Az. and Ca (+5 million acres). Some could be left in the So Platte, North Platte, Arkansas and tributaries for another 10 million + acres under irrigation. Add another $100 billion for the nuclear energy to pump it up in a couple of stages or $200 billion for a few recreation damns along the way. Presto, you’ve increased arable land (and irrigated at that) 25% in the good ol US of A. It’s been proposed, and I’ve seen the proposal, along with others. Put about 250,000 unemployed to work. The proposal is fighting foolish Greenies all the way down the Mississippi to the Shrimpers in the La. gulf. Regardless, adaptation is a darn site cheaper than Cap’N’Charade.
bill (10:04:36) :
Nogw (09:49:11) : …but it depends if you have enough and dependable energy or not
So you are going to warm/cool your crops with nuclear power. Thats a new one on me!
Any adaptation will require money and energy. Regardless, adaptation is a darn site cheaper than Cap’N’Charade.
I thought people here were suggesting that warm/cool tolerant crops are grown or moving farms north or south. A simple matter, cusing [sic] little hardship!!!!!!!!
Pamela may have to plant hard red spring wheat, grow canola or pasture. Regardless, adaptation is a darn site cheaper than Cap’N’Charade.
Pamela, It’s good that soybeans are a cool weather crop — that may be important in the future. BTW, I’ve heard of a promising new soybean based product called Soylent Green.
Jeff Alberts (09:47:04) : said
“…..My take is that the concept of a “global average or mean temperature” is a meaningless concept. If some places cool, some remain relatively static, and some warm, then there is clearly nothing “global” occurring, just lots of little regional things which aren’t connected.”
I agree. I think the concept of a single global temperature is bizarre. The world comprises millions of micro climates (not micro weathers) where at any one time some are getting cooler some warmer and some staying the same- as can be seen by the numerous hot and cold records set this year.
Do these global temperatures get split? For example it would be interesting to see the north/south and east/west anomaly from both hemispheres (ie four readings) which might enable us to identify more closely where the warming is coming from.
Perhaps rather more useful than a global temperature might be a global sunshine index which might be able to tell us whether more cloudiness over a measurable period raises, lowers, or keeps temperatures the same. Is there such a thing?
Tonyb
Leif Svalgaard (04:46:42) :
Richard (23:14:05) :
I downloaded the SORCE data for TSI. From 1st of July to 29th July the Earth received 38,212.13 W/m^2 of irradiance and for the previous 29 days it was 40,899.10 W/m^2. We received 2,686.97 W/m^2 less and yet the temperature shot up.
“For the previous 29 days we received 38,252.21 W/m2, not 40,899.10”
Rechecked Leif – you are right by jove! I took an extra two days back. So now that makes more sense.
We’re, steadily, taking farmland OUT of production. We used to rowcrop 400 Million Acres. Now, it’s more like 240 Million Acres. Farmers decide “What,” and “How Much” to plant depending on “projected” price, price of fertilizer, Prices of “alternative” crops, Gov. Programs, etc.
We, currently, pay farmers Not to Farm 34 Million Acres. A Lot of that is, reasonably, productive land. Only about 4% of ethanol is made from “irrigated” corn.
Russia has 100 Million Acres of Very Good Black Land that’s not being farmed. India is the No 1 Wheat Producer. China is the No 2 Corn Producer (and, they, basically, plant, and harvet By Hand.
The only reason Africa doesn’t grow an enormous amount of corn, and soybeans is that due to our efficiency the price is still a bit too low. Plus, they don’t have the Capital to get in the Game. Governance is, of course, a Big Problem, there.
Almost half of the soil on Earth has been off-limits to agriculture due to soil acidity, and aluminum toxicity. New seeds are quickly bringing this to an end.
Folks, we’ve got a lot of problems, but ability to grow food isn’t one of them.
Check out this article from David Appell in Scientific (?) American. http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=behind-the-hockey-stick
Hate to appear a dodo, but what, pray tell, is a “minge”?
David Appell, how can YOU attribute warming to Co2 when the Co2 is increasing, yet the global temperatures have , at the very least, leveled off? I wish I could tell you what the driver(s) of climate are, but it sure isn’t Co2. I think you are just riding Anthony’s coattails to gain some recognition for yourself. BTW, how are the ratings going for SA lately? Can you explain the drop in readership? Perhaps it is due to advocacy? Perhaps Mr. Mann can work on the ratings graph for you. That should help.
bill (10:04:36) : “So you are going to warm/cool your crops with nuclear power. Thats a new one on me!”
Nuclear-powered greenhouses?
Interesting analysis on how satellite data is ‘smoothed’.
http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/9852
Tonyb
Tim, in general hard wheat is more resistant to stress of any kind. Spring hard varieties are not as frost hardy as winter varieties. While soft varieties produce a softer flour, hard wheat has more protein, makes a good stout bread, and is just better for you. If it is weather I am worried about, hard winter red is the best choice. Most of the wheat still in the fields right now is probably spring wheat. Winter wheat sprouts earlier, withstands frost, and can be harvested earlier because it sprouts earlier. You just don’t get the premium price. I think some of the younger farmers have been under the impression that summers would be long and warm. Wonder where they got that idea from.
I noticed that Pendleton farmers planted wheat instead of corn but only some of it was harvested before the rains came. They planted lots of peas. No one that I know of planted any watermelon, cantelope, or pumpkins in a field bigger than a large garden. Remember when Hermiston Watermelons were all the rage? You would be hard pressed to find a field of them this year.
Of interest to some, Universities that have agricultural departments void of “coolaid” drinking fountains have been working on developing cold-tolerant short season cash crops. Now who told them Earth was going to cool?
Jeff Alberts (09:47:04)
“…..My take is that the concept of a “global average or mean temperature” is a meaningless concept. If some places cool, some remain relatively static, and some warm, then there is clearly nothing “global” occurring, just lots of little regional things which aren’t connected.”
Totally agree, temperature is a local phenomenon and says little about what’s going on in any particular micro-clmate. Heat content change would be a more meaningful measure, but much more diffcult to obtain.
Surprized that July shows so much heating in the Antarctic, perhaps the quiet sun has damped down the upper atmosphere heat transport at this pole, allowing the temperature to rise?
I would love to be able to grow something on land that is in CRP (government program designed to control prices). But I can’t charge what it costs to produce and make a reasonable profit. If we didn’t have price controls on food basics, the price I charge for my produce would go up and down depending on the price of oil, implements, etc for the year I use these items (like it does with many other products). I wish price controls and subsidies would go away. But many decades ago, the government thought the people would be happier with stable food prices. So I am stuck with the hand I am dealt. Any farmer these days would be asking for bankruptcy to take land out of conservation programs and grow something on it. He/she would not be allowed to break even and the farmer’s land would be up for sale tomorrow.
HOWEVER, there is a silver lining to every cloudy, rainy day. I have lots and lots of non-irrigated pasture and grazing land and have it rented out to about 100 + units (cow/calf) spread around to the various areas. This rain is just what I needed to keep things rented till the middle/end of November when heavy frosts and snow forces the cattle down to the valley to feedlots for the winter. This is good for the cattle owner and good for me.
David Appell, this may not be communicated clearly, but El Nino and La Nina conditions and events, and any other oceanic alphabet index we follow aren’t based on a series of on/off switches. Neutral positions are just as much of a weather pattern driver as the extremes. All levels of oceanic conditions, from warm to cool and in-between, drive weather pattern variations over land. The global temperature is sourced from the oceans, plain and simple. The storm we are having in the western half of the US came to us courtesy of the Pacific Ocean. Gee thanks.
L (14:11:40) :
Hate to appear a dodo, but what, pray tell, is a “minge”?
google it…
Jim (09:29:29) :
***************
Phil. (07:03:47) :
Roy Spencer (16:48:33) :
Large month-to-month changes in tropospheric temperature are likely to be dominated by non-radiative transfers of heat, that is, changes in the rate at which convection transfers heat from the surface to the atmosphere.
Surface to atmosphere transfer will still be dominated by long wave radiation, distribution within the troposphere will be dominated by convection.
***********************
Hey Phil. What % heat is transferred via radiation vs. convection – IYO.
From the surface on average ~80% by radiation
From the TOA to space 100% by radiation
Leif Svalgaard (16:07:56) :
L (14:11:40) :
Hate to appear a dodo, but what, pray tell, is a “minge”?
google it…
If it helps a hairy one is a tautology!
Pamela Gray (15:28:18) :
Of interest to some, Universities that have agricultural departments void of “coolaid” drinking fountains have been working on developing cold-tolerant short season cash crops. Now who told them Earth was going to cool?
No one, they were told it was going to get warmer so that you could plant certain crops further north, trouble is although it might be warmer in the summer the day length variation means that the growing season will be shorter hence the short season requirement.
Dont make a big deal about something that aint.This is NOT significant by my standards especially in a eL nIN O AND I BET THE FARM THAT TEMPS WILL DROP BACK DESPITE THE EL NINO NOW SWHUT 8UP ABOUT “GLOBAL TREMPS UP SIGNIFICANTELY IN JULY” NOTHING COMPARED TO JUST A FEW YEARS AGL RETARD
Dont make a big deal about something that aint.This is NOT significant by my standards especially in a eL nIN O AND I BET THE FARM THAT TEMPS WILL DROP BACK DESPITE THE EL NINO NOW SHUT UP ABOUT “GLOBAL TEMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY IN JULY” NOTHING COMPARED TO JUST A FEW YEARS AGO RETARDS
AND THIS IS ONLY RAW DATA ALSO
***********
Phil. (16:24:23) :
Hey Phil. What % heat is transferred via radiation vs. convection – IYO.
From the surface on average ~80% by radiation
From the TOA to space 100% by radiation
***************
What % of total incoming energy is reflected back into space from clouds over the course of a typical year – lets say just for specificity an average of the last 30 years. Or if you have knowledge of some other time frame, go with that.
The July UAH increase was the biggest monthly change in the entire UAH record (in terms of the increase and in absolute terms).
The next closest global monthly change was 0.293C so this last month at +0.410C has to be considered very unusual.
The southern hemisphere change at +0.634C is nearly double the previous record (I have the southern hemisphere records going back to 1850 and the southern hemisphere over the longer record is known for having very wild swings and is very unlike the more normal temp record for the northern hemisphere).
The change in the Tropics in July 2009 at +0.430C is the second largest ever and the biggest one was (maybe expected), July 1997 – just as the Super El Nino was really taking off – +1.85C anomaly in Nino 3.4 in 1997 versus +0.88C this year. The July 1997 temp increase still followed the normal 3 month lag that the ENSO produces so after July 1997, temps still skyrocketed higher and did not peak until Feb, 1998 – 3 months after the peak of the El Nino. [I don’t see this El Nino continuing to increase for another 6 months to the records of the 1997-98 El Nino].
So overall, something really strange happened in July and it is tied into the record warm (not -65C any longer) temps that Antarctica is experiencing.
L (14:11:40) :
Hate to appear a dodo, but what, pray tell, is a “minge”?
It is a biting fly pertaining to the family Ceratopogonidae. The most common in your area is Culicoides impunctatus… Anyway, don’t call your daughter “Minge” because other bad meanings are in use.
Phil. (16:42:06) :
Leif Svalgaard (16:07:56) :
L (14:11:40) :
Hate to appear a dodo, but what, pray tell, is a “minge”?
google it…
If it helps a hairy one is a tautology!
And do not – repeat – DO NOT!!! – go into a bar and ask any lady how her’s is.
(I saw a guy do that in Glasgow once…)
Phil (16:53:09) No one, they were told it was going to get warmer so that you could plant certain crops further north, trouble is although it might be warmer in the summer the day length variation means that the growing season will be shorter hence the short season requirement. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Take your thermageddon colored glasses off. Intelligent people prepare for BOTH warming AND cooling, as the planet can do EITHER.
Moderators. Mary has a friend – Betty. Betty Swollocks. She may drop in for a conversation.
An English horse trainer had a couple of horses a few years ago – guess what their names were?
It is a biting fly pertaining to the family Ceratopogonidae. The most common in your area is Culicoides impunctatus… Anyway, don’t call your daughter “Minge” because other bad meanings are in use.
Is it true this fly is unheard of in Brazil ?
Jimmy Haigh (19:31:31) :
Moderators. Mary has a friend – Betty. Betty Swollocks. She may drop in for a conversation.
Actually, Mary and Betty were Rindercella’s sisters.
Paul R (19:40:26) :
Is it true this fly is unheard of in Brazil ?
Now THAT is funny!!!!!!!!!!!
I haven’t been to Brazil but a friend of mine says that “this fly” is almost unheard of. I did spend some time in Venezuela – “this fly” is not too common there and often very thin.
Gary Hladik (14:40:53) :
bill (10:04:36) : “So you are going to warm/cool your crops with nuclear power. Thats a new one on me!”
“”Nuclear-powered greenhouses?””
Or… how about man-made fibres, or plastics, or a myriad of other oil based products, from wind or solar power?
Do you mean midge or minge? A midge is a great fishing fly and it would be well worth your time to try and tie one.
Okay, I just googled minge. Disregard the fishing comment above.
Paul R (19:40:26) :
“It is a biting fly pertaining to the family Ceratopogonidae. The most common in your area is Culicoides impunctatus… Anyway, don’t call your daughter “Minge” because other bad meanings are in use.”
Is it true this fly is unheard of in Brazil?
I don’t know. Culicoides brevitarsis K. is a cosmopolitan species. Hence I could deduce that the species inhabits Brazil.
How come they never have fun over at Joe’s place?
Hi here in Christchurch N ew Zealand Jule air temps were much colder than norm.The day air temp was -1.71c of a.v.g the night time a.v.g was -1.19c on a.v.g. And it was a very sunny month and very dry.hey those places that are getting the hot temps has their been less wind than normal their?.
Phoenix, AZ…With all things being equal, why are our temperature 6 degrees less tonight than they were last night at the same time??? I was very surprised by the lack of UHI going on…minimal radiation from the asphalt tonight. When do we finally get to have science start working again?
A blog writer writing in Spanish has said that the heatwave in Spain and Mediterranean countries is the exact opposite of what the IPCC predicted.
When I did environmental studies in the 1980s, when the theory was that the world was going into a new Ice Age because of extreme climate around the world, the tutors said that blocking anticyclones would happen when the climate cooled. It seems to me that that is what is happening now, with the droughts in China, Argentina that are affecting crops.
The other thing that is happening is that there have been outbreaks of plague in various parts of the world as shown at the Healthmap website. The bacteria that causes bubonic, pneumonic and septicemic plague requires low temperatures in order to cause the plague. There have been recent very low temperatures in Tibet.
It sure was not warmer in freezing London in July, nor in freezing eastern North America.
It will be interesting to see if anything different is really happening here.
At first inspection, the global average LT temperature is just bouncing around, as usual. The range if the variation is about 1 degree C, and within this we can possibly see a step-warming of 0.2C after year ~2000. Neither the bounce nor the step-increase can be attributed to increased humanmade CO2, with any confidence.
“3 day life span….for the Painted Lady….are you sure about that? Lets go through it shall we: Female imago lays egg: egg takes (depending on weather) approx 2-4 days to hatch; larvae hatch and start eating immediately. time taken to reach pupa stage 4-6 weeks (depending on weather). Pupal stage, usually in this stage for 7-14 days, finally the adult emerges.
From egg to adult there is a minimum of 36 days in southern areas. This would be nearer two months in cooler areas ( these times are for spring/summer broods and not overwintering).
If there wasn’t the hot and dry weather in Spain/Southern France there would not be the number of butterflies arriving, they don’t migrate for fun. There are usually a good number that reach our shores each summer but this year was extraordinary in numbers and butterfly behaviour. I first noted these butterflies arriving on the 1st June (by the way I don’t live in the UK, but your welcome to come here and tell a few locals here that they do…would be interesting!) The behaviour was very unusual, they had a very strong flight and very quick,( I drove after them to get an idea of speed, they were flying at around 10mph). The next generation of Painted Ladies have recently emerged and have the usual ‘flitting’ behaviour.
The facts of this particular migration are clear, there was a large number initially from the Atlas Mountains. Early spring is a good time for the foodplants to grow in Southern Europe so there would be plenty of food for them (as well as the hymenopteran parasites..but that’s a different though not unconnected story). The late spring and summer have been particularly dry and hot this summer resulting in a loss of food plants. This coupled with the large initial population resulted in particularly large numbers of butterflies to the British Isles and Ireland.
It is all connected, you can put as much saltpetre and carbon together but without the sulphur you get no bang!
I suspect that GISS and HadCrut will come in at 0.715 and 0.646 respectively.
Mary Hinge writes:
“The facts of this particular migration are clear, there was a large number initially from the Atlas Mountains.”
Wasn’t the initial cause of the breeding success of the Painted Lady butterflies due to wetter weather than usual in Morocco?
The Atlas Mountains are in Morocco.
M. ‘inge is the British equivalent to the American Mike Hunt, and (sorry) I find Kum Dollison amusing, too. Should these be the real names of those people, I will readily admit that I am the one who is a bit repressed. Having said that: Skiing-racer Joos Minsch once had a great fall on the Lauberhorn, just below the Hundschopf, so that place is now called the Minsch-edge. And (funny to Japanese) the Swiss also have a DJ Bobo (same thing).
I thought clouds were a positive feedback (LOL)…if so, why would they propose this? *snicker* Dr. Roy suggests (rightfully and logically as far as I can tell) that clouds are a negative feedback, cooling the atmosphere. I guess the AGW proponents are having a hard time keeping their story straight….
‘Cloud ship’ scheme to deflect the sun’s rays is favourite to cut global warming
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/globalwarming/5987229/Cloud-ship-scheme-to-deflect-the-suns-rays-is-favourite-to-cut-global-warming.html
lol *sorry* I couldn’t resist
Betty
Stop with the pig latin already. It’s giving me a headache.
“Runny Babbit A Billy Sook” by Shel Silverstein.
A very funny book to read out loud on a Sunday morning in bed with hot coffee laced with generous amounts O’Irish Cream. The more coffee you drink, and the more you read the verse, the funnier it gets.
Pamela Gray (09:21:42) :
“Runny Babbit A Billy Sook” by Shel Silverstein.
Thanks for this Pamela – I’ll have to get a copy. (I seem to have started this nonsense here – thanks to Mary!)
From Wikipedia: “Other than speaking only in spoonerisms, Runny is a normal child. He has many friends, and two loving parents, his “dummy and mad,” who often remind him to “shake a tower” and other chores.”
Phil. (16:53:09) : …although it might be warmer in the summer the day length variation means that the growing season will be shorter hence the short season requirement. The day length variation is towards longer days in the summer as one goes north, and more growing time even though the ‘season’ is shorter.
Whatever happened to all the alarmist predictions of global cooling after two years of relatively low solar activity?
WHAT’s up with this? Can anybody still get the monthly temp anomaly? I’m hunting around for July and it looks unavailable until further notice (maybe their spin art machine is broken):
U.S. Climate Monitoring Weekly Products
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center
• Map Selection Menu
• Background
• Differences between these data and official monthly averages
• Weekly Mean Temperature Data
(unavailable until further notice)
• Month-To-Date Temperature Anomaly Data
(unavailable until further notice)
• Contacts
Please help, T.
Dennis, the same people on this blog usually post the “sky is falling” thought many times about a quiet Sun and global cooling. There is no consensus about the correlation or lack thereof of the Solar/Earth temperature connections among the general participants (frequent flyers or just once or twice a month visitors). That said, I understand your comment.
Mary,
This topic is interesting and I was forced to look up information as I was running off my Biology lessons – the lifespan I used was based on full caterpillars to end of life, we raised them as an experiment and they arrived as caterpillars,so I stand corrected on the following..
Life Cycle is 3(egg) + (14/21)(larval) + 6(pupa)+ 14(adult) = 37/44 Days as you point out BUT even with that correction it does not invalidate my point. It does not even change Generation Count.
Let me re-explain to you the issue…
1) Warmer weather does DECREASE life span (mature quicker)
2) The Butterflies arrive all season because of staggered generations.
3) Based on Timing (May 27th and June 1st are not that far apart) so Counting First Flight on Feb 14th as Generation 1 and moving through time (108 Days), they would be on Generation 4 to arrive with enough time to lay eggs.
4) The butterflies are not outside of their native range nor are they outside of their arrival window, they are just in greater numbers based on POPULATION at the start of the migration.
5) If temperature was pushing them North as you claim then just based on Generations and Time they would have died off to normal levels or arrived earlier, and if temperatures were up they would have required more generations and hence more food because warmer weather reduces lifespan putting even more downward pressure on total population.
6) Migrations are not just based on food supply, habitat ranges are, and there is not any indication of Northward habitat relocation or changes in Migration Pattern.
I am not sure what you were trying to say about living in the UK and what residents there would say about what, so I will not address it.
Then Finally I did not see any prolonged temperature anomaly along the route that would contribute to migratory pressures this season, if you have that data I would be interested in it.
Or over Melbourne Australia.
Climate Heretic (14:40:14) :
Always interesting raising your own lepidopterans, nature at her glorious best!
I take on board what you are saying and I hope I can show you that the weather is the driver for these mass migrations. I will do this explanation in two posts as there are 4 links and I don’t want to fall victim to the spam filter.
The first part is the cooler weather and higher rainfall over North Africa and Southern Europe at the begining of the year. The following links show temperature and precipitation anomolies from December to February. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2009/feb/map-land-sfc-mntp-200812-200902-pg.gif
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2009/feb/map-prcp-200812-200902-pg.gif.
The extra rainfall produces an increase in the available foodplants and the initial population explosion reported. Next post:-
Second post-
Now we move to later in the year, following are the temperature anomolies and precipitation anomolies from March May inc. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2009/may/map-land-sfc-mntp-200903-200905-pg.gif
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2009/may/map-prcp-200903-200905-pg.gif
These show clearly the higher temperatures and lower precipitation in Western Europe.
As I stated in an earlier post there are always more than one reason for migration events such as this years and it is only when they all come together that events occur.
As I noted above, the behavioural change in these butterflies is quite remarkable. They fly in a much more purposeful manner stopping only briefly to drink nectar for a few seconds before flying on. I assume the North American Painted Ladies have the same behaviour when conditions force them to migrate en masse. During this phase they can fly over 1,000 miles, before they start laying eggs. The subsequent generation has the gentle flying behaviour we all know and love!
The three highest monthly temperature spikes in the whole of the UAH data series are 0.293, 0.292, 0.286, the three lowest dips are -0.277, -0.281, -0.281, and now we get a spike of 0.407… seems anomalous to me … unprecedented in the whole of the UAH data series
This enormous jump between last June and July seems to be ‘unprecedented’ in the UAH MSU record. However, the daily Ch5 anomaly is dropping at the moment, it is almost certain that August will be significantly colder.
See: http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+002
ChLT and Ch6 (900 and 400Mb levels) are also going down.
Concerning UAH’s intention to change its daily data base from to Aqua AMSU in the next few weeks, I understand the motivation to do that, but I am curious on how they will maintain a consistent data base at http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/. That website currently presents raw data from a drifting satellite that subsequently reads high. When UAH changes to Aqua AMSU, current daily data will be quite accurate, but will the historical data on the website continue to be the biased-high NOAA-15 data?
If you site hasn’t developed a problem, my computer just decided to go crazy.