Comments on: Some speculation that solar cycle 25 has already begun

By: poslednieje

poslednieje — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 15:10:57 +0000

Looking to the data (Janssen) smoothed sunpotless days versus months beginning of cycle I have the impression that the weaker the cycle the steeper the slope at the inflection point. Concluding from this cycle 24 can go up to 1100 spotless days

By: Vangel

Vangel — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 00:02:46 +0000

“So far, this is only a speculation based on very little data and a model of the ‘jets’. It is fun to see how some people will go off on a tangent on this and deduce all kind of weird things, and ‘what did I tell you’-stuff.”

It seems to me that many of the so-called ‘experts’ seem to be exposing themselves as empty suits as it becomes obvious that they know far less than they think that they do. NASA scientists have been calling for the beginning of a new cycle for more than a year and a half now (if my memory is accurate) but we have still to see their predictions validated by reality. Would it hurt if you guys admitted that you did not know all that much and need to learn a lot more?

By: Leif Svalgaard

Leif Svalgaard — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 17:50:20 +0000

Lee (10:07:46) :
Is that too simplistic?
The images show the corona, and if nothing happens your forecast may be correct, but a new active region can pop up any time…

By: Lee

Lee — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 17:07:46 +0000

Hi Leif, thanks for the informative answers. As I look at the STEREO behind picture, I have noticed that for a week or so the chromosphere (at any rate the glowing region arround the sun) is much closer to the sun on the trailing side and bulges out over active regions. That suggests to me that very calm conditions are coming centered perhaps a week to 10 days from now. Is that too simplistic?

By: Leif Svalgaard

Leif Svalgaard — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 15:39:38 +0000

Lee (07:03:08) :
Is that 3 over the minimum base which we are actually fairly near?
It is 3 over the current background which is near 68. I don’t think we’ll go down to 65 as there are already new small ‘ephemeral regions’ from SC24.

By: Lee

Lee — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 14:03:08 +0000

Is that 3 over the minimum base which we are actually fairly near? Or would the base for that area where the spot is be something like 2.8 so it is not significant?

Once the spot disappears in a few days, do we lose all 3 flux units or some thing else like maybe .2 flux units? If it were to drop to 65 that would seem to be at least thought-provoking if cycle 24 is in upswing.

By: Leif Svalgaard

Leif Svalgaard — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 11:19:27 +0000

Lee (00:01:59) :
Leif, someone like me, an amateur at his sort of thing, would surmise that most of the 10.7 energy is being generated by that large former sunspot about to disappear in a couple of days.
That area only accounts for about 3 flux units [out of 70].

By: Lee

Lee — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 07:01:59 +0000

Leif, someone like me, an amateur at his sort of thing, would surmise that most of the 10.7 energy is being generated by that large former sunspot about to disappear in a couple of days. And there seems to be nothing at all coming around from the back to replace it. So to me it seems logical to expect even lower, and consistently lower measurements for the next week or so at least. And this big disturbance should be even weaker when it comes back around in about 17 days.

This looks sort of like last August to me, what would a spotless August at this late date mean? particularly if accompanied by very low T10.7?

By: Leif Svalgaard

Leif Svalgaard — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 03:31:50 +0000

Leif Svalgaard (18:31:38) :
At 67.8 [at noon] it’s low alright. At 2300UT it was 68.5, so perhaps just a small flutter. The accuracy of the measurement is really not quite as good as to one decimal place, perhaps more +/-0.5. Let’s see tomorrow.
It went up slightly at noon to 68.1, and 68.4 at 2300UT.

By: rbateman

rbateman — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 05:13:54 +0000

I’d give the vacationing Sun another half rotation or so.
Nothing has been moving faster than a snail’s pace the last 2.75 years. Why ruin it?

“Hi, you’ve reached the office of Sol Activity. I’m not in right now, but if you leave your name & number, I’ll get back to you in a rotation or two.”

By: Leif Svalgaard

Leif Svalgaard — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 01:31:38 +0000

Lee (17:56:00) :
Has the 10.7 flux fallen off a cliff? The stereo behind image shows what looks to be an exremely quit disk for at least the next week or so. Could this be the 2nd or 3rd local minimum in this extended minimum?
At 67.8 [at noon] it’s low alright. At 2300UT it was 68.5, so perhaps just a small flutter. The accuracy of the measurement is really not quite as good as to one decimal place, perhaps more +/-0.5. Let’s see tomorrow.

By: Lee

Lee — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 00:56:00 +0000

Has the 10.7 flux fallen off a cliff? The stereo behind image shows what looks to be an exremely quit disk for at least the next week or so. Could this be the 2nd or 3rd local minimum in this extended minimum?

By: Leif Svalgaard

Leif Svalgaard — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 21:50:00 +0000

TJA (14:37:00) :
“It is fun to see how some people will go off on a tangent on this and deduce all kind of weird things,” – Leif Svalgaard
I think you meant “infer”, not “deduce”. ;·)

I might ‘infer’, but they seemingly mean ‘deduce’ as they have little or no doubt.

By: TJA

TJA — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 21:37:00 +0000

“It is fun to see how some people will go off on a tangent on this and deduce all kind of weird things,” – Leif Svalgaard

I think you meant “infer”, not “deduce”. ;·)

By: Leif Svalgaard

Leif Svalgaard — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 17:37:03 +0000

Mr. Alex (08:08:15) :
Interesting that you linked that L&P paper which although seemingly convincing has been met with quite a bit of skepticism due to the fact that it uses a short period of data and some have called it a mere statistical analysis. The paper has not yet been updated to 2009 to my knowledge… Any ideas as to when L&P will do so?
I’m in contact with L&P and get their data in real-time. The data has been updated through the latest spots observed and the trend is holding up; here is the latest data: http://www.leif.org/research/Livingston%20and%20Penn.png