The WHO and ECDC data only count LABORATORY CONFIRMED A/H1N1 ( it is not just A1, it`s H1N1( type 1 Hemaglutinin + type 1 Neuranimidase). These are the only believable data. What is just a statistical guess is that there are more than 100 000 cases in Argentina. The WHO/ECDC data show 197 deaths out of 3056 cases, or a jaw-dropping mortality of 6,4%.

6,4% mortality (1 death every 16 cases) is , if the data are representative, an enormous rate.

Common flu has a mortality of just 0,01% (or 1 out of 2000), mainly among infants or old aged people.

As I said before, the more endangered people by swine influenza are instead YOUNG ADULTS, because they have strong immune systems that can then trigger the suicidal cytokine reaction.

What might happen in your city ( please tell me the name of the city) is probably the same that is happening where I live, Lima ,the peruvian capital: the people that got sick receive at right time the tamiflu drug, and that prevent the cytokine reaction but cannot save the already-ill people from the more common complication of all influenzas: secondary bacterial pneumonia, that must be instead treated with antibiotics.

Oseltamivir (tamiflu) block the neuranimidase protein if the virus, stopping its spread from one cell to the other. The common HUMAN (not swine) A/H1N1 and the avian A/H5N1 are resistant to this drug, but thank God that the SWINE A/H1N1 is still sensible to the drug ( it might become resistant as it evolves or reassort with human seasonal A/H1N1 influenza).

When that resistance will appear, you must get another neuranimidase inibitor called Zanamivir (Relenza), that don`t come in tablets but instead come as an aerosol that you must breath (like the drugs for asthma).

[No religious pronouncements, please. ~ Evan]

In my province common flue (or “gripe”) has a mortality rate ranging from 2 to 5% according to the years, about the same as the national average. In our 19th week of the year there were already about 300,000 flu cases in Argentina, the vast majority corresponding to common flue, and an “estimated” 100,000 cases of A1H1N1 or “porcine” influenza. Estimates are just that: a guess, and not even an educated or informed guess.

The A1 flu (after a detailed lab analysis) accounts in my province for about 3000 cases in a population of 2.4 million, and only 6 deaths, but on people already having lung problems and inmune system depression (a seven month premature baby, a transplanted patient, etc).

However, our national health officials are lumping together all deaths either from A/H1N1 flu or from common flu as being caused by the A/H1N1 flu. Those flawed statistics are sent to the WHO who has no way of knowing if they are good or not and contribute to the general misinformation that comes from all over the world.

And Tamiflu, the drug designed to cure the “avian” flu (the one that killed less than 60 people in the world in 8 years!) didn’t work with the flu, as it does not work with the porcine flu. What must be investigated is if the vaccine has not killed more patients than it supposedly saved, as it happened with the avian flu.

But my numbers on the flu pandemic were the ones of World Health Organization and also the ECDC ones .Those are updated every day, and wikipedia did updates every day with WHO and ECDC data (now that WHO has stopped the count, wikipedia only put the ECDC data ).

The NUMBERS say that WORLDWIDE the mortality is near 0,5% ( five times the mortality of common influenza) but in Argentina is over 5% ( ten times the wordwide mortality and five times the Mexico one). Remeber that the 1918-1919 pandemic killed between 50 and 100 MILLION worldwide with a mortality smaller than the current Argentinian one.

THIS IS NOT COMMON FLU. The critical data are:

Genetic makeup: mixture of swine , human and avian influenza viruses(“triple reassortant”)

Age groups more hit: ADOLESCENTS AND YOUNG ADULTS (more than 60% of the cases).

Killer mechanism: the virus itself doesn`t kill. What kill you is an overreaction of the immune system, called a cytokine storm. Your immmune system sends million of white cells to the infected lungs, but instead of destroying the virus, this trigger and inflammatory response that destroy the lung tissue, and your lungs get filled with fluids plenty of dead cells ( here in Peru, we call it “pus”). The nightmare reality is that THE STRONGER THE IMMUNE SYSTEM IS, THE WORSE THE LUNG INFLAMMATION. This explain why most victims are YOUNG adults, not weaken old aged or infants .

If you don`t want that your own defenses kill you in an auto-immunitary attack, YOU MUST TAKE THE ANTIVIRAL DRUGS AT THE FIRST SYMPTOMS. Most of the young healthy adult victims died because they don`t take the drugs at time, the virus multiplicated in the lungs and so their immune system got crazy.

The authorities that say that the victims were all already weakened people are not telling you the truth. This is only 30% of the cases.

I read about this killer mechanism in an article about the outbreaks in Mexico. The early may WHO reports( WHO do not did a statistical analysis of the June cases and in July stopped counting) also showed the odd age distribution off illness and mortality.

Remember: BEWARE A/H1N1 2009 swine influenza and save your life!

Statement as of 6:25 am EDT on July 23, 2009

… Unusually cool July for Central Park…

For some perspective… here are the top ten coolest julys on record
since 1869 for Central Park in New York city:

coolest
avg. Temp. Year
70.7 1888
71.9 1884
72.1 1914
72.3 2000/1871
72.4 1891
72.6 1895
72.8 1902/1869
72.9 1956
73.1 1890
73.2 2001

Due to the unusually cool conditions thus far in July… here are
some interesting facts to note…

With an average daily temperature of 71.7… currently running 4.6
degrees below normal… this July is on track for the 2nd coolest
on record. Below average temperatures have occurred on 20 out of
22 days… with the other two days being normal. There have been
zero above normal days.

Central Park has only reached 85 degrees once this month… on the
17th… and has not yet reached 90 degrees this Summer. If this
continues through the end of the month… it will only be the
second time since 1869 that 90 degrees was not reached in June or
July. The only other time this occurred was 1996.

My apologies, Anthony, you don’t have to take down the blog post. Or you can save this one for 2011. ;)

So, snowing in Buenos Aires for the second time in 91 years. That cancels out those two recent 14+ day heat waves in Melbourne (which is supposed to happen to happen about once every 1,200,000 years). It’s good to know everything is normal.

A new “Watts Up Effect?”

You run the best Science Blog for 2008, Anthony. You cannot do this and then not remove it. You really can’t. It’s not proper, it’s not ethical, it’s going too far and I don’t care what the AGW propaganda machine does.

REPLY: I knew while I was writing it that is was from 2007, but it initially got posted before I finished it because I was setting up several blog posts for scheduled release while I was traveling. This was the last one, and I botched the setup for scheduling, but planned to finish it while waiting in the airport which has free wifi. While I was showering and packing I discovered that instead of being scheduled it was live, and I had limited time to work on it then. Sure I could have taken it down, but people had already commented on it. At that point whether I removed it or left it up I’d be damned if I did, damned if I didn’t. For those that can’t seem to read the NOTE at the top, there’s nothing I can do to help you. Besides there’s nothing wrong with reviewing something interesting from a couple of years ago. I covered it then too. Since there’s always some people complaining about virtually every post I make here, this one is no different. I just did a flashback to the moon landings in 1969, which also occurred this month, but 40 years ago, should I remove that too lest some fool that wasn’t alive then think it is from this year?

People that make expectations of me should walk a mile in my shoes and read some of the abuse I get just for putting up regular stories. As for your complaint, I really can’t help you. Its up and it will stay up. – Anthony

There is snow on the hills:

http://www.aipchile.cl/camara/detail.php?cameraID=116

http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=rss&article=8

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/K8A0/2009/7/20/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

Last night it was a full four degrees below the record.

I thought 2007 was hot. Beyond imagination? Surely Algore also is aggitated. His home stat is coolest evah last month and we know his carbon footprint is massive.

Who claims their
“models” predicted the snow and cold?

COLD AND SNOW IN SOUTH AMERICA
By Eugenio Hackbart, METSUL
One of the coldest air eruptions this decade is expected in the next few days in Argentina, Uruguay and part of Southern Brazil. First, a major extra tropical cyclone will develop near Rio de la Plata region this Tuesday and early Wednesday. Forecast models suggest an explosive cyclogenesis and the risk of torrential rain and damaging winds in the Buenos Aires province and Uruguay. Coastal areas could face hurricane force wind gusts. The 985 hPa cyclone will quickly eject to lower latitudes in the South Atlantic, deepening even more to a 960 hPa low, favoring a very cold air incursion in the continent.
The associated front will race trough Uruguay, Northern Argentina and Southern Brazil with possible severe weather (high winds, hails and even isolated tornadoes). A pre- frontal low level jet will transport warm air ahead of the front and could bring gusts of warm and dry wind from the North that could exceed 100 km/h in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, this Tuesday and early Wednesday. The polar air will cover much of Argentina, Uruguay and Southern Brazil on the second half of the week with freezing temperature, frost and even snow.
Snow could fall and even accumulate in parts of the province of Buenos Aires where
snow is not so common. Snow in the city of Buenos Aires could not be ruled but, but an event like July 9th 2007 is unlikely. Snow is more likely in the regions of Tandil, Mar del Plata and Bahia Blanca and could accumulate as not seen for a long time in the higher elevations of the Sierra de la Ventana. Snow is not off the cards also in Uruguay, according to some forecast models. The last time it snowed with accumulation in Uruguay was on August 1st 1991. In the capital Montevideo, the last snow event happened on June 1980. Nights will be extremely cold to the region’s patterns from Thursday to Sunday. In Rio Grande do Sul, Southern Brazil, this winter is the coldest so far since 1996.

From http://www.icecap.us, ICECAP IN THE NEWS, download the PDF about this event.