http://www.appinsys.com/globalwarming/PDO_AMO.htm

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/background/prediction.html

Leif suggested to me that I read a couple of books on the Sun. I did. It was very enlightening, let alone extremely interesting. I challenge anyone here on this blog who continues to believe that the Sun is the MAJOR driver of Earth’s temperature VARIATIONS to read any book about the Sun available at any bookstore, and then continue to state that there must be some unseen/unknown solar driver that hasn’t been discovered yet (but people here who haven’t written a book about the Sun are sure they have the inside scoop on).

Read a book. The Sun is not a good argument against AGW. It is worse than a poor one.

Pamela,

Many long range professional forecasters both post and lurk at easternwx.com and one common theme has been portrayed by many of them before. But it held more weight about a year or so ago when people were willing to talk more openly about their own research and possible relationships. “You would learn more by reading and hanging around eastern then you would in any book or research journal”.

But this also doesn’t mean that you couldn’t have been mislead about things. OTOH let’s not act like what you read in books or journals is the final conclusion, much like a pharohs demand. “Let it be said let it be written.” Because it isn’t.

And if we asked you to do this for your past sunspot Cycle forecasts you would have to stay silent, right ? Now I mentioned two years ago so do the math. How many winters have we had ? So how many forecasts do you think I could have made ?

So it’s small base but I showed promise in field that is highly lacking. When it comes to predictability from way out. Because you have to learn how to crawl before you can walk.

Here’s a link to this past winter’s discussion and some MET’s joined in while we watched everything unfold. My February call last winter was “exactly” right, to the day. Which was made more than a month out. I originally had also made a December call the year before but I canceled it about a week out. If you want that link just ask and you shall receive.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=182573

Read a book. The Sun is not a good argument against AGW. It is worse than a poor one.

tallbloke (23:52:08) :
There is a very obvious thermodynamic mechanism which will tie el nino’s to the solar cycle.
Using a big fancy word [thermodynamic] does not make it more credible [rather less if one knows a bit of thermodynamics]. And what is this ‘will tie’?

My own analysis showed that the global warming period of 1995-2007 had the following extra factors present:

El Nino’s existed during 10 of these 14 years
7 of the highest 12 ever annual AMO levels existed during this period
3 of the 5 highest ever monthly AMO levels existed during this period
5 of the 10 highest ever monthly PDO levels existed during this period

I have found that it is extreme record level of the AMO that seem to be more strongly present during this latest global warming. The warm PDO was present but not at the same record levels as AMO. The frequent El Nino presence was another major factor .These cycles are thousands of years old and clearly account for the major part of our previous and the last global warming period. Carbon dioxide levels do not follow such cycles and are unable to account for the regular decadal climate swings.

No, they don’t. It is now thought that equatorially trapped Kelvin waves provide the westerly momentum and Rossby-gravity waves provide easterly momentum to produce the QBO oscillation. That is, the QBO is produced from below by upwards traveling waves.

What I said and what you said can be related. And the debate is still up for how everything transpires from start to finish because things go round and round and feed off of each other…chicken – egg.

And I’ve made “specific time frame” calls for polar warmings periods from well out. Which most thought was impossible a couple of years ago. And I’ll beat the dead horse here to Leif….Forecast results…..this is a large part of science when building new foundations.

I disagree. There is a very obvious thermodynamic mechanism which will tie el nino’s to the solar cycle. Roughly two big un’s per cycle. It get perturbed by volcanic events, so is not a nice tight Pamela/Leif acceptable correlation, but then Leif allows the sun to be ‘messy’. Why not Earth’s climate too, which has even more variables in the mix?

No, they don’t. It is now thought that equatorially trapped Kelvin waves provide the westerly momentum and Rossby-gravity waves provide easterly momentum to produce the QBO oscillation. That is, the QBO is produced from below by upwards traveling waves.

And let’s not forget that we are talking about a relationship that has been researched for a better part of a century. So I have no idea why anybody would think that you would not have to think “outside the box” to find the pearl in the oyster.

Which I have found to be quite rare in my fifteen years of dealing with many people from within the science community……..Tunnel vision.

Solar influences on climate have been examined and studied ad infinitum. Read any recently published book on the Sun. One can also graph all the various stuff coming from the Sun against global temps and you get nothin. No correlation. At least not one to write home to mom about.

The event of an El Nino after/during a minimum is just a coincidence of a more frequent oscillation (El Nino) doing its thing compared to a less frequent oscillation (solar cycle) doing its thing. They have nothing in common in terms of a physical mechanism that links them. As far as I have read and understood, ENSO events are doing their own thing apart from a cycling Sun. What ever is driving the variability of ENSO is likely something else significant and non-solar. That is not to say that solar influences are absent. It is to say that solar influences are not major contributors to the variation.